Maryland Basketball: The Long And Winding Road

NR/#22 Maryland Terrapins (15-3, 1-2 ACC) at
Virginia Cavaliers (9-6, 1-2 ACC)
John Paul Jones Center - Charlottesville, VA

Saturday’s game showed us that the law of averages does tend to balance out college basketball. The Terps followed a night when they shot 22% and then turned around and shot 63%. Neither game is indicative of what Maryland can do. They are obviously much better than a 22% shooting, 58 point scoring team. And they are not going to shoot 63% from the floor every night either.

So why did they shoot so well against a good Clemson team and so poorly against a bad Miami team? Shot selection. Maryland figured they could jack up any shot they wanted to against Miami and it would go in. That’s the problem with playing five softies in a row before conference play starts. Against American, UMKC and Iona, those shots went in. If they didn’t go in, then James Gist and Ekene Ibekwe would get rebounds over inferior post players. In the ACC, a bad shooting night, coupled with big athletic guys inside, usually means a loss.

Against Clemson, the ball movement and aggressiveness of the Maryland offense returned. They looked like they did against Michigan State and Illinois. They ran nice set plays out of the baseline flex. They moved the ball around the perimeter with ease. They attacked inside against a pretty decent group of forwards. Most importantly, they didn’t rush up threes 10 seconds into a possession.

Ibekwe, who looked horrible against Miami, played his best game in years against the Paw Prints. I said someone needed to light a fire under his ass. It seemed his poor performance against the Canes woke him up and he played inspired against the Tigers. There is no reason he can’t play like that every night if he motivates himself. Will he get 20 and 10 every game? No, probably not. But there is no reason he can’t average 15 and 7 a game from here on out. Gist, as usual, played lights out inside, cleaning up when Ibekwe couldn’t. Strawberry forced the guards to look inside first before settling for jump shots. And Greivis Vasquez finally realized, “Hey, I’m a freshman, maybe I should defer some shots to the guys who have been playing four years.” If that Maryland team shows up every night in conference, then Maryland will win at least 10 conference games.

Maryland’s mental toughness will be tested in the next two weeks. Four of the next five are on the road. They play two in the Commonwealth, before a tough home game against the Bees, followed by more road games in two places Maryland usually doesn’t play well: The Joel and the TLCCC. Want to know the reason Maryland hasn’t made the tournament in the last two years? Well, their 4-12 road record is one place to start looking. Maryland, at the very least, needs to beat GTech at home and find a way to split the road games.

Two of those four road wins the past seasons have come in Charlottesville. This is odd considering the Jekyll and Hyde routine that the Cavaliers usually pull. The Jekyll tends to show up at home, while the unpredictable Hyde comes out for road games. Hence, solid wins at home against Arizona and Gonzaga (which is looking less and less like a quality win after the Zags lost their seventh game of the year…this one to St. Mary’s College). It also explains their weird losses away from the new John Paul Jones Center to Appalachian State and Utah (a team that is dead last in the Mountain West).

I thought the Cavaliers were past all this. First off, Pete Gillen is long gone, as he’s stuck doing color commentary for CAA games on the local Fox affiliate. Poor Pete. Second, the Cavs have a bunch of veteran players for the first time in years. With Sean Singletary, Maryland killer J.R. Reynolds, Adrian Joseph and Tunji Soroye, I thought the Cavs would be able to stop laying eggs on other courts. That’s why I picked them to finish fifth in the conference and make the NCAA Tournament this season. A month ago, that was looking likely. Now I’m not so sure.

Virginia hasn’t beaten Maryland in three years, which is pathetic considering the state of Maryland’s program during that time span. That includes last year’s final game ever at University Hall. If Virginia couldn’t beat Maryland then, while closing down their building, then you have to wonder if Gary just has their number.

Despite the Hoos usual roller-coaster like season, here’s what we do know about them. On any given night, they have the potential to beat any ACC team. They hung with Carolina and Boston College for 35 minutes before finally falling in their last two games. If Virginia plays well, it is hard to beat them. Singletary, once again, is the team’s returning star. The junior continues to dominate the ACC as he averages 18.6 ppg and 5 apg. Reynolds, his sidekick, also scores at will with 16 ppg. But here is the problem for Virginia. They still haven’t found a third scorer to compliment Singletary and Reynolds. More importantly, they haven’t found a decent big man to compliment Singletary and Reynolds.

In a conference with good big men everywhere (Hansbrough, Gist, Thornton, Dickey, S.Williams, etc…), Virginia has the worst front court in the league. You aren’t going to scare any team, ACC or otherwise, with a front court consisting of the Dirty Sanchez (Jason Cain), Mamadi Diane and chunky Euro-trash Laurynas Mikalauskas. If you have a Baltic player who can’t shoot threes, what good is he?

Offensively, there should be no contest inside for Maryland. If they work the ball to Gist and Ibekwe the way they did against Clemson, they should both leave the new arena with 20 plus points. There is no one inside that can stop them. But what about defensively? The front court rotation of Gist, Ibekwe and Osby should be able to stop Virginia’s combination. But how do you stop the backcourt?

The key to stopping Virginia is stopping J.R. Reynolds. Singletary is their best player. I don’t care who he is playing, he’s going to get his points. He’s a special player and there’s really no point in trying to scheme to stop him. Singletary alone can’t beat you. He needs a second scorer. In the past, Maryland has focused too much on Singletary and has allowed Reynolds to eat them up. It’s been proven, at least this season, if you stop Reynolds from scoring, then more often than not, Virginia loses. He scored 7 in a loss to Purdue, 9 in the loss to Appalachian State, 9 in the near loss to some small school named Puerto Rico – Mayaguez and 14 in a loss to Stanford. Reynolds is a spot up shooter that has trouble creating. He is someone Maryland can stop. Stick Strawberry on him instead of Singletary. If you put Jones or one of the freshmen on Reynolds, then it’s going to be a long night. Put Strawberry on Reynolds, hope Adrian Joseph doesn’t have a career night, and there should be no reason Maryland can’t win this game.

Maryland 77
Virginia 71

Elsewhere in the ACC…

After a 4-2 weekend, the record now stands at 12-7. Not great, but getting better.

TUESDAY
Miami at Boston College
Shhhhhhhh…very, very quietly, Boston College has started conference play with a 4-0 record and is alone in first place. No reason to think they’ll get that first loss here.
Pick: Boston College 78, Miami 61

WEDNESDAY
North Carolina at Clemson
Look, we all know Clemson isn’t as good as their 17-0 start. Should they make the tournament? Yes. Should Oliver Purnell be fired if they don’t? Yes. Can they hang with a pissed of Roy Williams and his high-flying NBA team? No.
Pick: UNC 86, Clemson 75

Virginia Tech at Florida State
Ok, the Hokies have proven that they are a legit force in the ACC this year. Here’s another chance for them to prove it. They’ve beaten Duke. They’ve beaten UNC. This here is a game that fringe teams like Tech usually lose. They overlook FSU, or they think they’re a great team after two big wins, and next thing you know, you have students rushing the court in Tallahassee. I’m giving the Hokies the benefit of the doubt.
Pick: Virginia Tech 74, Florida State 69

THURSDAY
Wake Forest at Duke
Just when I was getting excited about the Dookies possibly going winless in conference play, I forgot to check my ACC schedule. Seems like the big wigs in The Triangle felt bad for giving Ratface the tough opening slate of VPI and Georgia Tech. So they threw the three worst teams in the conference on his schedule afterwards. We’ll learn more about Duke next week when they play Clemson and BC.
Pick: Duke 75, Wake Forest 60