The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/19/07

The Top 5 would have been shaken up a bit if nearly every team in it or near it didn’t lose this past week. UNC and UCLA continue to go in and out of the top spot again. Worst loss of the week? Tie between Virginia Tech getting embarrassed in Raleigh, Pittsburgh getting destroyed on its home floor by Louisville and USC handing Little Herby his first Pac-10 win at Arizona State. Making it equally hard to get the Top 25 together this week is the fact that many teams lost two games: Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Boston College, Arizona, Oregon and Indiana.

1. UCLA (23-3), LW-2: Managed to get through their desert run with no problems. Their win in Tucson goes a long way winning the wild Pac-10
2. North Carolina (23-4), LW-1: Some teams you know how to beat. Other teams have your number. Virginia Tech has the Heels number right now.
3. Texas A&M (22-4), LW-3: A loss on a buzzer beater to a desperate Texas Tech team isn’t cause for concern or a reason to drop them this week.
4. Wisconsin (26-2), LW-5: Still not impressed by Wisconsin (or the Big Ten for that matter). Only one of their last five games came against a team with a winning record. Two against Michigan State and one at Ohio State should give us a real look at the Badgers.
5. Florida (24-3), LW-4: One near loss to Alabama and a blow out loss to Vanderbilt should drop them further down. I’m being real generous here.
6. Ohio State (24-3), LW-6: Common sense rule in effect. If OSU has already lost to both Florida and Wisconsin, and they both have better or identical records, why in the world should the Buckeyes be ranked over them? You can ponder that while OSU is the top-ranked team this week in both polls.
7. Kansas (23-4), LW-7: The Jayhawks avoided the upset bug while running through the weak sisters of the Big XII North. Big game in the Little Apple and KSU tonight.
8. Nevada (24-2), LW-9: Bracket Buster domination of Northern Iowa gives me a little bit of confidence that the Wolf Pack can actually make a run in March.
9. Washington State (22-4), LW-10: Only one game for the Cougars as they managed to trip up in-state rival U-Dub in a very close game. Do they have enough offense to win in the coming weeks?
10. Memphis (23-3), LW-12: Impressive win in Spokane this past week. I’ve kept the undeserving Tigers out of the Top 10 as long as possible.
11. Air Force (23-4), LW-15: Am I over ranking them? Probably. I just love gritty, hard-nosed teams from the Mountain West.
12. Pittsburgh (23-4), LW-8: Bad, bad loss to Lousiville. That is the second time they’ve been blown out at home. Then they followed that up with a near loss to Washington.
13. Georgetown (20-5), LW-19: The loss to Pittsburgh earlier make it tough for me to let they Hoyas jump Pitt. But two nice wins this week anyway.
14. Oregon (20-7), LW-11: Yes, after two losses, they should probably be much lower. Still, some of their great wins before the last two weeks can’t be ignored completely. And they play in the cannibalistic Pac-10.
15. Southern Illinois (23-5), LW-NR: This could be the best team to come out of the Missouri Valley since those late 90’s Creighton teams.
16. Marquette (21-7), LW-12: Three straight losses in the Big East, two of them at home, isn’t going to help them a lot.
17. Louisville (19-8), LW-NR: Meanwhile, Louisville goes on the road to knock off both Pitt and Marquette. However, Marquette did beat them earlier in the season, and their record is better than the Cardinals. So they get the ranking right above them.
18. Texas (19-7), LW-NR: Let’s not forget the Longhorns. Does anybody want to face Kevin Durant in a single-elimination tournament? This could be the toughest team to figure out in the NCAA’s.
19. Virginia (18-7), LW-NR: Ignoring the overall record for a minute, it is impossible to look past Virginia’s 9-3 conference record in the country’s toughest conference.
20. Duke (20-7), LW-NR: After two weeks without Duke, federal law told me I had to put the Dookies back in this week. I feel 20th may still be way too high.
21. Boston College (18-8), LW-14: The losses this past week aren’t going to hurt BC in the long run. Still, losing consecutive home games to Duke and UNC was an opportunity missed by the Eagles to put BC basketball on the map in New England.
22. Vanderbilt (18-8), LW-NR: Kevin Stallings, who was already one of my favorite under-the-radar coaches, went to the top of the list when he punked Joakim Noah this weekend.
23. Notre Dame (20-6), LW-NR: How does a 20-6 Big East team receive no votes in both the AP and ESPN poll?
24. Southern Cal (19-8), LW-20: Awful loss to ASU is at least balanced out by a solid win against Arizona on the road.
25. Alabama (19-7), LW-NR: Hey, the Tide keep hanging around. Win over Kentucky may have saved their season this past week.

Next 10: West Virginia, BYU, Butler, Arizona, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Kansas State, Kentucky

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until before Selection Sunday. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (7): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia
Big 10 (4): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac 10 (6): Arizona, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State
SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Florida State and Georgia Tech are out in the ACC jumble. Clemson and Maryland cannot afford to finish below .500 in conference play. Villanova is on the borderline in the Big East, and Louisville must finish 10-6 in conference play. The Big 10 down, but Michigan State gets the last at large bid based on RPI (31). Syracuse (RPI 63) and Illinois are on the outside looking in right now. The Big 12 is pretty much cut and dry unless Texas Tech makes a run or Oklahoma State continues their collapse. Stanford gets into the tourney right now based on the overall strength of the conference. The SEC is a mess. Alabama has to get in, despite being at 6-6 right now in the SEC, because there is no way that an entire division is left out of the Big Dance. I’m not sold on Tennessee getting in despite their RPI. Georgia’s numbers look good on paper, but they’ve beaten no decent SEC teams yet. Out for now.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10: Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West: Air Force, BYU, UNLV

Notes: Xavier, while not technically in first, should come out of the A10. Regardless, the A10 is a one bid league. Same with Conference USA if Memphis wins the conference tournament. If they lose, that’s one less bid for the big boys. The Mountain West has a solid three bids, and possibly four if SDSU gets its act together soon.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Akron
Missouri Valley: Bradley, Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Sun Belt: South Alabama
West Coast: Santa Clara
Western Athletic: Nevada, New Mexico State

Notes: The Colonial, based on George Mason last year, may get two teams. If they do, the second team would be Old Dominion. Either way, that conference tournament is going to be intense. Butler, like Xavier, is not technically in first but should come out on top in the Horizon at the end. The MAC has Akron, and possibly Kent State if they finish strong. The Missouri Valley right now should get four, although Bradley is on very shaky ground. The Sun Belt, after years of solid tournament teams, is really, really down this season. Almost bad enough to send them to the small conference category. Gonzaga shouldn’t get in from the WCC unless they win their conference tournament. They can’t possibly be the favorite this season. The WAC benefits from the lack of Gonzaga by getting a solid NMSU in at the time being. And don’t be surprised if Utah State sneaks back into the picture.

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tenn. State
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Pennsylvania
MAAC: Marist
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast: Central Conn. State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwestern: Jackson State

Notes: Of these teams, only Winthrop is a potential at large squad. Their RPI (because of their conference) is bad, but their record and some of their victories are going to help. Davidson could possibly make it if they win out and lose to Appalachian State in the finals of the Southern tournament. Every other conference will get one, and only one, bid…which ever team makes it out of the respective tournaments.