NFL Playoffs: Rewriting Recent History

Eight down, three to go. So far I’m 7-1, just one Chargers melt down away from being perfect. Plus, I even told friends after I posted these picks that I had re-thought my Chargers pick and said New England was probably going to win. Oh well.

More importantly, the Eagles and Ravens can now join the Giants, Jets, Cowboys and the rest of the NFL on their couches. The playoffs are almost scum free now. One more note on the Ravens before they slide back into obscurity and .500 records. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a team talk so much trash and fall flat on their faces. The other seven teams in the playoffs at least showed some respect for one another (a couple of Patriots not withstanding). The Ravens all week talked not about how they were going to win, but how they were going to go to the Super Bowl. Way to walk the walk fellas. Here’s the kicker: even after they lost, the Ravens were still talking trash. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. You just lose – no, get embarrassed - at home in a playoff game and then you disrespect the team that beats you? Does that make any sense? All I heard Saturday and Sunday from Double Murder and his band of miscreants was how the Colts weren’t all that good, that they didn’t play well, that they were lucky on this play and on that play, etc… Well, if they were so bad, why didn’t you beat them? Pathetic, just pathetic. It will be nice not to hear from those purple draped losers until next August. It was also nice to watch Baltimore lose to their former team…where was that “loud” fan base I kept hearing about all week? And to all the Ravens “fans” who I know read this site: yes, I know the Redskins were miserable this year. But over the last two seasons, the Redskins at least won a playoff game. When you get more than one of THESE, maybe I’ll consider you a real franchise. Until then, enjoy have the Big Ego as your horrible coach, and enjoy one of the biggest fluke seasons in NFL history (that being 2000-2001). Adios until next season, chumps.

Here are the predictions for the two conference championship games. Enjoy.



New Orleans Saints (11-6) at
Chicago Bears (14-3)(-2.5)
3:00 p.m. Soldier Field
NFC Championship Game

The Bears are who I thought they were…they’re who I thought they were. That’s why I made last week’s damn pick. Now if you wanna crown them, then crown their ass. But they are who I thought they were, and I’m not picking them again.

I said last week that the Bears aren’t that great. I said I expected them to beat Seattle, but only by three points. They did exactly that. They won a home playoff game, by three points, to a team that had the majority of their players injured, and was coming off a short week. And they needed overtime and a couple of gift plays to do it. On the other hand, at least they didn’t lose a home playoff game like some other team.

Here’s the dirty little secret, and I said it last week. The Bears are the exact same team this season as the one that lost to Carolina at home in the playoffs last year. The only difference was the competition. The Carolina team they faced in January 2006 was much better than the Seahawks team they faced last week. And the Saints team they face this week is better than either of those teams.

Chicago, for the past two years, has done one thing right consistently: play good defense. They are no longer doing that. Yes, Chicago made the stops when they needed to against Seattle. But they also gave up more than 300 yards. They allowed Seattle to convert six third downs, four of which came in third and long situations. They allowed a Seattle team that was missing two linemen, had both their star quarterback and running back seriously banged up, with receivers that couldn’t catch a ball if it were handed to them, to march up and down the field and score 24 points. And if wasn’t for an untimely interception and some bad play-calling the fourth quarter, we’d be talking more about Seattle this week and very little about the Bears.

In fact, of the four teams left, the Bears are probably playing the worst defense. So if their defense is playing poorly, what do the Bears have left? A quarterback with bipolar disorder, a decent running back platoon, a no-name group of receivers and an above average offensive line. Does this sound like a good number one seed? Sure, they won 14 games so far, but it sure helps to play Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota twice a season.

Now the Bears have to play New Orleans. The Saints aren’t banged up. They aren’t winners of a weak division. They are a good team. Offensively, the Saints are better than the Bears at every position. More importantly, the Saints are quicker, smarter and more aggressive than the Bears defense. Even if New Orleans was facing the Bears defense that showed up early in the season, I would still like the matchups.

No one in the league is playing better football right now than Drew Brees. He is making every play. He’s not making mistakes. He’s got a great offensive front. He’s got weapons everywhere you look. How can any defense stop this team? Without Mike Brown and Tommie Harris, the Bears are in big trouble. They haven’t been the same defense since. The middle has been a lot more open for offenses since Harris has been gone. Brian Urlacher is getting extra attention and he looks lost trying to fight off blocks. That could be a problem against Deuce McAlister. The secondary without Brown has been beaten deep more than a good defense should be. The return of Charles Tillman last week couldn’t help that. Remember what they looked like last year against Steve Smith? Well, factor in that they’ll be playing against Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Terrance Copper and possibly Joe Horn. Now that’s a scary thought for Bears fans.

Everything in this matchup points to New Orleans winning and winning big. But, since the Bears are at home, and the Saints postseason history is poor to say the least, this game will probably be closer then I expect. So for now, I like the Saints by two scores.
Pick: Saints 30, Bears 20




New England Patriots (14-4) at
Indianapolis Colts (14-4)(-3)
6:30 p.m. RCA Dome
AFC Championship Game

Ah, the main course. This is why you are here, aren’t you?

Already this week I’m tired of hearing the Tom Brady story lines again. How you can’t defeat him in the fourth quarter. How he’s the best postseason quarterback in history. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Look no further than the Chargers game say all the experts.

But what did that game last week really prove to us? It proved that if any NFL team gives another playoff team 50 chances to win a game, eventually, that team is going to do it. If anything, the game last week proved that Tom Brady has never been a great postseason quarterback, but is the recipient of extremely fortunate breaks and somehow wins through forces out of his control. The Chargers were in New England territory the entire first half and came away with only 14 points. In the second half, the Chargers practically abandoned the run, which is obviously their strong suit, in favor of a quarterback making his first playoff start. The subsequent bad throws. The dropped passes. The stupid personal foul penalties. The Marlon McCree interception that he later fumbled. The blown safety coverage on the deep ball to Reche Caldwell. The list goes on and on and on. Which of those things was Brady responsible for, exactly? Which one of those things did he do? None of them, except throw the interception to McCree, which turned out to be the best play of the game for Brady.

In fact, if it wasn’t for Brady’s terrible game, the Patriots would have won easily. They wouldn’t have needed a late fourth quarter comeback. Just look at all the dumb mistakes the Chargers made. Brady was the reason that the Patriots were eight points behind in the first place. Yes, he played well in the second half of the fourth quarter. But what about the other 3 ½ quarters? Do those not count anymore? The Chargers handed New England the game time and time again, only to have it returned back by New England. Eventually, the Patriots got tired of giving it back to San Diego and hung on to win the game. I say to all the experts to look at that San Diego game as another reason why Brady isn’t close to the best quarterback in NFL history.

Now the Patriots get the Colts. Cue up the running headlines: Manning can’t beat Brady. Dungy can’t beat Belichick. Manning always chokes. The Colts can’t get past New England when it really matters. Again, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Everyone at BostonSPN will remind you over and over again. From the analysts to the hosts to the Sports Dork to anyone else who can find a way to get on camera or a couple of inches on their webpage.

Last I checked, the Colts had won two in a row against better New England teams. Both of those games were in the regular season, but they were both in Foxboro. And yes, the Patriots have beaten the Colts in two postseason games recently. However, like those regular season games, both came in New England. In other words, those were home games for the Patriots. Games they were supposed to win. This will be the first matchup of these teams at the RCA Dome in five years.

The Colts are a completely different team on the Dome carpet than they are outside. Like the Rams of a few years ago, the Colts are much quicker, much smoother and much better indoors. This will be the first chance against New England in the playoffs for them to prove it. Just look at the home record of 9-0 to show what they’ve done against the rest of the NFL at their place.

There are several areas that New England is severely mismatched here. First, the crowd noise will be reversed. No more home field advantage means more confusion on offense for New England. Look how bad they were at timid and laid back San Diego. Now they have to play against a fan base thirsty for blood. I bet the Indianapolis crowd is going to be very similar to the Cole Field House crowd against Duke in 2002. That was the year after the Terps blew the 10-point lead in 54 seconds at home and later had the refs take the National Semifinals game away from them. I’ve never been to a sporting event like that 2002 game. Instead of nervous anticipation, the crowd was angry. I mean really pissed off before the game even started. We wanted revenge and we wanted badly. It was like an unruly mob. I’ve never been in a louder arena. Ever. And that includes rock concerts. That game changed the season for both Maryland and Duke. That huge win for Maryland propelled them six weeks later to their first championship. The Dookies never recovered from their beating, and they were bounced by Indiana (hmm…coming full circle).

Now before I go on about Juan Dixon and Byron Mouton for another five minutes, what was I talking about? Oh yes, football. The advantages that the Colts offense has over New England’s defense will be more prevalent indoors than in Foxboro. The Colts speed, which was neutralized by the conditions and the purposely kept high grass, will be evident this Sunday on the nice quick field turf and the comfortable wind chill of 72 degrees. The Colts receivers have always created mismatches against the New England secondary, but now the Colts get to seriously exploit that on their home turf. If Manning has any time to throw, he should pick this defense apart. What the Patriots defense has in smarts and aggressiveness, they lack in overall talent. This secondary scares nobody. The receivers will be open. It’s going to be up to the Colts line to give their quarterback a couple of seconds to find them. Plus, Manning has had two terrible games in a row. How many times can you recall Manning having three bad performances in a row?

Now, on the other side of the ball, the quickness will again be a factor working against New England. In case you haven’t noticed, the Colts defense is playing lights out. Against the Chiefs, everyone thought this was a fluke due to Kansas City running straight into the teeth of the Indy defense. So what’s the excuse this week? The Colts defense went on the road and gave up six points. They completely nullified the drug dealing running back for the Ravens and made Steve McNair look even more pedestrian than he usually does. Maybe, just maybe, having three quarters of the starting secondary injured during the regular season hurt the Colts defense a little bit (something I’ve been saying since November). The reason the Colts were giving up so many rushing yards is because the reserve safeties were playing so far back on running plays. Dungy didn’t want them creeping up to the line and getting burned deep. So he kept them back. Now with Bob Sanders and Nick Harper back, the Colts are able to put eight in the box and not get burned deep in the air at the same time. Yes, I think it has been proven that Bob Sanders really does mean that much to the Colts defense. This defense, while undersized, is lightning quick everywhere. No more so than at defensive end with Dwight Freeney. Matt Light is going to get abused this weekend. The speed of the Colts defense is going to become apparent on that artificial turf.

The final advantage is in the kicking game. The Patriots, for some unknown reason, decided to release Adam Vinatieri. I can’t begin to fathom why they would do this, and then replace him with a rookie. I have no idea. I’ll tell you this though. I don’t agree with Belichick being named one of the games greatest coaches, or Brady one of the games greatest quarterbacks. But Adam Vinatieri is the NFL’s greatest clutch field goal kicker of all-time. Period. End of story. The Colts signing Vinatieri may prove to be the biggest free agent acquisition this past offseason. If this game is close at the end, the Patriots are done. The big advantage the Pats had over Indianapolis for several years is now standing on the opposing sideline.

I already compared the Colts and this game to Maryland’s game against Duke in 2002. But that’s not really good enough. Let me make another comparison, one that Bostonians can understand. The New England Patriots right now are playing the role of the 2004 New York Yankees (albeit without the 27 championships). On the flip side, it’s the Colts playing the role of the 2004 Red Sox. We all knew that the Red Sox had too much talent to lose every single season. We knew that they would break through eventually. And we all knew, in our own way, that the Red Sox would have to go through their arch-nemesis to do it. Lo and behold, in 2004, after years of failing against the Yanks, they got another chance. The Red Sox completed one of the greatest comebacks in the history of sports, while at the same time, lowering the Yankees as a franchise off their pedestal. The Yankees have never been the same team since. They learned humility. Well, this is the exact same situation for the NFL. The Colts are now the tormented team. They have too much talent to keep going out early every season. They are going to win a Super Bowl eventually. But they’re going to have to go through New England to do it. And it’s time for New England to learn that same humility. After years of failing, the Colts get another chance, and I think they are going to do it.

Since day one of this NFL season, I’ve been telling you the Colts are going to win it all. A lot of experts said the same thing in August and September, but bailed on the Colts as soon as trouble showed up in November. In fact, many of them picked the Colts to lose at home to Kansas City. And all of them picked the Colts to lose at Baltimore. Meanwhile, I’ve been here all along, warning all of you not to sleep on the Colts. Telling you that they were the NFL’s best team. No one outside of the Hoosier State listened. I’m not going to do my “I Told You So” song and dance yet, but if the Colts win, you can expect it in two weeks during my Super Bowl preview. If the Patriots pull this one out, then maybe I’ll have to start buying into this whole Belichick-Brady mythology. I just don’t see it happening. I’m already practicing my dance.
Pick: Colts 24, Patriots 17