The Predictor Top 25: 1/22/07

Ok, so it’s time for the first Top 25 of the season. Now, the top may look kosher, but the bottom half may look a little different than what you see in the AP. The benefit I have over the AP is that I don’t pre rank the teams (and like I’ve said before, the ESPN poll is worthless, I never pay attention to it). So even though Air Force lost last week to Utah, and the AP is forced to drop them lower than their 13th ranking from last week, I start them this week at 13th based on what they’ve done during the entire season (not just last week) and they will rise and fall accordingly from there

So far, it is apparent that the Pac-10 is the best conference in basketball. The Big XII is right behind with the SEC and ACC trailing. So that was taken into account. That’s why you will see very few Big East or Big Ten teams in the polls this weekend. And I honestly have no idea what to do with all these solid mid-majors. Don’t believe me that the Pac-10 is the best in the nation? Well, first off, their RPI is the statistically better than any other conference. Just look at their top five teams compared to the other Big 6. They are so good that Washington is near the bottom of the league, and they were supposed to be a high seed this year in the NCAA’s.

Pac-10: UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, Arizona, USC
ACC: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Duke, Boston College
Big East: Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State
Big XII: Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
SEC: Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Vanderbilt

Now, are you telling me you wouldn’t take the top 5 teams from the Pac-10 against the top 5 teams from any other conference? If that’s the case, you don’t know college basketball. Here is the initial Top 25:

1. UCLA (17-1): They are the best team in the country’s best conference. Their one loss is on the road to a very good Oregon team. Their defense is the second best in the country and they’re finally finding ways to score.
2. North Carolina (17-2): I still feel the Tar Heels are the best team in the nation. However, they have two losses to UCLA’s one, so I gotta put them here. For now.
3. Florida (17-2): The defending champs seem bored. Too many strange losses and close games. There is no way they should have lost to Florida State. There is no way they should have almost let Ole Miss beat them last week.
4. Texas A&M (16-2): You know me and my fondness for A&M and Billy Gillespie. They play the best defense in the country, and it looks like they’ve found two more scorers (Carter and Kavaliauskas) to go along with Acie Law and Joseph Jones. They just finished blowing OSU off the court this week, and OSU is another top team. And their only losses are at UCLA and at LSU. Nothing wrong with that. If the tournament started right now, the Aggies would be the champions.
5. Wisconsin (19-1): Sure Wisconsin seems good now. But when will they choke in March? The Big Ten is down, so the best Big Ten team is down in the rankings too. This really isn't a top 5 caliber team.
6. Ohio State (16-3): This team would be higher if everyone stopped staring at Greg Oden on the offensive end and actually tried moving the ball around.
7. Oregon (18-1): Seriously, why is no one talking about the Ducks? Their one loss was to USC (although it was at home) and they’re doing more than treading water in the ultra-thick Pac-10. QUACK!
8. Kansas (16-3): Like Florida, Kansas seems to know that they're good and get bored from time to time. The loss to Oral Roberts is still a red flag. The close win against Iowa State, and being outplayed by OSU are two more warnings. Still, they are the second best team in the conference, and get a chance to beat the Aggies at home very soon.
9. Oklahoma State (16-3): Nothing wrong with two losses on the road to KU and A&M. I would have put them higher if the Aggies didn’t blow them out.
10. Pittsburgh (17-3): When are we going to stop buying into the Panthers every year? This team won’t get past weekend number one in March. They are frauds. They have so many holes, and their home loss to Marquette exposed many of them.
11. Alabama (15-3): Just starting to get their feet back under them after the Jermareo Davidson saga the past month. The loss to Vanderbilt is nothing to worry about, because the Commodores are better than most think and may just make an appearance in the rankings next week.
12. Marquette (17-4): Like OSU and Alabama, there is no reason to twist some of their early losses into serious problems. This is a team that should overtake Pitt and win the Big East.
13. Air Force (18-2): The strange loss to Utah notwithstanding, this is the best mid-major team at the moment, and this seemed like the right place to put them. Only A&M and UCLA play better defense
14. Virginia Tech (14-5): Record wise, the Hokies shouldn’t be this high. They probably shouldn’t be in the top 25 at all. They’ve had a bunch of bizarre losses to Marshall and Western Michigan and even last week to FSU. But look at some of the teams below them. Don’t you think Tech would beat a whole bunch of them right now? Only Carolina may be more athletic at all five positions on the floor. We’ll see in the next couple of weeks if I was crazy to put them here, or just ahead of the curve.
15. Nevada (17-2): Anytime you have a Nick Fazekas, you have a chance against the big boys. The lack of a real quality win does worry me a bit though.
16. Washington State (16-3): From the same guy who brought you the 2006 Texas A&M Aggies, I present to you the 2007 Washington State Cougars. This is the sleeper team of the year. I even said as much in my college basketball preview back in November. Go back and look if you don’t believe me. I’ll wait. I was probably the only one in the country who said they would make the tournament back in November. They’ve earned this ranking in the Pac-10. They probably should be higher.
17. Notre Dame (16-3): Nothing special about this team. They just keep winning. A 16-3 record is nothing to sneeze at.
18. Clemson (18-2): Yes, their season could tank at any moment. But right now, they’re 18-2 and the two losses were to Carolina and at Maryland. You can’t drop someone out of the top 25 based on what you think they are going to do. I can only rank them based on what they’ve done so far.
19. Kentucky (15-4): Like a bad case of the herpes, the Wildcats just never seem to go away. They are quietly putting up another solid season in the SEC. I know there are calls for Tubby Smith’s head right now, but I don’t think UK realizes how much worse they could actually do.
20. USC (15-5): In November, I was torn with what to do with the Trojans. I knew they were going to be good next year. But it looks as if they’ve arrived a bit early. They are this year’s Ohio State. With wins against Arizona, Oregon, Washington and Wichita State, there are a lot of reasons to have them here. The competitive losses to WSU, UCLA and Kansas are several more reasons to have them even higher. This team is battle tested and could surprise a few in March.
21. Arizona (13-5): The sum of the parts is better than the whole. The 13-5 record isn’t great, but you have to look at the talent that resides on this roster. They’ve lost a bunch of close games to really good teams. How can you really punish them for losses to USC, UCLA, Oregon, WSU and Virginia? Seriously, how good is the Pac-10? Arizona is one of the best teams in the country and they are only 4-4 in conference. Wow.
22. Memphis (15-3): I have to start them low, otherwise before you know it, they’ll run through their soft conference and end up in the top 10. This is not a top 10 team. They really have no quality wins.
23. Duke (16-3): The only quality wins have come against Air Force and Gonzaga. Both of those wins are starting to diminish in value. They were thumped by Marquette, Georgia Tech and lost at home to Virginia Tech. 23rd seems about right.
24. Butler (17-2): People are way too excited about what they did in November. Losses to Indiana State and Illinois-Chicago show that they are not quite in the same class as Nevada and AFA.
25. Texas Tech (14-5): I’ll admit it. Their win against Kansas is probably the only reason they're in this week. Still, the Red Raiders should be a NCAA tournament team and any time you can knock off one of the big three in the Big XII, you deserve a spot in the rankings.

NEXT FIVE: Texas, LSU, UNLV, Boston College, Indiana
SEVEN MORE: Michigan State, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, VCU, Michigan, Northern Iowa