The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/18/08

Here’s the weekly Top 25, complete with the tournament bids below.

1. Memphis (25-0), LW – 1: Very close win against UAB almost caused them to fall. Poised to fall with a loss at home to Tennessee.
2. Tennessee (23-2), LW – 2: For the first time in awhile, my top 2 are the same as the major polls. Vols are also poised to fall depending on Saturday’s result.
3. North Carolina (24-2), LW – 5: Remember, they’re doing this with their two point guards out of the lineup and with several other guys playing hurt.
4. Kansas (24-2), LW – 2: Hard to blame them for a loss at Texas. Probably won’t lose more than four times before the NCAA’s.
5. UCLA (22-3), LW – 6: Got revenge for their earlier loss to USC. This team is starting to get healthy and starting to look dangerous.
6. Texas (21-4), LW – 15: Now I believe in the Longhorns. An impressive week for Texas that came complete with a home win against Kansas and a tough road win at Baylor.
7. Duke (22-2), LW – 4: Overdue for a loss considering that that they’ve still yet to play well for an entire 40 minutes. Not all that surprised that it happened at Wake.
8. Vanderbilt (22-4), LW – 10: Only four losses (all on the road) and a historic blowout of Kentucky (the ‘Cats had 11 points at halftime). They are talented scoring inside and out. The Commodores defense is far above average. So why are they as low as 20 in the AP polls?
9. Stanford (21-4), LW – 7: Grinding out a win at Arizona is more important to me than losing a close trap game at Arizona State. NO ONE wants to face the Lopez twins next month.
10. Xavier (21-4), LW – 13: Hesitant to put Butler in the top 10, so the Musketeers jump them instead. I know, not the best of reasons.
11. Butler (24-2), LW – 12: Of all people, I should be sold on the Bulldogs (considering what they did to Maryland last season). However, I have a hard time putting them this high despite their gaudy record.
12. Washington State (20-5), LW – 14: Two easy wins against the Oregon schools. Considering one of those “easy w’s” came at MacArthur Court, they get a bump in the rankings.
13. Connecticut (20-5), LW – 17: Now comes the “Big East Conglomerate”. These three teams are interchangeable at the time being. I’m ranking them now based on how they’ve played lately, not what their overall profile is.
14. Louisville (20-6), LW – NR: The team that I picked to win the Big East is finally playing like it. Even though they are a full game worse than Georgetown, they just beat the Hoyas so they go ahead.
15. Georgetown (20-4), LW – 11: Starting to get exposed for the frauds they are. If it wasn’t for Bob Donoto and Karl Hess, they would have lost twice last week.
16. Texas A&M (21-5), LW – 8: As soon as I put A&M in the top 10, they fall at home to Oklahoma State. That would be their second bad loss of the season, so even though I like the Aggies, they have to fall hard.
17. Purdue (21-5), LW – 22: Now it’s time for the “Big 10 Conglomerate”. It’s basically a lesser version of the one above it from the Big East. Purdue has only lost once in conference play, they’re ranked on top.
18. Wisconsin (21-4), LW – 25: This feels right for the Badgers. It was a good week for them with a win at Indiana.
19. Indiana (21-4), LW – 9: Falling in the rankings for what’s taking place on the court (home loss to Wisconsin) as much as what’s taking place off the court.
20. St. Mary’s (22-3), LW – 20: The Gaels hang out at #20 for the third straight week.
21. Drake (23-2), LW – 18: Finally have the opportunity to drop Drake behind St. Mary’s since the Gaels beat them a few months ago. But, congrats to the Bulldogs on clinching their conference crown.
22. Kansas State (18-6), LW – 16: Puzzling loss to Texas Tech followed by an equaling puzzling win (a 37-point win) over Missouri.
23. Notre Dame (19-5), LW – 21: I’m really indifferent to this team. They have a good record, but they’re not in the top tier of Big East schools.
24. Clemson (19-6), LW – NR: Road win at NC State proves to me that this Clemson team won’t fade completely down the stretch. You hear that Ollie?
25. BYU (20-5), LW – NR: Starting to pull away from UNLV and New Mexico in the wild Mountain West.

Next Up: Houston, Marquette, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Mississippi State


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until before Selection Sunday. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (5): Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big 10 (5): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State
SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Wake Forest makes an appearance because they now have a quality win to go along with their decent record. Their RPI is catching up too. If they hold serve at home and win an ACC tournament game, they should get in. The Big East, Big 10 and Big XII are pretty self-explanatory at this point. If Syracuse has a big week, they may jump in next Monday. USC and Arizona State are going in for the Pac-10 at the moment, but Oregon is not. Likewise, Florida is in for the SEC while Ole Miss is not.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 (3): Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Houston, Memphis
Mountain West (3): BYU, New Mexico, UNLV

Notes: I keep seeing Dayton and UMass from the A-10 getting bids. Both are 5-6 in their conference, and there is no way a team from a non-BCS conference is getting bid with sub-.500 conference record. Houston has done enough outside and inside of CUSA to earn a spot at this point. New Mexico is knocking at the door, but they’ll need to make a run in the conference tournament to get a bid.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Boise State

Notes: These are usually the most competitive conferences because no one is sure how many bids they’re going to get. You could make a case for South Alabama in the Sun Belt. You could make a case for George Mason in the CAA. You could make a case for Creighton in the MVC and Utah State in the WAC. However, because the A-10, CUSA and MWC are all getting multiple bids (when in past years, they didn’t), the true mid-major conferences are going to get squeezed. Because of this, I only see the WCC as a two-bid league at this level of conference at this point and time.

SMALL
America East: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Cal State-Northridge
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: Oral Roberts