Maryland Basketball: Oliver Twist

Maryland Terrapins (14-5, 4-1 ACC) vs.
NR/#21 Clemson Tigers (15-6, 3-4 ACC)
Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC

I could get used to winning by 20+ points. I really could. I would run out of things to complain about, but I bet it would be worth it.

Let’s see…comfortable 1st half lead combined with convincing 2nd half. Check. 17 made field goals in the first half vs. only 16 attempted field goals by Miami. Check. Not fooling around with a less talented team. Check. Greivis Vasquez having another great game while at the same time not forcing the office to be reliant on him. Check. Jordan Williams showing more signs of growth while playing against a polished big man. Check. Double-digit efforts from several players. Check. Team rebounding. Check. Dominating the hustle stats. Check. Sole possession of first place in the ACC standings. Big check.

You really have to nitpick to find something to complain about. The only thing that worries me right now has been the rotation. Despite the chance to go nine-deep, Gary is only applying an eight or even seven-man rotation now. James Padgett has nearly disappeared. At times, Dino Gregory and/or Adrian Bowie have seen a severe decrease in minutes. Sure it’s working now. But if we never learn anything else from Ratface and the Nerds, it’s that a deep bench is a necessity in college basketball. Like the past five seasons, the Cheer Sheeters are trotting out a seven-man team. By Valentine’s Day, expect the shooting percentages to go way down (even though they aren’t that high to begin with). So that should be a warning to Maryland. A seven-man rotation may be working now, but be very careful when the calendar flips to February.

Playing two games a week against conference competition can certainly wear down a team. Right now the Terps check in with at 48.7% from the floor. That’s over 50% in conference play. Those numbers will certainly go down (mostly because Maryland, or any other team, can’t possibly shoot 50% an entire conference season). However, that number will plummet if the Terps don’t go with a consistent eight-man rotation. Nine would be preferable. I’m not saying that Padgett deserves 20 minutes a game. But right now he’s averaging almost 12 minutes per game overall and only 6.5 minutes per game in conference play. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be getting 10-12 minutes. Bowie’s numbers have fluctuated as well. Twice he’s seen only 11 minutes per game in conference play. He and Cliff Tucker need to play a minimum of 15 per conference contest so Vasquez and Hayes are able to keep their legs rested. Again, it’s nitpicking now. But if the trend continues, there could be problems as soon as mid-February.

The only other thing that I can complain about it the schedule. Obviously there’s nothing Maryland can do about that. But despite the 4-1 conference start, you’ll have a hard time finding analysts who believe the Terps have staying power. Let’s be honest, their four wins haven’t come against the best the ACC has to offer. At least that’s the thought process this week. The definition of a good ACC team in the 09-10 season changes week-to-week. The home win over Florida State was solid. No one’s going to argue that right now. The other three wins have come against Boston College, NC State and Miami. It appears that Miami is on their way to a last place finish. NC State made noise last week against Duke, but that appears to be the exception for Sid’s Kids this season, not the rule. State also seems to be on their way to another Lowe finish. BC was also ticketed for a 3-13 conference finish a few weeks ago, but the Eagles are already at 3-4. So the win against Boston College, on the road by 16, is starting to look better and better. Especially after BC’s win over Clemson.

Ah, Clemson. This game was supposed to mark the beginning of a tough stretch for the Terps: at Clemson, at FSU then home against UNC. We know FSU is decent. The Heels are much better than their record indicates. But what about the Tigers? Like most of the conference, the answer to that question at this point is a resounding “I don’t know”. Out of the conference, Clemson has lost to Illinois and Texas A&M. They own a one-point win over Butler. Their win over South Carolina looks a lot better this week than it did last. The Tigers three conference wins come against BC, NC State and UNC. Very similar to Maryland. They’ve also lost to BC, been beaten twice by the Dookies and lost a close one to Georgia Tech. In other words, Clemson has beaten the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the ones they should have lost to. With the exception of Boston College.

The game against Tech was Exhibit A of why Oliver Purnell is a terrible coach. The game was tied with about five seconds remaining. Georgia Tech had the ball and Paul Hewitt called a timeout. During the timeout, the first and last thing I would tell my team as head coach would be no fouls. Don’t put Tech at the line with the game tied. What does Clemson do? Foul. They lost by two. You could try to blame it on the players, but this type of stuff happens way too regularly at Clemson.

Just like the annual January swoon. This is at least the fifth year in a row that the Tigers have started the year great, earned a high ranking, and tanked the conference schedule. The first two seasons Clemson bottomed out so badly that they missed the NCAA tournament. That includes the 2007 season, when the Tigers started 17-0 and were the last undefeated team in the country. They finished 21-10 and went to the NIT. The last two seasons, the Tigers have managed to do just enough in conference play to make the NCAA Tournament. However, they have yet to win a tournament game. They lost to under-seeded Villanova two years ago, and blew an early lead to awful Michigan last year. There has been way too much talent in Clemson the last few years for this team to only be 0-2 in NCAA Tournament play. The one constant is the coach. Purnell, who doesn’t fall far from the Gary Williams coaching tree, has routinely been a bottom-half of the league coach.

That doesn’t mean that Purnell can’t recruit. He’s proven that he can. The Tigers team from two seasons ago was loaded. Cliff Hammonds, KC Rivers and James Mays were all on that squad. How none of them ever won a tournament game can be explained by the coaching staff. Purnell has now had Demontez Stitt for three seasons and Trevor Booker for four. He’s even started a pipeline to the Booker family. Devin Booker is now a freshman for the Tigers. It’s my understanding that there are at least two more Booker kids on the way. So Purnell has talent. He just doesn’t know what to do with it.

This season, Clemson has been too reliant on the elder Booker and Stitt. That’s been a problem recently since Stitt’s been battling a foot injury for the past month or so. He missed the BC game earlier in the week. Even if he plays, and there’s no guarantee that he will, he certainly won’t be able to attack the rim like he usually does. If Stitt can’t attack the rim, then he’s no better or no more dangerous than a regular point guard. Andre Young will start in his place if Stitt can’t go, and Young isn’t scaring anybody in the ACC yet. And as good as Clemson is inside, if Stitt can’t get Booker and company the ball, then the only way Booker can make an impact is on second chances.

Still, Maryland has lost two in a row to this outfit. That includes a major beatdown last year at Littlejohn. The Terps haven’t been able to handle Clemson’s size the past two years. As soon as Maryland collapses inside, the Tigers kick the ball out and start hitting threes. Fortunately Terrence Oglesby isn’t in South Carolina anymore, but Young, Stitt and David Potter are all decent shooters. Clemson still poses several matchup problems for Maryland, the most concerning being Booker’s athleticism and skill inside.

It will be interesting to see what Maryland does in a true road environment (BC’s half empty arena and the sometimes tomb-like atmosphere at the Joel don’t count). Littlejohn has gotten a lot of hype of the last few weeks, some of it undeserved. I never thought that it was a tough place to play, especially considering how many game the Tigers lost there in the late-90’s and early-00’s. But Littlejohn will be full and it will be loud. Other than then their trip to Bloomington, the Terps have avoided tough opposing arenas so far this season.

It will also be interesting to see how the Terps respond if they fall behind early. Maryland has cruised the last few weeks thanks in large part to big early leads. If they are trailing at halftime, or in the second half, can they recover like they did against Wake? Or was that more of a fluke? Last season, Maryland had a knack for falling behind by six or seven points, then forcing bad shots or passes to make the hole deeper. That didn’t happen against the Deacons, but did happen against Cincinnati and Wisconsin. Hopefully Maryland doesn’t fall behind and they continue their hot streak. Stitt will probably play, but I can’t see him being 100%. I’ve gone back and forth on this one since Tuesday. I think Maryland loses to FSU next week, but I’ll ride the hot hand Sunday.

Maryland 76
Clemson 73


Elsewhere in the ACC…

A 5-1 midweek now has me at 16-7 for the ACC schedule. Several teams step outside the conference this weekend (including Georgia Tech’s interesting schedule choice against Divison II Kentucky State), leaving me only three other games to choose from.

Florida State at Boston College
I’m picking against BC despite their win over Clemson earlier in the week and despite the fact that Oliver Purnell and Leonard Hamilton are basically the same coach.
Pick: Florida State 71, Boston College 67

Virginia Tech at Miami
Virginia Tech may be the most unimpressive 16-3 team in the country. They have played nobody. They have beaten nobody. They barely escaped Charlottesville with a win. By the way, I was busy Thursday night and missed most of NIT battle. When a friend told me someone had been ejected from the game early in the 2nd for swinging elbows, I only needed one guess as to who it was. Seriously, could it have been anybody other than Jeff Allen? I even correctly guessed that male-bimbo Karl Hess was responsible for throwing him out. Oh, I dislike both of them so much. I’m sure Maryland will see Hess just in time for the Dook game.
Pick: Miami 64, Virginia Tech 59

Virginia at North Carolina
The Hoos are starting to come back down to Earth following their 3-0 start. That gentle tumble they’ve taken in the last two games is about to become a freefall.
Pick: North Carolina 85, Virginia 65