Redskins at Eagles: Nothing Changes On New Year's Day

Washington Redskins (9-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-9)
4:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Let me make sure that everyone is aware of this. The Redskins are not in the playoffs. They have not clinched a spot yet. They have certainly not clinched the division. They may be playing their last game of the season on Sunday. While everyone is already looking forward to the postseason, the Redskins haven’t received their invitation from the NFL to the party.

With that said, the Redskins are in the perfect position to make sure they visit the playoffs for the first time since the 1999-2000 season (a season in which the last Sunday of the regular season was also New Year’s Day). That was the year the Redskins controlled the NFC East from the midway point, and clinched a playoff spot with a win at San Francisco on a Sunday night game. The following week, they were able to rest all of their starters against Miami at home, and they won anyway.

It is safe to say that the Redskins will not be resting their starters against Philadelphia this week. The Redskins are in with a win, but out with a loss (Yeah, I know they can clinch a spot even if they lose as long as Dallas loses too. But there is no way in the world the Cowboys lose to the Rams on Sunday night if the Redskins have already lost earlier in the day). But they control their own destiny, which is all a team can ask for at this time of year.

The local media is treating this game as an easy win. An easy win? There is no such thing in the NFL. Especially when you are playing a division opponent on the road. Especially when you haven’t beaten that opponent on the road since 2001. Especially when you haven’t swept that division opponent in 17 years. Especially when you have a long and tortured history like the Redskins do. Especially with your starting quarterback playing at less than 100 percent. Do I need to go on? The Redskins, and their fan base can hardly afford to look forward to next weekend, because it may never come (well, the weekend will come, but the Redskins might not be playing football during it).

In fact, I believe I even said after the San Diego game in one of my posts, that it would shock no one if the Redskins won four games in a row only to lose at Philadelphia. I expected it. I still expect it. That’s just how this team operates (Actually, that’s how they operate in recent seasons. Remember, this team has won three Super Bowls).

So the Skins will enter the Linc trying to clinch a playoff spot and trying to keep their enormous heads from bursting. Hopefully they come to play. If they do, they win. Because, if you haven’t noticed lately, the Eagles aren’t very good. And that is an understatement; almost like saying the New York Yankees spend a good deal of money.

Usually when a team tries to blame their lack of success on injuries, I get upset. Every team has injuries during the season. If one or two missing players cause you to have a crummy season, then you weren’t going to be good anyway. You don’t hear the Redskins blaming last season on Jon Jansen’s preseason injury (Except for Joe Bugel. But Good ‘Ol Buges is so senile, he doesn’t know where he is half the time. He still wonders why Joe Jacoby and Russ Grimm haven’t reported for practice yet.). But in the Eagles case, I’ll make an exception. On offense, the Eagles are only going to start four players on Sunday that were in their starting lineup on opening day. Tackle Jon Runyan, guard Shaun Andrews, tight end L.J. Smith and fullback Josh Perry are all that remain from this once proud franchise on offense. Defensively, the Eagles are better off…but not by much. They are missing four starters on that side of the ball as well and end Jevon Kearse may not play. He is listed as questionable.

Of course, the Eagles did inflict a lot of damage on themselves. First of all, they didn’t have to suspend Terrell Owens. Like the Eagles front office usually does, they overacted to Owens’ comments preceding the first game against Washington and suspended him for the season. At the time, all the ESPN talking heads blamed T.O. and said that the Eagles did the right thing. They all said that the Eagles could easily win without him. Oh really? Now that the Birds sit at 6-9, you would think that these analysts would correct themselves and realize T.O’s importance to the Eagles offense. Wrong. They blame the Eagles current struggles on…surprise, surprise: Terrell Owens. You can’t have it both ways fellas. How can T.O. currently be hurting the team? He isn’t allowed to play. He wants to play. The Eagles didn’t let him on the field. Was Owens wrong to say what he did about McNabb? Of course. Were the Eagles wrong to suspend him? I think the record speaks for itself.

I blame the Eagles current situation on upper management and head coach Andy Reid. Without T.O., McHernia became a sitting duck in the pocket. He had no one to throw to, and Brian Westbrook became a non-factor because every team came up to stop the run. McNabb was forced to throw a lot in the next two weeks against the Skins and Dallas, and took a season’s worth of shots over the course of those games. Because the Eagles decided to hastily suspend Owens, McNabb worsened his injuries and was knocked out for the season with six weeks left.

So the Eagles have gone from McNabb, Owens and Westbrook, to Mike McMahon, Reggie Brown and Ryan Moats. At least I think that’s who’s playing. No one knows for sure because these guys are nobodies. Heck, it could be Randall Cunningham, Ricky Waters and Keith Jackson out there and I don’t think anyone would notice. And here is how bad McMahon has been playing. He has thrown six touchdown passes since he has started. Three of those have been to his teammates; three of those have been to the opposing defense.

Look, I’m not going to bore you or myself by analyzing this game. The Redskins dominate this match up at basically every position on the field. I don’t think it matters if the quarterback is Brunell, Ramsey or Campbell. This should be a win. If the Giants lose on Saturday, and the division title is up for grabs, I think the Redskins cruise. I really do. But if the Giants win, and all that’s available is a wild card spot, I’m going to be very nervous. There have been a lot of distractions this week. The Redskins have had to deal with Brunell vs. Ramsey Part III, the Lavar mess, the Greg Williams coaching situation and Clinton Portis’ (or should I say “Angel Southeast Romey Rome”) posse dressing up on Thursday (On a side note, I think Portis has been hilarious all season long when he has dressed up during his press conferences. I think it’s even funnier that the media has tried to show his farce conferences as a serious sports news story. I mean, you have to be on acid to know what he is talking about. But now he has half the offense dressing up with him. I don’t know about this. Maybe they should start focusing on the game.). So with all this going on, how much time was actually spent preparing for a team that, because of injuries, there isn’t much film of?

The Eagles would like to prove the theory that misery does indeed love company and knock the Skins out of the playoff race. The Redskins cannot afford to overlook Philly. The Eagles still have healthy talent on the defensive side of the ball. If the Redskins come out with apathy, their season is going to end on Sunday. Never in this league and especially in this division, can you assume that you are going to get an easy road victory. All the Redskins have to do is show up like they have the past four weeks, and then we can start analyzing their chances to make the Super Bowl. It is time for Washington to shake out of their decade long stint with mediocrity, and announce to the NFL that they are back and they are to be reckoned with. This is the game to do it. The time is now.

Maryland Basketball: Hitting The Snooze Button

VMI Keydets (5-5, 0-0 Big South)
#14/12 Maryland Terrapins (9-2, 1-0 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD


So after another ugly game, the Maryland Terrapins continue to chug along with a 9-2 record. But getting outscored and outplayed by Delaware State in the second half should be red flag. You can’t let a 2-8 team hang around for 40 minutes. That’s what Duke does. And I know that Caner-Medley had another great game. But just check out his numbers against Gonzaga, Arkansas, Minnesota, George Washington and Boston College (you know, some real teams). Then compare those to his stats against everybody else. You’ll understand my reasons for wanting to see less of him and more of Mike Jones and James Gist.

As for the Virginia Military Institute. Yawn…another game, another Maryland win. Wake me up when the ACC season starts.

Maryland 88
VMI 63

NFL Week 17: In Through The Out Door

Week 17 means this is the last time I have to pretend to analyze all 15 games. And it’s kind of a dull week too. All season long, it looked like there would be three or four teams from each conference fighting for the last playoff spot. Instead, there are only a few meaningful games. It seems most teams are playing their way into the playoffs by waiting for other teams to lose. That’s what the Steelers have done. That’s what the Panthers are doing. Sadly, the Redskins are guilty of this also. But here are the picks, as I look to finish out the year strong. After a rough 9-6 week (8-6-1 against the spread), my records are:
Overall: 156-75 (67%)
Spread: 134-92-6
As always, please do not wager based solely on these picks.

SATURDAY:
Denver Broncos (12-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-7)(-11)
4:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
At first glance, the spread would shock most football fans. But Denver has clinched the second seed in the AFC and cannot overtake Indianapolis for the top spot. So they will be resting some, if not most, of their starters. The Fightin’ Marties surprised everyone by not even making the playoffs this season despite a glut of talent that most coaches would love to have. Bye-bye Marty.
Pick: Chargers, Broncos cover

New York Giants (10-5)(-9.5) at Oakland Raiders (4-11)
8:00 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
I’m stunned. The Giants lost on the road in embarrassing fashion last week. Who could have predicted that? With that said, I’m going to go against my own advice and take the G-men on the road this week. I’ve been saying all year long that the Giants can’t beat a mediocre team on the road. Oakland is not mediocre. They are dreadful. But it wouldn’t amaze me if the Raiders pulled out this one, especially with the Giants defense banged up like it is. I’ll certainly be rooting for the Silver and Black.
Pick: Giants, Raiders cover.

SUNDAY
Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at Indianapolis Colts (13-2)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
It’s funny. Two weeks ago, the Colts would have been favored by at least two touchdowns. Ah, what apathy will do to the Las Vegas line.
Pick: Colts

Baltimore Ravens (6-9)(-3) at Cleveland Browns (5-10)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Don’t look now, but Kyle Boller actually resembles an NFL quarterback. And in other news, Hell is reporting their first snowstorm of the season.
Pick: Ravens

Buffalo Bills (5-10)(-1) at New York Jets (3-12)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Starting for the Jets at quarterback this week: Boomer Esiason. Joe Namath is the emergency quarterback if anything should happen.
Pick: Jets

Carolina Panthers (10-5)(-4) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Oh no! What is the NFL going to do? Michael Vick won’t be in the playoffs. Should they cancel the postseason? Will anyone bother to watch? Why would they with the NFL’s most electric player sitting at home? The horror…THE HORROR…
Pick: Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
This will probably be the most entertaining game of the week. The Chiefs are still alive for a wildcard position if they win and Pittsburgh were to lose (more on the near impossibility of that in a moment). The Bengals find themselves in an interesting position. If they win, they clinch the third seed in the AFC. That would mean they most likely face the Steelers (or even these Chiefs) at home in the first round. Not much of an incentive. If they lose and New England wins, the Bengals will be the fourth seed and get a home game with Jacksonville. If I’m Cincinnati, this is the match up I would want. Plus, Kansas City at home this late in the season is nearly impossible to beat.
Pick: Chiefs

Detroit Lions (5-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Now you see why Kansas City won’t be making the playoffs
Pick: Steelers

Miami Dolphins (8-8) at New England Patriots (10-5)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Miami has been very impressive this season. I’ll say it again now (and next year as well); the Dolphins will be next year’s darkhorse team. They may even win the division. This year still belongs to New England however.
Pick: Patriots

New Orleans Saints (3-12) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
How have the Bucs not clinched a playoff spot? Even if Carolina, Washington and Dallas all win, and Tampa somehow loses to New Orleans, wouldn’t they still hold the tiebreaker over at least two of those teams? Am I missing something here? The point is moot anyway.
Pick: Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks (13-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-12)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Now I dislike Brett Farve as much as the next guy. But how can you logically pick against him in what should be the last home game of his career against a team that is resting most of their starters. You can’t. By the way, if you don’t think the NFL schedule is fixed, look at this game. You got the Seahawks, coached by Farve’s old buddy Mike Holmgren, visiting in his final game. It’s like a sitcom’s series finale where all the role players come back to pay their respects with a cameo appearance. You think this was an accident? I’m telling you; the NFL fixes their schedule better than any other league (exhibit B: the Giants getting 21 home games this season).
Pick: Packers

Tennessee Titans (4-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)(-3.5)
4:05 p.m. Alltell Stadium
The Jags finally finish their out-of-conference schedule that consisted of American, Delaware State, VMI, the 49ers and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Look at the playoffs like Jacksonville’s conference schedule, with a rude wake up call waiting for them.
Pick: Jaguars

Houston Texans (2-13)(-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers (3-12)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
All right, I really had some good analysis ready for this game. I really did. Honest. But then the 49ers went and beat St. Louis last week. Then Domanick Davis got hurt and won’t play. And now the race for the first pick is all screwed up and could come down to that strange strength of schedule (college football-esque) tiebreaker. And then I lost my train of thought and my notes and I’m just going to make a pick.
Pick: Texans

Chicago Bears (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-7)(-4)
4:15 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
…the cruise ship sailed into the sunset, and they all lived happily ever after.
Pick: Bears

St. Louis Rams (5-10) at Dallas Cowboys (9-6)(-12.5)
8:30 p.m. Texas Stadium
This game could mean everything or nothing to Dallas. They will know by the time they play if they are still in the playoff race, or if Carolina and Washington eliminated them. This game means nothing to the Rams, who were eliminated a long time ago when NASCAR crew-chief Joe Vitt took over as coach.
Pick: Cowboys, Rams cover

Tomorrow: Redskins-Eagles preview. Can the ‘Skins sweep the series? Can they make the playoffs for the first time since 1999? Is this just a dream? Will the Eagles be able to field a 53-man team? Will FOX stop showing the stupid Donovan McNabb commercials? Will I stop asking questions? Maybe…find out tomorrow.

Maryland Basketball: Cupcake City!

Delaware State Hornets (2-8, 0-0 MEAC)
#16/14 Maryland Terrapins (8-2, 1-0 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

Maryland continues to play area high school teams until the ACC schedule resumes on January 7th at Miami. It would be good to see a lot more of Parrish Brown in this game. Brown looks pretty good at point guard, and Gary is even rumored to be considering starting Brown with McCray and Strawberry in the backcourt. This would be great, except Williams would move Caner-Medley to power forward. Hopefully Gary will come to his senses. And it wouldn't hurt to see more of David Neal either. By the way, am I the only one who thinks Neal looks exactly like the actor who played Tweeder in Varsity Blues ("And Tweeder drank beer, because, well, Tweeder drinks beer")?

Not much in the way of analysis here. Delaware State made the NCAA tournament last season, but they are in rebuilding mode. Should be an easy W.

Maryland 94
Delaware State 58

One More To Go...

SANTANA CLAUS DELIVERS IN SKINS WIN

Santana Moss scores one of three touchdowns on the game

Someone check Will Allen for whiplash. He still can’t find Santana Moss. And the Giants still can’t beat a decent team on the road. And the Redskins are still very much in the thick of the playoff race.

It was touch and go right before and after halftime. The Giants got a gift touchdown on a deflected pass reception by Amani Toomer, even though replay showed that the ball hit the ground before Toomer made the catch. And after the Skins went three and out on the opening drive of the second half, the Giants marched right down the field. But Eli Manning’s inability to make a play when it counted and Jay Feely’s blocked field goal turned the game around. Five plays later, Patrick Ramsey (yes, a Patrick Ramsey sighting) found Santana Moss downfield. Moss made a brilliant leaping catch and then bitch-slapped Allen to the turf as he ran to the endzone to give the Skins a 28-17 lead.


Phillip Daniels pressures Eli Manning in 3rd quarter action

I can’t think of anything to get down about in this game. Brunell’s pick wasn’t a huge mistake. New York simply had the right play call at the right time. Moss was amazing. The blocking up front was great as Portis had another good game. Considering 70-year old Ray Brown was making his first start, Brunell and Ramsey had plenty of time to make throws downfield against a horrid Giant secondary (which will be the reason they get bounced in the first round of the playoffs). The defense attacked Manning and basically shut down Tiki Barber. Please no more of this crap about Barber being the MVP this season. If he didn’t play in New York, there would be no question the MVP would be Shaun Alexander. So was this performance perfect? No. But the Skins still won by 15. The only downer today was the Cowboys last second comeback to keep them alive for the postseason. But there wasn’t much the Redskins could do about that.

So the Skins need to keep this level of play up one more week. The game at Philadelphia is going to be much tougher than it looks. Never underestimate a division opponent, especially on the road. As long as the Skins pull it out on New Year’s Day, I really don’t care who else wins. But root for the Raiders next week anyway. Great job boys, let’s get ‘em again in eight days.


Because it's the holidays, here is some eye candy for everyone!

Giants at Redskins: Skins Need To Start Manning Up Against Giants

New York Giants (10-4) at Washington Redskins (8-6)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
Well, last Sunday sure was fun, wasn’t it? It reminded me a lot of the Redskins earlier beat down of San Francisco this season, only against a much better team with much larger stakes. I’m having trouble remembering what happened the following weekend after the 49ers game. Let’s see…oh that’s right. The Redskins were embarrassed 36-0 by New Jersey’s finest. How could I forget?

I’m sure the Redskins haven’t forgotten that late October day. Things went wrong on the first play from scrimmage. Tiki Barber busted out one of what would be many long runs and things snowballed from there. Barber finished the game with 206 yards and the Redskins finished the game with Patrick Ramsey as their quarterback. Clinton Portis carried the ball exactly four times for nine yards. The Skins only ran the ball 12 times total, and most of that was Mark Brunell running for his life.

So while many things have changed since that game, many things have stayed the same. The Redskins come into their game with the Giants off their best game of the year, and are favored by almost everyone to beat New York this time around. Which was the exact scenario the Redskins found themselves in the first meeting. But unlike game number one, this contest will be held in the friendly confines of FedEx Field and not the pig-farm infested swamp of the Meadowlands.

Also helping the Redskins is the Giants injury situation. The G-men will be without middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, outside linebacker Carlos Emmons and defensive tackle William Joseph. Roman Phifer, who was signed this week to replace Pierce, hurt his knee in practice and is listed as questionable. Their third linebacker, Reggie Torbor, is also listed as questionable with a sore calf but should be able to play, albeit significantly hampered by an injury. The Giants will also be without offensive lineman Kareem McKenzie and most likely without Luke Petitgout. This is a large amount of injuries to have amongst the front lines for both sides of the ball.

The Redskins benefit even more from the health of their defensive line. Last week was the first time since week three that Daniels, Salave’a, Griffin and Wynn were all starting. All of them are almost completely healthy going into Saturday. And the result of a healthy defensive line was staggering. After struggling most of the season to put pressure on quarterbacks without blitzing, the Redskins were able to sack Drew Bledsoe seven times last week despite only blitzing seven plays out of sixty. Five of those seven sacks were with either four or five man rushes. The Redskins also get Lavar Arrington back this week, and that should help both the run and pass rush. Add in the fact that the Skins are playing a Bledsoe-like quarterback who hates to be flushed out of the pocket, and the Giants offensive line is banged up, this could be another field day for the Redskins front four.

One other additional, and unintentional, assistance to Redskins this week were the Pro Bowl selections. The Washington defense, despite being ranked in the top 10 all season long, had no members picked for the Pro Bowl. The Giants defense, despite being ranked in the bottom half of the league, had two players selected. Now I’m not saying that Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora didn’t deserve to go (In fact, I named both of them to my Pro Bowl team in an earlier post this week). I’m just saying that if the average Giants defense had two players picked, how did the Redskins end up with none? Marcus Washington should have been a no-brainer. Shaun Springs and Sean Taylor also should have merited consideration. And the Redskins are taking this snub seriously. Joe Gibbs, Greg Williams and several players are furious. It has gotten to the point that Santana Moss and Chris Samuels, the only two players that will be going to Hawaii, have talked about boycotting the Pro Bowl altogether. I have never seen a team take the popularity contest this seriously. Look for an extremely angry Redskins defense tomorrow.

The one thing that the Giants possess that Dallas does not is a consistent and dangerous running game. This will help New York keep the Redskins honest up front. Other than Denver, there is no team in the league that blocks better for a cutback runner than the Giants. Tiki loves to stretch plays out and wait for his cutback lane to open up. So the Redskins have to play disciplined defense. And it is important that the outside linebackers, namely Chris Clemons and Warrick Holdman, and the cornerbacks make tackles. This is how the Skins were burned in the first game against New York. The defense over pursued, and Holdman, Clemons and Walt Harris didn’t make tackles when they had the chance.

If the Redskins neutralize the running game, and that is a big if to be sure, then Eli Manning is going to be in a world of trouble. Manning has struggled as of late and he tends to get rattled very easily on the road. The last three games for Manning have been downright horrible. Even though he threw for 312 yards against the Eagles, he also threw three very bad interceptions and almost cost the Giants the game. In the games against Dallas and Kansas City, Manning went a combined 29 for 63 (46%) with one touchdown and three more picks. His quarterback rating has been 27.9, 63.8 and 68.0 the last three weeks. Amazingly, the Giants won all three games. That speaks to the necessity for the Giants to have a successful running game.

So defensively, the Redskins are going to have to stop the run. With a healthy front seven, and an injured Giants line, Washington won’t need to bring eight men into the box. But they need to be disciplined and make plays when the opportunity presents itself. Springs should be able to counter Plexiglass, and Harris should matchup well on Amani Toomer. The x-factor is Jeremy Shockey, but if the Redskins can get to Manning with only five or six guys, Taylor should be able to cover him and Shockey shouldn’t make much of a difference.

Offensively, the Redskins need to attack the middle of the Giants defense. With three of their front seven players missing, this would be the week for Gibbs to force feed Portis up the middle. With Strahan and Umenyiora on the edges, the outside running game that has worked so well in recent weeks may not be able to thrive on Saturday. If Gibbs feels confident in his matchups with Strahan and Umenyiora verses Jansen and Samuels, then by all means try to attack the edge. But it probably wouldn’t be the best idea. Also, Chris Cooley on Phifer is a matchup that is clearly in favor of the Skins. So that should also be a priority. And whatever happens, do not get away from the running game. We saw what happened in the first meeting, and that can’t happen again.

The two key matchups for Washington will be Jansen against Strahan and James Thrash on whichever cornerback New York throws on him. Jansen is responsible for protecting Brunell’s blind side, and Strahan is always a handful. It will be even more difficult for Jansen without Randy Thomas next to him to help out with double-teams. Jansen and Strahan always have great battles. I would be surprised if either player dominates the other tomorrow. Meanwhile, Thrash is back from injury and finally gives the Redskins a competent number two receiver. If Moss is doubled covered or blanketed with different zones like he was in the first game, Thrash is going to need to get open for the passing game to be effective.

While I’m very hesitant to predict a score, I will offer some predictions for the game. The first is that the Giants will not score 36 points, nor will they shutout the Redskins. Tiki Barber is not going to approach 200 yards again. Look for him to have only about half that number. Portis will get many more carries than he did in the first game, and he will also approach the 100 yard mark in the contest. Finally, expect a close game. The Giants will not be able to blowout the Redskins again, and the Redskins will not be able to run over New York like they did Dallas.

If the Redskins control the trenches, or at least control the trenches when the Giants have the ball, they should win this game. Remember, Manning has exactly two wins on the road in his career. They came against horrible San Francisco and injured Philadelphia. He can’t deal with loud stadiums when he is on the road. Even in college he struggled to win games on the road. The Giants are going to have problems doing anything complicated when they have the ball. Do not expect a lot of motion and shifting before the snap. Do expect a heavy dose of Tiki to try and get the crowd out of the game. The Redskins can’t stop Tiki, but they have to contain him long enough to force Manning to start throwing the ball. If the Redskins control Tiki, that will force Eli to beat them. I like their chances in that situation.

I’m ready for this one. Here’s hoping…

Maryland Basketball: Yes, We're Still Playing

American Eagles (3-6, 0-0 Patriot) at
#16/16 Maryland Terrapins (7-2, 1-0 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

With all the excitement in town over the Redskins recent surge, it is easy to forget that the Maryland Terrapins are on the brink of starting their ACC schedule in full force. It certainly doesn’t help the Terps that they haven’t played in almost two weeks because of final exams and that they restart their season with a game against lowly American. As a result, Gary Williams has jumped up and down and tried to do cartwheels so the media will pay attention to his program. Sorry Gary, this is a Redskins town and a Redskins state. When the Skins are in the playoff race, the state of Maryland belongs to them.

Anyway, the last time the Terps were on the court they put together their finest outing of the season to beat Boston College. And despite playing well against BC, it still wasn’t a very good game. The Terps still had problems holding on to the ball. They still had problems hitting 3-pointers. They still had problems limiting second chances for the opponent. Luckily for Maryland, Boston College played worse. Aside from Craig Smith, no one from the Eagles decided to show up (By the way, how great is Smith. This kid is an animal. He’s clearly the best player in the ACC). And even though Maryland controlled the tempo and the game throughout, it came down to the final play to decide the game. Try as he might, Nik Caner-Medley couldn’t give the game away at the end.

I’m going to try and make this one quick. I’d rather talk about the Redskins today and leave the good basketball material for after football season. Maryland takes on American tonight at the Comcast Center. This is the second straight game against a team that Gary Williams used to coach and the second straight game against an opponent nicknamed the Eagles (Is Boston College still the Screaming Eagles? Or did they drop the Screaming? Someone look into this.).

After those two tidbits, the similarities end between Maryland’s challengers. American is plain awful. Jeff Jones (Virginia) has put together some great teams in Tenleytown, but not this season. The Eagles started the year with six straight losses, including an ugly 75-35 defeat against George Mason at the BB&T. But American has rebounded with three consecutive wins against Mt. St. Mary’s, Towson and Howard. And like Maryland, American hasn’t played since early last week because of exams.

As for players, American’s roster is not so American. Four players are enrolled that are from outside the States. Their key player is Andre Ingram, who had a good game last year in College Park. So far this year, Ingram is averaging 12.4 a game with 4.5 rebounds. Their Eastern European players can hit from outside if left open, but most of them have struggled to get going this season. American poses no threat underneath the glass as only 6-10 Brayden Billbie is taller than 6-5. Ingram and Billbie are the only players averaging more than 10 points a game.

Maryland should have no problem tonight. The Terps will most likely come out rusty and flat in the first half. Don’t be surprised if American even has a lead late in the first half. But the Terps should wake up in the second half to cruise to a win.

Maryland 85
American 54

NFL Week 16: Panic Button

The NFL is going college style this week with most of the games kicking off on Saturday. After a lot of tough games in week 15, week 16 offers no let up. There are quite a few games that could easily go either way. And after a dismal 9-6 week (8-7 against the spread), it’s going to be hard to get back on track. But the season record still speaks for itself:
Overall: 146-70 (67%)
Spread: 126-86-5
As always, do not use these picks as the lone basis for making wagers.

SATURDAY
Buffalo Bills (4-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-3)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I really want to see if Chad Johnson can sneak a reindeer through security for his touchdown celebration. I don’t think Johnson realizes how big those animals are. It’s not like he can hide it in his duffle bag.
As I said last week, the Bills are going to be bad for a long time. They have talented players at the skill positions, and they’re 4-10. A team with Willis McGahee, Eric Moulds, Lee Evans, a terrific secondary (really, a good defense all around) and linebacking core shouldn’t be six games under .500. But, like most teams with dismal records, the Bills failed to build a decent offensive line. At least three of their linemen should not be starting in the NFL. J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb aren’t the answer at quarterback either. Here is the Predictor’s suggestion. The Bills should take their high draft pick and trade down for two first rounders, or a lower first rounder and a couple of other picks. Something like that. With that lower first round pick, draft Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler. This is a guy who has flown under the radar his entire college career because he plays at Vandy. Most teams don’t have him going in the first, or even the second round. But the kid can really play. I predict that Cutler is going to be a star in the NFL. And he would be a perfect fit for the Bills. Buffalo should then use the rest of the picks to draft for depth. Since Buffalo is going to have plenty of money under the salary cap, the Bills should go out and sign whatever solid offensive linemen are on the market. Let Cutler sit behind Holcomb for a season, and then put him in. By 2007, the Bills should be competitive. But they shouldn’t have a chance in this game unless the Bengals start resting their first-teamers.
Pick: Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)(-7) at Cleveland Browns (5-9)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
If the Steelers weren’t in a dog fight for the final playoff spot in the AFC, I would really think about picking the upset here. The Browns have been playing well the last few weeks. But Charlie Frye is going to be in for a long week against a desperate Pittsburgh defense. I think the Steelers come out with purpose here and get the victory.
Pick: Steelers

San Diego Chargers (9-5)(PK) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I don’t know what to dp with the Chiefs. I just can’t figure this team out. Every time they begin building momentum they suffer a tough loss. And then every time I count them out, they come back and win. The Chargers are the same way (You lose to Miami and then beat Indy. What? Only Marty…).
This is obviously a must game for both teams. The Chargers could very well be 11-5 this season and still miss the playoffs (No team with 11 wins has ever missed the playoffs since the postseason was expanded to 12 teams after 1989). San Diego needs Pittsburgh to lose one of their last two games. The Chiefs are basically eliminated already, but they still hold on to some slim playoff hopes. I figure that LaDainian and Larry Johnson will cancel each other out. Drew Brees and Trent Green are essentially a toss up. Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez are equals. I guess it comes down to the defenses. If San Diego can shut down the Colts, they should be able to shut down the Chiefs.
Pick: Chargers

Tennessee Titans (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Is it too early to start talking about darkhorse teams for next season? Because both of these teams would be at the top of that list.
Pick: Dolphins

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)(-7.5) at Houston Texans (2-12)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Expect the typical Jaguars game here. They will play down to their competition for three quarters, and then pull away slightly in the fourth. Jacksonville is going to be in for a rude awakening in the playoffs.
Pick: Jaguars

Detroit Lions (4-10) at New Orleans Saints (3-11)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Alamodome in San Antonio
You know I’m not picking the Lions, or wasting more space with this game.
Pick: Saints

Dallas Cowboys (8-6) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)(-5)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
The Redskins and Panthers are working like a tag-team duo. The Skins landed some huge punches last week on Dallas, and they leave the Cowboys wobbling on their playoff feet for Carolina. The Skins have tagged out and the Panthers have entered the ring. Look out for the right hook.
Pick: Panthers

Atlanta Falcons (8-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
Michael Vick made Pro Bowl. Enough already about this guy. If you wanted proof that the Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest, look no further than this pick. I could see the case for Jake Delhomme making the Pro Bowl over Bledsoe, Brunell and Manning. But Vick? You might as well put Chris Simms on the team. Vick has done nothing this year to warrant being selected as an alternate. Heck, he has done nothing any year to be acknowledged as anything but an average NFL quarterback. The only big win he has ever engineered was that playoff win in Green Bay a few years ago. And people are starting to forget about that one. In fact, the Falcons would probably be better off without Vick. He has cost Atlanta more games this season than any other quarterback on a somewhat competitive team. You could say that the Falcons are 8-6 in spite of Vick. Even though he put up over 300 yards against Tampa Bay in the first meeting this season (one of his two good games this year), he usually struggles against the Bucs defense. It will continue here.
Pick: Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers (2-12) at St. Louis Rams (5-9)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I know I’m not the only person rooting for both the 49ers and Texans to lose. Because if they do, that would set up an exciting Week 17 meeting for the first pick in the draft. I would actually watch that game to see which team plays worse. Here’s hoping the Rams help out.
Pick: Rams, 49ers cover

Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10)(-1)
4:05 p.m. Sun Devil Stadium
Anyone else still think that Andy Reid handled the Terrell Owens situation correctly? It wouldn’t matter who was throwing the ball, Owens would have made the quarterback better just by being on the field. The Eagles would be at least 8-6 right now if Reid had just ignored Owens. And with a game in the desert against the lowly Cards, and their home finale against the Skins, the Eagles would be set up to go 10-6. I’m trying to contain my laughter, but I can’t.
Pick: Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts (13-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-2)(-7)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Oh my goodness! The Colts lost. Everyone at ESPN panic! Is there bickering in the locker room? Do the players hate Peyton Manning? Are they going to lose to New England again? Are they going to collapse? Is the sports world coming to an end?
Needless to say, the only ones worried about the Colts losing a game was the media. Clearly the Colts are still the team to beat in the NFL. But you wouldn’t know it by watching the Worldwide Leader this week. In fact, some of their “analysts” are already predicting a loss to the Patriots in the second round in the playoffs. I kid you not. The only one at ESPN with a rational thought in his head was (gag) Sean Salisbury (I can’t believe I’m actually about to praise this guy). Analyst after analyst went on ESPN this week and broke down Chargers-Colts game film. All we heard is “This is how you beat the Colts” or “The Chargers just gave a blueprint to the rest of the league” or other nonsense. Then I saw Salisbury come on yesterday and laugh at his fellow analysts. He countered with “How many other teams can do what the Chargers did to the Colts?” The answer: probably only the Chargers. And maybe the Chargers just got lucky this one time. Do you really think that San Diego could beat Indy again? In a playoff game? I don’t think so. And the Chargers may not even make the playoffs anyway. So everyone take a deep breath and relax. Salisbury and I are on top of things.
This game was supposed to be a Super Bowl preview. But the Colts are missing a lot of players this week to minor injuries, and they will likely sit most of their starters by the middle of the third quarter. This, and the fact that the Seahawks are home, are the reasons I’m picking Seattle. I probably would have picked Seattle even if the Colts were still undefeated. The Seahawks are looking for a statement game to prove to everyone else in the NFC that they are for real (I’ve been telling you that they’re for real since the beginning of the season). What better way than to beat the Colts? I just can’t wait to see if these two teams will hook back up in February with more at stake.
On a side note, the Predictor and his staff of hundreds send sincere condolences to Tony Dungy.
Pick: Seahawks

Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Denver Broncos (11-3)(-13)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Countdown to Norv getting fired: 2 weeks and ticking.
Pick: Broncos

SUNDAY
Chicago Bears (10-4)(-6.5) at Green Bay Packers (3-11)
5:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Big thanks to Chicago for beating Atlanta last week. It really helped the Redskins out. I will reward the Bears by picking them again this week (even though Farve has always had their number).
Pick: Bears

Minnesota Vikings (8-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-9)(-2.5)
8:30 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
If everything goes right on Saturday, Redskins fans are going to find themselves in a very awkward position. If Washington wins (a big if, I know), Dallas loses to Carolina and Atlanta loses to Tampa (both of those very likely), then a Ravens win over Minnesota would put the Skins in the playoffs. So Washington fans are going to have to root for Baltimore. Wow. This has certainly been a strange week. First I agree with Salisbury and now I’m advocating rooting for the Boy Genius and his Ratbirds. What’s next…me wearing a Duke jersey to work? I may be forced into rooting for Baltimore, but I don’t have to pick them.
Pick: Vikings

MONDAY
New England Patriots (9-5)(-5.5) at New York Jets (3-11)
9:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
With New England essentially locked into the number four seed in the AFC, look for the Patriots to rest their starters. So ABC’s Monday Night Football will deservedly get a proper sendoff with yet another yawner of a game.
Pick: Patriots

Three words: Giants verses Redskins. That preview will be tomorrow.

The Predictor's Pro Bowl Selections

The Pro Bowl teams are announced tomorrow. That means it is time to award players like Tom Brady with trips to Hawaii that they don't deserve. My team is going to be better than any team that is revealed tomorrow. The Pro Bowl selections are usually based more reputation and popularity than anything else. I based my picks more on statistics. I did use reputation a bit when it came to deciding positions, like offensive linemen, or to break ties between two otherwise equal candidates. I also tried to include a player from each team, but as you’ll see, that didn’t work out that well (fortunately, the NFL doesn’t have the silly MLB rule that each team must be represented). So to repeat, this is not a prediction of what the Pro Bowl teams will be. It is merely a suggestion as to what they should be.

Each team is allowed 43 players. Two of the players are coach’s choice (One special team player and one defensive player from any position. I also believe the coach can add a long snapper and a couple of other positions if he likes…the roster rules are fluid from one year to another). I picked the other 41 guys for each squad. The typical Pro Bowl break down is: 3 quarterbacks, 3 running backs, 1 fullback, 4 wide receivers, 3 offensive tackles, 3 guards, 2 centers, 2 tight ends, 3 defensive ends, 3 defensive tackles, 3 outside linebackers, 2 inside linebackers, 3 cornerbacks, 3 safeties, 1 kicker, 1 punter and 1 kick/punt returner. My starter will be the first name(s) and the backups will below him(them).
So here you go:

AFC
Quarterback: Peyton Manning (IND)
Carson Palmer (CIN), Jake Plummer (DEN)
A quarterback’s main responsibility is to win. The stats are nice, and all three of these quarterbacks have numbers. But the three best records in the AFC belong to these three quarterbacks. Tom Brady need not apply.

Running Back: LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
Edgerrin James (IND), Larry Johnson (KC)
The first two names are obvious choices. But Larry Johnson over Rudi Johnson? What gives there? Despite taking few snaps than Rudi, Larry Johnson still has more rushing yards. He is a future star in the NFL, and without him, the Chiefs would be below .500.

Fullback: Patrick Pass (NE)
A position that has virtually disappeared in the NFL is still used somewhat by Bill Belichick. Pass can catch and block, and that’s all I look for in a fullback

Wide Receivers: Chad Johnson (CIN), Marvin Harrison (IND)
Chris Chambers (MIA), Reggie Wayne (IND)
I regret not putting Rod Smith in, but it is hard to argue with the numbers all four of these guys have put up. Most surprising is Chris Chambers, since he has had Gus Frerotte (who was left off my Pro Bowl team for some reason) throwing to him all season.

Tight Ends: Antonio Gates (SD)
Tony Gonzalez (KC)
The only other tight end to consider would be Dallas Clark. This was definitely one of the easiest groups to select.

Offensive Tackles: Willie Anderson (CIN), Tarik Glenn (IND)
Matt Lepsis (DEN)
The reason that Manning and Palmer are having such great seasons is because of Anderson and Glenn. Lepsis gets the nod over Willie Roaf because Roaf missed five games this season due to injury.

Offensive Guards: Will Shields (KC), Alan Faneca (PIT)
Mike Goff (SD)
Shields and Faneca have been two of the best guards in the NFL for a long time now. They had great seasons once again in 2005.

Centers: Jeff Saturday (IND)
Tom Nalen (DEN)
Saturday is another key cog in the Colts offensive line. Nalen is a solid veteran who helps that Denver running game out.

Defensive Ends: Dwight Freeney (IND), Derrick Burgess (OAK)
Jared Allen (KC)
This was the most loaded position in the entire AFC. There were a lot of tough cuts here. Burgess leads the league in sacks. Freeney is just a beast. Allen forced seven fumbles this season along with 10 sacks. Robert Mathis, Jason Taylor, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Aaron Schobel could start in any other year.

Defensive Tackles: Orpheus Roye (CLE), John Henderson (JAX)
Montae Reagor (IND)
Roye leads all tackles in tackles. Henderson is the main man in the middle of the tough Jacksonville D. Reagor, like Freeney, draws a lot of double teams which free up Mathis.

Inside Linebackers: Jonathan Vilma (NYJ)
Mike Peterson (JAX)
Vilma leads the league in tackles. Peterson is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is as good as some safeties are in pass coverage, and he is ridiculous in run defense as well.

Outside Linebackers: Zach Thomas (MIA), Keith Bulluck (TEN)
Shawne Merriman (SD)
I know, Thomas is a middle linebacker. But he has to be on this team somewhere. The overall talent at outside linebacker is substantially less than at middle. Merriman makes some fantastic plays, but takes too many plays off. That’s why he is on the bench and not starting.

Cornerbacks: Deltha O’Neal (CIN), Champ Bailey (DEN)
Nate Clements (BUF)
O’Neal leads the league with picks (10) and in deflections (20). Bailey is still as good as ever. Clements would probably start for the NFC.

Safeties: Troy Polamalu (PIT), Bob Sanders (IND)
Erik Coleman (NYJ)
Polamalu is the most versatile safety in the league. Sanders is great as the last line of defense for Indy. Coleman is a solid player that no one really talks about, but puts up quality numbers.

Kicker: Matt Stover (BAL)
Has made 10 field goals from over 40 yards out.

Punter: Josh Miller (NE)
Not only great at pinning ball inside 20, but inside the 10 as well (nine times)

K/P Returner: Dante Hall (KC)
Who else?

Others for consideration: Drew Brees, Rudi Johnson, Hines Ward, Rod Smith, Dallas Clark, Jason Taylor, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Robert Mathis, Aaron Schobel, Donnie Edwards, London Fletcher, Ike Taylor, Dunta Robinson, Chris Hope, Sammy Knight

Team breakdown: Indianapolis (9 players), Kansas City (5), Cincinnati (4), Denver (4), San Diego (4), Jacksonville (2), Miami (2), New England (2), N.Y. Jets (2), Pittsburgh (2), Baltimore (1), Buffalo (1), Cleveland (1), Oakland (1), Tennessee (1), Houston (0)

NFC
Quarterbacks: Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
Mark Brunell (WAS), Eli Manning (NYG)
Unlike the AFC, there isn’t much to choose from here. The only snub would be Drew Bledsoe, who has tanked the last few weeks. Hasselbeck clearly has the best numbers and record in the NFC.

Running Backs: Shaun Alexander (SEA)
Tiki Barber (NYG), Clinton Portis (WAS)
Alexander is the obvious starter. Barber is a close second. Portis got in over Warrick Dunn because Portis finds the endzone more often and is more important to the Redskins offense than Dunn is to the Falcons.

Fullback: Chris Cooley (WAS)
Technically, he is a tight end or H-back. But the NFL lists him as a fullback. So he is the easy choice here. Want proof? Watch last week’s game.

Wide Receivers: Steve Smith (CAR), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Santana Moss (WAS), Anquan Boldin (ARI)
Smith and Fitzgerald are a clear-cut one and two. Boldin and Moss are a clear-cut three and four. No NFC receiver other than Torry Holt is even worth mentioning.

Tight Ends: Jeremy Shockey (NYG)
Jason Witten (DAL)
Shockey means a lot to the Giants and the development of Manning. Witten has become Bledsoe’s security blanket this year. He also gets the ball around the goal line. If Mike Vick threw to Alge Crumpler more, he would be here instead of Witten.

Offensive Tackles: Walter Jones (SEA), Jon Jansen (WAS)
Orlando Pace (STL)
Jones is the NFL’s best tackle. Period. Jansen’s worth can be proven by comparing the Washington offense last year (when he was hurt all season) to this year. Pace is good too, but not better than Jones or Jansen.

Offensive Guards: Matt Wahle (CAR), Steve Hutchinson (SEA)
Shawn Andrews (PHI)
Hutchinson and Jones make it possible for Alexander to put up the numbers he has. Wahle has been a consistent veteran for a long time. Andrews is going to be excellent for years to come.

Centers: Olin Kreutz (CHI)
Mike Flanagen (GB)
Kreutz is the run away choice for another season. Flanagen is really just an excuse to get a Packer on the team.

Defensive Ends: Michael Strahan (NYG), Adewale Ogunleye (CHI)
Osi Umenyiora (NYG)
Strahan and Ogunleye on opposite sides of the line are going to be very scary for the AFC quarterback. Umenyiora had a great season, but I have a feeling he may be a bit of a fluke.

Defensive Tackles: Pat Williams (MIN), Rod Coleman (ATL)
Rocky Bernard (SEA)
This was the weakest of all positions in the NFC. I went by numbers alone here. Williams and Coleman have been good tackles for awhile now. Bernard is a virtual unknown, but has 45 tackles (which is good for NFC DT’s) and 8.5 sacks.

Inside Linebackers: Brian Urlacher (CHI)
Lofa Tatupu (SEA)
Again, another position with an obvious choice for the starter. Tatupu narrowly beat out Shelton Quarles for Urlacher’s back-up.

Outside Linebackers: Derrick Brooks (TB), Marcus Washington (WAS)
Lance Briggs (CHI)
All three of these players are pretty much equal in importance to their teams. I figured my defense had to have a Tampa Bay starter somewhere, and Washington is the steady force for Washington. Briggs was a close third.

Cornerbacks: Ronde Barber (TB), DeAngelo Hall (ATL)
Chris Gamble (CAR)
Barber is everywhere on defense. He blitzes well. He tackles well. He comes up on run support well. He is always in position to pick off passes. Hall is almost at Barber’s level. Gamble is young, but is rarely thrown at by opposing teams.

Safeties: Mike Brown (CHI), Adrian Wilson (ARI)
Michael Boulware (SEA)
Sean Taylor is missing. He is the best safety in the NFC, but simply didn’t have a great year statistically. Brown is a close second. Other than Taylor, no safety is feared more over the middle than Brown. Wilson is anonymous in Arizona, but would be a star on any other team. Boulware has the numbers this season for Seattle.

Kicker: Neil Rackers (ARI)
There are way too many Cardinals on this team.

Punter: Mitch Berger (NOR)
About the only thing the Saints do right is punt.

K/P Returner: Koren Robinson (MIN)
Not much to choose from in the NFC. Robinson really only returns kicks, but is very dangerous.

Others to consider: Drew Bledsoe, Warrick Dunn, Torry Holt, Joey Galloway, Alge Crumpler, Randy Thomas, Aaron Kampman, Will Smith, Shaun Rogers, Cornelius Griffin, Derrick Brooks, Demorrio Williams, Antoine Winfield, Charles Tillman, Michael Lewis, Sean Taylor

Team breakdown: Seattle (7), Washington (6), Chicago (5), N.Y. Giants (5), Arizona (4), Carolina (3), Atlanta (2), Minnesota (2), Tampa Bay (2), Dallas (1), Green Bay (1), New Orleans (1), Philadelphia (1), St. Louis (1), Detroit (0), San Francisco (0)

College Bowl Predictions

I don't talk about college football much. The reason: my uncanny ability to predict college football games (I won just about every bet I placed on NCAA football during my college days) is equaled only by my contempt for the college game. Any postseason that allows teams like West Virginia and Florida State to make it to the so-called "major bowls" while teams like Alabama, Auburn and UCLA are left out is a joke. Any postseason game that features the exciting South Florida vs. NC State matchup shows that the bowl system is a complete farce. Plus, I hate the people associated with NCAA football. Any one who claims to be a big time booster, or recruiter or "insider" is one of the lowest forms of humanity. These scum are allowed to hang around the college game and pollute it. But, despite my disdain for the college game, I still follow it somewhat closely. I watch enough to know it is time for Ralph Friedgen to get canned at Maryland. Seriously Fat Man, Rutgers makes a bowl game and you can't? Get your large ass to the unemployment line.

However, like most sports fans, I am eagerly anticipating the USC-Texas gem in the Rose Bowl. I will devote a preview post to that contest alone as the game gets closer. Until then, these are the rest of my picks for the bowl games. I did you a favor and got rid of the annoying corporate names for most of these games (another reason to not watch the majority of the bowls). My winners are in bold. I guarantee I get at least...wait, how many games are there...27 not including the Rose Bowl? That means 54 teams get in? Jesus. That's almost as many teams that are now in the ACC. Anyway, I guarantee I get at least 19 of 27 correct (Yes, I'm now predicting about my own predictions). Feel free to wager accordingly. I will spare you from analysis...mainly because I can't name more than five players from half of these schools. And if you can, you need help.

New Orleans Bowl, 12/20: Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State
GMAC Bowl, 12/21: UTEP vs. Toledo
Las Vegas Bowl, 12/22: BYU vs. California
Poinsettia Bowl, 12/22: Colorado State vs. Navy
Forth Worth Bowl, 12/23: Kansas vs. Houston
Hawaii Bowl, 12/24: Nevada vs. Central Florida
Motor City Bowl, 12/26: Memphis vs. Akron
Champs Sports Bowl, 12/27: Clemson vs. Colorado
Insight Bowl, 12/27: Arizona State vs. Rutgers
MPC Computers Bowl, 12/28: Boise State vs. Boston College
Alamo Bowl, 12/28: Michigan vs. Nebraska
Emerald Bowl, 12/29: Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Holiday Bowl, 12/30: Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Music City Bowl, 12/30: Minnesota vs. Virginia
Sun Bowl, 12/30: Northwestern vs. UCLA
Independence Bowl, 12/30: South Carolina vs. Missouri
Peach Bowl, 12/30: Miami(Fla.) vs. LSU
Car Care Bowl, 12/31: South Florida vs. NC State
Liberty Bowl, 12/31: Tulsa vs. Fresno State
Houston Bowl, 12/31: TCU vs. Iowa State
Cotton Bowl, 1/2: Texas Tech vs. Alabama
Outback Bowl, 1/2: Iowa vs. Florida
Gator Bowl, 1/2: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
Capital One Bowl, 1/2: Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl, 1/2: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl, 1/2: West Virginia vs. Georgia
Orange Bowl, 1/3: Penn State vs. Florida State

Break Out The Brooms And Cue Up The Band

SKINS PLAY IT COOL-EY, BEAT DALLAS 35-7

Chris Cooley, Ladell Betts and 90,588 Redskins fans celebrate Cooley's third touchdown of the game

Once and awhile, a Sunday comes along that reaffirms your faith in the religion of football. This was one of those days.

For 60 minutes, the Washington Redskins played like they were the best team in the NFL. To make things even sweeter, they dominated the Dallas Cowboys. Yeah, those same Cowboys who have tortured the Skins for the past ten years. The 28 point win was the largest margin of victory for the Redskins in the 92 game rivalry between the two teams. The 35-7 final still didn't indicate the true Redskin command of this game. And then, to cap off the day, the out of town scoreboard flashed good news from the other hamlets in the league. Three weeks ago the Redskins were dead in the water. Now they control their fate.

This was a Joe Gibbs type game. The play-calling was nearly flawless. The domination in the first half was a result of better game planning. The offense finally opened up a little. For most of the first quarter, the Redskins tried to attack downfield. It didn’t work, but Gibbs put the threat of a deep throw in the minds of Dallas. And since the Boys already lost once to Washington on long bombs, they backed off the line. Then Gibbs turned to Clinton Portis. When the Cowboys adjusted to stop him, they went to the screen passes and underneath throws to the stormin' mormon, Chris Cooley. When Dallas brought the safties back up in the box, the Redskins went back downfield for two big plays. Throw in a couple of lucky bounces and poor Cowboy tackling, and the Skins opened up a beat down of hapless Dallas.

The defense was unbelievable as well. Greg Williams attacked Bledsoe from the first snap. Poor Drew never had a chance. Philip Daniels (who gets the Mark the Predictor Game Ball) and Cornelius Griffin lived in the Dallas backfield all night. Marcus Washington was everywhere. Walt Harris, who has been much maligned in this blog, played a great game in relief for the injured Carlos Rogers. Overall, it resulted in four turnovers, seven sacks, and a whole lot of nothing for the Dallas offense.

And because they played so well, maybe we can stop hearing about all this luck nonsense that everyone screamed about after the first win against Dallas in September. Actually, Daniels put it best after the game:
"People kept saying it was a fluke that first game. I think we showed today it was no fluke."

And as well as Washington played, Dallas looked terrible. A lot of that had to do with the Redskins gameplan. But it also had to do with poor blocking around Bledsoe and failure to cover Cooley at anytime during the game. It was great to finally see another team kill itself with penalties and turnovers and poor blocking It was great to see another team being outcoached and outplayed in every facet of the game. It was great to see another team self-destruct in front of the nation’s eyes. And because it was Dallas, it was ten times more enjoyable.

To top it off, the hatred in the rivalry is back. Going to games and hanging out among other Redskins fans the last few years left me worried. Most of the fans disgust was saved for the Eagles. When Dallas week came up, fans weren’t excited, but worried. Today, there was pure hatred in the stands at FedEx Field (which is beginning to sound a lot like RFK Stadium). This rivalry is back where it belongs. No longer can anyone doubt the importance of this game and this rivalry to the NFL. It is truly the best hate fest in the game. And I love it.

Unfortunately, the win came with a price. Pro bowl guard Randy Thomas is now out for the year. This is going to be a costly loss for the Redskins. It will hurt almost as much as losing Jon Jansen did last year. But we will save that for another day and another post (like the Redskins-Giants preview later on). This week calls for a celebration. The Dallas monkey is off the Redskins’ shoulders. The playoff picture is shaping up nicely. And the Washington Redskins are back! Sing me no sad songs this week. Just tell the maestro to cue “Hail to the Redskins” and enjoy…

Cowboys at Redskins: How Sweep It Would Be

Dallas Cowboys (8-5) at Washington Redskins (7-6)
4:15 p.m. FedEx Field
If you don’t have your ticket yet for this game, don’t bother trying to get one. Unless you make some major coin. Tickets are going for at least $1,000 online. I’m sure the scalped tickets will be even more. And what are you paying 1,000 dollars for? The weather isn’t going to be pleasant. The temperature is going to be around 35 degrees. And that’s before factoring in the nasty wind chill. But yours truly will be there anyway. I’ll send you a postcard.

So it will be in arctic temperatures that the greatest rivalry in sports writes its 92nd chapter. I really liked the 91st chapter. That passage was solid. I really enjoyed the end of the chapter, when Santana Moss caught two really long touchdown passes in the final minutes and Sean Taylor blew up some Cowgirls for a 14-13 Redskins win that sent King Liposuction and Coach Tub o’ Lard home with a foul taste in their mouths. As it turns out, that loss was really devastating to the Girls, because they would be 9-4 otherwise.

Even though the Skins won, Dallas was clearly the superior team on that mid-September night. What does that mean for this game? Nothing really. That game was so long ago it might as well have been played in 2004. I guess you could say that the Girls have extra motivation, but seeing as how both teams will be playing for their postseason lives, I doubt that revenge will factor into this decision.

What will factor into this game is Washington’s injury situation. The Skins have, not one, not two, but three cornerbacks who are injured. Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers and Walt Harris are all listed as probable, and up until Friday, none of them practiced. Springs and Harris returned to practice for Friday afternoon, but Rogers is still out. Even if Springs and Harris practiced, it doesn’t mean they will play. Joe Gibbs hates starting players who miss significant amounts of practice due to injury. And even though Meshawn and Parcells’ favorite she-male Terry Glenn are overrated, I’d hate to think what Drew Bledsoe could do to Ade Jimoh and Dimitri Patterson. That could get “Ed Reed ugly” real quickly.

Seriously, do the Redskins have anyone on defense that is healthy other than Marcus Washington? The three corners are hurt. Joe Salave’a, Cedric Killings and Cornelius Griffin are hurt. Lavar is hurt. It is unknown to everyone outside of the locker room at Redskins Park who is actually going to play and who isn’t. Gibbs is protecting that injury list like it’s a bunch of nuclear codes (which, ironically enough, are contained in a briefcase called “the football”).

The Cowgirls go into Landover with no major injury concerns. So the Skins will get the full force of Tubby’s defense, and will have to deal with Bledsoe’s offense. The Girls, all of sudden, have a dangerous two-back platoon behind Bledsoe. Julian Jones is healthy after a variety of ailments, and Marion Barber III has proved to be very able when Jones needs a breather. Throw in Meshawn, Glenn and the tight end Jason Witten, and Dallas has a lot of options that need stopping. The one weakness is the offensive line. If the corners were healthy, the Skins would most certainly blitz Bledsoe, who moves a lot like this guy here. But, without proven corners, or with beat up corners, the Skins are going to have to drop into more frequent zones. This will force the linebackers to drop back in coverage. Pressure on Bledsoe will consist mostly of the front four. And as we all know, the defensive line has been poor all season unless Griffin is completely healthy.

The most impressive thing about the Dallas offense is that they lead the NFL in time of possession. Even with all those big play, score quick options, the Girls are prone to control the ball and tempo of the game. If Dallas is able to run the ball, and the Redskins aren’t able to blitz like they want to on passing downs, then the Girls will effectively mask their deficiency in pass protection and the Redskins will be in trouble.

How will the Redskins beat Dallas you ask? With their running game. Clinton Portis is averaging 113 yards in the last five games. Two of those efforts came against pretty good defenses (Tampa and San Diego). After allowing only two 100 yard rushers in the first eight weeks, the Dallas rush defense has given up more than 125 yards on the ground in four of the last five games. The undersized and speedy front seven that Tubby loves so much is getting worn down as the season progresses. This has been Parcells downfall ever since he returned to coach New England in the mid-90’s. His defensive front is usually too small. Go back and watch Super Bowl XXXI (Packers vs. Patriots). While Desmond Howard and Brett Farve made the big plays, the Packers dominated the smaller and tattered front seven for New England. This allowed Green Bay to control the clock and keep Bledsoe and company off the field. Even in the playoffs that year, the Patriots had to win shootouts just to get to the Super Bowl.

The Redskins should win the game in the trenches. Emphasis on should. Because as Clinton’s numbers have gone up, Mark Brunell’s numbers have gone down. He has thrown only four touchdown passes in the last seven games. This wasn’t a problem because at least Brunell wasn’t throwing picks. Until last week. Look for Dallas to stack the box. Even though they were burned in September by keying in on Portis and allowing Moss to get free, their sudden failure to stop the running game with their front seven against other teams’ offensive lines makes this strategy necessary. If the Cowgirls use eight in the box, at least in the first half, it could sway Gibbs and company to alter their game plan and go to the air. And if Dallas is able to blitz out of run defense, it will be hard for Skins to get anything going. But that shouldn’t happen against the Skins offensive line. Especially if Dallas continues to play that ridiculous three-four defense.

A couple of matchups to watch when the Redskins have the ball. The first is on the offensive line. Chris Samuels will be responsible for blocking defensive end Greg Ellis. If Samuels wins the battle, then the Redskins could run over Samuels and Derrick Dockery all day. Or, the Girls will bring up their linebackers to compensate, and then the play-action to Chris Cooley becomes a dangerous weapon. If Samuels struggles to stop Ellis, then that may force Gibbs to double team him with Cooley or Robert Royal. This would open up blitzing lanes elsewhere for Dallas. And even though Dallas has a small linebacking core, they are extremely quick. If they come on the blitz in the right lane, the play is over.

The other matchup to watch will be Santana Moss on Terence Newman. This one is self-explanatory. If Dallas is forced to double Moss with Roy Williams to prevent him from burning Newman again, then that is one less player in the box to stop Portis. And if Dallas does this, Portis will have another big game.

So, what will happen on Sunday? As I said before, both teams are playing for their postseason lives, so that cancels out. The Dallas revenge factor will be canceled out or even bettered by the 91,000 burgundy-clad fans that will be in attendance. And like the crowd, the weather will favor the Redskins. So even before the kickoff, the Skins go into the game with a significant advantage.

The Redskins need to do three things to win (other than the usual things like hold on to the football, don’t commit dumb penalties, etc…). One, Samuels needs to win the aforementioned contest with Ellis. Two, both Cooley and Royal must be a factor from the tight end position. This will open up the Dallas defense to both deep passes and the running game. Three, the Redskins defensive line must get pressure on Bledsoe. In September, the Skins didn’t sack Bledsoe at all. They can’t afford to do that again. I guess a fourth goal for Washington will be making sure that they don’t get burned by the trick play. It seems every time Parcells meets Gibbs, Parcells finds ways to come up with trick plays that work.

Both teams have played a lot of close games, and are evenly matched. It should be close. Regardless of what happens, its great that Redskins-Cowboys is back in the national spotlight where it belongs.

NFL Week 15: Sorry New Jersey, The Truth Hurts

It’s Thursday, it’s pick time. Looks like I had another solid, but not outstanding week. I went 10-5 overall and 9-6 against the spread. This week is brutal. There are about six or seven matchups that could go either way. It’s a tough job, but someone’s got to dominate. On the season, my records are:
Overall: 137-64 (68%)
Spread: 118-78-5
You could try and base wagers on other people’s picks, but considering my exceptional record, you may want to use these picks to bet. I wouldn’t recommend it though.

SATURDAY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4) vs. New England Patriots (8-5)(-4.5)
1:30 p.m. Gillette Stadium
For only the second time in NFL history, a regular season game features the last four Super Bowl winners (In case you forgot, Tampa won Super Bowl XXXVII. That’s ok. No one remembers that game). In some ways, the Patriots still resemble those past teams. Tom Brady’s still the quarterback. Bill Belichick is still the coach. New England still plays the ultimate team game. The rest of the AFC East is still awful. But in other ways, the Patriots look nothing like their so-called “dynasty” teams. How many of those teams would have lost 41-17 at home? Meanwhile, the Bucs continue to trick people into thinking that they can actually win a playoff game. I’ll admit it, the win last week over Carolina was impressive. But I watched most of that game and found nothing remarkable about Tampa, despite the fact that they won. Their offense is sluggish. Their defense is good, but it isn’t the best in the league, or even best in the conference (Chicago). So why are we taking this team seriously?
Pick: Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at New York Giants (9-4)(-3)
5:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
And this, my friends, is where the Giants’ season turns southward. First of all, it is their 21st and final home game of the season. Which means they are going to have to clinch a playoff spot…*cue suspenseful music*…ON THE ROAD. Secondly, they simply aren’t a very good team. For every blue clad New Jersey resident who wants to point to their victories over the Redskins and Cowboys as reasons 1 and 2 as to why this team is not only good, but also a Super Bowl contender, I offer the rebuttal. Their loss to Minnesota is the prosecution’s exhibit A. The embarrassment last week to Philadelphia, a team that is almost desperate enough to get Ron Jaworski back in uniform, is exhibit B. Or how about their fiasco in Seattle as exhibit C? Don’t forget exhibit D; the blowout that they were on the wrong end of back in San Diego. Like Tampa Bay, this is a team that reeks of disappointment (not to me, but to their putrid fan base). Plus, I like Dick Vermeil, I like Larry Johnson and I like Derrick Johnson (he plays like another Derrick that used to wear a Chiefs uniform). Kansas City was one bad play away from beating the Cowboys last week, in Dallas. I think Dallas is a better team than the Giants, and the Chiefs are desperate for a win. Show me the upset!
Pick: Chiefs

Denver Broncos (10-3)(-8.5) at Buffalo Bills (4-9)
8:30 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I don’t blame Eric Moulds for a minute. I would walk out on this Buffalo team as well. The Bills are going to very bad for a very long time.
Pick: Broncos

SUNDAY
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)(-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Let me start off by saying that I have always liked Brad Johnson. But look at the teams he as beat since he took over the starting role for the injured Daunte Culpepper: Detroit (defense ranked 19th), the Giants (defense ranked 20th), Green Bay (3-10), Cleveland (defense ranked 16th), Detroit again and St. Louis (defense ranked 31st). Do any of these teams scare anyone (don’t say the Giants, we just went over them)? Now Brad is going to have to face a defense that only gives up 88 yards a game on the ground. Which means it’s going to be up to Johnson’s right arm to beat the Steelers. Sorry Brad.
Pick: Steelers

San Diego Chargers (8-5) at Indianapolis Colts (13-0)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
Wow. These are the games you thank God for football. One team is playing for history. They are trying to be the only team to ever go undefeated in a 16 game season. They have one of the most entertaining offenses the game as ever seen, and they have a defense with tons of young talent that gets after the opposition quarterback. They have a coach that is hard not to root for, and a team that is hard not to like. And the other team has Marty Schottenheimer. Haha.
Seriously, the Chargers are also a great team. But some mystifying losses have put them in a different position than the Colts. San Diego needs this game to have any hope of making the playoffs. So you have Manning-James-Harrison-Wayne on one side going for perfection, and Brees-Tomlinson-Gates on the other side fighting for their playoff lives. Grab a cold one, find your favorite chair, sit back and enjoy.
Pick: Colts

Arizona Cardinals (4-9)(-2) at Houston Texans (1-12)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Then there are games like this that make you wonder why you watch football at all.
Pick: Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)(-16)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
Are the 49ers any better off with Mike Nolan this year than they were with Dennis Erickson last year? They’re still dreadful. They’re still in the running for the number one pick. Why do we see articles about Mike Nolan turning this team around? Where is this turn around?
Pick: Jaguars

Seattle Seahawks (11-2)(-7.5) at Tennessee Titans (4-9)
1:00 p.m. Adelphia Coliseum
Boy, this one has “trap game” written all over it. The Seahawks have to travel through two time zones to play this game in the early afternoon. For a reminder on how bad they look during early 1 pm kickoffs, go back to their October 2nd game with the Redskins. If that game is later in the day, or in Seattle, there is no way Washington wins. Plus, the Seahawks just happen to have a big game next week with some team from Indianapolis. I hear they have a pretty good squad this year. I won’t pick it, but don’t be surprised if the Titans squeak out a win.
Pick: Seahawks, Titans cover

New York Jets (3-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-7)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Let me talk about Gus Frerotte again, and I swear this will be the last time (or at least until next week). Despite head-bangin’ Gus, the Dolphins offense is still ranked a respectable 15th. What is wrong with the NFL this season?
Pick: Dolphins

Carolina Panthers (9-4)(-9) at New Orleans Saints (3-10)
1:00 p.m. Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La
Going back to that Carolina-Tampa game last week, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a 9-4 team play that badly in such a big game before. The Panthers looked terrible. Here were their first five drives of the game: 3 plays and 8 yards, 6 plays and 2 yards, 5 plays and 5 yards, 5 plays and 21 yards and 8 plays and 35 yards. And it seemed to be an accident if the Panthers gained more than a few yards on any given play. On one carry, DeShaun Foster actually had a hole to run through and was so surprised, that he quickly tripped over an empty field to tackle himself. I still like this team in the playoffs, but they got to win here. They’re making me look bad.
Pick: Panthers

Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
If Randall Cunningham comes back to play QB for the Eagles, and Flipper Anderson comes back to play WR for the Rams, then maybe I’ll watch. Actually…no, I wouldn’t even watch then.
Pick: Rams

Cincinnati Bengals (10-3)(-7.5) at Detroit Lions (4-9)
4:05 p.m. Ford Field
Matt Millen should look at Cincinnati and take notes on how to turn around a franchise. Well, at least take notes on the last three seasons. Don’t pay any attention to 1991-2002. Pretend that didn’t happen.
Pick: Bengals

Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Oakland Raiders (4-9)(-3)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
Charlie Frye looked incredible last week against Cincy. If he can play like that consistently, and can get decent blocking, the Browns may not be that far off from respectability again.
Pick: Raiders

Atlanta Falcons (8-5) at Chicago Bears (9-4)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Soldier Field
A game featuring two teams that have solid records despite my belief that both of them would be better off with their backup quarterbacks in the game. As I said Monday, we saw the real Bears team last week against Pittsburgh. If they make the playoffs, look for that kind of performance from Chicago. Fortunately for Chicago, Atlanta’s defense can’t compare to the Steelers.
Pick: Bears

MONDAY
Green Bay Packers (3-10) at Baltimore Ravens (4-9)(-3.5)
9:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
This game is on a Monday night? Will John Madden even bother to show up? Will anyone watch? Weren’t these teams supposed to be Super Bowl contenders? So…many…sarcastic things…to say…about…crappy teams…and their…obnoxious fans…
Pick: Packers

By Saturday, I should have my Redskins preview up. Iit's not a big game or anything. They're just playing Dallas. You know, typical game...

Off The Mark: NFL Week 14 in Review

KISS HIM GOODBYE!

Antonio Brown blows a kiss to his Redskin teammates as he scores the go-ahead touchdown on a 91-yard kick return.

Sure it was an ugly win. Mark Brunell didn’t play well. The offense committed too many turnovers. The defense gave up too many sustained drives. The play calling was average at best. The Giants and Cowboys both won. It wasn’t a win that left many Redskins fans feeling good about their team.

But enough with the negatives. The Redskins are back over .500. They get the aforementioned Cowboys and Giants at home the next two weeks. And there were plenty of positives to take out of yesterday’s game against Arizona. For the second straight week, Clinton Portis showed signs of being the Clinton Portis from two years ago. The offensive line gave Brunell eons to throw the ball. The defensive front four was finally able to establish some resemblance of pressure on Kurt Warner. And when it was necessary, the big name players made big time plays down the stretch. The defense bent, but didn’t break. The offense got two crucial first downs. And the Redskins escaped from the desert without committing another fourth quarter choke job.

There were obviously three big plays in the game. The first was Antonio Brown’s kick return. Brown really didn’t have to do much. The wedge was almost 10 yards wide. All he had to do is beat the kicker. But for a guy who has been cut twice this season (and rightfully so), he finally is starting to show off his talents the way he did in training camp and preseason.

The second big play was the third and one tackle made by Ade Jimoh. Over the past two seasons, no Redskin has given up more big plays and missed more tackles than Jimoh from his nickel cornerback spot. And when Jimoh found himself one-on-one with talented and physical Larry Fitzgerald in the flat after a wide receiver screen pass, there weren’t many Redskins fans that liked what they were seeing. But Jimoh hit him low and stuck him hard. Nearly a textbook tackle. Jimoh’s play set up fourth and one.

And on fourth and one, J.J. Arrington lost sight of the first down marker, and when he saw Sean Taylor coming full speed towards him, he got out of the way. Unfortunately for Arrington, the only chance to avoid getting blown up was to go down a yard short of the line of gain.

It may not have been pretty. But it was a game that the Redskins in past years would have lost, and the Redskins of a month ago would of lost. Now the Skins face their two biggest games in the last few years. Should be fun.

Elsewhere around the league:

No complaining here about the end of the Cowboys-Chiefs game. I know a lot of Skins fans accuse the league of giving the Boys generous calls. And for a moment, the defensive holding call on Kansas City on a fourth down play late in the game looked like another horrible call. But several replays showed that the KC defender was clearly mugging Jason Witten as he tried to convert the fourth and goal. We’ll see what happens this week with the refs…

Is Seattle better than Carolina? It’s hard to tell. I still want to say the Panthers are the best team in the NFC. But their crappy performance against Tampa Bay, at home, is making me think twice. On the other hand, it’s hard to tell how good Seattle really is when they keep playing Arizona and San Francisco…

Everyone saw the real Bears team this weekend. Against a decent defense, there is no way the Bears are going to score 10 points. I don’t care if Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman is their quarterback. It wouldn’t matter if Jim McMahon came back in his prime to lead this Bears team. They can’t sustain drives at all. Their defense is getting worn down because of this. I’m guaranteeing a first round loss in the playoffs…if the Bears get in. Minnesota is making up ground quickly in the North…

Why couldn’t Sage Rosenfels and Gus Frerotte play like they have the past two weeks when they were in Washington? First, Rosenfels leads his team from 21 points behind. Last week, Frerotte out dueled a Chargers offense that was completely healthy for the first time in weeks. Maybe Nick Saban knows what he’s doing after all…

Why are the Raiders starting Marcus Tuiasosopo? Is there anyone in the league who thinks this guy can actually be a starting quarterback? He started against an average Jets defense and he had both a healthy Randy Moss and Jerry Porter at his disposal. And he still only threw for 124 yards. Plus, by starting him, it causes me to have to look up and remember how to spell Tuiasosopo. Damn you Norv, screwing me even after you leave Washington…

Maryland Basketball: And BC Makes Twelve

#6/6 Boston College Eagles (6-1, 0-0) at
#21/17 Maryland Terrapins (6-2, 0-0)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Eight games into the new season, the Maryland Terrapins find themselves in the exact same predicament they did last year. Despite a 6-2 record, the Terps have yet to beat a decent opponent. Their offense goes stagnant for possessions at a time. They have no established go-to scorer in the clutch. The defense can dominate a game for 30-35 minutes, but the time that they let their guard down is the time that opponents use to make their game-altering run. No one on the team can constantly hit three-pointers. No one on the team goes after loose balls. Maryland still has no clue how to beat a zone, and no clue how to run a zone on the other end. And despite the self-proclaimed “New Coach Williams”, the team still isn’t responding to the verbal abuse that is being thrown at them by Gary.

And despite all that went wrong last year, there are even more problems so far this season. Along with not being able to score against a zone defense, Maryland can no longer break pressure defenses either. They had 25 turnovers against GW’s press. That's incredible and pathetic at the same time. And it wasn’t like the Colonials press was all that great. Watching on TV, you could see plenty of holes and open passing lanes for Maryland to break pressure and get easy baskets. And they failed. So Maryland can’t beat a zone, can’t beat pressure defenses…what’s left? The only thing Maryland can consistently beat is non-pressure, man-to-man defenses. And how many teams in the ACC are going to be nice enough to play that against the Terps? The answer is zero.

It is worth mentioning again, that Nik Caner-Medley is one of the worst starting players in the ACC. How he manages to keep his role is beyond me. Strawberry is clearly showing signs of never being able to handle the point guard role. Don’t get me wrong, I love D.J., he plays with heart. But he is not going to materialize at point guard. It’s not going to happen. What’s worse is that Sterling Ledbetter is even shoddier at point. Ledbetter cannot run an offense in the ACC. He would have problems running an offense at most D-1 schools. He is horrendous. He can’t shoot. He can’t pass. He can’t drive to the hoop. And he barely plays defense. What does he do that allows him to see any minutes of playing time?

Is it all bad news? Basically. There are a few positives. Mike Jones can still light up the opposition if he feels like it (there are many times when he doesn’t show up). Chris McCray is slowly starting to find his stroke. Gist, Ibekwe and Garrison all show signs of improvement from last year on the offensive side of the ball. And, in maybe the best sign for Maryland, the team is hitting free throws. No one who has taken more than 10 free throws is hitting below 62%.

This is the Terps team we find as they get set to take on Boston College in the first ACC game for both teams. For Boston College, it is their first ACC game altogether. The conference expansion finally came to a close this year as BC became the 25th and final team to enter the conference. Seriously, is there any other school that John Swofford and company want to pull in? Let’s make another push for Notre Dame. West Virginia is nearby, why don’t we invite them? I hear James Madison has a pretty good D-1AA football team. We got to make conference football even better than it is now, so if we add JMU, we would be the only conference boasting champions in two different levels of NCAA football. Or how about USC? I’m not talking about South Carolina (Although, that wouldn’t have been a bad choice, seeing how South Carolina was a former ACC member, has had constant fights with the front offices of the SEC, and are a natural rival to Clemson. But that would have made too much sense.). I’m talking Southern Cal baby. How ‘bout that for football? I know they may not be located on the Atlantic Coast, but if Saint Louis University can move to a conference called the Atlantic-10, and the Big 10 can have eleven members, then why can’t the Trojans join the ACC? (Oh, the sarcasm is dripping today)

There are two positives to BC’s entry and expansion as a whole. First, Maryland is no longer the northern most university. Remember a few years ago, when Gary was upset about the officiating against one of North Carolina’s four schools, he compared Maryland to Alaska in terms of how the other ACC universities looked at UMD. Well, if Maryland is Alaska, I guess that makes Boston College the new Greenland. Second, the fact that there are 12 schools finally goes a long way to breaking up the gulag that was run by the North Carolina schools. Before 1990, the state of North Carolina controlled half of the conference. Now they are down to a 33% share of power. As a result, we are going to see more decisions made that are better for the entire conference, not just the teams in The Triangle. For example, the ACC tournament will now be played on a rotating basis up and down the Atlantic Seaboard, instead of in Greensboro or Charlotte every year. That is good for the conference (although it didn’t help Maryland much last year…did it)

The ramifications of expansion are going to come barreling through the Comcast Center tonight, as the Eagles are much better then anyone expected them to be two or three years ago when this ridiculous expansion business started. In fact, some (mainly me) have said that BC is the best team in the conference this season. The one-two punch of Craig Smith and Jared Dudley are going to roll over a lot of teams this season. Dudley is playing better than the All-American Smith so far. J-Dud averages almost 19 a game along with 8 boards. Smith is obviously no slouch, as he has 15.4 points and 8 rebounds a game himself. Both are dangerous near the hoop, and both can drive from the perimeter. They both have quick hands defensively that result in steals and blocked shots. And their leadership skills are through the roof. But unlike the so-called “#1” team in the nation, the Eagles are far from a two trick pony.

The reason I think the Eagles are the best team in the ACC is their point guard. Louis Hinnant is far from the best player that BC puts on the court, but he is the best and most experienced point guard in the conference. The senior doesn’t try to upstage Smith-Dudley. He gets those two the ball, and then gets out of the way. He has five assists a game, a number that would be better if the Eagles were a better shooting team. Watching him reminds me a lot of Steve Blake. A great passer, a decent defender, and a guy that when it was absolutely necessary, could hit a shot or two. Like Smith-Dudley, Hinnant is a great leader, and the Terps are going to see what they are so sorely missing at point guard tonight when Hinnant steps on the court.

Sean Marshall and Tyrese Rice compliment Hinnant very nicely in the back court. Marshall averages almost 15 a game; Rice almost 12. Rice passes well, and Marshall helps Smith-Dudley on the glass. John Oates is the only big man worth noting. He is 6-10 and has good footwork inside. But he is also a dangerous outside shooter if left open. The main man off the bench is freshman Marquez Haynes. A typical freshman, Haynes shows flashes of brilliance capped off by rookie mistakes. But he can be a play-maker if left unchecked.

If you want more names, you aren’t going to get them. Al Skinner only plays seven guys unless the game is a blowout. Gary noticed that and even mentioned it a couple of times this week…an indication to me that he is going to try and push the tempo whenever he can. And like Maryland, BC is unproven. They have only had two tough games so far. A neutral court win against Oklahoma State (who looked pretty good today against Gonzaga) and a seven-point loss to Michigan State a few days ago is all the Eagles have to look at. Their other five wins came against Dartmouth, Shawnee State, Buffalo, Drake and Sacred Heart. Not exactly murderer’s row.

Also like Maryland, the Eagles have problems holding on to the ball and forcing turnovers on the other end. This may be because they play down to the level of their competition (which I called “pulling a Maryland”) and have coasted through seven games so far. And other than Marshall, they lack a proven three-point shooter. Dudley shoots from behind the arc once in a blue moon, and Smith can’t make the shots he takes.

So the Eagles are not all that different from the Terps. The turnover ratio is not good, they have problems handling pressure defenses, and they can't shoot the three well. The major difference between the two? The combination of Smith and Dudley dwarf anything the Terps can throw at BC. If the Eagles need a basket, they have two proven and accomplished scorers. Maryland does not. The Eagles can prevent lopsided runs from happening. Maryland can not. The Eagles also have a capable point guard. The Terps only advantage lies in the depth of the bench. But when the starting five isn’t playing all that great, that doesn’t bode well for Maryland.

Don’t look for Maryland to turn the ball over more than 15 times in this one. I’m sure Gary and the boys have been working on breaking pressure and handling the rock for the past five days. Also, expect Maryland to have a decent shooting day from behind the line, as their backcourt has both a height and speed advantage over BC’s. In order for Maryland to win, the key stat that they are going to have to control (other than points obviously) is rebounds. The Terps cannot allow Smith, Dudley and Oates to get second and third chances inside. They allow that, and this game won’t be close. We cannot have a repeat of the Minnesota game. Even if they dominate the glass, and push the tempo, the Terps are going to have a hard time keeping pace with the machine-like Boston College offense.

The final factor is the crowd. I keep hearing about this “home court advantage” that Maryland is going to rudely welcome Boston College to the ACC with. What advantage? The students are quiet when they show up (if they show up) and most of the rich alumni don’t even pay attention to the game (neither do the students for that matter). If this was a few years ago, there should be a 10-point home court advantage for Maryland. Even now, there should be a 5-6 point advantage for the Terps. Unfortunately, most of the students won’t care unless BC comes out wearing blue and white uniforms that read “Duke” on the front. So no advantage in the seats, or on the court for Maryland in this one.

Boston College 79
Maryland 68