2006 NFC Preview

The NFC features two tough divisions and two that will probably be decided by October. Or not. That’s why the NFL is so great. Logic says the Bears should run away with the crummy North Division, but who knows if the Vikings or Lions have a run in them. Maybe the East and the South won’t be such bruising divisions after all. While there are a lot of powerful teams in the NFC this year, most of them are frighteningly thin. A couple of key injuries to the wrong players could turn any of the four divisions around completely. So let me offer my insight to the 2006 NFC and then offer a Super Bowl pick afterwards…only so I can look like an idiot when none of what I say comes true in four months.

EAST

1. Washington Redskins, 11-5
Last Season: 10-6, 2nd place

What, you expected something different here? Dallas or New York maybe? The truth is that no one really knows what is going to happen in this division. You could put any of the four teams at the top and any of the four teams at the bottom and you could make a logical argument for doing so (unlike, say, putting the Texans in first in the AFC South). The Redskins are the team because of the coaching. There may be no finer staff assembled at any time in NFL history. You have a Hall of Fame coach controlling everything, but the best offensive and defensive coordinator in the game calling the shots. As I stated before, the Redskins addressed their needs at receiver and defensive line, and didn’t get noticeably weaker at any position. They are thin at some positions, but do have capable backups at running back, receiver, defensive line and defensive backfield. The quarterback will be the position of focus, but with one of the best offensive lines and a multitude of weapons to choose from, Mark Brunell should have no problems. The defense may still have problems rushing the passer, but the secondary with Sean Taylor and Shawn Springs will make up for it. Plus, their schedule, when compared to other NFC teams, isn’t half bad. The Skins have all three home division games in the second-half of the season…something that will certainly play to their advantage down the stretch in what should be a tight race.
Best Player: Marcus Washington, OLB. The most underrated defensive player in the league. Period.
Key Player: Carlos Rogers, CB. Showed great progress as a rookie, but must show even more in 2006. With Greg Williams’ blitzing schemes, he’ll be left on an island for most of the game and must play like a true number 1 corner.
Big Game: vs. Dallas (11/5). Besides being the NFL’s best rivalry game, the Redskins must beat a revamped Cowboys team after their bye week at home before going at Philly, at Tampa and hosting Carolina.


Pick a weapon, any weapon. Just too many burgandy and gold clad stars to stop.

2. Dallas Cowboys, 9-7
Last Season, 9-7, 3rd place

The three-ring circus has arrived in Irving, with You-Know-Who at the center of attention in the Big Top. Things could get ugly in Big D, or that certain receiver could keep his cool and announcers everywhere may actually have to talk about the rest of the Cowboys. The defense is the real story behind Dallas. Everywhere you look you have playmakers. From DeMarcus Ware to Marcus Spears to Bradie James to Akin Ayodele, there is speed and size everywhere. This may be the best front seven in the NFL. The weakness lies in the secondary. Terence Newman can be abused on short routes, Anthony Henry is unreliable and Roy Williams, for all his highlight reel hits, can be beaten deep often. Just ask Santana Moss. Offensively, the Circus is an inviting target to throw to, and it looks like Terry Glenn could have a renaissance year in ’06. Julius Jones is a solid back and Marion Barber is a good backup. But the offensive line is average at best, and the statuesque Drew Bledsoe could be in trouble against good defenses. The Boys will have to face six solid defenses in their division alone. The offensive lines should make the difference in the division, and Dallas is on the short end.
Best Player: DeMarcus Ware, OLB. Ware, right at home in a 3-4, is the perfect combination of size, speed and smarts.
Key Player: Mike Vanderjagt, K. No team has lost more games in the past three seasons because of botched field goals than Dallas. If Vanderjagt can’t get his head right, Dallas is sure to lose more close games this season.
Big Game: vs. Washington (9/17). Facing a season of high expectations, Bill Parcells and the Boys can ill afford to lose two straight at home to their archrival in front of a national audience.

3. New York Giants, 8-8
Last Season: 11-5, 1st place

Considering the NFL/MLB/ESPN bias towards New York-Boston teams, it is shocking to see the Giants schedule. Here are their first two months worth of games: Manning Bowl at home, at Philly, at Seattle, home against the Skins, at Atlanta, at Dallas and home against Tampa. Not only could they easily go only 4-3 or 3-4 during that stretch, they could easily go 0-7. The second half is not much easier, with three more division games and contests against Carolina, Chicago and Jacksonville. Even giving the Giants the generous assumption of a 3-4 start, the best they could hope for is maybe a 6-3 finish. Which would put them at 9-7. And I don’t think they’ll make nine wins. They’ve improved defensively, but not enough to handle the Washington and Dallas offenses, not to mention the ones they’ll face against Seattle and Indy. Tiki Barber has nowhere to go but down. And Eli Manning has shown no signs of being able to consistently win on the road. Considering the tough home games the Giants have, and the fact they will not be receiving 13 home games this season, Eli is going to have to grow up in a hurry behind a poor and injury-plagued offensive line. It’s a Giant step backward in ’06 for the Swamplanders
Best Player: Tiki Barber, RB. Even though his numbers are going to take a hit, he’s still the best weapon for the Giants offense.
Key Player: Sam Madison, CB. During their late season swoon, the Giants secondary looked terrible. Madison was paid big bucks to change that. Most say he’s too old and has lost a step. I agree, but maybe Madison can be the difference for the G-men.
Big Game: at Philadelphia (9/17). Take your pick from this brutal slate. But if Eli can’t win at Philly, then there’s no way he’s winning at Seattle, Atlanta or Dallas.

4. Philadelphia Eagles, 7-9
Last Season: 6-10, 4th place

So Donovan McNabb is healthy and ready to lead the Eagles back to the playoffs. And he’s going to throw to who exactly? By the time Donte Stallworth figures out the offense, the Eagles should be well out of playoff contention. And it’s really only a matter of time before Andy Reid’s reckless offense puts McHernia back on the bench as the team collapses around him once again. Even healthy, without his friend T.O. to pitch it around with, McNabb is going to regress back to the inaccurate passer we saw earlier in his career. Defensively, the Eagles secondary, once the gold standard in the league, is showing some wear and tear. Brian Dawkins is not what he used to be and now only the fourth best safety in his own division. Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown are a good combo assuming they can make it through the season healthy. And the linebackers are either over-the-hill (Jeremiah Trotter) or overrated (Dhani Johns and Jeremiah Trotter). There are just too many injury risks on this team, and they can’t afford to be less than full strength in this division. The one factor they have going for them is a relatively easy early schedule that could start the Birds at 5-1. So get ready to deal with the ESPN hype machine for the first two months of the season. After that it gets much tougher including an unheard of three straight road games in three weeks against division opponents. The Eagles will not survive.
Best Player: Michael Lewis, SS. The one member of the secondary that is neither too old or an injury liability.
Key Player: Reggie Brown, WR. Showed some flashes last season (against the Redskins primarily) and needs to elevate his game tremendously for Philly’s offense to have a chance.
Big Game: at New Orleans (10/15). The Eagles should be at least 4-1 entering this game and need to grab another road win before their tough second half. This is the only chance they have of being above .500.

NORTH

1. Chicago Bears, 10-6
Last Season: 11-5, 1st place

This is a division that the Bears should win going away. When they get to face Vanderbilt, Baylor and Duke a combined six times during the season, the Bears should really be no worst than 11-5 or 12-4. But the instability at quarterback, receiver and running back will keep Chicago from cruising through the North and clinching a first round bye like last season. The Bears are nothing more than an average team playing in a horrid division. Put this team in the East or South, they go 6-10 at best. Fortunately for Chicago, their stagnant offense won’t have to score much with the league’s best defense backing them up. As Chicago continues their change to a Cover 2 scheme, look for some bumps in the road that will also help the other three Sisters of the Poor to keep up. Look for a lot of 13-10 Bears wins in 2006.
Best Player: Brian Urlacher, ILB. As usual, it will be Urlacher and his ten backup singers on the defensive side.
Key Player: Cedric Benson/Thomas Jones, RB. Can the real Bears running back please stand up. One of these two needs to take control of the starting job or Chicago is going to have to look elsewhere in the off-season.
Big Game: vs. Miami (11/5). First off, this will be a stern test for the Bears. They’ll be looking at their spitting image on the other sideline. Second, Chicago has three straight road games after this one and their next home game is against Minnesota.

2. Minnesota Vikings, 8-8
Last Season, 9-7, 2nd place

Who would you rather have, Daunte Culpepper or Brad Johnson? Sure, Johnson’s temporary success at the end of 2005 looked promising, but the Vikings had an incredibly soft schedule and they still only managed a 9-7 finish. Like Philly and Chicago, the talent just isn’t there on offense. Unlike those two teams, there is little chance that the Vikings defense can carry this team while the offense struggles. In the NFL, you can’t win without a good linebacking unit. The combination of E.J. Henderson, Napoleon Harris and Ben Leber had 122 tackles in 2005. That’s 35 fewer tackles than Bills’ linebacker London Fletcher had by himself. The secondary is also weak and prone to getting beat deep with aging Darren Sharper and sub par Dwight Smith at the safety position. There’s a reason Sharper had 9 INT’s last season…because opposing teams threw at him more times per game than any other player in the league. His ratio of INT’s to times thrown at is not good.
Best Player: Steve Hutchinson, LG. The best player on the Vikings didn’t take one snap for them in 2005. As a member of the Seahawks, Hutchinson proved he was the league’s best guard.
Key Player: Napoleon Harris, MLB. Good defensives begin with the middle linebacker. Harris, acquired in the Randy Moss trade, has shown very little the past couple of seasons.
Big Game: at Chicago (12/3). How do you jump over the Bears in the standings? How about going to Soldier Field in December and pulling out the upset.

3. Detroit Lions, 6-10
Last Season: 5-11, 3rd place

The addition of Mike Martz to the coaching staff means a complete overhaul in offensive philosophies. From Steve Mariucci’s West Coast offense to Martz’s aggressive downfield attack, the Lions will look completely different when they have the ball this season. The only problem? The Lions don’t have the personnel for Mad Mike’s vertical offense. The Lions have two talented players on the offensive side: Kevin Jones and Roy Williams. That’s it, that’s the list. The offensive line is one of the worst in football. And Martz’s scheme necessitates five good blockers that can all be left on an island so the receivers can attack downfield. Jon Kitna is certainly an improvement from Joey Harrington, but that’s not saying much. The defense suffers from a similar lack of talent and depth. The fact Detroit is starting Cory Redding, James Hall, Paris Lenon and Fernando Bryant shows you how few NFL-caliber starters the Lions have. And if those are the starters, who is going to replace them if anyone gets hurt? Add in the fact that it’s only a matter of time before Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz butt heads, and it looks like another ugly season in Motown.
Best Player: Kevin Jones, RB. Sure Roy Williams makes spectacular plays, but he disappears too often. Jones is a steady performer.
Key Player: Ross Verba, LG. Can Verba come in and help this line improve? If he does, Detroit could make some noise in this weak division.
Big Game: vs. Buffalo (10/15). Detroit will most likely be coming in no better than 2-3. Buffalo is the first in a five game stretch of very winnable games.


Look, it's Joey Harrington/Jeff Garcia/Jon Kitna/Josh McCown staring for an average team near you.

4. Green Bay Packers, 4-12
Last Season: 4-12, 4th place

What can you say about the Packers? At least they have the second-easiest schedule in the league. The positives end right there because you are likely looking at the worst team in the NFL in 2006. On offense, there isn’t one position that the Packers are good at. Not even at quarterback with 52-year old Brett Favre. Other than maybe Donald Driver, is there even one player on Green Bay’s offense that would even remotely scare an opposing defensive coordinator? No. On defense, the Packers were somehow ranked 7th in the league last year. Look for that number to drop as Green Bay only has Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Nick Barnett and then several castoffs and rookies. The schedule will help Green Bay rack up at least four wins, as will their home field advantage at Lambeau. It’s going to take a lot more than cold temperatures to save the Packers from another year of misery under Favre.
Best Player: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, DE. The only player for the Packers front seven that is a serious threat to rush the passer.
Key Player: Tony Moll/Jason Spitz, G. The Packers decided to start two low draft picks at left and right guard. I’m sure Favre is thrilled about that decision.
Big Game: vs. St. Louis (10/8). This is the first real chance they have of getting a win and maybe their last real chance until December.

SOUTH

1. Carolina Panthers, 12-4
Last Season: 11-5, 2nd place

The pieces are all in place for the Carolina Panthers. Injuries decimated both of their lines and their running back unit last season. It appears everyone is healthy and ready to go. The Panthers go from Stephen Davis and an injured DeShaun Foster to DeAngelo Williams and a healthy DeShaun Foster. That’s a mighty big improvement. The Double-De’s should run even better behind an offensive line featuring Pro-Bowlers or potential Pro-Bowlers at all five positions. Add in the Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith combination, and this offense has the ability to attack downfield and also grind it out on the ground for long, sustained drives. Defensively, the Panthers are weak at linebacker after losing two of last year’s starters. But the addition of Na’il Diggs should help. As will the four starters on the defensive line, one of the best in the conference. Other than questionable starters at tight end and outside linebacker, the Panthers are stacked on both sides of the ball. John Fox is a great coach, and there is no excuse for failing with this team.
Best Player: Julius Peppers, DE. One of the most feared linemen in the league notched 10.5 sacks while playing injured in 2005.
Key Player: DeAngelo Williams, RB. There’s just something about Foster that tells me he isn’t making it through the season again. The rookie Williams will have to fill in for the Panthers offense to be effective.
Big Game: vs. Tampa Bay (11/13). Coming off a bye week, Carolina will need to beat the Bucs at home on Monday night to assert dominance over the tough South.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9-7
Last Season: 11-5, 1st place

After ragging on the Bucs last season, I’ve come to grips with the reality that they are a pretty good team and Chris Simms – I can’t believe I’m saying this – has the potential to be a high-quality NFL quarterback. Still, I don’t think Tampa Bay can pull off another 11-5 season. The Panthers, Falcons and Saints all got better in the off-season while Tampa was stuck in neutral. Simms, as evidenced from his struggles at the end of last season, still has a way to go before he can truly lead the Buccaneers to a conference title. The offensive line still has some problems, but the Bucs did upgrade some from last year. I like the weapons of Cadillac Williams, Alex Smith (the good one) and Mike Clayton. I’m just really worried about the interior of the line. Will Williams, who is a true north-south rusher, have holes up the middle? And can they keep the pressure off Simms on blitzes? I’m not sure the middle three can do it consistently. Simms and the offense will be helped out with Tampa’s trademark defense. It is the best defense in this division and it will help keep Tampa afloat against tough competition.
Best Player: Shelton Quarles, MLB. You can take your pick from Tampa’s defense, but Quarles has even surpassed Derrick Brooks in importance to this team
Key Player: Davin Joseph, RG. The true rookie will be responsible for keeping blitzers away from his young quarterback. Is he up to it?
Big Game: vs. Washington (11/19). The Bucs have a very tough second half. The Washington game is preceded with a road trip to Charlotte, and followed by two road trips to Dallas and Pittsburgh. If Tampa doesn’t win at home against the Skins, they’re looking at a late-season four-game losing streak.

3. Atlanta Falcons, 8-8
Last Season: 8-8, 3rd place

The Falcons upgraded the defense after the unit was run over, around and through in 2005. The additions of John Abraham and Lawyer Milloy bolster a defense that already has playmakers in Keith Brooking, Patrick Kearney and DeAngelo Hall. Expect the Falcons defense to be much better in 2006. The offense is still a work in progress. By trading T.J. Duckett, the Falcons took their strength at the running game and turned it into a question mark. Can the 5’8” Warrick Dunn be the featured back for a team that was number 1 in rushing in ’05? Remember, even in Tampa, Dunn was helped by Mike Alstott. If Dunn goes down, the pressure is Michael Vick and his questionable cast of receivers. The season really hinges on the health of one player: Dunn. If Dunn becomes Done during the season, this offense won’t go anywhere.
Best Player: Keith Brooking, OLB. Despite the injury problems, Brooking still had 115 tackles, four sacks and four picks in 2005.
Key Player: Warrick Dunn, RB. We established this point above, Dunn must have a season comparable to his 2005 campaign without the luxury of a change of pace back in Atlanta’s offense.
Big Game: at Carolina (9/10). We’ll find out right away if Atlanta can challenge the Panthers for division supremacy.

4. New Orleans Saints, 6-10
Last Season, 3-13, 4th place

Optimism. That’s the key word for a city and a franchise that desperately need it. The Saints, for the first time in several seasons, have legitimate optimism. Unfortunately, it’s going to take more than that to contend in this division. The Saints will be better. In fact, the Saints will be much better in 2006. But the third hardest schedule in the league does them no favors and neither does a porous defense. After Will Smith and Scott Fujita, only promising rookie Roman Harper is worth talking about on the defensive end. A defense that ranked 27th against the rush is sure in the wrong division to try and improve that mark. The Saints should be able to move the ball relatively well. The offensive line isn’t as bad as most think with Jammal Brown and veteran Jeff Faine up front. New Orleans certainly is stacked at the skill positions with Drew Bress leading the charge. Brees, if healthy, could be the best free agent signing of the off-season. He’ll get to play with Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn and, of course, one Reginald Bush. The Superdome will be loud this season and should offer the Saints great home field advantage. This team is getting closer to being a playoff threat. But despite the dangerous combination of McAllister and Bush, the Saints offense doesn’t have enough to make up for the team’s defensive shortcomings. Just give it a couple of more seasons.
Best Player: Reggie Bush, RB. Sure McAllister is starting. But no rookie that I can remember has ever generated this much excitement. Free Reggie Bush!
Key Player: Hollis Thomas, DT. He must bring something to table when it comes to stopping the run. The secondary is average in terms of the NFL but the run defense must improve.
Big Game: vs. Atlanta (9/25). The Saints’ Odysseus-like journey finally concludes when they return back to the Superdome on Monday night against the Falcons.


Reggie Bush gives the Saints a reason to hope for a better future.

WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks, 12-4
Last Season: 13-3, 1st place

Even without All-World guard Steve Hutchinson, the Seahawks offense will be just fine in 2006. Will Shaun Alexander rush for 1,880 yards and 28 touchdowns again? Probably not, but a 1,500 yard season with 20 touchdowns is certainly reasonable and would easily be enough for Seattle to win this division. The Hawks still have Walter Jones on the left side and talented center Robbie Tobeck and right tackle Sean Locklear on a stellar offensive line. And they still have Matt Hasselbeck, who for my money, is the smartest quarterback in the league. He gets a new toy this year in Nate Burleson, as Seattle finally has two capable receivers (Darrell Jackson being the other). With the addition of Julian Peterson and the return of Ken Hamlin to the defense, the league’s 16th ranked unit (but number 1 in terms of sacks) only figures to get better. Seattle is still the team to beat in this division by far. Because they play in the West, the Hawks get the league’s 5th easiest schedule and have one of the best home field advantages in the game for opponents to deal with. Yes, even without Hutchinson, Seattle will be just fine in the NFC.
Best Player: Walter Jones, LT. The other reason that Alexander posted a historic year in 2005 was the best left tackle in the game.
Key Player: Rocky Bernard, DT. Bernard had an incredible 2005 that went unnoticed. For Seattle to be effective against the pass again, Rocky will have to post another year similar to the 52 tackles and 8.5 sacks he had last season.
Big Game: at Chicago (10/1). After this game with the Bears, it’s smooth sailing for Seattle until December. It certainly wouldn’t hurt to win this one on the road…if for no other reason than playoff positioning tiebreakers.

2. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8
Last Season: 5-11, 3rd place

No team, maybe save for Indianapolis, has more talent at the skill position than the Cardinals. Their lineup reads like a Pro-Bowl roster. Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are the new “quadruplets” of the NFL. Even without a decent offensive line, this isn’t like the Lions’ half-brained scheme the past couple of seasons of loading up at receiver while ignoring quarterback and o-line. This team, even with a substandard offensive line, is still very, very dangerous. The most surprising player on this team might be 6’8” rookie tight end Leonard Pope, who was the most talented tight end in the draft (yes, even better than Vernon Davis). He stands to benefit playing with all these weapons. The only way to beat the Cardinals offense is to stop Warner from throwing the ball. The interior of the line is somewhat weak and could prove to be the undoing of the Arizona offense. Defensively the Cardinals aren’t that bad either. A group of young veterans are starting to grow up and the Cards may see some results this season. I like Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle and Adrian Wilson. This could be a dangerous unit. By no means is 8-8 out of the question for Arizona. With this offense and a new stadium, at least the Cardinals will be worth watching for the first time since 1998.
Best Player: Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin, WR. Hard to pick one, but the combination makes each one even better.
Key Player: Milford Brown, RG. Brown needs to do something he couldn’t do with Houston…keep defensive players off his quarterback.
Big Game: at Seattle (9/17). A statement game early in the season. The Cards need to show that they can at least be competitive with Seattle.


The Cardinals new digs comes complete with a new offense.

3. St. Louis Rams, 5-11
Last Season: 6-10, 2nd place

The questions start and finish with the defense. A unit that was ranked 30th last season must improve for the Rams to have any chance of finishing at .500. Other than Leonard Little (who isn’t the best run stopper) and free agent Will Witherspoon, there is almost nothing remotely intimidating about the defense. You can run on them (28th ranked) and throw over them (23rd ranked, gave up the second most amount of touchdowns of 20 yards or more). The running game, which lagged under buffoon Mike Martz, should get a boost from new coach Scott Linehan. The Orlando Pace-Richie Incognito-Adam McCollum offensive line left side should give Stephen Jackson some running room. Personally, I’m not a big Jackson fan, but he’s yet to get a real chance at being a 1,500 yard rusher. If he can’t do it this year, my suspicions about his talent will be correct. The passing game, which is a Rams staple, should drop off this season. Marc Bulger is an injury ticking time bomb. Issac Bruce continues his rapid decline with his rising age. Torry Holt, assuming his hamstring and knees are healthy, is still dangerous. But he never seems to be healthy anymore. Don’t expect the Rams to bounce back from a couple of bad seasons here in 2006.
Best Player: Orlando Pace, LT. He used to be the best offensive lineman in the game. Now with Walter Jones in Seattle, he’s only the second best lineman in the division.
Key Player: La’Roi Glover, DT. Glover, who played end for several seasons, will be expected to become a premier tackle and help a terrible rushing defense.
Big Game: at San Diego (10/29). After an easy beginning, the Rams start their tough second half with a game on the road against the Chargers. It could be their most winnable game until facing the 49ers a month later.

4. San Francisco 49ers, 4-12
Last Season: 4-12, 4th place

With huge question marks at quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and cornerback, the 49ers went out and drafted themselves…a tight end? If there was one position the 49ers didn’t need help at, it was tight end. With Eric Johnson returning from injury, the 49ers are now stacked at the tight end position but weak everywhere else. The offense, from the line to the QB to the running game to the receivers, is terrible all the way through. When Frisco resigned Jerry Rice to a one-day contract so he could retire a 49er, my question was why not give him a one-year contract so he can be the number one receiver for this team. They are that bad. The offense ranked dead last in 2005, and it doesn’t appear to be heading for any improvement in ’06. The defense, which also ranked dead last, does seem like it has room to become better (it obviously can’t get any worse). Derek Smith is a great player, and Tony Parrish and Bryant Young are solid veterans. Frisco’s defense is going to get plenty of chances to get better because they are going to be on the field a lot. This team can not possibly get more than four wins.
Best Player: Derek Smith, OLB. Smith’s the only member of the defense that is a real threat to stop both the run and the pass.
Key Player: Alex Smith, QB. Smith doesn’t need to be Joe Montana, but needs to show that he has a pulse and can occasionally lead his team to a victory. Or even occasionally lead his team into the endzone.
Big Game: vs. Oakland (10/8). The 49ers can make their season a little better by beating their Bay Area rivals.

Playoffs:
First Round
(6) Tampa Bay vs. (3) Washington
(5) Dallas vs. (4) Chicago

Second Round
(3) Washington vs. (2) Seattle
(4) Chicago vs. (1) Carolina

NFC Championship
Carolina over Washington

Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis 27, Carolina 19