NFL Week 6: Winless? I Ain't Lion!

A 9-4 mark last week keeps the overall record rolling in the right direction. I'm now 40-29 and gaining. The better news was my 9-3-1 record against the spread, which ups that tally well about .500 to 36-31-2. Just remember, even though I'm starting to get a handle on the NFL season, do not use these picks for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Oakland Raiders (1-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-3)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Your quarterback throws for over 300 yards. One of your receivers goes over 100 yards. Reggie Bush returns two punts for touchdowns. You outgain your opponent by 100 yards and hold the ball for 5 more minutes. You’re at home against a team starting Gus Frerotte at QB. And you lose? Worse yet, the loss moves you to last place in the division. That’s a loss that will comeback and haunt the Saints the rest of the season.
Pick: Saints

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
Ok Ravens fans, time to get up for the “Battle of the Baltimores.” Except no one outside the Greater Inner Harbor area cares about another made-up rivalry game like the one Ravens fans have imagined with the Redskins. Animosity aside, the Colts need to win this game and they need to win it convincingly. Despite Joe Flacco looking as bad as possible in the last two games, I’m very tempted to go with the Ravens in this game. Peyton Manning still doesn’t look healthy and his timing with the Colts receivers seems to be way off. I’ll give them another week.
Pick: Colts

Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) vs. New York Jets (2-2)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Jets have had two weeks to prepare for their game against the Bengals. No team needs two weeks to prepare for a game against the Bengals.
Pick: Jets

Carolina Panthers (4-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
In the Panthers win over Kansas City, DeAngelo Williams had 148 total yards. The Chiefs offense as a whole had 127. I’ll keep saying it: the more I see the Panthers, the more I like them to go far this season. They are like the opposite of the Colts. All their players are getting healthy at the right time and the chemistry between Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad has never been better.
Pick: Panthers

Detroit Lions (0-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
I believe that this will be the season that a team goes winless. Yes, I think we will see the first 0-16 team in NFL history. I think the Bengals have too much talent to lose all of their games. I also don’t think the AFC is good enough to prevent both the Bengals or Texans from earning a win through the entire season. That leaves the two teams in the NFC. We’ll talk more about the Rams later in the week, but I think their schedule allows them to get a couple wins. If nothing else, they should win a couple in the NFC West. The Lions are the best option, and I’m predicting right now that they will lose every game this season. Which of course means they’ll win this week. You’re welcome Detroit.
Pick: Vikings

Chicago Bears (3-2)(-2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
I said a week ago that the Cowboys win at Lambeau was probably the best of their first three victories because of the degree of difficultly of winning in Green Bay. However, with the Falcons dominating performance against the Packers on the road, that win has been greatly diminished. The Falcons are not as good as their 3-2 record indicates. However, a win in this game, combined with upcoming games against the injured Eagles and the mess out in Oakland, could make it possible for this team to be 5-3 going into the halfway point of the season. I don’t think it happen, but anything’s possible.
Pick: Bears

Miami Dolphins (2-2)(-3) vs. Houston Texans (0-4)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
It won’t be long before some team figures out how to stop the direct snap play that Miami has been running with Ronnie Brown. My guess is a fast Texans defense is exactly the unit to do the trick. Matt Schuab should be back from his illness and I think Houston grabs win #1.
Pick: Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) vs. Denver Broncos (4-1)(-3.5)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
I think it’s safe to say the Jaguars are the best 2-3 team in the league (and there are a bunch of candidates to choose from). I keep waiting for Jacksonville to snap out of their doldrums and start climbing the ladder in the AFC. They are quickly running out of time and their schedule doesn’t help them. With Tennessee at 5-0, and Indianapolis a game away from jumping back into the thick of things, a loss here would doom Jacksonville. I’ll pick them here, but I’ll cut my ties with a loss.
Pick: Jaguars

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)(-5.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
With Brian Westbrook injured, the Eagles offense has no playmaker that opposing defenses have to be worried about. And when the San Francisco 49ers have more playmakers than the team they’re playing, that’s saying something. Without Westbrook, or with an injured Westbrook, the Eagles can lose any game. Even this one.
Pick: Eagles, 49ers cover

Dallas Cowboys (4-1)(-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
It’s all starting to unravel in Big D, isn’t it? Just like I predicted. First the Redskins go down to Texas and embarrass the Cowboys. The loss was followed by yet another Terrell Owens mini-drama. Then the Cowboys barely survive a visit from the winless Bengals. And just a couple of days ago, Pacman Jones acted like…well, Pacman Jones…and gets into a fight with his bodyguard. For those scoring at home, that is altercation #13 that Jones has been involved in when the police have been called. It’s a good thing the Cowboys have good citizens like Tank Johnson to tell the media which players are acting classy after games. So Tank, what do you think of Jones beating up his team-appointed body guard? Is that classy? Is that the behavior Rock Cartwright should try to emulate? All we’re missing in Dallas is for one of the players to call-out Wade Phillips in public, then the shit will really start rolling downhill. I think we’re only a few weeks away from that happening.
Pick: Cowboys, Cardinals cover

Green Bay Packers (2-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-3)(-2.5)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
I’m not taking Aaron Rodgers anywhere until he proves that he can beat someone outside of the bad NFC North. The wins against Minnesota and Detroit just aren’t cutting it. Mike Holmgren will go out in his final season with a win against his former team.
Pick: Seahawks

New England Patriots (3-1) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-3)(-5.5)
8:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
This is the hardest game of the week to pick. I really think that Vegas is devaluing the Patriots based on one (albeit significant) injury. With Tom Brady, they’re probably an 8-10 point favorite. They are also overvaluing the Chargers. A couple of weeks ago, when the Chargers defense was in the bottom half of the league, all the “experts” said that it was just an aberration and at the end of the season, the Chargers D would be in the top 10 statistically. Well, the Chargers are still 28th in total defense. I think that’s about where the Chargers D will be at the end of the season. They are giving up an awful lot of yards to some really bad offenses. I’m tempted to go with New England, but I think San Diego will use revenge as their motivation for the win.
Pick: Chargers

MONDAY

New York Giants (5-0)(-8) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-3)
8:30 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Will somebody beat the Giants please? Cleveland can do it, right? They’re coming off a bye week, so they had seven extra days to get ready for their season’s most pivotal game. So the Browns should take care of it. Right? Somebody? Please help.
Pick: Giants, Browns cover

Bye Week: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee

The Redskins are 13.5-pt favorites against the Rams. Really? Are the Skins that good or the Rams that bad? We’ll discuss shortly.