2008 NCAA Tournament: Final Four

After going 3-1 for the regional finals, the record improved to 46-14. This is where I've trouble in the past, so let's see if I can reverse the trend

FINAL FOUR
The Alomodome
San Antonio, TX



UCLA Bruins (35-3, #1 seed in West Region) vs.
Memphis Tigers (37-1, #1 seed in South Region)

So, for the first time in the modern tournament’s history, we have four number one seeds in the Final Four. That’s actually pretty cool. I love the upsets early in the tournament, but if the NCAA is going to crown a national champion, it’s much better if the best teams are still playing on the first weekend in April. I thought a Final Four with four number one seeds was about as likely as a number one seed losing in the first round. But let’s not look a gift horse in the mouth.

The last time these two teams hooked up this late in the season was the 2006 West Regional Final. UCLA prevailed by a final score of 50-45. Yes, the game was as ugly as the score would indicate. It was certainly one of the worst regional finals in recent memory. That game is usually forgotten because of UCLA’s preceding game (the miracle comeback against Gonzaga), George Mason’s run and Florida’s dominance. So it’s easy for most fans to forget a clunker like that. However, Darren Collison, Luc-Richard Mbah-a-Moute, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Robert Dozier all played large roles in that game, so it’s definitely worth a revisit. Neither team shot above 35%. Memphis, which that season excelled at three-point shooting, shot terribly from behind the line. The teams combined for numerous turnovers. Again, very ugly.

That shouldn’t be the case this season. Both of the 2008 versions are much better, and much more complete than either of the teams in 2006. It is easy to point out what each team does well. UCLA is a balanced offensive team that can win with guard play or with Kevin Love leading the way. They play the best defense of any team West of the Rockies. They are deep, and don’t lose much at most positions when they go to the bench (more on that in a moment). Memphis is the most athletic team in the country. They have superior athletes at every single position. They can spread the floor better than anyone else. Everyone but Joey Dorsey is capable of shooting away from the basket. Everyone on the team is able to attack the basket with regularity and success. And their defense, while not the quality of UCLA’s, is underappreciated.

This game is the undercard of the Final Four for two reasons. The first is the obvious Roy Williams vs. Kansas mumbo-jumbo that CBS and ESPN have been spoon-feeding you for the last week. The second reason is that UNC and Kansas are the best two teams remaining in this tournament. Both of those teams have no obvious weakness. The strengths of UCLA and Memphis are obvious, but so are their weaknesses. UCLA, despite being deep at most positions, has no true backup for Darren Collison at point. Since Collison has battled injuries his entire career, it’s curious that Ben Howland hasn’t fixed this problem. UCLA also has a nasty habit of going into prolonged scoring slumps. These slumps aren’t as bad as they were in 2006, but they allow inferior teams to hang in ballgames much longer than they should. As for Memphis, they still can’t shoot free throws. Joey Dorsey is important, but foul prone. The Tigers outside is shooting is also less than desirable.

So while the two teams are certainly two of the best four in the nation, I don’t think either of them are in the class of UNC and Kansas. UCLA stands out to me in this matchup because they have had to scrap for a couple of wins and Memphis has not. Memphis has had a pretty easy time with Stanford (in the 2nd half) and Texas. Like I said before, the Tigers free throw shooting leaves a lot to be desired and will be their downfall. They haven’t been in enough close games where free throw discrepancy could hurt them. I thought it would happen against Texas and I was wrong. I think it will doom them against UCLA. Just a hunch. Plus, the Bruins have the advantage in terms of experience. This will be their third straight Final Four. Even with all their previous talent, Memphis hasn’t made one since the mid-80’s. Also, if there is any team that can handle John Calipari’s DDR offense, it’s the Bruins. This will be the best defensive team Memphis has played all season. Derrick Rose may have the advantage over Collison, but I like Josh Shipp continuing his hot play against Douglas-Roberts and I like Love inside against Dozier and Dorsey. Douglas-Roberts is a talent offensively, but he is the worst defender on Memphis. Shipp will be the X-factor, and along with poor Memphis free throw shooting, will lead the Bruins to the finals.
Pick: UCLA 79, Memphis 72




Kansas Jayhawks (35-3, #1 seed in Midwest Region) vs.
North Carolina Tar Heels (36-2, #1 seed in East Region)

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. After serving as Kansas head coach for 15 years, Roy Williams will finally meet his former team five years after moving on to Chapel Hill. It is a worthy story line, but it completely overshadows what could be the greatest National Semifinal game of all-time. Yes, of all-time.

The hype surrounding the Williams-Kansas reunion has been bad, but not as bad as I originally thought it would be. I think even the mainstream sports media has taken a look at both rosters and has thought about passing over the obvious story line to focus – can you believe it – on the game itself.

Since I have talked, at length, about North Carolina all season, I’m going to turn my attention to the Jayhawks. I haven’t really discussed Kansas much. Covering the ACC doesn’t allow me to analyze Kansas. The first three games against Portland State, UNLV and Villanova were all clear blowouts. None of those contests merited any type of discussion. The Regional Final against Davidson was intriguing (and turned into a pretty good game), but I was more interested in talking about Davidson then I was about Kansas. So here I am, in the Final Four, without talking about the majority of the Jayhawks roster in any real depth.

The first thing that strikes you about Kansas is how deep the roster is and how deep they go on the bench without a drop-off in talent. Nine Jayhawks get a lot of playing time, and they all contribute when they’re put on the floor. There are no “minutes-eaters” on the roster. No player who comes off the bench just to give the big men rests. No player who can be called “a five-fouls guy”. If you are on the floor in a royal blue uniform, you are expected to contribute points, rebounds and defense.

In the past, Kansas was accused of having too many scorers, but no go-to-guy down the stretch. And that statement was true. This season, Kansas still has that balanced scoring (no one over 15 per game, but seven players averaging at least seven points). However, the Jayhawks have two clutch scorers that Bill Self would want the ball in the hands of.

Brandon Rush is averaging 13 and 5 per game. He is the prototypical Kansas player. He is a 6-6 swingman who can shoot, drive and create all on his own. He’ll go inside for boards. He’ll hustle back to play defense. He can defend smaller guards outside, and can post-up power forwards inside. Following in the footsteps of Julian Wright, J.R. Giddens and Keith Langford, Rush is exactly the type of player you think of when you talk about Kansas.

Rush has help from guard Mario Chalmers. Chalmers is averaging 12.7 per with 4.5 assists. His a/t ratio is 2.3/1. That’s very, very good. Chalmers shoots an astonishing 52% from the floor. 52% is good for a forward, but it’s almost unheard of for a guard who does most of his shooting outside. His 47.6% 3-pt shooting makes him even that more dangerous on the perimeter. Rush loves to drive, but when he’s stopped on the way to the hoop, Chalmers is there for a kickout pass and easy bucket. Chalmers is option number two for Kansas, and may be their best clutch performer.


Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush deliver a deadly one-two punch for Kansas.

We’re not done yet. Option three for Kansas is Darrell Arthur. Arthur is Drew Gooden/Wayne Simien clone, except he’s usually healthy. He’s averaging 12.7 points per to go along with 6 rebounds a game. Half of his points usually come from second and third chance scoring. But he can also be the focal point for the offense. If Rush is driving and the defense collapses on him, and Chalmers is shadowed on the perimeter, then Rush or Chalmers will simply dump it inside for Arthur. Even though he’s only 6-8, Arthur has man-handled much bigger forwards this season underneath. He plays like a 6-11, 250 power forward, despite having the athleticism and speed of someone who is 6-6, 215.

Option four for Kansas is Darnell Jackson. Like Arthur, his is a 6-8 power forward that plays bigger but has the speed and quickness of a guard. Just in case a defense has figured out how to stop Rush, Chalmers and Arthur, Jackson averages 11 points a game and is the leading rebounder for Kansas with just a shade under 7 per. He is also their best shooter at 62%. In fact, the entire Kansas team shoots well. The team field goal percentage is 50.7%. There aren’t too many teams that can average one make per two shots.

Those are just some of Kansas’ weapons. I haven’t even mentioned Sherron Collins, Russell Robinson or Sasha Kaun, who has had a monster tournament so far. This team is scary good, and I’ve been kicking myself for the past three weeks for not picking them to win it all.

However, I’m going to stay with my original pick of North Carolina. While Rush is the team’s best player, the offense typically flows through Chalmers. Chalmers’ game is built on speed. With the exception of A.J. Abrams, everyone who’s guarded Chalmers has been slower than him. Everyone he’s guarded has been slower than him. That won’t be the case today. Ty Lawson is the faster point guard in the country. Chalmers is going to have a world of trouble dealing with that today. He’s not used to stopping faster guards, and he’s not used to being bullied on the perimeter from them either. Lawson could very well run circles around Chalmers today. That could be the difference.

Tyler Hansbrough is enough of a force inside to counter-act both Arthur and Jackson. Together, the two average about the same amount of points and boards that Hansbrough does by himself. Rush is going to be matchup problem for the Heels, but he’s also going to have problems guarding whoever he’s on. I’m not sure if he’ll be matched up on Wayne Ellington, or Danny Green off the bench, but other than having to guard Kevin Durant last season, Rush has not had to face great talent at small forward in the Big XII. Kansas just hasn’t played the level of competition that UNC has. UNC is used to facing teams built like Kansas. They just played Louisville and Washington State and had no trouble with either one. This game will be close, this game will be exciting and this game will be everything it was advertised to be. Including a win by Carolina.
Pick: North Carolina 84, Kansas 81