2007 NCAA Tournament: Final Four

I think it’s worth visiting my locked bracket again just to see how close to perfect it is. For clarification, I know that I’m in pools with some of you people who read this monstrosity, and the brackets I submitted for some of those are a bit different (like the ones on Facebook and Yahoo, where I have A&M making the finals instead of just the semifinals...it's called "hedging your bets"). However, the bracket done on ESPN was created to reflect my picks for this page and is the one I’ve been using since day one of the tournament.

As you can see, I wasn’t off by much. I had UNLV and Tennessee in the Sweet 16. I had Oregon making the Elite Eight. Three of my final four teams are where they’re supposed to be. I got the VCU upset over Duke. I had Wisconsin getting bounced in the second round. I made a few mistakes here and there, but overall, it’s been a pretty good tournament so far.

Now, in the individual picks I went 2-0 again in the regional finals. The overall record is now 47-13 for this tournament. I haven’t made an incorrect pick since Memphis beat A&M last Thursday. I would love to get to that 50-win plateau, so I’d have to go 3-0 the rest of the way. Let’s see…

FINAL FOUR
Georgia Dome
Atlanta, GA



Georgetown Hoyas (30-6) vs.
Ohio State Buckeyes (34-3)
So if you are like me, I’m sure you are already sick of hearing about Greg Oden and Roy Hibbert inside. We all get it. They’re very tall. As usual, ESPN and the other worthless sports outfits chose to be lazy and focus on the obvious matchup. They fail to realize that this game will probably come down to guard play.

I’ll humor everyone first. Let’s start by talking about the centers. Oden is much more athletic, more natural and more dominant on each end of the floor. If he wants to play hard, and if OSU makes a real effort to get him the ball, Hibbert won’t stop him. No chance. Oden is a bigger, stronger version of Tyler Hansbrough. And Hibbert had all kinds of trouble stopping him in the regional final. The odds are pretty good that Hibbert will have two fouls by the 10 minute mark of the first half or three by halftime. So that takes care of that analysis.


Quick, someone make another joke about how old Greg Oden looks. It's not like that joke's played out or anything.

The guard play is important because Georgetown could really struggle to guard both Mike Conley and Ron Lewis. If Georgetown pays extra attention to the inside game, and I figure they will, the guards for Ohio State should have the same open looks that the guards from UNC did. I hope that the Buckeye guards do a better job of knocking them down. If their season shooting average holds up, the Hoyas could be a ton of trouble.

Georgetown is going to need a big day from DaJuan Summers. This is a player that I’ve really started to like over the last month. He’s got the size of a power forward with the agility of a shooting guard. We can sit here and wax ecstatic about Hibbert and Jeff Green, but I’m starting to think that Summers and his versatility is the key for the Hoyas. Until he got going defensively, Georgetown was on course to lose to both Vanderbilt and UNC. He doesn’t need to score to be effective, although he can and when he does, the Hoyas are hard to stop. He’s a good passer, a good attacker and a great off-the-ball defender. Green and Hibbert may be the scorers and the finishers, but Summers is the engine of this team.

Georgetown, in many ways, is similar to Kansas. What is this team’s identity? Is Green the team’s star? If so, why did he rarely touch the ball in the first half against UNC? Does this team need to keep the game under 70? Do they need to outscore all their opponents? Jonathan Wallace takes the big shot one night, Green the other. Sometimes they go inside, other games they rely on outside shots. This is all going to cost them in the end. Add to the fact that Georgetown has survived three close calls in a row, and their breaks and second chances are running thin.

I know that I had Georgetown in my final game against UCLA. But I expected them to beat Texas A&M to get there. This game against OSU creates different problems for the Hoyas. Georgetown won their game over UNC because of one reason. The Tar Heels missed open shots at the end. That’s it. As I said before, if Ohio State gets the same looks that UNC did, they’ll win. Wallace and Jessie Sapp are going to have a world of trouble stopping Conley and Lewis. Look for both of them to put up at least 15 points each, Oden will have 20 and 10, and Hibbert will be riding the bench in foul trouble. I expect Green and Summers to both step up with 15-20 point performances of their own, as the Hoyas squeak by.
Pick: Georgetown 75, Ohio State 73




UCLA Bruins (30-5) vs.
Florida Gators (33-5)
For the past two months, even when Florida was losing, Al Horford looked invincible. It looked like the only way to beat Florida was to find someone, anyone, who could come close to neutralizing the Gators’ most important player. Talented big men from the SEC and across the country appeared powerless to stop him. And if they couldn’t stop him, they couldn’t stop Florida down the stretch in close games.

Then Florida played Oregon. While the Gators came away with the victory, those paying close attention realized that the Gators vaunted and much publicized size-advantage isn’t as crucial as it may seem. Oregon started four players that were 6-5 or smaller, and had no player on the roster that could even come close to matching Horford’s physical talents. However, Oregon stayed with Florida for about 35 minutes and only lost because Lee Humphrey had the game of his life beyond the arc.

This game proved that a team – a very small team no less – could hang with the Gators without having an answer for Horford. Fast forward to this weekend, and the Gators run up against another Pac-10 team that puts a similar lineup on the floor.

In last year’s championship game, Luc Richard Hassan Fofana Ekene Ibekwe God Shammgod Mbah-a-Moute and Lorenzo Mata had all kinds of problems stopping Horford and Miss Joakim Noah. Mata spent most of the game looking up at Horford or sitting on the bench with foul trouble and fed Mbah-a-Moute to the wolves. Since last April, Mbah-a-Moute has gained a year of experience, about 15-20 pounds, and is no longer a pushover inside. Mata hasn’t done much to improve his game, but if you’re Ben Howland, you hope that he won’t repeat the silly mistakes he made last season.

Even if Mata goes out early, all Howland has to do is copy the strategy that Oregon used. All he needs is a decent big man (Mbah-a-Moute will more than suffice) and three sharp-shooting guards, at least two of which aren’t afraid to drive to the hoop. Fortunately for Howland, he possesses those things. In the Collison-Afflalo-Shipp trio, Howland has three guards that can easily matchup with Florida’s outside combination. Collison and Afflalo are fearless off the drive. They should be able to re-create the success that Oregon’s Malik Hairston and Aaron Brooks had going to the hole last weekend. Shipp could be the difference maker in this game for UCLA. He would play the roll of Tajuan Porter, who had a horrible game against Florida on Sunday. If Shipp plays to his usual numbers, I think you’ll see the UCLA guards combine for at least 55-60 points. Of course, UCLA should try guarding Lee Humphrey. Just a wild suggestion.


The X-factor for the Bruins needs to be Collison - who has to shoot well from outside, attack the basket and play solid defense - if UCLA hopes to win

The player that will decide the game is Florida’s Corey Brewer. Along with Horford, Brewer has been the Gators’ star all season. He did not have a great game against Oregon. That may be one of the reasons that Oregon was able to keep it so close. If he comes back to form against UCLA, then it will be tough for the Bruins to quiet the Gators offense. If Brewer is a threat, then UCLA has to worry about him, Humphrey, Horford and Taurean Green in that order (notice how I didn’t mention Noah, who has been playing like crap for the better part of the last two months). That’s a tall order for any team, even one with the defensive capabilities of the Bruins.

I picked UCLA at the beginning of the tournament to win the whole thing. I won’t abandon them now. Mbah-a-Moute has to come close to matching Horford. Afflalo and Collison have to be electric, and UCLA needs clutch threes from Shipp. If the guards shoot well for UCLA, they should win this game, no matter how dominant Horford is.
Pick: UCLA 81, Florida 76