The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/26/07

For the first time all season, my number one team remains the same. The rest of the Top 10, and for that matter, the Top 25 gets a shake up. UNC falls. Florida falls. Wisconsin and Pitt, like the frauds they are, fall further. And finally, at long last, that team makes an appearance in the Top 25.

1. UCLA (25-3), LW-1: The Bruins finally have a week when they take care of business without screwing around with inferior opponents.
2. Texas A&M (24-4), LW-3: Despite OK State completing their massive tank job, the Aggies 20-point dominating win in Stillwater was very impressive. That’s never an easy place to win.
3. Ohio State (26-3), LW-6: Still unsure about putting the Buckeyes ahead of Florida, but they finally managed to beat a decent team so their record doesn’t look too inflated.
4. Kansas (25-4), LW-7: Very quietly, the Jayhawks have won 9 of their last 10 games by an average of 27 points. Just let that number sink in. 27-point margin of victory, on average, during the past month. Not bad at all.
5. North Carolina (24-5), LW-2: UNC is more talented than every team in the country and is stacked with several NBA picks. But at times, they play with no energy or cohesiveness. Sound familiar? We were saying the same things about UConn last February. Look out Chapel Hill.
6. Florida (25-4), LW-3: The problem with UNC is the same problem that the Gators have right now. No energy, too much apathy. Nice 4-point, 2-rebound effort from Shemale Joakim Noah against a Glen Davis-less LSU team.
7. Nevada (26-2), LW-8: Hey, the Wolf Pack have the NCAA’s best record. That’s got to count for something.
8. Memphis (25-3), LW-10: I’m beginning to think that if I got five coordinated friends together, I too could go undefeated through Conference USA right now.
9. Georgetown (22-5), LW-13: Forget being the hottest team on the East Coast. This is the hottest team in the nation. Suffocating defense with timely offense is much better than Pitt’s non-existent offensive attack.
10. Washington State (23-5), LW-9: Tough, but close loss at Oregon not too bad in the scheme of things. They are playing Wisconsin-style basketball better than Wisconsin is. And their doing it in a much better conference.
11. Wisconsin (26-4), LW-4: It’s not that the Badgers lost two games this week (although that doesn’t help their cause any). It’s that they haven’t beaten a good team since their early January win over Ohio State. In fact, until this week, they hadn’t even played a good team since then. The Big 10 is awful this season.
12. Oregon (22-7), LW-14: This is still a very good team that hit a rough patch the past couple of weeks. They play in one of the most competitive conferences in the country this season, so cut them a break. Their two wins over the Washington schools were solid.
13. Texas (21-7), LW-19: Two blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma are good enough to move the Horns up six spots. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, no top seed will want to face this team in a single-elimination tournament. The record is not indicative of how good this team is and will be in March.
14. Southern Illinois (25-5), LW-15: I have a real problem moving this Wisconsin wannabe up the rankings much higher than this. Their RPI of five seems wrong. Can we have that thing checked for mathematical errors please?
15. Pittsburgh (24-5), LW-12: I don’t know what’s worse…the loss to Georgetown or the narrow three-point win against dreadful Seton Hall? Either way, not a good week for the Panthers.
16. Notre Dame (22-6), LW-23: Beat down of desperate DePaul was good, but their home win against Marquette was even better.
17. Louisville (21-8), LW-17: Joining Georgetown in the hot teams column are the Cardinals. I had them too high in the last poll…17th feels just about right.
18. Maryland (22-7), LW-NR: As Gary Williams asked, if Maryland beat Duke, and has the exact same record as Duke, why aren’t they ahead of them in the polls? Good question, and following the win over UNC, I’m hard-pressed to answer that question.
19. Duke (22-7), LW-20: While Maryland was busy beating UNC and FSU, Duke was busy playing a tough non-conference game against St. John’s. Way to reach there, Ratface.
20. Southern Cal (21-8), LW-24: I’m just shocked USC got through a week when they didn’t lose to a inferior team. For their troubles, they get a boost of four ranking spots.
21. Marquette (22-8), LW-16: Their Oklahoma State death spiral started a little later than the Cowboys, but it’s still starting to cripple this team in the rankings and in the committee’s seeding process.
22. Air Force (23-6), LW-11: I over-rated them last week and I will not make the same mistake this week. I’m starting to doubt whether or not this is even the second best team in the Mountain West.
23. Virginia Tech (20-8), LW-NR: This week the good Virginia Tech showed up. Which means, more than likely, the bad Virginia Tech will make at least one appearance this week.
24. Michigan State (21-8), LW-NR: This is the one team I really do like from the Big 10. The Spartans took care of business at home against Wisconsin and Indiana, and can really make a jump in the rankings if they beat the Badgers against this week.
25. Virginia (19-8), LW-19: Loss to Miami has to be punished with a drop in the rankings. And yes UVA fans, I know you’ve beaten both Maryland and Duke. But neither of them lost to Appalachian State and Utah.

Next 10: Vanderbilt, Boston College, Arizona, UNLV, BYU, Kansas State, Butler, Tennessee, Xavier, Illinois

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until before Selection Sunday. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (7): Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10 (5): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Pac 10 (6): Arizona, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State
SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Florida State and Clemson are most certainly out. Syracuse jumps in and replaces Villanova. DePaul is the important team in the Big East. They have too many losses (12) to make the tournament but still have a decent conference record. Any team that finishes below them in the conference standings is in jeopardy. Nova is one of those teams. Illinois gets a spot for now. Texas Tech replaces free-falling Oklahoma State. The Pac-10 and SEC hold tight for now. Alabama is still very much on the borderline, and if Ole Miss hadn’t choked at South Carolina this past weekend, they probably would have replaced the Tide.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10: Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West: Air Force, BYU, UNLV

Notes: San Diego State is finishing strong. The SOS is good but the RPI is subpar. However, they are the hottest team in the Mountain West and may just run through the conference tournament anyway. They would be the next team in if they have a very strong showing the rest of the season. The other three teams, barring first round MWC losses, are basically locks. I would like to see UMass join the discussion, but their RPI and SOS are horrible. They need to win the A-10 tournament.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Toledo
Missouri Valley: Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Sun Belt: South Alabama
West Coast: Santa Clara
Western Athletic: Nevada

Notes: New Mexico State’s home loss to Fresno State is the Colonial’s gain. Old Dominion, fresh off a 10-game win streak to close the season, sneaks into the tournament. Bradley joins NMSU in the rejected column. Toledo replaces Akron for the MAC because of better conference record.

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tenn. State
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Pennsylvania
MAAC: Marist
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwestern: Mississippi Valley State