2007 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 2

I went three and one last night to improve the record to 39-13. The only problem is that the “one” was Texas A&M getting bounced by a point because the Aggies suddenly forgot how to rebound. It didn’t help that Karl Hess, fresh off screwing up every ACC game he officiated, couldn’t keep track of the clock and cost the Aggies a decent shot at the end of the game. So I lost one of my Final Four teams. The good news is that UCLA is still alive, so the team I have winning it all can still get it done.

East Rutherford Region
Continental Airlines Arena

#6 Vanderbilt Commodores (22-11) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (28-6)
On paper, this game seems to heavily favor Georgetown. They are rolling off two easy wins, they have the best frontcourt remaining in the tournament, they face a team that struggles against physical squads and they’ve already beaten the Commodores this season 86-70.

But this game should be closer than it appears at first glance. The Hoyas, while playing well recently, haven’t really been challenged. The best team they played in the past month was Pitt, and seeing as the Panthers just made their annual early exit, I’m not sure how good those wins were. The Roy Hibbert-Jeff Green combination are great rebounders and defenders, but they struggle to score at times (they only combine to score 26-27 points a game). Hibbert especially has problems being consistent. He was non-existent in the first half of the Hoyas win over Boston College. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, has had tough times against physical, defense first teams. But, they did just beat a solid Washington State team to get to this game, and they did it by out-defending them. Plus, that 86-70 win for G’town came in November. It was the first game Vanderbilt played and they were missing two injured players.

Georgetown has lost games against smaller teams that are lightning quick. Old Dominion, Oregon, Notre Dame and Syracuse all fit that bill. If there is a way to beat the Hoyas, the blueprint isn’t to go inside and attack their Twin Towers. The way to do it is control the perimeter and then use blow bys. Georgetown’s backcourt is strictly average. Jessie Sapp and Jonathan Wallace are nice players. They certainly aren’t anything special.

I think that the 6-6 Shan Foster and 6-6 Derrick Byars create matchup problems for the Hoyas. They are too big for the guards to cover on the top of the key, but they are too quick to have Jeff Green come out to help. So therein lies the dilemma for John Thompson III. Do you bring taller, slower forwards outside to help on the perimeter while at the same time playing away from your interior strength? Or, do you take your chances that Foster, Byars and Dan Cage don’t hit their outside shots over smaller guards?

The problem for Vanderbilt is that they have no defensive answer for the Hoyas inside if Georgetown makes a concerted effort to attack the post. Ross Neltner and Ted Skuchas are soft inside for the Commodores. They are completely overmatched. Even though Kevin Stallings is the better coach, and Derrick Byars is the best player on the court for either team, the only way the Hoyas lose is if they try to make this an outside shooting contest.
Pick: Georgetown 70, Vanderbilt 65

#5 Southern California Trojans (25-11) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (30-6)
So how about that Pac-10? I’ve told you since December that the Pac-10 was the best conference in the country this year. They have three teams in the final 16, which is one more than the Big East and the Big XII, and is two more than the Big 10 and the ACC. And they were only a double overtime game away from having four teams qualify.

The most impressive performance of the tournament was not by conference heavyweights UCLA or Oregon, or by overachieving Washington State, but by Southern Cal. The meandering Trojans, a team that seemed to turn it on and turn it off from game to game, had it turned all the way on in their 19-point dominance of Texas. It was a game that sent USC to the Sweet 16, Kevin Durant to Memphis (the Grizzlies, not the Tigers) and should have sent Rick Barnes to the unemployment line.

The talent is there for the Trojans to pull an upset. They are playing a spitting image of themselves. They face a Carolina team that can be invincible if they are interested; frighteningly mortal if they aren’t. Neither team plays much defense. Neither team is all that interested in half court sets. USC wins this game if Carolina comes out like they did against Michigan State. I felt, and still feel, that UNC still has an extraordinary performance up their sleeve before they duck out for good. We haven’t seen it yet from Carolina, and I have a feeling this may be the game Carolina decides to run their opponent out of the gym. I’m just going with my gut instinct for this one.
Pick: UNC 88, USC 79

St. Louis Region
Edward Jones Dome

#5 Butler Bulldogs (29-6) vs.
#1 Florida Gators (31-5)
I guess you should take everything I say here with a grain of salt, because I’m still a little bitter from the Maryland game this past weekend. Butler is nothing more than a gimmick team. All they do is run the clock down and jack up shots. They were lucky to hit enough shots to beat Maryland. Like all gimmick teams, they’ll have a game that their little trick doesn’t work, and they’ll be blown out.

Maryland had to face two consecutive three-point jacking teams. It is time to move the three point line back. It has become way too easy for anyone with a jump shot to hit threes. That shot was designed to be a reward for real good shooters, not a strategy for otherwise average teams.

Mid-majors are playing one of two styles. One is the suffocating defense with non-existing offense style that Southern Illinois tries to perfect. The other is the Davidson-Butler-Winthrop style of hoisting up shots and simply hoping that enough fall. This is good enough to win a game or two, but certainly not enough to make it through the second weekend. And certainly not enough to be taken seriously. The NCAA needs to put a stop to this. It should take more than randomly firing up 20 or more threes in a game to win. I’m sorry, that’s just not basketball. It’s even worse than the boring Southern Illinois style. No passing, no real defense, no set plays. Just jack up threes. That’s why Gonzaga is always seen as a threat and these other schools aren’t. Gonzaga does more than just force up threes.

Here’s a prediction. Butler won’t hit 50% of their threes and they’ll be lucky to stay within 15 points against a team that can do more than just shoot.
Pick: Florida 82, Butler 65

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#7 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (30-6) vs.
#3 Oregon Ducks (28-7)
So who had this one? I believe that would be me! And finally, an exciting basketball game that doesn’t feature a media-darling powerhouse or mid-major.

We have two teams that have flown under the radar all season (but not on this page). They can both score, but they can both play a little defense when it’s needed. Wait, these teams play defense? They sure do. True, they both average in the high 70’s to low 80’s and don’t do a good job limiting the amount of possessions their opponents get. However, they can both play defense. UNLV went through a two month long stretch when they didn’t give up 30 points in the first half. Oregon has spent the last two games doing a good job stopping those dangerous three-point jacking mid-majors.

I expect this game to be close as long as UNLV can hang with Oregon’s shooting barrage in the first half. Don’t look for the Rebels to limit the Ducks to under 30 points by the break. Kevin Kruger, Wink Adams and Wendell White are all legitimate threats from outside, as the ousted Badgers found out last Sunday. The problem for UNLV is the lack of inside productivity on the offensive end. If the shots don’t fall early in the game, UNLV doesn’t have the ability to generate easy points inside. The Rebels, if they shoot poorly early, could be blown out in the first 20 minutes.

Oregon on the other hand, is only one of two teams in the NCAA tournament that has all five starters score in double-digits (the other was Maryland). So that means that the two Oregon forwards are contributing. For the Ducks, this is really a dream matchup. They are undersized against almost any other team. They have even been dramatically overshadowed by several mid-majors this season. Yet, they still managed to win 28 games. Now they face a team that they can not only outscore, but for a major change, they can outmatch inside. While Aaron Brooks, Malik Hairston and Tajuan Porter get most of the attention for Oregon, don’t be surprised if big man Marty Leunen has a field day and is the star for the Ducks in this game.
Pick: Oregon 86, UNLV 83