The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/20/06

Another Monday means another Top 25. I guess I have to start taking Villanova seriously. Anyway, after the rankings are the 65 teams that will make it into the NCAA tournament. More explanations below.

1. Connecticut (23-2), LW-1: A five-point loss on the road to another top 5 team isn’t reason to move down UConn. They’re still the best team in the country.
2. Duke (25-1), LW-2: Night in and night out, UConn is winning in the best conference in the country. Duke…not so much.
3. Villanova (21-2), LW-6: Two outstanding home wins. Still, ‘Nova lives by the three way too much and that will cost them shortly.
4. Memphis (24-2), LW-4: Tigers continue cruising to a number one tournament seed. They won’t move down unless they lose.
5. Gonzaga (22-3), LW-5: I would love to see a player other than Adam Morrison step up in conference play.
6. Texas (22-4), LW-3: The loss to Oklahoma State finally pushes the Horns below Memphis and Villanova, two teams that they have already beaten.
7. Ohio State (19-4), LW-7: Despite the loss at Wisconsin, the Buckeyes still have no bad losses and are still near the top of the Big 10. And their impressive victory over Illinois two weeks ago still sits well with me.
8. George Washington (22-1), LW-8: I’m going to start calling the eight spot the GW spot. The Colonials might as well start collecting rent here, ‘cause they aren’t moving up.
9. Illinois (22-4), LW-11: Needed large wins against Indiana and Northwestern and the Illini took care of business.
10. Pittsburgh (20-4), LW-14: How does this team keep climbing back in to the Top 10? They have no realistic shot at the Final Four.
11. Boston College (21-5), LW-15: BC may be the hottest team in the country. Since their early 0-3 start in the ACC, the Eagles have had plenty of close calls, but they keep putting W’s on the board.
12. Tennessee (19-4), LW-9: Loss on the road to Alabama not as bad as some may think. Still, does anyone really believe this team will win more than two games in the NCAA’s.
13. Washington (20-5), LW-19: The Huskies have now won four straight, the last two coming on the road.
14. North Carolina (17-6), LW-22: Why not? The Heels need to start climbing the rankings. They’re certainly better coached than the team three spots further down.
15. Florida (22-4), LW-10: This is how little faith I have in the Gators. They’re below a 17-6 ACC team. Billy Donovan’s streak of losing in the first round of the NCAA’s doesn’t appear to be in jeopardy this season.
16. Kansas (19-6), LW-20: Again, why not? They Jayhawks have won nine in a row. A win at Texas this weekend could vault them into the upper 12.
17. NC State (21-5), LW-23: Herb managed not to blow any games this week. We’ll see if he can manage a home win over UNC in a couple of days.
18. Oklahoma (17-6), LW-16: I don’t know which was worse. The loss at Colorado or the escape they pulled off at home against Iowa State.
19. Iowa (20-7), LW-18: How does the same team beat Michigan State and lose to Minnesota in the same week?
20. West Virginia (18-7), LW-12: Losses are losses. I don’t care who you play or where you play them. And the Mountain-queers have lost three of the last four.
21. UCLA (20-6), LW-13: Earlier loss to WVU at home forces me to put the Bruins below them.
22. Michigan State (19-7), LW-22: Another week goes by, and Michigan State losses another crucial Big 10 match-up.
23. Georgetown (17-7), LW-17: Like WVU, I won’t let G’town use the tough schedule as an excuse. Another loss this week and they’ll be out of the polls completely.
24. George Mason (21-5), LW-25: My prognosticating skills were shown last week when I was the only one who had the Patriots in the Top 25. Now it looks like ESPN is imitating me.
25. Northern Iowa (22-6), LW-NR: Solid win in the Bracket Buster game gets the Panthers in the rankings.

Next five in: Marquette, Nevada, LSU, California, San Diego State

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology (which was my minor in college by the way). I’m not going to bother with the seeding because it is SO subjective that no one really has any clue what the dopes at the NCAA Selection Committee do to determine who gets the last number three seed or where Bucknell is properly placed. But the conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conference. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences who are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. I simply picked the conference leaders of those smaller conferences. The rest of the conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (5): Boston College, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State
Big East (8): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big 10 (6): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac 10 (3): California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee,

Notes: I think the ACC at this point has to get five bids, and Florida State is the fifth best team record wise in the conference. Those who think that the committee is taking six from the ACC (that’s you Gary) are crazy right now. Cincinnati and Syracuse are still in the bubble region in the Big East. I think they’re both better than Seton Hall who didn’t make the cut this week. The Big 10 and Pac 10 are pretty much set unless Indiana or Arizona make some kind of run. I put Texas A&M in because four of their last five games are very winnable. I also met and know their coach Billy Gillespie who is a real nice guy. So the Aggies get bonus points for that. In the SEC, Alabama and Kentucky are still real reaches at this point. A bad loss here or there could send both out of the brackets for good. LSU, due to their conference record and victory over Tennessee, is the conference leader.

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (1): George Washington
Conference USA (3): Memphis, UAB, UTEP
Mountain West (2): Air Force, San Diego State

Notes: The only questionable call here is UTEP. Their RPI isn’t great. I still think Houston has a good chance to sneak in here if they play well down the stretch. It will also be interesting to see if Charlotte, Xavier or even La Salle make a run in the A-10 tournament.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial Athletic (2): George Mason, UNC-Wilmington
Horizon (1): Milwaukee-Wisconsin
Mid-American (1): Akron
Missouri Valley (4): Creighton, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (1): Gonzaga
Western Athletic(2): Nevada, Utah State

Notes: I’ve seen some analysts put five teams from the Valley into the tournament. I don’t think they will or should get that many. Southern Illinois is left out for now. They don’t have a quality win outside the conference and they lost their Bracket Buster game at home against Louisiana Tech. They also lost to Division II Alaska-Anchorage. Some other teams that could pop up here are South Alabama (Sun Belt) and Kent State (MAC). South Alabama will have to win their tournament to get in. They do have a realistic shot at winning it. Kent State could get an at-large birth if they reach the final of the MAC tourney.

SMALL
America East: Albany
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Pacific
Ivy: Pennsylvania
MAAC: Iona
Mid-Continent: IUPUI
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast Conference: Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Northwestern State
Southwestern: Southern U.

Notes: Bucknell will likely get into the Dance even if they lose their conference tournament. However, Davidson was undefeated in the Southern Conference last year and didn’t make the NCAA’s because they lost in the conference tourney. This week, mostly because I’m almost off the clock here at work and I’m about to go home, I simply went with the conference leaders. But Montana (Big Sky), UC Irvine (Big West), Manhattan (MAAC), and Samford (Ohio Valley) could easily make a case for being the best teams in their respective conferences. Montana and Manhattan will probably win their conference tournaments and pick up the automatic bid, which would knock out NAU and Iona respectively. The Southern Conference is really up for grabs. Davidson is technically tied with Elon and Georgia Southern. College of Charleston and Tennessee-Chattanooga also have good shots at the automatic bid come conference tourney time. Other than the Patriot, and only in the case of Bucknell losing, none of these conference have a chance for multiple bids.