Maryland Basketball: Has Anyone Seen My Cheer Sheet?

#24/NR Maryland Terrapins (22-7, 8-6 ACC) at
#14/14 Duke Blue Devils (22-7, 8-6 ACC)
Juan Dixon Memorial Arena – Durham, NC

So I’m sitting at work the other day, pretending to do something but with nothing to actually do, when my friend sends me a link. He is one of these guys who thinks it’s hilarious to send you some kind of porn link so when you open it everyone in the office sees and the boss gets angry, etc… But I opened it anyway. It turns out, the page he sent me too gave me several minutes of entertainment. And yes, I swear it wasn’t porn.

You all know that I dislike the Sports Dork on ESPN. He writes the same article over and over and over again and, for some reason, people actually continue to read it (kind of like this page, except I don’t write for a national network with the thin disguise of being neutral or somewhat unbiased). Maybe they are just as bored as me at work or something. I don’t know. But, this untalented nobody is able to write the same dribble every day, change a couple of sentences, have no idea what he is talking about and collect, what I can only assume, is a rather hefty paycheck. So this website lets you write your own Sports Guy column and proves just how untalented and unoriginal this dope is. It’s kind of like Mad Libs for sports columns. In fact, the version I created was funnier than most of his crap (again, I’m guessing because I haven’t visited his ESPN page in a long time). Good times. Here is the link if you want to try yourself.

Um, Mark…in case you haven’t noticed, Maryland is on a five game winning streak. Aren’t you going to talk about them? How about you tell us why you picked North Carolina this past weekend. You have some explaining to do, bucko!

Then there are these commercials for this movie 300. I must have seen the trailers over 100 times and I still don’t know what this movie is about. It appears to be some sort of Ancient Greek war story with monsters, digital effects and strange women dancing thrown in for some purpose or another. How many mythology buffs are going to go see this? It looked like the worst movie of the season until I saw the trailers for Reno 911. I can’t believe anyone would go see this. The television show, which is only 30 minutes, is awful. Completely not funny. I’m not even sure what the show is supposed to be. Is it a sketch comedy? Is it a mock-umentary? Mock-u-dramedy? So it looks like Hollywood is going to turn a weekly 30-minute steaming pile of garbage into a larger 100-minute steaming pile of garbage. Where can I stand in line? In all honesty, I liked Reno 911 the first time…when it was called Super Troopers. That movie was funny. This one won’t be.

Seriously, how about Maryland?!? They just beat the fifth ranked team in the country. Hello!!! They’re even playing Duke. This should be a layup for you. Can’t you at least make fun of the Dukies for awhile?

Speaking of commercials, what’s the deal with these dueling Dick Vitale commercials? First, he’s got some weird wig and short shorts on playing basketball for that non-delivery pizza brand. Then, he’s in this bizarre Hooters commercial, straining his neck not looking down at the fine figures that surround him in the ad. I can save Hooters the money. You don’t need Dick Vitale. You don’t need anybody. Here is what every one of their commercials should say: “We have great wings and ridiculously hot girls with no clothing serving them. Please come to Hooters.” That’s it! That’s the ad! And another thing, what’s the de--

That’s it, I’m leaving.

No, no wait…come back! You want Maryland analysis? Fine, I’ll dance.

It was a great win for Maryland. The Predictor was there in style, sitting 10 rows behind the white-clad student section. That makes a grand total of eight Maryland games since I’ve graduated, and I haven’t paid a dollar for any of the tickets. The arena was going nuts. That was the loudest that Comcast has ever been. It wasn’t Cole (no arena is), but it was as close as you’re going to get. Even the alumni made some noise! They didn’t forget to sit on their hands. It was unbelievable.

In fact, I’d say that was probably the best Maryland game I’ve ever attended. I’m going to call it a tie between that game and the 2002 Maryland-Duke game. The UMD-Duke game had a better atmosphere, and I had to camp out for two days in the freezing cold without a tent to get a ticket and then another night just to get into the game. It also included “The Steal”, one of the most recognized plays in Maryland history. You know the one. It happened at the end of the first half when Evil Knevil Williams looked around for his motorcycle but was picked clean by Steve Blake who laid it in at the buzzer. Ah, the memories. But the game was lopsided. Maryland put the beat down on the Dookies 87-73 in a game that wasn’t even that close (Maryland led by 20+ points most of the game). This UNC game had the atmosphere (but not Cole Field House) to go with the quality game. Plus, I was with some friends from home who get even crazier than I do during the games, so that was fun.

Ok, I know I picked UNC. So what? I thought they were going to win. Don’t lie and say that you didn’t think that going into the game. It wasn’t like I was sitting at the game draped in Sky Blue. I had picked the last seven Maryland games correctly. I’m allowed to get one wrong. If you are really going to criticize me for picking against Maryland, then why do you even come here? I’m allowed to have my opinions.

I hate to nitpick, but it wasn’t like Maryland really deserved to win that game. UNC missed their last eight free throws, they refused to cover D.J. Strawberry and they forgot Brendan Wright even existed for half of the game. They still only lost by two on the road. Throw in the inexcusable missed layup by Bobby Frasor and the resulting inevitable momentum swing with six minutes left, and you can only come to the conclusion that Maryland got really lucky in this ball game. Give them credit for playing hard, but don’t kid yourselves into thinking that the Terps were the better team the entire night. I certainly don’t mind taking a cheap win though. The committee isn’t going to take all the asterisks into account when determining seeding.

One final note. How about Mike Jones finally coming through in the clutch! 18 points including three huge shots during Maryland’s second half run. If Jones can get the midrange jumpers and the slashing floaters to go down with some regularity, there isn’t a player in the ACC that can stop him one-on-one. No one will be able to hang tight on him on the perimeter. They’ll have to respect his cuts and ball fakes. He becomes a more complete and dangerous player.

Now Maryland has to travel to the House that Juan Dixon Owns to face the Great White Nerds and their adorable fan base. When we last left the Dookies, Ratface was busy picking up the scraps of his team off the Comcast Center floor. And as much as I enjoyed that game, it seemed that the embarrassing loss has motivated the Nerds to play a little more inspired since then. Paulus has been the main reason for the sudden turnaround. Greg the Human Turnover Machine has, for the time being, stopped turning the ball over. He’s played “better” over the course of the last few weeks. I say “better” because those games have come against Georgia Tech and St. John’s. And I hate to break it to the cheer-sheet readers, but everyone in the country has had good games against the Jackets and Johnnies. Just remember that when Vitale and Mike Patrick gush about him tonight. The Turnover Machine’s numbers are much like Memphis’ record. Looks good on paper, but are hollow inside and cheapened by the lack of real competition.

The media however still feels the need to overrate the Dookies. Yes, once again the Fightin’ Geeks are climbing the rankings. They can be found at 14th in both polls. Maryland, on the other hand, is ranked 24th in the AP Poll. And despite Gary’s best efforts, Maryland is no where to be found in ESPN’s atrocity. I really don’t care about the polls. I usually don’t complain about them. They mean almost nothing. But how can you logically have Dook 10 spots or more ahead of Maryland? They have the exact same record. Maryland’s offense is vastly superior. Their defense actually compares favorably to Dook’s. They own a winning streak of one additional game. Plus, and here’s the kicker, they’ve already beaten the Dorks by a considerable margin. Can anyone tell me how the rankings look like they do? Anyone? Bueller?

Other than the Turnover Machine, the rest of the Dookies seem to be playing slightly better. Requisite Duke White Stiff One (McRoberts) is starting to remember that he’s a forward and should probably play inside more than he has been. This shouldn’t be a concern for Maryland, considering that White Stiff One is not as good as Tyler Hansbrough, James Mays or the Collins-Washington combination. Plus, Maryland has four bodies to throw at him. Not to mention that Requisite Duke White Stiff Two (Star Trek Captain Zoubek) doesn’t play well or enough to help McRoberts on the defensive end. Who stops both Gist and Ibekwe? Who stops Jones and Strawberry if they keep cutting? David McClure? DeMarcus Nelson? Oh please. People make Nelson out to be another Chris Duhon, except for the fact he has half the talent. You can’t possibly expect Half Nelson to stop Strawberry or Vasquez or whoever he matches up with. Plus, both the Turnover Machine and Screamin’ Scheyer are defensive liabilities. I see no reason Vasquez can’t have another great game. Combine that with the near certainty that Gary will decide to press Duke with their lousy point guard, and this game has track meet written all over it.

The weaknesses of this Dook version are the same problems that the 2006 team had. No depth. One or two dimensional players. The inability to put games away. And they don’t have nearly as much talent as they did last season. They have no scorer to stop runs like the 29-4 whopper that the Terps laid on them before. They have no proven guy to put the ball in the hands of down the stretch. They look clueless and frustrated trying to play stall ball in the last 10 minutes of every game. All Maryland has to do is keep the game close for the first 25-30 minutes and watch Dook wilt. As long as Gary throws waves of players at the Dookies and the Terps keep the game within reach, they’ll be ready to pounce at the end of the contest.

The only number that is worth looking at is this one: 72-60. That was the score from the first meeting. What exactly, has changed in the past three weeks? Not much. Sure, the Dookies are playing better. But so is Maryland. In the first game, Strawberry and Jones had pretty poor games. If those two play like they’ve been playing recently, then there is no way you can convince me that Duke suddenly got 12 points better in three weeks. Maryland is going to have to help the Dookies immensely if the Blow Devils hope to win.

The only other difference is the venue. Maryland has played fairly well in the recent years at Juan Dixon Indoor. The Dookies no longer intimidate them. Dook has also managed to lose three home games this season (and was awarded the Clemson game by the refs), which shows that they are most certainly vulnerable. And please, let’s not make a big deal about the caffeinated losers. They aren’t louder or more intimidating than any other student section. In fact, I love Gary’s quote earlier this week:

"It’s no crazier than here," Williams said. "They have about half the number of students at the game. We have 4,000; they have 2,000. They get there early, they hand out sheets to practice their cheers. If you think all that stuff is spur-of-the-moment that you see on television, I've got an exclusive for you. It's well-done. It's well-documented. If I see another story on Krzyzewskiville, I might get a little sick."

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

All the Terps have to do is ignore the fans, hope the refs aren’t too deep in Ratface’s pocket and play like they did last time against these clowns. Yea, though I walk through the Valley of the Shadow of Nerds, I will fear no cheer sheet: for Gary art with me; thy Predictor and his prognostication, they comfort me.

Maryland 75
Duke 71

Elsewhere in the ACC…

I was 4-1 during the weekend, to push the record to 49-24. I’m just giving the scores because I don’t have time to give more. The real job must come first.

Clemson 68, Miami 61
NC State 73, Wake Forest 64
Virginia Tech 82, Virginia 75
North Carolina 90, Georgia Tech 75

The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/26/07

For the first time all season, my number one team remains the same. The rest of the Top 10, and for that matter, the Top 25 gets a shake up. UNC falls. Florida falls. Wisconsin and Pitt, like the frauds they are, fall further. And finally, at long last, that team makes an appearance in the Top 25.

1. UCLA (25-3), LW-1: The Bruins finally have a week when they take care of business without screwing around with inferior opponents.
2. Texas A&M (24-4), LW-3: Despite OK State completing their massive tank job, the Aggies 20-point dominating win in Stillwater was very impressive. That’s never an easy place to win.
3. Ohio State (26-3), LW-6: Still unsure about putting the Buckeyes ahead of Florida, but they finally managed to beat a decent team so their record doesn’t look too inflated.
4. Kansas (25-4), LW-7: Very quietly, the Jayhawks have won 9 of their last 10 games by an average of 27 points. Just let that number sink in. 27-point margin of victory, on average, during the past month. Not bad at all.
5. North Carolina (24-5), LW-2: UNC is more talented than every team in the country and is stacked with several NBA picks. But at times, they play with no energy or cohesiveness. Sound familiar? We were saying the same things about UConn last February. Look out Chapel Hill.
6. Florida (25-4), LW-3: The problem with UNC is the same problem that the Gators have right now. No energy, too much apathy. Nice 4-point, 2-rebound effort from Shemale Joakim Noah against a Glen Davis-less LSU team.
7. Nevada (26-2), LW-8: Hey, the Wolf Pack have the NCAA’s best record. That’s got to count for something.
8. Memphis (25-3), LW-10: I’m beginning to think that if I got five coordinated friends together, I too could go undefeated through Conference USA right now.
9. Georgetown (22-5), LW-13: Forget being the hottest team on the East Coast. This is the hottest team in the nation. Suffocating defense with timely offense is much better than Pitt’s non-existent offensive attack.
10. Washington State (23-5), LW-9: Tough, but close loss at Oregon not too bad in the scheme of things. They are playing Wisconsin-style basketball better than Wisconsin is. And their doing it in a much better conference.
11. Wisconsin (26-4), LW-4: It’s not that the Badgers lost two games this week (although that doesn’t help their cause any). It’s that they haven’t beaten a good team since their early January win over Ohio State. In fact, until this week, they hadn’t even played a good team since then. The Big 10 is awful this season.
12. Oregon (22-7), LW-14: This is still a very good team that hit a rough patch the past couple of weeks. They play in one of the most competitive conferences in the country this season, so cut them a break. Their two wins over the Washington schools were solid.
13. Texas (21-7), LW-19: Two blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma are good enough to move the Horns up six spots. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, no top seed will want to face this team in a single-elimination tournament. The record is not indicative of how good this team is and will be in March.
14. Southern Illinois (25-5), LW-15: I have a real problem moving this Wisconsin wannabe up the rankings much higher than this. Their RPI of five seems wrong. Can we have that thing checked for mathematical errors please?
15. Pittsburgh (24-5), LW-12: I don’t know what’s worse…the loss to Georgetown or the narrow three-point win against dreadful Seton Hall? Either way, not a good week for the Panthers.
16. Notre Dame (22-6), LW-23: Beat down of desperate DePaul was good, but their home win against Marquette was even better.
17. Louisville (21-8), LW-17: Joining Georgetown in the hot teams column are the Cardinals. I had them too high in the last poll…17th feels just about right.
18. Maryland (22-7), LW-NR: As Gary Williams asked, if Maryland beat Duke, and has the exact same record as Duke, why aren’t they ahead of them in the polls? Good question, and following the win over UNC, I’m hard-pressed to answer that question.
19. Duke (22-7), LW-20: While Maryland was busy beating UNC and FSU, Duke was busy playing a tough non-conference game against St. John’s. Way to reach there, Ratface.
20. Southern Cal (21-8), LW-24: I’m just shocked USC got through a week when they didn’t lose to a inferior team. For their troubles, they get a boost of four ranking spots.
21. Marquette (22-8), LW-16: Their Oklahoma State death spiral started a little later than the Cowboys, but it’s still starting to cripple this team in the rankings and in the committee’s seeding process.
22. Air Force (23-6), LW-11: I over-rated them last week and I will not make the same mistake this week. I’m starting to doubt whether or not this is even the second best team in the Mountain West.
23. Virginia Tech (20-8), LW-NR: This week the good Virginia Tech showed up. Which means, more than likely, the bad Virginia Tech will make at least one appearance this week.
24. Michigan State (21-8), LW-NR: This is the one team I really do like from the Big 10. The Spartans took care of business at home against Wisconsin and Indiana, and can really make a jump in the rankings if they beat the Badgers against this week.
25. Virginia (19-8), LW-19: Loss to Miami has to be punished with a drop in the rankings. And yes UVA fans, I know you’ve beaten both Maryland and Duke. But neither of them lost to Appalachian State and Utah.

Next 10: Vanderbilt, Boston College, Arizona, UNLV, BYU, Kansas State, Butler, Tennessee, Xavier, Illinois

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until before Selection Sunday. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (7): Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10 (5): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Pac 10 (6): Arizona, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State
SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Florida State and Clemson are most certainly out. Syracuse jumps in and replaces Villanova. DePaul is the important team in the Big East. They have too many losses (12) to make the tournament but still have a decent conference record. Any team that finishes below them in the conference standings is in jeopardy. Nova is one of those teams. Illinois gets a spot for now. Texas Tech replaces free-falling Oklahoma State. The Pac-10 and SEC hold tight for now. Alabama is still very much on the borderline, and if Ole Miss hadn’t choked at South Carolina this past weekend, they probably would have replaced the Tide.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10: Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West: Air Force, BYU, UNLV

Notes: San Diego State is finishing strong. The SOS is good but the RPI is subpar. However, they are the hottest team in the Mountain West and may just run through the conference tournament anyway. They would be the next team in if they have a very strong showing the rest of the season. The other three teams, barring first round MWC losses, are basically locks. I would like to see UMass join the discussion, but their RPI and SOS are horrible. They need to win the A-10 tournament.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Toledo
Missouri Valley: Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Sun Belt: South Alabama
West Coast: Santa Clara
Western Athletic: Nevada

Notes: New Mexico State’s home loss to Fresno State is the Colonial’s gain. Old Dominion, fresh off a 10-game win streak to close the season, sneaks into the tournament. Bradley joins NMSU in the rejected column. Toledo replaces Akron for the MAC because of better conference record.

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tenn. State
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Pennsylvania
MAAC: Marist
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwestern: Mississippi Valley State

Maryland Basketball: When Did The ACC Expand Into The NBA?

#5/5 North Carolina Tar Heels (24-4, 10-3 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (21-7, 7-6 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

The question now asked is how long can Maryland keep this up? That’s what a couple of years of bad basketball will do to you. It makes you doubt success. You’re more willing to find flaws, even when Maryland is ripping apart Duke, winning consecutive road games and then pounding an FSU team that beat them badly a month before. There used to be a time, not too long ago (like three years ago), when we expected the Terps to win these games and it was a shock if they didn’t win and didn’t do it convincingly. Now it’s the other way around.

Of course, this is a pleasant question to answer. It’s not terrible debating when the hammer is going to come down again because it means your team is winning. It certainly beats asking “Why is 160-pound Jason Cain dominating us inside?” or “Do you think that home loss to Miami is going to send us to the NIT?”

All I know is that some time during that 29-4 run against Duke, the Maryland players, especially the Maryland seniors, looked at themselves and asked “Why can’t we do this every night?” There was no reason they couldn’t do that last season. Or the year before. Something clicked. This Maryland team is not overachieving. The previous two Maryland teams severely underachieved. Those two wins against Duke two years ago proved it. It wasn’t like Maryland went down to Durham and needed a clock malfunction to leave with a win. They convincingly beat a decent Dook team on the road in a place very few teams are able to accomplish that. But then there have been the losses to Clemson and the losses to Miami. There have been other games the past two seasons that leave you scratching your head and saying “How can they look so good one night and so bad the next?”

There is no easy answer to that question. It’s as if, all of sudden, the Terps “got it”. Whatever “it” is, Maryland found it. They’ve won five of the last six. In those six games, the starters are all averaging in double figures. The bench is contributing in key spots. Open three point looks that didn’t go down a month ago are now barely touching the net on the way through. The free throw shooting is back to a respectable number. Maryland now is back to having more fast breaks and fewer turnovers than their opponents. This is what Maryland basketball looked like three years ago.

Every time you look up, someone else in the Maryland rotation is stepping up. For the first nine ACC games, it was James Gist, the occasional Mike Jones appearance and no one else. Now Greivis Vasquez is (gladly) making me eat my words. D.J. Strawberry for the first time since two seasons ago looks completely healthy. And it’s showing. In the past six games, five different Terps led the team in scoring. At least one Terp has had five assists in each of the six games (that includes Vasquez’s 11 assist game against Clemson and Hayes going over five assists four times). The rebounding is spread around. The steals are being spread around. Everyone is contributing in every category.

Take the win over FSU for example. The entire Maryland starting five was in foul trouble from the midway point of the first half. By early in the second, all five had three fouls. So what happens? Boom Osby steps up for the first time in two months and gets 15 points. Eric Hayes lays down eight dimes and four boards. Ibekwe, despite playing only 17 minutes because of fouls, still gets seven rebounds and five blocked shots. Mike Jones, who is still considered by many (not me) to be a defensive liability, comes up with a pair of key steals and finishes two other fast breaks. James Gist only managed 13 points and six rebounds. A month ago, if he did that, Maryland would have had no chance. Now, they’re winning by 18.

Feeling the love? That’s good. Remember this feeling. It may be gone by Sunday night. This isn’t slumping Florida State paying a visit to College Park this weekend. This will be the first look for Maryland at the big, bad North Carolina Tar Heels.

This version of UNC, much like the 2005 national championship team, is pretty much an NBA team masquerading as amateurs. Several players on this squad, if it weren’t for the newly coined and named “Durant Rule”, would be playing or at least sitting on the bench in one of Association’s asylums. Instead, these sophomore and freshman get a free “education” (which of course assumes that any of them are attending class anymore) and a much smaller bank account for all their troubles.

Last season, when it was necessary to talk about UNC, the discussion began and ended with Tyler Hansbrough. Hansbrough is still putting up All-ACC numbers with 18.7 ppg and 7.7 rpg. However, Hansbrough numbers have remained stagnant from last year because of all the new weapons around him. Combine the numbers that haven’t improved, and all the new freshman that will be in the draft this season (Durant, Oden, half of UNC, etc…), and Hansbrough made a huge mistake going into the NBA draft following last season. Still, his mistake is Maryland’s problem. When UNC is going good, they’ll feed it in constantly to Hansbrough for easy baskets. When UNC is going bad, Hansbrough still is focus for the offense, but occasionally his teammates will forget to get it to him inside and fall in love with the three.

Freshman forward Brendan Wright and freshmen guards Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson join Hansbrough in Chapel Hill this season. Wright, who right now appears to be the third best player in the up coming draft, is 6’9” with freakishly long arms and an amazing vertical. His 15 ppg have given UNC a legitimate second big man and has made it nearly impossible for any team to guard the interior if the Heels make a conscious effort to get the ball inside. Wright also grabs 6.4 rpg and blocks at least two shots a game. The only glaring weakness in Wright’s game right now is his love for putting the ball on the floor when he’s posting up in the half court game. He gives the ball away too much under the hoop for someone so physical that he should be going up strong almost every time he gets it.

Lawson gives the Heels a solid point guard, something Carolina didn’t have at times last year after Raymond Felton went to the NBA a year early (the fact that Hansbrough still put up the numbers he did last season without a point guard getting him the ball makes those figures all the more impressive and his numbers this year seem pedestrian by comparison). Lawson’s 5.2 apg isn’t eye-popping, but his 2.2/1 assist/turnover ration is. For a freshman to come into the ACC and have that kind of a/t is striking. He also shoots 53% from the floor, which is incredible for a guard.

Even with three proven scorers, Roy Williams added Ellington to have a fourth scoring option just in case. Ellington puts in 12 a game as a pure two guard. He looks for his shot and will take if every time. He doesn’t come up with a lot of assists (only 2.1 a game, which is almost the same number as Hansbrough), but he shoots well from everywhere on the floor. I don’t think Williams minds that he doesn’t pass all that much.

These four underclassmen, who would probably all be taken in the first round of the upcoming draft, are good enough to lead any team to the top of the ACC. But, combined with solid role players like 10th year senior Reyshawn Terry, forwards Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard and guards Wes Miller (requisite white guard who can get hot and kill you with threes) and Bobby Frasor, it’s a shock that UNC has lost to any team this season. It really is. There is no obvious flaw watching the Heels play.

Carolina has lost twice to Virginia Tech, which may be the only team that can match up athletically with the Heels at every position. The Terps don’t have players like that at all five positions, so going man-to-man and trying to run with UNC probably won’t work. The Heels also lost to NC State. The Pack slowed the pace of the game down considerably, shot 60.5% from the field and still only managed to beat Carolina by four at home. Maryland doesn’t do very well trying to slow the game down, so that theory doesn’t play to the Terps strengths.

If you are looking for a coherent strategy for beating North Carolina, you aren’t going to find one. There is a reason this team has spent all season in the Top 5 of the rankings. Carolina, at least early in the game, will look inside. In the first half, it is essential that Maryland keeps Hansbrough from receiving the ball. Once he gets it inside, he’s nearly impossible to stop. Plus, the refs protect him and he gets almost every call. Force Carolina to become a jump shooting team. Lawson and Ellington are great shooters, but you are at least making UNC slightly one-dimensional and easier to defend. The longer you keep the ball away from Hansbrough, the more UNC forgets about him. Duke did a good job of this for most of the game before their two big men got in foul trouble. They stopped Hansbrough from getting the ball, they forced UNC into a half court game, and Lawson made some bad decisions in the half court set. This led to easy Duke points and a decent lead. The Devils are very thin, so they couldn’t hang with UNC’s deep bench later in the game when Williams was bringing in waves of players at every time out. But their first half blueprint should be followed by the Terps. Maryland at least has the depth to keep up with UNC assuming that Gist and Ibekwe manage to stay out of foul trouble. And keep the turnovers to a minimum. If the Terps allow the Heels get out and run, forget this one.

Like I mentioned before, I’m surprised every time UNC plays a close game, much less loses one. This team is just super talented everywhere on the floor. They are so athletic, fast and tall, that they could probably compete for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. I just don’t know how Maryland can compete with these guys for 40 minutes.

North Carolina 86
Maryland 80

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Another 4-2 set of games puts me at 45-23.

SATURDAY
Miami at Virginia Tech
On paper, this is an easy 20 point win for the Hokies. But this is the same team that sweeps UNC and is swept by NC State. Miami’s style of play won’t allow the Hokies to turn this game into a dunk contest like their blowout victory against BC. Tech struggles at times in half court games. Zabian Dowdell has to step up and be a leader like he was earlier in the season.
Pick: Virginia Tech 73, Miami 66

NC State at Florida State
It would be a lot easier for me and everyone else if FSU just lost this game and officially knocked themselves from postseason play. Probably won’t happen.
Pick: Florida State 74, NC State 59

Clemson at Boston College
As for Clemson, see the above post on FSU. Can we stop this charade and make it easy on me to predict who is coming out of the ACC? A win here probably puts Clemson in the NCAA’s. A loss puts them in the NIT baring an unlikely run in the conference tournament. As for Boston College, it appears it took them three weeks to feel the loss of Sean Williams, but his absence is starting to affect the Eagles. Their interior defense has been burned for so many dunks and layups the last few games. Clemson has the inside talent to give them trouble. I just can’t see BC losing three in a row at home.
Pick: Boston College 81, Clemson 71

Georgia Tech at Virginia
Well, that weak two headed monster of Cain & Baltic Trash on the inside is starting to catch up to the Wahoos. Or did all you UVA fans expect that listless performance at Coral Gables? This team will not do anything in the NCAA’s with those two stiffs inside unless they play Maryland.
Pick: Virginia 84, Georgia Tech 79

Maryland Basketball: Adjusted For Common Sense

Florida State Seminoles (17-10, 5-8 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (20-7, 6-6 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

Most Maryland fans left the team for dead after an embarrassing non-showing in Tallahassee. The Terps kept the game close for the first 10 minutes, before falling 96-79 in their second straight poor road performance. Al Thornton, not surprisingly, had 27 points and eight rebounds and torched the Terps on both ends like the kid wearing the black jersey in that wickedly cool new Nike shoe commercial. That wasn’t the problem. Maryland allowed 24 points to Jason Rich, 16 points to Toney Douglass and 15 points to Isaiah Swann, including two four-point plays. The Seminoles shot 61.7% from the floor, 47% from three land and 87.5% from the foul line. They out rebounded Maryland by 10. They blocked more shots, stole more passes and created fewer turnovers. The 17-point beating was pretty generous considering the way that Maryland and FSU played. The loss sunk the Terps to 2-5 in the conference and elevated the Seminoles to 4-4. Florida State would soon be 5-4 after beating Duke in Durham and appeared headed to an easy tournament bid.

As Florida State makes their trip to College Park, it’s not hard to determine where the two teams had their fortunes change. For the Seminoles, it came late in the game following their win against the Devils. Late in their loss against Clemson, the Seminoles lost key role player Douglass to an injury, and their offense hasn’t seemed to be the same since. After averaging 81.7 points a game in the seven games before Douglass’ injury. Those included 22-point efforts by Douglass against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, his aforementioned 16-point game against the Terps and two 15-point games against Duke and Wake.

Since his injury, FSU is averaging 63 points a game. I mentioned last week how Clemson’s productivity had dropped 14 points since the midway point in their ACC schedule. FSU’s has dropped 18 points. That’s why they’ve lost their last four games and come limping into College Park with a 5-8 ACC record and would be decisively out of the Big Dance if the season ended today. The good news for FSU is if they do beat Maryland, then they finish their season against NC State and Miami, which should be two more wins to get them back to 8-8. But they must win here or they have no chance unless they run the tables in the ACC tourney.

For Maryland, the season turned somewhere during their 29-4 run over the Dookies two Sunday’s ago. It was as if Maryland decided, as a team that “Hey, you know what? Maybe we should try playing hard for more than 10 minutes a game, stop turning the ball over 20 times and not covering the perimeter and see if that helps us get more wins.” And you know something, that unusual strategy has worked the last three games.

The Terps now stand at 20 wins. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, no ACC team with 20 wins has ever been left out. That’s a great sign, but you can bet that streak will end this season. Maryland, along with Clemson and Georgia Tech, will all be at the 20 win plateau by the end of the ACC tournament. One of those three teams isn’t going. And if FSU makes a rally, they still may not go either. More importantly for Maryland is the RPI, which currently stands at a magnificent 21.

Even more important, by my standards, is Maryland’s ranking when it comes to adjusted scoring margin. The ASM takes into account how many points you score, how many you allow, and compares the numbers to the opponents you’ve played adjusted slightly to give road and neutral wins greater importance. The scale theoretically ranges from infinity to negative infinity, but anything above 10 is a great score. While the committee doesn’t look at the ASM carefully, I think it may be the most scientific way to rank the teams.

Currently, the top three teams in the polls are Wisconsin, Ohio State and Florida. We all know the Big 10 is down, so while the Badgers and Buckeyes beat down on patsies like Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan and Northwestern, the other teams in the Top 10 had real tests (Not surprisingly, in Wisconsin’s first test in a month, they got drubbed last night at Michigan State). So the polls, as we all know, are severely overrated and a terrible way to judge the best teams in the country. The RPI is better, but it still has flaws. Southern Illinois, for example, plays in the inflated Missouri Valley. SIU is rated 5th in RPI. You can’t honestly tell me that SIU is the 5th best team in America, can you? How did they get that high you ask? Well, teams like Wichita State and Northern Iowa go out and play incredibly hard schedules, win a few games against good teams from power conferences, then settle back to their conference schedule. SIU, who didn’t schedule anyone remotely tough, is able to beat a tired and worn down WSU and NIU team and piggy back on their previous wins. Basically, SIU allowed the rest of the conference to play hard schedules, then beats those teams, and gets credit in the RPI ranking for their schedule and their opponents' schedule.

The adjusted scoring margin does not take schedule strength directly into account (but does, as I said before, take into account home and road games). It takes into account the points you score/allow and the points your opponents score/allow. So eventually, your opponents winning margin does come into play. But in order for the ASM to be positively effected, you have to actually beat those opponents. What your conference brethren do will only help your ASM slightly.

Maryland’s offensive ASM is 12.7, which is sixth best in the country. In other words, Maryland scores 12.7 points more a game than the average of what all their opponents have scored per game. Add in the above average defensive ASM of 2.9 (which means Maryland allows 3 points fewer a game than what their opponents, on average have given up), and Maryland’s total ASM score is 15.6. That ranks Maryland 11th in the nation in ASM. The top three teams? North Carolina (24.2), Florida (22.3) and Texas A&M (20.8)…three teams that look destined to play in the Final Four this season. Maryland is sandwiched between Georgetown (ranked 10th with 15.7) and Notre Dame (ranked 12th with 15.2). That’s a bit more accurate than any AP or RPI poll

Basically the ASM is a common sense ranking. If a team scores a lot more than its opponents, and gives up a lot less, they should be ranked higher. Teams like Wisconsin or Pittsburgh can’t score and don’t beat teams by a lot. Sure they win, but they don’t do it by much. They should be ranked lower than teams that win convincingly. So while the committee may not notice ASM much, it bodes well for Maryland in the long run. It shows that Maryland, over the course of the entire season, has played well and is able to beat its opponents by a comfortable margin. When they win.

So can Maryland make up a 17 point deficit? Without Toney Douglass, that’s 16 to 18 points off the board right there considering what happened the last time the two teams played and the effect Douglass has had on FSU’s offense since. Home court is always a five to six point swing. The confidence factor is decisively in Maryland’s favor. So why not? Well, this game has all the makings of a classic trap. Maryland comes off a big road win, has UNC and Duke waiting in the wings in the upcoming week, and gets a home game against a desperate team. Reeks of a close game. Reeks of a game that Maryland is going to need every easy inside basket they can get. Let’s get James Gist involved early and often, and do whatever it takes to get the W.

Maryland 82
Florida State 77

Elsewhere in the ACC…

A 4-2 week makes me 41-21.

WEDNESDAY
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
Remarkably, many still have Georgia Tech in the tournament. I’m not sure why, but it may have something to do with expectations of a win in this game. Paul Hewitt’s curious substitution patterns shouldn’t stand in the way here.
Pick: Georgia Tech 78, Wake Forest 62

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Um…you got me. Anybody have an idea for this one? It all depends on which Boston College and Virginia Tech teams show up. When picking between two completely unpredictable teams, it’s always a safe bet to pick the home side.
Virginia Tech 80, Boston College 73

Virginia at Miami
After tough games against Longwood and Florida State, UVA continues it’s grueling schedule with a trip down to the ACC’s South Pole. Assuming J.R. Reynolds doesn’t get arrested for possession (which he’s narrowly escaped before), the Hoos should come back home with another win and possibly first place in the conference.
Pick: Virginia 84, Miami 65

NC State at North Carolina
Unless NC State shoots 100% from beyond the arc in the second half again, they don’t stand a chance. However, the Wolfpack did exceed that three ACC win total that I set for them at the beginning of the season. I guess that’s reason to celebrate? Just remember Pack fans, under Herby, you guys made the last five tournaments. Maybe Sir Sidney isn’t all he’s cracked up to be.
Pick: North Carolina 93, NC State 71

THURSDAY
Duke at Clemson
Duke is back baby! That terrific home win over Georgia Tech proves it! All the haters can stuff it, the Dookies are going to make a run now. Please…wake me up when Duke is bounced in the second round next month.
Pick: Clemson 73, Duke 70

The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/19/07

The Top 5 would have been shaken up a bit if nearly every team in it or near it didn’t lose this past week. UNC and UCLA continue to go in and out of the top spot again. Worst loss of the week? Tie between Virginia Tech getting embarrassed in Raleigh, Pittsburgh getting destroyed on its home floor by Louisville and USC handing Little Herby his first Pac-10 win at Arizona State. Making it equally hard to get the Top 25 together this week is the fact that many teams lost two games: Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Boston College, Arizona, Oregon and Indiana.

1. UCLA (23-3), LW-2: Managed to get through their desert run with no problems. Their win in Tucson goes a long way winning the wild Pac-10
2. North Carolina (23-4), LW-1: Some teams you know how to beat. Other teams have your number. Virginia Tech has the Heels number right now.
3. Texas A&M (22-4), LW-3: A loss on a buzzer beater to a desperate Texas Tech team isn’t cause for concern or a reason to drop them this week.
4. Wisconsin (26-2), LW-5: Still not impressed by Wisconsin (or the Big Ten for that matter). Only one of their last five games came against a team with a winning record. Two against Michigan State and one at Ohio State should give us a real look at the Badgers.
5. Florida (24-3), LW-4: One near loss to Alabama and a blow out loss to Vanderbilt should drop them further down. I’m being real generous here.
6. Ohio State (24-3), LW-6: Common sense rule in effect. If OSU has already lost to both Florida and Wisconsin, and they both have better or identical records, why in the world should the Buckeyes be ranked over them? You can ponder that while OSU is the top-ranked team this week in both polls.
7. Kansas (23-4), LW-7: The Jayhawks avoided the upset bug while running through the weak sisters of the Big XII North. Big game in the Little Apple and KSU tonight.
8. Nevada (24-2), LW-9: Bracket Buster domination of Northern Iowa gives me a little bit of confidence that the Wolf Pack can actually make a run in March.
9. Washington State (22-4), LW-10: Only one game for the Cougars as they managed to trip up in-state rival U-Dub in a very close game. Do they have enough offense to win in the coming weeks?
10. Memphis (23-3), LW-12: Impressive win in Spokane this past week. I’ve kept the undeserving Tigers out of the Top 10 as long as possible.
11. Air Force (23-4), LW-15: Am I over ranking them? Probably. I just love gritty, hard-nosed teams from the Mountain West.
12. Pittsburgh (23-4), LW-8: Bad, bad loss to Lousiville. That is the second time they’ve been blown out at home. Then they followed that up with a near loss to Washington.
13. Georgetown (20-5), LW-19: The loss to Pittsburgh earlier make it tough for me to let they Hoyas jump Pitt. But two nice wins this week anyway.
14. Oregon (20-7), LW-11: Yes, after two losses, they should probably be much lower. Still, some of their great wins before the last two weeks can’t be ignored completely. And they play in the cannibalistic Pac-10.
15. Southern Illinois (23-5), LW-NR: This could be the best team to come out of the Missouri Valley since those late 90’s Creighton teams.
16. Marquette (21-7), LW-12: Three straight losses in the Big East, two of them at home, isn’t going to help them a lot.
17. Louisville (19-8), LW-NR: Meanwhile, Louisville goes on the road to knock off both Pitt and Marquette. However, Marquette did beat them earlier in the season, and their record is better than the Cardinals. So they get the ranking right above them.
18. Texas (19-7), LW-NR: Let’s not forget the Longhorns. Does anybody want to face Kevin Durant in a single-elimination tournament? This could be the toughest team to figure out in the NCAA’s.
19. Virginia (18-7), LW-NR: Ignoring the overall record for a minute, it is impossible to look past Virginia’s 9-3 conference record in the country’s toughest conference.
20. Duke (20-7), LW-NR: After two weeks without Duke, federal law told me I had to put the Dookies back in this week. I feel 20th may still be way too high.
21. Boston College (18-8), LW-14: The losses this past week aren’t going to hurt BC in the long run. Still, losing consecutive home games to Duke and UNC was an opportunity missed by the Eagles to put BC basketball on the map in New England.
22. Vanderbilt (18-8), LW-NR: Kevin Stallings, who was already one of my favorite under-the-radar coaches, went to the top of the list when he punked Joakim Noah this weekend.
23. Notre Dame (20-6), LW-NR: How does a 20-6 Big East team receive no votes in both the AP and ESPN poll?
24. Southern Cal (19-8), LW-20: Awful loss to ASU is at least balanced out by a solid win against Arizona on the road.
25. Alabama (19-7), LW-NR: Hey, the Tide keep hanging around. Win over Kentucky may have saved their season this past week.

Next 10: West Virginia, BYU, Butler, Arizona, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Kansas State, Kentucky

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until before Selection Sunday. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (7): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia
Big 10 (4): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac 10 (6): Arizona, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State
SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Florida State and Georgia Tech are out in the ACC jumble. Clemson and Maryland cannot afford to finish below .500 in conference play. Villanova is on the borderline in the Big East, and Louisville must finish 10-6 in conference play. The Big 10 down, but Michigan State gets the last at large bid based on RPI (31). Syracuse (RPI 63) and Illinois are on the outside looking in right now. The Big 12 is pretty much cut and dry unless Texas Tech makes a run or Oklahoma State continues their collapse. Stanford gets into the tourney right now based on the overall strength of the conference. The SEC is a mess. Alabama has to get in, despite being at 6-6 right now in the SEC, because there is no way that an entire division is left out of the Big Dance. I’m not sold on Tennessee getting in despite their RPI. Georgia’s numbers look good on paper, but they’ve beaten no decent SEC teams yet. Out for now.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10: Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West: Air Force, BYU, UNLV

Notes: Xavier, while not technically in first, should come out of the A10. Regardless, the A10 is a one bid league. Same with Conference USA if Memphis wins the conference tournament. If they lose, that’s one less bid for the big boys. The Mountain West has a solid three bids, and possibly four if SDSU gets its act together soon.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Akron
Missouri Valley: Bradley, Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Sun Belt: South Alabama
West Coast: Santa Clara
Western Athletic: Nevada, New Mexico State

Notes: The Colonial, based on George Mason last year, may get two teams. If they do, the second team would be Old Dominion. Either way, that conference tournament is going to be intense. Butler, like Xavier, is not technically in first but should come out on top in the Horizon at the end. The MAC has Akron, and possibly Kent State if they finish strong. The Missouri Valley right now should get four, although Bradley is on very shaky ground. The Sun Belt, after years of solid tournament teams, is really, really down this season. Almost bad enough to send them to the small conference category. Gonzaga shouldn’t get in from the WCC unless they win their conference tournament. They can’t possibly be the favorite this season. The WAC benefits from the lack of Gonzaga by getting a solid NMSU in at the time being. And don’t be surprised if Utah State sneaks back into the picture.

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tenn. State
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Pennsylvania
MAAC: Marist
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast: Central Conn. State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwestern: Jackson State

Notes: Of these teams, only Winthrop is a potential at large squad. Their RPI (because of their conference) is bad, but their record and some of their victories are going to help. Davidson could possibly make it if they win out and lose to Appalachian State in the finals of the Southern tournament. Every other conference will get one, and only one, bid…which ever team makes it out of the respective tournaments.

Maryland Basketball: March Comes Early

Maryland Terrapins (19-7, 5-6 ACC) at
Clemson Tigers (19-6, 5-6 ACC)
Littlejohn Coliseum - Clemson, SC

I wasn’t pleased with the effort. I was pleased with the result. Maryland fooled around with NC State for 25-30 minutes, then finally realized that they were much better than Sidney Lowe’s team of six players and kicked it into another gear.

I’m not sure how excited I can get over this win. On one hand, this is a game that the Maryland of the past few years wouldn’t have won. Plus it was a road game. Anytime you win on the road in conference you help your cause immensely. On the other hand, it was against NC State. As I chronicled in the last post, it’s hard to get excited about a game that they were supposed to win and they struggled for the majority of the game to do it.

Maryland has to face what could very well be a NCAA tournament elimination game. When we last saw Clemson, they were 17-0, the last undefeated team in the country. After the Terps handed them a five point loss at Comcast, the Tigers have been in a major downwards spiral. Since leaving College Park, Clemson lost five of its next seven. And they’ve done so in a variety of ways. They’ve been blown out at Georgia Tech. They were blown out by more at home against UNC. They lost on a buzzer beater against Wake…a loss that is going to look real bad in the coming weeks. They collapsed at home against Virginia, giving up a double-digit lead in the closing minutes. And they were beaten by the clock-operator in Durham.

Now Clemson sits at 5-6 in conference. Their four notable out of conference wins came against Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Minnesota. Other than Georgia, none of those teams have a shot at making the Dance. Even Georgia is on the bubble fringe. And judging by the way that Minnesota and MSU have played, Clemson’s RPI would be better if they didn’t play either of those teams. The wins over those two may actually hurt their tournament chances.

Clemson, despite the hot start, has to get to 8-8 in conference. Following Maryland tomorrow, they have home games against Duke and Miami, and road trips to Virginia Tech and Boston College. Somewhere in there, they have to find three wins, or two wins and at least one win in the ACC tournament.

The problem for Clemson, as has been the case the past decade, is their offense. In their first four ACC games, including the one against Maryland, the Tigers scored 79 points per game. That resulted in a 3-1 record, including an impressive win in Tallahassee. During the last seven games, the Tigers have averaged 65 points per game. That’s a 14 point drop! Think about how much that is over the course of a ballgame. Assuming no four point plays, that’s a minimum of five possessions. Their field goal percentage has dropped dramatically. The assists per game have fallen. The turnovers have risen. The shine has come off K.C. Rivers, who scored in double-digits in each of the first 18 games, but only twice in the last seven. Basically, the entire offense has slumped. Hence, the 14-point swing.

In the last meeting between these two, Clemson shot nearly 50%. Maryland, on the other hand, shot an incredible 62.7%. Neither of these teams will shoot that well tomorrow, so don’t expect another 92-87 game. So the boards become a lot more important than in the January meeting. The Terps outrebounded Clemson 33-26 in the first game, but that’s mainly because all the missed shots seemed to come on the Clemson offensive end. The Tigers outrebounded Maryland offensively 16-11. Heck, James Mays had 10 offensive boards by himself. That kind of gap cannot happen again. That is five additional second chance opportunities for Clemson, a team that is five possessions worse offensively since the last meeting.

Also, the Terps have to come out with the balanced scoring they showed in January. All five starters scored in double figures. Lost in the shuffle of Greivis Vasquez-mania, D.J.’s resurgence and James Gist’s inside-outside dominance, has been the lack of Mike Jones. Let’s not forget about this guy. He’s still a pretty good shooter. Give him some chances early in the game. If it doesn’t work, then try something else. But if he gets going early, the rest of the team gets that much more dangerous.

Clemson seems to be having one of their patented swoons. They still have plenty of time to save their season, starting tomorrow. This game will be played with March intensity as both teams know the importance of this game. The winner of this one gets to .500 in conference play and is in good position for the final four games. The loser is left scrambling to keep afloat in the murky ACC.

Maryland 74
Clemson 71

Elsewhere around the ACC…

After I was starting to pick up steam and improve the record, I ran into a 1-4 midweek stretch, where only Maryland’s win over State saved me from taking the squadoosh. 37-19 is where I stand now.

SATURDAY
Florida State at Virginia
Let me take some time to address some of the comments I have received recently. A couple of weeks ago, the Hoos played Maryland for the second time. During the post, I stated that Virginia is a team “that has several obvious flaws.” This apparently enraged the UVA fanbase (all three of you?) and several left comments on the page.

First off, let me encourage you, and anyone else reading to leave all the comments they want. I do enjoy getting comments…even when the grammar and spelling is somewhat lacking (I thought UVA was supposed to be a good public school). I will try to respond to the comments as soon as possible. So in all seriousness, feel free to leave whatever you want here.

Second, before I get to the complaints, let me state that I correctly picked Virginia to win that game, despite my above comments. I also said in November, way before anyone else, including the majority of UVA fans, that Virginia would make the NCAA tournament. Finally, I love watching Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds. They’re both very special guards and they play with energy and enthusiasm which is lacking in most of college basketball. So guys, it’s nothing personal. Taunting me because Virginia beat Maryland isn’t going to keep me up at night. I did predict it after all.

Now to my comment. I think the majority of you were enraged that I said that Virginia had several obvious flaws without stating what they actually were. Fair enough. In my defense, I didn’t have time to spell them out, and I said they were kind of obvious. I figured that most college basketball fans would know what they were. But here they are anyway. Virginia, right now, has two flaws which are going to be extremely damaging in March. The first is its frontcourt. Now I know that Jason Cain had gone off on Maryland twice this year, and that’s very embarrassing. But a good team (in the ACC or otherwise), which Maryland isn’t (I would call them average), isn’t going to be scared of the UVA inside combination of Cain and Mikalauskas. They just aren’t. Among the top four or five teams in the conference, this is by far the worst inside paring. In the NCAA tournament, Virginia is going to have a game where Reynolds struggles to shoot and the other team keys on Singletary (or the other way around). When this happens, UVA is going to have to rely on Jason Cain, or Mamadi Diane, or someone else to win them the game with easy inside baskets. Does any UVA fan really feel confident in anyone other than Reynolds or Singletary coming through when the game is on the line? Plus, the lack of solid big men hurts on the defensive end. UVA right now is a six or seven seed in the NCAA’s. What happens if they face Ohio State and Greg Oden in the second round? Or Nick Fazakes and Nevada? Or Pittsburgh and Aaron Gray? Or Texas A&M and Joseph Jones? Who stops these guys if Virginia plays them?

The other problem is related to the first one. Virginia doesn’t possess a consistent third scorer. Diane will have his good games. So will Cain. So will a handful of other players. But there has been no consistent third scorer for UVA. You can’t win in March with a two person team that has no inside game. You just can’t. Virginia is a great story. They should easily make the NCAA tournament. Dave Leitao is doing a great job rebuilding Pete Gillen’s mess. This has already been a successful season for the Hoos. But to expect them to get deep into March is crazy. This team, at best, is a sweet 16 team. Most likely, the Cavs won’t make it out of the first weekend.
Pick: Virginia 83, Florida State 74

Miami at Wake Forest
I’m really not required to talk about this game, am I? When in doubt, go with the home team.
Pick: Wake Forest 69, Miami 63

North Carolina at Boston College
How many times can you remember the two top teams in the conference, playing each other after both of them came off losses at home? I can’t think of any off the top of my head. Boston College lost their game against Duke because they didn’t try for the majority of the game. Al Skinner should have them fired up. On the other side, I don’t think UNC did anything wrong against Virginia Tech. The Hokies were just better and matched up more favorably. The motivation factor belongs to BC, and I think they’ll come out inspired at home. They can’t play that poorly two weeks in a row.
Pick: Boston College 85, North Carolina 80

SUNDAY
Georgia Tech at Duke
Well, it was fun while it lasted. Credit to Duke for taking what BC gave them. Still, it got mighty close at the end there when Boston College decided that turning the ball over wasn’t an effective offensive strategy. Duke takes this one is a bit of revenge from an earlier loss, but it will be much closer than it should be.
Pick: Duke 75, Georgia Tech 67

Virginia Tech at NC State
While the letdown factor is at play here, Seth Greenberg won’t let his team lose twice at the hands of a undermanned and poorly coached squad. Look for the Hokies to win big on the road, despite the appearance of this being a perfect trap game.
Pick: Virginia Tech 78, NC State 64

Maryland Basketball: If You Can't Go To College, Hire Sidney Lowe!

Maryland Terrapins (18-7, 4-6 ACC) at
NC State Wolfpack (13-10, 3-7 ACC)
RBC Center – Raleigh, NC

So the easiest question to ask, and the hardest to answer, is why can’t the Terps play like that every night? In the immortal words of Michael Wilbon, that was a BEAT DOWN! It’s great when the Terps can pile on to the misery of someone else’s season instead of the other way around. That game alone should send Ratface scrambling out the side exit of his dump in Durham with another phony back injury.

I know there’s the widely held theory that Maryland only plays like that against Duke because they only get up for Duke. But that just can’t be true. Maryland plays 14 other ACC games each year and you know that the players are too proud to mail in 14 conference games. I buy the fact they always play harder against Duke, and that they’ll mail in some games, but not all of them.

The answer to that first question over the long term is hard to find. Gary’s teams have always had a history of playing up to better teams and playing down to lesser teams. But you would have to consider Duke a good team this year (which they aren’t) in order for that case to be made.

Here are the reasons the Terps looked so impressive against Duke this season. One, Duke is not good. It’s even hard to call them mediocre this season. Everyone, even myself, has been overrating this team from day one. Yes, I haven’t overrated Duke like most. But even I gave Ratface credit that he would at least produce an above average squad. That appears to be credit undeserving for the time being. Two, Maryland does tend to play a bit harder against Duke than anyone else, especially because of the crowd intensity for that game. Three, Maryland matches up well against this particular Duke outfit.

Much has been made about Maryland’s zone pressure defense. This season, for the most part, it has been a complete bust. But that’s not because of execution. It’s because Maryland uses it at the wrong time against wrong teams. I’m not sure which member of the coaching staff thought pressing Virginia, with Sean Singletary running point, was a great idea when the Terps were already down a handful of baskets. However, pressing Duke and Greg the Human Turnover Machine makes sense. Duke doesn’t have the athletes to beat Maryland’s press. And the Terps made them pay. By the time Duke got settled in their offense, which basically revolves around getting it inside to McRoberts (assuming he isn’t on the bench crying), they were down 14 points and it was the second half.

So now the inevitable second question: which Maryland team shows up tomorrow? All it takes is a quick look at the ACC standings to see that NC State is not very good (more on that in a moment). This game isn’t going to receive much fanfare outside of the two fanbases, and isn’t important on the national level. Maryland will be on the road following a win in their biggest home game of the season. Despite this game being important for Maryland, these are the games that the Terps usually don’t show up for.

NC State, contrary to my prediction, is not the worst team in the ACC. Wake Forest and Miami have that distinction. However, it’s not like the Wolfpack are lighting up the ACC standings either.

The season for NC State began well back in late March when they finally fired Herb Sendek, who had been collecting checks in Raleigh for more than a decade. NC State, looking at its great tradition of being ignored in the shadows cast by UNC and Duke, thought it could get any coach it wanted to replace Little Baldy. NCSU first targeted Rick Barnes and John Calipari. Both of them ignored the call. Then they tried to get Mike Montgomery back from the NBA. No go there. NC State thought it could pry away John Beilein from West Virginia. That didn’t work. Starting to get desperate, NC State contacted Ratface disciple Mike Brey. He laughed at them. April turned to May, and NC State still had no one interested in the job. The Wolfpack, realizing they aimed WAY too high, started putting out calls to just about every able body in the country. No name was too great or too insignificant. If you could spell the word “coach”, the Wolfpack wanted to talk to you (since most of their undergrads can’t). In fact, I actually turned the job down twice. I’m still holding out for the Wake Forest job which will probably be open next season.

Finally, two months later, the national search ended. Someone answered the call! The Wolfpack finally landed Sidney Lowe. Lowe, a former Wolfpack player (but not a graduate…it must be that extremely tough NCSU course load), had recently been helping Flip Saunders ruin the Detroit Pistons as an assistant coach. Before that, he bombed as coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves and then coached the Vancouver/Memphis Grizzlies to back to back 23-59 seasons. Alas, Sidney couldn’t keep up that blistering .280 winning percentage, and started his third season by going 0-8 before he bailed.

Now, as much as I made fun of Herb Sendek, and I made plenty of fun of him during his long time at NC State, he was, at the very least, a half decent coach. He made five NCAA tournaments. He produced some average players like kid punk Julius “Have Been Shot, Will Work For Food” Hodge. He somehow managed to con NC State to pay him for 10 seasons. But eventually, that 71-88 ACC record caught up to him. Those classy Wolfpack fans took one look at that number and ran him out of town, where he would be followed quickly by Sunglasses at Night Amato.

However, I assumed that when the slack jaw yokels who root for NC State ran Sendek out of town, it would be for a coach who…you know…could win. I mean, this program does have two national championships if anyone can remember back that far. They should have been able to get someone decent. They probably could have done much better than someone who possesses a career record of 79-228 (.257).

Anyway, Pack fans chase out Sendek, and bring in Sidney. Mean ‘Ol Herb is finally gone, so things are supposed to get better, right? Currently the Pack have a 13-10 record (3-7 in the ACC) while playing only the 90th toughest schedule in the nation and second easiest in the ACC. NC State, which made five straight tournaments under Sendek, including one just last season that produced a first round win, have regressed massively under savior Sidney Lowe.

Here’s the bizarre thing. Pack fans could not be more ecstatic over the results so far. They love this guy. This is a coach who has never come close to a winning record in the NBA, a coach who probably won’t come close to a winning ACC record, and they absolutely love him. What am I missing here? Sure the win over UNC was nice. But take a look at the overall picture here. Was Sendek perfect? Far from it. But the Wolfpack have proved that they can’t do any better. Yet the fans don’t seem to realize this. I guess that’s why they say “If you can’t go to college, go to State.”

As for this game…NC State is awful. Like Duke, they play seven guys. Unlike Duke, most of those seven can’t pass for even mediocre ACC players. You’ve never heard of most of these dudes. Engin Atsur, who appears to be in his eighth year of eligibility, is the only one you may recognize. He’s been playing with several lower body injuries and is nowhere near the talent that Sendek though he would be back in 1998 when he was a freshman. Gavin Grant is a poor man’s Hodge. He’s OK, and that might be stretching it. Brandon Costner seems to be a decent freshman, but his stats are inflated because he plays nearly every minute of every game. In fact, NC State possesses four players in the top eight of minutes played per game in the ACC. Not because those players are any good, but because they have no one else.

Yeah, I know I said I would never pick Maryland on the road again, even going as far as picking Wake to beat them. But c’mon, if they can’t beat State, then I probably shouldn’t put so much time and energy into writing posts about a team that would be 4-7. For many of you who stop by here, maybe that would be a good thing.

Maryland 71
NC State 64

Elsewhere in the ACC…

After correctly picking Maryland and skipping the other weekend conflicts due to illness, the record is slightly bumped to 36-15. And away we go.

TUESDAY
Georgia Tech at Florida State
It looks as if the hammer comes down on Paul Hewitt in Tallahassee. This is where the Bees lose their aspirations for a NCAA bid.
Pick: Florida State 87, Georgia Tech 73

Virginia Tech at North Carolina
You think ‘Ol Roy has been smarting from that previous loss to VPI? I know he has. That’s all he’s been talking about since it happened. I said at the beginning of the season that there was no way I was going to pick against Carolina at home, and despite an impressive Hokies performance this past weekend, I see no reason to change that policy here.
Pick: North Carolina 88, Virginia Tech 79

WEDNESDAY
Clemson at Wake Forest
The Tigers managed to save their season by winning at home against FSU last week. Here’s another game they HAVE to have with games against Duke, UNC and Maryland still looming.
Pick: Clemson 76, Wake Forest 60

Duke at Boston College
Five in row? I don’t see why not! KICK ‘EM WHEN THEY’RE DOWN! KICK ‘EM WHEN THEY’RE DOWN!
Pick: Boston College 74, Duke 66

The Predictor Top 25: 2/12/07

Despite still not feeling all that well, I’ll make a compromise. I’ll rank the teams, but no witty commentary. Sorry, just not up to it. Anyway, UCLA and UNC continue to switch spots, the Aggies get a long deserved promotion, and Duke remains out of the rankings for a second straight week. For all those who said I was crazy last Monday, I guess I don’t seem so crazy now, do I?

1. North Carolina (22-3), LW-2
2. UCLA (21-3), LW-1
3. Texas A&M (21-3), LW-4
4. Florida (23-2), LW-3
5. Wisconsin (24-2), LW-5
6. Ohio State (22-3), LW-6
7. Kansas (21-4), LW-7
8. Pittsburgh (22-3), LW-10
9. Nevada (22-2), LW-11
10. Washington State (21-4), LW-12
11. Oregon (20-5), LW-9
12. Memphis (21-3), LW-14
13. Marquette (21-5), LW-8
14. Boston College (18-6), LW-18
15. Air Force (21-4), LW-13
16. Oklahoma State (19-5), LW-16
17. Kentucky (18-6), LW-15
18. West Virginia (19-5), LW-24
19. Georgetown (18-5), LW-NR
20. Southern California (18-7), LW-17
21. Indiana (17-6), LW-NR
22. Arizona (17-7), LW-NR
23. Virginia Tech (17-7), LW-NR
24. UNLV (21-5), LW-NR
25. Butler (23-3), LW-20

Next 10: Alabama, Southern Illinois, Virginia, Kansas State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Texas, BYU, Vanderbilt, Xavier

Maryland Basketball: Blues Travelers

#16/16 Duke Blue Devils (18-6, 5-5 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (17-7, 3-6 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

Sorry for the lateness of the post. Due to the stomach virus from hell, I spent most of Saturday in the bathroom watching my small intestines leave my body through my mouth. That's the reason I've scraped the usual weekend ACC picks. I’m still very much under the weather, so excuse me if there are major spelling and grammatical errors, I just don’t have the energy to check. Hopefully I’ll be back in full force by Wednesday. However, I doubt that I'll be doing my weekly rankings tomorrow.

I’ve bashed the Terps enough the last two weeks. I can’t keep doing it. I’m getting tired of it. I need to talk about something else. Right on cue, here come the Dookies for their yearly visit.

As usual, at the beginning of the season, the name on the front of Duke’s jerseys blinded everyone in media from the realization that the names on the back of the jerseys were a bunch of nobodies. Greg Paulus this, Josh McRoberts that, Ratface this… That’s all we heard through the beginning of the season. Never mind the fact that Paulus almost single-handedly cost Dook their season last year. Never mind that offensively, McRoberts is one of the softest 6’10” forwards the ACC has ever seen. Never mind that Ratface has no idea how to use a bench and no idea how to condition players (I’ll get to that more in a moment). No, here came the Dookies…again. Top 10 team, top ACC school, top seed in the tournament come March.

Then something funny happened. On the way to another undefeated season (sense the sarcasm, baby!), Dook lost six games by the beginning of February, including five conference games. They are now on their first three-game losing streak since 1995-96 when Ratface faked a back injury so he wouldn’t have to coach an undermanned team and have a bunch of losses on his record.

Now Dook supporters will argue that some of the losses have been close. If the ball bounces differently in games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and Florida State, then Dook could be looking at a 21-3, 8-2 record right now. That’s nice and all for Dook fans and members of the sports media who slurp Dook whenever they can. But they conveniently leave out the fact that if the ball bounces differently in their home game against Indiana, and the clock runs properly in their travesty victory over Clemson, then Duke would be at 16-8, 4-6. Not as pretty. The facts are that Dook is 5-5 in conference play. The Blow Devils, according to their record and recent play, are an average ACC team right now. Nothing more, nothing less. You can bend the record however you want to, but it isn’t going to change the truth that Dook is, at best, the fifth or sixth best team in the ACC this season.

Not that it stops them from getting calls. For the last few years, the refs have been forced to stop calling the ridiculous “Duke Flop” that Scrotum-head Shane was known so well for. So they’ve been making it up to Ratface and his minions in other ways. Take a look at this video from their game against Kent State earlier in the season, which was sent to me by several different people. Let’s see if we can count the steps. I count five at least, but you could probably go as high as seven. Not surprisingly, no traveling was called on the play (On a side note...how great is Youtube? It is, by far, the best website out there. I spend way too much time on there). The sad thing is, and the embarrassing thing for ACC refs is, McRoberts has become very, very good at traveling almost every time he tries to attack the hoop from 10 feet out because he knows he won't be called for it. He has terrible footwork inside, and if it was ever called consistently, his scoring numbers would be cut in half. He does this little shuffle at least four or five times a game. This missed call was just an example of some of the terrible officiating that continues to help Dook. Apparently using a pivot foot is something Ratface doesn’t coach. With help of the ACC officials, he’ll never have to. And just in case he needs more help, they’re always mysterious clock officials that will try to convince you that it only takes .6 seconds for an opposing player to steal the ball and hit a three. Which I’m sure is pretty much physically impossible.

Another thing that Ratface doesn’t know how to do is use his bench. Last year, while everyone went all Dennis Green and crowned Duke before March began, I said time and time again that Duke’s downfall would be their freshman point guard and lack of depth. To be honest, I was kind of wrong. Dook doesn’t have a lack of depth. They have good players on their bench. Ratface just refuses to use them. Marty Pocius is supposed to be a pretty good guard. I’m not even sure he’s still with the team. I can't remember the last time I saw him. Are you sure that Jon Scheyer doesn't have Eurotrash locked in his trunk? Lance Thomas will play well for 5 to 10 minutes, and then we’ll never seem him after the start of the second half. Ratface, as usual, is back to playing seven guys when his team could easily go nine deep. The only bench players we see with some regularity are David McClure and Requisite Duke White Stiff Brian Zoubek, who I’m sure is really a space captain from Star Trek.

This is why Dook lost last season. When you play Backne and company for 35 minutes a game, all season long, and you expect him in March to shoot as well as he did in the middle of the ACC season, then you’re crazy. That’s why Backne’s three point percentage took a significant dip in March. That’s why Dook continues to lose games in the second half. Take a look at the recent UNC game for minute. Dook dominated that game for the first 30 minutes. Then they couldn’t hit a shot because they were all dead tired while Roy Williams kept bringing fresh bodies off his bench. The same thing happened in losses to Virginia Tech and Virginia. Dook built double-digit first half leads, but couldn’t put the game away because all their jump shooters had dead legs by the second half’s midway point. And we all know Dook has never been a good enough inside team (at least without Scrotum-head and his flops) to compensate for their lack of outside shooting.

The lack of conditioning is also something that continues to plague Dook. I had trouble proving this until this year. For whatever reason, Ratface was asked to coach the USA basketball team this past offseason (obviously this decision was not made by popular vote). Along with the embarrassing choke job that Ratface performed, he wore all those NBA players out too. LeBron James has seen his numbers drop and he’s been bothered by various leg injuries. Chris Paul missed a good chunk of the season to ankle injuries. Antawn Jamison was bothered by a sprained knee all season, and it finally sidelined him last month. Kirk Hinrich has virtually disappeared from the Bulls scoring sheet as all his numbers, and playing time, have decreased. Dwyane Wade has missed several games this season and habitually, for the first time in his career, is complaining about fatigue. Brad Miller has missed several weeks due to lower body problems and all his numbers, like Hinrich’s, are much lower than last season’s. Even Dwight Howard, who appeared to be headed to a break out season, has seen his numbers drop since New Year’s because of fatigue factors. So coupled with curious selections the roster (Scrotum-head over Gilbert Arenas…are you on crack?), Ratface has managed to sink the prospects for several NBA teams this year by not keeping his players in shape. Maybe it was a good thing for the Wizards that Arenas wasn’t selected to the team.

Back to the unpaid ranks and to the game at hand. Dook can be a good team at times. Their defense is arguably the best in the conference. However, their offense is very inconsistent, and at times, downright dreadful. They’ll keep their opponents from scoring a lot of points and they’ll always be in the game. On the other hand, they just don’t seem to be able to score enough points at the end to win games. Hence, all the close losses, which has become a trend and not a fluke (as Dook supporters would have you believe). Maryland always gets up for the Devils. But seeing as Dook is on a three game losing streak, and a four gamer seems very unlikely, the Terps may want to ask the Wizards to borrow Gilbert and his 84 or 85 points. Otherwise, with the way their offense has been running lately, and their penchant for turnovers, they don’t stand a chance.

75 points is usually the magic number for Duke. If they can reach that number, they’re going to win. But me picking Duke? There’s a better chance of an astronaut driving across country in a diaper than that happening. Wait…what did you say????

Maryland 75
Duke 74

Maryland Basketball: Gary Hears A Hoo

Virginia Cavaliers (15-6, 7-2 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (17-6, 3-5 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

So what did we learn from the first game against Virginia? Anything? The final score wasn’t pretty. The box score wasn’t pretty. The UVA fans, as usual, weren’t pretty. Hopefully something will change tonight.

Even though the game is still freshly burned into the back of skull, I felt the need to check out the stats just to make sure I wasn’t imagining things. Sean Singletary had a good night. But that is to be expected. 25 points on 5 for 12 shooting and seven assists is about par for the course with him. That wasn’t what bothered me. How about J.R. Reynolds scoring 17 with 7 boards. Jason Cain threw in another 13 points and a career-high, by far, 16 rebounds. Jamil Tucker came off the bench for a career high 12 points. And last, but not least, Mamadi Diane scored a career high 26 points on 9 of 16 shooting. You see where I’m going with this? When you give up career highs to three different players in the same game, things aren’t going to turn out well. I’m not sure what’s more disturbing from this first game. Virginia shot nearly 45% from the field. They out rebounded the Terps by 13, including an almost preposterous 2 to 1 margin on the offensive glass. The Hoos shot a whopping 49 FREE THROWS because they weren’t afraid to drive to the hoop. And it’s worth repeating…Jason Cain, who is a complete waste of space, got 16 rebounds. That’s incredibly embarrassing.

So despite Maryland having all five starters put up double-figures, Maryland lost handedly. And Virginia still has room to improve on that performance. Reynolds usually does better than 17 and 7 against Maryland. Virginia committed 20 turnovers. And the bench, other than Tucker, didn’t contribute much. So it could be much worse tonight if Maryland shows up with the defense they did last month.

On the other hand, Virginia, more so than any team in the league, traditionally plays radically worse on the road than it does at home. They are on a six game winning streak, which is way too many for a team that has several obvious flaws like they do. They have a game with another rival, Virginia Tech, on the horizon. In other words, they are due for a stinker.

Maryland’s defense, which never seems to make it on to the overhead compartments when they travel, usually shows up at home. It’s hard to remember that considering Maryland has had exactly one home game the past 23 days (Yes, that’s right…thank you ACC scheduling wizards. Next year, would it be alright if we borrow one of Duke’s 13 ACC home games? Much obliged). But usually Maryland’s defense is 10 to 15 points better at home.

However, I don’t see this one going Maryland’s way. The Terps will probably focus on Singletary way too much, as usual. He’ll still score 20 to 25 points and the rest of Virginia will go off as well. Plus, you know Maryland is already looking ahead to you know who this Sunday. The Terps remind me a lot of the mid 90’s Redskins. For awhile, brain surgeon Norv Turner had a superb record against the Girls, but was something like 0-12 in the weeks before and after Dallas games. While the Terps always give the Dookies fits, their record before and after those games is not pretty to look at. Maryland will play better against Virginia tonight than they did in Charlottesville, but not better enough to grab a needed home win.

Virginia 87
Maryland 81

Elsewhere around the ACC…

I was only 3-3 last week, so the record is a modest 30-15.

TUESDAY
NC State at Georgia Tech
I said at the beginning of the season that NC State would be lucky to win more than three conference games. Despite two shocking wins and a 3-5 record, I still believe that. So here begins an eight game losing streak for the Wolfpack.
Pick: Georgia Tech 73, NC State 66

WEDNESDAY
Boston College at Miami
Doesn’t this seem like the fourth time these teams have played this season? Do they just keep traveling back and forth between Coral Gables and Chestnut Hill? This game will much closer than expected, as BC is due for a let down after their win over Virginia Tech and game coming up against FSU and Duke.
Pick: Boston College 75, Miami 70

Florida State at Clemson
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but here is a huge game for both teams and the rest of the ACC. Clemson continues to tank, while Florida State comes off two impressive victories. Clemson has had a week to stew over their skid and I can only assume that old-school FSU will show up on the road and lay an egg.
Pick: Clemson 83, Florida State 72

North Carolina at Duke
Now things start to get real interesting for the Dookies. At 5-4, and after what seemingly has been two months of home games, the Blow Devils have to take their show on the road after this game in four of their final six. None of the four road games are really winnable (Maryland, Boston College, Clemson and UNC) and the home games against Maryland (as always, expect the Terps to give them problems) and Georgia Tech (a team they’ve already lost to) aren’t walks in the park. The Dookies could be looking at five more losses by the end of the season. 7-9 should not get you into the tournament. It will be interesting to see what the committee does if that happens. Knowing the NCAA, that will probably be enough to get Duke a protected #2 seed in the tournament.
Pick: North Carolina 88, Duke 71

The Predictor Top 25: 2/05/07

As always, there’s some shaking up to do in the Top 25. UCLA and UNC continue to flip flop at the top and the bottom half of the list always seems to be in turmoil. We’ll try to sort everything out as usual.

1. UCLA (20-2), LW-2: Took care of business at home against Oregon, then really took care of business against Oregon State (by a score of 82-35)
2. North Carolina (20-3), LW-1: There’s really no other way to say it. That loss to NC State was terrible.
3. Florida (21-2), LW-3: The Gators continue to fool around with less talented teams. They were down double-digits on their home court to Vandy. They’re lucky the SEC isn’t very good right now.
4. Texas A&M (19-3), LW-5: The best win of the week came from the Aggies as they went to Lawrence and took care of Kansas. However, they are right back at it today when they host Texas. Who came up with that schedule?
5. Wisconsin (22-2): LW-4: They continue to be Top 10 frauds, as the loss to Indiana proved last week. But there is no one else to put here.
6. Ohio State (20-3): LW-6: The Buckeyes had one of their better weeks so far as they blew out Purdue and Michigan State. Can’t jump Wisconsin because they already lost to them.
7. Kansas (19-4): LW-7: Because of the massive amount of losing done by the teams behind them, I can’t punish the Jayhawks for losing a double-digit lead at home. In their defense, it was to the number 4 team in this poll.
8. Marquette (20-4), LW-10: In a week full of upsets, the Eagles had the good fortune of only playing one game last week. And it was against Providence. Their move up to eighth is only temporary I’m afraid.
9. Oregon (19-4), LW-8: Be kind to your feathered friends. A two game road swing through Southern California resulted in two predictable losses. Still, 19-4 in the Pac-10 is nothing to sneeze about.
10. Pittsburgh (20-3), LW-11: Like Marquette, Pittsburgh benefits from playing only one easy game this week while other teams fall all around them. Despite the better record, the Panthers will be hard pressed to jump Marquette, because of a home loss to the Eagles.
11. Nevada (21-2), LW-13: Yes, I noticed the near loss at home to Hawaii. The Wolf Pack caught a few breaks. They still won two games this week, which is more than I can say about a lot of other teams.
12. Washington State (19-4), LW-14: Vintage WSU was back this week. And by vintage I mean the WSU that can’t score. 48 points in a win? 12 points scored in a half? Luckily they were playing Herb Sendek. 48 points isn’t going to beat any other Pac-10 team
13. Air Force (20-3), LW-15: Stopped their habit of bad losses by pounding Wyoming by more than 40. This will be an interesting week for the Falcons as they visit San Diego State and New Mexico’s infamous Pit.
14. Memphis (19-3), LW-16: Will anyone in Conference USA challenge these guys? UTEP? UAB? Anybody??? A trip to Spokane and Gonzaga will tell us more about Tigers in two weeks
15. Kentucky (17-5), LW-20: Very quietly, Kentucky continues to rack up road wins in the SEC. Another solid one this past week at Arkansas.
16. Oklahoma State (18-4), LW-9: A loss to Colorado? What’s that about? As bad as UNC’s loss to NC State was, OSU’s loss to the Buffs was even worse.
17. Southern California (18-6), LW-19: Looked very good last week against the Oregon schools and managed to hold on to both games.
18. Boston College (16-6), LW-NR: Time to start giving props to BC. I thought they would implode after losing Sean Williams. Jared Dudley has stepped up his play and led the Eagles to the top of the ACC
19. Virginia (15-6), LW-NR: Right behind them are the Virginia Cavaliers. A must win against Duke, to prove they belonged, followed by a whipping of Miami to show that they weren’t going to drop a let down game gets them into the Top 25.
20. Butler (22-2), LW-21: Hey, at least they’re moving up. I’m just not impressed by any team from the Horizon League
21. Alabama (17-5): LW-25: With two wins against LSU and South Carolina, the Tide stopped their slide. For the time being.
22. Kansas State (17-6), LW-NR: What’s a Top 25 without Bob Huggins? Kansas State is finally showing signs of life and is climbing high in the rough Big XII. A signature win over Texas helps them get in here.
23. Texas (16-6), LW-17: Despite the close loss to KSU, Texas (and by Texas I mean Kevin Durant) had a solid win over Texas Tech.
24. West Virginia (18-4), LW-NR: I know they haven’t been playing all that well, and they probably won’t be here next week. But 18-4 in a power conference is still pretty good.
25. Florida State (17-6), LW-NR: The thumping delivered to Maryland was almost as impressive as the win at Cameron and the Dookies, who are conspicuously absent from the Top 25 this week.

Next 10: Indiana, Southern Illinois, Duke, Arizona, VCU, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Clemson, Akron