2007 NCAA Tournament: San Antonio/San Jose Regional Finals

If it wasn’t for Texas A&M, my brackets would be cleaner than John Thompson III’s head. I was a flawless 4-0 yesterday, pushing the overall record to 43-13. Now, to show that I’m not perfect, I’ll direct you to last March. I finished an ugly 1-6, and I’m still very bitter about that. A couple of friends keep reminding me. I’m waxing them in my pool right now, but I still want to finish strong.



#2 Memphis Tigers (33-3) vs.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (33-3)
Alamo Dome – San Antonio, TX
South Region Final
What’s the deal with Memphis? They’re not supposed to be here. Don’t they know that they were supposed to lose two rounds ago? I’ve been very impressed with the Tigers. Chris Douglas-Roberts has been sensational over the last three games. So has Joey Dorsey. Jeremy Hunt may be the best bench player left in the tournament. He starts on most teams.

This is the part of the post that I’m required by U.S. Law to mention that Memphis got their gaudy record by playing in a weak conference, their win over Texas A&M was their only good win in three months and they haven’t faced anyone like Ohio State all season. Now that we got that out of the way, can these Tigers beat the Ohio State Buckeyes?

The Buckeyes have proven to be anything but invincible. Falling behind by 10 in the second half to Xavier and by 20 against Tennessee should have sent all those who picked OSU in their pool into a slight tizzy. Some will say that those tests were good for the Buckeyes. After running through an easy conference themselves, Ohio State needed those games to wake them up. Those games also prove to the Buckeyes themselves and their future opponents that OSU is never out of a game, even if they fall behind big early. That is sure to instill some kind of confidence if Ohio State runs into another tough patch today or next weekend

However, the other way to look at the Buckeyes first half troubles, is that if they keep falling behind, they’ll eventually play a team they can’t come back against. All it takes is a 10-12 point deficit against a complete team (which Xavier and Tennessee weren’t). Memphis is good enough to hold a lead. So are Georgetown (if they themselves can stop falling behind in games) and North Carolina. Keep falling behind, and it’s only a matter of time.

That said, Ohio State is the better team in this game. Their guard play alone should be enough to catapult them to a win here. Memphis loves to work the ball inside, which will play right into the strength of Ohio State’s defense. First off, the guards have quick hands and will make any entry feeds difficult. Second, if the pass is completed, some guy named Greg Oden will be there to block the shot.

How does Memphis beat Ohio State? There are two ways to beat this team. One is to force Oden and Othello Hunter out to the perimeter in half court sets. Dorsey and Robert Dozier really don’t like playing outside more than Oden and Hunter do. So that strategy probably won’t work for the Tigers. The second way to beat this team is to turn the game into a track meet. North Carolina did this in their win over the Buckeyes. It is worth noting that Oden didn’t play in that game, but UNC was still able to tire out Hunter and Ivan Harris. I would assume that a similar pace would do the same Oden.

Defensively, Memphis needs to get their athletic big men out to the perimeter. It is clear that Thad Matta has made shooting threes a priority. Oden is only a secondary member in this offense. He’s going to get his points when OSU makes an effort to go inside. However, it’s the Buckeye guards that will kill you. Ron Lewis has had two outstanding games in a row. Mike Conley is just waiting to go off. Daequan Cook has been awful quiet off the bench and it’s only a matter of time before he gets involved. Memphis will have to avoid Oden when they have the ball, but must stop the guards first when they are on defense.

I think Memphis is just a bit too reckless on offense. They are going to have a lot of passes picked off and they are going to have a lot of shots blocked. I think Memphis’ strength of going inside plays right into Ohio State’s hands. The Tigers will make it interesting, but they’ll fail to get key baskets down the stretch.
Pick: Ohio State 76, Memphis 69




#2 UCLA Bruins (29-5) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (33-4)
HP Pavilion – San Jose, CA
West Region Final
I took UCLA to win the whole shebang, and the reason was kind of foolish. I got to this point in my brackets, and I couldn’t figure out who would win this game. I went back and forth on the two teams. Originally, I had UCLA, but then I switched to Kansas for several days before changing back to UCLA hours before the tournament began. I came to the conclusion that the winner of this game would win the national championship. I just couldn’t figure out who to take. I eventually went with the Bruins because of Kansas’ rocky tournament showings in the past two decades. That was stupid, I know. Those meltdowns and choke jobs mostly came with Roy Williams at the helm. Bill Self’s teams haven’t played well in recent tournaments, but some of the players who helped lose those games were recruited by Williams. This Jayhawk team is really Self’s first completely recruited team. But I saw the name Kansas, and had the typical knee jerk reaction as the voice in the back of my head told me not to take this team in a virtual tossup game.

I regretted the pick until Thursday. I saw UCLA easily dispose an overmatched Pitt team and also watched as Kansas struggled mightily with an even more overmatched Southern Illinois team. The one problem that everyone talked about when discussing Kansas reared its head. Who is the go-to-scorer on this Jayhawk team? The old saying that “if you even have to ask who the go-to-guy is, that team probably doesn’t have one” is true in this case. In a tight game against an inferior team, Kansas didn’t know where to turn, and only escaped because SIU had problems themselves on several late possessions and shooting free throws.

Bill Self is to blame for that problem. It is the coach’s job to put the ball in the hands of his best player (or one of his best two players) down the stretch in close games. But this is a squad that had a six game stretch when six different players led the team in scoring. Self has never forced his team, or any of his players, to take responsibility in close games. That’s why they lost to A&M at home. That’s why they nearly lost to Texas at home (and would have if Durant hadn’t gotten injured). That’s why they nearly ducked out early against the Salukis.

UCLA is not a team that Kansas is going to run off the court. The Bruins play the typical Ben Howland aggressive defense, and UCLA has the weapons on the perimeter to keep up if Kansas goes on a scoring spree. I think Josh Shipp and Arron Afflalo match up very, very well with Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush. Shipp, who will probably be forced to stop the dangerous Rush, is the best defender in the Pac-10, and better than anyone Rush has matched up against in the Big XII. Afflalo has a four inch height advantage on Chalmers. In two otherwise equal guards, that height advantage should be enough to give the edge to Afflalo. And if Chalmers and Rush somehow stop Afflalo and Shipp on the other end, then who on Kansas stops Darren Collison?

The X-factor is Julian Wright. UCLA is a bit weak inside. Luc-Richard Banana-Fana Mbah-a-Moute was supposed to take the next step this year for the Bruins and never did. He still puts up a respectable 8.6 points and 7.7 rebounds a game. But he isn’t the dominant player on both ends of the court that Howland must have envisioned at the beginning of the season. As for the other UCLA big man, Lorenzo Mata, the only thing I can picture when I think of him is the abuse he took in the final game against Florida last season. He was pawned by Al Horford and Shemale on almost every possession. This should open the door for Wright and Kansas if the Jayhawks decide to get Wright the ball and make him the go-to-guy in this game.

In a close game, don’t count on Kansas. I think the defense for the Bruins gets it done early, keeps the game close late, and allows their superior guards to take over and hit big shots in the end. Kansas won’t know who to turn to in the end.
Pick: UCLA 73, Kansas 70