2008 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 1

Before we move on to the predictions, it’s time once again to check in on “bracketologist” Joe Lunardi. At Noon on Selection Sunday, Lunardi had both Arizona State and Ohio State squarely in the bracket, and both Baylor and Villanova out. In fact, Villanova wasn’t even in his “Last Four Out.” Nova was third in his “Next Four Out.” That means, according to Lunardi, Villanova would have had to jump SEVEN teams to make the dance. Suddenly, around 5:00 p.m., Lunardi did his final update. All of a sudden, there’s Villanova as a 12-seed. I’m not sure what Villanova did from Noon to 5 p.m. on Sunday to jump seven teams, but it must have been something. Or…Lunardi had someone from the committee war-room call him, like he does every year, and slip him the information.

I have no problem with Lunardi receiving inside information. If he wants to get and if the committee wants to give it, who am I to say no. However, his Bracketology is based on guessing. It’s not based on inside info. If you have insider information, you are no longer guessing. You are telling. He is misleading people into believing that he gets 33 of the 34 teams correctly every season, when he clearly doesn’t. Does he get 31 correctly? Yes, but the clowns on talk radio and at the Baltimore Sun can get 31 correctly (hell, even I did it). Does he routinely miss on only one pick a year? Not a chance. Lunardi is giving predicting a bad name. If you have inside information, why don’t write a breaking news article and post it on ESPN.com. That way you’re not representing what you do as guessing. You would instead be telling the public facts which is called reporting. Nice try Joe, I caught you again.

Anyway, I got you covered over the next few days for all sorts of predictions. There are two ways to predict the tournament games. The most common, and the one used in office pools and online challenges, is the locked bracket. You make all your picks at once and you have up until the first game to change it. After that, if your championship team loses in the first round, you are pretty much screwed. You keep track of those using a point system (1 point for a first round win, 2 points for a second round win, etc…). I will put in my locked bracket in a minute.However, I also want to predict and talk about each game. So before each round of action, I analyze the games for that upcoming day. Even if I didn’t have either team in my locked bracket, I will make new predictions for each round. For example, I have Vanderbilt and Clemson advancing to the second round. If both Vandy and Clemson lose in the first round, it will hurt my locked bracket for the rest of the tournament (Not only would I lose two points for getting the games wrong, but I would not be able to pick up two points for the next round). In the “refreshing bracket”, I would be charged for the two losses as usual. However, I would be able to make a new prediction on the second round game between Siena and Villanova that I wouldn’t be able to make if the bracket was locked. Those picks will come daily. I’ll keep track of those picks using a win/loss record.

Locked bracket is as follows:

East
1st round winners: UNC, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Washington State, Oklahoma, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee
2nd round winners: UNC, Washington State, Louisville, Tennesee
Sweet 16 winners: UNC, Louisville
East Region Finalist: North Carolina

Midwest
1st round winners: Kansas, UNLV, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown
2nd round winners: Kansas, Clemson, Southern Cal, Gonzaga
Sweet 16 winners: Kansas, Southern Cal
Midwest Region Finalist: Kansas

South
1st round winners: Memphis, Mississippi State, Temple, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Stanford, Miami, Texas
2nd round winners: Memphis, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Texas
Sweet 16 winners: Memphis, Stanford
South Region Finalist: Stanford

West
1st round winners: UCLA, Texas A&M, Drake, Connecticut, Baylor, Xavier, Arizona, Duke
2nd round winners: UCLA, Connecticut, Xavier, Arizona
Sweet 16 winners: UCLA, Xavier
West Region Finalist: UCLA

FINAL FOUR
Semifinals: UCLA over Stanford, UNC over Kansas
Final: UCLA 77, North Carolina 70

This bracket will be saved right on this post for all to come back and laugh at after the tournament’s over. My predictions for the first round games will be identical to the first round picks in the locked bracket (but with analysis). The difference between the locked and refresh brackets will become more obvious on Saturday. Friday’s games will be predicted tomorrow. Enjoy.

EAST REGION

Pepsi Center
Denver, CO
#13 Winthrop Eagles (22-11, 10-4 MAAC) vs.
#4 Washington State Cougars (24-8, 11-7 Pac-10)
The Cougars are a solid team, but with a glaring weakness. Now, they’re not as bad inside as Duke, because they at least have big bodies to throw at you. Those big men just aren’t skilled. When Wazzau gets past the Eagles, who can’t challenge them inside, they’ll probably run into tall Notre Dame followed by the North Carolina Hansbroughs. The Cougars have two of the three things that are necessary at this time of year. The first is commitment to some resemblance of defense. The Cougars take that to the extreme. The second is veteran leadership. WSU starts three seniors and two juniors. The final thing is balance. I’m not just talking about balance on the offensive end. I’m talking about total team balance. The Wazzau defense is so much better than their offense, and their guards are just so much better than their forwards. While their strengths are obvious, their weaknesses are too. I would like to take them farther than the Sweet 16, but I can’t.
Pick Washington State 71, Winthrop 63

#12 George Mason Patriots (23-10, 12-6 CAA) vs.
#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-7, 14-4 Big East)
These guys again? The biggest, baddest mid-major is back for more! And this time, their taking names. Ok, I don’t know what that means, but I was all set to pick Mason until yesterday afternoon. As part of my job, I attended their last open practice in Fairfax before their trip to the mountains. First, they all looked dead tired, which in the high altitude is not the best condition to be in. Secondly, the Mason scout team was running Notre Dame’s most basic plays (versions of the high-low screen and release which opens up a shooter at the top of the key or a post man underneath) and the starters were having no luck defending it. Something tells me that when Kyle McAlareny and Luke Harangody start running it against today, the Patriots could have a lot more problems. Plus, the Irish play five different guys who are 6-8 or taller, while Mason only has one player taller than that on their roster. Not this year Jimmy.
Pick: Notre Dame 80, George Mason 67

MIDWEST REGION

Qwest Center
Omaha, NE
#16 Portland State Vikings (23-9, 14-2 Big Sky) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (31-3, 13-3 Big XII)
If you are new to this site, and I have to assume you are, I don’t waste time on 1 vs. 16 games. There is no point. In the current format, no 16 seed will ever beat a 1. We’ll talk about Kansas and the other #1’s on the weekend
Pick: Kansas 95, Portland State 68

#9 Kent State Golden Flashes (28-6, 13-3 MAC) vs.
#8 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (26-7, 12-4 Mountain West)
Kent State is a little team, but I don’t think they stand much of a chance in this one. UNLV has struggled this year against teams with big centers. It’s not that UNLV doesn’t go inside. They actually do attack the hoop quite a bit. The Rebels just don’t have anyone who is taller than 6-8 on the team and they don’t do well against athletic big men. Luckily for UNLV, Kent State doesn’t have an athletic big man. These two teams might as well be mirror images of one another, and UNLV has been beating those kind of teams all season long in the Mountain West. If you get a chance, check out UNLV’s Wink Adams. He may the best pure shooter in the tournament not named Shan Foster.
Pick: UNLV 79, Kent State 74


ON A WINK AND A PRAYER: Get to know Wink Adams, who should deliver at least one tournament victory for UNLV

#14 Cal State-Fullerton Titans (24-8, 12-4 Big West) vs.
#3 Wisconsin Badgers (29-4, 16-2 Big 10)
Again with the Badgers. The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Badgers won’t have the problems with Fullerton that they did in their first round game last year against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. But they’re still going to have problems in the second round. Wisconsin simply can’t score enough. We’ll get into that on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Titans are anything but. They start three players who are 6-5 and two who are 5-11. Wisconsin should have a field day inside. Should.
Pick: Wisconsin 65, Cal State-Fullerton 49

***THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE DAY***
#11 Kansas State Wildcats (20-11, 10-6 Big XII) vs.
#6 Southern California Trojans (21-11, 11-5 Pac-10)
This was the obvious matchup that jumped out at me, and I’m sure at most fans, in the first round when the brackets were first announced. The game will actually take a backseat to the Michael Beasley-O.J. Mayo contest, even though they both play different positions and won’t be going one-on-one. Still, it will be interesting to see the two freshmen go at it before heading to the NBA. Nice to see the NCAA decided to put this game in Omaha, a city that just screams out “big game.”


O.J. Mayo (32), has Taj Gibson to help him out. Michael Beasley? Well, there's a reason he had to average almost 30 points a game.

As for the game itself, it’s very tricky to pick. I really think the winner of this game makes the Elite 8. The problem is, either one of these teams could win it. If you pick the wrong one, your bracket is in early trouble. Beasley can carry a team more than Mayo can, but Mayo is on the better team. Other than Bill Walker, try naming another KSU player. It’s hard because the rest of them don’t have an impact. Even Walker has trouble staying in the game because he commits too many dumb fouls. Davon Jefferson and Taj Gibson for USC are consistent contributors, and the supporting casts are going to make the difference in this one. Unless Beasley drops 40. If that’s the case, I can’t be held responsible.
Pick: Southern Cal 83, Kansas State 77

SOUTH REGION

Pepsi Center
Denver, CO
#13 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (24-8, 16-2 Summit) vs.
#4 Pittsburgh Panthers (26-9, 10-8 Big East)
This is a trendy upset pick, and trust me, I want to pick it. ORU just doesn’t matchup well enough with Pitt for me to take them. ORU can score, but they are extremely streaky. They can score 80 points one night, 60 the next. Their best player even comes off the bench (Robert Jarvis who leads the team with 16 points per). The only reason they won 24 is the conference they play in. When Tulsa is your best win, you probably shouldn’t be a 13 seed. On the other side, you know how much I dislike Pitt, known on this page as the Wisconsin of the East. They got a terrific draw, and it would be hard for Jamie Dixon to pull off his usual 2nd round exit. Then again, never underestimate him.
Pick: Pittsburgh 68, Oral Roberts 64

#12 Temple Owls (21-12, 11-5 A-10) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (25-8, 12-6 Big 10)
All you really need to know is this stat: the Spartans are 17-0 at home, and 7-7 when they’re not. I’m assuming that Denver is no where near Michigan State. While MSU has impressive wins, they’ve also had some poor losses. This is typical Big 10 team. They have some decent defense coupled with inconsistent to lousy to awful offense. Temple has three proven scorers, including talented Dionte Christmas. They also have the height, the patience and the discipline to go toe-to-toe with an average Big 10 team. Plus, guess who’s calling the action in Denver? None other than Gus Johnson! What would the first round be without Gus’ head almost exploding during an upset. It just wouldn’t be March. The biggest upset of the first round goes to the Owls.
Pick: Temple 62, Michigan State 55


It's clear to me that Scarlett is thrilled to be back sponsering this page again during tournament time. She's also not excited about Big 10 basketball. But no one else is either.

Honda Center
Anaheim, CA
#14 Cornell Big Red (22-5, 14-0 Ivy) vs.
#3 Stanford Cardinal (26-7, 13-5 Pac-10)
These schools have a lot in common. Both lack a sense of plurality. Both are extremely tough academically. Both have players 7-feet or taller. That’s where the similarities end. The Cardinal have the talent and balance to make the Final Four. The Big Red…eh, not so much.
Pick: Stanford 74, Cornell 57

#11 Kentucky Wildcats (18-12, 12-4 SEC) vs.
#6 Marquette Golden Eagles (24-9, 11-7 Big East)
Unlike their Big East brethren Pitt, or their in-state brethren Wisconsin, Marquette can put some points on the board. If they could just do it consistently, they’d be all set. Unfortunately, they’ve had five months to fix that problem and haven’t done it. Their guard play should be good enough to notch a win here, but they’ll have a lot of problems in the next round. As for Kentucky, anyone who read this page last season knows I’m a huge Billy Gillispie fan. It’s not his fault that there wasn’t much in the cupboard in Lexington this season. However, the Cats did not deserve a NCAA bid. Even more so since losing Patrick Patterson to injury. I like the Eagles, and karma, for this game.
Pick: Marquette 77, Kentucky 71

WEST REGION

Honda Center
Anaheim, CA
#16 Mississippi Valley St. Delta Devils (19-15, 12-5 SWAC) vs.
#1 UCLA Bruins (31-3, 16-2 Pac-10)
Like I said, there’s no reason to waste time on 16 vs. 1 matchups. Cool name though for Mississippi Valley. Maybe they should put in a call to Jerry Rice for this game.
Pick: UCLA 86, Mississippi Valley St. 55

#9 Texas A&M Aggies (24-10, 8-8 Big XII) vs.
#8 Brigham Young Cougars (27-7, 14-2 Mountain West)
Because I’m a Gillispie fan, I still remain a fan of Texas A&M, even though Gillispie is in Kentucky and Acie Law is in the NBA. Mark Turgeon has gone through growing pains in his first season in a power conference. Turgeon had the misfortune of losing Law, and he doesn’t have another true point guard on the roster. This can explain why A&M has been up and down all season, despite having quality players at all the other positions. That’s also why the Aggies won’t be around the tournament too long. Teams without good point guards don’t make Final Fours. They should be good enough to sneak by the Stormin’ Mormons. I already picked UNLV, which means my self-imposed rule of picking at least one Mountain West to advance has already been fulfilled.
Pick: Texas A&M 74, BYU 71

Verizon Center
Washington, DC
#14 Georgia Bulldogs (17-16, 4-12 SEC) vs.
#3 Xavier Musketeers (27-6, 14-2 A-10)
Now we come to the Washington DC games. This is a really intriguing region. I would love to have the day off on Thursday and take a quick skip down to the Phone Booth. Three of the games today could go either way, and that other game involves a team I would love to heckle for 40 minutes. Both games on Saturday should be close too. We start with the red-hot Bulldogs, at team that has already played Cinderella, against a Xavier team that I can’t figure out. Georgia kicked down the door and earned their invite by winning the Tornado Tournament in Atlanta. Winning three games against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Arkansas in a span of 27 hours was very impressive. Fatigue should not be a concern for them. In fact, having four days off may cool off the Dawgs. Xavier, as noted a lot on TV this week, is the only Division 1 team with six players averaging 10 or more points a game. Impressive to be sure. But other than Drew Lavender (who can do more than score), none of the Musketeers really stand out. However, Xavier has three of the things I talked about earlier. They have senior leadership, balance throughout the team and they play enough defense to get by. They’ll probably lose in this region because their defense isn’t spectacular, but it shouldn’t be in this game.
Pick: Xavier 72, Georgia 67

#11 Baylor Bears (21-10, 9-7 Big XII) vs.
#6 Purdue Boilermakers (14-8, 15-3 Big 10)
This is the game I would really like to see. Baylor is so much fun to watch. They get up and down the court. While their defense is extremely suspect, their offense can make up for it. They also press on almost every made basket, which can explain part of the reason their defensive stats are below average. Purdue comes from the Big 10, which automatically earns them a strike in my book. As you might have noticed, I have three of the Big 10 teams losing in the first round and Wisconsin falling in the second. So none of the Big 10 teams should make it out of the first weekend. I think Baylor handles Purdue pretty easily here. The older players on this team remember what happened a few seasons ago with the Dave Bliss-Carl Dotson-Patrick Dennehy mess (ironically enough, if both Baylor and Georgia win, the Bears will face a player named Dave Bliss). This is a team playing with a major chip on their shoulder. Should be good enough to get Baylor past Purdue, and maybe even past Xavier.
Pick: Baylor 81, Purdue 71

#15 Belmont Bruins (25-8, 14-2 Atlantic Sun) vs.
#2 Duke Blue Devils (27-5, 13-3 ACC)
You know why people hate Dook? It’s because of the breaks they get. First of all, this team is a traditional three seed, but they get over-seeded as usual. Then they get a cushy sub-regional, with Xavier as their 3 seed and incomplete teams like Purdue, WVU and Arizona hanging around. Finally, they get to play in DC instead of Raleigh. The Dookies don’t want to play in Raleigh because the building is going to be 75% Carolina fans. So of course, the committee bends over backwards to send them to Washington. Even though that’s what Dook wanted (and asked the NCAA for), I’m not sure why they think DC will be better. Who do you think is going to occupy most of the seats? Maryland fans! It will also be filled with Georgetown fans that don’t have the money to follow their team to Raleigh. Georgetown fans also tend to have a strong dislike for Dook. Here’s hoping that this plan backfires on the Blow Devils and the NCAA on Saturday. I’m sure we’ll see Karl Hess officiating to make sure the Dookies get to Phoenix.
Pick: Duke 86, Belmont 63


Felt this was a good time to show some Eric Maynor. I doubt Belmont's Shane Dansby will get a chance to do this today.

#10 Arizona Wildcats (19-14, 8-10 Pac-10) vs.
#7 West Virginia Mountaineers (24-10, 11-7 Big East)
The reason that Arizona made this tournament is because of their stellar road wins. They’ve won at Washington State, at UNLV and at Southern Cal. And they played UCLA tough in Los Angeles. If this was the early game, and you were making Arizona play at 9:30 a.m. PST, then the Fightin’ Hicks would have a huge advantage. Since they’re not, and West Virginia really hasn’t beaten anyone of significance away from home, then Arizona stacks up pretty well despite the poor finish and poor record. The Cats have also had tons of injury problems, but most of them have been solved. Jerryd Bayless is a player that WVU has no answer for. Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill more than counter West Virginia’s Joe Alexander inside. WVU has height, but other than Alexander, that height is raw. The big guys for West Virginia are basically bodies. They are fouls to give. The ‘Queers have no slashers, no good mid-range shooters and are both poor rebounders and free throw shooters. Too many athletes on Arizona. Too few for the Hicks.
Pick: Arizona 83, West Virginia 74