Maryland Basketball: Oliver Twist

Maryland Terrapins (14-5, 4-1 ACC) vs.
NR/#21 Clemson Tigers (15-6, 3-4 ACC)
Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC

I could get used to winning by 20+ points. I really could. I would run out of things to complain about, but I bet it would be worth it.

Let’s see…comfortable 1st half lead combined with convincing 2nd half. Check. 17 made field goals in the first half vs. only 16 attempted field goals by Miami. Check. Not fooling around with a less talented team. Check. Greivis Vasquez having another great game while at the same time not forcing the office to be reliant on him. Check. Jordan Williams showing more signs of growth while playing against a polished big man. Check. Double-digit efforts from several players. Check. Team rebounding. Check. Dominating the hustle stats. Check. Sole possession of first place in the ACC standings. Big check.

You really have to nitpick to find something to complain about. The only thing that worries me right now has been the rotation. Despite the chance to go nine-deep, Gary is only applying an eight or even seven-man rotation now. James Padgett has nearly disappeared. At times, Dino Gregory and/or Adrian Bowie have seen a severe decrease in minutes. Sure it’s working now. But if we never learn anything else from Ratface and the Nerds, it’s that a deep bench is a necessity in college basketball. Like the past five seasons, the Cheer Sheeters are trotting out a seven-man team. By Valentine’s Day, expect the shooting percentages to go way down (even though they aren’t that high to begin with). So that should be a warning to Maryland. A seven-man rotation may be working now, but be very careful when the calendar flips to February.

Playing two games a week against conference competition can certainly wear down a team. Right now the Terps check in with at 48.7% from the floor. That’s over 50% in conference play. Those numbers will certainly go down (mostly because Maryland, or any other team, can’t possibly shoot 50% an entire conference season). However, that number will plummet if the Terps don’t go with a consistent eight-man rotation. Nine would be preferable. I’m not saying that Padgett deserves 20 minutes a game. But right now he’s averaging almost 12 minutes per game overall and only 6.5 minutes per game in conference play. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be getting 10-12 minutes. Bowie’s numbers have fluctuated as well. Twice he’s seen only 11 minutes per game in conference play. He and Cliff Tucker need to play a minimum of 15 per conference contest so Vasquez and Hayes are able to keep their legs rested. Again, it’s nitpicking now. But if the trend continues, there could be problems as soon as mid-February.

The only other thing that I can complain about it the schedule. Obviously there’s nothing Maryland can do about that. But despite the 4-1 conference start, you’ll have a hard time finding analysts who believe the Terps have staying power. Let’s be honest, their four wins haven’t come against the best the ACC has to offer. At least that’s the thought process this week. The definition of a good ACC team in the 09-10 season changes week-to-week. The home win over Florida State was solid. No one’s going to argue that right now. The other three wins have come against Boston College, NC State and Miami. It appears that Miami is on their way to a last place finish. NC State made noise last week against Duke, but that appears to be the exception for Sid’s Kids this season, not the rule. State also seems to be on their way to another Lowe finish. BC was also ticketed for a 3-13 conference finish a few weeks ago, but the Eagles are already at 3-4. So the win against Boston College, on the road by 16, is starting to look better and better. Especially after BC’s win over Clemson.

Ah, Clemson. This game was supposed to mark the beginning of a tough stretch for the Terps: at Clemson, at FSU then home against UNC. We know FSU is decent. The Heels are much better than their record indicates. But what about the Tigers? Like most of the conference, the answer to that question at this point is a resounding “I don’t know”. Out of the conference, Clemson has lost to Illinois and Texas A&M. They own a one-point win over Butler. Their win over South Carolina looks a lot better this week than it did last. The Tigers three conference wins come against BC, NC State and UNC. Very similar to Maryland. They’ve also lost to BC, been beaten twice by the Dookies and lost a close one to Georgia Tech. In other words, Clemson has beaten the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the ones they should have lost to. With the exception of Boston College.

The game against Tech was Exhibit A of why Oliver Purnell is a terrible coach. The game was tied with about five seconds remaining. Georgia Tech had the ball and Paul Hewitt called a timeout. During the timeout, the first and last thing I would tell my team as head coach would be no fouls. Don’t put Tech at the line with the game tied. What does Clemson do? Foul. They lost by two. You could try to blame it on the players, but this type of stuff happens way too regularly at Clemson.

Just like the annual January swoon. This is at least the fifth year in a row that the Tigers have started the year great, earned a high ranking, and tanked the conference schedule. The first two seasons Clemson bottomed out so badly that they missed the NCAA tournament. That includes the 2007 season, when the Tigers started 17-0 and were the last undefeated team in the country. They finished 21-10 and went to the NIT. The last two seasons, the Tigers have managed to do just enough in conference play to make the NCAA Tournament. However, they have yet to win a tournament game. They lost to under-seeded Villanova two years ago, and blew an early lead to awful Michigan last year. There has been way too much talent in Clemson the last few years for this team to only be 0-2 in NCAA Tournament play. The one constant is the coach. Purnell, who doesn’t fall far from the Gary Williams coaching tree, has routinely been a bottom-half of the league coach.

That doesn’t mean that Purnell can’t recruit. He’s proven that he can. The Tigers team from two seasons ago was loaded. Cliff Hammonds, KC Rivers and James Mays were all on that squad. How none of them ever won a tournament game can be explained by the coaching staff. Purnell has now had Demontez Stitt for three seasons and Trevor Booker for four. He’s even started a pipeline to the Booker family. Devin Booker is now a freshman for the Tigers. It’s my understanding that there are at least two more Booker kids on the way. So Purnell has talent. He just doesn’t know what to do with it.

This season, Clemson has been too reliant on the elder Booker and Stitt. That’s been a problem recently since Stitt’s been battling a foot injury for the past month or so. He missed the BC game earlier in the week. Even if he plays, and there’s no guarantee that he will, he certainly won’t be able to attack the rim like he usually does. If Stitt can’t attack the rim, then he’s no better or no more dangerous than a regular point guard. Andre Young will start in his place if Stitt can’t go, and Young isn’t scaring anybody in the ACC yet. And as good as Clemson is inside, if Stitt can’t get Booker and company the ball, then the only way Booker can make an impact is on second chances.

Still, Maryland has lost two in a row to this outfit. That includes a major beatdown last year at Littlejohn. The Terps haven’t been able to handle Clemson’s size the past two years. As soon as Maryland collapses inside, the Tigers kick the ball out and start hitting threes. Fortunately Terrence Oglesby isn’t in South Carolina anymore, but Young, Stitt and David Potter are all decent shooters. Clemson still poses several matchup problems for Maryland, the most concerning being Booker’s athleticism and skill inside.

It will be interesting to see what Maryland does in a true road environment (BC’s half empty arena and the sometimes tomb-like atmosphere at the Joel don’t count). Littlejohn has gotten a lot of hype of the last few weeks, some of it undeserved. I never thought that it was a tough place to play, especially considering how many game the Tigers lost there in the late-90’s and early-00’s. But Littlejohn will be full and it will be loud. Other than then their trip to Bloomington, the Terps have avoided tough opposing arenas so far this season.

It will also be interesting to see how the Terps respond if they fall behind early. Maryland has cruised the last few weeks thanks in large part to big early leads. If they are trailing at halftime, or in the second half, can they recover like they did against Wake? Or was that more of a fluke? Last season, Maryland had a knack for falling behind by six or seven points, then forcing bad shots or passes to make the hole deeper. That didn’t happen against the Deacons, but did happen against Cincinnati and Wisconsin. Hopefully Maryland doesn’t fall behind and they continue their hot streak. Stitt will probably play, but I can’t see him being 100%. I’ve gone back and forth on this one since Tuesday. I think Maryland loses to FSU next week, but I’ll ride the hot hand Sunday.

Maryland 76
Clemson 73


Elsewhere in the ACC…

A 5-1 midweek now has me at 16-7 for the ACC schedule. Several teams step outside the conference this weekend (including Georgia Tech’s interesting schedule choice against Divison II Kentucky State), leaving me only three other games to choose from.

Florida State at Boston College
I’m picking against BC despite their win over Clemson earlier in the week and despite the fact that Oliver Purnell and Leonard Hamilton are basically the same coach.
Pick: Florida State 71, Boston College 67

Virginia Tech at Miami
Virginia Tech may be the most unimpressive 16-3 team in the country. They have played nobody. They have beaten nobody. They barely escaped Charlottesville with a win. By the way, I was busy Thursday night and missed most of NIT battle. When a friend told me someone had been ejected from the game early in the 2nd for swinging elbows, I only needed one guess as to who it was. Seriously, could it have been anybody other than Jeff Allen? I even correctly guessed that male-bimbo Karl Hess was responsible for throwing him out. Oh, I dislike both of them so much. I’m sure Maryland will see Hess just in time for the Dook game.
Pick: Miami 64, Virginia Tech 59

Virginia at North Carolina
The Hoos are starting to come back down to Earth following their 3-0 start. That gentle tumble they’ve taken in the last two games is about to become a freefall.
Pick: North Carolina 85, Virginia 65

Maryland Basketball: Let The Good Times Roll

Miami Hurricanes (15-4, 1-4 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (13-5, 3-1 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Like I said last week, this bizzaro Terps team that keeps showing up is a welcomed change from what we’ve seen the past few years. They make open shots. They play defense. They rebound relatively well. They put mediocre ACC teams away early, then finish them off in the second half. When was the last time Maryland won back-to-back conference games by a combined 40 points? The championship season? The year after it? It’s been a while.

A year ago – heck, a month ago – there is no way the Terps go to Boston and convincingly put away BC. I don’t care how bad the Eagles may be this year, Maryland would have found a way to make the game interesting. And there was certainly no way the Terps beat NC State at home by 24. Even though they own State, and they probably would have won regardless, there was no way they’d put the game away by the 15-minute mark of the second half. It reminds me of the Terps teams of 10 years ago. Once upon a time, Maryland didn’t fool around with the dregs of the ACC. They won handedly.

It only took three months, but this team is finally learning not to be dependent on the play of Greivis Vasquez. You can certainly look at his 19 points and 5 assists as the reason Maryland won. Or you can look at his effort and realize it’s the reason Maryland won easily. The rest of the team put the Terrapins in position to blow out NC State, and Vasquez finished them off. Landon Milbourne continues his quietly good season. He chipped in 18 and 5. Cliff Tucker had 11 off the bench. Sean Mosley reappeared and added 13. Jordan Williams had 9 and 9, but the timing of the nine points was important. He had two big baskets early, then stopped two different NC State mini-runs later in the game. He also shut down Tracy Smith, who scored most of his points with the game already out of hand. Dino Gregory even made a guest appearance and added 8 and 6. Make no mistake about it; the win over the Wolfpack was a team win.

It’s a quick turnaround for Maryland (and myself) as they host a Miami team that usually gives them problems. A couple of weeks ago, the Hurricanes were ranked. I still can’t figure out why. Miami checks in at 15-4…but all four losses have come in conference. Not only that, two of those losses came to Boston College. I’d love to hear Frank Haith’s explanation for that. They’ve also lost convincingly to both Virginia teams. They managed to beat Wake by one at home. Their best win out of conference came at home to Minnesota in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a game which they held on to win by five. Other than that, their best non-conference wins came against Pepperdine and South Carolina. Don’t be confused by the win over “Nova” on their schedule. That was Nova Southeastern, a division 2 baseball powerhouse near Coral Gables. Not to be confused with Villanova, a division 1 basketball powerhouse in Philadelphia. Their schedule strength is right around 250th in the nation. So if you don’t see a reason for a national ranking, rest assured that you’re not alone.

The problem right now for Miami is they really don’t have a go to scorer. When Guillermo Diaz left a few years ago, Jack McClinton was able to take his place. Haith has yet to find a replacement for McClinton. Miami has decent size. Dwayne Collins is a good player. Four other big men see significant playing time. As usual, Haith can use a revolving door underneath the hoop. The problem is no one can get these guys the ball. There is no Diaz or McClinton to draw the defense and distribute. That’s why most of Collins 13 points per game have come via his 8.7 rebounds. Jamie Dews is the closest thing Haith has to a McClinton. He’s simply not the scorer that either Diaz or McClinton were. He hasn’t warranted double teams. His drives usually don’t get the defense out of place. He’s certainly not the passer that McClinton was. Villanova transfer Malcolm Grant has been asked to fulfill the point guard spot. He’s more of a tradition point guard than a McClinton. He’s basically got a 2/1 assist/turnover ratio, but he doesn’t do a lot of scoring. They also try Durand Scott at times. Scott is a better passer than Grant, but is even less of a scorer. But between Grant and Dews, they haven’t done a decent enough job filling the void McClinton left behind.

The one guy who worries me is Adrian Thomas. He’s a 6’7” forward who can shoot. Doesn’t do a whole lot inside, but can create matchup problems on the perimeter. Think more a Tahj Holden type player than a tradition forward. He shoots 41% from beyond the arc. Milbourne will probably get the assignment, but he’s been burned on the perimeter at times this season. That also means Jordan Williams will be all alone inside to contend with Collins. Williams has shown marked improvement the last few weeks, but it’s not fair to ask him to face a senior like Collins alone. It may be worth giving Tucker more playing time in this game and letting him matchup with Thomas.

That potential problem aside, the Terps backcourt matches up just as well against Miami as they did against State or BC. Expect big games from Vasquez and at least one other guard. The Canes are going to try to isolate Dews, let him score, and clear the paint for Collins. Maryland has done very well this season shutting down teams initial scoring threats. Vasquez and Eric Hayes should be more than up to the task of limiting Dews. If they keep up their recent rebounding efforts, they should also be able to neutralize Collins. Miami is going to try to slow this game down and out-physical Maryland. I expect it to be closer than most think. However, all Maryland needs to do is look at the next couple of weeks of their schedule to see how big a game this is. Hopefully they play with the same sense of urgency they’ve had the last five games.

Maryland 76
Miami 68

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Now 11-6 overall predicting conference games. Here are the middle week contests:

Clemson at Boston College
Nothing will surprise me anymore in ACC play this season. Not even Clemson going to Chestnut Hill and losing. Something tells me the Tigers won’t score only 47 points again and won’t fall to the Eagles. But it wouldn’t surprise me.
Clemson 74, Boston College 59

North Carolina at NC State
The Wolfpack have already pulled their upset. Now it’s time for Sid’s Kids to slide slowly back to 5-11 in ACC play.
Pick: North Carolina 83, NC State 72

Florida State at Duke
Without former Duke destroyer Toney Douglass, I doubt Soloman Alabi and company can go into Durham and win. Derwin Kitchen just doesn’t have the same intimidation factor.
Pick: Duke 76, Florida State 60

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
I would love to see Georgia Tech and Georgetown play in the NCAA Tournament. It would feature two teams with dominant frontcourts that are undermined by their pea-brain coaches who don’t yell at their guards when they jack up threes all game long.
Pick: Georgia Tech 78, Wake Forest 74

Virginia Tech at Virginia
Commonwealth Clash should be better known as Battle For NIT Positioning. I guess it doesn’t have the same ring to it.
Pick: Virginia Tech 68, Virginia 62

The Predictor Top 25: 1/25/10

The first official Top 25 of the season, and you’ll notice it looks somewhat different than the AP’s and certainly much different than the joke poll ESPN insists on continuing (even though they are the only ones who use it). I think doing it this late in the season allows me to watch as many teams as possible, and doesn’t necessarily force me to go by records or pre-season expectations alone.

1. Kansas (18-1): Despite the one loss, I think this is a much more complete team than Kentucky and they’ll have veteran leadership when it counts.
2. Kentucky (19-0): I know they’re undefeated. But they haven’t played anyone. Their two best wins came against UNC and UConn…and neither one of those teams are close to first in their conferences. SEC isn’t going to offer UK many challenges.
3. Villanova (18-1): Very well could be ahead of Kentucky. May be ahead of them next week.
4. Texas (17-2): Had a rough week, but lost twice on the road in tough atmospheres. Still one of the Top 5 overall teams in the country.
5. Michigan State (17-3): The Spartans started slow (as they usually do), but have dominated the Big 10 (again, as they usually do). Win at Minnesota was a great road victory.
6. Syracuse (19-1): Like Kentucky, just not sold on these guys. They are too young to win games down the stretch this season. Wouldn’t be surprised if they fell on their face today against Georgetown.
7. Kansas State (16-3): The Big 12 is unquestionably the best conference in basketball this season. K-State owns the best conference win so far. That’s why they are this high.
8. Purdue (16-3): Not sure why the Boilers fell off the radar. Like many teams, they went through a little bit of a slump. They recovered this week with two solid conference wins.
9. Georgetown (15-3): Hate to admit it, and I will punish the Hoyas in this poll after their next loss, but this could be the best team in the Big East. Little Racist III is finally allowing the offense to center around Greg Monroe. Only took him a year-and-a-half.
10. BYU (20-1): Stormin’ Mormons probably not going to move up too high in this poll, but the overall record is hard to ignore. Other than their recent game against San Diego State, they’ve been blowing teams out for the past month.
11. West Virginia (15-3): No bad losses, but I would love to see these guys put together a full 40 minutes. They played a good 2nd half against and underrated Marshall team and Ohio State this past week. Otherwise they would have been 13-5.
12. Temple (17-3): Two of their losses have been to Kansas and Georgetown. They’ve handed Villanova their only loss. The Owls may play the best defense in the country. This team is for real.
13. Duke (16-3): Point to that win over Clemson all you want…I’m gonna keep pointing to that 14-point loss to NC State. The same NC State that lost by 24 at Maryland three days later.
14. Gonzaga (16-3): Impressive start for a squad that lost everyone in the offseason. I just don’t see this group of Bulldogs being better than last year’s. Between Matt Bouldin and Elias Harris, this is essentially a two-man team.
15. Tennessee (15-3): The Vols will pad their stats and record in the lousy SEC, but this team won’t scare anyone by the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
16. Wisconsin (16-4): They play ugly basketball, but they keep winning. Like Tennessee, they won’t scare most teams by the first weekend of the tourney.
17. Pittsburgh (15-4): Starting to come back down to Earth after their hot start. Still the same team that lost to Indiana earlier this season.
18. Georgia Tech (14-5): Go ahead, try to figure out the best three or four teams in the ACC. I dare you. Hopefully Paul Hewitt gets out of the way and lets Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors dominate the rest of the season.
19. Clemson (15-5): Blew their chance for a statement win against Duke. The “statement” win over UNC isn’t looking too good right now.
20. Vanderbilt (15-3): Probably the second best team in the SEC behind Kentucky. Hopefully I’ll have an excuse to bump them above Tennessee soon.
21. New Mexico (18-3): The Mountain West is easily better then Pac-10 and probably better than the SEC this season. No reason the polls should have only one MWC team in. A minimum of three should make the NCAA Tournament.
22. Baylor (15-3): I would understand the criticism of my ranking Baylor at all. They’ve had it easy out of conference, and have struggled a bit inside of it. They’ll try to prove me right this week with games against KSU and Texas.
23. Missouri (15-4): Same can be said of Missouri. They’ll get a litmus test game this week at Kansas.
24. UAB (17-2): With Memphis down, the Blazers have stepped up in Conference USA. They own wins over Cincinnati and Butler. They host Tulsa this week in a battle for first in CUSA.
25. Wake Forest (14-4): I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Wake the last two weeks. This team is only going to get better as the season progresses. They got through a killer part of their schedule at 14-4 and 4-2 in conference. That deserves a ranking.

Next 5: Tulsa, Butler, Mississippi State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State

NFL Playoffs: Plenty Of Rest For The Weary

New York Jets (11-7) vs.
Indianapolis Colts (15-2)(-7.5)
3:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
AFC Championship Game

For those who thought that resting players and not going for an undefeated season was the wrong move: it’s time for you idiots to shut up. That means about 95% of the talking heads at ESPN and at any other network. The Colts and Saints both proved this past weekend, and proved convincingly, that the only goal a team should worry about is winning the Super Bowl. A perfect season is nice if it happens. But I know I’d much rather my team went 17-2 and won the Super Bowl then have my team go 18-1 and lose it. Right Patriots fans?

The idea that going 19-0 was a necessity for the Colts or Saints was so foolish from the beginning. Why subject Peyton Manning or Drew Brees to two extra games of hits if it’s not necessary? Why risk it? How many injuries do we see on any given week? The more Manning, or any other starter plays, the more likely they are to get hurt. Manning can’t get hurt sitting on the bench. And since those games that he sat on the bench obviously didn’t matter, then protecting him was the right move. I don’t want to hear anymore about a team being rusty. What’s better…a healthy but rusty Peyton Manning or a Peyton Manning who played all 16 games but now has a broken leg and can’t play in the postseason?

Playing starters down the stretch didn’t work for the San Diego Chargers. So much for those 11 straight wins to end the season. So much for being ESPN’s favorite to win the AFC. Behind the extremely predictable play-calling of Norv Turner, the usual postseason choking from Philip Rivers and an unexpected bad game from Nate Kaeding, the Chargers join 27 other teams on the golf courses. As I say at the beginning of every season, a team that is coached by Norv Turner and a team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers CAN NOT win a Super Bowl. Can’t happen. Turner is way too predictable and conservative in crucial moments…and Rivers is too unpredictable to come through in the clutch. The Chargers are lucky to be located in San Diego. If they were in any other conference but the lousy AFC West, they wouldn’t be on this long sustained run of success.

So as impressed as I was with the Colts performance, I’m equally unimpressed by the Jets. The Chargers were a better team, but because of coaching, quarterbacking and bad kicking, the Jets hung around and eventually took the lead and the win. The Jets didn’t force those missed kicks. The Jets didn’t force Turner to become more conservative than Rush Limbaugh. The Jets may have had something to do with Rivers’ struggles, but their defense wasn’t the only reason that Rivers couldn’t lead San Diego to a win. The Jets were given 20 chances to win that game. New York took advantage of the 20th chance. The Jets didn’t win that game as much as San Diego lost it.

The Jets and Colts play in their biggest game since Super Bowl III. The two teams met earlier this year during Week 16. That was one of the games the Colts didn’t try to win and that was one of the gifts the Jets got on their way to the playoffs (the Cincinnati game being the other). When the Colts starters were in that game, Indianapolis had the lead and control. When Manning and other starters came out, the Jets roughed up the backups and won. Like their win over San Diego, the Jets won because the other team did something to help them. The Colts won’t be as generous this time. By the middle of the 3rd quarter, I don’t see this game being close.
Pick: Colts 34, Jets 17


Minnesota Vikings (13-5) vs.
New Orleans Saints (14-3)(-3.5)
6:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
NFC Championship Game

Last week, everyone and their mothers were picking the Cowboys. That’s why the Vikings were only three point favorites at home despite having a week off, a better team and a slightly better coach. Now, I know the Vikings whooped up on those Cowboys – and staff here at The Predictor is thankful for that – but the Saints should be much more than 3.5-point favorites. Again, New Orleans is at home. Their homefield advantage is greater than Minnesota’s. They are the better team. They have the better coach. Just because Minnesota is everyone’s team of the week doesn’t mean the line should be so low.

As an amazing prognosticator (check my post from January 8th if you doubt my claim), I’m trained to see lines like this and bet the other way. Both teams were impressive last week. The Vikings embarrassed Dallas by 31 points. New Orleans ran up on Arizona by 31 points. New Orleans offense looked much better than Minnesota’s. They moved the ball easier. It didn’t take them a half of football to get comfortable. New Orleans defense was also looked marginally better than Minnesota’s. The Vikings allowed Dallas to move the ball up and down the field in the first half. Had it not been for the original choke artist Tony Romo, the Cowboys probably would have put 13-17 points on the board before halftime. The Saints D had one bad play from scrimmage early, allowed one decent Cardinals drive and that was it. Plus, I would argue that Arizona is a better team than Dallas. So even though both teams won convincingly, the Saints looked much better overall. Add in the homefield advantage at the Superdome, and the Saints really should be a touchdown favorite.

I’ll give the Vikings this: they have a better chance of upsetting New Orleans than the Jets do of upsetting the Colts. The Saints do have one obvious weakness and I have yet to see any from Indianapolis. As I discussed last week, the Saints are a much better team when they have the lead. That may seem obvious, and most teams do play better when they are winning, but it’s crucial for the Saints to go into halftime with a lead. I sort of cringed after Tim Hightower’s long run on the first play from scrimmage. I thought the Saints could be in real trouble. Fortunately, Brees had no problem moving the ball against the Cardinals D. He even got help with a surprise appearance by Reggie Bush (yes, he’s still playing!). New Orleans led by 14 by the end of the first quarter.

The Vikings have a chance if they can control the game early. They need to be on top, or at least within one score at halftime. In order to do this, Minnesota must run the ball in the first half. The Cardinals tried to get in shootout with the Saints last weekend…and it obviously didn’t work. Minnesota must run the ball and keep the Saints offense away from the field as much as possible. Even if Brett Favre has success early and leads a couple of touchdown drives, he won’t be able to keep up with Brees throughout the course of the game. Save Favre’s heroics for the second half if necessary. If Adrian Peterson doesn’t go for 150, I don’t see any way for the Vikings to win.

I don’t have much confidence in Brad Childress allowing Peterson to do that. As we all know by now, he’s not running the team. This is Favre’s team, or at least Favre’s offense. He plays when he wants to play. He runs up the score when he wants to run up the score. Favre is going to do what he wants, when he wants. And Childress is going to let him. This is the wrong game for the Vikings to get away from their strength. The Saints are about to send Favre to his retirement, or his un-retirement, or whatever game Favre plays in the offseason.
Pick: Saints 38, Vikings 16

Maryland Basketball: To The Next 1,000

NC State Wolfpack (13-6, 2-3 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (12-5, 2-1 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

There’s no good time to ever play Longwood, but the Terps played them at the absolute worst time. I understand the reasoning behind it. Gary Williams looked at the ACC schedule before the season started, saw two straight road games and a week off following those games. He’s worries that Maryland is going to lose two in a row on the road and then not play for an entire week. He’s worried the team will have no momentum before their home game against NC State. So he schedules an easy game, a game which Maryland will certainly win, so the Terps can stay in the flow and feel good about themselves heading in to two straight home games.

Fast forward to late January. Maryland gets a solid home win against Florida State. They play exceptionally well at Wake Forest, even though they lose in overtime. Then they blow out Boston College. The Terps sit at 2-1 in the ACC and are feeling pretty good about themselves. Suddenly, that game against Longwood isn’t necessary. Unfortunately, they still have to play it. Maryland takes care of business and blows out Longwood (while I sit there the entire game making offensive “Longwood” jokes). So what’s the problem? Maryland wins by 57, and I spend two hours of my day making somewhat dirty jokes. Seems harmless. Well, Maryland’s RPI falls from 52 to 61, and their strength of schedule crashes from 29 to 54 (they’ve both since gone up a little bit to 57 and 46, thanks in large part to Indiana’s win over Penn State on Thursday night). Maryland could have won that game by 200 points…their RPI and SOS were still going to take a hit. It would have been worth it had Maryland been on a two game losing streak and struggling. However, because of the solid start in ACC play, the game against Longwood did more harm than good. Hindsight is 20/20.

Hopefully the strength of the conference will boost Maryland’s numbers up the rest of the season. Even though the conference appears to be stuck in mediocrity and parity this season, the RPI/SOS numbers are solid. As of Friday, there is only one team that’s above 100 in the RPI, and that’s Miami at 102. Right now, there are only two other teams that are in danger of falling below 100…Virginia (98) and Boston College (94). Everyone else is comfortably within the top 90. Which means that most of Maryland’s wins from here on out will be deemed “quality wins” by the selection committee. The game against Longwood hurt their tournament profile, but the rest of the schedule should help.

Maryland’s next two ACC games are at home. And they are two very winnable games. They’ll also be career games #1,000 and #1,001 for Gary Williams in his coaching career. Gary is currently 637-362. He’s 430-229 during his 21 seasons in College Park. He’s won 28 NCAA tournament games. He owns 71 wins against Top 25 competition. He owns 33 wins against Top 10 teams. He’s beaten the #1 team in the country seven times. Gary owns the 1995 and 2002 mythical regular season ACC titles. He won the actual 2004 ACC title by winning the tournament. And of course, he owns the 2002 National Championship. Not bad at all.

For all those who doubt what Gary Williams means to Maryland, and there’s a small faction of the fanbase (including the current Athletic Director) who have forgotten, this is a man who rescued Maryland from the depths of probation. There is no Maryland basketball without him. There is no National Championship without him. There is no Joe Smith, Keith Booth, Terrance Morris, Juan Dixon, Steve Blake or Greivis Vasquez without him. Obviously the past five years have not been as successful as any of us would have liked. But I’d take the current state of the program over the state of the program in 1989, the year Gary took over. Coaches and programs have bad years. It happens. Even with the powerhouse programs. Jim Boeheim went four years without a tournament win (2004-08). During that stretch the Orange miss the tournament twice. Jim Calhoun whiffed on the postseason completely a couple of seasons ago. The Huskies went 17-14…two games worse than any Maryland season under Gary since 1993. Kentucky was in shambles the past three years before John Calipari and his wads of cash came back to save it. Arizona is struggling to stay afloat at .500 in a terrible conference this season. UCLA, yes the UCLA with more championships than any other program and three straight Final Four appearances from 2006-08, is going to finish below .500 this season and probably next. Even Ratface had two awful seasons in the mid-90’s. At least Gary stuck around through his struggles. Ratface bailed on his 1995 team with “back problems” and “exhaustion” midway through a 2-14 ACC campaign. The worst Gary has done since getting probation off the books was the 19-15 2007-08 season. And the Terps were even on track to make the tournament that year until a late season swoon.

Just look no further than last season. Gary had a team with only one player taller than 6’6” playing in an ACC loaded with future draft picks. He willed that team to the NCAA Tournament and a first round win. I will still argue today, and for a long time, that Gary Williams was the only coach in the entire country that could have made the NCAA Tournament with the Maryland roster last season. Give any other coach in America the roster he had, they’d be lucky to go .500. Gary won a tournament game and got the team within one game of playing for the ACC title. Say what you will about his recruiting, but there is no doubt in my mind that he’s one of the top five game day coaches in college basketball.

Williams’ 1,000th game comes against a team he’s owned for the past five years, the NC State Wolfpack. The Wuffies are still for some reason led by Sidney Lowe. Lowe passed Oliver Purnell, Paul Hewitt and Leonard Hamilton a long time ago as the worst coach in the ACC. Even the addition of Tony Bennett to the conference couldn’t help Lowe escape this dubious honor. This is Sid’s fourth season in the Triangle, and he has a superb 17-36 record in conference play. His best finish came in last year, when the Pack went 6-10 and finished 10th in the ACC. He managed to wriggle his way to a fourth season, and based on what’s happening so far, he may trick NC State into giving him a fifth.

The Wolfpack currently sit at 13-6 and 2-3 in conference. They’ve lost to Clemson, Wake and UVA. Nothing really embarrassing there, but it remains to be seen how good Virginia really is. However, the Pack can howl it up about their two conference wins. They beat Florida State on the road two weeks ago and earlier this week they manhandled Dook. And when I say manhandled, I mean MANHANDLED. They embarrassed the overrated Dookies for pretty much the entire game, despite the 33-26 discrepancy at the free throw line (it was even worse before the Nerds started fouling intentionally). The only thing more embarrassing that Duke’s effort was Sidney’s red blazer.

State also owns out of conference wins against Marquette (ok) and Auburn (meh). They’ve also lost to Northwestern (not terrible), Arizona (usually not bad, but certainly not good this season) and Florida*. The asterisk denotes the fact that NC State lost that game on a 75-foot prayer in overtime. Overall, not a bad slate so far for the Wolfpack. Nothing about this team screams tournament ready, or even top half in the mediocre ACC ready, but there’s still a slight chance they surprise me. The narrow wins over Austin Peay, Elon and Winthrop say otherwise.

The problems for the Wolfpack this year are the same as in years past. The backcourt for State is dreadful. They have no point guard who I would trust with the ball in the second half. Javier Gonzalez continues to try to moonlight at point. And while he averages 4.7 assists per game, he averages 3.5 turnovers as well. That includes a lovely 4 turnover/0 assist performance against Clemson and a 6 turnover/3 assist game against FSU. In fact, the game against Duke was the only ACC game in which Gonzalez had more assists than turnovers. A good backcourt, which the Terps possess, can grab steals and get easy transition points. Maryland is among the best in the nation when it comes to forcing turnovers. The Wolfpack turn the ball over 13 times per game. Big advantage for the Terps there.

Unlike the last three games for Maryland, the Terps are going to face a team that can shoot from outside. Of the four players who typically take three’s for State, three of them shoot 38% or better. Dennis Horner is the best shooter at 42%, but Gonzalez and Scott Wood will take more threes. Both are streaky shooters, but as we saw against Duke, they can both get hot at the wrong time for the opposition. NC State is not great underneath. Tracy Smith, who went for 19 and 9 last year in Raleigh against Maryland, added some muscle in the offseason and is now averaging 17 and 8.6 a game. More impressive from Smith is that average has basically held in ACC play. He had 18 against Virginia, 16 against Clemson and a season-high 23 against the Nerds. The good news for Maryland is that Lowe doesn’t have wave after wave of big men to throw on the court. This team has more in common with BC than with Wake or FSU. Horner, who is 6’9”, only grabs 4.2 boards a game. State relies on their guards for rebounding more than any team in the ACC…and that includes the Terps. If Smith gets in early foul trouble (and he’s had three or more personals in three straight games), the Pack really struggle getting second chance opportunites on the glass.

For Maryland to win the three-quarters court press and the trapping game will have to work. If they can force turnovers, there really should be no problem. The only way Maryland gets in trouble is if they let the Wuffies get out to an early lead and allow State to play a half-court game. Maryland cannot allow Sid the Kid and company to actually think they have momentum coming off their win over the Floor Slappers. I think Maryland’s recent momentum continues and the Wolfpack have a classic let down game.

Maryland 76
NC State 64

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Another 4-2 weekend leads me to an 8-4 overall record in the crazy ACC. I took the week off because Maryland did as well, but I’m back for four more conference games.

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Like the Terps, Virginia Tech’s Chrome Dome scheduled a meaningless out of conference game against North Carolina Central during the week. So far the Hokies have beaten Miami (but who hasn’t) and lost convincingly to UNC and FSU. Home court advantage should be enough to squeak by with ACC win #2.
Pick: Virginia Tech 67, Boston College 61

Virginia at Wake Forest
This undefeated Virginia fad has to end eventually…right? Note to Dino Gaudio: stop Sylven Landesberg. You do that, you win. This UVA team is similar in many ways to the Singletary team of two seasons ago. Except Landesberg is nowhere near as good as Singletary was. Shouldn’t be hard to beat these guys on the road.
Pick: Wake Forest 75, Virginia 62

Duke at Clemson
The Great White Nerds are 0-2 on the road in the conference, and 0-3 if you count the Wisconsin game. Nothing in their three previous true road games have suggested to me that this team can come close to winning on the road against a half-decent team. Plus, this is a primetime game for Clemson at Littlejohn, and the Tigers have had Dook’s number recently.
Pick: Clemson 85, Duke 76

Georgia Tech at Florida State
Two of the more talented teams in the conference led by two men who have no idea what to do with their fully-stocked rosters.
Pick: Georgia Tech 72, Florida State 70

Maryland Basketball: Maine Street

Maryland Terrapins (10-5, 1-1 ACC) vs.
Boston College Eagles (10-7, 1-2 ACC)
Conte Forum – Chestnut Hill, MA

I’m not sure what to say about Tuesday’s game. The final score and margin was basically what I thought it would be. But the up-and-down emotions of the game threw me off a little bit. Let’s see if we can recap.

There are no room for moral victories, especially when you need to win nine or ten ACC games. Tuesday’s night game was as close as you could come to a moral victory for Maryland. Once Maryland got down seven points midway through the second half, I thought they were done. They’ve played that game many times before. You know the one I’m talking about. The Terps hang around most of the game, but can never take the second half lead, the opponent goes on a mini-run and Maryland either rushes shots or gives up completely. When Wake extended the lead from three to seven in the second half, and did so on fast break baskets, I figured that was it. Maryland would have a couple of bad possessions and lose by 12 or 13 points.

The opposite happened. Maryland stayed patient. They started by attacking the rim. Then they started kicking out for open outside shots…that they actually made. The defense began getting tough. All of a sudden, Maryland was up with less than two minutes to go. Unfortunately, they couldn’t hold on to the lead. Landon Milbourne committed a dumb foul (although upon further review, it looked like it was a phantom call) that gave Wake free points to tie the game. In overtime, Maryland had a couple of bad turnovers and three missed free throws. Then they had a couple of bad luck bounces. Ishmael Smith’s 10-foot floating prayer was answered. The shot was a total brick. But instead of hitting the back iron and bouncing out, the ball hit the iron, took a crazy bounce straight up and then straight down through the net. Greivis Vasquez took a questionable three on the other end, but even after the bad shot, Sean Mosley had a great look to win the game and missed by an inch. I don’t care about the situation. It was a relatively wide open look, Mosley needs to make that shot. All in all, the Terps played well in their first ACC road game against a good Wake Forest team. Unfortunately they came up short, and the loss won’t help them in the long run. The overtime loss to the Deacons won’t be one the committee looks back at with reverence. The loss doesn’t hurt Maryland. It’s certainly not a bad loss. But it’s a game that Maryland should have won on two separate occasions and failed to put away.

A couple of positives that shouldn’t be overlooked. Maryland once again won the rebounding battle against a taller team. That included several key offensive rebounds down the stretch. The other positive is the play of Jordan Williams. Against Wake, he started to look like the player that scored 44 points in high school playoff games. He attacked the rim, he went up strong. He fought off a 6’9” future NBA-lottery pick inside. Very impressive game from him. It was also good to see Adrian Bowie bounce back after a tough game against FSU.

Maryland hits the road again, making the only possible trip North within the conference. Boston College checks in with a very interesting 10-7 record. They have some decent wins: San Diego State, at Providence, at Michigan, UMass and South Carolina. They even managed to beat Miami by a point. They also have several curious losses. They fell to St. Joseph’s and Northern Iowa in the Virgin Islands Tournament. Then they started dropping home games against every New England team they could find. First it was Harvard. Then Rhode Island. Then there was this beauty. Yes, Boston College managed to lose at home to Maine. In fact, they managed to blow a late eight-point lead at home to Maine. The same Maine team that lost by double-digits to such powerhouses as Brown and Quinnipiac. The loss to Maine is by far the worst loss that any ACC team has had this season.

Following the loss to Maine (and a blowout win over lowly New Jersey “Why In The World Are We Division 1” Tech), the Eagles went on the road and got handled by Clemson (for the entire game) and by Duke (just the second half). So we know that the Eagles aren’t that good. We know that they miss Tyrese Rice more than anyone thought they would. We know BC struggles to score against good teams. They are averaging 58.6 points in three ACC games while giving up 70. They clearly aren’t playing well at home. What is to stop Maryland from going up to Chestnut Hill and coming away with a win?

Well, the Eagles do lead the ACC in rebounding margin. They also don’t turn the ball over a lot. As we saw Tuesday, Maryland’s offense still struggles when they aren’t easily forcing turnovers. Also, when BC scores, they get points from a variety of players. Maryland-killer Joe Trapani averages 14.6. Mr. January Reggie Jackson (the Terps already played Chris Singleton…does NC State have a Brady Anderson on the team) scores 13.6 per. Maryland-killer II Corey Raji averages 12. Rakim Sanders chips in 11. The Eagles are also deep. Nine players average 11 minutes or more. That doesn’t necessarily make them good. That just means they are deep. BC is above average in terms of speed. Al Skinner’s team has some weapons. They are fully capable of beating most ACC teams on any given night. But as we’ve seen, they’re also capable of losing to Maine at home.

The two main culprits for the Eagles struggles have been three-point shooting and forcing turnovers. The Eagles are shooting an abysmal 30.8% from the three-point line. And they take a lot of threes (266 through 17 games, or 15-to-16 a game). Other than Tripani and occasionally Biko Paris, there should be no problems for Maryland guarding the perimeter. Actually, I shouldn’t write no problems. There won’t be any excuses for Maryland if they don’t guard the perimeter. And while the Eagles don’t turn the ball over a whole lot, they don’t force many turnovers either. They only have 77 steals as a team on the season, which translates to 4.5 a game. Like their three-point percentage, that number is very low.

Despite the high rebound margin (7.5 a game), the Eagles are small. Tripani is a soft 6'8" and Josh Southern rarely plays anymore. So along with having the shooting and defensive advantage, Maryland should also have the height advantage. This is a game that the Terps should, I repeat should, be able to win. But as we all know, Maryland has a history of dropping games like this.

Maryland 72
Boston College 65


Elsewhere in the ACC…

I was 4-2 on the first set of ACC picks. Not a bad start. Here are the weekend games.

Clemson at NC State
The Tigers finally overcame their UNC bugaboo, and made a statement game. Now typically, every time Clemson wins a big game, they find a way to drop a game they shouldn’t. This would qualify as another bad loss if they fall.
Pick: Clemson 74, NC State 61

Georgia Tech at North Carolina
The most stunning loss during the past week wasn’t UNC getting dominated at Littlejohn. It was Georgia Tech getting dominated at Virginia. The Yellow Jackets weren’t even close. So they sit at 1-2 in the ACC…and that one win is against Duke. Weird.
Pick: UNC 83, Georgia Tech 78

Virginia Tech at Florida State
Did Seth Greenburg’s Hokies really have a 27-point halftime lead against Miami this past week? They sure did, and they may be worth of a national ranking if they get by FSU.
Pick: Florida State 68, Virginia Tech 64

Miami at Virginia
Have you taken a look at the ACC standings recently? I know it’s early, but do it anyway. Sitting at the top, all alone, undefeated in conference play are the 2-0 Virginia Cavaliers. The Canes need to put a stop to this.
Pick: Miami 63, Virginia 60

Wake Forest at Duke
The Deacons are similar to Georgia Tech. They can give Dook all kinds of matchup problems because they are physical inside and the Devils continue to trot out Galactic Space Captain Brian Zoubek…who is not. The Dookies will find a way to win this game because they are at home and some of their shots will eventually fall.
Pick: Duke 80, Wake Forest 71

NFL Playoffs: From Undefeated To Unloved

Went 2-2 last week. I got the Jets (which everyone else did) and the Cardinals (which no one else did) correct. Trying to do a little better in this round.

SATURDAY
Arizona Cardinals (11-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-3)(-7)
4:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
It’s amazing to me how many people don’t think either the Saints or Colts can win a playoff game, let alone win the Super Bowl. Just because both of these teams struggled over the final month of the season, all of a sudden people are ignoring their combined 27-5 records. Furthermore, the two teams are completely different cases and got to their current records two different ways. More on the Colts in a second.

Unlike Indianapolis, the Saints actually tried down the stretch, which makes their fall a little more worrisome. You can’t argue that the Saints failed to put forth an effort to win games against the Cowboys and Buccaneers. They certainly did. Their finale against Carolina was meaningless, and they didn’t show a whole lot in that game. But they didn’t hide anything from Dallas or Tampa and they didn’t rest any of their starters. So what gives?

Well that New Orleans defense, which many said was the best in the league at the midseason point, really isn’t that good. Everyone was willing to hand the coach of the year trophy to Sean Payton and a smaller version of the award to defensive coordinator Gregg Williams in November. However, the reason the Saints defense was so good for the majority of the season was the Saints offense. New Orleans has basically been able to score at will this year. For the majority of their wins, they were able to establish an early lead. That allowed the defense to be more aggressive and forced opposing offenses to be more predictable (abandoning the running game in favor of passing). An aggressive defense playing a predictable offense usually leads to a predictable outcome. The Saints were able to rack up the stats defensively (sacks, turnovers, etc…) because their offense put them in favorable positions. When the Saints defense was forced to play without a large lead or forced to play from behind, they couldn’t stop anyone. That included the lowly Buccaneers. In fact, the Saints only had two comeback wins all season. And neither of those were the result of falling behind 10-0 or 14-0, then coming back to win 20-17 because of the defense. In the comebacks against the Dolphins and Redskins, the offense needed to put up a combined 79 points to bail out the defense and win the game. And when the offense wasn’t able to score enough, the Saints lost.

So here we are in the second round of the playoffs. The Saints are facing the one NFC team they probably didn’t want to see. New Orleans matched up better against Minnesota, Green Bay, Philadelphia and even Dallas (yes, I know the Cowboys beat them once…but I would take my chances with New Orleans in a rematch). Arizona has the passing game to beat any defense, no matter how predictable the Cardinals become. As we saw against Green Bay, the Cardinals can score on a good defense with great ease. It doesn’t matter if the Saints know the pass is coming, the Cardinals will be able to execute. So it really isn’t a matter of if the Cardinals offense can keep pace in a shootout with New Orleans. The real question, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, is can the Saints offense keep up with Arizona?

Despite the questions around New Orleans, I’m going to take them here. They didn’t get to 13-3 by accident. The one thing Arizona didn’t do last week was turn the ball over. They have been prone to giving the ball away all season. So they are due for a couple of them in this game. Even though the Saints defense isn’t great, they do a great job of ball-hawking. Turnovers are the difference, and the Saints move on.
Pick: Saints 38, Cardinals 28

Baltimore Ravens (10-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (14-2)(-6)
8:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
The most shocking result by far from last week was the Ravens beatdown of the Patriots. Other than the final margin of victory, two things stood out to me. One, the Ravens were able to stop beating themselves with penalties. I believe they only committed three during the game. Two, the Ravens gave New England every chance to comeback and win that game in the 2nd quarter and the Patriots simply didn’t take advantage. Which means the Pats simply weren’t as good as everyone, including myself, thought they were. I didn’t think they were all that good, but I certainly thought they were able to beat an average Baltimore team at home.

Just like Arizona is due for turnovers this week, I think Baltimore is due for a penalty-filled game. They’ll also need Joe Flacco to do more than 4-10 for 34 yards and a pick. Since he’s been hurt, and since he’s not that good, I wouldn’t expect him to keep up with Peyton Manning in this game. The Ravens will also have to face an offense that goes vertical and downfield. The weakness of the Baltimore defense is the secondary. The Patriots were only interested in throwing 5-yard dinks and dunks. They’ll get a little more from Manning than they did from Tom Brady.

A few years ago, the Colts tried the strategy of resting their starters down the stretch. They played like crap for the first half of their playoff loss to the Steelers as a result. It was clear that rust was a factor in that game. But the Steelers had a better quarterback and a balanced offense. Along with deep pass coverage, Flacco and his receivers are a huge weakness for the Ravens. It’s going to come back to burn them somewhere in these playoffs.
Pick: Colts 31, Ravens 17


SUNDAY
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
Like last week, one of these teams has to go home, and that’s a good thing. I have nothing against the Vikings personally, but once they made their deal with the devil and signed Brett Favre, all bets were off. I guess I’d rather have him hang around another weekend instead of the Cowboys. Let’s get rid of these jokers already. Memo to Brad Childress: stop having Favre throw 35 times a game. You have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. For crying out loud, please use them.
Pick: Vikings 28, Cowboys 24

New York Jets (10-7) vs. San Diego Chargers (13-3)(-7)
4:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Anyone within earshot within ESPN knows that the winner of this game will go on to win the Super Bowl. The Jets are destiny’s darlings, while the Chargers are red hot…going into the playoffs with momentum and all that garbage. I’ll give ESPN the benefit of the doubt on the Chargers. They have won eleven in a row, and not all of those games were against the lousy AFC West. Futhermore, they routinely give the Colts fits. So if they get past this round, their matchup with Indy should be very intriguing.

As for the Jets? Like I said last week, I’m impressed with what they did at the end of the season, despite playing teams that didn’t seem to care. They had to win their last few games, and they went out and did what the Broncos, Steelers and Texans could not do. But let’s be honest. Their last six games of the regular season came against teams that were good but had nothing to play for, or weren’t good at all. Their last meaningful regular season game was against New England back on November 22nd. The Jets lost by 17. The outcome of their game last week against Cincinnati was so obvious that even I managed to get it right. Two things have been clear since early December: the Bengals were going to win their division and the Bengals were going to be one-and-done in the playoffs. So this will be the best team the Jets have played in almost two months.

The Jets defense is good, and they’ll slow down the Chargers somewhat. But the best threat for San Diego, at least in my mind, continues to be Antonio Gates. The Jets really have no one who can stop him. Can Darrelle Revis shut down Vincent Jackson? Yes. Can the Jets slow down the Tomlinson-Sproles combination? Yes. I just doubt they can limit Gates. The Jets are also going to need Mark Sanchez to complete passes of more than ten yards to win this game. He hasn’t proven over the last couple of months that he can do that. I don’t think the New York defense will slow San Diego down enough, and the Jets offense certainly can’t afford to get into a shootout.
Pick: Chargers 27, Jets 16

Maryland Basketball: The First 48

Maryland Terrapins (10-4, 1-0 ACC) vs.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-3, 1-1 ACC)
Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum – Winston-Salem, NC

Even if you had told me Maryland would beat Florida State, there’s no way I would have believed you if you had told me that Maryland would outrebound the Seminoles 40-34. Where did that performance come from, and where has that type of effort been the past two months?

If you didn’t recognize that Maryland team, you are not alone. They played like a team possessed in the first half. In fact, that might have been their best opening half of basketball in years. The Terps got a little lackadaisical in the second half and allowed FSU to get some easy put backs (including a couple of highlite reel dunks). But for the most part, Maryland executed their game plan to perfection. They got Soloman Alabi and Chris Singleton in early foul trouble. They minimized the efforts of Michael Snaer and Derwin Kitchen with aggressive, but smart, man-to-man defense. Most importantly, Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes made the open looks that they’ve been missing all season. Add in 13 points from Landon Milbourne and a solid effort from both Dino Gregory and James Padgett, and the Terps can claim their first big win of the 2009-10 season.

It would be nice to assume that Maryland will play like the from here on out, but you know there will be several games where the rebounding effort slacks off or the Terps start missing open shots again. However, this type of effort at least lets us know what Maryland is actually capable of. I seriously doubted that they could ever play as well as they did Sunday night. Just keep in mind, Maryland won a game over a ranked team in a game where Sean Mosley scored six points, Jordan Williams scored three (but did have seven boards) and Adrian Bowie didn’t score at all in 11 minutes. So as well as the Terrapins played, they could certainly play even better in the future.

Speaking of the future, Maryland has less than 48 hours to get ready for their next ACC game. This is a fact that did not escape Gary Williams. As you well know, Gary has a long history of taking any real or perceived slight from the ACC and blowing it out of proportion. This past week, he’s been complaining to anyone who will listen about the schedule. He points out that Maryland is the only team in the ACC that has to play two games in three days with the second game on the road…not counting the Carolina schools, since a road trip to the town next door hardly counts as an actual road trip. It’s a fair complaint, even though it’s not accurate (the Dookies host Georgia Tech on February 4th and are at Boston College on the 6th). Maryland is the only team that’s required to do this right out of the gate of the conference schedule. That’s certainly asking a little much. However, Gary fails to point out that the ACC was fairly generous with the opening schedule (as I pointed out in the last point, no Georgia Tech, Duke or UNC until February). So while it’s technically not fair to have this quick of a turn around, and Gary is usually right on the money when it comes to calling out the Carolina-bias of the ACC, he’s not going to get a lot of sympathy from me in this case. Maryland has been compensated in other ways on their 2010 conference schedule. Not to mention the fact that if the Terps want to go past the second round of the NCAA tournament ever again, they'll have to win two games in three days.

A team that has a real gripe with the schedule may be Wake Forest. This game is crucial for the Demon Deacons, even though we are only in mid-January. So far the Deacs have beaten NC State at home and lost by one at Miami. But after their game with Maryland, they have back-to-back games at Duke and at UNC. A home game against Virginia follows that double dip, but then it’s right back on the road to Georgia Tech. Assuming they go 1-3 in that stretch (a fair assumption right now), then a loss to Maryland would give Wake a 2-4 start in conference play. Even in a down year for the conference, that hole might be too much for the Deacons to overcome. Plus in their remaining ten games, they still have home games against UNC, Tech and Clemson and road trips to Virginia Tech and FSU. So you know Dino Gaudio has his players thinking this is a must win against Maryland. Be prepared to see a desperate Wake Forest team (or at least a desperate Wake Forest coach).

It’s hard to know what to make of the Deacs 11-3 record so far. Along with the loss to Miami, Wake got drubbed at Purdue and lost at home to William & Mary. Terps fans know what that’s like. The loser of this game will not be invited to participate in the CAA Tournament later this winter. They have a quality win at Gonzaga, which was a true road game played in Spokane (rather than Seattle or Portland). Wake had back-to-back overtime wins against A-10 schools Richmond and Xavier. Richmond got a lot of hype entering the season, but they probably won’t be sniffing the tournament. Xavier is not as good as they usually are, but they’ll probably win the A-10 or get an at large bid. Wake’s three quality wins have come by a total of 12 points…and again, they needed overtime twice. Other than that, they’ve played cupcakes (and that includes NC State). They needed all 40 minutes to put the Wolfpack away at home. Like Maryland, Wake’s beaten UNC Greensboro and Winston-Salem State, but not nearly as convincingly. The Deacons have all the makings of a good team, but they aren’t close to being a great team. Certainly not as good as they were last season.

In fairness to Wake, it’s not easy to replace James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Last season, along with Al-Farouq Aminu, the Deacons climbed as high as #1 in the country before claiming a four seed in the NCAA tournament. Wake decided not to show for their first round game against Cleveland State, but the overall season before that was impressive. Then Teague and Johnson moved on in the offseason, which means Aminu was left with Ishmael Smith, a bunch of role players and underclassmen.

Aminu should be the early favorite for ACC player of the year. He was a certain first round NBA pick but came back for a second season. 17 points and 11 boards per game later, and I doubt that Aminu has hurt his draft stock any. Ish Smith is lightning quick, and despite the fact he’s undersized, he plays solid defense against taller opponents. He’s also a great passer, with six assists per game and a 2.1/1 assist/turnover ratio. But he has struggled to shoot this year. Especially from the three-point line (24%) and from the foul line (44%). So there’s no secret in how to guard him. Take away his passing lanes, let him shoot from the outside, and be physical if he tries to use his speed to drive. C.J Harris, L.D. Williams, Redskins receiver Gary Clark, freshman and Entorage character Ari Stewart, and white stiff Chas McFarland are all solid role players. With Aminu and Smith controlling the game, the rest of the Deacons fit in nicely. If Smith’s passes are stopped, and Aminu is forced to carry the team himself, the rest of the Deacons struggle to contribute. The key for Maryland will be stopping Smith, not Aminu. Let Aminu have his 20 and 10, stop Smith from getting the rest of the team involved, and Wake’s offense should grind to a halt.

Like FSU, Wake Forest is a tall team. They have five guys who are 6’8” or taller and get significant playing time. However, the Deacons are not as physical as the Seminoles. Even with their height, Wake struggles at times to rebound. They’ve basically played their opponents even on the boards through the course of the season. If Maryland duplicates their effort from Sunday, rebounding should not be the difference. Despite the performance two days ago, and despite the favorable matchups for Maryland (there is no one on this team that can guard Vasquez), I have a nagging feeling that the quick turnaround and the hostile environment will be Maryland’s downfall. Wake needs this game more than the Terps do, and I think they go out and take it in the second half.

Wake Forest 78
Maryland 73


Elsewhere in the ACC…

I’m going to try to have pithy comments for most of the ACC games this season, but not this week because of the quick turnaround.

Florida State 65, NC State 54
Duke 81, Boston College 66
Georgia Tech 77, Virginia 60
Virginia Tech 73, Miami 67
Clemson 84, North Carolina 77

Maryland Basketball: Lost Among The Trees

#18/19 Florida State Seminoles (13-2, 1-0 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (9-4, 0-0 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Going to be real short here. Computer crapped out…AGAIN! Have no idea when I’ll have use of it, but for the time being, I’m stuck doing this at work. Hence the shortness of this post.

Maryland starts off on another ACC adventure. If their play resembles anything we’ve seen so far, it’s going to be a brutal three months. The Terps don’t have an embarrassing loss this year, like they had the past two seasons. They also have exactly zero quality wins…unless you count Indiana. Which I don’t.

For those who were surprised by the loss to William & Mary, why were you? First of all, W&M is good. They’ll probably win the always tough CAA. They’ve had already beaten Wake Forest. I said for weeks that Maryland would lose that game. The only thing shocking was the way they lost it. I expected the game to at least be close, and it wasn’t until the very end. That was the only thing I was remotely shocked about. Not an excuse, past Maryland teams would have beaten a team the caliber of William & Mary (like when they easily beat a very good Winthrop team three years ago). But for these Terrapins this season, that loss was expected.

Unfortunately, I’m not going to get too much into the rest of the ACC in this post. It hasn’t been pretty anyway. NC State and Virginia are as bad as everyone expected. Boston College has lost to just about every Northeastern school, including Maine. Wake Forest has that previously mentioned defeat to William & Mary. North Carolina … yes, North Carolina … lost to College of Charleston. Someone forgot to tell Roy Williams and company that just because Bobby Cremins is on the sideline, doesn’t mean they’re necessarily facing Georgia Tech type talent. If Duke is really the best team in the conference (and Georgia Tech says hello), then the ACC is in real trouble.

The ACC gave Maryland what amounts to a gift opening schedule. As opposed to past years, where the Terps were forced to make some combination of a Miami-FSU-Tech road trip in the opening week of the season, Maryland actually opens the conference slate at home. FSU will be the toughest team Maryland plays the next two weeks. Then they go to Wake and BC, before home games against NC State and Miami. That is VERY favorable. No worrying about Duke, UNC, Georgia Tech or Clemson until January 31st. But it’s only a gift if Maryland takes advantage, and there’s absolutely no guarantee that will happen.

Florida State has the potential to be the surprise ACC team this season. They were dominated in both of their losses to Florida and Ohio State. They own wins over Alabama, Marquette (on a last second shot), Auburn and Georgia Tech. The Tech win, on the road, is the only win that really stands out at this point. But I like the way the Seminoles have played this season, even in their two losses. They have a physical frontcourt and enough balance in the back to win games in different ways. Soloman Alabi is their leading scorer so far. He’s averaging 12 points and 7 boards per game. At 7’1”, I’m not sure how Maryland plans on guarding him, since every player 6’6” or taller has had an easy time grabbing boards and getting putbacks. Freshman Michael Snaer has provided an immediate impact for Leonard Hamilton. So has sophomore and former Oriole outfielder Chris Singleton (sarcasm). Combined with Derwin Kitchen, Xavier Gibson, resident thug Ryan Reid, token European Deividas Dulkys and token white guy Jordan DeMercy, Florida State has a deep team for Leonard Hamilton. And as well as Singleton and Snaer have played so far, they have the potential to play much better as the season goes along. Those two aren’t close to leveling off yet. If they play up to potential, and Alabi keeps putting up his averages, then this will be a very dangerous team in a couple of months.

FSU does not shoot particularly well from outside or from the charity stripe, which is good since Maryland has been letting every team shoot threes with ease and get to the line without much effort. Other than Snaer, FSU lacks the guards who can slash to the hoop. So they should be somewhat easy to defend around the perimeter. Alabi, Singleton, Reid and the inside game are going to be a major problem. There is no doubt that the Terps are going to have to attack Alabi early and get him in foul trouble. If they don’t, then you can almost guarantee an easy double-double for him. He’ll also make Singleton and Reid much better by drawing defenders. Dino Gregory and Jordan Williams better man-up early.

I don’t see Maryland having much success inside, at least defensively. They’ve proven that even with three legitimate post players and Landon Milbourne they can’t stop half-decent forwards. I think it will be more of the same against the best forward combination that Maryland has seen so far. Even if the Terps start hitting open shots, which they haven’t yet this year, I can’t envision the Terps having any luck putting distance between FSU and themselves because they won’t be able to keep the Noles off the glass. Second chance points will be the difference, and Maryland will probably be hitting the road with a 0-1 conference record.

Florida State 74
Maryland 67

NFL Playoffs: Repeat Offenders

Ended the season on a depressing 8-7 note and an even more depressing 7-8 against the spread. Here are the regular season records:

Overall: 162-78 (67.5%)
Vs. Spread: 127-108-5

How weird was this season? Well, it was my best season overall predicting games...but it was my fourth worst against the spread. Just bizzare. At least I'm trending up now, after trending down the last several seasons.

Overall
2005 - 161-79
2006 - 158-82
2007 - 156-84
2008 - 148-91-1
2009 - 162-78
(785-414-1 overall...or 65.4%)

Vs. Spread
2005 - 140-93-7
2006 - 137-94-9
2007 - 130-102-8
2008 - 119-114-7
2009 - 127-108-5
(653-511-36)

So it's playoff time, where I've done remarkably well in each season except 2007. 11 games to go, here are the first four. As always, please do not use these picks for actual gambling purposes.

SATURDAY
New York Jets (9-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)(-2.5)
4:30 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Here we go again. As soon as either of the New York teams does something decent, the sports media gets all crazy. I’ve heard everything from “the Jets are going to dominate Cincinnati again” to “the Jets are a darkhorse to win the Super Bowl” and just about anything in between. Enough. If you actually think that the Bengals team that laid down Sunday Night is the same Bengals team that will show up Saturday afternoon, then you don’t know football. Everyone is reading WAY too much into last Sunday’s game just like everyone is reading way too much into Green Bay’s win over the Cardinals (more on that later).

This game is the toughest call of the week in my opinion. It's also one of three repeat matchups from the last week of the regular season. I do like the way the Jets have played this past month…even facing several opponents who haven’t tried to win. The only thing that worries me about the Jets is the uneven quarterback play of Mark Sanchez. However, the Jets have a running game. They have the NFL’s top defense. They have a pretty good coach. Those are three necessities to succeed in January. On the other side, the Bengals had a decent running game for the first 10 weeks, but it’s disappeared recently. Statistically, their defense is pretty good, but there have been many times when it rolled over. Also, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has both feet out the door on the way to Washington (no more Greg Blache-coached defenses!!!!!!). So that’s an added distraction. Plus, the Bengals are the Bengals. This is not a franchise that gets luck when it’s needed.

The Bengals definitely have the advantage at quarterback with Carson Palmer, but I believe Rex Ryan will find a way to negate that. Lately he’s been playing it safe with Sanchez, and that strategy has worked almost perfectly for the last four games. I’m not getting swept up in Jets fever. I doubt the Jets have any potential for a serious playoff run. They will be easy pickings for either the Chargers or Colts. But I have more questions about Cincinnati than I do about New York, and I don’t feel comfortable picking against the Jets’ defense at this point in the playoffs.
Pick: Jets 20, Bengals 13


Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)(-4)
8:00 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
Speaking of crazy, how about that Cowboys bandwagon. It’s filled up pretty quickly the last couple of weeks. Like the Jets, don’t believe the hype. The Cowboys time in the playoffs will be short lived. Whether they lose to the Eagles this week, or the Vikings the next, I guarantee that Dallas will not see the NFC Championship Game. End of story. Meanwhile, for the third straight year, the NFL playoff schedule has given us one of these despicable NFC East matchups. Obviously one of these teams has to win, but it also means that we are rid of one of these teams for good after Saturday night. It’s comforting to know that one of these teams will lose, and I really don’t care which one.
Pick: Eagles 23, Cowboys 17


SUNDAY
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) vs. New England Patriots (10-6)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I look at this line and laugh. The Ravens, playing a must win game against a below average Raiders team, needed Willis McGahee to come out of retirement to bail them out. Somehow I don’t think the Patriots will be as forgiving. Yes, we all know by now how important Wes Welker is to New England. We all get it. But he’s not that important. He’s absence won’t make the difference in this ballgame.

The quarterback discrepancy is huge. On one side you have Tom Brady. Broken rib and all, he’s better than 90% of the other starters in the league. On the other side you have Joe Flacco. Last season, Flacco wasn’t asked to win ballgames, but to manage them. He did a fine job of that. However, Flacco has yet to take the next step this season. In fact, he’s taken a step backward. His performance over the last 9 games, not counting a freebee against the Bears, has been dreadful. He single-handedly gave a win to Indianapolis, a win to Green Bay and two wins to Cincinnati. He almost cost the Ravens last week’s game in Oakland. Not counting the game against Chicago, in which the Bears turned the ball over five times and gave Flacco several short fields to work with, Flacco has thrown five touchdowns and seven picks. And I can hear all those Ravens fans complaining “his receivers drop passes, including Derrick Mason dropping a sure touchdown two weeks ago.” While that’s true, and you have to take Flacco’s receivers into account, defenders have dropped more picks than his receivers have dropped touchdowns this season. So it more than balances out.

In fact, Flacco’s statistics this season are eerily similar to Jason Campbell’s. And Campbell did that with an injured offensive line and no running game after Week 9. No one in their right mind would take Campbell in a playoff game right now. Why would anyone seriously consider taking a Flacco-led team against a Brady-led team? Seems like a no-brainer.
Pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 10


Green Bay Packers (11-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)(-1)
4:30 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
This appears, at least to me, to be the other no-brainer of the week. I like the Cardinals. I like them relatively big. This is the same Cardinals team that did the rope-a-dope last season during December, and then steam-rolled through the NFC. Knowing they had a weak division, the Cardinals have played it safe for the past month. They haven’t shown any tricks or gadget plays. Every time Kurt Warner starts getting hit, they pull him out of the game. It’s all very familiar. It’s basically a flashback to last season.

The Cardinals are the real darkhorse of the playoffs at this point. Their offense is a known commodity. Even with Warner finally showing some age and even with Anquan Boldin possibly on the shelf, the Cardinals offense is better than anyone other than New Orleans and possibly Indianapolis among playoff teams. The defense is better than it was last season. Ken Whisenhunt has a season of playoff experience, as do most of the players. Green Bay, on the other hand, has been way too unpredictable for my liking. They’ll come out and shutdown Dallas and Baltimore, only to get blown out by Minnesota (twice) and embarrass themselves at Tampa. The offense should put up points, but the defense isn’t reliable. Certainly not reliable enough to stop the Cardinals (again, last week not withstanding…Arizona played their starters all of 15 minutes). Had this game been in Green Bay, I’d consider the upset. But the Packers won’t have their distinct homefield advantage in these playoffs. If the Arizona defense plays as consistently as it did last January, there should be no problems for the Cardinals this weekend.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Packers 20

Redskins at Chargers: The Final Goodbye

Washington Redskins (4-11) vs. San Diego Chargers (12-3)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Considering the effort the Redskins have given the last two weeks, I doubt it really makes a difference who San Diego plays or rests. The good thing is that this will be the last week of this disaster of season and it will be the last time I write about the Redskins for awhile (unless of course I feel inclined to write about the draft or the offseason or Mike Shanahan...by the way, it’s still 50-50 whether Shanahan comes here or not). That’s really saying something. I’m always a little depressed after the final football game. Even last year, when the Skins started 6-2 and then systematically ripped the heart out of their entire fanbase, I was upset I wouldn’t see another game for about nine months. This year, it’s kind of a relief. I don’t have to worry about this team embarrassing itself or its fans on national television anymore.

Congrats go out to Brian Orakpo. He managed to have an outstanding rookie season, despite resident defensive moron Greg Blache making him drop into coverage about 90% of the time. I’m not sure the Pro Bowl bid was deserved, but the outside linebacking position was a little weak in the NFC this season. If it wasn’t for Brian Cushing, Orakpo would be a shoo-in for NFL defensive rookie of the year. He should still get that honor over Cushing, but it will be close. It doesn’t hurt Cushing that his team is somewhat respectable. Orakpo doesn’t have the benefit.

Neither did London Fletcher, who once again was left off the Pro Bowl roster. I understand taking Patrick Willis over Fletcher, but Jonathan Vilma? Really? I know the Saints had a great season, but it was because of their offense. For all the ballyhoo that surrounded Gregg Williams in New Orleans, his defense was 19th in the league in points allowed and 24th in yards allowed. Those are terrible numbers. The Redskins defense was statistically better. Vilma clearly got in based on his team’s performance (really, the offense’s performance) instead of his individual effort. There’s a good chance the Saints go to the Super Bowl, and Vilma can’t play in this new age Pro Bowl, which would allow Fletcher to go in his place. Still, it’s a crime that Fletcher has yet to make a Pro Bowl in his career…and he had another Pro Bowl-caliber season on a bad team this year.

The distraction of the week for the Redskins (the distraction of the week should be a sponsored segment on this page, currently accepting applications for the right to sponsor it next season) was Jerry Gray acting like a clown. Just come out and say that you interviewed for the job already. Everyone knows you did. The NFL has even said that you did. There’s no point in lying. You are already about to become a coaching pariah. If you admit to it, you will be blackballed for a shorter amount of time. As I keep saying, the greatest thing about this season ending, other than not having to worry about how the team will embarrass itself, is that Blache and Gray are only days away from being shown the door for good. I would say don’t even let them on the plane on the way back…but since the game is in San Diego, that wouldn’t really be a punishment. These two idiots have taken a potentially talented defense and made them average all year. Well done boys. Neither of you will be hirable for the next five years. Gray may not be back in the NFL for even longer. That helps me smile.

Speaking of coaching, look who is on the other sideline this weekend. Norval Eugene Turner! He still looks as clueless as always, and his face is still as potholed as always, but his team looks like a legitimate contender. Usually the Chargers go through the first three months of the season in a fog, before waking up in December, winning a crappy division, and then bowing out in the AFC Divisional or Championship round. True to form, San Diego got off to a rough start in 2009. But they woke up earlier than expected. After starting 2-3, and falling three games behind the overrated Broncos, the Chargers reeled off ten straight wins to lock up the pitiful AFC West once again. Some of those wins have come against the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. Others have come against the Bengals, Eagles and Cowboys. They haven’t played any of the other favorites in their conference (Colts, Patriots, Steelers) during that stretch, nor have they had to play the Saints, Vikings or Cardinals. But ten in a row is ten in a row, and they’ve played some decent teams during that run.

Norv has accomplished this by basically doing nothing. As always, he is going nowhere near the defensive side of things. He’s allowed his assistants to handle most of the offensive responsibilities. Basically Norv puts on his Chargers windbreaker (or bubble coat and ski cap when away from San Diego), puts on the headset, then stares into space for three hours. And look what’s happened. The offense has finally blossomed and become consistent. The Tomlinson-Sproles rushing attack is dangerous. San Diego has finally figured out how to use Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates has stopped carrying the load and has managed to stay relatively healthy because of that. And most importantly, Philip Rivers more closely resembles Peyton Manning instead of Jay Cutler. Right now, the only offenses that rival San Diego are Indianapolis and New Orleans. And the Chargers have a better defense than New Orleans. So if Norv continues to be laissez-faire, and Jim Caldwell stops trying to screw things up in Indy, the Chargers-Colts AFC Championship game will probably be better than the Super Bowl.

Fortunately for the Redskins, the Chargers are locked into the two seed in the AFC. This game means less for them than it does for the Redskins. Norv is a very conservative coach, so I doubt we’ll see the Chargers starters in the middle of the third quarter. Then again, don’t count out Norv being a little bitter and trying to drive the final stake through Dan Snyder’s heart. I’m sure he would like some revenge after the way he was run out of town. No better way than piling on a already miserable season. To Jim Zorn, it’s been fun. I like the guy, he’s a breath of fresh air during press conferences, but it’s clear he’s not meant to be a NFL head coach. To Blache and Gray, hopefully the doors do hit you on the way out. To the original hog Joe Bugel, may your retirement be enjoyable, you will be missed. I guess there’s always a slight chance you’ll keep sticking around. To the 2009-10 Redskins, good night and good luck. Hopefully we’ll see you in better times in September.