NFL Week 5: Call In The Bomb Squad

I was 8-4 last week…that’s much better. The overall record limps ahead to 31-25. Against the spread, a 7-5 week gets me closer to the .500 mark at 27-28-1. Both of these marks are still well below my average, so with the recent turnaround, I have a good feeling about this week. As always, don’t use the following picks for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Indianapolis Colts (1-2)(-3) vs. Houston Texans (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Barring any more hurricanes, tornados and floods, the Texans will finally get to play their home opener. This game will then be followed by three more home games, meaning Houston won’t have to leave home until right before Election Day. That’s not a bad deal considering the Texans’ record and need for wins. The Colts have only lost to Houston once since the Texans came into existence, and they’re coming off their bye. One of my favorite stats is teams coming off byes that face teams not coming off byes win nearly 75% of the time. Bodes will for Indy.
Pick: Colts

Tennessee Titans (4-0)(-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
I have picked the Titans only once in four weeks and I haven’t picked the Ravens to win yet. So I’m 2-5 with these teams. The Ravens finally played a half decent team and managed to look half decent themselves. Still, Joe Flacco did relatively nothing until the final drive of the fourth quarter. In fact, you could say he cost them the game with inability to muster offense with good field position and his fumble that turned into a defensive touchdown. He also did nothing during the first possession of overtime. I’ll admit that he’s been much better than what I thought he’d be, but that’s not saying much since I thought he’d be Kyle Boller Part II. He’s making too many mistakes and the Titans defense appears to be legit. Could spell trouble at home.
Pick: Titans

San Diego Chargers (2-2)(-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-2)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
This game has upset written all over it. First, the Chargers have to fly across country to play a game at 10:00 am PST. Secondly, they have to play a team coming off their bye. Finally, the Dolphins may not be as bad as originally expected. A win against New England may not mean as much as it has in the past, but the way Miami embarrassed them in Foxboro was impressive nonetheless. However, I have a feeling Miami will try that single-wing play they ran effectively against the Pats. Teams learn quickly in the NFL, and I doubt the Chargers will allow a gimmick like that to succeed again.
Pick: Chargers, Dolphins cover

Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-1)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
The Chiefs win last week didn’t prove that Kansas City is respectable, it proved that Denver (especially their defense) was a bit overrated. Meanwhile, Carolina fans are probably sending thank you letters to the NFL-schedule makers for giving them the Falcons-Chiefs back-to-back home combo to help get healthy in a tough NFC South.
Pick: Panthers

Chicago Bears (2-2)(-3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Even though they tried hard, the Bears couldn’t blow a fourth quarter lead for the third straight week. All it took was a miraculous goal line stand at home against a team playing their third-string running back. Well done!

Before their bye week, the Lions decided to fire Matt Millen. While this move should have been done about three seasons ago, it’s unlikely that Detroit will be any better this season or in the near future. This team doesn’t have one good offensive lineman. Not one. It will probably take at least two or three off-seasons for Detroit to get the pieces in place on the line, and that’s assuming that the Lions hire a competent GM who knows what he’s doing. But by then, Roy Williams will probably have been traded and Jon Kitna will either be retired or paralyzed as a result of playing behind such a terrible offensive line. Then the Lions will have to find a quarterback. Not to mention the problems on defense. There are way too many holes and not enough off-seasons to fix them.
Pick: Bears

Atlanta Falcons (2-2) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2)(-5)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
So when the Packers were 2-0, and everyone was talking about a potential Dallas-Green Bay NFC Championship game, who was the one person who told you that the Packers hadn’t played a decent team yet and it was likely that Aaron Rodgers would crumble against teams from the top half of the NFL? That was me…and I was right.
Pick: Packers

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) vs. New York Giants (3-0)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
As I learned earlier this year, if you see the Seahawks anywhere on the East side of the Mississippi, and they’re only a one score underdog, you take the home team and the points. Seattle simply can’t win on the East Coast. The line is low because Vegas is putting too much stock in the Giants miserable performance against Cincinnati and the suspension of Plaxico Burress. Neither one will factor in to this game.
Pick: Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Denver Broncos (3-1)(-3.5)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
This is the most difficult game of the week to pick. I could easily go either way. The Broncos defense can’t stop anybody…and that includes the Chiefs. The Bucs have been winning despite turning the ball over way too much. Brian Griese has thrown six picks in the last two games. So when in doubt, go with the home team.
Pick: Broncos

New England Patriots (2-1)(-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
It’s been two weeks since the Patriots got manhandled at home by a team that went 1-15 last season. As enjoyable as that was and as tempting as it may be to pick the upset here, it doesn’t make much sense. The only real reason to take a chance is the cross country trip New England will make for the first time in two seasons. The only game they played West of the Mississippi last season was the Super Bowl. Anyway, the Patriots are not as bad as they appeared in that Miami game. Even without Tom Brady, there is no way they are going to lose back-to-back games against the Dolphins and 49ers.
Pick: Patriots

Buffalo Bills (4-0) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-2)(PK)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
The Vegas line has hovered around even or 1-point for most of the week. The reason is that Vegas still has no confidence in Buffalo. While the Bills are clearly a team to be reckoned with in the AFC East because of what has transpired in the season’s first four weeks, I too have my doubts. The Bills track record on Western road trips this decade has been abysmal. They should have blown out Oakland and St. Louis, but had to overcome double-digit leads in both games to win. Their 4-0 record is mostly because of a schedule that has seen them play teams with a combined 4-11 record. Win a game here, on the road, across the country to go into the bye week at 5-0, then we’ll talk.
Pick: Cardinals

Cincinnati Bengals (0-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)(-17)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
It turns out the Cowboys may be a bit overrated…hmm? I’ll get into it more during my Redskins preview, but it’s clear that the Cowboys’ issues I pointed out last week will be the ultimate downfall of this team in the first round of the playoffs. Plus, on top of the loss, it appears the T.O. Timebomb is about ready to go off. And when he explodes, there is no way Wade Phillips, Tony Romo or the Dallas Bomb Sqaud will be able to contain him. Unfortunately, the Cowboys get to play Cincinnati, which means they’ll get an easy win and most likely defuse the inevitable blowup for at least a few weeks.
Pick: Cowboys, Bengals cover

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)(-4)
8:15 p.m. Alltel Stadium
The Steelers played really well the first two weeks and have looked really bad the last two. The opposite is true for Jacksonville. For Pittsburgh, they have a stretch coming up that includes the Giants, Redskins, Colts and Chargers. If they don’t win here, they could be looking at 5-5 going into the Thanksgiving weekend. With all the players they’re missing, and with all the players that are active but seriously banged up, I don’t see how a healthy Jaguars team that beat Pittsburgh twice last season, could lose at home. I think Jacksonville uses the monster combo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to bully their way over .500.
Pick: Jaguars

MONDAY

Minnesota Vikings (1-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-2)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
The Saints have a nice home game against Oakland next week and two games against Kansas City and Atlanta waiting for them in November. A win here not only puts the Saints in good shape in the NFC South and the NFC in general, they deal a serious blow to whatever chances the Vikings have left in the conference. Minnesota’s schedule also gets easier after this game, but an 1-4 hole may be too deep to dig out of.
Pick: Saints

Bye Week: Cleveland, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

Skins hit the road again for a much shorter trip and visit a more annoying fanbase. That’s coming soon.