Maryland Basketball: Adjusted For Common Sense

Florida State Seminoles (17-10, 5-8 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (20-7, 6-6 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

Most Maryland fans left the team for dead after an embarrassing non-showing in Tallahassee. The Terps kept the game close for the first 10 minutes, before falling 96-79 in their second straight poor road performance. Al Thornton, not surprisingly, had 27 points and eight rebounds and torched the Terps on both ends like the kid wearing the black jersey in that wickedly cool new Nike shoe commercial. That wasn’t the problem. Maryland allowed 24 points to Jason Rich, 16 points to Toney Douglass and 15 points to Isaiah Swann, including two four-point plays. The Seminoles shot 61.7% from the floor, 47% from three land and 87.5% from the foul line. They out rebounded Maryland by 10. They blocked more shots, stole more passes and created fewer turnovers. The 17-point beating was pretty generous considering the way that Maryland and FSU played. The loss sunk the Terps to 2-5 in the conference and elevated the Seminoles to 4-4. Florida State would soon be 5-4 after beating Duke in Durham and appeared headed to an easy tournament bid.

As Florida State makes their trip to College Park, it’s not hard to determine where the two teams had their fortunes change. For the Seminoles, it came late in the game following their win against the Devils. Late in their loss against Clemson, the Seminoles lost key role player Douglass to an injury, and their offense hasn’t seemed to be the same since. After averaging 81.7 points a game in the seven games before Douglass’ injury. Those included 22-point efforts by Douglass against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, his aforementioned 16-point game against the Terps and two 15-point games against Duke and Wake.

Since his injury, FSU is averaging 63 points a game. I mentioned last week how Clemson’s productivity had dropped 14 points since the midway point in their ACC schedule. FSU’s has dropped 18 points. That’s why they’ve lost their last four games and come limping into College Park with a 5-8 ACC record and would be decisively out of the Big Dance if the season ended today. The good news for FSU is if they do beat Maryland, then they finish their season against NC State and Miami, which should be two more wins to get them back to 8-8. But they must win here or they have no chance unless they run the tables in the ACC tourney.

For Maryland, the season turned somewhere during their 29-4 run over the Dookies two Sunday’s ago. It was as if Maryland decided, as a team that “Hey, you know what? Maybe we should try playing hard for more than 10 minutes a game, stop turning the ball over 20 times and not covering the perimeter and see if that helps us get more wins.” And you know something, that unusual strategy has worked the last three games.

The Terps now stand at 20 wins. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, no ACC team with 20 wins has ever been left out. That’s a great sign, but you can bet that streak will end this season. Maryland, along with Clemson and Georgia Tech, will all be at the 20 win plateau by the end of the ACC tournament. One of those three teams isn’t going. And if FSU makes a rally, they still may not go either. More importantly for Maryland is the RPI, which currently stands at a magnificent 21.

Even more important, by my standards, is Maryland’s ranking when it comes to adjusted scoring margin. The ASM takes into account how many points you score, how many you allow, and compares the numbers to the opponents you’ve played adjusted slightly to give road and neutral wins greater importance. The scale theoretically ranges from infinity to negative infinity, but anything above 10 is a great score. While the committee doesn’t look at the ASM carefully, I think it may be the most scientific way to rank the teams.

Currently, the top three teams in the polls are Wisconsin, Ohio State and Florida. We all know the Big 10 is down, so while the Badgers and Buckeyes beat down on patsies like Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan and Northwestern, the other teams in the Top 10 had real tests (Not surprisingly, in Wisconsin’s first test in a month, they got drubbed last night at Michigan State). So the polls, as we all know, are severely overrated and a terrible way to judge the best teams in the country. The RPI is better, but it still has flaws. Southern Illinois, for example, plays in the inflated Missouri Valley. SIU is rated 5th in RPI. You can’t honestly tell me that SIU is the 5th best team in America, can you? How did they get that high you ask? Well, teams like Wichita State and Northern Iowa go out and play incredibly hard schedules, win a few games against good teams from power conferences, then settle back to their conference schedule. SIU, who didn’t schedule anyone remotely tough, is able to beat a tired and worn down WSU and NIU team and piggy back on their previous wins. Basically, SIU allowed the rest of the conference to play hard schedules, then beats those teams, and gets credit in the RPI ranking for their schedule and their opponents' schedule.

The adjusted scoring margin does not take schedule strength directly into account (but does, as I said before, take into account home and road games). It takes into account the points you score/allow and the points your opponents score/allow. So eventually, your opponents winning margin does come into play. But in order for the ASM to be positively effected, you have to actually beat those opponents. What your conference brethren do will only help your ASM slightly.

Maryland’s offensive ASM is 12.7, which is sixth best in the country. In other words, Maryland scores 12.7 points more a game than the average of what all their opponents have scored per game. Add in the above average defensive ASM of 2.9 (which means Maryland allows 3 points fewer a game than what their opponents, on average have given up), and Maryland’s total ASM score is 15.6. That ranks Maryland 11th in the nation in ASM. The top three teams? North Carolina (24.2), Florida (22.3) and Texas A&M (20.8)…three teams that look destined to play in the Final Four this season. Maryland is sandwiched between Georgetown (ranked 10th with 15.7) and Notre Dame (ranked 12th with 15.2). That’s a bit more accurate than any AP or RPI poll

Basically the ASM is a common sense ranking. If a team scores a lot more than its opponents, and gives up a lot less, they should be ranked higher. Teams like Wisconsin or Pittsburgh can’t score and don’t beat teams by a lot. Sure they win, but they don’t do it by much. They should be ranked lower than teams that win convincingly. So while the committee may not notice ASM much, it bodes well for Maryland in the long run. It shows that Maryland, over the course of the entire season, has played well and is able to beat its opponents by a comfortable margin. When they win.

So can Maryland make up a 17 point deficit? Without Toney Douglass, that’s 16 to 18 points off the board right there considering what happened the last time the two teams played and the effect Douglass has had on FSU’s offense since. Home court is always a five to six point swing. The confidence factor is decisively in Maryland’s favor. So why not? Well, this game has all the makings of a classic trap. Maryland comes off a big road win, has UNC and Duke waiting in the wings in the upcoming week, and gets a home game against a desperate team. Reeks of a close game. Reeks of a game that Maryland is going to need every easy inside basket they can get. Let’s get James Gist involved early and often, and do whatever it takes to get the W.

Maryland 82
Florida State 77

Elsewhere in the ACC…

A 4-2 week makes me 41-21.

WEDNESDAY
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
Remarkably, many still have Georgia Tech in the tournament. I’m not sure why, but it may have something to do with expectations of a win in this game. Paul Hewitt’s curious substitution patterns shouldn’t stand in the way here.
Pick: Georgia Tech 78, Wake Forest 62

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Um…you got me. Anybody have an idea for this one? It all depends on which Boston College and Virginia Tech teams show up. When picking between two completely unpredictable teams, it’s always a safe bet to pick the home side.
Virginia Tech 80, Boston College 73

Virginia at Miami
After tough games against Longwood and Florida State, UVA continues it’s grueling schedule with a trip down to the ACC’s South Pole. Assuming J.R. Reynolds doesn’t get arrested for possession (which he’s narrowly escaped before), the Hoos should come back home with another win and possibly first place in the conference.
Pick: Virginia 84, Miami 65

NC State at North Carolina
Unless NC State shoots 100% from beyond the arc in the second half again, they don’t stand a chance. However, the Wolfpack did exceed that three ACC win total that I set for them at the beginning of the season. I guess that’s reason to celebrate? Just remember Pack fans, under Herby, you guys made the last five tournaments. Maybe Sir Sidney isn’t all he’s cracked up to be.
Pick: North Carolina 93, NC State 71

THURSDAY
Duke at Clemson
Duke is back baby! That terrific home win over Georgia Tech proves it! All the haters can stuff it, the Dookies are going to make a run now. Please…wake me up when Duke is bounced in the second round next month.
Pick: Clemson 73, Duke 70