Super Bowl XLIV: Don't Get Defensive

New Orleans Saints (15-3) vs.
Indianapolis Colts (16-2)(-5)
6:30 p.m. Sun Life Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Super Bowl XLIV

Brett Favre…gone! New Jersey’s second team…gone! Dallas, Baltimore, New England and every other despicable team…gone! What a matchup this is. I don’t think I’ve been as excited for a Super Bowl since the Redskins were last here 18 years ago. Honestly, this is an outstanding game. If you love the NFL, then this is the game you wanted to see. Brees and Manning. Wayne and Colston. Reggie Bush. Dwight Freeney. The most efficient offense in recent NFL history against the highest scoring offense this season. On one sideline, there’s a team from the heartland with a quarterback trying to cement his legacy as one of the greatest of all time. On the other sideline, a team from New Orleans that is so emotionally tied to a city trying rebuild from scratch. So without further ado, we move on the game itself to try and find a winner.

When the Saints have the ball:

The Saints offense was otherworldly during the regular season. They were easily the top team in the NFL when it came to points scored and yards gained. New Orleans accomplished that by going to the air early and often. There were so many weapons for Drew Brees to choose from. Marques Colston was the big name. Add in Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore, and you see why it was so difficult to cover everybody. And that’s before we factor in Bush as a passing threat, Jeremy Shockey as a possession receiver/tight end and the running game with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. There was no defense in the world that could slow down this team.

Then injuries started accruing on the offensive line. All three running backs suffered a variety of bruises. Shockey limped around the second half of the season. Moore seemed to disappear from the offense completely. All of a sudden, you had Brees playing behind a banged up offensive line. He had a hurting running game and a hurting safety net (Shockey). Colston drew double teams. With the line banged up and the running game a non-factor, Brees had little time to throw the ball and only one or two options to throw to. The Saints dropped their last three games of the season and looked completely average while doing so.


Just one of the weapons for Drew Brees.

The New Orleans offense rebounded during the playoffs thanks in large part to the medical staff and the running game. Bell and Thomas are running almost as well as they did early in the season. The Saints are averaging 119 yards per game on the ground in the playoffs. Even though the New Orleans offensive line is still banged up, Brees has started to exhibit his old form since opposing teams can no longer play solely against the pass. Even though they’ve turned the ball over a few too many times, the Saints have scored 76 points in two playoff games. Pretty darn good.

The Colts defense is always the forgotten unit. It’s hard to consistently play second fiddle to your all-world quarterback. But the Colts D has shown up for six of their eight postseason quarters. They shut down the Ravens’ miserable attack and limited them to three points. After letting the Jets go up and down the field in the first half of the AFC Championship, they didn’t give them anything on the scoreboard in the second half. It will not be easy for the Saints to establish a run game against this D.

Fortunately for New Orleans, they are not tied to the running game like Baltimore and New York were. Just the threat of Bell and Thomas should give Brees more time to throw the ball. Other than Dwight Freeney, whose health status remains unknown, the Colts have a hard time putting pressure on the quarterback. The secondary has the potential to be good, but they’ve only shown it against Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. In other words, they’ve done well against above average quarterbacks. Brees is obviously much better than either of them. I think we can use the NFC Championship as a bench mark for this game. I think the Saints will have a similar day (24-31 points, 300 or so yards and couple of turnovers) in Super Bowl XLIV.

When the Colts have the ball:

The Saints are going to blitz. They are going to blitz from every angle. They’ll use every player on the field. Just ask Favre. I’ve never seen Favre hit so many times in one game in his entire career. The Saints come after you, and they are usually effective.

The Colts have Manning, who avoids just about every blitz easily. The Jets hit Manning for the first quarter of the AFC Championship Game. Then Manning and Indy adjusted. That ended any chance the Jets had of winning. It’s the Catch 22 of playing Manning. If you blitz, he’ll adjust and make you pay with short crossing routes. If you lay back, he’ll pick your secondary apart. There has never been a blitz, or a defense scheme for that matter, that’s proved to be effective against Manning.


While in Tennessee, Gregg Williams had no luck stopping Peyton Manning. I doubt his fortune will improve much Sunday.

So we know the Saints will blitz. We know Manning will adjust. The question is how many hits can the Saints lay on Manning before he does. Considering the amount of weapons the Colts have, it probably won’t be many. We all know about Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Austin Collie continues to emerge as an outstanding possession receiver. Pierre Garcon has also made marked improvement in the postseason. During the regular season, Garcon struggled. He dropped plenty of passes. He ran routes poorly. But he looks like an entirely different player in the playoffs. Since Garcon is of Haitian decent, that’s the story that all the broadcasts have focused on. Admittedly, it’s a great story of a native son bringing attention to the devastation in his homeland by playing football. The story that’s being missed is how Garcon has improved as a football player the past few weeks. He gives Manning and this already stocked offense another weapon.

The Colts have proven that they can score against any defense. New Orleans has shown that they can get to any quarterback (Favre, Kurt Warner). I’m going to trust Manning’s long and proven history in big games over Gregg Williams’ unproven defense. The Colts are going to score, maybe not early, but they are going to put plenty of points on the board. Williams’ defense is too aggressive for its own good. Indianapolis will pull off at least two big scoring plays and at least two long and sustained drives. The ball-hawking skills of Darren Sharper and Jonathan Vilma will be neutralized. The Colts offense will be just fine.

Intangibles:

This is the one area of the game that should favor the Saints. If this becomes a battle of wits between Sean Payton and Jim Caldwell, the edge goes to Payton. Then again, the running joke all season surrounds the role of Caldwell. Does he really coach the team? What does he look like? Does he even exist? Peyton Manning is looked at as more of a coach and a leader than Caldwell. And for the Colts offense, that’s actually true. So if it comes down to Payton and Peyton, then the coaching edge is a little more even. Other than that, the Colts kicking and punting game (not that they use it a whole lot) is better than the Saints. Despite what he did two weeks ago, I would not want to trot out Garrett Hartley with the game on the line. I’d rather have God’s Kicker from 40 yards or closer. The return game does favor New Orleans. Whether they trot out Reggie Bush or Courtney Roby, the Saints are probably going to need a couple of big special teams plays to pull this one out.


Is this Jim Caldwell? Seriously, I don't know.

All signs point to a Colts win. The injury to Freeney will certainly help the Saints some. If there’s any advantage in the crowd it should go the Saints way. They are America’s Team right now. Other than that, everything points to Indianapolis. It really comes down to this: which team is better at consistently scoring points. As we’ve see, the Colts offense can’t really be stopped. They scored 47 points against two of the better defenses in the league (statistically, the Jets owned the best defense in the NFL). Indianapolis can turn it on virtually at will. When they absolutely need a touchdown drive, Manning usually delivers.

As good as the Saints offense has been all season, they have struggled to score consistently. The only real success New Orleans had against Minnesota is when Favre and Vikings receivers coughed up the ball five times. Most of the Saints points came off turnovers instead of sustained drives. In fact, because of the takeaways the defense has forced all season, the Saints scored more points off turnovers than any team in the league. Left to their own devices, New Orleans’ offense is certainly dangerous, but simply not at the caliber of the Colts. Futhermore, the Saints blitzed Favre all game long. They battered him badly. Despite the pounding, Favre still managed to throw for over 300 yards and had a pretty decent game. Again, if it wasn’t for fumbles and Favre’s really, really dumb pass, then Minnesota probably wins that game. Since Manning is infinitely better at this stage of his career than Favre, I would expect an even better game from him if New Orleans goes with a similar attack plan.

If Indianapolis doesn’t fumble the game away, the Saints aren’t likely to go out and win the game themselves. And if you haven’t seen the Colts lately, they rarely turn the ball over. New Orleans will have to earn this win themselves. The Saints will score, but not enough to keep up with a Manning-led offense. As I predicted back in early September, the Colts will win their 2nd Super Bowl in four seasons.

Colts 38
Saints 27