Friday, January 12, 2007

NFL Playoffs: Isn't It Time To Move On?

Wild card weekend was fantastic. Not only did I go 4-0, but the Jets, Giants and Cowboys were all shown the door. Perfect. Couldn’t have been better. I feel sorry for Seahawks fans. If you aren’t a hardcore football fan, or didn’t stay up until 3 a.m. to watch the game, you probably wouldn’t know that the Seahawks won. You would certainly know the Cowboys lost and that Tony Romo was to blame. Which is great! But for all three NFL carrying networks to devote pre/post game coverage to everything Romo is, as usual, disgusting. My favorite quote, and it again comes from ESPN’s Fat Ass host himself, was: “Look, I don’t care who you are, but if you don’t feel for Tony Romo, then you don’t have a pulse.” Well, Mrs. Berman, I think it’s wonderful that Romo screwed his team and I enjoyed seeing him cry very much. It was more satisfying than watching J.J. Redick cry last March and almost as good as watching Jason Williams unable to keep from bawling after Duke choked against Indiana in 2002. I didn’t feel bad for him for one second. And last I checked, my pulse was just fine, thank you.

See, ESPN thinks this entire country is love with Dallas (or New England, Philadelphia and New York). When in reality, the majority of the country, outside those cities and ESPN’s lair, hates those teams. Absolutely despises them. Not because they are good. Not because they are jealous. But because ESPN refuses to stop talking about them 24/7 until they are removed from play. And even then ESPN doesn’t stop talking about it. Dear God when will another national sports network pop up. I’m still hoping one day to have that happen and watch ESPN try and fail to compete. They cover 10% of major league teams. Any national sports network that would do a better job of covering the majority of teams in the major leagues and colleges would crush ESPN. One day maybe. Anyway, my point was that I could emphasize with Seattle fans. The Redskins had a similar scenario last season after beating Tampa Bay. No one talked about the fact the Redskins won, just Sean Taylor spitting on someone. Give Seattle credit. They were the better team for the majority of that game. We’ll get back to Seattle in a minute. First, some other picks. Enjoy.

SATURDAY
Indianapolis Colts (13-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)(-4)
4:30 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
There aren’t many bad things about working at the local sports station. I have access to hundreds of feeds. I can practically watch any pro or college game I want. I meet athletes, coaches and famous personalities on a weekly basis. I literally get paid to watch sports. And I get free cable at home!

One of the downsides of working at a sports station that services Washington and Baltimore are the obnoxious Ravens fans who work there. That and the fact that I occasionally have to devout part of my day to work on Ravens related materials. Don’t get me wrong. The Redskins fans almost outnumber the Baltimorons two to one. But the Ratbirds fans still manage to make their presence felt from time to time.

Anyhow, you get to hear all the bitching about how Indianapolis stole their team and how the Colts left town in the middle of the night. Well, that’s all true. However, Baltimorons, maybe if you were better fans (or even decent fans) your team wouldn’t have to sneak out of town in the cover of a blizzard to flee your crime-infested city. And yes, I’m sorry that Indianapolis stole your team. But, and cue Alanis Morrisette here, isn’t it ironic that the same fan base that complains that one city stole their team, did the exact same thing no less than 12 years later? The Browns moving to Baltimore couldn’t be more similar to the Colts leaving for the Midwest unless the Browns used Mayflower vans to find their way to Owings Mills. NO MORE COMPLAINING. NO ONE CARES. Either root for the Colts, or root for your stolen team. If you can’t decide because “you still feel loyalty to the Colts,” then you can go screw yourself. Either way, I’m tired of hearing about it.

My opinion, and I’ve stated it before, is Baltimore is extremely lucky to even have the Ravens. They should never been allowed to move to Baltimore. First off, in a city that has crime problems out the wazoo, the NFL allowed a double-murder, several drug dealers and a referee assaulter to further worsen Baltimore’s problems. Secondly, the NFL screwed the Redskins out of hundreds of millions of advertising and other endorsements in territory that was rightly theirs. Finally, why would you let a city that already ruined and chased one team away to have a chance to do it a second time? Does any of this make sense?

So the word around the Ravens corner of the office is this would be a very sweet victory for the Big Ego, his junior criminals and the slum known as Baltimore. So if that’s the feeling, then the opposite must be true as well. If Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning and the Super Bowl bound Colts can go into Baltimore and destroy a team in a city that it used to call home, a team that has all but been anointed Super Bowl Champions by everyone working at that junior outfit known as The Sun, how lousy will that fan base feel the next day? The next week? The rest of the year? I would enjoy every minute of it. And I wouldn’t feel for them at all. And yes Fat Ass Berman, my pulse is just fine.
Pick: Colts 27, Ravens 13

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (10-6)(-5)
8:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome

So the last bastion of the NFC East is the Philadelphia Eagles? Huh, didn’t see that one coming. Even though I was 4-0 this past week and routinely trump the experts making predictions, I’m not perfect. Still, anyone who thinks this Eagles team is good enough to make it through to the Super Bowl is still smoking something. The Eagles happened to get lucky enough to face a pathetic Giants team that shouldn’t have been in the playoffs and then got lucky enough to escape, at home, by three points on a last-second field goal. Oh my goodness, look out for the Eagles! Maybe for their next trick they could lose to Tampa. Oh, that’s right, they already did that this season.

Fortunately, the Eagles have to face much tougher competition this week. And they have to do it on the road. In a place they already lost not more than three months ago. Since that time, the Saints have steadily gotten better week by week. The same cannot be said for the Eagles. So I see no reason to believe that the result of that October game is going to be any different than the one now. But, for arguments sake, let’s take a look at some numbers.

In terms of total yards, there is no better offense in the game than the one the Saints possess. Only the Colts and Chargers score more points a game. The Eagles on the other hand, possess a defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of yards and points allowed. However, against teams with winning records, both yards and points allowed go up dramatically for Philadelphia. Something along the lines of 40%. The Saints are currently 10-6. So they possess that winning record. Their offense is already scary enough. Add in the Eagles mediocre defense, with a penchant to give up long plays (against and offense that has a lot of home run hitters) and things could get ugly.

The Saints, more so than any team remaining in the playoffs, have a terrific home field advantage. This is a team to root for. I don’t feel for Tony Romo’s Cowboys, or the city of Baltimore, but how can you not feel for a team like Nawlins? I’ll give the Eagles the benefit of the doubt and I’ll say that they’ll hang in this game longer than they should. But the home crowd wills the Saints to their second ever playoff victory.
Pick: Saints 24, Eagles 20

SUNDAY
Seattle Seahawks (10-7) vs. Chicago Bears (13-3)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
Now, back to the Seahawks. No, Seattle didn’t look great last Saturday. They looked better than Dallas, but Detroit has looked better than Dallas recently. So that’s not saying much. I guess I have to come to realization that Seattle, and more importantly, Matt Hasselbeck are never going to get their act together this season. It’s a shame. If their offense is functioning properly, it is one of the more entertaining ones to watch.

As for the Bears, I don’t see what all the fuss is about. Yeah sure, the 13-3 record is nice. But Chicago was 11-5 last season, had the bye week and then got bounced in the second round by a superior Carolina team. This is the exact same Chicago team. This team is no better or no worse. The Bears still have horrible and obvious offensive deficiencies across the board. The only difference from the 2006 playoffs is the opponent they’re facing.

The Seahawks got their butts kicked 37-6 in Chicago early in the season. Everyone is quick to point out that Shaun Alexander didn’t play in that game. But is Alexander really worth 31 points? He’s still one of the best backs in the league, but no one is worth 31 points by themselves. This situation reminds me of the 91-92 Redskins. Early in the season, the Redskins beat the Lions 45-0 without Barry Sanders in the lineup. Before the two teams met in the NFC Championship game, with Sanders healthy and ready to go, there were many experts who believed that the Lions (who finished the season on a tear and were the hottest team going in to the playoff) would not only win but win comfortably. They believed the 45-0 game was an aberration because of Sanders’ absence. They believed he would make the difference.

In a way, those experts were right. Sanders did make a difference. The Lions didn’t lose by 45 points again. They only lost by 31 (again proving my theory that the 91-92 Redskins were the third best team in NFL history). So if Barry Sanders, who in my opinion is the greatest running back in NFL history, is only worth two touchdowns, what is Alexander worth to Seattle? One touchdown? 10 points maybe?

I think it will be close because back in the week 4, the Bears were riding high. Now, on offense, they have absolutely no confidence. So even though I don’t expect Seattle’s offense to score much more than they did in week 4, there is absolutely no way the Bears are putting up anything close to 37 points. It’s not going to happen. I almost want to pick the Seattle upset, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it happened. I just wouldn’t count on it.
Pick: Bears 16, Seahawks 13

New England Patriots (13-4) vs. San Diego Chargers (14-2)(-4.5)
4:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium

Here is the only question that needs asking: Can Marty Schottenheimer get out of his own way and let LaDainian Tomlinson win this game for him? Marty has gone far too long without screwing something up. This is still the same old Marty that can’t win big games. This is the same Marty that continues to play conservative or play the complete opposite of what his team is designed to do. Just look no farther than last season. The Chargers were more talented than they were this season. And they didn’t even make the playoffs. Why? Terrible coaching.

So far in 2006-07, Marty has managed not to trip himself up. It just feels like it’s going to happen eventually. Really, does the mental image of Schottenheimer holding up the Lombardi Trophy seem right to anyone? Can anyone actually picture that? I can’t either. I believe, before these playoffs are said and done, we’re going to see the real Marty. He’s going to over prepare. He’s going to think that the opposing coach will expect him to run LT, and end up countering by passing 40 times a game with one of the league’s worst quarterbacks. Or, he is going to run into a terrific offense (like Indianapolis’…hint, hint) and play for field goals and play not to lose. It’s going to happen, trust me. And it’s going to happen sooner rather than later.

The one positive about facing Bill Belichick (Why Belichick isn’t suspended is beyond me…he punched two cameramen in plain sight without even so much as a reprimand. How come that isn’t on ESPN nonstop?) is that there is no way that Marty can outthink the second coming of Pop Warner (eye roll). Now stay with me here, Marty will think that Belichick will be expecting him to run the ball 70% of the time. So Marty will decide to counter with a pass heavy game plan. Then he’ll remember that Belichick is a much better coach than he is and will expect him to change his game plan. So then Marty will stick with the run game. Belichick, on the other hand, will realize that Schottenheimer will try to outthink himself, so…you know what, screw this. New England is not as good as their record indicates, no team has success traveling 3,000 miles for a playoff game and San Diego is too talented to go one and done. Too talented even for Marty to screw up. That will come next week. Most likely.
Pick: Chargers 31, Patriots 21

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