Maryland Basketball: Winner's Mentality

Virginia Tech Hokies (14-11, 5-6) at
Maryland Terrapins (17-9, 7-4)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

You have to be careful what you wish for. The last Maryland post was a long diatribe on wanting to see more from the freshmen on the bench. Well, because of severe foul trouble on Saturday afternoon, that wish was granted. And they didn’t look all that good. I was hoping that Gary would give some of the reserves chances to play on the road in the next couple of weeks, but I didn’t want to see a lineup of Bowie-McAlpin-Milbourne-Neal-Dupree on the court with a few minutes to go in the first half and Maryland trailing Florida State at home by a few possessions. Not what I had in mind.

Fortunately, Maryland put on another stellar second half, righted the ship, and won by an uncomfortable 10 points. I kind of saw this average performance coming. Heck, my predicted score was only one-point away from the actual score. Florida State had too many players that could get hot from the outside. In this case, it was time for Ralph Mims to have a career game. Put Mims on the rather long and continually growing list of “ACC players who do nothing all season until they play Maryland and then have an once-in-a-lifetime game”. Or APWDNASUTPMATHAOIALG for short.

Anyway, Maryland survived a stern test from a game Seminoles team and lived to tell about it. So I guess no harm, no foul (known to ACC officials as no harm, but there’s a foul whenever I feel like calling one in the second half or whenever Dook is on the court). Hopefully the Terps stopped reading all the glowing press clippings from media outlets and started focusing on the task at hand. Maryland is in prime position to nab a tournament spot, but they have a long ways to go. I think it’s safe to say that if the Terps win four of their final five, they’re in the Dance no matter what happens at the ACC tournament. However, a 9-7 or 10-6 conference mark, combined with a first round exit in Charlotte, should make all Terps fans nervous on Selection Sunday. The Atlantic 10 is trying to finesse Xavier and four mediocre teams into the NCAA’s. And they’re awfully close to doing it. The Mountain West could grab three bids. The WCC is going to be a two-bid league for the first time in awhile. The Sun Belt may be as well. Teams like Oklahoma, California, Oregon and Mississippi State are going to get unexpected bids from the power conferences. So there are fewer available spots than you might think.

Aiming for three wins in the final five games is, as Greivis Vasquez said, “a loser’s mentality”. The Terps have the ability, should they choose, to win at least four of the last five, do a little damage in Charlotte, and earn themselves a 5 or 6 seed. Or they could aim for three of five with a quick exit from the ACC tourney, and earn themselves a 9 seed or worse. Up to them.

Right now, it appears that Maryland will be either the 3 or 4 seed in Charlotte, which means potential games with Georgia Tech, Wake Forest or Virginia Tech after a first round bye. Which brings me to tonight’s game. I’m not going to spend too much time talking about this tilt. We’re going to try and keep this post short. Virginia Tech beat Maryland at home by a single point way back on January 12th. The only team that the Terps of lost to since are those rejects from Durham. So a lot has changed in the past 5 weeks.

Initially, Virginia Tech looked like a team that would be able to overcome the losses of Jamon Gordon and Zabian Dowdell and make a run for a NCAA bid. Since January 12th, the Hokies have fallen back to the pack with losses to Georgia Tech, NC State and Miami. Last weekend, the Hokies suffered a 39-point loss to North Carolina without Ty Lawson playing a single minute. The lack of adequate backcourt play and the lack of talented depth have drained Tech of almost any chance at a NCAA bid. Now all Maryland had to do is land the knockout punch.

While Tech doesn’t have a lot on the bench, they’ll throw nine or ten guys on the court every night. The only three players that the Terps have to watch out for are resident thug Deron Washington (whose Mom is threatening to overtake Eric Williams’ mother for most annoying ACC parent), A.D. Vassallo and Jeff Allen. Washington can be handled pretty easily. Don’t let him catch the ball inside, and he’s useless. Vassallo, as he did in the last meeting in Blacksburg, is going to shoot a whole bunch of threes. Which means he’ll probably be somewhere around the perimeter all game. Someone find him. Allen, when not busy shoving refs, is a major threat inside on the offensive and defensive end. He’s got a lot of talent, but it appears that Allen also enjoys a lot of Big Macs. I have a feeling one of two things are going to happen with Jeff Allen as his career progresses. He’ll either play his way into the NBA, or he’ll eat his way out of the ACC. Right now, it appears the latter has a much better chance of happening. Gary, this game would be the prime opportunity to allow Shane Walker and Braxton Dupree to get some minutes inside facing an equally inexperienced power forward for Tech. Use Boom for about 26-28 minutes or so, and let the other two rotate in as necessary. I would love to see this. Please make this happen.

The Maryland team that lost to Virginia Tech was completely different from the one the Hokies will face tonight. The home court advantage will be at least a 6-8 point swing. Maryland’s improvement will also be another 6-8 point swing. There should be no problems here.

Maryland 75
Virginia Tech 62

Elsewhere in the ACC…

WEDNESDAY
North Carolina at NC State
This is the last stand for Sidney Lowe and company before we officially declare the Wolfpack one of the major disappointments of the 2007-08 campaign. Like I said they’d be.
Pick: North Carolina 82, NC State 64

Duke at Miami
Here’s a brief recap of Ratface during the second half of the Wake Forest game:

Dook goes up 5: Cut-away, Ratface sitting on bench.
Wake Forest goes up 1: Cut-away, Ratface sitting on bench with finger over mouth.
Wake Forest goes up 8: Cut-away, Ratface scratches his toupee, says five words to Johnny Dawkins
Wake Forest pulls away: Cut-away, Ratface sitting on bench with finger over mouth.

Great coaching there buddy.
Pick: Duke 78, Miami 71

THURSDAY
Virginia at Georgia Tech
The Cavaliers possess two ACC wins. They’ve both come against Boston College. Poor Al Skinner. He misses Craig Smith.
Pick: Georgia Tech 74, Virginia 69