NFL Week 16: Panic Button

The NFL is going college style this week with most of the games kicking off on Saturday. After a lot of tough games in week 15, week 16 offers no let up. There are quite a few games that could easily go either way. And after a dismal 9-6 week (8-7 against the spread), it’s going to be hard to get back on track. But the season record still speaks for itself:
Overall: 146-70 (67%)
Spread: 126-86-5
As always, do not use these picks as the lone basis for making wagers.

SATURDAY
Buffalo Bills (4-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-3)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I really want to see if Chad Johnson can sneak a reindeer through security for his touchdown celebration. I don’t think Johnson realizes how big those animals are. It’s not like he can hide it in his duffle bag.
As I said last week, the Bills are going to be bad for a long time. They have talented players at the skill positions, and they’re 4-10. A team with Willis McGahee, Eric Moulds, Lee Evans, a terrific secondary (really, a good defense all around) and linebacking core shouldn’t be six games under .500. But, like most teams with dismal records, the Bills failed to build a decent offensive line. At least three of their linemen should not be starting in the NFL. J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb aren’t the answer at quarterback either. Here is the Predictor’s suggestion. The Bills should take their high draft pick and trade down for two first rounders, or a lower first rounder and a couple of other picks. Something like that. With that lower first round pick, draft Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler. This is a guy who has flown under the radar his entire college career because he plays at Vandy. Most teams don’t have him going in the first, or even the second round. But the kid can really play. I predict that Cutler is going to be a star in the NFL. And he would be a perfect fit for the Bills. Buffalo should then use the rest of the picks to draft for depth. Since Buffalo is going to have plenty of money under the salary cap, the Bills should go out and sign whatever solid offensive linemen are on the market. Let Cutler sit behind Holcomb for a season, and then put him in. By 2007, the Bills should be competitive. But they shouldn’t have a chance in this game unless the Bengals start resting their first-teamers.
Pick: Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)(-7) at Cleveland Browns (5-9)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
If the Steelers weren’t in a dog fight for the final playoff spot in the AFC, I would really think about picking the upset here. The Browns have been playing well the last few weeks. But Charlie Frye is going to be in for a long week against a desperate Pittsburgh defense. I think the Steelers come out with purpose here and get the victory.
Pick: Steelers

San Diego Chargers (9-5)(PK) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I don’t know what to dp with the Chiefs. I just can’t figure this team out. Every time they begin building momentum they suffer a tough loss. And then every time I count them out, they come back and win. The Chargers are the same way (You lose to Miami and then beat Indy. What? Only Marty…).
This is obviously a must game for both teams. The Chargers could very well be 11-5 this season and still miss the playoffs (No team with 11 wins has ever missed the playoffs since the postseason was expanded to 12 teams after 1989). San Diego needs Pittsburgh to lose one of their last two games. The Chiefs are basically eliminated already, but they still hold on to some slim playoff hopes. I figure that LaDainian and Larry Johnson will cancel each other out. Drew Brees and Trent Green are essentially a toss up. Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez are equals. I guess it comes down to the defenses. If San Diego can shut down the Colts, they should be able to shut down the Chiefs.
Pick: Chargers

Tennessee Titans (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Is it too early to start talking about darkhorse teams for next season? Because both of these teams would be at the top of that list.
Pick: Dolphins

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)(-7.5) at Houston Texans (2-12)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Expect the typical Jaguars game here. They will play down to their competition for three quarters, and then pull away slightly in the fourth. Jacksonville is going to be in for a rude awakening in the playoffs.
Pick: Jaguars

Detroit Lions (4-10) at New Orleans Saints (3-11)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Alamodome in San Antonio
You know I’m not picking the Lions, or wasting more space with this game.
Pick: Saints

Dallas Cowboys (8-6) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)(-5)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
The Redskins and Panthers are working like a tag-team duo. The Skins landed some huge punches last week on Dallas, and they leave the Cowboys wobbling on their playoff feet for Carolina. The Skins have tagged out and the Panthers have entered the ring. Look out for the right hook.
Pick: Panthers

Atlanta Falcons (8-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
Michael Vick made Pro Bowl. Enough already about this guy. If you wanted proof that the Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest, look no further than this pick. I could see the case for Jake Delhomme making the Pro Bowl over Bledsoe, Brunell and Manning. But Vick? You might as well put Chris Simms on the team. Vick has done nothing this year to warrant being selected as an alternate. Heck, he has done nothing any year to be acknowledged as anything but an average NFL quarterback. The only big win he has ever engineered was that playoff win in Green Bay a few years ago. And people are starting to forget about that one. In fact, the Falcons would probably be better off without Vick. He has cost Atlanta more games this season than any other quarterback on a somewhat competitive team. You could say that the Falcons are 8-6 in spite of Vick. Even though he put up over 300 yards against Tampa Bay in the first meeting this season (one of his two good games this year), he usually struggles against the Bucs defense. It will continue here.
Pick: Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers (2-12) at St. Louis Rams (5-9)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I know I’m not the only person rooting for both the 49ers and Texans to lose. Because if they do, that would set up an exciting Week 17 meeting for the first pick in the draft. I would actually watch that game to see which team plays worse. Here’s hoping the Rams help out.
Pick: Rams, 49ers cover

Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10)(-1)
4:05 p.m. Sun Devil Stadium
Anyone else still think that Andy Reid handled the Terrell Owens situation correctly? It wouldn’t matter who was throwing the ball, Owens would have made the quarterback better just by being on the field. The Eagles would be at least 8-6 right now if Reid had just ignored Owens. And with a game in the desert against the lowly Cards, and their home finale against the Skins, the Eagles would be set up to go 10-6. I’m trying to contain my laughter, but I can’t.
Pick: Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts (13-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-2)(-7)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Oh my goodness! The Colts lost. Everyone at ESPN panic! Is there bickering in the locker room? Do the players hate Peyton Manning? Are they going to lose to New England again? Are they going to collapse? Is the sports world coming to an end?
Needless to say, the only ones worried about the Colts losing a game was the media. Clearly the Colts are still the team to beat in the NFL. But you wouldn’t know it by watching the Worldwide Leader this week. In fact, some of their “analysts” are already predicting a loss to the Patriots in the second round in the playoffs. I kid you not. The only one at ESPN with a rational thought in his head was (gag) Sean Salisbury (I can’t believe I’m actually about to praise this guy). Analyst after analyst went on ESPN this week and broke down Chargers-Colts game film. All we heard is “This is how you beat the Colts” or “The Chargers just gave a blueprint to the rest of the league” or other nonsense. Then I saw Salisbury come on yesterday and laugh at his fellow analysts. He countered with “How many other teams can do what the Chargers did to the Colts?” The answer: probably only the Chargers. And maybe the Chargers just got lucky this one time. Do you really think that San Diego could beat Indy again? In a playoff game? I don’t think so. And the Chargers may not even make the playoffs anyway. So everyone take a deep breath and relax. Salisbury and I are on top of things.
This game was supposed to be a Super Bowl preview. But the Colts are missing a lot of players this week to minor injuries, and they will likely sit most of their starters by the middle of the third quarter. This, and the fact that the Seahawks are home, are the reasons I’m picking Seattle. I probably would have picked Seattle even if the Colts were still undefeated. The Seahawks are looking for a statement game to prove to everyone else in the NFC that they are for real (I’ve been telling you that they’re for real since the beginning of the season). What better way than to beat the Colts? I just can’t wait to see if these two teams will hook back up in February with more at stake.
On a side note, the Predictor and his staff of hundreds send sincere condolences to Tony Dungy.
Pick: Seahawks

Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Denver Broncos (11-3)(-13)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
Countdown to Norv getting fired: 2 weeks and ticking.
Pick: Broncos

SUNDAY
Chicago Bears (10-4)(-6.5) at Green Bay Packers (3-11)
5:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Big thanks to Chicago for beating Atlanta last week. It really helped the Redskins out. I will reward the Bears by picking them again this week (even though Farve has always had their number).
Pick: Bears

Minnesota Vikings (8-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-9)(-2.5)
8:30 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
If everything goes right on Saturday, Redskins fans are going to find themselves in a very awkward position. If Washington wins (a big if, I know), Dallas loses to Carolina and Atlanta loses to Tampa (both of those very likely), then a Ravens win over Minnesota would put the Skins in the playoffs. So Washington fans are going to have to root for Baltimore. Wow. This has certainly been a strange week. First I agree with Salisbury and now I’m advocating rooting for the Boy Genius and his Ratbirds. What’s next…me wearing a Duke jersey to work? I may be forced into rooting for Baltimore, but I don’t have to pick them.
Pick: Vikings

MONDAY
New England Patriots (9-5)(-5.5) at New York Jets (3-11)
9:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
With New England essentially locked into the number four seed in the AFC, look for the Patriots to rest their starters. So ABC’s Monday Night Football will deservedly get a proper sendoff with yet another yawner of a game.
Pick: Patriots

Three words: Giants verses Redskins. That preview will be tomorrow.