NFL Week 9: A Meadowlands Fright Fest

BOO! Happy Halloween everyone. The only thing scarier than a pants-less Mike Singletary has been my record. Even with another 8-5 week, I’m still struggling to hang around the 60% plateau. So far I’m 63-45. The 6-6-1 record against the spread wasn’t much better, but the overall spread record is still respectable (56-48-4). As always, do not use the following picks for gambling purposes of any kind.

SUNDAY

Houston Texans (3-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-4)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
So that’s three in a row for the Texans, huh? It’s good to see them get back to respectability after the hurricane fiasco. They also find themselves tied for 2nd place in the AFC South. True, they are four games out of first, but they are just as close as Indianapolis or Jacksonville.
Pick: Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3)(-8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-6)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
After scoring 23 points a game through their first seven contests, the Bucs managed only nine against a depleted Cowboys defense that was about to turn on their coaching staff. Thanks for nothing Tampa.
Pick: Buccaneers, Chiefs cover

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)(-7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-8)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Now we come to the part of the program featuring our two remaining winless teams. I said several weeks ago that I fully expected to Detroit to run the table and avoid winning a game the entire season. I did not expect the Bengals to do the same. I figured they’d sneak in three to four wins somewhere along the course of the season. Without Carson Palmer, there’s a real chance that Cincinnati joins the Lions in their quest for imperfection. By the way, after Jacksonville is done in Cincinnati, they get to play in Detroit. If they’re not 5-4 by Veterans Day, they’re in real trouble.
Pick: Jaguars

Detroit Lions (0-7) vs. Chicago Bears (4-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Solider Field
I still think Detroit will remain winless until next season (or even beyond that). However, they’ve been a bit frisky lately, so I think that line may be a bit high. I’m still not sold on the “first-place” Bears offense, even after their performance against Minnesota a couple of weeks ago (and I say “first-place” because the Bears would be last in the NFC East and 3rd place in a couple other stronger divisions).
Pick: Bears, Lions cover

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-4)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
This will be a big week, but tough week for Ravens fans everywhere. This is a game they should win. The team ahead of them in the division – the arch-rival Steelers – hit the road with a multitude of injuries against a good NFC East team. If everything plays out right for Baltimore, they could be tied with Pittsburgh on top of the North with the remaining game against the Steelers scheduled at home in the crime capital of the world. The problem for Ravens fans: they’ll have to root hard for the Redskins to beat Pittsburgh. I’ll enjoy that.
Pick: Browns

New York Jets (4-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-2)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I went against my better judgment and picked the Bills last week, even though I knew and said on this page that they’d probably lose to Miami. With their big game against New England coming up, I somewhat expect Buffalo to lose again this week, but I’m going to go against my better judgment again.
Pick: Bills

Arizona Cardinals (4-3)(-2.5) vs. St. Louis Rams (2-5)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
The Cardinals are slowly getting better during this 1:00 games away from home. They were pretty close to knocking off a good Panthers team last week. Since St. Louis is technically not the East Coast, Arizona’s usual bad performances East of the Mississippi doesn’t come in to play here.
Pick: Cardinals

Green Bay Packers (4-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-0)(-5)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
I’m very tempted to pick Green Bay since they’re coming off a bye week and the Titans are coming off an emotion win over Indianapolis. Plus, the Titans really aren’t that good. They shouldn’t be 7-0 and they shouldn’t be 8-0. I think Tennessee’s defense will be good enough to confuse Aaron Rodgers, but their first loss is coming some time in the next two weeks.
Pick: Titans

Miami Dolphins (3-4) vs. Denver Broncos (4-3)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
I don’t like picking against the Broncos at home. Especially against an offense that is up one week and down the next. However, given the Broncos inability to stop anyone, the line is correctly set at three since a last-second field goal will most likely be the difference in the game.
Pick: Broncos

Atlanta Falcons (4-3)(-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-5)
4:15 p.m. Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
The Falcons gave the Eagles a tough game last week and didn’t get a chance for the go-ahead score because of an outrageously bad call. They seem to be legit. However, given the East Coast teams’ inability to win out West, the lien is correctly set at three. A last-second field goal will most likely be the difference in the game.
Pick: Raiders

Dallas Cowboys (5-3) vs. New York Giants (6-1)(-8)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
I don’t care if the Cowboys can dust of Roger Staubach and start him at quarterback, I don’t think there is any way they beat the Giants. I’ve gotten the question this week that, as a Redskins fan, which team would I rather have lose? The answer is simple: Dallas. First, I hate Dallas more than most things in this world. Second, if Dallas loses, then it creates a little bit of separation in the NFC East (of course making the huge assumption that the Redskins take of business heading into their bye week). I’d rather have to deal with just the Giants in December than the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles. Hopefully the East gets top heavy soon.
Pick: Giants

Philadelphia Eagles (4-3)(-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
My quest to see Philadelphia never win another sporting title has failed. The world’s worst fan base doesn’t deserve anything except for misery. Fortunately, it wasn’t the Eagles that brought a championship to the city. That would have been really tough to swallow.
Pick: Eagles

New England Patriots (5-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
8:15 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
Didn’t this used to be an important game? I don’t anyone is taking either team seriously anymore…at least not for this season. Still, here’s hoping Peyton has one more signature moment before the Injury Bug and the Crypt Keeper comes and engulfs his entire team.
Pick: Colts

Bye Week: Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, San Francisco (I know, I’m disappointed that I couldn’t make any more jokes about Mike Singletary’s pants. I guess we’ll wait until next week)

The Redskins actually get to host a Monday Night game. Imagine that. It’s as if the NFL finally realized that allowing the team with the largest stadium and largest fan base to host an important night game would be a great showcase for the league. What took so long fellas?

Redskins at Lions: Portis' Pockets Straight, But What About His Knees?

Washington Redskins (5-2) at Detroit Lions (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
I’m going to try to keep this entry short and sweet. The Redskins took care of business against Cleveland. That’s about all you can say about that performance. They looked strictly average against an average team. Cleveland’s defense may be improving, but Derek Anderson showed the same inefficiency that he’s shown all of this season and most of last (despite putting up decent numbers). Braylon Edwards and the rest of Cleveland’s receivers dropped passes. No one opened any holes for Jamal Lewis. And unless Clinton Portis ran directly into Shaun Rogers, no one felt like getting in Portis’ way. I’d like to think the Redskins had a lot to do with Cleveland looking pedestrian, but I think most of it was the Browns doing. Even with all of that, the Redskins still needed two different goal line stands and a Phil Dawson kick to go wide right before getting a three point win over a team they should have dominated.

I’m not going to sit here and complain about a win. However, after a terrific start, this team has done nothing to impress me in a loss to the formerly pitiful Rams and a narrow win over the Browns. The passing game that was bold and daring in the first four wins, has reverted back to the 8-10 yard methodical attack. There’s nothing wrong with that if Jason Campbell can complete 65% of his passes. 14-23 for 167 yards against a bad secondary is not going to cut it. I don’t think the methodical passing game is going to be Campbell’s strength. He may be able to pick up a first down or two on each drive with some consistency. But eventually he’s going to misfire on a 3rd-and-5 or 3rd-and-6. You might as well take shots downfield on 1st and 2nd downs…especially with Portis running so well and defenses stacking the box. It would be great to see Jim Zorn take the same shots downfield that he did against New Orleans, Arizona and Dallas.

That brings me to Portis. This guy was quietly having a monster year. The secret is out. The whispers about Portis being a potential MVP candidate have already started. In the past week, most sports outlets finally grabbed a hold of the most recent rushing statistics and noticed that Portis was not only leading the league in rushing, but he was doing so by a wide margin. Portis has 818 yards in 7 games this season. He is averaging about five yards a carry. He is the only back in the league that is averaging more than 100 yards a game. If you put him on a 16-game pace based on his current production, his numbers would be eerily similar to Shaun Alexander’s numbers when he was the NFL MVP in 2005.

As great as that could be for the Redskins this season, it could have major ramifications for the future of the team and for Portis. The 27-year-old is now in his 7th NFL season and on pace for the most carries of his career. If the Redskins keep giving him the ball at this rate, he will rack up 373 carries by the end of the regular season. There are only two running backs in recent NFL history that have carried the ball 370 times or more in a season and not seen their production dip dramatically. Eric Dickerson (multiple times in the 1980’s) and LaDainian Tomlinson (in 2002) have managed this type of workload and continued their fine careers. Just about every other running back that has surpassed the 370 carry mark has become a shell of his former self. It happened to premier rushers like Earl Campbell and Walter Payton. It happened to young, promising backs like Christian Okoye and Barry Foster. It happened to backs that had a lot of miles on them, like Curtis Martin and Eddie George. It happened to backs didn’t have a lot of miles on them, like Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson. Both Anderson and Davis eclipsed the 370 plateau in 1998, and neither one played in the NFL after 2001. Davis managed just 17 games in the next three seasons while Anderson played in 21.

Portis is an old 27-years old. He has a lot of mileage on his tires. Only Tomlinson has rushed for more yardage in the last seven seasons. Portis also has a long history of lower body injuries, especially around his knees. A serious knee injury is usually the death knell of a good running back, and Portis has already managed to survive one. It’s incredible with the amount of hits Portis has already taken, that he could be on pace to rush the ball 373 times for more than 1,800 yards this season. It goes against NFL history and common sense. As well as Portis is doing, he might be doing too well. There needs to be games this season when Portis only carries the ball 15-17 times instead of the 23-25 times he has been averaging. The Redskins signed Alexander for a reason, they’ve given tons of money to Ladell Betts (who will be back from injury by the time Dallas comes to town) and they even invested in Rock Cartwright. None of those three scare opposing defenses the way Portis does, but Zorn is going to have to use all three of them a lot more than he has been. Even if Portis somehow makes it through this season somewhat unscathed (and he’s currently dealing with a hip injury as it is), if they keep running Portis like they are, it’s going to spell trouble for the Redskins and their running game in the not-to-distant future. I’m enjoying all the success Clinton is having, especially because his talents are leading to team victories. But I want to see him have that success for another three or four seasons…at the least. At this pace, he’s not going to. History says that Portis should already be on the way out of the NFL. He doesn’t need the Redskins coaches to help run him out of the league earlier than anticipated.

Portis leads the Redskins to lovely Detroit this week. The Skins will find themselves in front of thousands of fans dressed as empty seats on Sunday in Ford Field. As a franchise, the Lions have failed from the top to the bottom. From the president to the hot dog guy. From the coaches to the players. The fans (or lack thereof) are well aware of the situation. This is a team with a 0-6 record and seven straight losing seasons. I don’t think that streak is jeopardy anytime soon.

So the Skins are coming off a win. They are heavy favorites against a winless team. They are overwhelming expected to dominate a team that’s front office, coaching staff and roster has already gone through a few shake-ups during the season. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Doesn’t this seem like déjà vu? I swear people were saying the same thing before the Redskins game against St. Louis.

Here is why I’m not worried. If you ignored the statistics and looked at the Rams roster, you could see that there was a healthy amount of talent on it. Not a whole lot of talent, but certainly enough to avoid going winless and maybe even enough to reel off a couple of victories in a row. After beating Washington, the Rams embarrassed the Cowboys. With or without Tony Romo, a 20-point win against Dallas is pretty good. The Rams, if you can believe it, are only two games out of first place in the NFC West (which says more about the state of the West than the state of the Rams). You could tell, if you watched any of the Rams games, that this was a team that was still fighting and had enough talent to win a minimum of four or five games. And when they replaced their coach during their bye week, it was also a team that had a new sense of purpose and that was playing for more than just pride.

Detroit is not that team. The Lions are dead. I predicted here about three weeks ago, that the Lions would end the season at 0-16. I truly believe the Lions are that bad. During the ensuing weeks, I’ve seen nothing to change my opinion. In fact, it seems as if the Lions are going out of their way to become the first 0-16 in NFL history. Despite firing Matt Millen (which was long overdue), the Lions kept pathetic Ron Marinelli as their head coach. They traded a former first round draft pick and one of their more talented players to Dallas for draft picks. They’ve benched a decent quarterback by pretending he had an injury and placing him on IR. This is a team that got inside information on how to beat the Packers from KGB spy Comrade Brett Favre and still lost the game. By 23 points.

On paper, it appears as though the Lions have been in several close games. Even that is misleading. Of their six losses, only the 12-10 loss to Minnesota was really as close as it looked in the box score. In the other five games, Detroit found themselves in a three-score hole at some point in each contest. And even in their close loss, the Lions found a way to lose embarrassingly. New starting quarterback Dan Orlovsky took a safety that ended up being the difference in the ball game. Not because he was sacked in the endzone or fumbled into it. He was scrambling around the endzone and simply forgot where the backline was and ran out of bounds without realizing it. I’ve never seen anything like it.

The Redskins loss to the Rams was disheartening and disappointing. At the time it was even a bit embarrassing. But the further we get from that game, the less shocking and surprising that loss becomes. However, a loss to Detroit would be inexcusable. Washington is better than Detroit all across the board. There is no reason the Redskins should lose to the Lions. None. You could argue that the Redskins could commit three or four turnovers and several costly penalties and hand a win to Detroit. You could argue it, but there’s no reason the Redskins should turn the ball over against Detroit unless Portis becomes bored and simply puts the football down and leaves the stadium. Believe me, I’ve tried to come up with some feasible way the Redskins lose this game, but I can’t. The Skins should win this one going away. Which, knowing the Redskins, means that they’ll somehow find a way to make this a close game.

NFL Week 8: Overseas And Back Again

An average 7-6 record puts the overall mark at 55-40 (58%). I’m really starting to lag behind all the previous years’ pace. I need a couple of big weeks and I need them now. Also…last week I was 6-6-1 (thanks to the Bucs) against the spread, so that record is still a respectable 50-42-3. Please don’t use the following for any gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Oakland Raiders (2-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)(-7)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
This is an important game for the schizoid Ravens. With several more road games in the upcoming weeks, Baltimore must win at home against the Raiders. Positive note for the Ravens: West Coast teams have yet to win a game on the East Coast this season. I believe they are 0-8.
Pick: Ravens

San Diego Chargers (3-4)(-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-4)
1:00 p.m. Wembley Stadium in London, England
Ok, this game was cute last season when the Giants and Dolphins went to England. But how many more years is this going to happen? I got no problem with the Bills playing in Toronto. I have no problem with games in Mexico. And I really don’t have any problem with the occasional game overseas in Europe or Asia. But this better not be an every year thing. The novelty will wear off quickly.

Anyway, speaking of schizoid, neither one of these teams can play consistently well from week to week. The Saints are the ultimate roller-coaster team so far. You don’t see too many teams go from winning by 31 points one week to losing by 23 points the next. This game is far more important to New Orleans. The rest of the NFC South is slowly starting to pull away. The Chargers may be able to go 10-6 or even 9-7 and hold off Denver in the AFC West. Since the Saints have no Reggie Bush, and Deuce McAlister is still not close to 100%, I’ll go with the less unpredictable Chargers.
Pick: Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) vs. New York Jets (3-3)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
As obvious as the Jets losing in Oakland should have been, I completely missed it last week. I think I’ve been giving Brett Favre too much credit. He’s been spending way too much time on the phone lately and not nearly enough time practicing. Herm Edwards makes his less than triumphant return to the swamplands with a team that is awfully close to not even showing up on Sunday. If we are ever going to see an NFL team forfeit a game, it will be Kansas City sometime this season.
Pick: Jets, Chiefs cover

Buffalo Bills (5-1)(-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-4)
1:00 p.m. Dolphin Stadium
This one reeks of a Miami upset. It even reeks of a Miami blowout. The Bills are really full of themselves after last week’s dominant win over San Diego. Despite the record, I still don’t think the Bills are that great of a team. Something about playing teams with a combined 15-22 record doesn’t impress me a whole lot.
Pick: Bills

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Texas Stadium
Say what you will about the Redskins loss to St Louis. At least the Redskins didn’t manage to make the Rams look like the Rams from 1999. If you didn’t realize it by now, the Cowboys are in real trouble. I wouldn’t be surprised if they found themselves in the cellar by this time next week. Right now, I’m not touching them. With three games against the Bucs, Giants and Redskins coming up, the Cowboys would be lucky to get to Thanksgiving at 5-5.
Pick: Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Since losing to the Redskins, the Eagles have had two pretty good weeks. They’ve watched each team in the NFC East lose once and the Cowboys lose twice. During that span, the Eagles had their actual bye week and an unscheduled bye week by virtue of playing the 49ers. It seems the best thing Andy Reid’s team can do is stay home. I’ve always thought Reid was a better coach when his team wasn’t on the field.
Pick: Eagles

St. Louis Rams (2-4) vs. New England Patriots (4-2)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
If you have any clue how this game is going to go, then you are lying. If you have a hunch, please let me know. I have no idea.
Pick: Patriots, Rams cover

Arizona Cardinals (4-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-2)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Despite having two weeks to prepare for this game, I don’t think the Cardinals have a chance to win this one. They have looked terrible in their two other East Coast games this season and have a poor history on the East Coast throughout their franchise history. The Panthers are simply a better team and the wake up call for Arizona will be too early.
Pick: Panthers

Cleveland Browns (2-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)(-7)
4:05 p.m. Alltel Stadium
I don’t care what the record says, the Browns are not as bad as their 2-4 record indicates. The defense I saw last week against the Redskins was outstanding. They swarm to the ball and get plenty of pressure on the quarterback. It is not easy to pass on them (running is a different story). Unfortunately, Cleveland’s schedule doesn’t get any easier this week. They go on the road to face a pretty good team coming off a bye week.
Pick: Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals (0-7) vs. Houston Texans (2-4)(-10)
4:05 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Look, I don’t care how bad the Bengals are or how well the Texans have played the last three weeks. Houston is not 10 points better than any other team in the league right now.
Pick: Texans, Bengals cover

New York Giants (5-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1)(-2.5)
4:15 p.m. Heinz Field
You really have to start taking into account who the Giants have played so far. Other than their win against the Redskins (and that was the week 1 Redskins…a team that bears no resemblance to the one we’ve seen since), the Giants have beaten the Rams, Seahawks, 49ers and Bengals. Those four teams are a combined 5-21. They have played a grand total of one division game. They have played no division road games. Their schedule is about to get brutal in the next few weeks. It’s funny how no one mentions this before crowning the Giants as the NFC’s best team. These next three weeks will tell us a lot about New York.
Pick: Steelers

Seattle Seahawks (1-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-5)(-5.5)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
In the toilet bowl game of the week, one team has a coach that’s resigning at the end of the season while the other team has a coach they just fired. Despite the cheap suits, Mike Nolan was certainly not the answer in the Bay Area (something I’d been saying for years). Mike Singletary may be a better long term option, but I can’t see a team that’s had a new coach for five days beating another NFL team. Even if it is the MASH unit Seahawks.
Pick: Seahawks

MONDAY

Indianapolis Colts (3-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-0)(-4)
8:30 p.m. LP Field
The Colts just can’t make up their minds. They had a very winnable game against the reeling Packers last week, and they looked like a very old team. Certainly not the Colts team we’re used to seeing. I don’t think Peyton Manning’s knees are the problem anymore. This was a team that I expected to have one or two more good seasons before sailing over the hill and into rebuilding mode. It seems that the Colts trip down the hill has already started. That’s not to say they aren’t a dangerous team. But this is not the Colts team that we’ve seen since the late 90’s. As for Tennessee, I’ve seen their “vaunted defense play a couple of times, and I’m not all that impressed. Statistically they look good (especially last week against the Chiefs), but I think a lot of their success has been because they’ve faced poor offenses or teams that just missed taking advantage of several opportunities. Tough call in this one.
Pick: Titans

Bye Week: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota

The Redskins play the winless Lions before the schedule starts picking up again. Hopefully their egg against the Rams will serve as a warning. More on that later.

Browns at Redskins: No Time To Lose

Cleveland Browns (2-3) at Washington Redskins (4-2)
4:15 p.m. FedEx Field
So where do we begin? I guess we have to look back at last weekend. It was an ugly loss and an inexcusable one. The Redskins would have been sitting alone in first place at the time of this posting. All they had to do was beat a winless team that had been outscored 147-43 in its first four games. All the wiggle room and good will that followed road wins against Dallas and Philly flew out the window.

Surprisingly, around town, the mood about the Redskins hasn’t changed. There are still a lot of excited Redskins fans. A loss like the one last week would usually have this town up in arms and everyone would be in full-fledged panic mode. That hasn’t been the case. While no one is happy about the outcome of the game, I think a lot of fans have stayed rational and looked at the bigger picture. The Redskins body of work this season has still been pretty good. And their body of work last week against the Rams was pretty good. The Redskins dominated that game statistically, and if it hadn’t been for a couple of fluky turnovers, the Skins would have won. How many times is Pete Kendall going to catch a tipped pass, fumble it and then have it returned for a defensive touchdown? Maybe once in his career? The Rams game, while extremely disappointing, was more of a fluke than the Redskins beating Dallas and Philly on the road. Every team will have a game or two like that, so it’s best to get it out of the way early.

You can sit here and blame Kendall. Or you can blame Leigh Torrance for doing a terrible job of covering Donnie Avery downfield. Or you can blame Kareem Moore for not blitzing on the play like he was supposed to. Or you can blame the coaching staff for not getting the players up for an obvious trap/letdown game. What you should do is chalk it up as a decent effort by the Skins that was done in by turnovers and fluke plays. Let it go and move on to this week.

It was a busy week at Redskins Park. The Redskins finally ended the Durant Brooks experiment at punter and signed average veteran Ryan Plackemeier. Reed Doughty was placed on IR which means that Chris Horton will be the starter for the rest of the season (that’s a good thing). Former Bears safety Mike Green was brought in for some depth. The most significant move of the week was bringing in former NFL MVP Shaun Alexander to back up Clinton Portis. Ladell Betts hurt his knee in the loss last week, and Jim Zorn felt more comfortable turning to his former running back in Seattle than turning to Rock Cartwright. It’s a curious move for two reasons. The first is the risk the Redskins are taking in alienating Cartwright. This is a guy who rarely carries the ball anyway. The only time he sees the field is on special teams and the only time he touches the ball is during kick returns. Cartwright is a team leader, so it’s strange to see the coaching staff not give Cartwright the chance to be the second-string back. The second reason is the situation the Redskins will have when Betts returns. His knee injury is only supposed to keep him out 2-4 weeks. What happens behind Portis when both Betts and Alexander are available? Do the Redskins cut Alexander? Do they keep him on the roster but not play him? Do they give Alexander some of Betts’ carries? While this is a move with a lot of potential upside (especially if Alexander is healthy and has something left in the tank), it threatens to disrupt the chemistry of the running backs. It seems to be a distraction that the Redskins don’t need and could have avoided.

Now the Cleveland Browns come to the Washington area for the first time since 1991. The quarterback of that Browns team was Bernie Kosar. The head coach, in his first season, was Bill Belichick. The Redskins won 42-17 for anyone who is curious. The Browns only scored touchdowns and a fumble recovery and a fake field goal. It is entirely possible that the 2008 Redskins are the best Skins team since that 1991-92 Super Bowl team.

The Browns started the season much like the Rams did. They were completely outplayed by Dallas, Pittsburgh and Baltimore in three consecutive weeks. Their fourth game was an ugly, close win against the Cincinnati Bengals without quarterback Carson Palmer. They then had 15 days to prepare for a big Monday night home game against the Giants. Well, whatever happened in those 15 days seemed to have woken the Browns up. They handled the Giants pretty well, beating them 35-14 in a game that wasn’t even that close.

One reason the Browns have been showing signs of improvement is that they’re getting healthy. Earlier in the season, their wide receivers were decimated by injuries. Braylon Edwards was playing, but wasn’t close to 100%. Donte Stallworth couldn’t get on the field. Each week a different receiver seemed to miss the game. Combine that with Derek Anderson’s usual inefficiency, and the Browns passing game struggled to move the ball. Cleveland couldn’t stay on the field and their already weak defense was beaten over and over again.

The Browns seem to be clicking now. Despite the “mysterious” injury to Kellen Winslow (which everyone, even the sports outlets, knows about but refuse to report on…google the injury if you feel like being grossed out), the Browns offense is back in gear and looking more and more like last year’s version that almost carried Cleveland to a surprise playoff berth. Not surprisingly, the Browns defense is suddenly looking better now that it doesn’t have to spend 35-38 minutes on the field. They’ve only allowed 26 points in their last two games. This looked like a very winnable game for the Redskins at the end of September. Now it looks like another potential roadblock.

The Browns defense can be attacked up the middle, either on the ground or in the air. Cleveland is allowing 137 rushing yards a game and they’ll have to face the NFL’s leading rusher in Portis. This seems to me to be a no-brainer. Run the ball. Run it a lot. Then take some shots downfield against the Browns poor safeties. Santana Moss, after four big games, has completely disappeared from the offense the last two weeks. Let’s see if the Redskins can find him a couple of times downfield. I’m not too worried about the Redskins offense putting points up in this game.

The question on Sunday, at least for me, is the Redskins defense matching up with the Browns offense. Once again, Shawn Soft Springs will probably miss a game with a bruise and booboo. That means the Skins will have no physical corner to guard Edwards. Everyone remembers what Plaxico Burress did to the Skins in Week 1 while Springs was on the bench. I see no reason Edwards can’t do the same thing against Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot (and I will admit that Rogers has had a good season so far, certainly better than anything I expected from him). Unless the Redskins go back to blitzing Anderson like they blitzed Kurt Warner, I have visions of a 10 reception, 120-yard game from Edwards.

A win here and the Redskins are right back on track. They can put the Rams loss behind them and get back on the march to the playoffs. 5-2 in the NFL is pretty damn good. However, for the first time this season, the Redskins are facing a game they can’t afford to lose. A loss to the Giants on the road is understandable. The loss last week was rough, but the Redskins had enough room for error after reeling off four straight victories. But a loss to Cleveland, combined with likely Cowboys and Giants wins against weak opponents, and the Redskins are going to start fading in the NFC East. Then there will be panic in Washington.

NFL Week 7: Boys Will Be Boys, Thugs Will Be Thugs

An 8-5 week keeps the overall record simmering. It now sits at 48-34 on the season. Thanks to the Cardinals and Browns covering, I was also 8-5 against the spread. That makes me 44-36-2 this year. Let the good times keep rolling. As always, don't use the following picks for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Tennessee Titans (5-0)(-7.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-4)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
There’s a Chiefs fan at my office who said he would put his life savings on Kansas City beating Tennessee this week. Unfortunately, he walked away before I could take the bet. I would have even given him decent odds.
Pick: Titans

San Diego Chargers (3-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-1)(PK)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I can’t believe this game is a pick ‘em. The Chargers have to cross-country for the second time in three weeks. The last time they went east, the Dolphins embarrassed them. The Bills are coming off a bye, and last I checked, they’re a pretty good team. 14 days to get ready for a team that struggles on the East Coast? I don’t think Buffalo needs that advantage, but they do need to be favored.
Pick: Bills

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)(-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I think my worst preseason prediction was having Cincinnati penciled in for an 8-8 season. I think I’m going to miss that mark by a few games. Meanwhile, the Steelers have already opened up a two game lead in the AFC North, and have a great chance this week to make it a three game lead over the lightweights of Cleveland and Baltimore.
Pick: Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (2-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-3)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Dolphin Stadium
It was great to see all few-hundred Ravens fans stick their heads out of their holes a few weeks ago when the team was 2-0. I guess they all saw their shadow, which means we’ll have an extra month of winter or an extra Joe Flacco interception in each game. Something like that.
Pick: Dolphins

Dallas Cowboys (4-2)(-6.5) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-4)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
That giant sucking sound you heard coming from Irving was someone flushing the Cowboys season down the hole in their stadium’s roof. The last three weeks have been ugly in Big D, and as predicted here, a minor meltdown has occurred around Cowboys headquarters. The line can’t keep Tony Romo healthy (he was hit 20 times by the pathetic Cardinals defense), no one can keep Terrell Owens happy, Jerry Jones can’t stop getting plastic surgery and Pacman Jones can’t stop assaulting people. Thugs will be thugs, I guess.

The Cowboys now have full fledged problems along their offensive line, at quarterback, linebacker and secondary. So they solved those problems by trading three draft picks for a…receiver? Not only that, they traded for the second best receiver on the Detroit Lions. That would be the 0-5 Detroit Lions. And it’s another player that has serious attitude issues. The Cowboys now undoubtedly lead the league in guys named Roy Williams, but haven’t fixed any of the problems that have popped up in the past three weeks. However, there is no way they lose to the Rams. What team would lose to the Rams? Ugh.
Pick: Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings (3-3) vs. Chicago Bears (3-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
The NFC North continues to live up to the disappointment it was supposed to be by having three .500 teams tied for first place. The Bears have lost all three of their games in the 4th quarter by handing wins to their opponents. Sadly, they are the best of the bunch. Minnesota has no quarterback and a suspect defense and barely beat the hapless Lions last week. Green Bay was dominated at home by Atlanta no less than two weeks ago. They also have quarterback and defensive issues of their own. At least one of these teams will be over .500 at the end of the day.
Pick: Bears

New Orleans Saints (3-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
The opposite of the NFC North is the NFC South. The Saints sit at 3-3, but instead of being tied for first, they are by themselves in the cellar. The Panthers, Falcons and Bucs all sit one game ahead of New Orleans. The Panthers looked awful last week in Tampa, and put an end to the good feeling I had about Jake Delhomme returning to top form (Delhomme usually dominates the Bucs). Drew Brees appears to be channeling shades of his 2006-self, and despite the lesser record, New Orleans is playing better ball right now.
Pick: Saints

San Francisco 49ers (2-4) vs. New York Giants (4-1)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Somehow the NFC West is even worse than the North. San Francisco would find themselves in last place in either the East or the South, and they would be in fourth place in the North behind the three 3-3 teams. In the West, they are in 2nd place alone, despite a three game losing streak. Not that they’ll sniff the playoffs, but it does look nice in the standings.
Pick: Giants

Detroit Lions (0-5) vs. Houston Texans (1-4)(-9)
4:05 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Ok, let’s move along. Nothing to see here.
Pick: Texans, Lions cover

New York Jets (3-2)(-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-4)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
It’s tempting to take the Raiders, considering it’s a cross-country trip for the Jets. However, the Jets had two weeks to prepare for a bad football team. The Raiders looked completely hopeless against New Orleans under new coach Tom Cable instead of only looking somewhat hopeless under old coach Lane Kiffin.
Pick: Jets

Indianapolis Colts (3-2)(-1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-3)
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
I’m sure that this game was originally scheduled to be the Sunday Night Game, but somehow Manning vs. Rodgers doesn’t have the same appeal as Manning vs. Favre. Needless to say, the Colts offense appears to be back on track after their 31 point outburst against the Ravens. Wouldn’t be surprised if they put up another 31 points against a weaker defense. Only 1.5 points from Vegas is a gift.
Pick: Colts

Seattle Seahawks (1-4) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)(-10)
8:15 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
Then again, I’d rather watch Manning vs. Rodgers on Sunday Night than this matchup. It’s painful to see what the Seahawks are doing in poor Mike Holmgren’s final season. He deserved better than this.
Pick: Buccaneers

MONDAY

Denver Broncos (4-2) vs. New England Patriots (3-2)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Right now, I’m not taking the Patriots against any team in the top half of the league. The Broncos have their flaws (as losing to the Chiefs and at home to the Jaguars suggest), but they are certainly one of the best 14-16 teams in the NFL. The ineffectiveness of the Patriots offense is hurting an undermanned defense. The 30-10 loss to San Diego is just the beginning of the Patriots slide to 7-9.
Pick: Broncos

Bye Week: Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia

I hope everyone blew off some steam following last Sunday’s monstrosity. Like Jim Zorn says, let’s keep it medium. I’ll try to do the same soon when discussing the Browns and Skins.

Redskins Fumble Away Game, Opportunity

WHAT DID I JUST SAY?!? No turnovers = wins. Forget the SI jinx. What I just did was the ultimate hex. Not only did the Redskins lose, they lost because they screwed up in the one department I spent almost an entire post on. They went from no offensive turnovers to three turnovers in four possessions.

That was the old Redskins team. That was the team that invents new ways to lose week after week. That was the Redskins team that manages to lose games to clearly inferior teams. There were so many things that went wrong, I don't even know where to start. I guess I'll hold off until later in the week. The fact that the game's outcome wasn't even the worst thing to happen this weekend made it tough enough to stomach. I don't need to rehash this game over and over again like I've been doing the past 6 hours. So frustrating. Maybe the next time the Redskins take a bye week, it will be during their acutal bye week.

Rams at Redskins: Silence Of The Rams

St. Louis Rams (0-4) vs. Washington Redskins (4-1)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
I won’t go into too much detail about the last few weeks, since they’ve been hashed out on this page and on every other sports media page on the world wide net. The Redskins are a pretty good team. They are certainly among the top 5 or 6 in the NFL as of Week 6. A case could be made that they are the best team in the NFL so far (I won’t make it…not yet). For the past four weeks, they have done well in just about every facet of the game.

The key stat, and I know it’s been mentioned to death by now, is zero offensive turnovers. Combine that with being the 6th least penalized team (penalties a game since you have to factor in other team’s bye weeks) in the league, and the Skins, for the first time in many years, aren’t beating themselves. It has been the Redskins turn to sit back, wait for their opponents to make all the mistakes, and then take advantage of them. As much as all the analysts want to talk about “defense winning championships” and “you need a veteran quarterback” and other such nonsense, the best teams in the NFL are usually the ones that don’t beat themselves. Look at the Giants last season. They didn’t have the best offense or defense in the league. They certainly didn’t have a good coach. But from mid-December to the Super Bowl, they didn’t turn the ball over a whole lot. And they kept winning.

The Redskins offense is 6th in the NFL, but well behind the top four statistical units. The defense ranks 13th. Those are both solid numbers. You can go 10-6 in this league with the 6th best offense and the 13th best defense. But if you don’t turn the ball over, and your opponent does, then those rankings will be deceiving. Last season, the Redskins were -5 in the turnover department and were in the middle of the pack in terms of penalties. This season, the Redskins are +6 in turnovers and are one of the best teams in avoiding flags. The only team in the NFL that compares favorably with the Redskins in both categories this season is Tennessee. They’re 5-0. The Redskins aren’t flukes. They’re protecting the ball and not doing anything stupid. That’s how you win NFL games.

Also helping the Redskins is the offensive play-calling. Jim Zorn continues to win over Redskins fans by the tens-of-thousands with his aggressive offense. Most in the media are still calling this a West Coast Offense, but it really isn’t. At least not in the truest sense. This is some sort of WCO hybrid, that is combined with the old-school Joe Gibbs power running attack. I called it a mix between the WCO and the Coryell-Gibbs offense of the mid-80’s. Whatever it is, it’s working. It doesn’t hurt that Zorn is showing confidence in his offense by allowing the Redskins to go for it in key 4th down situations instead of playing conservative, punting and waiting for the defense to wrap up a win.

The scary thing, if you are the rest of the NFL, is that the Redskins haven’t played a complete game yet. The past two weeks they haven’t shown up for the first quarter, and they didn’t show up for most of the 4th in Dallas. As good as this team has looked, they could be even better. They left a lot of points in the redzone against Dallas, and they didn’t wake up against the Eagles until halftime. That is encouraging for Redskins fans because despite the hot start, the Skins actually have room for improvement.

So now that the Redskins have gotten around the potential minefield at the top of their schedule, they get to face the Rams, Browns and Lions in the next three weeks. Those three teams are a combined 1-11. The Rams and Lions are easily the two worst teams in the NFL. This is a perfect opportunity for the Skins to get a jump on the rest of the NFC and NFC East. But as all Redskins fans know, the Skins have a long history of playing down to their competition and losing games they have no business losing. So for those who are already putting the Redskins at 7-1 are getting waaaaaaaayyyyyy ahead of themselves.

The Rams are 0-4 have been outscored 147-43. Two of the losses have come to the Bills and Giants, two teams that are a combined 8-1. The other two losses came against the Eagles and Seahawks. Those teams are a combined 3-6. With the exception of the Giants, the Rams haven’t exactly lost to world-beaters.

Figuring that things couldn’t get much worse, the Rams fired coach Scott Linehan during their bye week and replaced him with assistant coach and former Saints coach Jim Haslett. I’m not sure why the Rams promoted Haslett, since he was in charge of the defense that gave up 147 points in four games and was one of the main reasons Linehan was fired in the first place. Doesn’t exactly smell like the qualifications for a promotion to me. Hiring Haslett as an assistant was Linehan’s biggest mistake. First, Haslett completely took down a defensive unit that wasn’t strong to begin with. Second, when time came for a change, the move to Haslett (a former coach) was more attractive for Rams upper management than promoting a no-name coordinator. So essentially, Linehan hired his replacement. I’ve never understood why head coaches do this. Why would you hire a former coach to be your assistant? Why would you hire someone who is qualified to take your job if you fail? Why would Jack Del Rio hire Gregg Williams? Why would Norv Turner hire Ted Cottrell. Why would anyone hire Mike Martz? The instant the coach screws up, all the owner or general manager has to do is get rid of him and let everyone move up a notch. It’s the easiest way to get rid of a coach with the least amount of adjustment problems. Haslett isn’t a permanent replacement, but he can certainly do better than Linehan and he has the ability to get the Rams through the season. If you are going to hire a coordinator, hire someone who is proven, but young and with no NFL head coaching experience. Or you hire someone like Jim Johnson or Monte Kiffin, who has no interest in becoming a head coach or has a personality problem that won’t allow an owner to hire them. You don’t hire a capable replacement in the NFL. It makes it too easy for the owner to get rid of you.

The Rams still possess Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson and Torry Holt. I don’t want to hear about this team not having talent. That’s a better triple threat than half of the NFL. Linehan made a lot of mistakes managing the offense, namely making the genius decision two weeks ago to bench Bulger in favor of 52-year-old Trent Green. The offensive line is also in shambles and the Rams did basically nothing in the off-season to fix it. So it’s not like no one could see a season like this coming. The Rams are dead last in points per game, first downs and third down conversions. They are 30th in the NFL in yards per game. They are 31st in points allowed per game and yards allowed per game (thank goodness for the Lions defense). The Rams have been horrendous. In fact, that might be an insult to the word horrendous. It’s been much worse than that. It has been a complete and total failure on both sides of the ball for St. Louis in their first four games.

So you may ask why I am worried. Well, despite the terrible record and stats, St. Louis is better than those numbers indicate. There is no way the Rams are going to keep up a pace of getting outscored 37-11. Those numbers are going to even out somewhat over the course of the year. Above, I mentioned that the Redskins had room for improvement despite their 4-1 start. In essence, the Rams have played as bad as humanly possible for the first four weeks. The Redskins haven’t hit their pinnacle, but the Rams have hit rock bottom. It can’t get any worse. It can only get better. It may not get better in leaps and bounds, but it will get better.

The injury bug is starting to catch up with the Redskins as well. Jason Taylor is expected to play, but he has a bad calf on one leg and a bad knee on the other. Not sure how effective he’ll be. Shawn Soft Springs is looking to shed his soft label by playing “hurt” this week as well. Marcus Washington and Cornelius Griffin are both expected to miss the game. So that’s two starters out for the defense and a two more playing well under 100%.

Finally, everyone knows the Redskins are supposed to win this game. That includes the fans, players and even Vegas, which has established the Skins as 13.5 point favorites. It is only natural for a team like the Redskins, coming off two huge wins on the road against division opponents, to have a let down against a poor team outside of the NFC East. And even with the coaching change, the Rams are coming off a bye week and have had 14 days to prepare for the Skins. There isn’t a lot of footage on Jim Zorn’s offense, but the Rams will probably have the best understanding of what Zorn is trying to do compared to the rest of the teams Washington’s faced so far. Whether they can stop the Skins or not is still to be determined. Overlook the Rams at your own risk. Don’t pencil 7-1 in to the standings yet.

NFL Week 6: Winless? I Ain't Lion!

A 9-4 mark last week keeps the overall record rolling in the right direction. I'm now 40-29 and gaining. The better news was my 9-3-1 record against the spread, which ups that tally well about .500 to 36-31-2. Just remember, even though I'm starting to get a handle on the NFL season, do not use these picks for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Oakland Raiders (1-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-3)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Your quarterback throws for over 300 yards. One of your receivers goes over 100 yards. Reggie Bush returns two punts for touchdowns. You outgain your opponent by 100 yards and hold the ball for 5 more minutes. You’re at home against a team starting Gus Frerotte at QB. And you lose? Worse yet, the loss moves you to last place in the division. That’s a loss that will comeback and haunt the Saints the rest of the season.
Pick: Saints

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
Ok Ravens fans, time to get up for the “Battle of the Baltimores.” Except no one outside the Greater Inner Harbor area cares about another made-up rivalry game like the one Ravens fans have imagined with the Redskins. Animosity aside, the Colts need to win this game and they need to win it convincingly. Despite Joe Flacco looking as bad as possible in the last two games, I’m very tempted to go with the Ravens in this game. Peyton Manning still doesn’t look healthy and his timing with the Colts receivers seems to be way off. I’ll give them another week.
Pick: Colts

Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) vs. New York Jets (2-2)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Jets have had two weeks to prepare for their game against the Bengals. No team needs two weeks to prepare for a game against the Bengals.
Pick: Jets

Carolina Panthers (4-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
In the Panthers win over Kansas City, DeAngelo Williams had 148 total yards. The Chiefs offense as a whole had 127. I’ll keep saying it: the more I see the Panthers, the more I like them to go far this season. They are like the opposite of the Colts. All their players are getting healthy at the right time and the chemistry between Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad has never been better.
Pick: Panthers

Detroit Lions (0-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
I believe that this will be the season that a team goes winless. Yes, I think we will see the first 0-16 team in NFL history. I think the Bengals have too much talent to lose all of their games. I also don’t think the AFC is good enough to prevent both the Bengals or Texans from earning a win through the entire season. That leaves the two teams in the NFC. We’ll talk more about the Rams later in the week, but I think their schedule allows them to get a couple wins. If nothing else, they should win a couple in the NFC West. The Lions are the best option, and I’m predicting right now that they will lose every game this season. Which of course means they’ll win this week. You’re welcome Detroit.
Pick: Vikings

Chicago Bears (3-2)(-2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
I said a week ago that the Cowboys win at Lambeau was probably the best of their first three victories because of the degree of difficultly of winning in Green Bay. However, with the Falcons dominating performance against the Packers on the road, that win has been greatly diminished. The Falcons are not as good as their 3-2 record indicates. However, a win in this game, combined with upcoming games against the injured Eagles and the mess out in Oakland, could make it possible for this team to be 5-3 going into the halfway point of the season. I don’t think it happen, but anything’s possible.
Pick: Bears

Miami Dolphins (2-2)(-3) vs. Houston Texans (0-4)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
It won’t be long before some team figures out how to stop the direct snap play that Miami has been running with Ronnie Brown. My guess is a fast Texans defense is exactly the unit to do the trick. Matt Schuab should be back from his illness and I think Houston grabs win #1.
Pick: Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) vs. Denver Broncos (4-1)(-3.5)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
I think it’s safe to say the Jaguars are the best 2-3 team in the league (and there are a bunch of candidates to choose from). I keep waiting for Jacksonville to snap out of their doldrums and start climbing the ladder in the AFC. They are quickly running out of time and their schedule doesn’t help them. With Tennessee at 5-0, and Indianapolis a game away from jumping back into the thick of things, a loss here would doom Jacksonville. I’ll pick them here, but I’ll cut my ties with a loss.
Pick: Jaguars

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)(-5.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
With Brian Westbrook injured, the Eagles offense has no playmaker that opposing defenses have to be worried about. And when the San Francisco 49ers have more playmakers than the team they’re playing, that’s saying something. Without Westbrook, or with an injured Westbrook, the Eagles can lose any game. Even this one.
Pick: Eagles, 49ers cover

Dallas Cowboys (4-1)(-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
It’s all starting to unravel in Big D, isn’t it? Just like I predicted. First the Redskins go down to Texas and embarrass the Cowboys. The loss was followed by yet another Terrell Owens mini-drama. Then the Cowboys barely survive a visit from the winless Bengals. And just a couple of days ago, Pacman Jones acted like…well, Pacman Jones…and gets into a fight with his bodyguard. For those scoring at home, that is altercation #13 that Jones has been involved in when the police have been called. It’s a good thing the Cowboys have good citizens like Tank Johnson to tell the media which players are acting classy after games. So Tank, what do you think of Jones beating up his team-appointed body guard? Is that classy? Is that the behavior Rock Cartwright should try to emulate? All we’re missing in Dallas is for one of the players to call-out Wade Phillips in public, then the shit will really start rolling downhill. I think we’re only a few weeks away from that happening.
Pick: Cowboys, Cardinals cover

Green Bay Packers (2-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-3)(-2.5)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
I’m not taking Aaron Rodgers anywhere until he proves that he can beat someone outside of the bad NFC North. The wins against Minnesota and Detroit just aren’t cutting it. Mike Holmgren will go out in his final season with a win against his former team.
Pick: Seahawks

New England Patriots (3-1) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-3)(-5.5)
8:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
This is the hardest game of the week to pick. I really think that Vegas is devaluing the Patriots based on one (albeit significant) injury. With Tom Brady, they’re probably an 8-10 point favorite. They are also overvaluing the Chargers. A couple of weeks ago, when the Chargers defense was in the bottom half of the league, all the “experts” said that it was just an aberration and at the end of the season, the Chargers D would be in the top 10 statistically. Well, the Chargers are still 28th in total defense. I think that’s about where the Chargers D will be at the end of the season. They are giving up an awful lot of yards to some really bad offenses. I’m tempted to go with New England, but I think San Diego will use revenge as their motivation for the win.
Pick: Chargers

MONDAY

New York Giants (5-0)(-8) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-3)
8:30 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Will somebody beat the Giants please? Cleveland can do it, right? They’re coming off a bye week, so they had seven extra days to get ready for their season’s most pivotal game. So the Browns should take care of it. Right? Somebody? Please help.
Pick: Giants, Browns cover

Bye Week: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee

The Redskins are 13.5-pt favorites against the Rams. Really? Are the Skins that good or the Rams that bad? We’ll discuss shortly.

'Skins Fly High In Philly

FOR REAL

Another road game, another division game, another game played as an underdog…and another win. A great win for the Redskins. Considering that there wasn’t a whole lot riding on the outcome, the Skins could have easily folded after trailing 14-0 midway through the first quarter. But after the Eagles got off their first 15 scripted plays, and after Andy Reid actually had to coach his team and make adjustments, the Eagles looked like a 2-3 team while the Redskins looked like a 4-1 team.

By the way, the balls Jim Zorn has must be huge. He took several chances late in the games against New Orleans and Arizona. But to go for it on 4th and 1, up 6, and at the Eagles 37-yard line with almost three minutes to go was one of the gutsiest calls I’ve seen. There is no way that Joe Gibbs goes for that. There’s no way 95% of the coaches in the league go for it. I love the aggressiveness (from the offense…the defensive passiveness can be a topic for another day) even if the play backfires. I’d rather lose a game being aggressive and playing to win than to lose a game playing passive, safe and playing the game the so-called “right way.”

At 4-1, the Redskins are sitting pretty right now. No more division road games. Three opponents on the schedule that have a combined record of 1-11. It looks very, very promising. Time to celebrate now, be back later in the week to nitpick.

Redskins at Eagles: One More For The Road

Washington Redskins (3-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Expert after expert, analyst after analyst and outlet after outlet raced to be the first to crown the Dallas Cowboys as the best team in the NFL. Who could blame them? Just a week ago, America’s team was officially back! Everybody aboard the bandwagon! And while the rush to judgment was all well and good, every major sports outlet forgot to look at the whole picture. The weak beginning schedule. The quarterback who has yet to win an important game. The lack of depth on both sides of the ball. And of course, what I wrote last week:

The linebacking corps is average at best. I also said back in August that the secondary was weak. They’ve only gotten weaker since Roy Williams (who is a liability in deep pass coverage anyway) got hurt and Pacman Jones has proven that he has lost more than step and is nothing more than a washed up “never-was”. The final weakness is Wade Phillips, who will lose this team as soon as the Cowboys encounter their first Owens-Pacman-Tank Johnson controversy or the Cowboys lose a couple of games in a row. The more I’ve seen of Dallas, the more I’ve seen that these problems have yet to be addressed.

Those problems all reared their ugly heads against the first good team Dallas faced. The Washington Redskins exposed all three of those problems last Sunday. The linebackers couldn’t find Clinton Portis all game. After the first quarter, they couldn’t lay a hand on Jason Campbell. The secondary was burned time and time again. Ken Hamlin is still trying to find Santana Moss. That would be Ken Hamlin of the new $50 million contract. When Adam Jones wasn’t lined up against Moss, he didn’t know who to guard. Antwaan Randle El and Chris Cooley each had key catches against him. The Redskins threw the ball whenever they wanted to and threw to whoever they wanted to. Dallas was powerless to stop it.

Following the game, the inevitable Terrell Owens blowup started taking place. After the game, Owens said something to the effect of “when I get the ball the offense goes, when I don’t get the ball the offense is stagnant.” I watched the entire press conference, and the Dallas reporters completely set Owens up with a misleading series of questions to get that soundbite. They then took that soundbite out of context and ran with it. But it doesn’t matter. That quote started a landslide of criticism, and the first cracks in the Cowboys’ armor have already been created. What was just a big loss to a division rival became more than that for Phillips and his staff. Now they have to worry about keeping Owens happy instead of winning football games. Despite being 3-1 with three relatively easy games coming up, Dallas now has to go in to damage control. We all knew it was going to happen eventually, I’m just thrilled it was the Redskins that helped the process along.

As I assumed, most of the attention after the game was paid to Owens and whatever nonsense he spews. Very little attention was paid to the game itself. When the game was talked about, the same analysts and experts that raced to name the Cowboys “best in the NFL” were the first to make apologies and excuses for them. And they were to first to take away credit from the Redskins. The phrase “the Cowboys did not play well” was used roughly 2,200 times this past week as the reason that Dallas lost and the Redskins somehow – inexplicably – won. Following the first excuse, the analysts then turned their attention to “Marion Barber only carried the ball 8 times” or “Felix Jones didn’t touch the ball” or “Tony Romo didn’t make the clutch throws”. Blah, blah, blah.

The Cowboys lost this game because they were outplayed from start to finish by the Redskins. I guess you can make the argument that Dallas didn’t play well. But maybe Barber only got 8 carries because the Redskins shut him down at the line. It wouldn’t be the first time. In five career games against the Skins, Barber hasn’t gained more than 70 yards in any of the contests. Maybe Romo couldn’t make the clutch throws because the Redskins defense was better than him. It wouldn't be the first time. He's only 1-3 against the Redskins. Chris Horton baited him into the pick, and the Skins secondary made life miserable for the physical Cowboys receivers. It wasn’t because Romo struggled or Owens didn’t get enough touches. It was because the Redskins defense forced Romo to play poorly. And even if the above Cowboy excuses are legit, that would be a sign of bad coaching by Phillips. Which means that Phillips was outcoached by a rookie signal caller. Jim Zorn was the better coach.

Another fact being overlooked is that the Redskins didn’t play as well as they could have either. The Skins drove the ball inside the redzone six times. They only scored two touchdowns. If the Redskins had played better inside the Dallas 20, they could have scored 35-40 points and the game would have been over in the third quarter. If anything, the Redskins weren’t lucky to beat Dallas, the Cowboys were lucky to only lose by two points.

My final word on that great win for the Redskins has to do with Rock Cartwright. A story was published Sunday night that said that Cartwright and resident Dallas thug Tank Johnson got into a fight after the game because Johnson thought that Cartwright was celebrating on the Dallas star. On Sunday night, both the Washington Post and Washington Times said that Cartwright wasn’t celebrating, dancing or making any sort of scene. He was just standing around midfield, smiling and enjoying the win. Soaking up the atmosphere, if you will. Johnson mistook Cartwright’s joy for smugness and took offense. Ok, simple misunderstanding. I was willing to overlook it as two combatants getting upset at each other after a tough division game and great rivalry contest.

Well, on Monday, ESPN took hold of the story as only ESPN can do. Except instead of presenting the views of both Johnson and Cartwright (as the Post and Times did), they only talked to Johnson after the game. ESPN’s story said that Cartwright was most definitely celebrating, and the story came complete with some quote from Johnson saying that Cartwright and the Redskins had “no class.” The story did not contain one quote from Cartwright or any member of the Redskins. Cartwright immediately became the villain. How dare he celebrate a big win on the field! The outrage!

Even if he was celebrating the win in an obnoxious fashion (which he wasn’t), who cares? His team just won a huge game. He earned the right to celebrate. But that’s not what really bothered me. The fact that Johnson had the nerve to say the Redskins had no class, and that ESPN reported it, took it seriously and debated whether or not the Redskins did indeed have no class, is an absolute joke. Here is Johnson, a man who has been arrested time and time again, complaining that someone else has no class. I guess we’re lucky Johnson didn’t go to the lockerroom and pull out any of his .22 calibers. Here is a member of the Dallas Cowboys - the same organization that employed drug-dealers like Michael “Cokeline” Irvin, Nate Newton and Quincy Carter, thugs like Johnson and Pacman Jones and currently star the most selfish and annoying wide receiver to ever play the game – criticizing the Redskins for not knowing how to play with class. This is the same team that employs Owens, is it not? The same player who just a few years ago, as a member of the 49ers, did his own famous celebration on the so-called “sacred” star. And Johnson has the nerve to talk about Cartwright not playing with class. Oh, the irony unkind!

Despite the criminals and morons that occupy the Cowboys lockerroom, I still thoroughly enjoyed the Redskins win. I didn’t show any “class” when it came to dealing with the few obnoxious Cowboys fans in the office. It’s funny how most of them have been very quiet this week. Wonder why? Anyway, as great as it is to beat Dallas, it was also an important win for Washington. The Skins now sit at 3-1 as they head out on the road…again. As I mentioned last week, the worst that can happen (barring injuries) on Sunday is that they lose to the Eagles, sit at 3-2 after a brutal opening slate and can focus on getting healthy against the Rams, Browns and Lions.

This is the sixth time since 1996 that the Redskins have started 3-1. Only once in the past five tries did they go 4-1. In three of those seasons, the Redskins made the playoffs. So I guess it’s not necessarily important for the Redskins to beat Philadelphia tomorrow, but it couldn’t hurt. Can you imagine the Redskins at 4-1 with all three division road games behind them? How sweet would that be?

The bad news for the Redskins is it appears that Brian Westbrook will play. Without him, the Eagles offense is bad. They can’t move the ball, Donovan McNabb is a sitting duck in the pocket and the Eagles usually lose. Corell Buckhalter is a decent backup, but can’t do the things in the passing game that Westbrook can. The Eagles offense has always done well against the Redskins, and with Westbrook, I expect them to put up anywhere from 21 to 28 points against the Skins’ D. I don’t think it matters that Jason Taylor doesn’t play. Taylor wasn’t a huge contributor in the first three games, and the Skins defense didn’t miss him against Dallas. Shawn Springs’ injury could be important. Springs continues to show his soft side year after year. And while he is soft, he is important. Just remember how easy it was for Plaxico Burress to make plays against the Skins secondary in week 1 when Springs was out. The secondary won’t be as good without Springs, but the Eagles don’t really have a big possession receiver to take advantage of his absence. Plus, the immergence of Horton since the Saints game will help offset some of what Springs brings to the field. Regardless, I expect 21-28 points from the Eagles offense.

The Redskins offense will have to show up again. The offense will face their toughest task of the season against Jim Johnson’s blitzing schemes. He blitzes on first downs. He blitzes on third downs. He blitzes in running and passing situations. He blitzes in short yardage and long yardage. He blitzes when he’s ahead and when he’s behind. I guess I’m saying that the Eagles Defensive Coordinator blitzes a lot. I’ve always like that aggression and I’ve always liked Johnson, despite the fact he coaches for the Eagles. I’ve thought for a long time that he’d actually be a better head coach than Andy “Father of the Year” Reid.

The key to attacking the Eagles is twofold. One is attacking the blitz when the Eagles come with it. As they say in the NFL, when a team blitzes, put the ball where the blitz came from. That’s where the field will be wide open. So that means screen passes to Portis and bubble screens to the receivers. Jason Campbell won’t have time to look downfield, at least not in the early going. The second way to attack Johnson’s Eagles is to stay balanced. You can’t go heavy with the run or pass. You have to make the Eagles guess because that is the only way you can keep the Eagles from blitzing almost every play. If the Redskins force the Eagles to back off their blitzes, they’ll win the game. The Eagles are not good enough at linebacker or in the secondary to rush only four or five guys like the Redskins love to do. If the Skins can get them standing around in zone coverage, Campbell should pick them apart.

This will probably the most I’ll ever get to truly enjoy a Redskins game. If they lose, so what? 3-2 isn’t great in the NFC East. But with three almost certain wins coming up, and the toughest part of the schedule over and done with, 3-2 is exactly where I hoped the Redskins would be after 5 weeks. The only reason this game is important is that it gives the Redskins a chance to put a major dent in the Eagles' season. If Philly loses, they fall to 2-3, they’ll be at least two games out of first place (and most likely at least two games behind the other three teams), they’ll be 0-2 in the division, and their disgusting fans will turn on them. The Redskins had several chances to step on the necks of other teams last season and didn’t take advantage. The best example would be the week 3 game against the Giants. If the Skins held on to that lead at home, the Giants would have been 0-3, and their season would have been over. Instead, the Giants rally, use that game as a springboard, and go on to win the Super Bowl. There’s no need or reason to let Philly back into the NFC East race. If the Skins lose, I won’t be worried. But if they win, it’s time to get really excited about this season. Just imagine…4-1 with no division road games left. It’s a pretty sight.

NFL Week 5: Call In The Bomb Squad

I was 8-4 last week…that’s much better. The overall record limps ahead to 31-25. Against the spread, a 7-5 week gets me closer to the .500 mark at 27-28-1. Both of these marks are still well below my average, so with the recent turnaround, I have a good feeling about this week. As always, don’t use the following picks for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Indianapolis Colts (1-2)(-3) vs. Houston Texans (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Barring any more hurricanes, tornados and floods, the Texans will finally get to play their home opener. This game will then be followed by three more home games, meaning Houston won’t have to leave home until right before Election Day. That’s not a bad deal considering the Texans’ record and need for wins. The Colts have only lost to Houston once since the Texans came into existence, and they’re coming off their bye. One of my favorite stats is teams coming off byes that face teams not coming off byes win nearly 75% of the time. Bodes will for Indy.
Pick: Colts

Tennessee Titans (4-0)(-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
I have picked the Titans only once in four weeks and I haven’t picked the Ravens to win yet. So I’m 2-5 with these teams. The Ravens finally played a half decent team and managed to look half decent themselves. Still, Joe Flacco did relatively nothing until the final drive of the fourth quarter. In fact, you could say he cost them the game with inability to muster offense with good field position and his fumble that turned into a defensive touchdown. He also did nothing during the first possession of overtime. I’ll admit that he’s been much better than what I thought he’d be, but that’s not saying much since I thought he’d be Kyle Boller Part II. He’s making too many mistakes and the Titans defense appears to be legit. Could spell trouble at home.
Pick: Titans

San Diego Chargers (2-2)(-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-2)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
This game has upset written all over it. First, the Chargers have to fly across country to play a game at 10:00 am PST. Secondly, they have to play a team coming off their bye. Finally, the Dolphins may not be as bad as originally expected. A win against New England may not mean as much as it has in the past, but the way Miami embarrassed them in Foxboro was impressive nonetheless. However, I have a feeling Miami will try that single-wing play they ran effectively against the Pats. Teams learn quickly in the NFL, and I doubt the Chargers will allow a gimmick like that to succeed again.
Pick: Chargers, Dolphins cover

Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-1)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
The Chiefs win last week didn’t prove that Kansas City is respectable, it proved that Denver (especially their defense) was a bit overrated. Meanwhile, Carolina fans are probably sending thank you letters to the NFL-schedule makers for giving them the Falcons-Chiefs back-to-back home combo to help get healthy in a tough NFC South.
Pick: Panthers

Chicago Bears (2-2)(-3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Even though they tried hard, the Bears couldn’t blow a fourth quarter lead for the third straight week. All it took was a miraculous goal line stand at home against a team playing their third-string running back. Well done!

Before their bye week, the Lions decided to fire Matt Millen. While this move should have been done about three seasons ago, it’s unlikely that Detroit will be any better this season or in the near future. This team doesn’t have one good offensive lineman. Not one. It will probably take at least two or three off-seasons for Detroit to get the pieces in place on the line, and that’s assuming that the Lions hire a competent GM who knows what he’s doing. But by then, Roy Williams will probably have been traded and Jon Kitna will either be retired or paralyzed as a result of playing behind such a terrible offensive line. Then the Lions will have to find a quarterback. Not to mention the problems on defense. There are way too many holes and not enough off-seasons to fix them.
Pick: Bears

Atlanta Falcons (2-2) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2)(-5)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
So when the Packers were 2-0, and everyone was talking about a potential Dallas-Green Bay NFC Championship game, who was the one person who told you that the Packers hadn’t played a decent team yet and it was likely that Aaron Rodgers would crumble against teams from the top half of the NFL? That was me…and I was right.
Pick: Packers

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) vs. New York Giants (3-0)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
As I learned earlier this year, if you see the Seahawks anywhere on the East side of the Mississippi, and they’re only a one score underdog, you take the home team and the points. Seattle simply can’t win on the East Coast. The line is low because Vegas is putting too much stock in the Giants miserable performance against Cincinnati and the suspension of Plaxico Burress. Neither one will factor in to this game.
Pick: Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Denver Broncos (3-1)(-3.5)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
This is the most difficult game of the week to pick. I could easily go either way. The Broncos defense can’t stop anybody…and that includes the Chiefs. The Bucs have been winning despite turning the ball over way too much. Brian Griese has thrown six picks in the last two games. So when in doubt, go with the home team.
Pick: Broncos

New England Patriots (2-1)(-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
It’s been two weeks since the Patriots got manhandled at home by a team that went 1-15 last season. As enjoyable as that was and as tempting as it may be to pick the upset here, it doesn’t make much sense. The only real reason to take a chance is the cross country trip New England will make for the first time in two seasons. The only game they played West of the Mississippi last season was the Super Bowl. Anyway, the Patriots are not as bad as they appeared in that Miami game. Even without Tom Brady, there is no way they are going to lose back-to-back games against the Dolphins and 49ers.
Pick: Patriots

Buffalo Bills (4-0) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-2)(PK)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
The Vegas line has hovered around even or 1-point for most of the week. The reason is that Vegas still has no confidence in Buffalo. While the Bills are clearly a team to be reckoned with in the AFC East because of what has transpired in the season’s first four weeks, I too have my doubts. The Bills track record on Western road trips this decade has been abysmal. They should have blown out Oakland and St. Louis, but had to overcome double-digit leads in both games to win. Their 4-0 record is mostly because of a schedule that has seen them play teams with a combined 4-11 record. Win a game here, on the road, across the country to go into the bye week at 5-0, then we’ll talk.
Pick: Cardinals

Cincinnati Bengals (0-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)(-17)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
It turns out the Cowboys may be a bit overrated…hmm? I’ll get into it more during my Redskins preview, but it’s clear that the Cowboys’ issues I pointed out last week will be the ultimate downfall of this team in the first round of the playoffs. Plus, on top of the loss, it appears the T.O. Timebomb is about ready to go off. And when he explodes, there is no way Wade Phillips, Tony Romo or the Dallas Bomb Sqaud will be able to contain him. Unfortunately, the Cowboys get to play Cincinnati, which means they’ll get an easy win and most likely defuse the inevitable blowup for at least a few weeks.
Pick: Cowboys, Bengals cover

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)(-4)
8:15 p.m. Alltel Stadium
The Steelers played really well the first two weeks and have looked really bad the last two. The opposite is true for Jacksonville. For Pittsburgh, they have a stretch coming up that includes the Giants, Redskins, Colts and Chargers. If they don’t win here, they could be looking at 5-5 going into the Thanksgiving weekend. With all the players they’re missing, and with all the players that are active but seriously banged up, I don’t see how a healthy Jaguars team that beat Pittsburgh twice last season, could lose at home. I think Jacksonville uses the monster combo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to bully their way over .500.
Pick: Jaguars

MONDAY

Minnesota Vikings (1-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-2)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
The Saints have a nice home game against Oakland next week and two games against Kansas City and Atlanta waiting for them in November. A win here not only puts the Saints in good shape in the NFC South and the NFC in general, they deal a serious blow to whatever chances the Vikings have left in the conference. Minnesota’s schedule also gets easier after this game, but an 1-4 hole may be too deep to dig out of.
Pick: Saints

Bye Week: Cleveland, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

Skins hit the road again for a much shorter trip and visit a more annoying fanbase. That’s coming soon.