Monday, April 07, 2008

2008 NCAA Tournament: National Championship



Kansas Jayhawks (36-3) vs.
Memphis Tigers (38-1)
2008 National Championship Game
The Alomodome - San Antonio, TX


Time for the final college basketball post of the season. I’ve already discussed both these teams in depth during the last few weeks. They are eerily similar. From the athleticism, to the style of play, to the inability of either coach to win a game that matters, Kansas and Memphis are basically mirror-images of one another. It should make for a heck of a game. Hey, I'm just happy Florida isn't involved again. Let’s break it down by position.

Point Guard
Mario Chalmers vs. Derrick Rose
Chalmers is one of the five best point guards in the country. Problem is, Rose is one of the four that’s better. Rose can do anything Chalmers can do. He can shoot, drive and pass as well as anyone in the entire nation. Rose is also a couple of inches bigger, a little bit faster and a little more aggressive. Chalmers is the better of the two on the defensive end, but Rose matches up well against him. His speed, and the overall speed of Memphis, will help Rose triumph in the battle of superstar point guards.
Advantage: Memphis

Shooting Guard
Russell Robinson vs. Antonio Anderson
Robinson is a solid player for Kansas. On many teams he’d be a star. Unfortunately (or fortunately for Kansas fans), he’s the fourth or fifth option on a team with a wealth of weapons. Because he’s not Chalmers, Brandon Rush or Darrell Arthur, he’s immediately overlooked. Robinson fits in very well on this team. He knows his role, gets the ball to the playmakers and is happy racking up assists. Anderson, on the other hand, is a three-point sniper. He does not distribute the ball. He can’t create his own opportunities. He steals shots from Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts. His defense is lacking. He is the weakest of the Memphis starters.
Advantage: Kansas


Russell Robinson can be Kansas' X-factor. Antonio Anderson is usually no factor.

Small Forward
Brandon Rush vs. Chris Douglas-Roberts
Offensively, this is basically a toss up. Rush shoots a little better, but Douglas-Roberts is better attacking the basket. Both can carry their teams and both know when it’s not their night and have no problems playing a supporting role. Douglas-Roberts is the better athlete. He’s a little bit longer and a little bit faster. He’s also a little bit lazy. Rush is all hustle, which explains why he’s one of the best defenders for the Jayhawks. Along with Anderson, Douglas-Roberts is the weakest defender on Memphis’ starting five. I’m nitpicking here, but the defensive game tips the scale for Rush. Again, it’s basically a tossup.
Advantage: Kansas

Power Forward
Darnell Jackson vs. Robert Dozier
A disclaimer: Jackson, Dozier and the two players listed at “center” can all technically be listed as power forwards. I just had to pick two and go with it. Dozier is probably the real center for Memphis, but his body and his game are more tailored to the power forward position. Same with Jackson. Like Robinson, both of these players would be stars for other teams, but are third/fourth options on their current ones. The Kansas big men are expected to score and rebound like their guards. Plays and offensive sets are run specifically for them. The Memphis big men are expected to keep up with their guards and be under the hoop to clean up their messes. They get their points on second chances and bail out passes. Dozier is more of a scrapper than Jackson, which explains why Jackson’s stats are better. But when Dozier is off the court, Memphis is completely reliant on outside shots going in. They have little potential for 2nd chance points with Dozier sitting. Memphis is so much better with him on the floor. He’s quicker than any other power forward and fits in perfectly to Memphis’ run-and-gun offense. The quality of play goes down when Dozier is on the bench and Shawn Taggert is in the game. Jackson can be replaced without much drop off. Sasha Kaun can basically play the same role he does. Jackson is a bit more polished, but not as important to his team as Dozier is.
Advantage: Memphis


Robert Dozier has been impressive, but can he and Joey Dorsey stay out of foul trouble?

Center
Darrell Arthur vs. Joey Dorsey
Arthur is tougher for Kansas to replace than Jackson is. Arthur is a more-skilled version of Lonny Baxter. He is a more aggressive rebounder than either Jackson or Kaun and his toughness on both ends is needed on the floor for the Jayhawks. Memphis went 38-1 this season. In about half of those games, Dorsey was in foul trouble. He didn’t score in the win against UCLA. He is a space-filler, five fouls and 8-10 rebounds a game. Solid player, but not as good as Arthur.
Advantage: Kansas

Bench
If Sasha Kaun doesn’t contribute, then Sherron Collins steps up. If Collins doesn’t step up, then freshman goliath Cole Aldrich will chip in 8 points and 7 rebounds in a Final Four win against North Carolina. Kansas needed 21 points off the bench to beat UNC. Kansas goes to their bench, expects production and usually gets it. Memphis’ bench is used to give their starters a breather. Other than Taggert and occasionally Willie Kemp, the Memphis bench is used to give spells to the starters who go up and down the court at a hectic pace all game. For Memphis, their bench is just a bunch of bodies. Kansas relies and gets more relief from their depth.
Advantage: Kansas

Coaching
Hard to say here. I’ve never been a big fan of either Bill Self or John Calipari. I think the coach that gets out of their teams’ way the best will probably have more success. Calipari does that slightly better than Self. Plus, Self had that deer in headlights look when Carolina almost stormed all the way back from a 28-points deficit. Calipari has a little more postseason experience, and has his team playing with an “us against the world” and “no one believes in us” mentality despite the fact that everyone has been talking about Memphis since the beginning of the season and the fact the Tigers have the best record in the nation. So I guess Calipari is slightly better at brainwashing his players too.
Advantage: Memphis

Overall, I think that Kansas has a small advantage in this game. We haven’t talked about free throw shooting yet (and yes, I’m well aware that Memphis is shooting well in the tournament…I think CBS has mentioned that every two minutes). Kansas has shot well from the line all season. They also played a tougher schedule and their players have a bit more experience dealing with the spotlight. I’ve regretted not picking the Jayhawks to win the whole thing since the opening weekend. Rock, chalk, Jayhawk!
Pick: Kansas 82, Memphis 76

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