Maryland Basketball: On The Road Again

Maryland Terrapins (17-10, 7-5) at
Miami Hurricanes (18-7, 5-6)
BankUnited Center - Coral Gables, FL

The loss to Virginia Tech is right along the lines of Maryland’s home loss to Clemson in 2005. That season, the Terps were up and down most of the way, but were starting to get hot down the stretch (with a win against Dook as the premier victory), and really only needed two wins over the course of the final five games to seal a tournament spot. The Terps had a stern home test with North Carolina and tough road game against NC State. So getting those two wins wouldn’t be easy. But the one game that everyone was counting on was a home game against lowly Clemson.

In that game, Maryland came out emotionless. They fooled around with an inferior Clemson team and gave them chance after chance to win the game. Eventually, Clemson took them up on one of those chances. The Terps couldn’t grab a rebound down the stretch, Clemson shot lights out in the final 10 minutes and Maryland lost by four. Sound familiar?

The loss to Clemson led to three more losses to end the regular season before losing to Clemson again in the first round of the ACC Tournament. As a Maryland fan, and as a senior, the home loss to Clemson was probably the toughest to take. As hard as all the losses to Dook in 2001 were, and as tough as some of the early tournament exits back in the mid-90’s were, the home loss to Clemson sunk Maryland’s season and was the number one reason they missed the NCAA tournament for the first time in 12 seasons. And it was a game that Maryland should have won going away. It was an odd feeling watching that Clemson game. You could tell that Maryland didn’t come to play. You could feel the season slipping away despite several games left to go. It was a sense of hopelessness, depression and anger all wrapped into one. I don’t think I’d ever had that feeling watching a sporting event before, and I hadn’t felt it since. Until Wednesday.

The loss to Virginia Tech was almost identical. The way Maryland played. The way they allowed a bad opponent to hang around until that opponent took advantage of one too many mistakes. The timing of the loss (Maryland lost that home game to Clemson on February 22). The amount of games left in the season. The way the rest of the schedule sets up. Maryland’s record then and now are almost the same. It’s frighteningly parallel.

Obviously I’m getting ahead of myself, but I couldn’t shake the feeling that this was the beginning of the end for Maryland’s season. I say that as a person who never gets too worked up after losses or too excited after wins. One game is just that. It’s one game and it means very little in the big picture. But all the problems Maryland’s had throughout the course of the season (and they’ve had quite a few) all reared their heads at some point during this game. Inability of anyone other than Greivis Vasquez and James Gist to score? Check. Long spells without scoring at all? 1 field goal in 22 possessions qualifies. Stretches where Vasquez feels the need to take every shot and force every pass? Yep, 7 turnovers from the point guard. Bad perimeter defense? Just in the last five minutes, but it was crucial. Lack of bench production? Zero – count them – zero points from the entire bench.

I’ve been saying this the entire season. As James Gist goes, so go the Maryland Terrapins. The Terps are 0-6 when he doesn’t score 10 points or more. 7 points against UCLA, 9 against VCU, 8 against Ohio, only 3 against American, 9 at Dook and only 7 points on Wednesday. All of those games ended in losses (most of them not close). That shows how important Gist is to the offense and how completely dependant upon him Maryland is. Vasquez is going to score his 20 points. That’s great. But if Gist struggles, no one else steps up. You can’t rely on one player to carry the team. Look at Virginia. Sean Singletary can go nuts and Virginia will still lose by 15. Opponents are more than happy to let Vasquez score 20. As long as he forces shots and as long as Eric Hayes continues in his funk and as long as someone from the bench doesn’t step up, it doesn’t matter what Vasquez does. But if Vasquez and Gist are scoring, not only does it make Maryland nearly impossible to defend, it makes everyone else on the team better. The best defenders are reserved for those two, and if they are drawing the attention, that means more open shots for Hayes, Milbourne and Osby. Right now, defenses are willing to let Vasquez score 20 points, let him turn the ball over on bad passes and they’re not letting Maryland’s limited supporting cast beat them. Why worry about Gist if Vasquez and Hayes can’t get him the ball? Gist has to put at least 15 points on the board if Maryland expects to win. When Maryland won 11 of 13 games, Gist averaged over 18 points a game. In their 10 losses, Gist averages 11. When Gist is in the game, Maryland’s offense is tough to stop, and the Terps are tough to beat. Otherwise, it’s the Vasquez Show, and teams have been willing to let that show occur.

Alright, enough. On to Miami. Maryland faces one of the teams that habitually gives them trouble for the only time all season. After three straight losses to Wake, Dook and FSU, it appeared that the Canes were going to fold up tent and call it a year. But they’ve won three straight games by a combined five points to storm right back into the NCAA tournament discussion. Five combined points in three games doesn’t sound great. However, considering those games were at both Techs, and then a thriller against Dook at home, those wins are rather impressive for a team that hasn’t gotten a big win since entering the conference a few seasons ago. Miami will be a motivated team, since their conference record of 5-6 is still not good enough to compliment the overall record of 18-7.

One thing is working in Maryland’s favor. Miami played probably their best game of the season on Wednesday against the Dorks. Whereas Maryland faced a Virginia Tech coming off a 39-point loss to UNC and couldn’t possibly play worse, the Terps face a Miami team that scored 96 points and at one point led the vaunted Dookies by 20 (before the refs tried their hardest to help Ratface). The Hurricanes couldn’t possibly play much better than they did Wednesday. They are primed for a letdown. The closest they came to 96 points in a conference game before their contest against the Nerds was an 82-point effort in a lopsided loss to UNC. The Canes average 74 points a game in conference, but if you take away their outburst on Wednesday, the point production is right around 70. I don’t think we’ll see another effort like that today.

However, the Hurricanes don’t need a 96 point effort if Maryland’s offense continues to struggle. And I think they will. Miami has a lot of big bodies inside. They are a very physical team, exactly the type of team Maryland has struggled with in years past. When Maryland was losing to Clemson in 2005, that Tigers team was almost identical to this Miami team. A bunch of big men inside with limited skill, but terrific rebounders, combined with one or two decent shooters. Anthony King, Dwayne Collins, Jimmy Graham and Brian Asbury, players that have given Maryland problems in the past, are all still in Coral Gables and are all still filling the rebound category on the stat sheet. Combine four physical power forwards with two decent shooters in Jack McClinton and Jamie Dews, and Maryland could be in for trouble. You beat Miami with speed and depth. Maryland possesses the first, but certainly not the latter.

I’m going to pick the Terps because I have faith in this team bouncing back. I’m not basing this on what I saw Wednesday night, or what I’ve seen the past three games, but on what I’ve seen overall the past two months. Get James Gist going early, which will be tough against all the wide bodies, and then finish Miami off with threes in the second half (which they have trouble defending). Hopefully the loss to Virginia Tech was a fluke, and not a case of history repeating itself.

Maryland 74
Miami 71

Elsewhere in the ACC…

SATURDAY
Boston College at Florida State
The Eagles are still playing? I feel like they just take the court once every few weeks to lose to Virginia. Let’s go with the home team that has more than one capable scorer.
Pick: Florida State 83, Boston College 71

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
While the Techsters of Georgia may be far better engineers, the Techsters of Virginia still have something to play for on the basketball court. And their arena doesn’t have a major leak. Pretty embarrassing and ironic for one of the better Technological Institutes, don’t you think?
Pick: Virginia Tech 80, Georgia Tech 66

SUNDAY
NC State at Virginia
The Wolfpack put up a pretty good fight against UNC, but even though the effort was commendable, the result was not. That loss effectively ended any chance they had left at making the NCAA tournament. But, since Virginia isn’t playing Boston College, I’ll take the Pack.
Pick: NC State 75, Virginia 73

Wake Forest at North Carolina
The Deacons are playing with a lot of confidence and are a young team that doesn’t know any better and doesn’t know they should lose this game by 25 points or more. I have a feeling they’ll keep it close, but they’ve had seven days off between this game and their banner win against the Dookies, and that’s too long of a layoff.
Pick: North Carolina 87, Wake Forest 81