Maryland Basketball: The Desert Of Northern Florida

Maryland Terrapins (16-5, 2-4 ACC) at
Florida State Seminoles (15-6, 3-4 ACC)
Tallahassee-Leon County Civic Center - Tallahassee, FL

10 games left in the season and it is still abundantly clear that Maryland has to go 6-4 to finish the season. The win against Georgia Tech was nice, considering it was a game that Maryland would have probably lost the last two seasons, but it wasn’t exactly a season saver. Maryland’s next two games could very well determine the outcome of their season. This weekend, the Terps visit Winston-Salem to face a Wake Forest team that is just plain awful. There is no question that even though that game is on the road, Maryland should win it.

Which brings us to tonight’s game. Maryland goes down to Tallahassee to play a game, that on paper, looks winnable. That’s always the case when you play the Seminoles. This is a team that can’t seem to get winning ACC records with any kind of regularity (and when they do, they don’t get invites to the Big Dance for whatever reason). They never have a team stacked with ACC talent. They don’t play aggressive defense, nor do they push the ball real well. Their crowd rarely shows up, and when they do, they aren’t very loud. But for whatever reason, Florida State seems to give certain teams fits at home. Ask Duke. Or Virginia. The Seminoles have become the ACC’s version of the Arizona Cardinals. They're isolated from the rest of the conference in terms of geography. When the schedule comes out, you never mind seeing their name on it. When you’re trying to figure out how many wins your team will have, you always count FSU as one (or two…man I hate this unbalanced schedule). But you never really look forward to actually playing at Tallahassee when the time comes.

Maryland usually doesn’t have those problems. The Terps are 9-5 all-time at the TLCCC, and have won 6 of the last 8. Maryland, for the most part, has avoided the major upset and/or the debilitating season loss for a bubble team at FSU. Remember, when the Terps lost at TLCCC last season, it was neither an upset, nor a crushing season-ending defeat because Maryland’s season was already effectively over.

Playing FSU at such a critical juncture may not be the best situation for Maryland, but they have had an entire week off to fix their starting lineup and other problems. Hopefully, over the past seven days, Gary has taken a look at the film and realized that Greivis Vasquez should not be starting over or getting more minutes than Eric Hayes. After attending the Georgia Tech game in person, I am even more convinced of that than ever. Here’s the more impressive thing. The student body shared the same general consensus. I would have bet before the game that the student body, as stupid as they’ve become over past couple of years since my graduation, would have loved the flashier Vasquez over the calm and collected Hayes. But they don’t. When Vasquez was announced in the starting lineups, several fans started a “We want Hayes” chant. At the beginning of the second half, Vasquez made two terrible plays that resulted in turnovers. Again, all the fans around me wanted to see him benched and started asking for Hayes again. When Vasquez turned it over for a third time, Gary immediately (even before Georgia Tech completed their fast break layup) yanked Hayes off the bench and Vasquez out of the game. The crowd roared. So if the student body realizes how much better Hayes is for this offense, why doesn't Gary?

During the contest with the Yellow Jackets, the difference was so clear. When Hayes was in the game, the offense was efficient. Everything seemed easy. The ball didn’t hit the floor often, there were no uncomfortable 25-foot jump shots and everybody moved without the ball. You don't think James Gist scored a career high 26 points because he was creating off the dribble, do you? Most of his points were thanks in large part to plays that Hayes made to get him the ball underneath the basket for easy deuces. When Vasquez was running the show, the offense ground to a halt. It was back to the “everybody stand around and watch the ball-handler” offense of the past few years. I can’t stand that offense.

I will keep mentioning this Hayes-Vasquez differential until something is done about it. If it feels like I’m writing about it every preview, then you’re right. I am. The difference is so obvious and clear cut. I’m not saying that Vasquez shouldn’t play. He should certainly get his fair share of minutes. I don’t mind emotional players that are aggressive offensively. Every team needs one of those guys. Usually those guys come off the bench. There is no way that Vasquez should be getting 26 minutes a game and Hayes only 23.5. Hayes, who rarely picks up stupid fouls, should easily be able to handle 27-28 minutes a game. I don’t think Vasquez should be getting more than 20 minutes the game. The less time given to a freshman prone to turning the ball over, the better. Just look at the stats. During non-conference play, Vasquez outplayed Hayes. But during conference play, all of Vasquez’s numbers have gone down (except for turnovers, which have gone up) and all of Hayes’ numbers have gone up. Right now, all-around, Hayes is the better player. He’s better defensively. He’s certainly better running the point. He is a pass first player. All he needs is a little more confidence in his shot. And you know something, if he wants to make the extra pass instead of taking an open three, I really don’t mind. Get him in the starting lineup immediately.

As for Florida State, there is only one player Maryland has to concern themselves with. Al Thornton is the most dangerous player on the court for FSU. He’s 6-8, runs as quickly as most guards, and can score from anywhere. He can back down bigger forwards. He can shoot over smaller guards from the outside. His 18.2 ppg is one of the better numbers in the ACC. It’s even more impressive when you consider his supporting cast of nobodies. Isaiah Swann is the only name that anyone will recognize, but he has never lived up to his potential as one of the more highly recruited players that FSU has ever landed. In fact, along with Swann, the rest of FSU’s starting five only average 40 points a game. However, because FSU doesn’t run a lot, and their defense is above average, they are able to shorten the game and limit the number of possessions their opponents get. So despite not scoring a lot, FSU shoots a pretty high percentage from the floor and the 3-pt line. They also shoot free throws very well. If Maryland can get out and run, it’s over. But if they have to play a half court game, it’s going to be trouble.

So am I picking Maryland? No. Until they win on the road, or until they play Wake Forest on the road, I can’t take the Terps away from College Park. Here’s hoping they’ve learned something in their week long layoff.

Florida State 70
Maryland 68

Elsewhere around the ACC…

I was 3-1 last week, neglected to pick the weekend games because Maryland wasn’t playing, and ran the record up to 24-10.

TUESDAY
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest
If the Bees can’t win this game, after losing at home to Virginia Tech, their season is done. At 2-5, their season is most likely over anyway, but a lose to the Freakin’ Deacons would put the nail in the coffin.
Pick: Georgia Tech 76, Wake Forest 67

WEDNESDAY
Miami at North Carolina
No team is going to beat UNC at home. Certainly not Miami. Even though this game reeks of a let down affair after UNC’s blowout road win over Arizona, there is just too much talent on the Heels for Miami to even keep this game close.
Pick: UNC 87, Miami 71

NC State at Virginia Tech
The Textile State’s other ugly sister travels to FIRST PLACE Virginia Tech. First place Virginia Tech? Gee, there’s a sentence I never thought I’d write during the last week of January.
Pick: Virginia Tech 80, NC State 63

THURSDAY
Duke at Virginia
Laugh all you want, but I really do think that Gilbert Arenas could pour in 84 to 85 points against Duke. That is, assuming he can get a set of refs that wouldn’t foul him out almost immediately (like the Duke-Arizona championship game in ’01…the second win in a row that the refs literally awarded the Dookies). His swag is so phenomenal.
Pick: Virginia 75, Duke 70

The Predictor Top 25: 1/29/07

Time for the second Top 25 of the year. A lot of teams suffered only one loss, but still managed to defeat decent opponents during the week. So there is some odd movement in the rankings. Kudos this week to Oklahoma State for getting back on track with two wins. Kudos also to the Hokies, making that 14th ranking I gave them last week look pretty good.

1. North Carolina (19-2), LW-2: UCLA losing helped UNC jump them. Not to mention the 28-point beatdown they put on Arizona in the desert.
2. UCLA (18-2), LW-1: Losing at Stanford won’t seem so bad when the Cardinal make the tournament. It was UCLA’s first bad game of the season.
3. Florida (19-2), LW-3: Near loss to terrible Mississippi State proves that I was correct about the lack of effort from the Gators. They remain here until they stop avoiding upsets or start beating good teams.
4. Wisconsin (21-1), LW-5: I hate doing this. I just can’t justify moving any other team above the Badgers in the rankings at this time.
5. Texas A&M (17-3), LW-4: Losing by two points at Texas Tech is nothing to worry about, especially because the Aggies controlled the game for the most part. They recovered nicely with a solid home win against Oklahoma.
6. Ohio State (18-3), LW-6: Managed to turn two should be blowouts into two nail biters. The Buckeyes are still not playing like a team that is going to get to the Final Four.
7. Kansas (18-3), LW-8: Unlike a lot of their top 25 brethren, the Jayhawks got two easy games and blew their opponents out of the gym.
8. Oregon (19-2), LW-7: Without Aaron Brooks, the loss to UW is explainable. And even though they were down double-digits in Pullman, the Attack managed to peck their way to a tough overtime victory.
9. Oklahoma State (18-3), LW-9: Managed to win their bi-annual dogfight with the Sooners then trounced pesky Iowa State. Now they must find ways to win on the road.
10. Marquette (19-4), LW-12: Despite having an additional loss, I had to put Marquette here because they’ve beaten the Panthers at Pitt.
11. Pittsburgh (19-3), LW-10: What? Wins over Cincinnati and St. John’s are supposed to impress me?
12. Virginia Tech (16-5), LW-14: This is the first place team in the ACC. They just scored two solid road wins. How can you question them anymore?
13. Nevada (19-2), LW-15: Two wins against less than stellar WAC competition, combined with a bunch of losses from the teams in front of them, allow the Wolf Pack to move up a couple of spots. No more until they beat the top two teams in their conference.
14. Washington State (17-4), LW-16: Yes, despite losing at home the Cougars move up. They took care business against Oregon State, then lost a game they shouldn’t have against the Ducks. In case you haven’t noticed, the Ducks are in the top 10. This is a young team that needs to learn to finish games. Plus they move up because all the teams around them lost twice, or lost a game they shouldn’t have.
15. Air Force (19-3), LW-13: Oh, those tricky Mormons! There are worse things than losing at BYU, another solid team in the always good Mountain West.
16. Memphis (17-3), LW-22: I’m doing everything in my power to keep the Tigers down in the standings as they continue their romp through the ridiculously easy CUSA.
17. Texas (15-5), LW-NR: How did I not have these guys ranked last week? That was a mistake. Their five losses are by a combined 25 points.
18. Duke (18-3), LW-23: Due to a malfunction in the rankings, and two very close games at home, the Dookies will have to wait to jump higher.
19. USC (16-6), LW-20: The loss total is starting to climb too high, but it’s hard to punish them for a loss to Stanford if I didn’t punish their Southern California counterparts for the same loss.
20. Kentucky (16-5), LW-19: I’m going to ignore their loss to Georgia and focus on the whooping they laid on Tennessee. Hopefully I don’t regret doing this.
21. Butler (19-2), LW-24: Defeating Loyola (IL) and Detroit isn’t helping their top 25 cause right now.
22. Texas Tech (15-6), LW-25: The victory over A&M doesn’t make any sense, and neither does a loss to Missouri. I think the wins over the Aggies and Jayhawks are more important than the loss to Mizzou.
23. Notre Dame (17-4), LW-17: I didn’t give Pittsburgh any dap for their win for St. John’s. But at least they won. The Irish lost to the Johnnies. So despite the win over Nova, they plummet.
24. Vanderbilt (15-6), LW-NR: The Commodores have arrived. They are 5-2 in the SEC. They’ve scored wins over Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, at Kentucky and at LSU. That’s a pretty good resume for a team that no one knows about. Now we’ll see what happens when they visit Florida this week.
25. Alabama (15-5), LW-11: The Irish don’t plummet as far as the Tide. After it looked like Bama was getting its act together, they get blown out by dreadful Auburn and get whitewashed for a second time – this time at home – by Arkansas.

NEXT TEN: Stanford, Virginia, Clemson, UNLV, Arizona, Kansas State, Boston College, VCU, George Washington, New Mexico State

Maryland Basketball: Buzzing It Short

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (13-5, 2-3 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (15-5, 1-4 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

We’ll keep it short tonight. I’ve been busy at work, trying to fix my car, and I have tickets to the game tonight. So I don’t have a lot of time to discuss a big game for the Terps tonight.

Here’s what I’ll say. Maryland looked very good in the second half in the game against Virginia Tech. At least they looked good when I was watching them. The Colts and Patriots game had my full attention, but I was trying to keep an eye out on the Terps. Moral victories aside, losses are losses. I’m tired of them. A few years ago, there were no moral victories. They either won or they lost. I hate this moral victory crap. That’s the sign of a losing team and losing fanbase.

Maryland has run out of chances for close losses. The Terps need to win, and win now. This is must win game against Tech. With two more on the road after this, a loss here would basically bury Maryland in the conference. The Terps can only afford five more losses (one being in the conference tournament), and this can’t be one of them.

I do owe a tip of the cap to Ekene Ibekwe. I had been dogging his play since the beginning of December, and he’s really been stepping up the last few games. It’s still no reason to hide Bamble Osby on the bench game after game, but it’s at least a reason to keep Ekene on the court. But I think we can all agree now, after two terrible games, it’s time to give much less playing time to Greivis Vasquez and much more to Eric Hayes. All Hayes does is makes plays, run the offense efficiently and hit big shots from time to time. What’s not to like? Is he a loud, obnoxious, chest-beater, “notice me, notice me”, player like Vasquez? No. He gets things done, and then actually gets down the court quickly enough to play defense. I know, a novel concept.

Georgia Tech, after a rocky start, seems to be getting it’s legs - or wings, or thorax or whatever bees have - under them. They have a nice rotation, and the young players are playing much better than the veterans. So much so, that senior Mario West has been buried in the depth chart and is only getting 18.6 mpg. Junior Anthony Morrow is under 17 mpg. Heck, even Ra’Sean Dickey, arguably Tech’s best player the last two seasons, has seen his minutes decrease. Freshmen Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young see more playing time than anyone else on the team. And while Young has certainly earned his time on the court, averaging 15 and 5 a game, Crittenton has made more than his fair share of mistakes. He averages four turnovers a game, and every time I watch him, he seems to be making more than that.

Other than the odd decision to give Crittenton almost 30 minutes a game, the Jackets seem to have a nice rotation and Paul Hewitt is doing another phenomenal job getting everyone on the court. Dickey, Morrow, West and Jeremis Smith still play key roles on this team, and they are all meshing well with the freshmen, so this will be a very tough test for a Maryland team that may or may not show up depending on the position of the moon in the sky. Eh, hopefully me being at the game is worth a six or seven point swing.

Maryland 81
Georgia Tech 77

Elsewhere around the ACC…

After I went 6-0 during the weekend, the record is up to 21-9. That’s much better.

WEDNESDAY
North Carolina at Wake Forest
Once the Tar Heels turn this into a track meet, the Deacons will have no chance. The only question is whether the Heels can break 100 on the road.
Pick: North Carolina 93, Wake Forest 73

Virginia at NC State
We all know that the Hoos can win at home. Now, if they want to be considered a top half ACC team, they have to go out and win on the road. Especially against a team that they are supposed to beat.
Pick: Virginia 75, NC State 67

THURSDAY
Clemson at Duke
Duke just doesn’t match up well against big physical teams. Just see their losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech as examples. I know I’m crazy to pick against Duke at home, particularly with the road team being named Clemson. But you know, I’m feeling the upset.
Pick: Clemson 72, Duke 68

The Predictor Top 25: 1/22/07

Ok, so it’s time for the first Top 25 of the season. Now, the top may look kosher, but the bottom half may look a little different than what you see in the AP. The benefit I have over the AP is that I don’t pre rank the teams (and like I’ve said before, the ESPN poll is worthless, I never pay attention to it). So even though Air Force lost last week to Utah, and the AP is forced to drop them lower than their 13th ranking from last week, I start them this week at 13th based on what they’ve done during the entire season (not just last week) and they will rise and fall accordingly from there

So far, it is apparent that the Pac-10 is the best conference in basketball. The Big XII is right behind with the SEC and ACC trailing. So that was taken into account. That’s why you will see very few Big East or Big Ten teams in the polls this weekend. And I honestly have no idea what to do with all these solid mid-majors. Don’t believe me that the Pac-10 is the best in the nation? Well, first off, their RPI is the statistically better than any other conference. Just look at their top five teams compared to the other Big 6. They are so good that Washington is near the bottom of the league, and they were supposed to be a high seed this year in the NCAA’s.

Pac-10: UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, Arizona, USC
ACC: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Duke, Boston College
Big East: Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State
Big XII: Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
SEC: Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Vanderbilt

Now, are you telling me you wouldn’t take the top 5 teams from the Pac-10 against the top 5 teams from any other conference? If that’s the case, you don’t know college basketball. Here is the initial Top 25:

1. UCLA (17-1): They are the best team in the country’s best conference. Their one loss is on the road to a very good Oregon team. Their defense is the second best in the country and they’re finally finding ways to score.
2. North Carolina (17-2): I still feel the Tar Heels are the best team in the nation. However, they have two losses to UCLA’s one, so I gotta put them here. For now.
3. Florida (17-2): The defending champs seem bored. Too many strange losses and close games. There is no way they should have lost to Florida State. There is no way they should have almost let Ole Miss beat them last week.
4. Texas A&M (16-2): You know me and my fondness for A&M and Billy Gillespie. They play the best defense in the country, and it looks like they’ve found two more scorers (Carter and Kavaliauskas) to go along with Acie Law and Joseph Jones. They just finished blowing OSU off the court this week, and OSU is another top team. And their only losses are at UCLA and at LSU. Nothing wrong with that. If the tournament started right now, the Aggies would be the champions.
5. Wisconsin (19-1): Sure Wisconsin seems good now. But when will they choke in March? The Big Ten is down, so the best Big Ten team is down in the rankings too. This really isn't a top 5 caliber team.
6. Ohio State (16-3): This team would be higher if everyone stopped staring at Greg Oden on the offensive end and actually tried moving the ball around.
7. Oregon (18-1): Seriously, why is no one talking about the Ducks? Their one loss was to USC (although it was at home) and they’re doing more than treading water in the ultra-thick Pac-10. QUACK!
8. Kansas (16-3): Like Florida, Kansas seems to know that they're good and get bored from time to time. The loss to Oral Roberts is still a red flag. The close win against Iowa State, and being outplayed by OSU are two more warnings. Still, they are the second best team in the conference, and get a chance to beat the Aggies at home very soon.
9. Oklahoma State (16-3): Nothing wrong with two losses on the road to KU and A&M. I would have put them higher if the Aggies didn’t blow them out.
10. Pittsburgh (17-3): When are we going to stop buying into the Panthers every year? This team won’t get past weekend number one in March. They are frauds. They have so many holes, and their home loss to Marquette exposed many of them.
11. Alabama (15-3): Just starting to get their feet back under them after the Jermareo Davidson saga the past month. The loss to Vanderbilt is nothing to worry about, because the Commodores are better than most think and may just make an appearance in the rankings next week.
12. Marquette (17-4): Like OSU and Alabama, there is no reason to twist some of their early losses into serious problems. This is a team that should overtake Pitt and win the Big East.
13. Air Force (18-2): The strange loss to Utah notwithstanding, this is the best mid-major team at the moment, and this seemed like the right place to put them. Only A&M and UCLA play better defense
14. Virginia Tech (14-5): Record wise, the Hokies shouldn’t be this high. They probably shouldn’t be in the top 25 at all. They’ve had a bunch of bizarre losses to Marshall and Western Michigan and even last week to FSU. But look at some of the teams below them. Don’t you think Tech would beat a whole bunch of them right now? Only Carolina may be more athletic at all five positions on the floor. We’ll see in the next couple of weeks if I was crazy to put them here, or just ahead of the curve.
15. Nevada (17-2): Anytime you have a Nick Fazekas, you have a chance against the big boys. The lack of a real quality win does worry me a bit though.
16. Washington State (16-3): From the same guy who brought you the 2006 Texas A&M Aggies, I present to you the 2007 Washington State Cougars. This is the sleeper team of the year. I even said as much in my college basketball preview back in November. Go back and look if you don’t believe me. I’ll wait. I was probably the only one in the country who said they would make the tournament back in November. They’ve earned this ranking in the Pac-10. They probably should be higher.
17. Notre Dame (16-3): Nothing special about this team. They just keep winning. A 16-3 record is nothing to sneeze at.
18. Clemson (18-2): Yes, their season could tank at any moment. But right now, they’re 18-2 and the two losses were to Carolina and at Maryland. You can’t drop someone out of the top 25 based on what you think they are going to do. I can only rank them based on what they’ve done so far.
19. Kentucky (15-4): Like a bad case of the herpes, the Wildcats just never seem to go away. They are quietly putting up another solid season in the SEC. I know there are calls for Tubby Smith’s head right now, but I don’t think UK realizes how much worse they could actually do.
20. USC (15-5): In November, I was torn with what to do with the Trojans. I knew they were going to be good next year. But it looks as if they’ve arrived a bit early. They are this year’s Ohio State. With wins against Arizona, Oregon, Washington and Wichita State, there are a lot of reasons to have them here. The competitive losses to WSU, UCLA and Kansas are several more reasons to have them even higher. This team is battle tested and could surprise a few in March.
21. Arizona (13-5): The sum of the parts is better than the whole. The 13-5 record isn’t great, but you have to look at the talent that resides on this roster. They’ve lost a bunch of close games to really good teams. How can you really punish them for losses to USC, UCLA, Oregon, WSU and Virginia? Seriously, how good is the Pac-10? Arizona is one of the best teams in the country and they are only 4-4 in conference. Wow.
22. Memphis (15-3): I have to start them low, otherwise before you know it, they’ll run through their soft conference and end up in the top 10. This is not a top 10 team. They really have no quality wins.
23. Duke (16-3): The only quality wins have come against Air Force and Gonzaga. Both of those wins are starting to diminish in value. They were thumped by Marquette, Georgia Tech and lost at home to Virginia Tech. 23rd seems about right.
24. Butler (17-2): People are way too excited about what they did in November. Losses to Indiana State and Illinois-Chicago show that they are not quite in the same class as Nevada and AFA.
25. Texas Tech (14-5): I’ll admit it. Their win against Kansas is probably the only reason they're in this week. Still, the Red Raiders should be a NCAA tournament team and any time you can knock off one of the big three in the Big XII, you deserve a spot in the rankings.

NEXT FIVE: Texas, LSU, UNLV, Boston College, Indiana
SEVEN MORE: Michigan State, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, VCU, Michigan, Northern Iowa

Maryland Basketball: Not Tech-nically Sound

NR/#22 Maryland Terrapins (15-4, 1-3 ACC) at
#23/#25 Virginia Tech Hokies (13-5, 3-1 ACC)
Cassell Coliseum - Blacksburg, VA

Here we go again. Every time you want to get excited about this team, they perform like they did against Virginia. This team is not going to garner a tournament bid. Right now, we are staring in the face of a 1-5, or even 1-6 start. With games against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and a road trip to Tallahassee on the horizon, do you see any games there that a Maryland fan should feel comfortable about? If Maryland is lucky, they’ll get to the halfway point with a 3-5 conference record. And then they have to play Carolina, at Clemson and twice against Duke. This is not looking good.

The loss to Miami was inexcusable. The loss to Virginia is more understandable, but still a game Maryland should have won. All they had to do is get back on defense. They couldn’t do that. How do you repeatedly not get back on defense after made shots? That’s a fundamental part of the game that the Terps are screwing up. And how in the world do you let Jason Cain get a double-double? I don’t care if Jason Cain is going against my rec-league team, he should not be tallying a double-double.

It is time to bench Greivis Vasquez right now. After his performance against Illinois, everyone anointed him as the next great Maryland point guard. He’s turning into a poor man’s version of John Gilchrist. Everyone points to the last three minutes of the first half, when Vasquez scored nine points, as evidence to why he should be starting. But what about the rest of the game? He couldn’t hit a shot to save his life, and he took terrible shots with no one inside to rebound. This led to Virginia fast breaks. And Vasquez didn’t get back on defense to help stop the fast break his poor shot created. In the half court set, whichever guard he was stuck with drove time and time again. He was guarding Mamadi Diane for most of the first half, until Diane hit two threes. Then he tried guarding Sean Singletary, until Singletary gave him whiplash from his multiple blow-bys. Then he tried guarding Jamil Tucker, who promply followed the new defensive assignment by canning three threes of his own. So Vasquez is a liability on both ends of the court. But I’ve been saying this since the Notre Dame game. More Eric Hayes, less Vasquez.

As for Virginia Tech, this team is legit. Only North Carolina is more athletic than the Hokies. And Tech beat them recently. If you thought Maryland had trouble guarding Virginia, wait ‘til you see the pace the Hokies play at. It’s going to be a one way track meet. It was only a matter of time before Seth Greenburg got this team playing well. Despite curious losses outside of the conference, and a pretty predictable loss to Florida State this week, Tech is tournament type team. Zabien Dowdell, Jamon Gordon and Deron Washington are a fearsome threesome, and Tech goes nine deep. Maryland won’t even hang in for a half.

Virginia Tech 85
Maryland 72

Elsewhere in the ACC…

The record goes up to 15-9, which is not real good at all. I’m slipping this year, I lost all my predicting karma during football season.

SATURDAY
Boston College at Clemson
Hey, let’s not label the Tigers overrated yet. This is still a good team, and I would be surprised if they didn’t make the tourney. On the flip side, Boston College is in big trouble the rest of the season without Sean Williams. Without Williams, John Oates is their only respectable true center, and he isn’t going to scare anybody. Look for Clemson to hit some three pointers early, then go inside to James Mays late for a win.
Pick: Clemson 82, Boston College 75

Miami at Florida State
The Seminoles have that usual feeling about them. They’re going to knock off a couple of teams they shouldn’t in Tallahassee, fool us all into thinking that they could go 8-8 in conference play, then lose games they shouldn’t on the road and finish 5-11. Business as usual in Northern Florida.
Pick: Florida State 70, Miami 65

Duke at NC State
How bad is NC State? Very bad. If they win more than three conference games, it would be a shocker. Sidney Lowe could be a great coach. Really, compared to Herb Sendek, how back can he be? But Sendek left him absolutely nothing when he was fired, and it’s going to take Lowe several seasons to get any talent back to Raleigh.
Pick: Duke 74, NC State 56

Georgia Tech at North Carolina
I really like the Bees. I think this team has the speed and balanced game to play deep into March. However, at times, they look unsure of what to do offensively in half-court sets. So the jury is still out on them a bit. The jury’s verdict has been in for Carolina for a long time now. They. Are. Good.
Pick: North Carolina 88, Georgia Tech 77

SUNDAY
Wake Forest at Virginia
Like NC State, Wake Forest is just plain terrible. It is so odd to see two North Carolina schools play like this. This game will prove why Virginia is still a fringe NCAA tournament team. After blowing out the Terps, Virginia will allow the Deacons to hang in this game for a long time before finally subduing them.
Pick: Virginia 76, Wake Forest 68

On Monday, the initial Predictor Top 25 will come out. Keep an eye out for it.

NFL Playoffs: Rewriting Recent History

Eight down, three to go. So far I’m 7-1, just one Chargers melt down away from being perfect. Plus, I even told friends after I posted these picks that I had re-thought my Chargers pick and said New England was probably going to win. Oh well.

More importantly, the Eagles and Ravens can now join the Giants, Jets, Cowboys and the rest of the NFL on their couches. The playoffs are almost scum free now. One more note on the Ravens before they slide back into obscurity and .500 records. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a team talk so much trash and fall flat on their faces. The other seven teams in the playoffs at least showed some respect for one another (a couple of Patriots not withstanding). The Ravens all week talked not about how they were going to win, but how they were going to go to the Super Bowl. Way to walk the walk fellas. Here’s the kicker: even after they lost, the Ravens were still talking trash. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. You just lose – no, get embarrassed - at home in a playoff game and then you disrespect the team that beats you? Does that make any sense? All I heard Saturday and Sunday from Double Murder and his band of miscreants was how the Colts weren’t all that good, that they didn’t play well, that they were lucky on this play and on that play, etc… Well, if they were so bad, why didn’t you beat them? Pathetic, just pathetic. It will be nice not to hear from those purple draped losers until next August. It was also nice to watch Baltimore lose to their former team…where was that “loud” fan base I kept hearing about all week? And to all the Ravens “fans” who I know read this site: yes, I know the Redskins were miserable this year. But over the last two seasons, the Redskins at least won a playoff game. When you get more than one of THESE, maybe I’ll consider you a real franchise. Until then, enjoy have the Big Ego as your horrible coach, and enjoy one of the biggest fluke seasons in NFL history (that being 2000-2001). Adios until next season, chumps.

Here are the predictions for the two conference championship games. Enjoy.



New Orleans Saints (11-6) at
Chicago Bears (14-3)(-2.5)
3:00 p.m. Soldier Field
NFC Championship Game

The Bears are who I thought they were…they’re who I thought they were. That’s why I made last week’s damn pick. Now if you wanna crown them, then crown their ass. But they are who I thought they were, and I’m not picking them again.

I said last week that the Bears aren’t that great. I said I expected them to beat Seattle, but only by three points. They did exactly that. They won a home playoff game, by three points, to a team that had the majority of their players injured, and was coming off a short week. And they needed overtime and a couple of gift plays to do it. On the other hand, at least they didn’t lose a home playoff game like some other team.

Here’s the dirty little secret, and I said it last week. The Bears are the exact same team this season as the one that lost to Carolina at home in the playoffs last year. The only difference was the competition. The Carolina team they faced in January 2006 was much better than the Seahawks team they faced last week. And the Saints team they face this week is better than either of those teams.

Chicago, for the past two years, has done one thing right consistently: play good defense. They are no longer doing that. Yes, Chicago made the stops when they needed to against Seattle. But they also gave up more than 300 yards. They allowed Seattle to convert six third downs, four of which came in third and long situations. They allowed a Seattle team that was missing two linemen, had both their star quarterback and running back seriously banged up, with receivers that couldn’t catch a ball if it were handed to them, to march up and down the field and score 24 points. And if wasn’t for an untimely interception and some bad play-calling the fourth quarter, we’d be talking more about Seattle this week and very little about the Bears.

In fact, of the four teams left, the Bears are probably playing the worst defense. So if their defense is playing poorly, what do the Bears have left? A quarterback with bipolar disorder, a decent running back platoon, a no-name group of receivers and an above average offensive line. Does this sound like a good number one seed? Sure, they won 14 games so far, but it sure helps to play Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota twice a season.

Now the Bears have to play New Orleans. The Saints aren’t banged up. They aren’t winners of a weak division. They are a good team. Offensively, the Saints are better than the Bears at every position. More importantly, the Saints are quicker, smarter and more aggressive than the Bears defense. Even if New Orleans was facing the Bears defense that showed up early in the season, I would still like the matchups.

No one in the league is playing better football right now than Drew Brees. He is making every play. He’s not making mistakes. He’s got a great offensive front. He’s got weapons everywhere you look. How can any defense stop this team? Without Mike Brown and Tommie Harris, the Bears are in big trouble. They haven’t been the same defense since. The middle has been a lot more open for offenses since Harris has been gone. Brian Urlacher is getting extra attention and he looks lost trying to fight off blocks. That could be a problem against Deuce McAlister. The secondary without Brown has been beaten deep more than a good defense should be. The return of Charles Tillman last week couldn’t help that. Remember what they looked like last year against Steve Smith? Well, factor in that they’ll be playing against Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrance Copper and possibly Joe Horn. Now that’s a scary thought for Bears fans.

Everything in this matchup points to New Orleans winning and winning big. But, since the Bears are at home, and the Saints postseason history is poor to say the least, this game will probably be closer then I expect. So for now, I like the Saints by two scores.
Pick: Saints 30, Bears 20




New England Patriots (14-4) at
Indianapolis Colts (14-4)(-3)
6:30 p.m. RCA Dome
AFC Championship Game

Ah, the main course. This is why you are here, aren’t you?

Already this week I’m tired of hearing the Tom Brady story lines again. How you can’t defeat him in the fourth quarter. How he’s the best postseason quarterback in history. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Look no further than the Chargers game say all the experts.

But what did that game last week really prove to us? It proved that if any NFL team gives another playoff team 50 chances to win a game, eventually, that team is going to do it. If anything, the game last week proved that Tom Brady has never been a great postseason quarterback, but is the recipient of extremely fortunate breaks and somehow wins through forces out of his control. The Chargers were in New England territory the entire first half and came away with only 14 points. In the second half, the Chargers practically abandoned the run, which is obviously their strong suit, in favor of a quarterback making his first playoff start. The subsequent bad throws. The dropped passes. The stupid personal foul penalties. The Marlon McCree interception that he later fumbled. The blown safety coverage on the deep ball to Reche Caldwell. The list goes on and on and on. Which of those things was Brady responsible for, exactly? Which one of those things did he do? None of them, except throw the interception to McCree, which turned out to be the best play of the game for Brady.

In fact, if it wasn’t for Brady’s terrible game, the Patriots would have won easily. They wouldn’t have needed a late fourth quarter comeback. Just look at all the dumb mistakes the Chargers made. Brady was the reason that the Patriots were eight points behind in the first place. Yes, he played well in the second half of the fourth quarter. But what about the other 3 ½ quarters? Do those not count anymore? The Chargers handed New England the game time and time again, only to have it returned back by New England. Eventually, the Patriots got tired of giving it back to San Diego and hung on to win the game. I say to all the experts to look at that San Diego game as another reason why Brady isn’t close to the best quarterback in NFL history.

Now the Patriots get the Colts. Cue up the running headlines: Manning can’t beat Brady. Dungy can’t beat Belichick. Manning always chokes. The Colts can’t get past New England when it really matters. Again, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Everyone at BostonSPN will remind you over and over again. From the analysts to the hosts to the Sports Dork to anyone else who can find a way to get on camera or a couple of inches on their webpage.

Last I checked, the Colts had won two in a row against better New England teams. Both of those games were in the regular season, but they were both in Foxboro. And yes, the Patriots have beaten the Colts in two postseason games recently. However, like those regular season games, both came in New England. In other words, those were home games for the Patriots. Games they were supposed to win. This will be the first matchup of these teams at the RCA Dome in five years.

The Colts are a completely different team on the Dome carpet than they are outside. Like the Rams of a few years ago, the Colts are much quicker, much smoother and much better indoors. This will be the first chance against New England in the playoffs for them to prove it. Just look at the home record of 9-0 to show what they’ve done against the rest of the NFL at their place.

There are several areas that New England is severely mismatched here. First, the crowd noise will be reversed. No more home field advantage means more confusion on offense for New England. Look how bad they were at timid and laid back San Diego. Now they have to play against a fan base thirsty for blood. I bet the Indianapolis crowd is going to be very similar to the Cole Field House crowd against Duke in 2002. That was the year after the Terps blew the 10-point lead in 54 seconds at home and later had the refs take the National Semifinals game away from them. I’ve never been to a sporting event like that 2002 game. Instead of nervous anticipation, the crowd was angry. I mean really pissed off before the game even started. We wanted revenge and we wanted badly. It was like an unruly mob. I’ve never been in a louder arena. Ever. And that includes rock concerts. That game changed the season for both Maryland and Duke. That huge win for Maryland propelled them six weeks later to their first championship. The Dookies never recovered from their beating, and they were bounced by Indiana (hmm…coming full circle).

Now before I go on about Juan Dixon and Byron Mouton for another five minutes, what was I talking about? Oh yes, football. The advantages that the Colts offense has over New England’s defense will be more prevalent indoors than in Foxboro. The Colts speed, which was neutralized by the conditions and the purposely kept high grass, will be evident this Sunday on the nice quick field turf and the comfortable wind chill of 72 degrees. The Colts receivers have always created mismatches against the New England secondary, but now the Colts get to seriously exploit that on their home turf. If Manning has any time to throw, he should pick this defense apart. What the Patriots defense has in smarts and aggressiveness, they lack in overall talent. This secondary scares nobody. The receivers will be open. It’s going to be up to the Colts line to give their quarterback a couple of seconds to find them. Plus, Manning has had two terrible games in a row. How many times can you recall Manning having three bad performances in a row?

Now, on the other side of the ball, the quickness will again be a factor working against New England. In case you haven’t noticed, the Colts defense is playing lights out. Against the Chiefs, everyone thought this was a fluke due to Kansas City running straight into the teeth of the Indy defense. So what’s the excuse this week? The Colts defense went on the road and gave up six points. They completely nullified the drug dealing running back for the Ravens and made Steve McNair look even more pedestrian than he usually does. Maybe, just maybe, having three quarters of the starting secondary injured during the regular season hurt the Colts defense a little bit (something I’ve been saying since November). The reason the Colts were giving up so many rushing yards is because the reserve safeties were playing so far back on running plays. Dungy didn’t want them creeping up to the line and getting burned deep. So he kept them back. Now with Bob Sanders and Nick Harper back, the Colts are able to put eight in the box and not get burned deep in the air at the same time. Yes, I think it has been proven that Bob Sanders really does mean that much to the Colts defense. This defense, while undersized, is lightning quick everywhere. No more so than at defensive end with Dwight Freeney. Matt Light is going to get abused this weekend. The speed of the Colts defense is going to become apparent on that artificial turf.

The final advantage is in the kicking game. The Patriots, for some unknown reason, decided to release Adam Vinatieri. I can’t begin to fathom why they would do this, and then replace him with a rookie. I have no idea. I’ll tell you this though. I don’t agree with Belichick being named one of the games greatest coaches, or Brady one of the games greatest quarterbacks. But Adam Vinatieri is the NFL’s greatest clutch field goal kicker of all-time. Period. End of story. The Colts signing Vinatieri may prove to be the biggest free agent acquisition this past offseason. If this game is close at the end, the Patriots are done. The big advantage the Pats had over Indianapolis for several years is now standing on the opposing sideline.

I already compared the Colts and this game to Maryland’s game against Duke in 2002. But that’s not really good enough. Let me make another comparison, one that Bostonians can understand. The New England Patriots right now are playing the role of the 2004 New York Yankees (albeit without the 27 championships). On the flip side, it’s the Colts playing the role of the 2004 Red Sox. We all knew that the Red Sox had too much talent to lose every single season. We knew that they would break through eventually. And we all knew, in our own way, that the Red Sox would have to go through their arch-nemesis to do it. Lo and behold, in 2004, after years of failing against the Yanks, they got another chance. The Red Sox completed one of the greatest comebacks in the history of sports, while at the same time, lowering the Yankees as a franchise off their pedestal. The Yankees have never been the same team since. They learned humility. Well, this is the exact same situation for the NFL. The Colts are now the tormented team. They have too much talent to keep going out early every season. They are going to win a Super Bowl eventually. But they’re going to have to go through New England to do it. And it’s time for New England to learn that same humility. After years of failing, the Colts get another chance, and I think they are going to do it.

Since day one of this NFL season, I’ve been telling you the Colts are going to win it all. A lot of experts said the same thing in August and September, but bailed on the Colts as soon as trouble showed up in November. In fact, many of them picked the Colts to lose at home to Kansas City. And all of them picked the Colts to lose at Baltimore. Meanwhile, I’ve been here all along, warning all of you not to sleep on the Colts. Telling you that they were the NFL’s best team. No one outside of the Hoosier State listened. I’m not going to do my “I Told You So” song and dance yet, but if the Colts win, you can expect it in two weeks during my Super Bowl preview. If the Patriots pull this one out, then maybe I’ll have to start buying into this whole Belichick-Brady mythology. I just don’t see it happening. I’m already practicing my dance.
Pick: Colts 24, Patriots 17

Maryland Basketball: The Long And Winding Road

NR/#22 Maryland Terrapins (15-3, 1-2 ACC) at
Virginia Cavaliers (9-6, 1-2 ACC)
John Paul Jones Center - Charlottesville, VA

Saturday’s game showed us that the law of averages does tend to balance out college basketball. The Terps followed a night when they shot 22% and then turned around and shot 63%. Neither game is indicative of what Maryland can do. They are obviously much better than a 22% shooting, 58 point scoring team. And they are not going to shoot 63% from the floor every night either.

So why did they shoot so well against a good Clemson team and so poorly against a bad Miami team? Shot selection. Maryland figured they could jack up any shot they wanted to against Miami and it would go in. That’s the problem with playing five softies in a row before conference play starts. Against American, UMKC and Iona, those shots went in. If they didn’t go in, then James Gist and Ekene Ibekwe would get rebounds over inferior post players. In the ACC, a bad shooting night, coupled with big athletic guys inside, usually means a loss.

Against Clemson, the ball movement and aggressiveness of the Maryland offense returned. They looked like they did against Michigan State and Illinois. They ran nice set plays out of the baseline flex. They moved the ball around the perimeter with ease. They attacked inside against a pretty decent group of forwards. Most importantly, they didn’t rush up threes 10 seconds into a possession.

Ibekwe, who looked horrible against Miami, played his best game in years against the Paw Prints. I said someone needed to light a fire under his ass. It seemed his poor performance against the Canes woke him up and he played inspired against the Tigers. There is no reason he can’t play like that every night if he motivates himself. Will he get 20 and 10 every game? No, probably not. But there is no reason he can’t average 15 and 7 a game from here on out. Gist, as usual, played lights out inside, cleaning up when Ibekwe couldn’t. Strawberry forced the guards to look inside first before settling for jump shots. And Greivis Vasquez finally realized, “Hey, I’m a freshman, maybe I should defer some shots to the guys who have been playing four years.” If that Maryland team shows up every night in conference, then Maryland will win at least 10 conference games.

Maryland’s mental toughness will be tested in the next two weeks. Four of the next five are on the road. They play two in the Commonwealth, before a tough home game against the Bees, followed by more road games in two places Maryland usually doesn’t play well: The Joel and the TLCCC. Want to know the reason Maryland hasn’t made the tournament in the last two years? Well, their 4-12 road record is one place to start looking. Maryland, at the very least, needs to beat GTech at home and find a way to split the road games.

Two of those four road wins the past seasons have come in Charlottesville. This is odd considering the Jekyll and Hyde routine that the Cavaliers usually pull. The Jekyll tends to show up at home, while the unpredictable Hyde comes out for road games. Hence, solid wins at home against Arizona and Gonzaga (which is looking less and less like a quality win after the Zags lost their seventh game of the year…this one to St. Mary’s College). It also explains their weird losses away from the new John Paul Jones Center to Appalachian State and Utah (a team that is dead last in the Mountain West).

I thought the Cavaliers were past all this. First off, Pete Gillen is long gone, as he’s stuck doing color commentary for CAA games on the local Fox affiliate. Poor Pete. Second, the Cavs have a bunch of veteran players for the first time in years. With Sean Singletary, Maryland killer J.R. Reynolds, Adrian Joseph and Tunji Soroye, I thought the Cavs would be able to stop laying eggs on other courts. That’s why I picked them to finish fifth in the conference and make the NCAA Tournament this season. A month ago, that was looking likely. Now I’m not so sure.

Virginia hasn’t beaten Maryland in three years, which is pathetic considering the state of Maryland’s program during that time span. That includes last year’s final game ever at University Hall. If Virginia couldn’t beat Maryland then, while closing down their building, then you have to wonder if Gary just has their number.

Despite the Hoos usual roller-coaster like season, here’s what we do know about them. On any given night, they have the potential to beat any ACC team. They hung with Carolina and Boston College for 35 minutes before finally falling in their last two games. If Virginia plays well, it is hard to beat them. Singletary, once again, is the team’s returning star. The junior continues to dominate the ACC as he averages 18.6 ppg and 5 apg. Reynolds, his sidekick, also scores at will with 16 ppg. But here is the problem for Virginia. They still haven’t found a third scorer to compliment Singletary and Reynolds. More importantly, they haven’t found a decent big man to compliment Singletary and Reynolds.

In a conference with good big men everywhere (Hansbrough, Gist, Thornton, Dickey, S.Williams, etc…), Virginia has the worst front court in the league. You aren’t going to scare any team, ACC or otherwise, with a front court consisting of the Dirty Sanchez (Jason Cain), Mamadi Diane and chunky Euro-trash Laurynas Mikalauskas. If you have a Baltic player who can’t shoot threes, what good is he?

Offensively, there should be no contest inside for Maryland. If they work the ball to Gist and Ibekwe the way they did against Clemson, they should both leave the new arena with 20 plus points. There is no one inside that can stop them. But what about defensively? The front court rotation of Gist, Ibekwe and Osby should be able to stop Virginia’s combination. But how do you stop the backcourt?

The key to stopping Virginia is stopping J.R. Reynolds. Singletary is their best player. I don’t care who he is playing, he’s going to get his points. He’s a special player and there’s really no point in trying to scheme to stop him. Singletary alone can’t beat you. He needs a second scorer. In the past, Maryland has focused too much on Singletary and has allowed Reynolds to eat them up. It’s been proven, at least this season, if you stop Reynolds from scoring, then more often than not, Virginia loses. He scored 7 in a loss to Purdue, 9 in the loss to Appalachian State, 9 in the near loss to some small school named Puerto Rico – Mayaguez and 14 in a loss to Stanford. Reynolds is a spot up shooter that has trouble creating. He is someone Maryland can stop. Stick Strawberry on him instead of Singletary. If you put Jones or one of the freshmen on Reynolds, then it’s going to be a long night. Put Strawberry on Reynolds, hope Adrian Joseph doesn’t have a career night, and there should be no reason Maryland can’t win this game.

Maryland 77
Virginia 71

Elsewhere in the ACC…

After a 4-2 weekend, the record now stands at 12-7. Not great, but getting better.

TUESDAY
Miami at Boston College
Shhhhhhhh…very, very quietly, Boston College has started conference play with a 4-0 record and is alone in first place. No reason to think they’ll get that first loss here.
Pick: Boston College 78, Miami 61

WEDNESDAY
North Carolina at Clemson
Look, we all know Clemson isn’t as good as their 17-0 start. Should they make the tournament? Yes. Should Oliver Purnell be fired if they don’t? Yes. Can they hang with a pissed of Roy Williams and his high-flying NBA team? No.
Pick: UNC 86, Clemson 75

Virginia Tech at Florida State
Ok, the Hokies have proven that they are a legit force in the ACC this year. Here’s another chance for them to prove it. They’ve beaten Duke. They’ve beaten UNC. This here is a game that fringe teams like Tech usually lose. They overlook FSU, or they think they’re a great team after two big wins, and next thing you know, you have students rushing the court in Tallahassee. I’m giving the Hokies the benefit of the doubt.
Pick: Virginia Tech 74, Florida State 69

THURSDAY
Wake Forest at Duke
Just when I was getting excited about the Dookies possibly going winless in conference play, I forgot to check my ACC schedule. Seems like the big wigs in The Triangle felt bad for giving Ratface the tough opening slate of VPI and Georgia Tech. So they threw the three worst teams in the conference on his schedule afterwards. We’ll learn more about Duke next week when they play Clemson and BC.
Pick: Duke 75, Wake Forest 60

Maryland Basketball: Undefeated? Unbelievable…

#17/14 Clemson Tigers (17-0, 3-0 ACC) at
NR/#25 Maryland Terrapins (14-3, 0-2 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

I think I speak for all Maryland fans when I say “What the fuck?” There is no other way to put it. This team has been terrible in conference play the last two seasons, and they’ve had bad games before that, even during the best years. But since I’ve been religiously watching Maryland basketball, and that goes back to the early 90’s, I haven’t seen an offensive performance like that since the probation years. 58 points against Miami? Are you serious?

I really don’t need to say more than has already been said. 15 turnovers and 13 field goals isn’t going to cut it. Having only Mike Jones and James Gist show up every night is going to kill this team. Multiple stretches of seven minutes or longer without scoring is going to win you a grand total of zero conference games. This isn’t Iona or UMKC anymore. You have to have some resemblance of an inside game to win in the ACC. Not a great inside game, but preferably an existent inside game.

The last time I can remember a Gary Williams team not scoring for more than seven minutes at a time was in the 1999 tournament game against St. John’s. They didn’t have a field goal in the final nine or ten minutes of the first half. But they at least woke up and mustered some sort of fight in the second half. Against Miami, there was nothing. Gist was fighting. Jones was the only one hitting shots. Where was the rest of the team? Vasquez was busy acting like a true freshman, rushing up unnecessary threes ten seconds into a possession. By the way, Greivis and I hit the same number of three pointers on Wednesday. Bamble Osby, the only person on this team that can grab a rebound, was kept on the bench for the majority of the second half. Why? Why do we have to see 20 minutes of Will Bowers each game? What has he ever done to warrant more than five minutes off the bench? He can’t jump, he can’t move and he can’t catch or hold onto the ball. And he looks like Muggsy Bogues trying to grab a rebound out there. Eventually, he’s going to have to accomplish something other than being seven feet tall. That’s the only reason he has a jersey on right now. If he was 6’7”, he wouldn’t be playing in the ACC…he’d probably be sitting on the bench at some D-II school. And it is finally time to bench Ekene Ibekwe. Either that, or light a fire under his ass and tell him to give a damn.

Through 17 games, it has become apparent that the starting lineup should look like this: Hayes, Jones, Strawberry, Gist and Osby. Gist and Osby may not be the most talented big men in the league, but they fight hard, they don’t wander outside too much, they don’t settle for awkward jumpers and they know how to box out. Jones and Strawberry are the scorers and they have to be out there (although I’m concerned about Straw…it looked like he was hurt the other night, he wasn’t running like he usually does and seemed very sluggish). Hayes has to be the point guard. He doesn’t take terrible shots and he is much better with the ball than Vasquez. Parrish Brown should be the sixth man because he at least is playing with some heart. Ibekwe should follow him. Then Vasquez. Bowers shouldn’t be allowed off the bench. How in the world do you get outrebounded, at home, by a Miami team with their only scholarship player who averages more than six rebounds a game out with an injury? How???

I’d like to chalk it up as an extremely bad game, and every team is allowed to have a few during the course of a season. But Miami is plain awful, and they didn’t play well either. So I really don’t know what to make of this game. For right now, we’ll count it as an anomaly. We’ll know shortly if it’s a telling sign for the season.

Now to the Clemson Tigers. It hasn’t been pretty the last two years for Maryland against Oliver Purnell’s bunch. In fact, the Tigers have been one of the reasons the Terps haven’t sniffed the NCAA tournament in the past two seasons. And despite losing a couple of key players, the Tigers are 17-0, the only undefeated team in Division 1 basketball. How big of a surprise is this? Well, at the beginning of the season, if you were to ask me to guess the last undefeated team in the country, and you narrowed my choices down to ACC teams that weren’t located in Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina, I still wouldn’t have even thought of the Tigers.

How have they done it? Well, they’ve been playing a bunch bad teams from good conferences and a bunch of half-decent teams from bad conference. In other words, they haven’t really played a tough schedule. They’ve beaten Mississippi State, Minnesota, South Carolina and Georgia, but none of those teams are going dancing in March. They’ve beaten Old Dominion, a team that could surprise some people out of the CAA, but they did so by only four. Their best win may have come against Appalachian State. In November, the Fightin' Paw Prints beat the Mountaineers by 30, the same Mountaineers that beat Virginia later in the season. But even with their soft non-conference schedule, they’ve already won two ACC road games (against FSU and N.C. State…both teams that will be in the bottom third of the league in two months) and they escaped with a last-second win over Georgia Tech at home. So 17-0 is 17-0. They are unbeaten, the only such team in the country, and they are starting to rack up conference victories.

Clemson’s overall stats aren’t going to overwhelm anyone. 77 points a game is good, but not great. A team three point percentage of 34% is below the national averages. They don’t shoot free throws well (61.6%) and the assist/turnover ratio (1.1/1) is not pretty.

Purnell is basically pulling off one of the greatest smoke and mirrors acts in recent memory. For the first time during his tenure at Clemson, Purnell has a deep team. There isn’t a lot of talent on the roster, but there are a lot of players who are good, solid ACC guys. That hasn’t been the case for CU since Rick Barnes left for Texas. There are nine players on this roster that are averaging more than 10 minutes a game. Again, these aren’t guys you are going to see on the All-American rosters, but they fit in Purnell’s scheme and play well enough to get the job done in the ACC.

So far, the nine guys seeing plenty of playing time are producing, which I’m sure makes it easy for Purnell to keep them in the rotation. Some of the names look familiar. Vernon Hamilton (30.1 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 4 apg), Cliff Hammonds (30.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 3.6 apg), James Mays (25.3 mpg, 13 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Sam Perry (17.6 mpg, 5 ppg, 3 rpg) are all still producing for the Tigers. In fact, Hammonds and Hamilton have nearly identical numbers to the ones they put up last season. However, there are two important names most won’t remember. Sophomore K.C. Rivers (26.5 mpg, 15 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and freshman Trevor Booker (23.6 mpg, 10 ppg, 7 rpg) are the two main reasons the 06-07 Tigers are radically different from the 1996-2005 Tigers. Rivers, who did see 23 unspectacular minutes a game last season, has doubled his scoring output this year. In fact, he has scored in double digits in each of Clemson’s first 17 games. I don’t care who you play, that’s impressive. Booker, at 6-7 and 220 lbs is Purnell’s new Sharrod Ford. He’s a banger inside who fights hard for rebounds, does the dirty work, and gets the crowd into the game. The two of them, combined with the four veterans and some other roll players, have turned Clemson from laughing stock to highly ranked in the course of two months.

So how does Maryland win. Well, the mathematician in me says they should try as many threes as possible. If averages balance out, there is no way they should shoot only 22% from the field again, right. Seriously though, Maryland wins by forcing turnovers. The Terps did a good job pressuring Miami into taking bad shots and having bad possessions, but they didn’t create enough fast break turnovers. Clemson is a team, that despite its gaudy record, turns the ball over too much. The Terps need some fast break points to jump start this offense. And someone needs to grab a rebound. Anybody…

Maryland 72
Clemson 69

Elsewhere around the ACC…

It’s the first true ACC weekend, as all 12 teams are in conference play. The record now stands at 8-5 as we continue on…

SATURDAY
NC State at Wake Forest
Two of the three worst teams in the conference. And who ever thought we’d be saying that about two of the Carolina teams in the same season?
Pick: Wake Forest 69, NC State 62

Virginia at Boston College
Virginia is going to be like the Atlanta Falcons. I know it. They are the team that is going to single-handedly mess up my record. They look awful against Stanford, but then play 35 good minutes against UNC before losing a tight one. I don’t know, you figure them out. I’m not taking them on the road.
Pick: Boston College 80, Virginia 69

North Carolina at Virginia Tech
If the Hokies are going to be considered a legitimate contender in the ACC, then what better way to do so than beating the #1 team in the country at home? I think this game is going to be much closer than a lot of people think. The only team that matches up athletically to UNC are the Hokies. Look for a run-and-gun affair that UNC has to pull out in the final few minutes.
Pick: UNC 86, Virginia Tech 79

Florida State at Georgia Tech
Even though this games has all the potential letdown feelings for the Techsters, I have a hard time picking the Noles on the road. A lot of people like this FSU team, but I really don’t see what the fuss is about. They beat Florida, but have looked terrible against everyone else. This one should be a close, but ugly one.
Pick: Georgia Tech 68, FSU 64

SUNDAY
Duke at Miami
Here’s the question we need to start asking. If Duke goes 6-10 in conference play, which is a very real possibility, do they get an invitation to the Dance? If that’s the case, then there is no way they should get an invite. Of course, the NCAA would never allow that. The Dookies could probably go 4-12 and still get invited. This is, by far, the worst Duke team since the 1995 version. That was the year that Coach K had “back-surgery” so he wouldn’t be tainted with Duke’s lousy play that season. Way to go down with the ship, Ratface.
Pick: Duke 77, Miami 64

NFL Playoffs: Isn't It Time To Move On?

Wild card weekend was fantastic. Not only did I go 4-0, but the Jets, Giants and Cowboys were all shown the door. Perfect. Couldn’t have been better. I feel sorry for Seahawks fans. If you aren’t a hardcore football fan, or didn’t stay up until 3 a.m. to watch the game, you probably wouldn’t know that the Seahawks won. You would certainly know the Cowboys lost and that Tony Romo was to blame. Which is great! But for all three NFL carrying networks to devote pre/post game coverage to everything Romo is, as usual, disgusting. My favorite quote, and it again comes from ESPN’s Fat Ass host himself, was: “Look, I don’t care who you are, but if you don’t feel for Tony Romo, then you don’t have a pulse.” Well, Mrs. Berman, I think it’s wonderful that Romo screwed his team and I enjoyed seeing him cry very much. It was more satisfying than watching J.J. Redick cry last March and almost as good as watching Jason Williams unable to keep from bawling after Duke choked against Indiana in 2002. I didn’t feel bad for him for one second. And last I checked, my pulse was just fine, thank you.

See, ESPN thinks this entire country is love with Dallas (or New England, Philadelphia and New York). When in reality, the majority of the country, outside those cities and ESPN’s lair, hates those teams. Absolutely despises them. Not because they are good. Not because they are jealous. But because ESPN refuses to stop talking about them 24/7 until they are removed from play. And even then ESPN doesn’t stop talking about it. Dear God when will another national sports network pop up. I’m still hoping one day to have that happen and watch ESPN try and fail to compete. They cover 10% of major league teams. Any national sports network that would do a better job of covering the majority of teams in the major leagues and colleges would crush ESPN. One day maybe. Anyway, my point was that I could emphasize with Seattle fans. The Redskins had a similar scenario last season after beating Tampa Bay. No one talked about the fact the Redskins won, just Sean Taylor spitting on someone. Give Seattle credit. They were the better team for the majority of that game. We’ll get back to Seattle in a minute. First, some other picks. Enjoy.

SATURDAY
Indianapolis Colts (13-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)(-4)
4:30 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
There aren’t many bad things about working at the local sports station. I have access to hundreds of feeds. I can practically watch any pro or college game I want. I meet athletes, coaches and famous personalities on a weekly basis. I literally get paid to watch sports. And I get free cable at home!

One of the downsides of working at a sports station that services Washington and Baltimore are the obnoxious Ravens fans who work there. That and the fact that I occasionally have to devout part of my day to work on Ravens related materials. Don’t get me wrong. The Redskins fans almost outnumber the Baltimorons two to one. But the Ratbirds fans still manage to make their presence felt from time to time.

Anyhow, you get to hear all the bitching about how Indianapolis stole their team and how the Colts left town in the middle of the night. Well, that’s all true. However, Baltimorons, maybe if you were better fans (or even decent fans) your team wouldn’t have to sneak out of town in the cover of a blizzard to flee your crime-infested city. And yes, I’m sorry that Indianapolis stole your team. But, and cue Alanis Morrisette here, isn’t it ironic that the same fan base that complains that one city stole their team, did the exact same thing no less than 12 years later? The Browns moving to Baltimore couldn’t be more similar to the Colts leaving for the Midwest unless the Browns used Mayflower vans to find their way to Owings Mills. NO MORE COMPLAINING. NO ONE CARES. Either root for the Colts, or root for your stolen team. If you can’t decide because “you still feel loyalty to the Colts,” then you can go screw yourself. Either way, I’m tired of hearing about it.

My opinion, and I’ve stated it before, is Baltimore is extremely lucky to even have the Ravens. They should never been allowed to move to Baltimore. First off, in a city that has crime problems out the wazoo, the NFL allowed a double-murder, several drug dealers and a referee assaulter to further worsen Baltimore’s problems. Secondly, the NFL screwed the Redskins out of hundreds of millions of advertising and other endorsements in territory that was rightly theirs. Finally, why would you let a city that already ruined and chased one team away to have a chance to do it a second time? Does any of this make sense?

So the word around the Ravens corner of the office is this would be a very sweet victory for the Big Ego, his junior criminals and the slum known as Baltimore. So if that’s the feeling, then the opposite must be true as well. If Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning and the Super Bowl bound Colts can go into Baltimore and destroy a team in a city that it used to call home, a team that has all but been anointed Super Bowl Champions by everyone working at that junior outfit known as The Sun, how lousy will that fan base feel the next day? The next week? The rest of the year? I would enjoy every minute of it. And I wouldn’t feel for them at all. And yes Fat Ass Berman, my pulse is just fine.
Pick: Colts 27, Ravens 13

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (10-6)(-5)
8:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
So the last bastion of the NFC East is the Philadelphia Eagles? Huh, didn’t see that one coming. Even though I was 4-0 this past week and routinely trump the experts making predictions, I’m not perfect. Still, anyone who thinks this Eagles team is good enough to make it through to the Super Bowl is still smoking something. The Eagles happened to get lucky enough to face a pathetic Giants team that shouldn’t have been in the playoffs and then got lucky enough to escape, at home, by three points on a last-second field goal. Oh my goodness, look out for the Eagles! Maybe for their next trick they could lose to Tampa. Oh, that’s right, they already did that this season.

Fortunately, the Eagles have to face much tougher competition this week. And they have to do it on the road. In a place they already lost not more than three months ago. Since that time, the Saints have steadily gotten better week by week. The same cannot be said for the Eagles. So I see no reason to believe that the result of that October game is going to be any different than the one now. But, for arguments sake, let’s take a look at some numbers.

In terms of total yards, there is no better offense in the game than the one the Saints possess. Only the Colts and Chargers score more points a game. The Eagles on the other hand, possess a defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of yards and points allowed. However, against teams with winning records, both yards and points allowed go up dramatically for Philadelphia. Something along the lines of 40%. The Saints are currently 10-6. So they possess that winning record. Their offense is already scary enough. Add in the Eagles mediocre defense, with a penchant to give up long plays (against and offense that has a lot of home run hitters) and things could get ugly.

The Saints, more so than any team remaining in the playoffs, have a terrific home field advantage. This is a team to root for. I don’t feel for Tony Romo’s Cowboys, or the city of Baltimore, but how can you not feel for a team like Nawlins? I’ll give the Eagles the benefit of the doubt and I’ll say that they’ll hang in this game longer than they should. But the home crowd wills the Saints to their second ever playoff victory.
Pick: Saints 24, Eagles 20

SUNDAY
Seattle Seahawks (10-7) vs. Chicago Bears (13-3)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
Now, back to the Seahawks. No, Seattle didn’t look great last Saturday. They looked better than Dallas, but Detroit has looked better than Dallas recently. So that’s not saying much. I guess I have to come to realization that Seattle, and more importantly, Matt Hasselbeck are never going to get their act together this season. It’s a shame. If their offense is functioning properly, it is one of the more entertaining ones to watch.

As for the Bears, I don’t see what all the fuss is about. Yeah sure, the 13-3 record is nice. But Chicago was 11-5 last season, had the bye week and then got bounced in the second round by a superior Carolina team. This is the exact same Chicago team. This team is no better or no worse. The Bears still have horrible and obvious offensive deficiencies across the board. The only difference from the 2006 playoffs is the opponent they’re facing.

The Seahawks got their butts kicked 37-6 in Chicago early in the season. Everyone is quick to point out that Shaun Alexander didn’t play in that game. But is Alexander really worth 31 points? He’s still one of the best backs in the league, but no one is worth 31 points by themselves. This situation reminds me of the 91-92 Redskins. Early in the season, the Redskins beat the Lions 45-0 without Barry Sanders in the lineup. Before the two teams met in the NFC Championship game, with Sanders healthy and ready to go, there were many experts who believed that the Lions (who finished the season on a tear and were the hottest team going in to the playoff) would not only win but win comfortably. They believed the 45-0 game was an aberration because of Sanders’ absence. They believed he would make the difference.

In a way, those experts were right. Sanders did make a difference. The Lions didn’t lose by 45 points again. They only lost by 31 (again proving my theory that the 91-92 Redskins were the third best team in NFL history). So if Barry Sanders, who in my opinion is the greatest running back in NFL history, is only worth two touchdowns, what is Alexander worth to Seattle? One touchdown? 10 points maybe?

I think it will be close because back in the week 4, the Bears were riding high. Now, on offense, they have absolutely no confidence. So even though I don’t expect Seattle’s offense to score much more than they did in week 4, there is absolutely no way the Bears are putting up anything close to 37 points. It’s not going to happen. I almost want to pick the Seattle upset, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it happened. I just wouldn’t count on it.
Pick: Bears 16, Seahawks 13

New England Patriots (13-4) vs. San Diego Chargers (14-2)(-4.5)
4:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Here is the only question that needs asking: Can Marty Schottenheimer get out of his own way and let LaDainian Tomlinson win this game for him? Marty has gone far too long without screwing something up. This is still the same old Marty that can’t win big games. This is the same Marty that continues to play conservative or play the complete opposite of what his team is designed to do. Just look no farther than last season. The Chargers were more talented than they were this season. And they didn’t even make the playoffs. Why? Terrible coaching.

So far in 2006-07, Marty has managed not to trip himself up. It just feels like it’s going to happen eventually. Really, does the mental image of Schottenheimer holding up the Lombardi Trophy seem right to anyone? Can anyone actually picture that? I can’t either. I believe, before these playoffs are said and done, we’re going to see the real Marty. He’s going to over prepare. He’s going to think that the opposing coach will expect him to run LT, and end up countering by passing 40 times a game with one of the league’s worst quarterbacks. Or, he is going to run into a terrific offense (like Indianapolis’…hint, hint) and play for field goals and play not to lose. It’s going to happen, trust me. And it’s going to happen sooner rather than later.

The one positive about facing Bill Belichick (Why Belichick isn’t suspended is beyond me…he punched two cameramen in plain sight without even so much as a reprimand. How come that isn’t on ESPN nonstop?) is that there is no way that Marty can outthink the second coming of Pop Warner (eye roll). Now stay with me here, Marty will think that Belichick will be expecting him to run the ball 70% of the time. So Marty will decide to counter with a pass heavy game plan. Then he’ll remember that Belichick is a much better coach than he is and will expect him to change his game plan. So then Marty will stick with the run game. Belichick, on the other hand, will realize that Schottenheimer will try to outthink himself, so…you know what, screw this. New England is not as good as their record indicates, no team has success traveling 3,000 miles for a playoff game and San Diego is too talented to go one and done. Too talented even for Marty to screw up. That will come next week. Most likely.
Pick: Chargers 31, Patriots 21

Maryland Basketball: From Me To U

Miami Hurricanes (8-8, 1-1 ACC) at
NR/#25 Maryland Terrapins (14-2, 0-1)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

When we last saw Maryland, they were failing to rebound in a close loss in the ACC hinterlands of Chestnut Hill. Now supposedly, the Terps have won five games since then. Looking at the list of opponents, I see no reason to mention any of those teams, except maybe Siena. And even that’s a stretch to mention as a quality opponent. It’s one of those MAAC teams that pretend to be mid-majors when they are really just a small time conference. Until further notice, the MAAC is Manhattan and then everybody else. Can we stop playing two or three teams from this conference every year, please? If we are going to make an attempt to play mid-major teams, can we at least play teams from mid-major conferences? We have the A-10, CAA, Conference USA and MAC teams all around us. Let’s play some of those teams. And it wouldn’t kill us to set up home and homes with West Virginia, Villanova or Pitt.

Anyway, Maryland deserved their chance to beat up on some patsies. Every team does it. The Terps had already faced St. John’s, Michigan State, Illinois (a win that doesn’t look so good anymore), Notre Dame (a loss that doesn’t look so bad) and Winthrop (depends if they win their conference). That slate of quality opponents, plus the ACC, is good enough. I just would have liked those quality opponents to be spaced out over a two month stretch, instead of a three week period.

What have we learned about Maryland so far? Quite a lot actually. We know that this is clearly Gary’s favorite team since the 2002 version, and so far, maybe his best coached team since the mid-90’s. We learned that Gary hasn’t lost his touch to recruit big men who can actually play facing the basket with the terrific addition of Bamble Osby. We know that Mike Jones has gone from defensive liability to one of the team’s best defenders. It’s clear that D.J. Strawberry is perfectly situated to play the three, which is something that would have been nice to know several seasons ago. Most importantly, the team’s greatest strength and weakness are at the point guard position. With the Hayes/Vasquez/Brown combination at point, Maryland finally has a couple of pass first point guards that are perfectly suited to run Gary’s offense. But, as I’ve been mentioning, Hayes and Vasquez are freshman and are both prone to freshmen mistakes.

There will be no more small schools coming into Comcast Center (unless you consider tiny Wake Forest to be a small school) as the Terps dive back into conference play for the rest of the season. I still think it will take an 8-8 conference record for Maryland to keep playing well into March. And these next four games are as important as any.

It will start tonight with Miami coming to town, followed by a home game against (undefeated???) Clemson before two straight games in the Commonwealth. With one conference loss already dealt to Maryland, the Terps must take both home games and hopefully earn a split in their Virginia double-dip. The good news for the Terps is the conference loss came on the road, which is much better than say, losing at home to Virginia Tech. Just an example, don’t want to mention any team by name. While I’m eager to talk about this interesting matchup with Clemson, I’ll save it until later this week. First I have to deal with Miami.

Coming into the season, most believed that the Hurricanes were going to be bad. They lost Guillermo Diaz and Robert Hite who were pretty much their entire offense. So far through 16 games, the Canes are…well, bad. Their 8-8 record is the worst in the conference. While Miami does have a decent win against Georgia Tech, they also have losses to Binghamton, Northwestern, Buffalo and Cleveland State. They also lost at home to Wake Forest, which may be one of two ACC teams that are worse than Miami. The problem for Miami is scoring. And with the above mentioned “graduations” (the likelihood of Diaz and Hite getting their diplomas is probably low) the lack of scoring comes as no surprise.

I do feel bad for the Hurricanes. I came very very close, on two different occasions, to accepting my scholarship to Miami. I’ve taken summer classes down there. I’ve always considered myself an extension of their university. I root for their teams whenever possible. It’s hard at times to like their football team. But I have nothing against their basketball program. I also feel bad for Frank Haith, who is a good coach. He had a good team and suffered some tough luck losses last season. Now, he has a bad team with two recruiting classes that never really amounted to much. He’s in trouble. He’ll probably make it through this season, but I doubt he makes it past next year.

Miami has only three players that even hardcore fans would remember. The first is leading scorer Jack McClinton. He averages 18 ppg and shoots 48% for three. Other than that, he really doesn’t do anything well. The Anthony’s are still there (Harris and King) but both have seen their numbers and minutes go down the last couple of years. King killed the Terps two years ago and Harris was one of the reasons that the U won at home last year against Maryland. Other than that, there is nothing good about this team. They only have two players that average double digits. Only one that has more than 6 rpg. The team shoots 37% from beyond the arc. This is a team Maryland should and has to beat easily. And I think they will

Maryland 85
Miami 71

Elsewhere around the ACC…

It’s that time again. Finally we get the ACC schedule going. I missed the Tuesday Clemson over NC State game. That does mean that Clemson will come to Comcast Center this Saturday as the only undefeated team in the country. More about that later in the week. As for now, I try and improve my terrible 6-4 record so far.

WEDNESDAY
Duke at Georgia Tech
I wasn’t surprised in the least that Duke lost to Virginia Tech. I was just surprised that Duke managed to get the game into overtime. Look, the Blue Devils are playing great defense, but they can’t score with 8 or 9 of the conference teams. That defensive hedge foolishness of theirs doesn’t work in the ACC where teams are used to seeing it. Duke is simply average this season. Any other team in the country with their resume wouldn’t be ranked. An 0-2 start for the Dookies in conference play? I don’t see why not.
Pick: Georgia Tech 75, Duke 69

Virginia at North Carolina
While Virginia continues to do this bizarre Jekyll and Hyde thing (Beat Arizona, lose to Appalachian State; crush Gonzaga, lose at home to Stanford), I’m going to steer clear of the Hoos on the road and take the best team in the conference and the nation.
Pick: UNC 84, Virginia 66

NFL Playoffs: Jettisoning The Jets

Another successful season in the bank. The overall record isn’t as impressive as the record against the spread. If you were to follow all of my picks, and put $20 dollars on each game, you’d be looking at something like a 900-1000 dollar profit. You’re welcome. Here’s the final tally:
Overall: 158-82 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 137-94-9
Let's compare those numbers to the so-called "experts" around the media. Again, this is ranked by win percentage because I pick 16 fewer games than most do:
The Predictor: 158-82 (66%)
Mike Golic, ESPN: 161-95 (63%)
John Clayton, ESPN: 160-96 (62.5%)
Accuscore: 158-98 (62%)
Eric Allen, ESPN: 156-100 (61%)
Dr. Z, Sports Illustrated: 156-100 (61%)
Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 155-101 (60.5%)
Joe Theismann, ESPN: 144-96 (60%)
Sean Salisbury, ESPN: 151-105 (59%)
Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 151-105 (59%)
Merrill Hodge, ESPN: 149-107 (58%)
Peter King, SI/NBC: 146-115 (57%)
Dave Richard, CBS: 145-114 (56.5%)
Pete Shithead Prisco, CBS: 141-118 (55%)
Sports Guy, ESPN: 141-118 (55%)
Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 139-116 (54%)
Clark Judge, CBS: 135-121 (53%)

Now verses the spread:
The Predictor: 137-94-9 (55.2%)
Sports Guy, ESPN: 128-123-6
Harmon Report: 126-125-5
Shithead Prisco, CBS: 126-125-5
Dave Richard, CBS: 125-126-5
Clark Judge, CBS: 124-127-5

So there you have it. I'm just going to let the records speak for themselves. No one is even close. Hell, I even beat two computer systems. Maybe next year fellas...but I doubt it.

I’ve got eleven more games to go and I’m looking to improve on the 6-3 playoff mark I had last season (I didn’t pick the two Redskins game last year…something that won’t come up this year). Let’s get to it.

SATURDAY
Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)(-7)
4:30 p.m. RCA Dome
I’m torn over what I heard from Herm Edwards this past week. Contrary to what he believes, if your season comes down to the San Francisco 49ers going on the road and having to win, then you’ve done something wrong. In other words, you’ve backed into the playoffs. On the other hand, on paper, the Chiefs are a much better team than the Broncos, Jaguars or Titans – even the Jets – and make for a much more dangerous playoff team. Anytime you combine their offensive line with Larry Johnson, it is a grouping that is very scary in a single-elimination tournament. Everyone talks about Kansas City’s defense being porous, but that’s just not the case. Their defense is ranked 16th in the league, or in other words, right smack dab in the middle of the league. This is no longer the unit that got scorched by Indianapolis a few years ago at home in the divisional playoffs (which, by the way, may be one of the greatest playoff games in the last 20 years). The weakness of the Chiefs, and who thought this would be the case two seasons ago, is their passing game. Trent Green no longer has the arm to consistently throw deep, and he doesn’t have the receivers either. Tony Gonzalez has almost disappeared completely from the offense. Dante Hall has disappeared completely from the offense. Seriously, has anyone seen him recently? Has there been anyone other than maybe Laurence Maroney who’s had more praise heaped on their shoulders for next to nothing more than Dante Hall? The guy has one season and then vanishes. Kick returners are like closers. 95% of the time, they have a couple of good seasons and then their luck runs out. So just a warning, if you’re a Devin Hester fan, you better enjoy his returns next year so you’ll have something to remember when he’s selling cars in 2010.

The defense that is now vulnerable belongs to Indianapolis. Or at least that’s what the Boston/New York media likes to tell you. See, if Peyton Manning ever wins a ring, then the media will actually have to pay attention to some Midwestern team. They don’t want that. So they’re going to bad mouth the Colts as long as possible. Yes the Colts are dead last in stopping the run. But they are the second best defense in stopping the pass. The Giants and Jets defenses both give up more yardage than Indianapolis. The Giants give up more points. The Cowboys defense only surrenders .5 points a game less than Indy. So why don’t we hear about their defensive deficiencies, hmmm? No, we only hear about how Indy and Kansas City can’t play defense because the media is lazy and doesn’t want to put forth the research for a couple of teams in fly-over country.

Here are the facts. Kansas City and Indianapolis are two of the best three teams in the AFC. They are both better than Baltimore. They are both better than New England. They are both vastly better than the Jets. It’s a shame that one of them will get knocked out here. At the beginning of the season, this was my AFC Championship game match. It’s unfortunate that it is happening two rounds early, but them’s the breaks. Back in August I picked the Colts for three reasons. One, Tony Dungy has enough sense to realize that the Chiefs offense is extremely unbalanced. They will do everything in their power to make sure Larry Johnson won’t run over them. That’s not to say that Johnson won’t have a big game. He just won’t have a LaDainian Tomlinson type of day that allows one player to carry a team to victory. They will dare, ask and beg Kansas City to beat them in the air. The second reason is the offense. Indianapolis, despite the excessive naysayers, still has the most complete and dominant offense in the NFL. Whatever their defense gives up to KC, they should be able to make up. The third reason is the home field advantage. The Colts don’t lose on turf. They were 8-0 at home this season. Look it up. It’s fact.
Pick: Colts 33, Chiefs 24

Dallas Cowboys (9-7) vs. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)(-2.5)
8:00 p.m. Qwest Field
So, is Tony Romo still on the fast track to Canton, or can we finally kill that story? Just let me know. I want to be on board with all these instant reactions from the sports media.

Tony’s last five weeks (aka, half of his season) hasn’t been so hot. His stats read like this: 95-157, 6 TD and 9 INT. Not a great TD-INT ratio there Tony. What happened? Did your bust get lost after beating terrible teams like Arizona and Tampa? All of a sudden the talent Dallas faces gets better and Romo’s stats go down. What a shock. And let’s not forget the 2-3 finish to the season. Which, as the quarterback, Romo is more responsible for than any other player.

Can Romo be a great quarterback? Sure. I know I’m not looking forward to the Redskins facing Romo for the better part of the next decade. But the moral here is not to get carried away. Let’s remember what happened to Rex Grossman, Eli Manning and Chris Simms in their first playoff games last postseason. I believe, and correct me if I’m wrong, their combined record was 0-3. Manning’s offense couldn’t score a point against Carolina. Simms, with his spleen intact, took three quarters off before waking up too late in the fourth against the Skins. And Grossman looked terrible throughout his loss to Carolina. The moral here: well, the same as before…don’t get carried away.

Combine all that with the fact that Romo will be making his first playoff start on the road in a place that is impossible to play in, and things don’t look so good for Dallas. Seattle did tank the second half of the season, but they are at least going into the postseason on an up note after destroying Tampa. It’s not exactly like beating San Diego, but at least it’s better than say, losing to Detroit. Which is exactly what Dallas did last week.

This game is a bettors dream. Seattle, at home, against a quarterback making his first start in the playoffs, finally healthy on offense, against a defense that is statistically worse than Indianapolis’, is only favored by 2.5? Are you kidding me? Lay the points. It won’t be that close.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Cowboys 20

SUNDAY
New York Jets (10-6) vs. New England Patriots (12-4)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
How did the Jets finish 10-6? I really have no answer. Statistically, they are a terrible team. They are 25th in total offense, 18th in points scored, 20th in total defense and 20th in turnover +/-. In fact, their -3 turnover ratio is the worst among playoff teams. Heck, the Redskins, who set a record this season in terms of futility in forcing turnovers, have the same -3 that the Jets do. During the regular season, the Jets only scored 21 more points than their opponents did. Which means, in their 10 wins, their average margin of victory was just below 2 points a game.

The Jets opponents .468 strength of schedule sure helped. That .468 is one of the easiest in the league. New Jersey had exactly one decent win all season. Ironically it came at New England. Here are their other nine wins, notice how none of them consist of winning teams: Tennessee (before Vince Young), Buffalo, Detroit, Miami (twice), Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota and Oakland. Their 10 wins came against teams with a combined record of 64-96. In other words, their opponents that they beat had a winning percentage of .400. I used Elias to track that. Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams, no playoff team had a worse opponent win percentage of teams they beat during the regular season than the 2006 New York Jets. I hate labeling playoff teams this, because it’s sort of an oxymoron, but all evidence points to the Jets being one of the worst playoff teams in recent history. And it’s not like they beat those teams by a lot. They only beat Miami by a field goal in both games. They only beat Detroit and Tennessee by a touchdown. They only beat Buffalo by eight. The second time they played Buffalo, the Bills crushed them by 18.

More disturbing is their strictly average 7-5 record against AFC teams. And, any time they met a decent team, they lost. They lost to Indianapolis, they lost to New England the first time and they got shut out against the Bears. Oh, and they lost 41-0 to the Jaguars. Not to mention the ugly loss to Buffalo and the terrible loss to Cleveland.

You can talk about how great a story the Jets are. But they really aren’t. They benefited from playing twice against both Buffalo and Miami, playing the average AFC South, the atrocious NFC North and a fourth place schedule. I guarantee next season - when the Jets have to play a much tougher AFC East, along with the NFC East, the AFC North and a second place schedule - they’d be lucky to finish 8-8. Here’s an early prediction: the Jets will not have a .500 record next season. Mark it down

As much as I can’t stand people anointing Bill Belichick as one of the game’s greatest coaches, do you really think he’s going to lose twice at home to a team the caliber of the Jets? I sure don’t. And for all those saying that Rodney Harrison will be the reason New England eventually falls in the playoffs, I call all of you dopes. Harrison was not that important to New England. He’s washed up, over-the-hill. He hasn’t been relevant in the past three seasons. If he was still playing in San Diego, no one would care about him. If the Patriots don’t make the Super Bowl because of Rodney Harrison, then they didn’t deserve to go in the first place. Which they don’t and they won’t. They aren’t a Super Bowl team because, like the Jets, they aren’t very good and played a very soft schedule. But they win here.
Pick: Patriots 24, Jets 9

New York Giants (8-8) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)(-7)
4:30 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
The good news: one of these teams has to lose. And I really don't care which one.
Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 10