NFL Playoffs: Plenty Of Rest For The Weary

New York Jets (11-7) vs.
Indianapolis Colts (15-2)(-7.5)
3:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
AFC Championship Game

For those who thought that resting players and not going for an undefeated season was the wrong move: it’s time for you idiots to shut up. That means about 95% of the talking heads at ESPN and at any other network. The Colts and Saints both proved this past weekend, and proved convincingly, that the only goal a team should worry about is winning the Super Bowl. A perfect season is nice if it happens. But I know I’d much rather my team went 17-2 and won the Super Bowl then have my team go 18-1 and lose it. Right Patriots fans?

The idea that going 19-0 was a necessity for the Colts or Saints was so foolish from the beginning. Why subject Peyton Manning or Drew Brees to two extra games of hits if it’s not necessary? Why risk it? How many injuries do we see on any given week? The more Manning, or any other starter plays, the more likely they are to get hurt. Manning can’t get hurt sitting on the bench. And since those games that he sat on the bench obviously didn’t matter, then protecting him was the right move. I don’t want to hear anymore about a team being rusty. What’s better…a healthy but rusty Peyton Manning or a Peyton Manning who played all 16 games but now has a broken leg and can’t play in the postseason?

Playing starters down the stretch didn’t work for the San Diego Chargers. So much for those 11 straight wins to end the season. So much for being ESPN’s favorite to win the AFC. Behind the extremely predictable play-calling of Norv Turner, the usual postseason choking from Philip Rivers and an unexpected bad game from Nate Kaeding, the Chargers join 27 other teams on the golf courses. As I say at the beginning of every season, a team that is coached by Norv Turner and a team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers CAN NOT win a Super Bowl. Can’t happen. Turner is way too predictable and conservative in crucial moments…and Rivers is too unpredictable to come through in the clutch. The Chargers are lucky to be located in San Diego. If they were in any other conference but the lousy AFC West, they wouldn’t be on this long sustained run of success.

So as impressed as I was with the Colts performance, I’m equally unimpressed by the Jets. The Chargers were a better team, but because of coaching, quarterbacking and bad kicking, the Jets hung around and eventually took the lead and the win. The Jets didn’t force those missed kicks. The Jets didn’t force Turner to become more conservative than Rush Limbaugh. The Jets may have had something to do with Rivers’ struggles, but their defense wasn’t the only reason that Rivers couldn’t lead San Diego to a win. The Jets were given 20 chances to win that game. New York took advantage of the 20th chance. The Jets didn’t win that game as much as San Diego lost it.

The Jets and Colts play in their biggest game since Super Bowl III. The two teams met earlier this year during Week 16. That was one of the games the Colts didn’t try to win and that was one of the gifts the Jets got on their way to the playoffs (the Cincinnati game being the other). When the Colts starters were in that game, Indianapolis had the lead and control. When Manning and other starters came out, the Jets roughed up the backups and won. Like their win over San Diego, the Jets won because the other team did something to help them. The Colts won’t be as generous this time. By the middle of the 3rd quarter, I don’t see this game being close.
Pick: Colts 34, Jets 17


Minnesota Vikings (13-5) vs.
New Orleans Saints (14-3)(-3.5)
6:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
NFC Championship Game

Last week, everyone and their mothers were picking the Cowboys. That’s why the Vikings were only three point favorites at home despite having a week off, a better team and a slightly better coach. Now, I know the Vikings whooped up on those Cowboys – and staff here at The Predictor is thankful for that – but the Saints should be much more than 3.5-point favorites. Again, New Orleans is at home. Their homefield advantage is greater than Minnesota’s. They are the better team. They have the better coach. Just because Minnesota is everyone’s team of the week doesn’t mean the line should be so low.

As an amazing prognosticator (check my post from January 8th if you doubt my claim), I’m trained to see lines like this and bet the other way. Both teams were impressive last week. The Vikings embarrassed Dallas by 31 points. New Orleans ran up on Arizona by 31 points. New Orleans offense looked much better than Minnesota’s. They moved the ball easier. It didn’t take them a half of football to get comfortable. New Orleans defense was also looked marginally better than Minnesota’s. The Vikings allowed Dallas to move the ball up and down the field in the first half. Had it not been for the original choke artist Tony Romo, the Cowboys probably would have put 13-17 points on the board before halftime. The Saints D had one bad play from scrimmage early, allowed one decent Cardinals drive and that was it. Plus, I would argue that Arizona is a better team than Dallas. So even though both teams won convincingly, the Saints looked much better overall. Add in the homefield advantage at the Superdome, and the Saints really should be a touchdown favorite.

I’ll give the Vikings this: they have a better chance of upsetting New Orleans than the Jets do of upsetting the Colts. The Saints do have one obvious weakness and I have yet to see any from Indianapolis. As I discussed last week, the Saints are a much better team when they have the lead. That may seem obvious, and most teams do play better when they are winning, but it’s crucial for the Saints to go into halftime with a lead. I sort of cringed after Tim Hightower’s long run on the first play from scrimmage. I thought the Saints could be in real trouble. Fortunately, Brees had no problem moving the ball against the Cardinals D. He even got help with a surprise appearance by Reggie Bush (yes, he’s still playing!). New Orleans led by 14 by the end of the first quarter.

The Vikings have a chance if they can control the game early. They need to be on top, or at least within one score at halftime. In order to do this, Minnesota must run the ball in the first half. The Cardinals tried to get in shootout with the Saints last weekend…and it obviously didn’t work. Minnesota must run the ball and keep the Saints offense away from the field as much as possible. Even if Brett Favre has success early and leads a couple of touchdown drives, he won’t be able to keep up with Brees throughout the course of the game. Save Favre’s heroics for the second half if necessary. If Adrian Peterson doesn’t go for 150, I don’t see any way for the Vikings to win.

I don’t have much confidence in Brad Childress allowing Peterson to do that. As we all know by now, he’s not running the team. This is Favre’s team, or at least Favre’s offense. He plays when he wants to play. He runs up the score when he wants to run up the score. Favre is going to do what he wants, when he wants. And Childress is going to let him. This is the wrong game for the Vikings to get away from their strength. The Saints are about to send Favre to his retirement, or his un-retirement, or whatever game Favre plays in the offseason.
Pick: Saints 38, Vikings 16