The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 3/05/07

UCLA’s two week stay on the top of the list was a short stay. In the ultimate (or penultimate…I’ll see if it makes sense to do one more ranking next week) rankings, the list gets more shake ups from the top to the bottom. I tried not to include any team with 10 losses.

1. Ohio State (27-3), LW-3: This is not a reflection of how good I think the Buckeyes are. This is actually a reflection of how bad and how weak the Big 10. Only one team in the conference was able to beat a flawed OSU team. It helps OSU that a bunch of other top 10 teams lost.
2. Kansas (27-4), LW-4: Solid wins in Oklahoma and home against Texas. Doesn’t matter that they were playing a Durant-less Longhorns team for the second half.
3. UCLA (26-4), LW-1: While on their Washington road trip, you’d think that UCLA would lose in the Palouse rather than in Seattle. They got it all backwards. That curious loss drops them two spots.
4. Texas A&M (25-5), LW-2: Can’t really punish them for losing in double overtime in Austin. I think it’s about time that we seriously consider Acie Law for national player of the year. He has my vote.
5. Memphis (27-3), LW-8: Clearly not the fifth best team in the country…but the 27-3 record has to be rewarded while terrible losses by other teams need to be punished.
6. Florida (26-5), LW-5: Ugly, ugly loss to an average Tennessee team. The worst part was that Florida actually looked like they were trying (unlike their loss to Vanderbilt). They still were never really in the game.
7. North Carolina (25-6), LW-6: They beat Duke, but everyone seems to be doing that. Their lopsided loss in Atlanta carries more weight this week.
8. Nevada (27-3), LW-7: The loss to Utah State was predictable. It was a road game against a rival and it was in overtime. In other words, not a terrible loss. A conference game is a conference game. It’s always hard to win on the road. This is true whether you play in the ACC or the WAC.
9. Wisconsin (27-4), LW-11: 52 points against Michigan State at home? And they WON? That’s how bad the Big 10 is. No way this team scores nearly enough to win more than two games in the Dance.
10. Oregon (23-7), LW-12: Didn’t do much this week. They beat lousy Oregon State by 21. Other than that, they were idle while other teams fell around them.
11. Georgetown (23-6), LW-9: After I awarded them with a top 10 nomination last week, they go out and lay an egg less than 24 hours later at Syracuse. What was that about? Still, the Hoyas win the Big East outright, which is good I guess. I would help if the Big East was a better conference.
12. Washington State (24-6), LW-10: It looked like vintage WSU last week against UCLA. And when I say vintage, I mean the Washington State that can’t score 50 points at home. Here’s hoping we don’t see vintage WSU the rest of the season.
13. Notre Dame (23-6), LW-16: Can this really be the 13th best team in the nation. Sure, why not? When they’re on, they can hit three after three and can’t be stopped. Lately, they’ve been very, very on.
14. Maryland (24-7), LW-18: The nation’s hottest team continued their streak this week with two beat downs of Carolina schools. This is probably where the Terps should have been ranked last week.
15. Louisville (22-8), LW-17: Quiet week for the Cardinals. They only had to beat Seton Hall and they did. As for where they should be ranked in the upcoming tournament, it depends which Louisville you look at. If you look at the conference Louisville, then they should probably be a three or four. If you look at out of conference Louisville, they would probably be a nine. As you see further below, I took the average of the two.
16. Texas (22-8), LW-13: The win over A&M wasn’t as impressive as the first half they played at Phog Allen. Too bad they lost Durant midway through the game and we never saw how the game really should have ended.
17. Southern Illinois (27-6), LW-13: This is more like it for Southern Illinois. They aren’t in the Nevada/Memphis class, nor are they lower down with Air Force and media darling Butler. 17th makes sense.
18. UNLV (25-6), LW-NR: The more you look at this team, the more you realize that they are the best squad in the Mountain West. You also realize that they are right up there with SIU in terms of non-BCS schools.
19. Marquette (23-8), LW-21: Good clean sweep of Pittsburgh means that despite more losses, the Eagles jump the Panthers in the standings. Seriously, which team would you be more worried about in the NCAA’s?
20. Pittsburgh (25-6), LW-15: Falling, yes I am falling/But she keeps calling/Me back again/Falling, oh yes I’m falling…
21. Arizona (20-9), LW-NR: Really, after Pittsburgh, it’s a crapshoot. You can throw any one of 20 teams in these last five spots. Arizona doesn’t have 10 losses, so that’s why they are in.
22. Brigham Young (23-7), LW-NR: 13-3 in the Mountain West? Really?? Well, I felt that warranted a reward with a ranking. That, plus a road win at the AFA helps the Stormin’ Mormons into the top 25.
23. Butler (27-5), LW-NR: Not in the rankings for awhile because I think that they peaked two months ago. They haven’t beaten anyone special since November. Even Maryland’s November wins don’t count as much as Butler’s. Why is that?
24. Xavier (23-7), LW-NR: I’ve wanted to put the Muskies in the Top 25 for a few weeks now. This week was my chance to do it. Seriously, how poor are some of these other teams that the Musketeers were actually able to sneak into the rankings?
25. Virginia (20-9), LW-25: Virginia stays because they beat Virginia Tech and did finish tied at the top of the ACC standings. That said, the loss to Wake with everything on the line was inexcusable.

Next 10: Tennessee, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Southern California, Duke, Air Force, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Winthrop, Indiana

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics. The conference winners are in bold.

POWER
ACC (8): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova
Big 10 (5): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Pac 10 (6): Arizona, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State
SEC (4): Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: The Clemson road win, coupled by the beating that Alabama took this week, put Clemson back in the picture. No 20 win ACC team has ever been left out of the NCAA’s. Clemson has 20 wins. It comes down to their first round game against FSU. A win seals the deal. A loss seals a NIT bid. Syracuse, Kansas State and Stanford have done more than enough to get bids themselves.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10: Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West: Air Force, BYU, UNLV

Notes: San Diego State is still hanging around the MWC. A strong showing there could get them a bid. Same for UMass in the A10. Other than that, these are the teams that are making the tournament.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Toledo
Missouri Valley: Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga
Western Athletic: Nevada

Notes: The Colonial got a whole lot more interesting last night. Drexel should be eliminated from consideration. VCU, by making the title game should be in. However, with ODU’s lost to Mason, there is no more tenuous bubble team in the country. If Mason wins the conference tonight, then ODU won’t be going. If Mason loses to VCU, the league is too good to only get one team in, so ODU is probably in line to get the second selection. Missouri State should be in despite losing in the semifinals. The MVC needs three teams, and MSU is better than fourth place Bradley. Plus, the committee owes them one after leaving them out last season. South Alabama lost in the quarterfinals of the Sun Belt, which makes WKU (remember them?) the favorite to get the auto bid.

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Pennsylvania
MAAC: Siena
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwestern: Mississippi Valley State

Notes: Five teams are already in. All the other favorites are still alive and listed here except for the MAAC. Top seed Marist slipped in the semis and will be relegated to the NIT. My personal favorite Loyola-MD also lost in the semis. Siena will probably beat Niagara tonight. Or they won’t. Who cares?

THE BRACKETS

Here are the brackets. Personally, I think Texas A&M should be a one seed, but it’s not going to happen. I still don’t think Wisconsin should be a one, so Florida became the fourth number one seed by default. Virginia, after losses to Miami and Wake Forest, is a six seed on most brackets. They are an eight on mine after I figured in losses to Appalachian State and Utah. On the other hand, I gave the Dookies a decent five seed despite the two game slide and the thuggery that “coach” Mike Ratface Cheney allowed to happen this past weekend. There aren’t a lot of mid-majors this season, but what they lack in quantity they make up for in quality. There are a bunch of 3-6 seed mid-majors, which means that there may be more upsets than usual because the 10-12 seeds are occupied by a bunch of BCS schools. Anyway, here’s my take on it. By the way, Washington State can't play in Spokane, Kentucky can't play in Lexington and Ohio State can't play in Columbus.

EAST RUTHERFORD REGION
Lexington
(1) Ohio State vs. (16) Delaware State/Miss. Valley St.
(8) Texas Tech vs. (9) Villanova
Columbus
(4) Southern Illinois vs. (13) Davidson
(5) Oregon vs. (12) Clemson
Lexington
(3) Memphis vs. (14) Pennsylvania
(6) BYU vs. (11) Kansas State
Columbus
(7) Boston College vs. (10) Indiana
(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Oral Roberts

ST. LOUIS REGION
Chicago
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Eastern Kentucky
(8) Vanderbilt vs. (9) Stanford
Buffalo
(4) Notre Dame vs. (13) Old Dominion
(5) Virginia Tech vs. (12) Gonzaga
Sacramento
(3) Washington State vs. (14) Western Kentucky
(6) Louisville vs. (11) Missouri State
Winston-Salem
(7) Tennessee vs. (10) Michigan State
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) Siena

SAN ANTONIO REGION
New Orleans
(1) Florida vs. (16) Belmont
(8) Virginia vs. (9) Creighton
Spokane
(4) Texas vs. (13) Vermont
(5) UNLV vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth
Winston-Salem
(3) Maryland vs. (14) Holy Cross
(6) Butler vs. (11) Winthrop
Chicago
(7) Arizona vs. (10) Syracuse
(2) Wisconsin vs. (15) Weber State

SAN JOSE REGION
Sacramento
(1) UCLA vs. (16) Central Connecticut State
(8) Air Force vs. (9) Kentucky
Buffalo
(4) Pittsburgh vs. (13) Toledo
(5) Duke vs. (12) Illinois
Spokane
(3) Nevada vs. (14) Long Beach State
(6) Southern California vs. (11) Georgia Tech
New Orleans
(7) Marquette vs. (10) Xavier
(2) Texas A&M vs. (15) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi