Jaguars at Redskins: Growing 'Em Big In The 'Ville

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-2)
4:15 p.m. FedEx Field
I don’t really have much to say about last week’s game. The Redskins beat up on a team that they were expected to beat up on. I’ve sat here and made fun of these so-called analysts at ESPN who think the Eagles are “back” because they dominated the Texans a couple of weeks ago. So I’m not putting too much stock in a Redskins victory over Houston.

In fact, there was plenty that went on last Sunday that has me even more worried. The Redskins still didn’t get enough pressure on David Carr. This is alarming because the Texans offensive line is terrible. If the Skins can’t get pressure on Carr, who can they get pressure against? Gregg Williams went to the blitz a little more often then he had the first two weeks, but it still wasn’t enough. And there were plenty of times on third down when the Skins simply couldn’t get off the field…again. At points, it looked like the Redskins defense from the first two weeks, but they were playing such a bad team that it didn’t make a difference.

It was good to see Mark Brunell go off for 22 completions in a row. Certainly better than going 10 for 22. But almost all those passes were short and there were very few direct attacks downfield. Case in point: when a quarterback completes around 25 passes, you would expect him to have around 325 to 350 yards passing. Brunell didn’t even get to 250. Houston’s defense, like their offensive line, is terrible. Those swing passes that go for 10 yards against the Texans aren’t going to get more than four or five against anyone else. Eventually, this offense will have to take some shots downfield.

Like most people are saying, even considering the opponent, the Redskins offense looks so much better with Clinton Portis. The confidence level seems to be there in the offensive line when they know they have a running back that’s going to hit the holes and explode through. And Brunell seems much more comfortable in the pocket. Brunell knows the defense is worried about the run and that he is going to have more time to pass. We rarely saw Brunell throw off his back foot like he did several times against Dallas.

Whatever confidence the Redskins discovered last Sunday will be put to a tough test this week. They are playing, for my money, the best defense in the NFL. Better than Pittsburgh’s. Better than Seattle’s. Better than Chicago’s. The Jacksonville defense is filled with monster-sized players who all have speed and can all tackle well.

It all starts with the gigantic nose tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. These two are immovable. Stroud (6’6”) and Henderson (6’7”) combine for more than 625 pounds of flesh in the middle. No team stops the run better than Jacksonville. They are in a virtual dead-heat for second best run defense in the NFL with Seattle by allowing only 59 yards per game. Only the Ravens are better, but they’ve played three of the worst teams in the NFL, so their stats are severely inflated. The Jags have put up their numbers against Julian Jones, Willie Parker and the Colts two-headed running back group. They have a very impressive group up front.

Stroud and Henderson don’t make most of the tackles, but they occupy so many blockers, that running backs are then easy pickings for one of the most underrated players in the game: middle linebacker Mike Peterson. Peterson recorded 132 tackles last season and is well on his way to another 100+ tackle season in 2006. Only Brian Urlacher could be considered a better middle linebacker than Peterson at this point and time.

On the edges of the front seven the Jags have acquired a bunch of great role players. None of these guys are stars, but they swarm to the ball and create turnovers. On the line, ends Paul Spicer and Rob Meier are decent pass rushers but get up and down the line real well to stop the run. The outside linebackers Daryl Smith and Nick Greisen are great in pass coverage and are rarely out of position. That is why it is so hard to run against this team. There is too much bulk inside to run against and there is too much discipline outside to try to spring a sweep or a counter.

Passing against Jacksonville is also tough. First off, the fact that their two behemoths inside take up at least three blockers allow the Jags to effectively blitz only one or two players and drop at least five back into pass coverage. By consistently getting pressure with only five rushers, the Jags create the phenomenon of appearing to have more players out on the field than they actually do. Most teams require six or even seven men to get a steady pass rush. And while the quarterback may not have a lot of time, chances are that somebody is open if the defense is going to rush that many men. But Jacksonville can get instant pressure with five men, which makes it a bitch for any quarterback (especially a 36-year old) to find someone open with six men dropping back into pass coverage.

Even when the Jags can’t get pressure, their secondary is outstanding. They have Rashean Mathis at one corner position. Mathis is a 6’2” corner with blazing speed. He is taller than every wide receiver the Redskins possess. The safeties Donovan Darius and Deon Grant are also tall and physical like Mathis. They are two of the best hitters in the league, and unlike Adam Archuleta, are usually in position to make a play if the receiver somehow catches the ball. Billy Williams, the other corner, has never really impressed me and may be the one weakness on the defense. But he can tackle too. The really impressive thing about this secondary is that all four players can hit hard and can form tackle, which is rare in a secondary in this day and age.

There are even more large players on the offensive side of the ball. The Jacksonville offensive line, which isn’t great but is much better than Houston’s, has three linemen 6’5” or taller. All five linemen weigh more than 300 pounds. Byron Leftwich is one of the tallest and widest quarterbacks in the league. And they have three receivers that are at least 6’4”. And we haven’t even mentioned the running attack that now features a change of pace back for Fred Taylor in UCLA rookie Maurice Jones-Drew. I saw some his games in college and I’m not surprised his success has carried over to the NFL. This kid is legit. Most importantly for the Jaguar offense is the lack of injuries. Taylor and Leftwich seem to have annual injuries that keep them out for long periods at a time and the receiving corps, despite being one of the biggest groups in the NFL, had the reputation for being a bit fragile. But the offense is healthy and playing at full strength.

So…what to do if you’re the Washington Redskins? Offensively, the key is not to make a mistake. Do not give up sacks and do not turn the ball over. The Jaguars offense struggles at times to put together drives, and this Jacksonville team has been very opportunistic in getting points. With the exception of their first half against Indy, Jacksonville has yet to really dominate a game offensively. Which means the Redskins cannot afford to give them short fields by making dumb mistakes with the football. Field position will be everything in this ballgame.

The Redskins will be better off attacking the outside of the Jacksonville defense. It’s not a very attractive option, but it’s better than going after the Stroud-Henderson-Peterson combination in the middle. Since Al Saunders loves to run sweeps and counters and these receiver screens, that shouldn’t be a problem for the Redskins. I would really like to see the Skins continue to attack their left side – Jacksonville’s right side – against Greisen and Billy Williams. Those two players, in open space, are beatable. This seems to be the most favorable matchup for the Redskins. Make sure there are plenty of calls that have Brunell getting rid of the football quickly, because he won’t have much time to attack downfield in this game. Even if he did have time, he has an eight-inch cut on his left arm and hasn’t practiced much this week. That’s certainly a problem…you try throwing a football with four new stitches in your arm. Deep throws are likely to be out of the question.

It’s important for the Redskins to get the ball into the hands of Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El on short passes and let their speed do the rest. As quick as Jacksonville’s secondary is, they aren’t as fast as Moss and Randle El. And it is also important to spell Portis frequently with Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright. Even though Portis says he’s 100%, he clearly isn’t. And these Jacksonville boys can hit hard. Portis is going to be taking a lot of shots so he needs to be spelled as often as possible.

Defensively, the Redskins are going to have problems matching up across the board. Carlos Rogers and Kenny Wright are expected to cover Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Both Jones and Williams will have height advantages. Without Shawn Springs, the question for Gregg Williams continues to be whether or not to blitz and leave his corners by themselves, or play this soft seven-man zone and give the quarterback plenty of time to throw. For three weeks I’ve been on Williams about not blitzing nearly enough, but this may be the right week to play back a little bit. You can’t allow Leftwich to keep lobbing jump balls to Jones, Williams and Ernest Wilford all game. The corners are going to need help and the only way to do that will be to drop six or seven back. That doesn’t mean I like this crummy zone the Redskins have been playing. I would love to see some traditional Cover Two if the Redskins can play it. But the corners are going to need help with the receivers and if the soft zone is the only way the Redskins can effectively drop seven, then so be it.

This will most likely be a low scoring game. Even with all the large skill players the Jaguars have, the Redskins defense should be able to contain the run and force Leftwich to make bad decisions. Leftwich still isn’t smartest quarterback in the league and he takes plenty of unnecessary risks. The Redskins probably won’t be able to put up more than 13 points, and it will be up to the defense to play their best game of the year. I’m not so sure they have it in them. After this week, it may be time to panic.

NFL Week 4: The (E)ntirely (S)ensationalized And (P)redictable (N)etwork

Another week, another terrific set of picks. After a rough week one, I’ve reeled off two impressive Sunday’s in a row. Last week I was 11-2. That’s right…11-2. I was just a couple of Kurt Warner fumbles and the crappy play of one Tom Brady away from having a perfect week. While the goal of a spotless week remains (I was very close twice last season), I’ll have to settle for these superb numbers at the time being:
Overall: 30-13 (70%)
Vs. Spread: 25-16-2 (The Colts and Bears pushed last week)
So let’s see if I can get to 11 wins in three consecutive weeks. Chances are I will, but please don’t use the following for any serious wagering.

SUNDAY
Indianapolis Colts (3-0)(-9) vs. New York Jets (2-1)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Does anyone really believe in the Jets 2-1 record? I sure don’t. Make it 3-1 by beating the Colts, then maybe we’ll start talking.
Pick: Colts

San Diego Chargers (2-0)(-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-0)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Does anyone really believe in the Ravens 3-0 record? I sure don’t. At least this week the Ravens are playing a team that has actually won a game. The Ratbirds previous three wins have come against teams with a combined 0-8 record. The offense still looks dreadful, but it certainly helps to play the Bucs, Raiders and Browns to open up the season. Last week the Ravens needed a last second field goal to beat pitiful Cleveland…and that field goal came only after a gift interception from Charlie Frye. I don’t like the idea of picking the Sidearmer against Baltimore’s defense, but I really don’t like the idea of taking Baltimore’s offense against any decent football team.
Pick: Chargers

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-2)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The Bills are favored? I don’t know what to say except for “thank you Vegas.”
Pick: Vikings

Dallas Cowboys (1-1)(-9.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-3)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
I guess it would be pretty foolish of me to avoid talking about another Terrell Owens saga. So here it goes. I think over the course of the last 36 hours, we’ve finally seen the sports media – namely ESPN – jump the shark in terms of their obsessive and non-stop coverage over the same handful of stories. When was the last time that anyone can remember watching SportsCenter when one of their big stories didn’t consist of: Terrell Owens/Donovan McNabb, the New England Patriots, the Yankees, the Red Sox, Barry Bonds, Kobe Bryant or Notre Dame? ESPN really screwed up big time here. They completely fabricated a story about Owens attempting suicide for the lone reason of ratings. And it backfired miserably. Now ESPN is scrambling to cover their asses by citing this mystery police report that says Owens was suicidal, while at the same time, ignoring another report that says nothing about any suicide. Is it so hard to believe that a player like Owens, who has been injured a lot recently, could have taken a few too many pain pills by accident? But where’s the story in that? Where’s the intrigue? Where’s the excuse of 24-7 coverage? That’s not interesting to the idiot viewers who watch SportsCenter religiously. You know what sounds better? Suicide attempts, late night stomach pumps and a manic-depressive wide receiver. Unfortunately, none of those things actually happened. But these dopes that watch SportsCenter everyday and are hanging on every word on what happens to Owens, or what happens to Tom Brady or Derek Jeter, believe what they’re being told and keep tuning in. It has become painfully obvious to anyone not working at ESPN that this was a simple mistake by Owens. As much as I hate Owens, it is sickening to see anybody treated like this. He can’t take a dump without ESPN creating controversy over it. Did Owens have Parcells’ permission to take a crap? Did he miss practice by going to the bathroom? Did he really crap or did he just piss sitting down? Find out tonight at 6 on SportsCenter!

See, unlike ESPN, I don’t blame most of the Eagles’ problems last season on Owens, nor do I blame the current discord in Dallas on Owens now. Did T.O. play in roll in all this disharmony? Sure. But was it his fault that Donovan McNabb quit on his team with this phony hernia injury? No. Was it his fault that McNabb cried like a baby that Owens was picking on him? No. Was it his fault that Andy Reid came up with the genious idea of throwing the ball 70% of the time? No. Was it his fault that half of the Eagles defense was hurt? No. Was it his fault that ESPN spent way too much time covering every little thing that went on in Eagles camp last season? No. Was it his fault that ESPN led the in over-hyping the Eagles all pre-season when most reasonable football fans knew that the Eagles were due for a underachieving year? No. In fact, if angry Eagles fans really want to blame someone or something for their 2005 problems, maybe they should look no further than ESPN. It was Owens and McNabb that created the initial rift in camp, but it was ESPN that exploited it and drove an irreversible wedge between the two players and the Eagles locker room. ESPN, more than Andy Reid, more than T.O., more than McNabb and maybe even more than the Eagles’ injuries, was responsible for the 2005 Eagles and their failures.

Hopefully this non-suicide incident will be the one that breaks the camel’s back. Hopefully the sham reporting job done by the New York-Bostonwide leader in sports will wake people up to the fact that ESPN peaked about ten years ago, and that ESPN is no better at reporting sports than Access Hollywood is at reporting real news stories. ESPN has become a tabloid network. They sensationalize the same stories over and over again to satisfy their viewers who live in New York, Boston or root for the Cowboys, and they couldn’t give a damn about covering the rest of the country. Did you know that the Cowboys are the only team that gets its own ESPN reporter? I’ve seen Ed Werder report on Owens so much over that past year that he’s starting to look depressed. Maybe ESPN should put a suicide watch on Ed.

It’s my dream that this latest saga will start to topple ESPN. Or at the very least, it will force ESPN to take a long hard look at itself. Since there are no other comparable national sports networks, sports fans are most likely stuck tuning in to ESPN for the time being. But I urge everyone who doesn’t live within driving distance of Bristol, CT or everyone who doesn’t root for the detesting Blue Star to flood ESPN with mail or calls or whatever. Tell them you want to hear more about your team. Why should we still be hearing about the Red Sox when they were eliminated a long time ago? Let’s get rid of this dope Sports Guy, Boston-lover Peter Gammons and New York/Philly loudmouth Stephen Asshole Smith and dedicate more time and space to the Minnesota Twins, Oakland A’s and San Diego Padres (those are actual baseball teams by the way, I know ESPN forgot to mention that there are more teams out there than just the Yanks, Sox and Mets). Let’s remember that there are players in the NBA not named Kobe Bryant or LeBron James, and players in the NFL that are not named Tom Brady. Let’s hear about some real NFL news other than the repeated misfortunes of Owens and McNabb. This is a national network and it’s about time we had some national sports coverage. I’m sick of this.
Pick: Cowboys, Titans cover

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Unfortunately, I forgot to pace myself. I’ve used all the material in the above rant and I don’t know how much I have left for the rest of these games. Who to go with here? The NFL’s worst team the past three seasons or a team led by Damon Huard? Can I get a third option?
Pick: Chiefs

New Orleans Saints (3-0) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
All props to me…I not only called a Saints win last Monday night, but I called a Saints blowout win. I should get credit for two victories in my overall record for that one. The Saints suffer classic “post-big game letdown syndrome” in this one.
Pick: Panthers, Saints cover

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-1)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
The Saints were able to dominate Atlanta because of their defensive game plan. Any team that can keep Michael Vick within the tackles and contain Warrick Dunn to some degree is going to beat Atlanta. The Falcons offense won’t be able to put up enough points. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they possess a front seven that can’t stop Dunn and can’t hedge in Vick.
Pick: Falcons

Miami Dolphins (1-2)(-3.5) vs. Houston Texans (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
I think it’s safe to say that Mario Williams is well on his way to becoming a bust. Last week, on the 23-yard swing pass to Antwaan Randle El that resulted in a touchdown, Williams was so thoroughly dominated that he was blocked five yards out of bounds. Who did the blocking, you ask? Was it Jon Jansen? Was it Chris Samuels? Was it Randy Thomas? None of the above. The blocker was Mike Sellers…the fullback. The number one pick in the draft was knocked out off the field of play by the Redskins fullback. Mario can have a seat right next to Vernon Davis at the 2006 bust table.
Pick: Dolphins

Detroit Lions (0-3) vs. St. Louis Rams (2-1)(-5.5)
4:05 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
The Lions have got to be the biggest Oakland Raiders fans in the country right now. If not for Oakland, Detroit easily becomes the NFL’s biggest embarrassment. Suffice to say, I don’t think I’m going to pick either the Raiders or the Lions the entire season.
Pick: Rams

New England Patriots (2-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)(-6)
4:15 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
You gotta love the Bengals. First they shut up Joey Porter and his obnoxious backup singers. Now they get a chance to put the ESPN Patriots of New England at .500. Good times.
Pick: Bengals

Cleveland Browns (0-3)(-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-2)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
How bad are the Raiders? Vegas has them as three point underdogs at home to a winless Cleveland Browns team. On the other hand, there is no truth to the rumor that Oakland lost last Sunday to the Bye Week.
Pick: Browns

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) vs. Chicago Bears (3-0)(-3)
8:15 p.m. Solider Field
As I expected, the Bears didn’t look all that great against a good Minnesota team. Yes they won, and yes they beat a division team on the road. I’ll give them that. But if it weren’t for the Vikings playing prevent defense in the final two minutes, we’d all be talking about how bad Rex Grossman looked in the second half. He pulled an Aaron Brooks early in the fourth and decided to blindly throw off his back foot in his own endzone. It landed right in the arms of Antoine Winfield who seemed shocked that an NFL quarterback would basically hand him an interception at the five-yard line. I know the Bears defense is good, but so is Seattle’s. Grossman will most likely struggle again. Look for Matt Hasselbeck to have three interceptions to go along with three touchdown passes in the absence of Shaun Alexander.
Pick: Seahawks

MONDAY
Green Bay Packers (1-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)(-10)
8:30 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
The Eagles are back, baby! They crushed mighty Houston, suffered a temporary setback against the powerhouse Giants, then steamrolled playoff candidate San Francisco. I think if they beat Super Bowl contender Green Bay, the rest of the NFC East teams should just concede the division. That’s how good the Eagles are. Gag me…
Pick: Eagles

Bye weeks: Denver, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay

The Jaguars are better in 2006 than anyone expected...is there any chance the Skins can defend their home turf on Sunday? Come back tomorrow.

Redskins at Texans: Texas Two Step

Washington Redskins (0-2) at Houston Texans (0-2)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Obviously Gregg Williams is not a regular reader of this website. Either that, or he doesn’t listen to my advice. Fine with me, but I’m going to keep giving it to him. When you have a 35-year old statue playing quarterback with an offensive line that is average at best, you blitz him. It’s that simple. Why is this not registering with the defensive coordinator?

Yes, the offense was terrible against Dallas, and I’ll get to that in moment. The defense once again was the reason the Redskins lost. All you needed to see of the game was the sequence that took place at the end of the third quarter. Sean Taylor, who appears to be the only player willing to make tackles right now, forced a fumble by putting a textbook hit on Jason Witten. The Skins recovered the ball around the Dallas 40 with a couple of minutes left in the third and down 7 points. The offense got a first down to the 25 on the next play. The Skins were then unable to do anything on first and second down, so Mark Brunell made an ill-advised pass that was picked off at the Dallas 1-yard line by Roy Williams on third down. While the Redskins failed to convert the Witten fumble into points, it wasn’t a big deal seeing as they were still only down a touchdown and the Cowboys were pinned back at their one with over a quarter to play.

Then Gregg Williams got more conservative than Ronald Reagan. He rushed only four defenders on the next two plays as the Cowboys got all the way out to about their own 40 yard-line with help from a Redskins penalty. Like the Skins before them, Dallas did nothing on first and second down. Actually, they lost about five yards. So on 3 and about 15, Gregg Williams doesn’t blitz. In fact, he doesn’t even rush four defenders. He rushes a total of two defensive linemen. That’s it…two defensive linemen. He dropped all five secondary members into pass coverage, along with both linebackers and BOTH defensive ends. Bledsoe had at least six to seven seconds of time to throw the ball, and he ended up throwing a 10-yard pass to his running back (I believe it was Marion Barber) who ran for 10 more yards and a first down. So with Cowboys at 3 and 15 at their own 35, and the Redskins desperately needing a stop, Williams drops nine defenders and hands the Cowboys a first down. The next play resulted in a touchdown as the Cowboys completed one of the quickest and most embarrassing 99-yard drives in recent memory. How do you have a team backed up at their own 1-yard line, and fail to blitz even once on the ensuing drive? How does this happen?

Can you tell I’m a little peeved? Look, I don’t think most fans expected the Redskins to win last week. I’m one of the more optimistic Redskins fans out there and even I said last week in my preview post that the Redskins would probably lose. They didn’t match up well against Cowboys without Shawn Springs and Clinton Portis and it is damn near impossible to win two years in a row in Dallas. But I thought the game would at least be more competitive in the fourth quarter. Once the pass from Bledsoe to Terry Glenn made it 24-10 with 14:53 to go in the game, you knew it was over. There wasn’t going to be any miracle Santana Moss comeback this year. And even if the offense had somehow scored, the defense wouldn’t have been able to hold Dallas when it mattered.

I know Springs is hurt. I know that Kenny Wright and Mike Rumph aren’t very good replacements. But that doesn’t mean that you abandon the blitz to help out your corners. The Redskins defense is most effective when they are sending six or seven guys after the opposing quarterback. In fact, the best way to help out Wright and Rumph would be to rush the quarterback and force him to make bad throws. The solution to Springs’ injury isn’t to let the quarterback have all day to throw into a seven-man zone coverage. It’s not going to work. The Vikings and Cowboys continually sent their receivers over the middle, about 10 to 12 yards downfield, and just sat at the zone’s weak spots. The 40+ yard touchdown to Glenn was a result of a fluke in coverage. Those things are going to happen. The continuing failure of the defense to stop the opposition on third down and relatively long is the result of the coaching staff failing to put their best players in position to make plays.

The lack of pressure is the reason Washington's defense hasn't returned to 2005 form. In two games, because of their failure to blitz, the Redskins have a total of two sacks and one turnover. That's terrible. Pressure gets you sacks, it allows you to beat up the quarterback and forces bad offensive plays that can lead to turnovers. Or at the very least, forces the opposing offense to get of the field on third down.

As for the offense, I still don’t know what to make of it. Everybody is in a rush to blame Al Saunders and Mark Brunell. Brunell played well against the Vikings but had a terrible outing against Dallas. He had plenty of time to look long, as the Cowboys didn’t generate much of a pass rush until the fourth quarter, but Brunell seemed unsure of himself and ended up dumping the ball off. Keep in mind, this offense has yet to have a healthy Portis at their disposal. The offense centers around him. It’s like telling Phil Jackson in the 1990’s to go run his triangle offense without Michael Jordan. Ain’t gonna work. So it’s hard to blame Saunders too. The one positive on offense has been the offensive line play. Now they just need a decent back to run through some of the holes they are creating.

It seems the Redskins get to face the perfect opponent this week as they return to Texas to face Houston. We all know the Texans are bad. They’re terrible in fact. Other than Andre Johnson, who is never 100% healthy, there are no weapons on the offense what so ever. Ron Dayne - yes, that Ron Dayne - will probably be the starter at running back. Wali Lundy and Samkon Gado will also see playing time. Lundy actually looked pretty good against Philly but didn’t see much action against Indianapolis.

Since the Texans have been nothing but a losing franchise since they came into the league several seasons ago, they receive little media coverage. But the one thing everyone knows about the Texans offense is that they continue to have the worst offensive line in the league. David Carr, who can probably be an adequate NFL quarterback, never has a chance to make a big play because he usually has several defensive linemen lying on top of him. Despite facing a terrible o-line, this should not be an invitation for Gregg Williams to rush only four guys at Carr figuring that they’ll be able to get pressure. For the second week in a row, this is the perfect quarterback and perfect line for the Redskins to blitz against. Hopefully they’ll do that. Otherwise Carr, like Bledsoe and Brad Johnson, will have all day to throw. Even the Texans can put points on the board if you give their quarterback enough time.

It’s this simple. The Texans can’t run the ball. Any team that is going to feature Ron Dayne in the backfield you know can’t run the ball. They’ve only managed 178 yards on 43 carries on the ground this year. With the Redskins’ run defense as strong as ever, we should see Houston in a lot of third and long situations. THE REDSKINS MUST GET AFTER THE QUARTERBACK. Period. David Carr knows his line is terrible, has happy feet in the pocket, and should be an easy target for the Redskins defense.

Portis will be a go this week so the offense should be able to move the ball effectively against a bad defense that can’t stop the run and is only slightly better against the pass. Houston’s defensive numbers are a little bit unfair to look at since they had to play the Colts last week. Most teams won’t be able to put up 45 routinely on Houston, but their defense is still bad enough to consistently give up 21-27 points a game.

I hate to call any game in September a “must-win game”. But this is one. The Skins are facing one of the worst teams in the league. They’ve already lost one home game so they need to steal some wins on the road. Teams that start 0-2 can easily pull themselves out of that hole. Unfortunately, a 0-3 start is almost impossible to overcome. A loss to Houston would be 100 times more significant than a win. It would also be 100 times worse than a loss to Dallas. This is a game the Redskins must, and should win. Get Portis going early and blitz David Carr often and the Redskins can get on track in 2006. Otherwise, a season full of expectations may realistically end before the first weekend of October.

NFL Week 3: Joey Porter Has The I.Q. Of A 2-Year Old

Even though the Redskins aren’t picking up where they left off in 2005, my picks sure are. After a sub par 8-7 opening week, I rebounded nicely into a comfortable 11-4 mark. This week looks like another prime opportunity to improve the records, which so far look like this:
Overall: 19-11 (63%)
Vs. Spread: 17-13
As always, please do not use the following picks for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY
New York Jets (1-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-1)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I’ve been impressed by what I’ve seen from both teams so far. Despite a terrible off-season, the Bills remarkably resemble a NFL team for the first time in three year. And despite all the youth, the Jets offensive line is actually doing a great job in protecting Fragile Chad. After a big road win last week for Buffalo, the Bills are prime for a big letdown for their home-opener.
Pick: Jets

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Look, when ABC started doing this player self-introduction thing years ago, I thought it was a pretty cool idea. You get to see each individual player, his position and he gets to talk about his college. But in the second year of ABC’s live introductions, Laveranues Coles decided to give a shout out to his high school (For good reason…Florida State expelled Coles in response to his role in the Peter Warrick “free shoes” scandal but refused to suspend Warrick because he was the star at FSU. Coles refuses to acknowledge that he ever attended FSU.). Since then, the player-introduction thing has been going downhill. In the past few years the players refuse to give their names (For example: Clinton Portis famously said “You Know Me”) and have been giving shout outs to middle schools, elementary schools, pre-schools, hometowns, area codes, zip codes and God knows what else. This year, ESPN decides to have one player introduce the rest of his unit. Marcus Washington got to introduce the Redskins defense in the opening Monday Night for example. But since most NFL players can’t put together a rational sentence, this idea was doomed from the get go. Most players so far can only process three to four names at a time and have usually ended up saying “Here is the front four…the best front four in the league” or something stupid like that. Joey Porter, in all his infinite wisdom, already hit rock bottom in ESPN’s dim-witted idea. Porter, between his nonsense ramblings about his defense, decided to imitate some Howard Dean screaming bit from the otherwise hilarious Chappelle Show. I got the reference, but if it wasn’t for Mike Tirico explaining it, I’m sure that 95% of the people watching wouldn’t have. Not to mention the fact that Porter, given the chance to be a selfless teammate and talk about his entire defense, decided to once again deflect all the attention to himself and his totally retarded joke. Hey Joey, enjoy going 1-2. BEAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!
Pick: Bengals

*The Predictor Game of the Week*
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-0)(-7)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
Remember when I said that we’d quickly find out if the 2005 Jaguars were really 12-4 good or the fortunate benefactors of an easy schedule? Well, we’re starting to find out that they were pretty good. Congratulations to Jack Del Rio. He’s beaten two talented but over hyped teams and his reward is a trip to Indianapolis. While his defense has been great, Del Rio’s offense hasn’t played a complete game yet. The offense has been clutch in the second half of ballgames, but if they put another goose egg on the board in the first half in Indy, they’ll find themselves in a deep hole.
Pick: Colts

Tennessee Titans (0-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-2)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
So the Dolphins can’t lose to the Titans. They can’t go 0-3. Right? RIGHT?
Pick: Dolphins, Titans cover

Chicago Bears (2-0)(-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-0)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Before we get all worked up over the Bears, let’s remember that they’ve played Green Bay and Detroit. If those two teams combine for 10 wins it would be an accomplishment. Minnesota has beaten some real competition, but they’ve also gotten very lucky two weeks in a row. Don’t look for the Bears defense to make the same mistake that the Redskins and Panthers defenses did and allow Brad Johnson all day to throw the ball.
Pick: Bears

Carolina Panthers (0-2)(-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
One team will keep their season alive and the other will most likely be done before October. I don’t think anyone had both teams coming into this one at 0-2. This should have been the early battle for the division lead, not the division cellar.
Pick: Panthers

Green Bay Packers (0-2) vs. Detroit Lions (0-2)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Detroit, they start the 2006 season with a bang. Roy Williams is being a dumbass, Mike Williams is bitching and Charles Rogers is working out at some undisclosed location. And receiver is supposed to be one of the STRONGER parts of this team. Oh, Detroit.
Pick: Packers

Baltimore Ravens (0-2)(-6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-2)
4:05 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Like Chicago, let’s not get that excited about Baltimore either after two weeks. Unlike Chicago, the Ravens won’t even be challenged in week 3. That’s right, their opponents combined record so far is 0-6 (and will most likely be 0-9 after Sunday). Next week the Ravens host an inner-city, out of conference rivalry game against Towson.
Pick: Ravens

St. Louis Rams (1-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-1)(-4)
4:15 p.m. Cardinals Stadium
Two things were accomplished last week. The 49ers embarrassed the Rams so that they wouldn’t start 2-0 and we wouldn’t have to hear about the Rams resurgence (much like we have to hear about this mysterious Baltimore resurgence). The second thing that was accomplished last week (check next game)…
Pick: Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)(-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
4:15 p.m. Monster Park
…was the Eagles complete collapse – at home – to the Giants. You know, a Giants team with a quarterback who had won only two previous road games in his career. Look, with the Texans, 49ers and Packers on their schedule in the early going, we all know the Eagles are going to start 4-1 or even 5-2. After that, they won’t win more than two games. Their schedule won’t allow it. So can we just skip all this “Donovan McNabb is back” bullshit until the Eagles beat a real team in November? Please?
Pick: Eagles

New York Giants (1-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-0)(-4)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
After bashing the Giants and Eli Manning, I guess I have to give credit to where credit is due. So here it goes…boy that Seahawks defense looks really good! Once they get Matt Hasselbeck going, they’ll be unstoppable bay-bee!
Pick: Seahawks

Denver Broncos (1-1) vs. New England Patriots (2-0)(-6.5)
8:15 p.m. Gillette Field
Last season, after the Redskins started 2-0, Peter King and his buddies at Sports Illustrated felt it necessary to deem the 2005 Redskins as the worst 2-0 team of all-time. They said the same thing after the Redskins started 3-0. Well as stupid and worthless as that moniker is (better to be a bad 2-0 team than a good 0-2 team), I think we found a new winner in the worst 2-0 team of all-time: The 2006 New England Patriots! They got a gift win at home against a bad Buffalo team. Then they almost pulled a Philadelphia and choked away a 24-point lead to a bad Jets team. I’m sure that Jake Plummer will somehow find a way to hand New England another one.
Pick: Patriots

MONDAY
Atlanta Falcons (2-0)(-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-0)
8:30 p.m. The New Orleans Superdome
This is a must watch game. How can anyone root against New Orleans? Even I, one of the more cynical and sarcastic people you’ll ever meet, have to root for the Saints. Other than the Skins (and who knows how long they’ll be in contention…not much longer at this rate), the Saints have become my favorite team. They’ve got exciting young players, a smart coach and with the hurricane storyline, they’re impossible to root against. They need to win this game. And I know that I haven’t picked the Falcons to win yet this season, and I realize that Atlanta is probably a better team, but this game has all the makings of a Saints blowout victory.
Pick: Saints

Bye Weeks: Dallas, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego

Sometime before the game, I'll post my Redskins-Texans preview. I say sometime because my people are celebrating their New Year this weekend and that takes priority over this thing.

Redskins at Cowboys: Fix the Blitz

Washington Redskins (0-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
8:30 p.m. Texas Stadium - Irving, TX
After only one week, the Redskins have already put themselves in between a rock and a hard place. They lost their home opener to a team that they are much better than, and in typical Redskins fashion, fretted away several chances to win the game. But you already knew that. I’m here to examine why that happened.

It was popular in the D.C. media this past week to blast Al Saunders and the redzone offense. Yes, the redzone offense was abysmal. To get inside the 10-yard line and only score one touchdown is unacceptable. But the offense moved the ball. Mark Brunell looked sharp. The offensive line pass blocked rather well. And despite having Clinton Portis at well under 100%, the offense still managed 16 points and ended up about even in time of possession.

And yes, it was popular to bash John Hall as well. People c’mon…he missed a 48-yard field goal. Anything over 40 is hardly a chip shot. Does Hall stink? Yes. Is he unreliable? Yes. Will he cost the Skins a couple of games this season? Most likely. But to expect any kicker in this league to consistently nail 48-yard field goals with 10 seconds to go is a little much.

The real problem, and only Mike Wilbon hinted at this during the past week, was the defense. The defense could not get off the field. Minnesota was 9 for 17 in third down conversions, and should have been 12 or 13 for 17 had Troy Williamson not dropped several passes.

Even the analysts who correctly told you that the defense was truly to blame haven’t really told you why they struggled. Some have blamed the absence of Shawn Springs as a reason the Skins couldn’t stop Brad Johnson on third and longs. And I’m sure his injury had something to do with it. The real reason was Gregg Williams and the play calling. The Vikings threw the ball 30 times. Gregg Williams sent more than five rushers at Johnson on only four occasions. In my game preview, I said that when blitzing Johnson, you had to be careful not to overdo it. He’s a smart quarterback and he recognizes blitzes very well. However, when I said not to overdo it, I didn’t mean completely abandon the blitz. I didn’t mean give Johnson the entire evening to throw into soft zone coverage. I didn’t mean allowing Johnson to be able to scan the field two or three times on obvious passing situations. I simply meant that the Skins should have disguised their blitzes and not sent the house after Johnson on every play. I didn’t mean refuse to send the blitz on any play.

There are two explanations for the lack of blitzing. Either Williams went temporarily insane before the game and forgot that his front four aren’t exactly the best group of pass rushers in league (And for people who scoff at this explanation, remember that Williams went through this strange non-blitzing phase last year in losses to Oakland and San Diego). The other explanation is that Williams felt so uncomfortable with Springs’ replacements that he was hesitant to leave any member of his secondary one-on-one with the “vaunted” Vikings receiving corps and instead played a soft six or seven man zone. This zone approach backfired as the Redskins defensive line couldn’t get near Johnson and allowed Williamson to find the zone’s weakness over the middle of the field time and time again.

The soft zone is great when the opposing offense has a 3rd and 20, or the defense has linebackers who are excellent in pass coverage. When the Redskins have Warrick Holdman trying to guard Williamson or Jermaine Wiggins, the zone isn’t going to work most of the time. Plus, Adam Archuleta looks completely lost. It seems that he has two roles on every play: the first is to be out of position and the second is to talk to Carlos Rogers after the play so Rogers can tell him what he did wrong.

The only way to help out a beat-up secondary is to get pressure on the quarterback. And the only way the Redskins are going to do that is if they blitz. The front four does an outstanding job against the run, but with the exception of Andre Carter, they can’t pressure the quarterback straight up. This strategy problem needs to be fixed right now.

Speaking of teams with problems…how ‘bout them Cowboys? They looked great on Sunday against Jacksonville. And by great, I mean completely lethargic and apathetic. They looked like a team that just didn’t care that they blew a 10-point first quarter lead to an opponent they should have put away easily. Hopefully now everyone who has been over-hyping the Cowboys see why they are going to struggle this season. The offensive line is simply not good enough to give Julius Jones room to run and certainly not good enough to protect Drew Bledsoe. And it’s not like Bledsoe can be a carbon copy of Brad Johnson. Bledsoe, as it’s been known for a long time, holds on to the ball too long and forces passes instead of throwing the ball away. When he was in his prime, holding the ball for that extra split second was the reason he was so good. He was willing to take the hit to deliver the 30-yard pass down the sideline. Now, he’s holding on to the football way too long and he’s playing behind a bad pass-blocking unit.

So on Sunday night, in the NFL’s best rivalry, one of the lesser offensive lines will try to stop one of the lesser pass-rushing defensive lines in the battle for which side is more pathetic. Can the Boys offensive line finally stop someone and give Bledsoe enough time to hold on to the ball and throw an interception? Or can the Skins front four get pressure on Bledsoe and make him force throws over the middle, where Adam Archuleta will most likely be out of position and Terrell Owens will be wide open? Oh, the battle of strength has begun!


Santana Moss beating the Cowboys secondary like a rented mule.

Seriously though, if the Redskins give Bledsoe the kind of time that Johnson had, he will pick them apart. Just in case you haven’t heard, Bledsoe’s receivers are much better than Johnson’s. You were aware that Owens now plays for Dallas, right? I can’t remember if the media has talked about that much. Just in case Owens is covered or has another nicely timed blowup that sends him to the sideline, Dallas still has Terry Glenn and Jason Witten to throw to. So if the Redskins sit in that stupid zone defense again, the Cowboys are going to put up at least 30 points. However, if the Redskins do what Jacksonville did, which is stop the Dallas running game early and force the Cowboys to become one-dimensional, then there will plenty of obvious passing situations that will allow Washington to put pressure on Bledsoe and force him to make bad decisions. You know, situations that the Vikings found themselves in against the Skins this past Monday. Only this time, someone should slap some sense into Williams and tell him to release the hounds against the Drew Bledsoe Memorial Statue.

Offensively, the Redskins should be able to put up 17-21 points against Dallas…which should be enough. Although Dallas’ defense is better than Minnesota’s, the Skins will most likely feature a more run-oriented attack. Hopefully this whole Clinton Portis mess will be sorted out quickly. Even without Portis, Ladell Betts should now be healthy after going into last week’s game with various injuries. And if I had to bet, I still think Portis will suite up and see considerable playing time. So unlike last week when the Redskins totaled 266 yards without a ground game, the Redskins should be a bit more balanced in week 2. And would it kill Saunders to run up the middle once awhile. Someone tell Al that he no longer has Priest Holmes in his backfield to run sweeps all day. And also tell him that he can’t run that receiver bubble screen pass 10 times a game. Eventually, a corner is going to jump that route and it’s going to be six points heading in the other direction.

Unlike most Redskins-Cowboys matchups, both offensives should have an advantage on Sunday. Without facing blitzes and without pressure, Bledsoe will have a field day. And as long as Brunell is healthy and the offense stays balanced, the Redskins should be able to get some big pass plays against Terence Newman and Roy Williams. Ol’ Roy can hit, but he can’t cover. Remember what happened in week 2 last season. Roy is still looking for Santana Moss.

Somehow I have a feeling that the Skins defense will be aggressive for the first half while the offense jumps on Dallas early. But then I see Williams becoming conservative and allowing the Cowboys back into the game. This one should be close, and it should come down to the last five minutes. I really hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see the Skins winning in Dallas two years in a row. The real season starts next week in Houston as Washington will mostly likely have to start digging themselves out of a 0-2 hole.

NFL Week 2: Taking The Points

As I was expecting, last week’s picks weren’t too kind to me. It takes a couple of weeks to really gauge what the season is going to look like. So that 8-7 overall record wasn’t terrible. The 7-8 record against the spread doesn’t look great either, but there are still 16 weeks to recover. I guarantee you, by the end of October, I’ll be so far over .500 that my record may start to resemble the 2001 Seattle Mariners. Anyway, I’ll try to do a little better this week. It won't be easy against the spread because Las Vegas decided to have more double-digit point spreads than I've ever seen before in one week. As always, I alert you to the fact that these picks are merely the inane ramblings of some dope with a webpage and should not be used for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY
Oakland Raiders (0-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-0)(-11)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
One team wins 27-0 and the other team loses 27-0. Chances that this game ends up 54-0? Anyway, I’m hesitant to take the Ravens minus 11 because their offense is unlikely to put up 11 points from week to week. But did anyone actually see the Raiders last Monday? That may have been one of the worst performances from an NFL team in decades.
Pick: Ravens

Houston Texans (0-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-0)(-13)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
Houston looked impressive against the Eagles in the first half. Until they realized that they were the Texans. The Colts running game scares me a little…as does another large point spread. This is probably one of the large point spreads that will hold.
Pick: Colts

Cleveland Browns (0-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I actually watched quite a bit of the Browns-Saints game last week and the Browns looked terrible against a below average team. Their offense struggled in the redzone, their defense couldn’t get off the field…hey, sounds like a certain Washington area team that we’ll talk about tomorrow.
Pick: Bengals, Browns cover

Buffalo Bills (0-1) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-1)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
So did Buffalo look good last week, or is New England just over hyped? Bet on the latter. Look for the Dolphins to get past an embarrassing loss to Charlie Batch.
Pick: Dolphins

Detroit Lions (0-1) vs. Chicago Bears (1-0)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
After playing Green Bay in Week 1, it looks like the first game for the Bears against a NFL team will be next week against Minnesota.
Pick: Bears

Carolina Panthers (0-1)(-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
I saw none of the Panthers-Falcons game last week, but apparently the Panthers looked pretty bad. Is missing Steve Smith, a wide receiver, that important? Did the Falcons do a really good job of preparation? Are the Panthers simply overrated? Give me one more week to answer those questions.
Pick: Vikings

New York Giants (0-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Eli Manning on the road? No thank you. Hope the Giants fans enjoy going 0-4.
Pick: Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-0)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
So last week, the Bucs looked terrible, losing at home by 27 and failing to score a point. The Falcons, from the looks of the highlights, played very well on the road – in the division no less – and won by 14. So this should be the lock of the week, right? Show me the upset!
Pick: Buccaneers

New Orleans Saints (1-0)(-1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-1)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
When was the last time the Packers were underdogs at home for two straight weeks this early in the season? And this time, they’re down against the Saints. It isn’t like Seattle or Indy is visiting. I just love watching this happen to Brett Favre. Just love it.
Pick: Saints

St. Louis Rams (1-0)(-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (0-1)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
Ah, the joys of playing in the NFC West. Only in this division could the Rams possibly start 2-0.
Pick: Rams

*The Predictor Game of the Week*
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-0)(-6.5)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
My favorite team to watch last season (Seattle) takes on what is quickly becoming my favorite team to watch this season (Arizona). With all the accolades being thrown towards the Cards after last week’s game, everyone has to keep in mind they played San Francisco, at home and only won by 7 in a very close game. Facing Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander is much different than Alex Smith and Frank Gore. The Cardinals aren’t ready for the next step quite yet.
Pick: Seahawks

New England Patriots (1-0)(-6) vs. New York Jets (1-0)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Patriots get to take a page from the Bears schedule and face two fringe NFL teams in a row to ease into 2006. Let’s hope for their fans sake that this game goes a little better than the near-disaster against the Bills.
Pick: Patriots

Tennessee Titans (0-1) vs. San Diego Chargers (1-0)(-12)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
For once, Marty Schottenheimer actually made rational coaching decisions last week. Realizing that his quarterback could barely cut it in the pre-expansion ACC, he only let Sidearm Rivers throw the ball 11 times in a 27-0 win. If Marty continues to be smart and lucky, and just continues to ride LaDainian Tomlinson, then maybe the Chargers can win in spite of having Rivers under center. It doesn’t hurt to play the Raiders and Titans to open the season though.
Pick: Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) vs. Denver Broncos (0-1)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium
So…what idiot had the Chiefs going 10-6? That would be me. On the other hand, I did guarantee a Jake Plummer-Jay Cutler quarterback controversy as early as Week 1. As for this game, I’d rather have the Plummer-Cutler combination over Damon Huard. Up until last week, I didn’t even realize that Huard was still in the league.
Pick: Broncos, Chiefs cover

MONDAY
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)(-1.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0)
8:30 p.m. Alltel Stadium
Roethlisberger or no Roethlisberger, the Jaguars have a team of destiny feel to them. Who knew that Matt Jones could actually become a number one receiver in this league? Sure looked good last week.
Pick: Jaguars

Man, a lot to cover tomorrow. First I guess we have to talk about the millions of missed opportunities the Redskins had to blow that game open last week. Then I get to slam the defensive playcalling. Finally, I get to enjoy myself and slam the Cowboys. Oh, did I mention that it’s already Dallas week. Yep, time to gear up for sports’ best rivalry.

Vikings at Redskins: The Return Voyage

Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Redskins
7:00 p.m. FedEx Field - Landover, MD

When most teams struggled in preseason, there always seemed to be a broadcaster or analyst nearby to quickly remind the fans that “it was preseason, don’t put too much stock into it.” Now granted, the Redskins looked awful in the preseason, but where were all these analysts telling the fans not to worry? Were the Redskins that bad? Or did the sports media use the Redskins bad preseason as another opportunity to slam Dan Snyder, claim that the game had passed Joe Gibbs by and to tell us that Mark Brunell was too old? Most likely the latter. I talked about this in the spring; the sports media has so much invested in seeing Snyder fail that they can’t pass up on a couple of bad and meaningless games to take pot shots at the Redskins owner.

Furthermore, until preseason, most were picking the Redskins to win the East. Or at the very least, return to the playoffs as a wild card. But apparently the preseason went so bad, that many “experts” have the Redskins dead last in the East and finishing well under .500. In fact, Predictor personal favorite Pete Shithead Prisco has the Redskins 20th in his power rankings. Behind the Eagles, who have no offense, finished four games behind the Skins last year and looked mediocre against a bad Houston team. Behind the Chargers, who don’t have a NFL caliber quarterback. Behind the Ravens, who are a 6-10 team waiting to happen. What happened to the preseason being meaningless?

Clearly, the preseason being meaningless only applies when it’s convenient to the sports media. In other words, it only applies when the media’s darlings have a bad preseason so they can continue to hype up those teams. Like the Giants, Jets, Eagles, Cowboys, Patriots and Brett Favre. Let’s say, hypothetically, the Cowboys had a bad preseason, going 0-4. Would the media think any less of Dallas? No. They would unequivocally say that Bill Parcells would turn it around and the fact that Dallas went 0-4 was just part of Parcells’ master plan. Let’s say the Patriots went 0-4. Loudmouth no-nothings like Chris Berman would be falling all over each other trying to defend Bill Belichick.

So what’s the big difference in the Redskins now as compared to July. The answer: nothing. This is the same team that everyone had making the playoffs two months ago. The only minor change is that Clinton Portis may have a bum shoulder and might miss half of one game. Is this anything to panic about? Is this any reason to have the Redskins going 5-11? I can’t say that it is. But the Redskins’ preseason failings have given the media an excuse to stop talking about them and instead focusing much needed attention to those little covered teams like New England or Dallas.


Without ol' 2-6 who may or may not be at "93.6% capacity", the Skins will need Ladell Betts to fill in running and blocking for Mark Brunell.

On the other hand, this whole conversation would be moot if Al “2% of the Playbook” Saunders showed anything in the preseason. Obviously the Redskins offense didn’t look good in August. That’s an understatement. The Redskins offense couldn’t have beaten the Terrapins with their August showing. There are still problems and questions that need to be answered on the offensive side of the ball. However, they are the same questions I had in July. It’s nothing new, and nothing the Redskins can’t fix with one good showing.

Since I’ve been discussing the Redskins all off-season, it’s great to finally get to talk about another team. I feel like I keep bringing up the same points over and over again. So let’s move on to the actual game. The Redskins play host to the Minnesota Vikings on Monday in front of a nationally televised audience (I know that Bush, not Reggie but the President, is going to give a speech during the game. You wanna bet which one has a higher rating in the D.C. area).

Minnesota, led by Captain Smoot and his crew of miscreants, sets sail for their maiden trip on the Love Boat with coach Brad Childress. Trying to avoid the embarrassment that was brought upon the organization last season has been harder than anticipated in 2006. The Koren Robinson affair a few weeks ago was ugly and led to the release of the Vikings only proven receiver. Losing the receiver was bad enough, but the loss of team chemistry this close to the season will be further detrimental. Even though the Vikings have managed not to purify themselves in the waters of Lake Minnetonka again, they still can't keep off the police blotter.

Childress is one of nine new coaches around the league (10 if you count Art Shell). He last stop was in Philadelphia, helping Andy Reid go 6-10. This nerdy looking guy never figured out Greg Williams’ defense during his stay in Philly and I’m sure he hasn’t figured it out yet. Especially when Williams had all off-season to prepare for him.

Minnesota starts a bigger but slower version of Mark Brunell behind center in former Skins quarterback Brad Johnson. Johnson, who can still win games in this league, has certainly seen his best days a long time ago. But he’s an accurate passer. He’s also a smart passer. Johnson is still one of the best quarterbacks in recognizing and picking up blitzes. With a weakened secondary, the Redskins will probably blitz a lot to compensate. That could burn them against Johnson

Furthermore, Johnson has a decent unit in front of him to pick up Greg Williams’ schemes. Steve Hutchinson was added to help with the running game…but he’s pretty good in pass coverage too. With Bryant McKinnie to his left and center Matt Birk to his right, along with Johnson behind Birk, this will be a very tough team to blitz against. The weakness is the right side of the line, with two unimpressive young players in Artis Hicks and Marcus Johnson.

The real problem for Brad and Brad is the bare cupboard at the skilled positions. With the loss of Robinson, only Troy Williamson will scare opposing defenses. Williamson in his rookie season posted a respectable 24 catches and 372 yards. He’ll put up better numbers this year as the number one receiver, but it’s not like the Redskins will be facing Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith out there. Other than Williamson, the Vikings employ NFL castoffs Travis Taylor and Marcus Robinson.

Chester Taylor gets the start at running back. Taylor has never been the featured back in any offense in his four year career. He is a NFL-caliber backup running back. Nothing more, nothing less. The improved left side of the line will help him, but only to a point. The Vikings were only 27th in rushing last season, and they won’t improve dramatically with Taylor in 2006.

Despite what a number of scouts are saying, the Vikings defense is still very weak. This was a unit that was only 21st in the NFL last year (19th against the run, 22nd against the pass). The only addition to the defense is outside linebacker Ben Leber, who’s a nobody. Second-year end Kenechi Udeze returns from knee surgery that sidelined him most of 2005. If Udeze performs at his highest potential, that’s another change in the Vikings defense that will benefit them.

For the Redskins on offense, with the question at running back, it is important that they utilize Antwaan Randle-El in the slot and tight end Chris Cooley. The Vikings are weak at linebacker, with undersized Napoleon Harris manning the middle. Cooley and Randle-El could have field days in the center of the gridiron matched up against Harris or one of the other linebackers.

Even without Clinton Portis (and who knows how much playing time “2-6” is going to get), the Skins should be able to attack most of the Vikings line and linebacking corps on the ground. Only Pat Williams is a proven run-stopper on Minnesota’s front seven. Running and passes over the middle should prove effective. First, it keeps the Vikings off-balance. Second, it allows shaky Brunell and the offense to get into a rhythm. Finally, it allows the Skins to move the ball and avoid the strength of the Vikings defense. Corners Antoine Winfield and Cap’n Smoot are a solid tandem, and will most likely shut down Santana Moss and Brandon Lloyd (or Randle-El when Lloyd lines up in the slot) for most of the night.

Assuming that Washington is sans Portis for most of the game, the Redskins should win this contest. They get a primetime game, at home, against a .500 team to open up the season. Sure, Minnesota can put more of a fight than Houston, but the offense is devoid of dangerous playmakers and the defense is susceptible to long drives. And please, no fooling around. Don’t let the Vikings hang around, because I don’t want to see the game come down to John Hall’s leg. The Redskins need to win this early game before heading to Texas for the next two weeks. If for no other reason than to silence the critics and settle down a nervous fan base.

NFL Week 1: Brotherly Love

This is where I earn my money. Time for the weekly NFL picks. Last season, including the playoffs, I went 171-83 straight up and 142-98-7 against the spread. The 171-83 record (67.3%) was better than so-called experts Chris Mortensen, Mark Schlereth, Peter King and Mike Golic. It was 18 games better than Shithead Pete Prisco and an embarrassing 42 games better than ESPN’s Sports Guy (How is this guy still employed by the New York-Bostonwide Leader in Sports? How do you finish under .500? It’s not that difficult). Anyway, let’s throw the old record out and start anew in 2006. The first few weeks are always the toughest, so bare with me until the teams settle down. As I did last year, I will not be picking Redskins games. I’d just end up picking the Skins every week and it would ruin my record. Later in the week I’ll have an individual Redskins game preview if you’re interested. If not, and your team of choice is profiled below, then enjoy. And as always, despite the rather robust 2005 record, these picks should not be used for gambling purposes of any kind.

THURSDAY
Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
8:30 p.m. Heinz Field
Charlie Batch is going to start and the Steelers are favored? I do well enough on my own making these picks, I don’t need charity from Vegas.
Pick: Dolphins

SUNDAY
Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. St. Louis Rams
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
As I said two days ago, it’s going to be an interesting fall from grace for Denver. It is only a matter of time before the Jake Plummer/Jay Cutler quarterback controversy arrives. And who knows what running back we’ll see for the Broncos. However, if you don’t think Plummer and company can carve up a terrible Rams defense, think again.
Pick: Broncos

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Adelphia Coliseum
Amazingly, two teams that will finish well below .500 will both get a chance to start 1-0, and because of their schedules, maybe even 2-0. Like the Broncos, no one has any clue who will be in Tennessee’s backfield. To make matters even more confusing, who knows who will be under center for the Titans. We could see Kerry Collins, Billy Volek or Vince Young. We know Chad Pennington will be starting for the Jets, and for that reason, the pick here is easy.
Pick: Titans

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (-9)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Last year it was 19 home games for the Giants. This year it’s an incredibly easy “first place” schedule for the Patriots. Sigh. Maybe the rest of the NFL should consider moving to Bristol so they can benefit from ESPN’s influence.
Pick: Patriots

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
The NFC’s most compelling team starts play with an interesting test at home. The Bucs really have me perplexed. I have them going 9-7, but that could just as easily be 11-5 or 5-11. In Baltimore, plans are again underway for their Super Bowl parade down Russell Street. Resident Genius Brian Billick is still in town, but instead of Kyle Boller, this year it’s Steve McNair playing the roll of “quarterback of the future”. No one has had the heart to disappoint Ravens fans by telling them that McNair is already 34.
Pick: Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
OFFENSE, OFFENSE, OFFENSE!!! As I write this, Carson Palmer is already finding Chad Johnson in the corner and Larry Johnson already has 125 yards and a couple of TD’s. First one to 40 wins!
Pick: Bengals

Seattle Seahawks (-6) vs. Detroit Lions
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
I was really hoping that Vegas would do something stupid and favor Detroit. Not to be. With Shaun Alexander going against the Lions front seven, I could be his left guard, the line could be 16, and I’d still advise you to take the Hawks and the points.
Pick: Seahawks

*The Predictor Game of the Week*
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers (-6)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Very tough game to start the season for both of these teams. Atlanta was embarrassed 44-11 in the finale last year by the Panthers, and they need to show that they’ve made up most of that 33-point difference. The Panthers need to defend their home turf in their first conference game of the year. The running game for the Panthers, and the inability to stop the running game by Atlanta is the difference late in this game.
Pick: Panthers, Falcons cover

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) vs. Houston Texans
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
The Texans should have no chance in this game. So why not make it the weekly upset special?
Pick: Texans

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
This is a great way for Cleveland and Charlie Frye to ease their way into the season. Cleveland is my darkhorse team for 2007, but they’ll take their lumps this season. While the focus, and pressure, will be on Brees and Bush, Frye and Reuben Droughns should get ample opportunity to beat up the awful Saints defense.
Pick: Browns

Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2)
4:15 p.m. Alltel Stadium
You remember how fun it was to watch the Eagles implode last year? Multiply that by 100 and that’s how enjoyable it’s going to be watching Dallas’ inevitable collapse. It starts here, as Jacksonville’s defense will probably get to Drew Bledsoe at least six times in this game.
Pick: Jaguars

Chicago Bears (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
I initially thought that both teams would be upset that their biggest rivalry game would come in week one. I wouldn’t want the Skins playing Dallas in week one. But the Bears should be happy. They get to play in Lambeau while the tundra is anything but frozen, and then don’t have to face the Packers again until the last week of the season. The line of 3.5 troubles me because I have to assume the Bears can score more than three points in order to win…and I’m not so sure they can.
Pick: Bears

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)
4:15 p.m. Cardinals Stadium
If the Cardinals want to be taken seriously, how about proving themselves right here. They open their new stadium in front of a rare sold-out crowd against a terrible division opponent. Not only should the Cards win, they should run San Francisco into the ground.
Pick: Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. New York Giants
8:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning, Manning
Pick: Manning ver. 1.0

MONDAY
San Diego Chargers (-3) vs. Oakland Raiders
10:15 p.m. McAfee Stadium
Am I really going to pick the Chargers and Phillip Rivers? It doesn’t feel right, but the alternative is Aaron Brooks and the East Bay inmates. Ugh, the side-armer starts 1-0.
Pick: Chargers

Sometime this weekend, I get you ready for the Redskins 2006 season as they welcome back some old faces and the Minnesota Vikings.

2006 NFC Preview

The NFC features two tough divisions and two that will probably be decided by October. Or not. That’s why the NFL is so great. Logic says the Bears should run away with the crummy North Division, but who knows if the Vikings or Lions have a run in them. Maybe the East and the South won’t be such bruising divisions after all. While there are a lot of powerful teams in the NFC this year, most of them are frighteningly thin. A couple of key injuries to the wrong players could turn any of the four divisions around completely. So let me offer my insight to the 2006 NFC and then offer a Super Bowl pick afterwards…only so I can look like an idiot when none of what I say comes true in four months.

EAST

1. Washington Redskins, 11-5
Last Season: 10-6, 2nd place

What, you expected something different here? Dallas or New York maybe? The truth is that no one really knows what is going to happen in this division. You could put any of the four teams at the top and any of the four teams at the bottom and you could make a logical argument for doing so (unlike, say, putting the Texans in first in the AFC South). The Redskins are the team because of the coaching. There may be no finer staff assembled at any time in NFL history. You have a Hall of Fame coach controlling everything, but the best offensive and defensive coordinator in the game calling the shots. As I stated before, the Redskins addressed their needs at receiver and defensive line, and didn’t get noticeably weaker at any position. They are thin at some positions, but do have capable backups at running back, receiver, defensive line and defensive backfield. The quarterback will be the position of focus, but with one of the best offensive lines and a multitude of weapons to choose from, Mark Brunell should have no problems. The defense may still have problems rushing the passer, but the secondary with Sean Taylor and Shawn Springs will make up for it. Plus, their schedule, when compared to other NFC teams, isn’t half bad. The Skins have all three home division games in the second-half of the season…something that will certainly play to their advantage down the stretch in what should be a tight race.
Best Player: Marcus Washington, OLB. The most underrated defensive player in the league. Period.
Key Player: Carlos Rogers, CB. Showed great progress as a rookie, but must show even more in 2006. With Greg Williams’ blitzing schemes, he’ll be left on an island for most of the game and must play like a true number 1 corner.
Big Game: vs. Dallas (11/5). Besides being the NFL’s best rivalry game, the Redskins must beat a revamped Cowboys team after their bye week at home before going at Philly, at Tampa and hosting Carolina.


Pick a weapon, any weapon. Just too many burgandy and gold clad stars to stop.

2. Dallas Cowboys, 9-7
Last Season, 9-7, 3rd place

The three-ring circus has arrived in Irving, with You-Know-Who at the center of attention in the Big Top. Things could get ugly in Big D, or that certain receiver could keep his cool and announcers everywhere may actually have to talk about the rest of the Cowboys. The defense is the real story behind Dallas. Everywhere you look you have playmakers. From DeMarcus Ware to Marcus Spears to Bradie James to Akin Ayodele, there is speed and size everywhere. This may be the best front seven in the NFL. The weakness lies in the secondary. Terence Newman can be abused on short routes, Anthony Henry is unreliable and Roy Williams, for all his highlight reel hits, can be beaten deep often. Just ask Santana Moss. Offensively, the Circus is an inviting target to throw to, and it looks like Terry Glenn could have a renaissance year in ’06. Julius Jones is a solid back and Marion Barber is a good backup. But the offensive line is average at best, and the statuesque Drew Bledsoe could be in trouble against good defenses. The Boys will have to face six solid defenses in their division alone. The offensive lines should make the difference in the division, and Dallas is on the short end.
Best Player: DeMarcus Ware, OLB. Ware, right at home in a 3-4, is the perfect combination of size, speed and smarts.
Key Player: Mike Vanderjagt, K. No team has lost more games in the past three seasons because of botched field goals than Dallas. If Vanderjagt can’t get his head right, Dallas is sure to lose more close games this season.
Big Game: vs. Washington (9/17). Facing a season of high expectations, Bill Parcells and the Boys can ill afford to lose two straight at home to their archrival in front of a national audience.

3. New York Giants, 8-8
Last Season: 11-5, 1st place

Considering the NFL/MLB/ESPN bias towards New York-Boston teams, it is shocking to see the Giants schedule. Here are their first two months worth of games: Manning Bowl at home, at Philly, at Seattle, home against the Skins, at Atlanta, at Dallas and home against Tampa. Not only could they easily go only 4-3 or 3-4 during that stretch, they could easily go 0-7. The second half is not much easier, with three more division games and contests against Carolina, Chicago and Jacksonville. Even giving the Giants the generous assumption of a 3-4 start, the best they could hope for is maybe a 6-3 finish. Which would put them at 9-7. And I don’t think they’ll make nine wins. They’ve improved defensively, but not enough to handle the Washington and Dallas offenses, not to mention the ones they’ll face against Seattle and Indy. Tiki Barber has nowhere to go but down. And Eli Manning has shown no signs of being able to consistently win on the road. Considering the tough home games the Giants have, and the fact they will not be receiving 13 home games this season, Eli is going to have to grow up in a hurry behind a poor and injury-plagued offensive line. It’s a Giant step backward in ’06 for the Swamplanders
Best Player: Tiki Barber, RB. Even though his numbers are going to take a hit, he’s still the best weapon for the Giants offense.
Key Player: Sam Madison, CB. During their late season swoon, the Giants secondary looked terrible. Madison was paid big bucks to change that. Most say he’s too old and has lost a step. I agree, but maybe Madison can be the difference for the G-men.
Big Game: at Philadelphia (9/17). Take your pick from this brutal slate. But if Eli can’t win at Philly, then there’s no way he’s winning at Seattle, Atlanta or Dallas.

4. Philadelphia Eagles, 7-9
Last Season: 6-10, 4th place

So Donovan McNabb is healthy and ready to lead the Eagles back to the playoffs. And he’s going to throw to who exactly? By the time Donte Stallworth figures out the offense, the Eagles should be well out of playoff contention. And it’s really only a matter of time before Andy Reid’s reckless offense puts McHernia back on the bench as the team collapses around him once again. Even healthy, without his friend T.O. to pitch it around with, McNabb is going to regress back to the inaccurate passer we saw earlier in his career. Defensively, the Eagles secondary, once the gold standard in the league, is showing some wear and tear. Brian Dawkins is not what he used to be and now only the fourth best safety in his own division. Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown are a good combo assuming they can make it through the season healthy. And the linebackers are either over-the-hill (Jeremiah Trotter) or overrated (Dhani Johns and Jeremiah Trotter). There are just too many injury risks on this team, and they can’t afford to be less than full strength in this division. The one factor they have going for them is a relatively easy early schedule that could start the Birds at 5-1. So get ready to deal with the ESPN hype machine for the first two months of the season. After that it gets much tougher including an unheard of three straight road games in three weeks against division opponents. The Eagles will not survive.
Best Player: Michael Lewis, SS. The one member of the secondary that is neither too old or an injury liability.
Key Player: Reggie Brown, WR. Showed some flashes last season (against the Redskins primarily) and needs to elevate his game tremendously for Philly’s offense to have a chance.
Big Game: at New Orleans (10/15). The Eagles should be at least 4-1 entering this game and need to grab another road win before their tough second half. This is the only chance they have of being above .500.

NORTH

1. Chicago Bears, 10-6
Last Season: 11-5, 1st place

This is a division that the Bears should win going away. When they get to face Vanderbilt, Baylor and Duke a combined six times during the season, the Bears should really be no worst than 11-5 or 12-4. But the instability at quarterback, receiver and running back will keep Chicago from cruising through the North and clinching a first round bye like last season. The Bears are nothing more than an average team playing in a horrid division. Put this team in the East or South, they go 6-10 at best. Fortunately for Chicago, their stagnant offense won’t have to score much with the league’s best defense backing them up. As Chicago continues their change to a Cover 2 scheme, look for some bumps in the road that will also help the other three Sisters of the Poor to keep up. Look for a lot of 13-10 Bears wins in 2006.
Best Player: Brian Urlacher, ILB. As usual, it will be Urlacher and his ten backup singers on the defensive side.
Key Player: Cedric Benson/Thomas Jones, RB. Can the real Bears running back please stand up. One of these two needs to take control of the starting job or Chicago is going to have to look elsewhere in the off-season.
Big Game: vs. Miami (11/5). First off, this will be a stern test for the Bears. They’ll be looking at their spitting image on the other sideline. Second, Chicago has three straight road games after this one and their next home game is against Minnesota.

2. Minnesota Vikings, 8-8
Last Season, 9-7, 2nd place

Who would you rather have, Daunte Culpepper or Brad Johnson? Sure, Johnson’s temporary success at the end of 2005 looked promising, but the Vikings had an incredibly soft schedule and they still only managed a 9-7 finish. Like Philly and Chicago, the talent just isn’t there on offense. Unlike those two teams, there is little chance that the Vikings defense can carry this team while the offense struggles. In the NFL, you can’t win without a good linebacking unit. The combination of E.J. Henderson, Napoleon Harris and Ben Leber had 122 tackles in 2005. That’s 35 fewer tackles than Bills’ linebacker London Fletcher had by himself. The secondary is also weak and prone to getting beat deep with aging Darren Sharper and sub par Dwight Smith at the safety position. There’s a reason Sharper had 9 INT’s last season…because opposing teams threw at him more times per game than any other player in the league. His ratio of INT’s to times thrown at is not good.
Best Player: Steve Hutchinson, LG. The best player on the Vikings didn’t take one snap for them in 2005. As a member of the Seahawks, Hutchinson proved he was the league’s best guard.
Key Player: Napoleon Harris, MLB. Good defensives begin with the middle linebacker. Harris, acquired in the Randy Moss trade, has shown very little the past couple of seasons.
Big Game: at Chicago (12/3). How do you jump over the Bears in the standings? How about going to Soldier Field in December and pulling out the upset.

3. Detroit Lions, 6-10
Last Season: 5-11, 3rd place

The addition of Mike Martz to the coaching staff means a complete overhaul in offensive philosophies. From Steve Mariucci’s West Coast offense to Martz’s aggressive downfield attack, the Lions will look completely different when they have the ball this season. The only problem? The Lions don’t have the personnel for Mad Mike’s vertical offense. The Lions have two talented players on the offensive side: Kevin Jones and Roy Williams. That’s it, that’s the list. The offensive line is one of the worst in football. And Martz’s scheme necessitates five good blockers that can all be left on an island so the receivers can attack downfield. Jon Kitna is certainly an improvement from Joey Harrington, but that’s not saying much. The defense suffers from a similar lack of talent and depth. The fact Detroit is starting Cory Redding, James Hall, Paris Lenon and Fernando Bryant shows you how few NFL-caliber starters the Lions have. And if those are the starters, who is going to replace them if anyone gets hurt? Add in the fact that it’s only a matter of time before Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz butt heads, and it looks like another ugly season in Motown.
Best Player: Kevin Jones, RB. Sure Roy Williams makes spectacular plays, but he disappears too often. Jones is a steady performer.
Key Player: Ross Verba, LG. Can Verba come in and help this line improve? If he does, Detroit could make some noise in this weak division.
Big Game: vs. Buffalo (10/15). Detroit will most likely be coming in no better than 2-3. Buffalo is the first in a five game stretch of very winnable games.


Look, it's Joey Harrington/Jeff Garcia/Jon Kitna/Josh McCown staring for an average team near you.

4. Green Bay Packers, 4-12
Last Season: 4-12, 4th place

What can you say about the Packers? At least they have the second-easiest schedule in the league. The positives end right there because you are likely looking at the worst team in the NFL in 2006. On offense, there isn’t one position that the Packers are good at. Not even at quarterback with 52-year old Brett Favre. Other than maybe Donald Driver, is there even one player on Green Bay’s offense that would even remotely scare an opposing defensive coordinator? No. On defense, the Packers were somehow ranked 7th in the league last year. Look for that number to drop as Green Bay only has Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Nick Barnett and then several castoffs and rookies. The schedule will help Green Bay rack up at least four wins, as will their home field advantage at Lambeau. It’s going to take a lot more than cold temperatures to save the Packers from another year of misery under Favre.
Best Player: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, DE. The only player for the Packers front seven that is a serious threat to rush the passer.
Key Player: Tony Moll/Jason Spitz, G. The Packers decided to start two low draft picks at left and right guard. I’m sure Favre is thrilled about that decision.
Big Game: vs. St. Louis (10/8). This is the first real chance they have of getting a win and maybe their last real chance until December.

SOUTH

1. Carolina Panthers, 12-4
Last Season: 11-5, 2nd place

The pieces are all in place for the Carolina Panthers. Injuries decimated both of their lines and their running back unit last season. It appears everyone is healthy and ready to go. The Panthers go from Stephen Davis and an injured DeShaun Foster to DeAngelo Williams and a healthy DeShaun Foster. That’s a mighty big improvement. The Double-De’s should run even better behind an offensive line featuring Pro-Bowlers or potential Pro-Bowlers at all five positions. Add in the Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith combination, and this offense has the ability to attack downfield and also grind it out on the ground for long, sustained drives. Defensively, the Panthers are weak at linebacker after losing two of last year’s starters. But the addition of Na’il Diggs should help. As will the four starters on the defensive line, one of the best in the conference. Other than questionable starters at tight end and outside linebacker, the Panthers are stacked on both sides of the ball. John Fox is a great coach, and there is no excuse for failing with this team.
Best Player: Julius Peppers, DE. One of the most feared linemen in the league notched 10.5 sacks while playing injured in 2005.
Key Player: DeAngelo Williams, RB. There’s just something about Foster that tells me he isn’t making it through the season again. The rookie Williams will have to fill in for the Panthers offense to be effective.
Big Game: vs. Tampa Bay (11/13). Coming off a bye week, Carolina will need to beat the Bucs at home on Monday night to assert dominance over the tough South.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9-7
Last Season: 11-5, 1st place

After ragging on the Bucs last season, I’ve come to grips with the reality that they are a pretty good team and Chris Simms – I can’t believe I’m saying this – has the potential to be a high-quality NFL quarterback. Still, I don’t think Tampa Bay can pull off another 11-5 season. The Panthers, Falcons and Saints all got better in the off-season while Tampa was stuck in neutral. Simms, as evidenced from his struggles at the end of last season, still has a way to go before he can truly lead the Buccaneers to a conference title. The offensive line still has some problems, but the Bucs did upgrade some from last year. I like the weapons of Cadillac Williams, Alex Smith (the good one) and Mike Clayton. I’m just really worried about the interior of the line. Will Williams, who is a true north-south rusher, have holes up the middle? And can they keep the pressure off Simms on blitzes? I’m not sure the middle three can do it consistently. Simms and the offense will be helped out with Tampa’s trademark defense. It is the best defense in this division and it will help keep Tampa afloat against tough competition.
Best Player: Shelton Quarles, MLB. You can take your pick from Tampa’s defense, but Quarles has even surpassed Derrick Brooks in importance to this team
Key Player: Davin Joseph, RG. The true rookie will be responsible for keeping blitzers away from his young quarterback. Is he up to it?
Big Game: vs. Washington (11/19). The Bucs have a very tough second half. The Washington game is preceded with a road trip to Charlotte, and followed by two road trips to Dallas and Pittsburgh. If Tampa doesn’t win at home against the Skins, they’re looking at a late-season four-game losing streak.

3. Atlanta Falcons, 8-8
Last Season: 8-8, 3rd place

The Falcons upgraded the defense after the unit was run over, around and through in 2005. The additions of John Abraham and Lawyer Milloy bolster a defense that already has playmakers in Keith Brooking, Patrick Kearney and DeAngelo Hall. Expect the Falcons defense to be much better in 2006. The offense is still a work in progress. By trading T.J. Duckett, the Falcons took their strength at the running game and turned it into a question mark. Can the 5’8” Warrick Dunn be the featured back for a team that was number 1 in rushing in ’05? Remember, even in Tampa, Dunn was helped by Mike Alstott. If Dunn goes down, the pressure is Michael Vick and his questionable cast of receivers. The season really hinges on the health of one player: Dunn. If Dunn becomes Done during the season, this offense won’t go anywhere.
Best Player: Keith Brooking, OLB. Despite the injury problems, Brooking still had 115 tackles, four sacks and four picks in 2005.
Key Player: Warrick Dunn, RB. We established this point above, Dunn must have a season comparable to his 2005 campaign without the luxury of a change of pace back in Atlanta’s offense.
Big Game: at Carolina (9/10). We’ll find out right away if Atlanta can challenge the Panthers for division supremacy.

4. New Orleans Saints, 6-10
Last Season, 3-13, 4th place

Optimism. That’s the key word for a city and a franchise that desperately need it. The Saints, for the first time in several seasons, have legitimate optimism. Unfortunately, it’s going to take more than that to contend in this division. The Saints will be better. In fact, the Saints will be much better in 2006. But the third hardest schedule in the league does them no favors and neither does a porous defense. After Will Smith and Scott Fujita, only promising rookie Roman Harper is worth talking about on the defensive end. A defense that ranked 27th against the rush is sure in the wrong division to try and improve that mark. The Saints should be able to move the ball relatively well. The offensive line isn’t as bad as most think with Jammal Brown and veteran Jeff Faine up front. New Orleans certainly is stacked at the skill positions with Drew Bress leading the charge. Brees, if healthy, could be the best free agent signing of the off-season. He’ll get to play with Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn and, of course, one Reginald Bush. The Superdome will be loud this season and should offer the Saints great home field advantage. This team is getting closer to being a playoff threat. But despite the dangerous combination of McAllister and Bush, the Saints offense doesn’t have enough to make up for the team’s defensive shortcomings. Just give it a couple of more seasons.
Best Player: Reggie Bush, RB. Sure McAllister is starting. But no rookie that I can remember has ever generated this much excitement. Free Reggie Bush!
Key Player: Hollis Thomas, DT. He must bring something to table when it comes to stopping the run. The secondary is average in terms of the NFL but the run defense must improve.
Big Game: vs. Atlanta (9/25). The Saints’ Odysseus-like journey finally concludes when they return back to the Superdome on Monday night against the Falcons.


Reggie Bush gives the Saints a reason to hope for a better future.

WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks, 12-4
Last Season: 13-3, 1st place

Even without All-World guard Steve Hutchinson, the Seahawks offense will be just fine in 2006. Will Shaun Alexander rush for 1,880 yards and 28 touchdowns again? Probably not, but a 1,500 yard season with 20 touchdowns is certainly reasonable and would easily be enough for Seattle to win this division. The Hawks still have Walter Jones on the left side and talented center Robbie Tobeck and right tackle Sean Locklear on a stellar offensive line. And they still have Matt Hasselbeck, who for my money, is the smartest quarterback in the league. He gets a new toy this year in Nate Burleson, as Seattle finally has two capable receivers (Darrell Jackson being the other). With the addition of Julian Peterson and the return of Ken Hamlin to the defense, the league’s 16th ranked unit (but number 1 in terms of sacks) only figures to get better. Seattle is still the team to beat in this division by far. Because they play in the West, the Hawks get the league’s 5th easiest schedule and have one of the best home field advantages in the game for opponents to deal with. Yes, even without Hutchinson, Seattle will be just fine in the NFC.
Best Player: Walter Jones, LT. The other reason that Alexander posted a historic year in 2005 was the best left tackle in the game.
Key Player: Rocky Bernard, DT. Bernard had an incredible 2005 that went unnoticed. For Seattle to be effective against the pass again, Rocky will have to post another year similar to the 52 tackles and 8.5 sacks he had last season.
Big Game: at Chicago (10/1). After this game with the Bears, it’s smooth sailing for Seattle until December. It certainly wouldn’t hurt to win this one on the road…if for no other reason than playoff positioning tiebreakers.

2. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8
Last Season: 5-11, 3rd place

No team, maybe save for Indianapolis, has more talent at the skill position than the Cardinals. Their lineup reads like a Pro-Bowl roster. Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are the new “quadruplets” of the NFL. Even without a decent offensive line, this isn’t like the Lions’ half-brained scheme the past couple of seasons of loading up at receiver while ignoring quarterback and o-line. This team, even with a substandard offensive line, is still very, very dangerous. The most surprising player on this team might be 6’8” rookie tight end Leonard Pope, who was the most talented tight end in the draft (yes, even better than Vernon Davis). He stands to benefit playing with all these weapons. The only way to beat the Cardinals offense is to stop Warner from throwing the ball. The interior of the line is somewhat weak and could prove to be the undoing of the Arizona offense. Defensively the Cardinals aren’t that bad either. A group of young veterans are starting to grow up and the Cards may see some results this season. I like Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle and Adrian Wilson. This could be a dangerous unit. By no means is 8-8 out of the question for Arizona. With this offense and a new stadium, at least the Cardinals will be worth watching for the first time since 1998.
Best Player: Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin, WR. Hard to pick one, but the combination makes each one even better.
Key Player: Milford Brown, RG. Brown needs to do something he couldn’t do with Houston…keep defensive players off his quarterback.
Big Game: at Seattle (9/17). A statement game early in the season. The Cards need to show that they can at least be competitive with Seattle.


The Cardinals new digs comes complete with a new offense.

3. St. Louis Rams, 5-11
Last Season: 6-10, 2nd place

The questions start and finish with the defense. A unit that was ranked 30th last season must improve for the Rams to have any chance of finishing at .500. Other than Leonard Little (who isn’t the best run stopper) and free agent Will Witherspoon, there is almost nothing remotely intimidating about the defense. You can run on them (28th ranked) and throw over them (23rd ranked, gave up the second most amount of touchdowns of 20 yards or more). The running game, which lagged under buffoon Mike Martz, should get a boost from new coach Scott Linehan. The Orlando Pace-Richie Incognito-Adam McCollum offensive line left side should give Stephen Jackson some running room. Personally, I’m not a big Jackson fan, but he’s yet to get a real chance at being a 1,500 yard rusher. If he can’t do it this year, my suspicions about his talent will be correct. The passing game, which is a Rams staple, should drop off this season. Marc Bulger is an injury ticking time bomb. Issac Bruce continues his rapid decline with his rising age. Torry Holt, assuming his hamstring and knees are healthy, is still dangerous. But he never seems to be healthy anymore. Don’t expect the Rams to bounce back from a couple of bad seasons here in 2006.
Best Player: Orlando Pace, LT. He used to be the best offensive lineman in the game. Now with Walter Jones in Seattle, he’s only the second best lineman in the division.
Key Player: La’Roi Glover, DT. Glover, who played end for several seasons, will be expected to become a premier tackle and help a terrible rushing defense.
Big Game: at San Diego (10/29). After an easy beginning, the Rams start their tough second half with a game on the road against the Chargers. It could be their most winnable game until facing the 49ers a month later.

4. San Francisco 49ers, 4-12
Last Season: 4-12, 4th place

With huge question marks at quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and cornerback, the 49ers went out and drafted themselves…a tight end? If there was one position the 49ers didn’t need help at, it was tight end. With Eric Johnson returning from injury, the 49ers are now stacked at the tight end position but weak everywhere else. The offense, from the line to the QB to the running game to the receivers, is terrible all the way through. When Frisco resigned Jerry Rice to a one-day contract so he could retire a 49er, my question was why not give him a one-year contract so he can be the number one receiver for this team. They are that bad. The offense ranked dead last in 2005, and it doesn’t appear to be heading for any improvement in ’06. The defense, which also ranked dead last, does seem like it has room to become better (it obviously can’t get any worse). Derek Smith is a great player, and Tony Parrish and Bryant Young are solid veterans. Frisco’s defense is going to get plenty of chances to get better because they are going to be on the field a lot. This team can not possibly get more than four wins.
Best Player: Derek Smith, OLB. Smith’s the only member of the defense that is a real threat to stop both the run and the pass.
Key Player: Alex Smith, QB. Smith doesn’t need to be Joe Montana, but needs to show that he has a pulse and can occasionally lead his team to a victory. Or even occasionally lead his team into the endzone.
Big Game: vs. Oakland (10/8). The 49ers can make their season a little better by beating their Bay Area rivals.

Playoffs:
First Round
(6) Tampa Bay vs. (3) Washington
(5) Dallas vs. (4) Chicago

Second Round
(3) Washington vs. (2) Seattle
(4) Chicago vs. (1) Carolina

NFC Championship
Carolina over Washington

Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis 27, Carolina 19