Friday, September 29, 2006

Jaguars at Redskins: Growing 'Em Big In The 'Ville



Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-2)
4:15 p.m. FedEx Field
I don’t really have much to say about last week’s game. The Redskins beat up on a team that they were expected to beat up on. I’ve sat here and made fun of these so-called analysts at ESPN who think the Eagles are “back” because they dominated the Texans a couple of weeks ago. So I’m not putting too much stock in a Redskins victory over Houston.

In fact, there was plenty that went on last Sunday that has me even more worried. The Redskins still didn’t get enough pressure on David Carr. This is alarming because the Texans offensive line is terrible. If the Skins can’t get pressure on Carr, who can they get pressure against? Gregg Williams went to the blitz a little more often then he had the first two weeks, but it still wasn’t enough. And there were plenty of times on third down when the Skins simply couldn’t get off the field…again. At points, it looked like the Redskins defense from the first two weeks, but they were playing such a bad team that it didn’t make a difference.

It was good to see Mark Brunell go off for 22 completions in a row. Certainly better than going 10 for 22. But almost all those passes were short and there were very few direct attacks downfield. Case in point: when a quarterback completes around 25 passes, you would expect him to have around 325 to 350 yards passing. Brunell didn’t even get to 250. Houston’s defense, like their offensive line, is terrible. Those swing passes that go for 10 yards against the Texans aren’t going to get more than four or five against anyone else. Eventually, this offense will have to take some shots downfield.

Like most people are saying, even considering the opponent, the Redskins offense looks so much better with Clinton Portis. The confidence level seems to be there in the offensive line when they know they have a running back that’s going to hit the holes and explode through. And Brunell seems much more comfortable in the pocket. Brunell knows the defense is worried about the run and that he is going to have more time to pass. We rarely saw Brunell throw off his back foot like he did several times against Dallas.

Whatever confidence the Redskins discovered last Sunday will be put to a tough test this week. They are playing, for my money, the best defense in the NFL. Better than Pittsburgh’s. Better than Seattle’s. Better than Chicago’s. The Jacksonville defense is filled with monster-sized players who all have speed and can all tackle well.

It all starts with the gigantic nose tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. These two are immovable. Stroud (6’6”) and Henderson (6’7”) combine for more than 625 pounds of flesh in the middle. No team stops the run better than Jacksonville. They are in a virtual dead-heat for second best run defense in the NFL with Seattle by allowing only 59 yards per game. Only the Ravens are better, but they’ve played three of the worst teams in the NFL, so their stats are severely inflated. The Jags have put up their numbers against Julian Jones, Willie Parker and the Colts two-headed running back group. They have a very impressive group up front.

Stroud and Henderson don’t make most of the tackles, but they occupy so many blockers, that running backs are then easy pickings for one of the most underrated players in the game: middle linebacker Mike Peterson. Peterson recorded 132 tackles last season and is well on his way to another 100+ tackle season in 2006. Only Brian Urlacher could be considered a better middle linebacker than Peterson at this point and time.

On the edges of the front seven the Jags have acquired a bunch of great role players. None of these guys are stars, but they swarm to the ball and create turnovers. On the line, ends Paul Spicer and Rob Meier are decent pass rushers but get up and down the line real well to stop the run. The outside linebackers Daryl Smith and Nick Greisen are great in pass coverage and are rarely out of position. That is why it is so hard to run against this team. There is too much bulk inside to run against and there is too much discipline outside to try to spring a sweep or a counter.

Passing against Jacksonville is also tough. First off, the fact that their two behemoths inside take up at least three blockers allow the Jags to effectively blitz only one or two players and drop at least five back into pass coverage. By consistently getting pressure with only five rushers, the Jags create the phenomenon of appearing to have more players out on the field than they actually do. Most teams require six or even seven men to get a steady pass rush. And while the quarterback may not have a lot of time, chances are that somebody is open if the defense is going to rush that many men. But Jacksonville can get instant pressure with five men, which makes it a bitch for any quarterback (especially a 36-year old) to find someone open with six men dropping back into pass coverage.

Even when the Jags can’t get pressure, their secondary is outstanding. They have Rashean Mathis at one corner position. Mathis is a 6’2” corner with blazing speed. He is taller than every wide receiver the Redskins possess. The safeties Donovan Darius and Deon Grant are also tall and physical like Mathis. They are two of the best hitters in the league, and unlike Adam Archuleta, are usually in position to make a play if the receiver somehow catches the ball. Billy Williams, the other corner, has never really impressed me and may be the one weakness on the defense. But he can tackle too. The really impressive thing about this secondary is that all four players can hit hard and can form tackle, which is rare in a secondary in this day and age.

There are even more large players on the offensive side of the ball. The Jacksonville offensive line, which isn’t great but is much better than Houston’s, has three linemen 6’5” or taller. All five linemen weigh more than 300 pounds. Byron Leftwich is one of the tallest and widest quarterbacks in the league. And they have three receivers that are at least 6’4”. And we haven’t even mentioned the running attack that now features a change of pace back for Fred Taylor in UCLA rookie Maurice Jones-Drew. I saw some his games in college and I’m not surprised his success has carried over to the NFL. This kid is legit. Most importantly for the Jaguar offense is the lack of injuries. Taylor and Leftwich seem to have annual injuries that keep them out for long periods at a time and the receiving corps, despite being one of the biggest groups in the NFL, had the reputation for being a bit fragile. But the offense is healthy and playing at full strength.

So…what to do if you’re the Washington Redskins? Offensively, the key is not to make a mistake. Do not give up sacks and do not turn the ball over. The Jaguars offense struggles at times to put together drives, and this Jacksonville team has been very opportunistic in getting points. With the exception of their first half against Indy, Jacksonville has yet to really dominate a game offensively. Which means the Redskins cannot afford to give them short fields by making dumb mistakes with the football. Field position will be everything in this ballgame.

The Redskins will be better off attacking the outside of the Jacksonville defense. It’s not a very attractive option, but it’s better than going after the Stroud-Henderson-Peterson combination in the middle. Since Al Saunders loves to run sweeps and counters and these receiver screens, that shouldn’t be a problem for the Redskins. I would really like to see the Skins continue to attack their left side – Jacksonville’s right side – against Greisen and Billy Williams. Those two players, in open space, are beatable. This seems to be the most favorable matchup for the Redskins. Make sure there are plenty of calls that have Brunell getting rid of the football quickly, because he won’t have much time to attack downfield in this game. Even if he did have time, he has an eight-inch cut on his left arm and hasn’t practiced much this week. That’s certainly a problem…you try throwing a football with four new stitches in your arm. Deep throws are likely to be out of the question.

It’s important for the Redskins to get the ball into the hands of Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El on short passes and let their speed do the rest. As quick as Jacksonville’s secondary is, they aren’t as fast as Moss and Randle El. And it is also important to spell Portis frequently with Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright. Even though Portis says he’s 100%, he clearly isn’t. And these Jacksonville boys can hit hard. Portis is going to be taking a lot of shots so he needs to be spelled as often as possible.

Defensively, the Redskins are going to have problems matching up across the board. Carlos Rogers and Kenny Wright are expected to cover Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Both Jones and Williams will have height advantages. Without Shawn Springs, the question for Gregg Williams continues to be whether or not to blitz and leave his corners by themselves, or play this soft seven-man zone and give the quarterback plenty of time to throw. For three weeks I’ve been on Williams about not blitzing nearly enough, but this may be the right week to play back a little bit. You can’t allow Leftwich to keep lobbing jump balls to Jones, Williams and Ernest Wilford all game. The corners are going to need help and the only way to do that will be to drop six or seven back. That doesn’t mean I like this crummy zone the Redskins have been playing. I would love to see some traditional Cover Two if the Redskins can play it. But the corners are going to need help with the receivers and if the soft zone is the only way the Redskins can effectively drop seven, then so be it.

This will most likely be a low scoring game. Even with all the large skill players the Jaguars have, the Redskins defense should be able to contain the run and force Leftwich to make bad decisions. Leftwich still isn’t smartest quarterback in the league and he takes plenty of unnecessary risks. The Redskins probably won’t be able to put up more than 13 points, and it will be up to the defense to play their best game of the year. I’m not so sure they have it in them. After this week, it may be time to panic.

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