Maryland Basketball: Fool In The Rotation

Florida State Seminoles (14-11, 3-7) at
Maryland Terrapins (16-9, 6-4)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

It’s only been twice, and Maryland has had the slight edge in the series recently, but I’m already sick of losing to those bunch of scrubs. Great time for the Terps to play their worst game in a month. Dook really didn’t do anything special. In fact, they really didn’t win the game. Maryland just handed it to them. Gee, maybe after the 20th time White Stiff spots up from the top of the key, someone should go guard him. May want to look into doing that next time. For every off-balance shot Greivis Vasquez made, he missed two others. I don’t care if had 20-plus points. He cost Maryland several key possessions. And how in the world does Dave Neal manage to outscore both Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne? Dook didn’t force Maryland into playing badly. Maryland forced Maryland into playing badly. Way too many wild shots, missed open looks and failure to guard the perimeter. Any ACC team would have beaten Maryland on Wednesday. Well, maybe not Virginia.

Ok, that’s off my chest. Other than the recent poor performance, which I will overlook considering the overall play of the past five weeks, there is a disturbing that’s starting to emerge. The lack of bench production is starting to catch up to Maryland. There are plenty of guys who come off the bench. It’s not like Gary has really shortened his rotation any. It’s just that most of the freshmen have gone from giving 10-12 solid minutes to giving 10-12 minutes. The freshmen have just become bodies that Gary can use when the starters need a blow.

The bench scored 11 points against Dook, which is actually better than they had been doing the last several games. The Terps reserves scored 4 points against Virginia, 12 against Georgia Tech, 5 against Boston College and 5 against NC State. That’s an average of 7.4 points from the bench over the course of the last 5 games. Not good.

It’s great to see most of Maryland’s starters scoring double-digits game after game. Obviously you’d rather have your starters have great games than the players on the bench. But ultimately, Maryland is going to need 12-17 points of production from their bench if they are going to succeed down the stretch. It’s great to see that Neal, Cliff Tucker and Adrian Bowie are still getting a decent amount of playing time in the conference schedule. They just have to do something with it. Otherwise, Vasquez and Gist are going to continue playing at least 35 minutes a game. And we’ve seen what happens when teams go into March with a seven-man rotation (just ask the Dookies). I think we saw some of that fatigue from the Terps in the last game. Maryland had their opportunities after they cut the Nerds’ lead to two in the second half. But the players were tired, their legs were dead and the open jump shots didn’t fall.

The problem for Maryland is they can’t fool around in the next six games if they hope to go the NCAA tournament. The Terps finish with two home games against FSU and Virginia Tech, two road games against Miami and Wake, a home game against Clemson and road contest at dismal Virginia. Normally, over a weak stretch like the one Maryland has, this would be the perfect time to experiment with some of the guys on the bench to see if they have what it takes come March. But this is where the Ohio and American losses really hurt Maryland. Those losses no longer damage Maryland’s RPI (Ohio is comfortably in the Top 100 and American is in first place in the Patriot League). However, those two losses have already rung Maryland’s total up to nine and we’re only midway through February. Maryland, at least in my mind, needs to win four of the next six games and an ACC tournament game to make the real tournament. That would put Maryland at 21-12, and with the Terps’ RPI and strength of schedule, that should be good enough. But Gary can’t afford to fool around the rotation at this point because he’s facing a bunch of must win games.

That brings us to Florida State for the first time this season (Again, I will point out how much I hate the expansion era schedule. Maryland has yet to play FSU, Miami and Clemson, and they’re more than halfway through their conference slate. Bring back the round-robin please). Leonard Hamilton has once again taken a team with some talent and molded them into a team that ranks in the bottom third of just about every statistical category, and in the bottom third of the ACC standings. FSU has lost to Cleveland State (not as horrible as they usually are) and two pathetic Big East schools in Providence and South Florida. No one should lose to South Florida (tough break Boeheim, your season is over). Their three ACC wins came at Georgia Tech (by two), at Miami and home against Virginia (also by two). Meanwhile, they’ve had double-digit losses to Carolina, Dook (in a game that was very close for about 38 minutes) and Clemson as you might expect. But they also have lopsided losses against Virginia Tech and TWICE against Wake. Eeesh (By the way, I just noticed I used a ton of parentheses in that last paragraph. Here’s another one for you).

FSU will be playing shorthanded on Saturday since our old friend from Isaiah Swann from Germantown tore his ACL last week and is done for his college career. They should also be playing further shorthanded, but the ACC decided not to suspend Ryan Reid for the punch he threw against Chas McFarland of Wake Forest on Thursday. While his five points and four rebounds probably would not have been missed, he does play 22 minutes a game and is a big body on a team filled with shooting guards and small forwards. That leaves three other players of note: Toney Douglass, Jason Rich and Uche Echefu. Echefu is a decent rebounder and gets most of his 10 points off putbacks. But he is foul prone and will have a tough time stopping both Gist and Boom inside even with the presence of Reid. Toney Douglass is a terrific scorer who can create his own shot on the perimeter or on the blowby. Douglass is one of those guys who is “going to get his”, so Maryland shouldn’t try anything fancy by doubling him. He is also one of those guys who lights up Maryland every season. Let him have his 20 points and contain the rest of the team. The X-factor is Rich. If he gets going, and he does shoot 44%, then the Seminoles have two guys who can score, and that may open up other opportunities for guys like Ralph Mims. That’s when FSU becomes dangerous. Rich and Douglass scored 53 of the Noles’ 70 points against Wake. But Wake stopped everyone else and won. So guard Douglass straight up, don’t risk doubling up and allowing Rich to get hot.

If there was ever a game to press, this is the one. FSU averages 16 turnovers a game and even though Douglass and Rich are both scorers, neither of them are real comfortable taking the ball up court and getting the offense set. The press worked wonders against a similar NC State team in the second half. I’d try it again.

This is the most important game for Maryland so far. Bigger than the NC State game which they had to win before traveling to the foul depths of Durham. The Terps cannot afford to lose these next two home games and cannot afford to have a losing streak at this point of the season. This is still a young team with only one true senior. Momentum is a tricky thing to hold on to, especially with a young team. They managed to recover nicely from the first Dook loss, and they’re going to have to do it again. This is a very beatable team that is playing on the road and basically playing out of the string of their schedule. The Terps need to show that the loss to Dook was only a bump in the road and not the end of it.

Maryland 81
Florida State 72

Elsewhere in the ACC…

SATURDAY
Virginia Tech at North Carolina
Will any healthy player on UNC please stand up. If you can. Assuming you don’t have a leg injury. Other than Tyler Hansbrough, the rest of their starting lineup is playing on a game-to-game basis. It shouldn’t matter here, but until Carolina gets healthy, they’re going to be in a lot of close games.
Pick: North Carolina 83, Virginia Tech 76

Clemson at NC State
Even though I picked Clemson to beat Georgia Tech the other night, I was kind of hoping we’d start seeing that patented Tigers collapse. Clemson disappointed. They handled Tech pretty easily. Look, if you gander at the rest of Clemson’s schedule, there is absolutely no way they should lose more than three games until the beginning of the NCAA tournament. Which they should be a part of. This one, however, reeks of a close loss.
Pick: NC State 74, Clemson 71

SUNDAY
Virginia at Boston College
For two teams playing out the string, I guess I’ll stay clear of Virginia on the road. In fact, I’ll stay clear of Virginia anywhere at this point.
Pick: Boston College 78, Virginia 64

Miami at Georgia Tech
I keep hearing that Miami has a good chance to make the tournament. How exactly? Yes, the 16-7 record looks good on paper. Yes, the RPI in the top 50 is good too. However, they’re 3-6 in the conference and currently reside in 10th place. And I would bet on them not moving too much higher in the standings. No way does a 10th place team from any conference make the tournament.
Pick: Georgia Tech 80, Miami 68

Duke at Wake Forest
Wait, Duke has to play a road game? I don’t believe it. I know they have to travel to Maryland and UNC every year, but other than that they get to stay at home, right? Wake has been a good story so far. 15-8 far exceeds expectations considering what the program went through in the offseason. I still don’t think they’ll make the tournament with their remaining schedule. But I’m rooting for them.
Pick: Duke 85, Wake Forest 78