Saturday, December 29, 2007

Cowboys at Redskins: Win One For The Gibbster



Dallas Cowboys (13-2) vs. Washington Redskins (8-7)
4:15 p.m. FedEx Field

I’m going to end the season talking about the same thing I did to begin it. Back in September, I discussed the reasons why Joe Gibbs was still the best man for the head coaching job of the Washington Redskins. Those reasons are still true today, and many others have been added.

Let’s take a look at all the Redskins have overcome this season. Start with the tragic death of Sean Taylor. This was an unprecedented situation that no coach currently in the game has ever had to deal with. That alone would be more than most teams could conquer. Look at the Atlanta Falcons. They lost one of their best players (albeit, in a completely different set of circumstances) and completely fell apart. They went from a team that could win 9 to 10 games to a team that was lucky to win three. Their season was over before it even began. The quarterback situation was never resolved. Things got so bad that their head coach packed up and got out of Dodge before the season was over.

Add to Taylor’s death the ridiculously long list of injuries. Jon Jansen was out for the season before the first game was over. Randy Thomas joined him during game two. The right side of the offensive line, one of the greatest strengths of the Redskins, was lost before the end of September. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El were in and out of the lineup for the first three months of the season. Carlos Rogers went down. Shawn Springs has had injury problems to go along with his serious concerns about his father’s life. Rocky McIntosh, a young player who has shown tremendous talent, is done for the year. Oh…and the starting quarterback is hurt too.

Finally, all the close losses could have caused lesser teams to quit. Not just quit on their season, but on their coach. The Redskins lose more close games than any other team in the NFL. Yet, they compete hard every week.

Why is this? Why are the Redskins a game away from a playoff bid? Why won’t they go quietly into that good night? The answer is simple: Joe Gibbs. The players absolutely love him. Gibbs made a terrible mistake against Buffalo with the double timeout. There’s no getting around that. But only four days later, the Redskins weathered a funeral, the loss of their starting quarterback and their fading playoff hopes to beat the Bears on a Thursday evening. What other coach could possibly get their teams to do that? Considering the situation the Redskins were in, most teams would have quit on their coach for an unacceptable mistake. The Redskins rallied around theirs. You think Wade Phillips would get that kind of response? What about Tom Coughlin? Heck, even the Hooded Bum? There’s no way.

Say what you will about the game passing Gibbs by (I don’t think that’s the case at all…if you go back to the Redskins-Dolphins pregame thread you’ll read why). The case can be made against Gibbs being fit to coach. But he has one thing that most coaches, no matter how smart they are and how well they prepare their teams, never get. The unquestioned loyalty, admiration and respect of all of his players. When a guy like Clinton Portis, who has no real loyalty other than the almighty dollar, comes out and says he won’t play for the Redskins next year unless Joe Gibbs is the coach, then you know there’s something special there.

Fortunately, Dan Snyder is enamored with his coach more than most of his players are. It’s clear that Gibbs will be the head coach of the Redskins for as long as Joe Gibbs wants to be head coach of the Redskins. I think he’ll be here at least one more season, maybe two. I think with all that’s happened this season, there’s no way that Gibbs will walk out on his team in the offseason.

Now, with that out of the way, let’s move on to the game this Sunday. It is impossible to analyze this game in any real way since it is unknown who the Cowboys will or won’t play and for how long all those players will be in the game. Considering how much these rivalry games mean to Jerry Jones and Jerry Jones’ Plastic Face, I would be willing to bet that the Cowboys will play most of their defensive starters for the majority of the game. Other than Terrell Owens, I bet the Girls will play most of their other backs and receivers. We won’t see Owens, probably won’t see Tony “0 Playoff Wins” Romo and a couple of offensive linemen. Other than that, I would fully expect to see the majority of the regular Cowboys.

So that means that this game, and the Redskins season, could come down to our old friend Brad Johnson. And there is no fury like a former quarterback scorned. Despite winning a championship with Tampa, and beating Washington last season in the opener and grounding the Redskins season before it even took off, you can rest assured that Brad Johnson is still a little ticked about the screw job he got at the hands of Snyder back in 2000.

Now before you all roll your eyes and lick your chops at the thought of the Redskins facing one of the league’s oldest quarterbacks, here’s what I said about Johnson back in September of 2006 before the Redskins hosted Minnesota:

“…Johnson, who can still win games in this league, has certainly seen his best days a long time ago. But he’s an accurate passer. He’s also a smart passer. He won’t make bad decisions. Johnson is still one of the best quarterbacks in recognizing and picking up blitzes.”

Those statements still prove true. Johnson has always been one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league. His physical abilities may have dropped off, but he can still win games. The way the Redskins play defense, which is still too passive for my liking, should allow Johnson to play fairly well while he’s in the game.

This contest is going to come down to the Redskins offense. Can the Redskins run the ball effectively? Can Todd Collins keep it going? Can the Redskins find ways to capitalize off Cowboys mistakes?

I would expect Clinton Portis to get somewhere around 70-85 yards on the ground and a handful of yards receiving. The Redskins aren’t blocking well enough on the right side for Portis to gain a lot of yards. On the other hand, there is no reason to think that Todd Collins will play poorly in this game. He fits very well into this offense. He gets rid of the ball quickly and accurately. The Redskins downfield attack has been better now than at any other time this season. Some of that has to do with Moss and Randle El finally being healthy. Most of it has to do with the quarterback. I continue to believe the Cowboys secondary is massively overrated, as evidenced by the way the Redskins moved the ball against them back in week 11. The big plays will be there.

This coaching effort from Joe Gibbs has already been one of the greatest accomplishments of his career. It would be amazing if he could will another win out of the Redskins and wrap up the NFC’s final playoff spot. This team deserves it. This city deserves it. The fans deserve it. Most importantly, Gibbs deserves it. There are plenty of reasons to worry about this one. The Cowboys aren’t going to lay down. And the Redskins never make anything easy. Hopefully the New Year will be brought in with a Redskins resurgence.

NFL Week 17: So Long Eagles, Hello Otto Graham

11 wins this week would give me a personal best in terms of the overall record. 10 would match last year’s mark, and 9 would be a big disappointment. I would need 13 games correctly against the spread to jump over last year’s record, so I doubt that will happen.
Overall: 148-77 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 125-93-7


As always, despite another sterling season, these picks should not be used for any type of gambling purposes.

SATURDAY

New England Patriots (15-0)(-13.5) vs. New York Giants (10-5)
8:15 p.m. Giants Stadium

So let me make sure I have this right. Both teams are cemented into their playoff positions in their respective conferences. The Giants probably won’t play the majority of their starters. The Patriots, even if they won to go 16-0, wouldn’t be perfect yet because they’d theoretically still have three games remaining. So why do I care about this game?
Pick: Patriots

SUNDAY

Buffalo Bills (7-8) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (7-8)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field

It was very nice of the Eagles to beat New Orleans last week. The Redskins really appreciate it fellas. Special thanks to all those classy Eagles fans out there (all four of them). Now…play this game, go back into whatever holes you live in and let’s not hear from any of you until next September. Thanks again.
Pick: Eagles

Carolina Panthers (6-9) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium

Who’s looking forward to that titanic Giants-Bucs first round game next week? Please, don’t all get excited at once.
Pick: Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals (6-9)(-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-14)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium

I hope the Bengals don’t fire Marvin Lewis. I don’t think they will, but it has become a distinct possibility. You have to remember what the Bengals were before Lewis got there to have any appreciation for what Lewis has done. Remember, this was a team that would consistently go 4-12. At least now the Bengals are frisky once and awhile.
Pick: Bengals

Detroit Lions (7-8) vs. Green Bay Packers (12-3)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field

Despite it being mathematically impossible, Jon Kitna is still predicting 10 wins this year for the Detroit Lions.
Pick: Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) vs. Houston Texans (7-8)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium

Are the Texans really a touchdown favorite? I’m assuming the Jaguars are going to rest all their starters. Otherwise, why would Houston be favored at all?
Pick: Jaguars

New Orleans Saints (7-8)(-1) vs. Chicago Bears (6-9)
1:00 p.m. Solider Field

The Bears just played in their “Super Bowl” last week against Green Bay. They’ve already packed it in for next season. Saints should roll. Sorry Redskins fans, the backdoor into the playoffs is closed.
Pick: Saints

Seattle Seahawks (10-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-12)(PK)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Again, I’m assuming the line is non-existent because the Seahawks are going to rest everybody. This line actually makes sense considering that the Seahawks came East two weeks ago and crapped the bed against Carolina. And there was still something for the Seahawks to play for at that time. On the other had, the Falcons are so bad, I can’t possibly pick them.
Pick: Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers (5-10) vs. Cleveland Browns (9-6)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Most places are telling you that it doesn’t matter what Cleveland does in this game, but they don’t tell you why. Let me try to explain. If both Cleveland and Tennessee win, then they both have identical conference records, and the next tiebreaker belongs to the Titans. If they both lose, Cleveland is playing an NFC opponent (and a poor one at that), and that would make Cleveland’s AFC conference record better than Tennessee’s. So this is really a bizarre, and I believe, unprecedented situation for the Browns. They could show up and blow out the 49ers. They could lay down and get waxed. They could start a team compromised of Jim Brown, Paul Warfield and the corpse of the late Otto Graham and it wouldn’t matter.
Pick: Browns, 49ers cover

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)(-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-11)
4:15 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium

Here’s hoping we have another Ravens loss and the Criminals carry the longest losing streak in the NFL into next season. Happy New Year Baltimore!
Pick: Steelers

Minnesota Vikings (8-7)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (6-9)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High

The Redskins provided a blueprint for beating Minnesota in future seasons. Put 8 or 9 guys in the box and force Tarvaris Jackson to beat you. That simple. He is plain awful. Denver can’t stop the run. That’s bad news for the Broncos.
Pick: Vikings

San Diego Chargers (10-5)(-7) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-11)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum

The Chargers still have something to play for. So that one score line may be a tad low.
Pick: Chargers

St. Louis Rams (3-12) vs. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)(-6)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
You know at the beginning of the season when I said the Rams were my darkhorse team and could sneak in to the playoffs? Yeah, ignore that.
Pick: Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs (4-11) vs. New York Jets (3-12)(-5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium

Remember when I said the Jets would be awful this season? Yeah, focus on that. By the way, how would you like to be the guy in Vegas who has to make a betting line for this game?
Pick: Jets

Tennessee Titans (9-6)(-5.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (13-2)
8:15 p.m. RCA Dome

We know the Colts are going to play Peyton Manning for at least a half. Tony Dungy learned two seasons ago that it doesn’t pay to rest your starters if you have a bye week already clinched. There’s no sense in giving players 20 days off between games. The Colts starters should play long enough to win.
Pick: Colts

Friday, December 21, 2007

Redskins at Vikings: Ship Shape Scenarios



Washington Redskins (7-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
8:15 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
For those wondering, or too lazy to look it up, I’ll just quickly recap the playoff situation for the Redskins. The Redskins are currently 7-7. They are tied with New Orleans, a game behind Minnesota and two games behind the Giants.

Let’s start with the easiest explanation. If the Redskins lose to Minnesota, they’re eliminated since they would be two games behind the Giants and Vikings with only one game to play. Kind of hard to make up that difference.

However, if the Redskins beat Minnesota, they would have the good fortune of owning two tiebreakers. They would obviously own the head-to-head with Minnesota. Also, if the Giants were to lose out to Buffalo and New England (a distinct possibility), the Redskins would also own the tiebreaker with New York based on record against common opponents. That’s the fourth tiebreaker on the NFL’s list. The Redskins would not own the tiebreaker with New Orleans because the Saints have a better conference record.

The Saints actually own the tiebreaker with the three other teams based on conference record. So despite being 7-7, New Orleans is in decent shape with both an easy schedule and all the tiebreakers. The Vikings own the tiebreaker over the Giants based on their 41-17 beatdown in the Meadowlands last month. The Giants own no tiebreakers. If they lose their last two games, they are in big trouble. The best case scenario for New York in the case of two losses would be clinching the sixth seed and having to travel across country to Seattle to lose in the first round of the playoffs. The worst case involves Tom Coughlin being run out of town with thousands of angry, torch-wielding fans following him. I kind of like the worst case scenario.

All four teams have legitimate shots at the playoffs. The Vikings and Giants are better off because of their record, but the Saints and Redskins (if the Redskins win this weekend) would own all the tiebreakers. If this doesn’t make any sense to you, don’t worry. By this time next week it will.

Now, the real problem for the Redskins are the teams remaining on their schedule. The trip to Minnesota looked like the tougher of the two a week ago. The home game against Dallas probably would have meant very little to the Cowboys since they would have already clinched home field. That was until Tony Romo had a booboo on this thumb and the Eagles, after 14 games, decided to start playing like a real football team again. Now Dallas will probably have to win out to get homefield advantage, which means the finale in D.C. will mean something for both teams.

Time for the Redskins to put on the snow tires, keep Fred Smoot away from all boats and head to the Great White North. Hopefully the Redskins aren’t paying attention to the Dallas game, because they have a real test under the dome this weekend. The Minnesota Vikings have salvaged their 3-6 season with five straight wins. It’s not exactly like Minnesota has been beating great competition. Other than their win in the Meadowlands, the other four victories came against Oakland, Detroit, San Francisco and Chicago. But other than the game last Monday against Chicago, the Vikings are beating these teams soundly and convincingly. Something that the Redskins could learn from.

The reason I like Minnesota is their strategy of team-building. After Daunte Culpepper’s injury and Randy Moss’ exodus a couple of season’s ago, the Vikings appeared to looking at a lengthy rebuilding process. However, the Vikings didn’t go after splashy offseason signings. They went after offensive and defensive lineman. Minnesota started by rebuilding the team up front, then added pieces behind them. It is so rare to see a team do this in the NFL anymore. But it’s the reason the Vikings are 8-6 and in the middle of the playoff race. Look at Arizona. They continue to look for big names at skill positions (Matt Leinart and Edgerrin James were just two of the more recent selections) but never settled their obvious deficiencies on the offensive line. That’s why they are 6-8 and continue to disappoint every single season. The Vikings are very well on their way to the playoffs with Tarvaris Jackson as their quarterback.

Now some will look at that argument and say “Hey Mark, what about Adrian Peterson. The Vikings added him and they instantly go better.” Not necessarily. I’ll admit that Peterson is much better than I thought he would be. But look who he’s running behind. Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk are outstanding offensive linemen. Any NFL-caliber running back should be able to put up 1,400-1,600 yards behind those guys. Put Peterson on the Cardinals or Lions and there is no way he’s got half the stats he currently does. Defenses know that the Vikings are going to run the ball. With Jackson as the quarterback, and with the best receiving threats being Sidney Rice and Troy Williamson, teams know that the only offensive strength is the running game. And they are still the best in the NFL at running the ball because the offensive line is too good. It’s got a little to do with Peterson and a lot to do with their offensive line.

The Vikings defensive line is just as good as their offensive front. The Vikings lead the league in rush defense. Pat and Kevin Williams are a solid one-two punch at defensive tackle. They do a great job occupying blockers and allowing the Vikings linebackers to finish off plays. This is why Minnesota can succeed both inside and outside. They can run the ball and stop the run better than anyone else in football.

That’s also the Vikings weakness. They are the ultimate one-dimensional team. Jackson is an awful quarterback. If anyone watched the game Monday night you’d know what I’m talking about. He has terrible footwork, his throwing motion is unorthodox to say the least, he has below average arm-strength and rotten-decision making. He’s was the worst opening day starter in the NFL and he continues to be one of the worst starters in Week 16 despite a hoard of quarterbacks getting starts this season. He has no real receiving corps. He has no tight end as a reliable safety valve. Frankly, there’s not one thing about the Vikings’ passing “attack” that is redeemable (now that I’ve said that, I’m sure that Jackson will throw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns).

The defensive secondary isn’t great either. The bad stats are somewhat inflated because opposing teams give up on the run so early in the game that the Vikings face more pass plays than anyone else. Despite that fact, the Vikings secondary doesn’t do a great job of stopping all those passing attempts. And as good as Williams and Williams are at run-stopping, their immense girth doesn’t help the Vikings get any consistent pass rush.

If Todd Collins wants to prove that he is an NFL-caliber quarterback after waiting 10 years for a shot, this is the game. I can’t see Clinton Portis getting more than 50 or 60 yards. The Vikings defense is set up perfectly for short timing routes to set up deep passes later in the game. Collins won’t have to worry about 30 MPH wins like he did in the Meadowlands. The 8-10 yard crossing routes should be there all day. Collins certainly knows the offense and has a quicker release than Jason Campbell. He should have success in the air. Defensively, the Redskins have to put eight in the box to stop the Peterson-Chester Taylor combination. The last two weeks have shown weaknesses in the myth of Peterson being unstoppable. He only has 81 yards on 34 carries the last two weeks combined. So it’s possible to negate him and force Jackson to beat you.

With all the things that have gone wrong for the Redskins this season, here’s a great chance for something to go right. A win here makes their rivalry game next week all the more meaningful. It would sure be nice to see them play for something other than pride on the final weekend of December.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

NFL Week 16: Right Again...But What Else Is New?

Distressing times call for more careful picks. While the overall record has stayed on the level, the point spread picks have been slammed for two consecutive weeks. Two straight 5-10 marks in a row. Not good.
Overall: 138-72 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 118-85-7

THURSDAY

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)(-8) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-11)
8:15 p.m. Edward Jones Dome

Seriously, enough with these Thursday/Saturday games. If you want to have some games on Thanksgiving, fine. If you want to have the occasional Saturday game after the college season is over, fine. But these weekly games are terrible ideas. First of all, most of them end up being absolute duds because they are scheduled before the season and can’t be flexed. Secondly, they’re being aired on a network that no one can get without paying a good deal of extra money. Look NFL, I already have to pay for the television, the speakers and the cable. Just let me see all the games please.
Pick: Steelers

SATURDAY

Dallas Cowboys (12-2)(-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (6-8)
8:15 p.m. Bank of America Stadium

The Cowboys loss to Philly actually hurts the Redskins (more on that later this week) in the long run. However, the Romo injury was an interesting and welcomed development. I continue to believe the NFC is completely wide open. Any team can beat Dallas if their quarterback situation is in flux.
Pick: Cowboys

SUNDAY

Cleveland Browns (9-5)(-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-9)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Clearly Las Vegas has not been watching the Bengals closely this season. Otherwise, this spread would not be as low as three.
Pick: Browns

Green Bay Packers (12-2)(-8.5) vs. Chicago Bears (5-9)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field

Depending who plays quarterback for Chicago, this could be an upset. The Bears already won at Lambeau Field. As bas as Rex Grossman and Brian Griese are, they can occasionally move the offense for a field goal or two. That’s more than Kyle Orton can do. Unfortunately, I think we’ll see Orton this Sunday.
Pick: Packers

Houston Texans (7-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (12-2)(-7)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome

This line will depend on how long the Colts have their starters in the game. Three quarters should be enough to win by a touchdown.
Pick: Colts

Kansas City Chiefs (4-10) vs. Detroit Lions (6-8)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field

“How to go from division title, to a wildcard spot, to mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in six weeks or less”…By: Jon Kitna and Mike Martz. Special forward by Matt Millen.
Pick: Lions

New York Giants (9-5)(-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-7)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium

I knew the real Giants would show up eventually. Their traditional late-season collapse came a couple of weeks behind schedule, but as winter rolls around, the Giants are falling apart at Tom Coughlin’s feet. Will 9-7 be good enough for a playoff spot? Probably not, since they would own no tiebreakers.
Pick: Bills

Oakland Raiders (4-10) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)(-12)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium

Like everyone else, I’d like to reserve a seat on the Jacksonville bandwagon. Great to finally see Jacksonville play well in a cold weather environment. Believe it or not, this team is built for cold weather. They have a quarterback who tries to minimize mistakes and does nothing risky. They have two solid running backs. Their defense stops the run. This team, despite being from Florida, can win in the cold. Which is good, because they won’t get a home playoff game. I do hesitate to pick Jacksonville here, because this is a game that they usually blow, or allow it to be much closer than it should.
Pick: Jaguars

Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-7)(-3)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome

Trust me, I won’t be rooting for the Eagles this Sunday. I’ll just be rooting against the Saints.
Pick: Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)(-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (4-10)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park

Most seasons, teams like Tampa Bay and Seattle wouldn’t be taken seriously, despite winning their divisions by early December. Both teams have way too many deficiencies to compete week in and week out with the best. But because the NFC is so up in the air, you have to take any team in the NFC seriously as long as they make the playoffs.
Pick: Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons (3-11) vs. Arizona Cardinals (6-8)(-10)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
The problem with picking all the games is I actually have to pick all the games. I know I say this at least once a year, but do you really care about this game? I know I don’t.
Pick: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (1-13) vs. New England Patriots (14-0)(-22)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium

Reason number 1,350 to dislike New England: they are currently the only team to remove the Sean Taylor decals from their helmets. Classy.
Pick: Patriots

Baltimore Ravens (4-10) vs. Seattle Seahawks (9-5)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field

I usually don’t break out the “I told you so dance,” but here it is. This is what I said about the Ravens back in early September:

“…As I stated at the beginning of this post, the age of defense winning championships is coming to an end. To succeed in the NFL, at least during the regular season, you must have a high-powered offense. The 2006 Ravens were the exception that proved the rule that offenses are taking over the game. But they won’t have enough this year. McNair will break down again. You can bet the mortgage on it. Without a passing game, it doesn’t matter who is running the ball. That’s why I think the trade for Willis McGahee was a waste. Why bother when the other team is stacking the box with eight? Be warned though, the Ravens, after their opener in Cincinnati, have an extremely easy first half…After that they have two games against Pittsburgh, another against the Bengals, and games against New England, San Diego, Indianapolis and Seattle. Even a road trip to Miami could be tricky. They may start 5-2, but they’ll probably end the season in the neighborhood of 2-7.”

Who knew that 2-7 was being generous? I dare you to find anyone who thought this team was a non-contender in September like I did. Their schedule was too difficult, their offense too inept, their coach too much in love with himself to play to the strengths of his team. It was fun watching that loss to Miami. You know me, I love being right.
Pick: Seahawks

New York Jets (3-11) vs. Tennessee Titans (8-6)(-9)
4:15 p.m. LP Field

Too little, too late for Tennessee. At least they showed up for the 2007 campaign. Unlike a certain other team that will be taking the field in Nashville.
Pick: Titans

MONDAY

Denver Broncos (6-8) vs. San Diego Chargers (9-5)(-9)
8:00 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Let’s not get too excited about the Chargers 37-point win. Just take a look at who it was against. Now having said that, during this four-game winning streak for San Diego, the Chargers have gotten back to doing what they do best: get the football into the hands of LaDainian Tomlinson and out of the hands of Philip Rivers.
Pick: Chargers

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Redskins at Giants: In Todd We Trust?



Washington Redskins (6-7) vs. New York Giants (9-4)
8:15 p.m. Giants Stadium

Todd Collins or bust. Heck, why not. This season continues down the staircase from serene to strange to bizarre. As if the Redskins didn’t have enough problems to deal with. Now they have to put in a backup quarterback whose last NFL start came ten years and two days ago. The Todd Collins to Todd Yoder combination lives! Meet the Toddskins!

To those who are frightened of seeing another old quarterback under center, I have to ask this: does it really make a difference? Can Collins really do worse than Jason Campbell has done? I really don’t think so.

Now before the vast majority of Redskins fans try to run me out of town with torches, let me at least try and explain. Is Campbell really the quarterback of the future? Campbell, as of this very moment, knee injury not withstanding, is an average quarterback. He has some potential, but he’s not improving fast enough or dramatically enough for every fan to anoint him as the Redskins “savior”. He has played well at times this season. But he is slow getting rid of the ball. He doesn’t hold on to the ball very well. And he chokes in pressure situations. He has yet to lead this team to a last minute victory, the kind of drive that make average quarterbacks great. He’s certainly had his chances over his 19 starts. He had chances in back to back weeks against Tampa and Dallas. He even had two chances in the Tampa game. All three times he threw drive killing interceptions. All three were forced. All three were terrible passes.

Those in the media who agree with me try and compare him to Tony Romo. In terms of on the field experience, I guess that’s a logical comparison. They both roughly have the same amount of starts. But it’s a bad comparison because Romo has been in the league more than five years while Jason has been in the league only three. Plus, those that compare the two just to slam Campbell would be wise to look at the amount of playoff victories Romo has. In case you are wondering, it’s the same amount that I have. So comparing Campbell to Romo just to make this point is a bad idea, especially since Romo has won nothing of importance yet.

I like to compare Campbell to the other first round draft picks from the year he was drafted, the year before he was drafted and the year after (2004-06). Those quarterbacks are: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler. Including Campbell, that’s ten quarterbacks.

Ben Roethlisberger has already won a Super Bowl, and after a shaky 2006, appears to be just fine and will lead Pittsburgh to its third playoff appearance in his four season. Eli Manning (more on him in a minute) is criticized more than any quarterback in the NFL. Most of that has to do with the idiotic New York media and the dumbest fan base north of Philadelphia. Slam him all you want, but Manning is about to lead the Giants to the playoffs for the third straight season. And it’s not as if the Giants have a decent running game to help him out.

Losman, Smith and Rodgers all appear to be busts. Losman is all but done in Buffalo. Smith can’t stay healthy and even when he is; he’s probably the least talented of all the quarterbacks on this list. Rodgers looked decent against Dallas a couple of weeks ago, but there’s a reason that Green Bay keeps begging Brett Favre to come back every season and putting up with his crap when he doesn’t make his mind up until training camp.

Then you have the other five quarterback just hovering in the middle. Rivers, in my opinion, is just plain awful. He still throws the ball sidearm, which is something he did at N.C. State and something that is killing him now in San Diego. In spite of Rivers, and in spite of Norv Turner, the Chargers are decent because they have a killer defense and one of the best running games in the league. Without LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers would be a four to five win team. However, Rivers has managed to go 22-8 in the last two seasons, so he must be doing something right. Most days, he’s able to get out of the way and let LT carry the team. So he can’t be all bad. Young, Leinart and Cutler all appear to be very promising. If you’ve watched the Broncos this season, you can see the dramatic improvement of Jay Cutler from October to the present. It is like watching a completely different quarterback. He is going to be something special. Young is doing his best to carry a team with no running game, no receivers and a mediocre defense to a playoff spot. While it’s unlikely the Titans will get one, they should finish right around 8-8 and finally have cap room to go get Young some help in the offseason. Leinart has proved to be brittle in the NFL, and he is up and down from game to game.

Right now, I’d have to put Roethlisberger, Manning, Young and Cutler well above Jason Campbell in terms of development. Leinart, Smith, Rodgers and Losman are all below him. Rivers is probably right on the same level. If you don’t believe me, go look at the career numbers. So I ask you again, is Campbell really the quarterback of the future? He’s not any better or any worse than Rivers is right now, and Rivers isn’t in the top 12-15 quarterbacks in the league. I for one would not want Philip Rivers on my team. And I’m beginning to reach the point of saying that I don’t want Campbell either.

I asked earlier if Collins could really do worse than Campbell? The answer is probably no, but it’s not as if he’s going to do any better. I equate a backup quarterback to a relief pitcher. If he’s asked to come in midway through a game and lead the team, that’s fine. But if all of a sudden, the number one guy goes down, and now the relief pitcher has five days to think about his start (or in Collins’ case, 10 days), it becomes a much different ballgame. It’s basically like asking a relief pitcher to start in the rotation for the next three weeks and give the team six to seven solid innings every time he takes the mound. It’s not going to happen because he’s not used to doing it. Asking Collins to come off the bench and lead the Redskins to three wins against teams with a combined 28-11 record with two of those games being on the road is not only unfair to him, it’s illogical. Campbell wasn’t going to do it, so you certainly can’t expect Collins to do it either.

So I guess that leads to the evening tilt at the Meadowlands. The Redskins have lost by a combined 55-3 score the last two trips to the pig farms of Northern New Jersey. They’ve been dominated from start to finish in both of those games. I would have said that without Tiki Barber, the Giants probably wouldn’t do that again. But, the Giants already own a win this season over the Redskins, so there’s no real argument to be made in favor of the Redskins winning this game.

The Skins have to hope that Eli Manning has one of his “Bad Rex” days and hands the Redskins the ball. Then, you have to hope that Al Saunders allows Todd Collins to run the entire offense, something he has yet to let Campbell attempt. Then you have to hope for the swirling winds and supposed snow to level the competition enough that this becomes a running back contest. In that case, I would take the Portis/Betts combination over whatever back the Giants decide throw out there this week. Then you have to hope Portis actually shows up. That’s a lot of hope, but at this point, with all the injuries and all the difficulties the team has had the past two weeks, hope is all the Redskins have left.

Friday, December 14, 2007

NFL Week 15: "STIFF ARM! FOUR YARD GAIN!"

An 11-4 week plus a win last night as the Texans beat the Broncos continues the overall record on its steep ascent. However, the record against the spread did not fare so well last week, and it was epitomized in the Bengals 9-point win over the Rams with the line sitting at 9.5. Eesh:
Overall: 130-66 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 113-75-7


SATURDAY

Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)(-8.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-10)
8:15 p.m. Monster Park

As mentioned previously, the Bengals failed to win by the necessary 10 points and the 49ers didn’t cover a very large spread against the Vikings (which I thought they would). Clearly, neither one of these teams deserve to win this week as retribution. And if the Bengals only win by eight, so help me…
Pick: Bengals

SUNDAY

Arizona Cardinals (6-7) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-7)(-4)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Last week, when I said that the Cardinals would make their game against Seattle close, I forgot to factor in the crappy Seattle weather. If I had known it would be 50 and rainy (which, since it was Seattle, I probably should have), I would never have picked a team led by Kurt Warner to cover the spread. Warner is one of the worst outdoor quarterbacks of all-time. No problems for Kurt in the dome this week.
Pick: Cardinals

Atlanta Falcons (3-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium

To show you how bad the Falcons are, just look at the line for this game. How in the world can anyone make Tampa Bay a 13-point favorite?
Pick: Buccaneers, Falcons cover

Baltimore Ravens (4-9)(-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-13)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Last chance to dance for the Dolphins, because they won’t win either of their final two games. This is a very beatable Ravens team and one that very closely resembles Miami. Both defenses are getting old, neither team possesses any offensive weapons and both coaches should, and won’t, be fired.
Pick: Ravens

Buffalo Bills (7-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (8-5)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium

Both teams have two easy wins at the end of their schedules, so the winner here should be the AFC’s final playoff team. This game has Gus Johnson Special written all over it (close game, good amount of offense, field goal to decide it). If you are a Gus Johnson fan like me, you may want to check out this hilarious parody (LINK HERE, if it has moved, look for the December 11th section).
Pick: Browns, Bills cover

Green Bay Packers (11-2)(-9) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-10)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome

What can you possibly say about this game? Too bad Gus Johnson can’t do this game to liven it up a little.
Pick: Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-4)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field

These two teams will probably meet again the first weekend in January. Neither really has much to play for. Pittsburgh has basically wrapped their division up since they own the tie-breaker over Cleveland. Jacksonville can’t catch up to Indianapolis, and it’s unlikely that they’ll be passed by since they too own a tie-breaker over Cleveland. While this game looks good on paper, neither team will show much because they know they’ll have to play again in the postseason. Ben Roethlisberger looks like he’ll be starting, so I’ll just go with the home team.
Pick: Steelers

New York Jets (3-10) vs. New England Patriots (13-0)(-22)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium

How many times are we expected to care what happens when Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini shake hands after a game? I think it’s embarrassing for the NFL that the biggest news around this game is actually the postgame handshake between two vial coaches.
Pick: Patriots

Seattle Seahawks (9-4)(-8) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-8)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
This game has that upset smell to it. The Seahawks will be traveling across country a week after winning a big division game to clinch their division. They’re not catching Green Bay for the second bye week, so they are going to start resting some starters and slacking off a little.
Pick: Seahawks, Panthers cover

Tennessee Titans (7-6)(-3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-9)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
The Titans had my upset special all sown up and were ready to get out of town with a win over San Diego. That was until Norv Turner, after 12-and-a-half games, finally decided to start running the ball.
Pick: Titans

Indianapolis Colts (11-2)(-10.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-9)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum

The Raiders took a huge step backwards in Green Bay this past weekend. There were starting to resemble a real NFL team until getting blown out in every possible way. I still like the Raiders to be right around .500 next season, but they probably won’t win again in 2007.
Pick: Colts

Detroit Lions (6-7) vs. San Diego Chargers (8-5)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Jon Kitna’s prediction of 10 wins this season was a good idea in theory. But before he made it, he should have stopped and realized what team he was playing for.
Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) vs. Dallas Cowboys (12-1)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium

As usual, my policy for NFC East games dictates that I don’t care who wins as long as there are a sufficient number of injuries.
Pick: Cowboys

MONDAY

Chicago Bears (5-8) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)(-10)
8:30 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome

Before we anoint Adrian Peterson as the next Walter Payton, let’s look as his line last week. He had 14 carries for 3 yards. Even worse, he was playing the 49ers defense. Yikes.
Pick: Vikings, Bears cover

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Maryland Basketball: Wake Me Up When December Ends



Boston College Eagles (6-1) at
Maryland Terrapins (6-3)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD


Alright! Time for the ACC season to once again start before Christmas. Good times!

For the third consecutive season, the Maryland Terrapins get set to square off against long-time rival Boston College in a December conference game that will be followed by 15 more conference games…they just happen to be a full month down the road. Why Maryland has to keep doing this is beyond me. The next conference game of any kind will be December 23rd when Virginia Tech visits Wake Forest. Even though that is still a couple of weeks early, it’s not as absurd as this annual Maryland-BC get together. So, for the third straight season, I get to complain about the ACC scheduling.

As I’ve stated before in my previous Maryland-BC game posts, the ACC expansion was a ridiculous waste of time. The intention of allowing BC, Virginia Tech and Miami into the conference was to simultaneously get better overall in football and add a football championship game. The shear numbers of the conference allowed the ACC Championship Game to be born. However, since allowing the three schools into the conference, the ACC has gotten progressively worse in football (although BC and Tech have been two of the better programs). Also, the ACC Championship Game, which was supposed to wield millions upon millions of extra dollars in revenue, has been a bust as well. In what should have been an entertaining game last Saturday between two decent teams, Jacksonville’s Alltell Stadium was half-full with thousands of tickets left unclaimed and unsold. At least it wasn’t as bad as last season’s championship, in which the stadium was almost two-thirds empty and neither Wake Forest nor Georgia Tech scored a single touchdown.

Of course, the side effect for the ACC was to become so gargantuan that a round-robin regular season in basketball, once a great staple and tradition that made ACC basketball what it was, would no longer be possible. On top of that, looking down the road, it appears the expansion also watered-down basketball in general. I mean, other than North Carolina, what is there?

The Dookies are ok, but beating mid-tier Big 10 teams by 20 points shouldn’t really excite anyone. There are several mid-major conferences that have passed Big 10 basketball at this point. And the Blow Devils are still only nine months removed from losing to VCU in the first round of the NCAA tournament (more on those Rams in a moment). They didn’t suddenly become a national contender overnight. What about NC State? Weren’t they supposed to be good this season? Was that before or after they lost to New Orleans and East Carolina? Why would anyone say this team was good? It’s not like they were in the Top 25 at the beginning of the season. Wait, they were? Well, they weren’t on mine. Remember, I said in early November they wouldn’t even qualify for the NCAA’s and they would be lucky to make the NIT. Virginia is going to step up, right? Well, after Sean Singletary, I kind of lose interest with the rest of the team. Adrian Joseph is really the second best player on the Wahoos? Alright, I guess if you want to go 8-8 in conference that’s the way to go. What about Virginia Tech? They were on the way up. That was until their entire lineup, save for punk-doofus Deron Washington, wore out their eligibility. Georgia Tech has fallen off the map. Wake Forest has too, not to mention they’re dealing with bigger issues than basketball this season. Florida State and Miami are bad as usual (ignore the decent record the two have put up so far this season…they’re bad, trust me). Clemson is undefeated, and probably will be as they enter January. That should assure them of a NCAA bid. No ACC team that wins 17 games in a row misses the tournament, right? Hello, is this thing on? Clemson? Oliver Purnell? Hello…anyone there?

The ACC used to be a nine team league that would routinely send at least five or six programs a year to the NCAA. And at least two or three of those teams would have legitimate national title claims. Now, the ACC is sending anywhere from four to seven teams a season, and maybe one of those teams has a chance to win the whole thing. The rest of the teams are just there because they put up a decent record against a watered-down conference. Look, someone has to win all these ACC games on the schedule. Some fans like to call it parity. I call it bad basketball. At the turn of the millennium, no one could realistically claim that there was a better basketball conference, from top to bottom, than the ACC. A couple of years ago, conferences like the Big East and SEC could argue that they were as good as the ACC, but ACC fans could still win that argument pretty easily. Now, there’s no real debate. The Atlantic Coast Conference has been passed by. The Pac-10 is better. The Big East is better. The Big XII, a football conference through and through, is better. And it looks as if it’s going to stay that way for the foreseeable future. More was ruined than tradition and scheduling when the ACC expanded. The quality of the game itself has steadily gone downhill the past three seasons.

Which brings me to the Maryland-Boston College game. Like the rest of the teams not named UNC, these are two programs that are on a progressive path downward. For BC, it’s easy to tell you what’s wrong. In the past two years, Craig Smith, Jared Dudley and Sean Marshall have graduated or moved on to the NBA. That’s a lot of talent gone. So when the Eagles go 6-10 in the conference this season, you’ll know why. For Maryland, it’s not as simple.

The loss to VCU is not a terrible one. The Rams still have Eric Maynor, a kid who I will always be a fan of, because he single-handedly sent Ratface and the Nerds packing last season. Plus, the loss came at the BB&T Classic which should just be renamed John Feinstein & Friends Find a Way to Screw Maryland Each and Every Season (I know, a little wordy, but it could catch on). How many times are we going to lose in this tournament before we pull out? At this point, it’s death, taxes and Maryland losing at the Verizon Center. Anyway, the loss to VCU isn’t one that’s going to make or break Maryland’s season. In fact, none of Maryland’s three losses are bad at all. VCU, UCLA and Missouri should all make the NCAA tournament this season. It’s the larger picture that worries me.

Maryland is averaging less than 75 points a game. And even though they’ve played four quality teams, they’ve also played five really bad ones. Their points per game should be much higher. The three-point shooting is hovering right around 30%. No one other than James Gist seems to be getting any rebounds. And, saving the best for last, Maryland as a team has more turnovers than assists. I don’t feel like looking through 320 or so programs to verify this, but I’m willing to bet that there aren’t many teams this far into the season with a 1/1.2 a/t ratio.

The good news for Maryland is that this game is at home, and they should win it. Boston College isn’t exactly lighting up the college world either. They were dominated by mighty Providence, and have escaped with very close wins against powerhouses like Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Florida Atlantic. Other than Tyrese Rice, and maybe Shamari “Seriously, No Relation To Britney” Spears, there isn’t much on this roster to worry about. This is a very young team that has played only one road game so far this year (against terrible Michigan). So hopefully home court advantage is enough. Despite the silliness of playing an ACC game on December 9th, this is a good game at a good time for Maryland. A win here, and they should be able to cruise into next month, which is the next time I’ll probably be talking about them.

Maryland 77
Boston College 71

Saturday, December 08, 2007

NFL Week 14: No Spread Is Safe

Another solid week of 10-5 puts me only two games behind last season’s record pace. Considering some of the ugly weeks I had early in the season, I’m in a pretty good place. Let’s continue that, shall we:
Overall: 118-62 (65%)
Vs. Spread: 108-65-7


As always, try not to use these picks for any gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Carolina Panthers (5-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)(-10.5)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium

The Panthers are one of 27 NFC teams still only one game or less out of a playoff spot. That they’ve done this while being quarterbacked by Vinny Testaverde would usually be nothing short of remarkable. But considering that they’re still only 5-7, it shows you how bad the middle to lower part of the NFC actually is. As these two 1995 expansion teams meet, it seems like an easy win for the Jaguars, who are a very good football team that continues to fly under the radar. But, we’ve seen the Jaguars blow non-conference games like this for the past few seasons. A Jacksonville loss wouldn’t shock me.
Pick: Jaguars, Panthers cover

Dallas Cowboys (11-1)(-10.5) vs. Detroit Lions (6-6)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field

Let’s see…an angry Cowboys team that is clicking on offense, that’s had 10 days to prepare for this game and is facing one of the worst defenses in the league. I don’t think there could be a line high enough in this one to persuade me to take Detroit.
Pick: Cowboys

Miami Dolphins (0-12) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-6)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium

I still don’t think the Dolphins will go winless, but it’s hard to pick them when they’re getting blown out by 27 against a fellow AFC bottom feeder.
Pick: Bills

New York Giants (8-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field

C’mon…what would a NFL season be without a New York Giants late season collapse? It hasn’t happened yet, but with their remaining schedule, losing three out of the next four isn’t out of the question.
Pick: Eagles

Oakland Raiders (4-8) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-2)(-11)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field

As I’ve been saying, the Raiders aren’t as awful as their record indicates. I don’t care how bad Kansas City is, it is never easy to win in Arrowhead. Oakland followed up that win with a victory over Denver, a team that’s owned them during this decade. They’ve played a fairly tough schedule (and won’t be helped by the closing stretch of Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and San Diego), but if they manage to get a fifth win somewhere, I think that has to count as a positive step for the Raiders.
Pick: Packers, Raiders cover

St. Louis Rams (3-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium

All I need to know is Brock Berlin is starting for the Rams under center.
Pick: Bengals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-4)(-3) vs. Houston Texans (5-7)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium

Where are all those people who said that the Texans were for real after they started 2-0? A 3-7 record since that time, including two wins over Oakland and Miami, just have me wondering.
Pick: Buccaneers

San Diego Chargers (7-5)(-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-5)
1:00 p.m. LP Field

With a Detroit-Denver-Oakland finish to the season, it appears that all the Chargers would have to do is get by Tennessee to run the table, get a nice 11-5 record, and get ready to face the Browns or Titans again at home in the first round of the playoffs. That’s why they’ll probably lose here, go 10-6, and be forced to face Jacksonville in round one. Be on upset alert.
Pick: Titans

Minnesota Vikings (6-6)(-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-9)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park

Speaking of upset alert, look out Vikings! Minnesota is feeling really good about themselves as of late, certainly good enough to overlook a miserable 49ers team. I don’t think the lousy play of Tarvaris Jackson has reared its ugly head for the last time. This game reeks of an upset. I wish I had the guts to pick the straight 49ers win, because it wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Pick: Vikings, 49ers cover

Arizona Cardinals (6-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)(-7.5)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field

Another potential upset. The Seahawks never have an easy time in their own division. Get them outside of the NFC West, and they usually do fairly well. However, they play way too many close games in this terrible division. They’ve been doing so for years. Look for the Cardinals to make this one very interesting.
Pick: Seahawks, Cardinals cover

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) vs. New England Patriots (12-0)(-11)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Field

I for one don’t think that the Patriots received any favorable treatment against Baltimore. If you take a look at most of the Ravens’ 13 penalties, most of them were false starts, offsides and delay of games. Which are pretty obvious calls. The personal foul on Bart Scott for throwing an official’s flag is also a very obvious call. The only two questionable calls were the late pass interference penalties. One I thought was a good call, the other was borderline. Other than that, the Ravens pretty much shot themselves in the foot this past Monday night and had a typical Ravens meltdown that included trash talking after a loss and complaining about the refs from both coaches and players.

However, lost in all this babbling over the Ravens, is the fact that Patriots have played two lousy games in a row against two lousy teams. They continue to exhibit no running game whatsoever. Their defense is very questionable in the secondary. One week after getting burned by Hall of Famer A.J. Feeley, the Patriots allowed perennial Pro-Bowler Kyle Boller to go 15-23 for 210 yards and two scores. These are things that are going to catch up to New England as the weather gets colder. As good as the Patriots are, they don’t seem to be built to play in cold weather and less than ideal conditions. That’s pretty ironic considering where they play. Pittsburgh will probably lose here, but don’t just automatically hand the AFC over the New England. I think both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis are going to seriously challenge the Pats in January.
Pick: Patriots, Steelers cover

Cleveland Browns (7-5)(-3.5) vs. New York Jets (3-9)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium

I’m still very much enjoying the Jets collapse this season. The only reason I’m enjoying it so much is that I was apparently the only one to see it coming. It’s called research people.
Pick: Browns

Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) vs. Denver Broncos (5-7)(-7)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High

Last month, this looked like a great matchup featuring two teams that were right in the thick of a mediocre division. Well, they’ve still got the mediocre division thing going for them.
Pick: Broncos

Indianapolis Colts (10-2)(-9) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-8)
8:15 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Once upon a midnight dreary, there was a team both weak and weary
This past Monday they had a huge meltdown that many deplore
Their coach looked dumb, their team looked old, their fans as obnoxious as ever
False starts, personal fouls and other no-nos they were called for
Can they recover, maybe win and some luster they restore?
Quoth the Ravens “Nevermore”
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

New Orleans Saints (5-7)(-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-9)
8:30 p.m. Georgia Dome

So when do we consider Reggie Bush somewhat of a bust? And how big of a bust is he? The man has only produced three runs from scrimmage that have been 20 yards or more in his career. Adrian Peterson does that in a quarter. Heck, Bills retread Fred Jackson did that twice against the Redskins the other week. Just let me know so I can be on board.
Pick: Saints

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Bears at Redskins: The Show Must Go On



Chicago Bears (5-7) at Washington Redskins (5-7)
8:15 p.m. FedEx Field
If one more person blames Sunday’s loss on emotional carryover, I’m going to scream. I could see if the Redskins showed up, went through the motions and were blown out. But the Redskins got a two score second half lead and then methodically lost it. They’ve been doing that all season. With or without Sean Taylor. Taylor’s death had very little, if anything, to do with last week’s loss.

Once again, the play-calling on both sides of the ball was horrendous for most of the game. Three times the Redskins had 1st and Goal inside the five-yard line, and the first two times they didn’t have a single running play. Facing one of the NFL’s worst run defenses. Does that make any sense to you? Not surprisingly, they failed to score a touchdown on either one of those drives. Is Sean Taylor somehow responsible for that too?

I’m all for dedicating the rest of the season to Sean. It would be great if they did it next season as well. Don’t get me wrong, I’m very proud of the fact that the team even showed up, let alone played competitively. But you can’t go blaming losses on him, especially when those losses are eerily similar to the losses the team suffered when he was playing.

Much has been made of the timeout that Joe Gibbs called. I have heard many stories as to why he called the timeout. Some have said that he asked the referee whether he could call it or not, and the ref either said yes or said something that would have led Gibbs to assume he could call one. Others have said that Gibbs didn’t actually call the timeout, someone near him on the bench did. I’ve even seen a random wacko say that after Gibbs saw Rian Lindell’s first 51-yard field goal go through, he knew that he’d make it again despite being iced. So Gibbs intentionally called the timeout so that he, and he alone, could be blamed for the loss and his team wouldn’t feel completely terrible after losing a game they dedicated to their former teammate.

Those are all good conspiracies, but I doubt any of them are true. Gibbs simply didn’t know the rule and it cost him 15 yards. That mistake alone probably didn’t cost the Redskins the game since I am on board with the idea that Lindell would have made the field goal anyway. His 36-yarder was right down the middle and would have been good from 55 or 60. It is just another embarrassing coaching decision in a year filled with them.

People want to blame Gibbs for the bad play-calling. Some of it is him, but most of it is Al Saunders. I don’t think people realize that Saunders calls at least 75% of the plays. So to put all the blame on Gibbs is ridiculous. It was Saunders who called all those passing plays at the goal line. It was Saunders who tried running the clock out with 5-and-a-half minutes still remaining. You can only blame Gibbs for so much.

However, the second straight timeout is inexcusable. How does Gibbs not know the rule? It’s not like that’s a new rule. You haven’t been able to call consecutive timeouts for a while now. My friend was watching the game with his 10-year old cousin. Even the 10-year old knew you couldn’t do that. When he plays Madden ’08, the game doesn’t allow him to call two consecutive timeouts. If he knows it, Gibbs should know it. The head coach of a football team has a million tasks, duties and responsibilities. Not just on the field, but off it as well. Knowing the rulebook is one of the top priorities. Knowing all the rules is an absolute must for all NFL coaches. There are no excuses for not knowing one.

It was a fitting end to a miserable day at FedEx Field. Despite the loss, the Redskins organization did a very classy job honoring Sean Taylor. The five-minute tribute video at the stadium was stellar. Whoever put that together deserves a major promotion. There were very few dry eyes in the press box after that was over (and I can imagine there weren’t many in the crowd either). As you might have assumed, the atmosphere at the stadium was very unusual. Not a lot of drinking or tailgating. No real yelling in the parking lot. The crowd never really got that loud during the game. Pretty much as everyone expected. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight.

Somehow, the Redskins are still only one game out of a playoff spot. How that is possible, I can’t tell you. The Skins still own tiebreakers over Arizona and Detroit. They have a chance to own tiebreakers over Minnesota and Chicago. They can still very easily play themselves into the final playoff spot. They will most likely have to win out, but in the NFC, 8-8 may be good enough for the wild card.

The Bears come in with their own problems. They are 5-7, just like the Redskins. They suffered a heart-breaking and agonizing defeat last week, just like the Redskins. They recently benched Adam Archuleta and put him on special teams…just like the Redskins.

We all know that Devin Hester is the only weapon that the Bears have. He has 10 return touchdowns for the Bears in less than two seasons, by far the most in the NFL during that time. He’s also lost 13 fumbles in that same span (something the media never really brings up). Again, that’s the most in the NFL during that time. I don’t really mind the Redskins challenging him as long as they angle the kicks to the sideline. You cannot let him field the ball in between the hashmarks. I will stand by my previous statements about Hester. Enjoy him while you can. Returners in the NFL have very short career-spans. For every Brian Mitchell and Eric Metcalf, there are at least twenty Michael Lewises. Has anyone seen Dante Hall recently?

As long as the Redskins are able to neutralize Hester, they should have no problems with the Bears offense. Rex Grossman is back behind center. There is no more debate about “Good Rex” and “Bad Rex”. Good Rex no longer exists. Now it’s just “Bad Rex”, “Slightly Better Than Eli Manning Rex” and “Abysmally Awful Rex”. The two-headed monster of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson at running back is no more. Jones currently plays for one of the New Jersey teams and Benson is out for the season with an injury (real shocker there…who couldn’t have seen that coming). Now the Bears are reliant on Adrian Peterson (no, not that Adrian Peterson…the Redskins will see him in two weeks). The best offensive weapons may be the tight ends Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen. And it’s not like either one of them is going to be mistaken for Antonio Gates.

The Bears defense, once the pride of the team, is rapidly getting old and suffering from numerous injuries. The secondary, especially deep down field, is very vulnerable. If that’s not enough, the Bears have allowed opposing running backs to crack the 100-yard mark in eight straight games. Brian Urlacher, once the most feared linebacker in the NFC, is showing just how average he is now that he doesn’t have stud defensive tackles to keep blockers off of him.

So let’s see…the Bears have an aging defense, an anemic offense and decent special teams. Basically, the Redskins are facing the NFC’s version of the Baltimore Ravens. Add in a cold night in Washington, and that should be enough to ensure that “Bad Rex” rears his head and the Bears playoff hopes come to an official end. That would mean the Redskins would still be alive in the conference. But if they come out flat and lose, please don’t blame it on Sean.

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Sean Taylor, 1983-2007



I stare at my computer, knowing I have to write something. It’s been a long week, and I need to put something on paper. Something besides the obvious. But nothing seems to sound right. So, if you’ll indulge me, I’ll start with the basics.

Sean Taylor was a good person, a loving father and a terrific football player. On the field, he was the best safety in the NFL. In this, his fourth season, he was finally showing all the traits that all free safeties need. No longer was he just some freelancer looking to put the big hit on a defenseless receiver. He was starting to excel in covering the entire field. He was becoming a great pseudo-linebacker; someone who could easily come up in the box and play the run. He was starting to be the very definition of the safety position: a safety net. As the last line of defense, he would cover up other players’ mistakes. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve sat at FedEx Field this season and watched LaRon Landry or Carlos Rogers or one of the linebackers completely blow a coverage on the tight end or slot receiver, only to have Taylor make up so much ground and save the Redskins from a big play. After two seasons of just wanting to hit people, in the past year and half, Taylor had become the most complete safety in the NFL. He accomplished all that without losing any of his intimidation. If you decided to send a receiver towards him, that receiver was going to get decked. Game-planning for the Redskins defense started with one simple rule: Don’t go over the middle.

Furthermore, Taylor was becoming a team leader. He was no longer the young kid in the middle of veterans. In a secondary with a three-year player and a rookie, Taylor was more mentor than anything else. He was closer to Gregg Williams than any other player on the team and basically played the role of Williams on the field. He would stay late for film sessions, stay late during practices and stay after the games in the locker room, win or lose.

He was a once in a generation talent at safety. In college, I called play-by-play for Maryland football at WMUC, the student radio station. I had the good fortune to cover Shawne Merriman for a couple of seasons. For those who have never been to Byrd Stadium, all media members sit in Tyser Tower on the South side of the field. All television and radio sit on the fourth floor, which is several stories above the action. As a play-by-play guy, from all the way up on the fourth floor, it was very tough to see numbers most of the time. Luckily, I knew whenever Merriman made a play. All you would see was this blur, going faster and harder than anyone else on the field. You didn’t need to look for a number or wait for the pile to be uncovered. You knew it was Merriman because he was just so much better than anyone else on the team. I figured that this was par for the course in covering college athletics. Because there can sometimes be so much talent discrepancy on each team, there is always going to be a player or two who move at different speeds than everyone else. In the NFL, it’s much more difficult. Everyone moves at the same speed. If a player isn’t capable of doing so, he never makes the league to begin with. But over the last few years, when I attended Redskins games as a fan or member of the media, I had flashbacks to my days in Tyser Tower. Sometimes, all I would be able to see was a blur. I didn’t have to wait for the pile to be sorted out. I didn’t have to wait to see the numbers. I knew who was responsible for making the play. It was Sean Taylor. Over and over and over again. Even in the NFL, he moved at speeds and with such force that it could have only been him.

Sean Taylor the father is one aspect of his life I can’t vouch for. You will just have to take it on face value from all the quotes this week. From Williams and Joe Gibbs, to Clinton Portis and Santana Moss, to Derrick Dockery and Antonio Pierce, to Antrel Rolle and Jeremy Shockey, to Mike Tomlin and Herm Edwards, everyone to a man, has said what an outstanding father Taylor was. Go find me one person who has said otherwise. As an employee at Comcast Sportsnet, I have access to mountains of archived tape and photos. Some of the people at the station uncovered rolls and rolls of film from this past training camp with terrific shots of Taylor and his daughter playing together at Redskins Park. You can see it in his eyes. She was the only thing that really, truly mattered to Sean. I wish that I, and I wish the station, had the ability and time to share that film and those photographs with you. That will always be my wish I guess.

Sean Taylor being a good father went hand in hand with him being a great person. Something that is being almost completely ignored about that tragic Monday morning was the fact that Taylor was shot and killed while trying to protect his daughter and girlfriend. Taylor put his career, and his life, on the line to defend his family. If that’s not the true definition of a safety, I don’t know what is. The fact that he would sacrifice his life to protect two others makes him a man amongst men in my book. It makes him a real life hero and outweighs and outshines anything he ever did on the football field.

Taylor also spent hours upon hours with kids and fans. After training camp, after practices, at schools, at functions, at team sanctioned events and at non-team sanctioned events, Taylor spent more time with young fans than most players do around the league. He may not have talked to the media much, but he certainly talked to his fans. As seriously as he took football, he realized that it was just a game, and he knew the only thing making the NFL relevant and football important were the fans themselves. Very few players ever understand that.

On a personal level, I did not know him. I was only in contact with him once. For the Redskins game this year against the Cardinals, I was on the field less than an hour before kickoff. It was very hot and I decided to go up to the press box early. We crossed paths in the tunnel as he was on his way out for warm-ups. I gave him a nod with a simple “go get ‘em”. He gave me a half-smile, a nod and a “yep”. That was it. No it wasn’t much, but I wasn’t exactly looking to have a conversation with him. I was doing my job and he was about to go do his. But as I covered the Redskins, both at training camp and at games, I saw Taylor interact with plenty of people outside of the media. People he felt comfortable with. I did get a chance to see Sean Taylor the person. And he was certainly someone who was likable, honest and good natured.

Now, for the part of this piece I’ve been dreading. I was hoping to write something just about Sean Taylor. Unfortunately, there has been so much bad and negative press about him the past week that I can’t let it go without rebuttal. Taylor is not here to argue for himself anymore, nor would he have argued if he was still alive. Maybe this should be another post, but I really don’t want to keep writing about death, sorrow and grief more than I have to. So for that, I apologize.

Was Taylor a perfect person? No. We all knew the answer to that. He had at least one DUI on his record (maybe another one depending on who you listen to). The assault charges brought against him two years ago were mostly false. The prosecutor in that case wanted to further his moonlighting career as a DJ and thought prosecuting a high profile subject would help. The case only got more absurd from there. The chargers were so blatantly false, that they boarded on slander. However, Taylor certainly could have handled that situation much better than he did. The attention he received during that trial my not have been fair, but he did bring some of it on himself.

On this page, I make poke fun at athletes like Jamal and Ray Lewis. Athletes like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. Athletes that get in trouble with the law or with their respective leagues. I don’t root for players who do the kind of crap they do. In D.C. this past baseball season, Dmitri Young became a fan favorite at Nationals games. I was sickened to see this. This was a man who nearly beat his girlfriend to death and had problems with alcohol. And this was a guy that people wanted to see succeed? I didn’t get it. Heck, I really don’t root for Mike Sellers, who has multiple arrests for drug related incidents. I want him to do well for the Redskins sake, but I cringe a little when he finds his way into the end zone and begins celebrating.

Athletes who have problems, and refuse to change (like many of the names above) are the players that I make fun of and attack. Everyone deserves a second chance, but I don’t believe in giving people more than that. Sean Taylor made a mistake. And then he turned his life around. That’s why this isn’t hypocrisy. There are many, whether they are athletes or entertainers, who grow up in impoverished areas, roll with a certain group, and then keep that group around them when they start to make large sums of money. In almost every case, the person who sticks with their old “crew” will end up in trouble because of the people around him. And so few of these celebrities are willing to get rid of their old friends. Taylor did that. He realized he had a problem, fixed it, and was a model citizen ever since his issues in Miami a couple of years ago. That’s why I rooted for Sean Taylor and that’s why I’ll defend him.

Futhermore, it is absolutely disgusting to see Taylor’s problems in the middle of every obituary this week. There is a time and a place to bring that stuff up, and an obituary is the last place for it to appear. The sports writers who came up with these obituaries are the same writers who Taylor refused to talk to. With Taylor dead, they held a grudge and wanted the last say. You never hear about Brett Favre’s pain-killer addiction. You never hear about Tom Brady’s DWI citation at Michigan. Just because these athletes throw a smile and a couple of lines at the cameras, they get a free pass. For no other reason than spite have Taylor’s issues come up repeatedly throughout the week. This is why journalists continue to be, in poll after poll, the second least liked profession after lawyers. On top of all that, after Taylor’s sudden death, journalists from around the country started speculating that this wasn’t a random crime: This was someone in Taylor’s crew that got mad at him. This was someone in a rival gang that wanted revenge. This was a drug deal gone wrong. This couldn’t just be random violence. Taylor had to be at fault here too. Why else would he sleep with a machete under the bed?

From all accounts from the actual police (not the reporters playing the role of policemen), this was completely random. The suspects arrested did not know Taylor, except for the fact he was rich. They wanted to rob his house. They thought he wasn’t home. They weren’t planning on killing him. No drug deal. No gang warfare. Nothing other than Taylor being rich and at the wrong place at the wrong time. Nothing other than Taylor being completely innocent in this tragedy. As usual, that isn’t good enough for the media, who look to vilify the innocent and make innocent the villains.

And the reason that Taylor had a machete under his bed was because he wasn’t allowed to have a gun. Remember, because of that ATV incident, Taylor was on probation, and being in possession of a firearm would be a big violation. Hundreds of thousands of people in this country sleep with handguns in their bedroom dressers. Or shotguns in their closets. No one thinks this is weird. They own guns for a sense of protection, whether real, perceived or completely imaginary. Rich people, poor people, people from bad and good neighborhoods, people from the city and people from the middle of nowhere all own guns and keep them in their bedrooms at night to feel safer. Miami-Dade County took that right away from Taylor. Taylor couldn’t have a gun, so he figured that he’d at least have some protection, and he chose to sleep with a machete in the bedroom. Considering what happened, can you blame him? His house had been burglarized a week before the shooting, he couldn’t own a gun and he wanted to protect his family. Considering those facts, is sleeping with a machete under the bed strange? Not really. Miami-Dade made Taylor bring a knife to a gun-fight, and it cost him his life.

Now to my favorite target: ESPN. I’ve complained about their programming for years. Even in my most bitter commentary, there’s always been an element of sarcasm to what I’ve said. Not any more. They should be embarrassed how they covered this story. When I first heard that Taylor was shot Monday morning, it was around 11 am. I would have turned to Comcast Sportsnet, but I knew that there was no way our station would be on-air that early. As a small cable station, we simply couldn’t get enough people to the studio to put on a news show until 2 or 3 pm at the earliest (which is actually when we started to do live coverage of the incident). I figured ESPN, with their vast inventory of people and money, would be keeping an eye on it. So on came ESPN. There was no news what so ever. No break-ins. No special ESPN News coverage. Not even a graphic in the lower part of your screen. Absolutely nothing. Linda Cohn was on-air yapping on the 10th repeat of SportsCenter. The biggest story of the NFL season, and nary a peep from ESPN. And they’ve continued to basically ignore the story ever since. They didn’t break in to coverage when Taylor died Tuesday. They haven’t sent reporters to Redskins practices as of yet. They didn’t send anyone to Miami for two days. They didn’t even send a camera man to get tape. They’ve been getting feeds from WJLA and WTTG. The biggest sports network in the world didn’t send one person to cover this story on site for 48 hours and were completely reliant on local stations for video.

I half-joked on Tuesday that if Tom Brady caught a cold, or Brett Favre banged his elbow, ESPN would cover it non-stop (and in a scary bit of irony, Favre actually hurt his elbow only two days later, and ESPN hasn’t stopped talking about it since). From their obsessive coverage of everything McNabb-Owens related, to their ridiculous coverage of everything New England, to their minute-by-minute focus on the Yankees this offseason, ESPN paid so much attention to stories that didn’t exist and didn’t matter, and paid very little to a story of life and death. And when they actually reported on the story, they got most of their facts wrong and painted Taylor as a villain.

Luckily, established writers from across the nation have ripped ESPN to shreds. Including Mike Wilbon and Dan Le Batard, two writers who also collect checks from ESPN. The cable ratings back this up. The rating numbers (the only thing ESPN really pays attention to) show how bad ESPN botched this coverage. In the D.C.-Baltimore-Richmond area, Comcast Sportnet crushed ESPN in the ratings from Monday thru Thursday. This had never happened before. This should never happen. I don’t bring this point up because I work at CSN. I’m certainly not bragging. I really don’t care what we do in the ratings. I don’t see an extra dime in my paycheck if the station does well. I’m working there because it’s my foot in the door. All this shows is that ESPN completely failed on multiple levels because they didn’t want to waste time on Taylor, but instead wanted to spend more time talking about the Cowboys or Patriots or Yankees. They vilified Taylor because it was convenient and it would make the story easier to push under the rug. The only problem for ESPN is the rest of the national media called the big boys on it, and ESPN looks terrible because of this. For my part, and I will swear right here and right now, unless a Redskins game or Maryland game is on ESPN, I will not watch any of their networks for a very long time. They have lost themselves a viewer, and I can guarantee you, I’m not the only Redskins fan who will no longer watch ESPN.

As far as the Redskins are concerned, it’s hard to say what will happen. I can’t recall the last time an NFL team lost a huge star in the middle of the season. I’m not sure this type of situation has ever happened. They could come out tomorrow and go through the motions and get blasted by the Bills. Or, they could use all that pent up emotion and ride it to a big win with the Bills playing the unwitting role of someone stepping into a hornets nest. Either way, it is going to be a very strange game this Sunday. It is going to be very strange at FedEx Field for the rest of the season. It may not be normal again for some time. I wouldn’t put the magnitude of this tragedy at Len Bias levels (to which it has been compared by some) but it isn’t far behind. This is a death that the Redskins and their fans will be feeling for a very, very long time. To say that the rest of the games this season are meaningless is an understatement. And say what you want about Joe Gibbs, but I think he’s the perfect person to lead a team in this situation.

I use this page as a way to put my ideas out there. I know a lot of people don’t read it. I know a lot of people don’t care what I think. I know this page has no bearing on anything important. I use it to joke around and talk about sports. But let’s take a second here to dive into religion. If I offend any of you, then I’m sorry ahead of time.

I’m not a very religious person. I’d like to think that I do believe in a higher power, but it isn’t easy sometimes. It isn’t easy to believe in a God that allows thousands of innocent children to starve every day. It isn’t easy to believe in a God that allows millions to parish every year in natural disasters and wars. It isn’t easy to believe in a God that allows people like Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin and Pol Pot come to power and have complete control over millions of lives. It isn’t easy to believe in a God that allows a madman to kill 12 million people in less than a decade.

So maybe that’s why I can’t understand how people can say that Sean Taylor is in a better place. How is that possible? This was a man who was entering the prime of his career and the prime of his life. He was about to marry his girlfriend and he had a young daughter that was going to bring him years of joy. How could life get any better? How could Sean possibly be in a better place than his place here on Earth? And for those who say it’s “God’s plan”, I don’t buy that either. What possible good could come out of taking a young man’s life? What possible good could come out of taking a father away from his little daughter? From taking a brother and friend away from his teammates? From taking an icon away from an incredibly loyal fan base? What kind of plan is that? I could live to be a thousand years old, and I would never understand it.

I do know this, if there is a God and heaven and everything else you hear about in the spiritual books, then Sean definitely earned himself a trip up there. The good he did in this world outweighed the bad a hundred times over. He brought joy to the large Redskins fan base for four years. He brought a good deal of spirit and energy into the lives of his teammates and coaches. He helped bring a young girl into the world. So if you are a Redskins fan who is in despair, please don’t be. His daughter, girlfriend and teammates will see him again one day in heaven. You will too. Just don’t go over the middle.