Saturday, October 11, 2008

Rams at Redskins: Silence Of The Rams



St. Louis Rams (0-4) vs. Washington Redskins (4-1)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field

I won’t go into too much detail about the last few weeks, since they’ve been hashed out on this page and on every other sports media page on the world wide net. The Redskins are a pretty good team. They are certainly among the top 5 or 6 in the NFL as of Week 6. A case could be made that they are the best team in the NFL so far (I won’t make it…not yet). For the past four weeks, they have done well in just about every facet of the game.

The key stat, and I know it’s been mentioned to death by now, is zero offensive turnovers. Combine that with being the 6th least penalized team (penalties a game since you have to factor in other team’s bye weeks) in the league, and the Skins, for the first time in many years, aren’t beating themselves. It has been the Redskins turn to sit back, wait for their opponents to make all the mistakes, and then take advantage of them. As much as all the analysts want to talk about “defense winning championships” and “you need a veteran quarterback” and other such nonsense, the best teams in the NFL are usually the ones that don’t beat themselves. Look at the Giants last season. They didn’t have the best offense or defense in the league. They certainly didn’t have a good coach. But from mid-December to the Super Bowl, they didn’t turn the ball over a whole lot. And they kept winning.

The Redskins offense is 6th in the NFL, but well behind the top four statistical units. The defense ranks 13th. Those are both solid numbers. You can go 10-6 in this league with the 6th best offense and the 13th best defense. But if you don’t turn the ball over, and your opponent does, then those rankings will be deceiving. Last season, the Redskins were -5 in the turnover department and were in the middle of the pack in terms of penalties. This season, the Redskins are +6 in turnovers and are one of the best teams in avoiding flags. The only team in the NFL that compares favorably with the Redskins in both categories this season is Tennessee. They’re 5-0. The Redskins aren’t flukes. They’re protecting the ball and not doing anything stupid. That’s how you win NFL games.

Also helping the Redskins is the offensive play-calling. Jim Zorn continues to win over Redskins fans by the tens-of-thousands with his aggressive offense. Most in the media are still calling this a West Coast Offense, but it really isn’t. At least not in the truest sense. This is some sort of WCO hybrid, that is combined with the old-school Joe Gibbs power running attack. I called it a mix between the WCO and the Coryell-Gibbs offense of the mid-80’s. Whatever it is, it’s working. It doesn’t hurt that Zorn is showing confidence in his offense by allowing the Redskins to go for it in key 4th down situations instead of playing conservative, punting and waiting for the defense to wrap up a win.

The scary thing, if you are the rest of the NFL, is that the Redskins haven’t played a complete game yet. The past two weeks they haven’t shown up for the first quarter, and they didn’t show up for most of the 4th in Dallas. As good as this team has looked, they could be even better. They left a lot of points in the redzone against Dallas, and they didn’t wake up against the Eagles until halftime. That is encouraging for Redskins fans because despite the hot start, the Skins actually have room for improvement.

So now that the Redskins have gotten around the potential minefield at the top of their schedule, they get to face the Rams, Browns and Lions in the next three weeks. Those three teams are a combined 1-11. The Rams and Lions are easily the two worst teams in the NFL. This is a perfect opportunity for the Skins to get a jump on the rest of the NFC and NFC East. But as all Redskins fans know, the Skins have a long history of playing down to their competition and losing games they have no business losing. So for those who are already putting the Redskins at 7-1 are getting waaaaaaaayyyyyy ahead of themselves.

The Rams are 0-4 have been outscored 147-43. Two of the losses have come to the Bills and Giants, two teams that are a combined 8-1. The other two losses came against the Eagles and Seahawks. Those teams are a combined 3-6. With the exception of the Giants, the Rams haven’t exactly lost to world-beaters.

Figuring that things couldn’t get much worse, the Rams fired coach Scott Linehan during their bye week and replaced him with assistant coach and former Saints coach Jim Haslett. I’m not sure why the Rams promoted Haslett, since he was in charge of the defense that gave up 147 points in four games and was one of the main reasons Linehan was fired in the first place. Doesn’t exactly smell like the qualifications for a promotion to me. Hiring Haslett as an assistant was Linehan’s biggest mistake. First, Haslett completely took down a defensive unit that wasn’t strong to begin with. Second, when time came for a change, the move to Haslett (a former coach) was more attractive for Rams upper management than promoting a no-name coordinator. So essentially, Linehan hired his replacement. I’ve never understood why head coaches do this. Why would you hire a former coach to be your assistant? Why would you hire someone who is qualified to take your job if you fail? Why would Jack Del Rio hire Gregg Williams? Why would Norv Turner hire Ted Cottrell. Why would anyone hire Mike Martz? The instant the coach screws up, all the owner or general manager has to do is get rid of him and let everyone move up a notch. It’s the easiest way to get rid of a coach with the least amount of adjustment problems. Haslett isn’t a permanent replacement, but he can certainly do better than Linehan and he has the ability to get the Rams through the season. If you are going to hire a coordinator, hire someone who is proven, but young and with no NFL head coaching experience. Or you hire someone like Jim Johnson or Monte Kiffin, who has no interest in becoming a head coach or has a personality problem that won’t allow an owner to hire them. You don’t hire a capable replacement in the NFL. It makes it too easy for the owner to get rid of you.

The Rams still possess Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson and Torry Holt. I don’t want to hear about this team not having talent. That’s a better triple threat than half of the NFL. Linehan made a lot of mistakes managing the offense, namely making the genius decision two weeks ago to bench Bulger in favor of 52-year-old Trent Green. The offensive line is also in shambles and the Rams did basically nothing in the off-season to fix it. So it’s not like no one could see a season like this coming. The Rams are dead last in points per game, first downs and third down conversions. They are 30th in the NFL in yards per game. They are 31st in points allowed per game and yards allowed per game (thank goodness for the Lions defense). The Rams have been horrendous. In fact, that might be an insult to the word horrendous. It’s been much worse than that. It has been a complete and total failure on both sides of the ball for St. Louis in their first four games.

So you may ask why I am worried. Well, despite the terrible record and stats, St. Louis is better than those numbers indicate. There is no way the Rams are going to keep up a pace of getting outscored 37-11. Those numbers are going to even out somewhat over the course of the year. Above, I mentioned that the Redskins had room for improvement despite their 4-1 start. In essence, the Rams have played as bad as humanly possible for the first four weeks. The Redskins haven’t hit their pinnacle, but the Rams have hit rock bottom. It can’t get any worse. It can only get better. It may not get better in leaps and bounds, but it will get better.

The injury bug is starting to catch up with the Redskins as well. Jason Taylor is expected to play, but he has a bad calf on one leg and a bad knee on the other. Not sure how effective he’ll be. Shawn Soft Springs is looking to shed his soft label by playing “hurt” this week as well. Marcus Washington and Cornelius Griffin are both expected to miss the game. So that’s two starters out for the defense and a two more playing well under 100%.

Finally, everyone knows the Redskins are supposed to win this game. That includes the fans, players and even Vegas, which has established the Skins as 13.5 point favorites. It is only natural for a team like the Redskins, coming off two huge wins on the road against division opponents, to have a let down against a poor team outside of the NFC East. And even with the coaching change, the Rams are coming off a bye week and have had 14 days to prepare for the Skins. There isn’t a lot of footage on Jim Zorn’s offense, but the Rams will probably have the best understanding of what Zorn is trying to do compared to the rest of the teams Washington’s faced so far. Whether they can stop the Skins or not is still to be determined. Overlook the Rams at your own risk. Don’t pencil 7-1 in to the standings yet.

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