The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 3/11/08

The latest Top 25.

1. North Carolina (29-2), LW-1: Continue to prove they should be the overall #1 seed, even though I’m not sure they’re capable of winning it all.
2. UCLA (28-3), LW-2: Two generous wins to say the least this past week. But they did win twice against very good competition.
3. Tennessee (28-3), LW-3: Quiet week for the Vols as they took care of business. With Kansas and Texas charging up behind them, it looks like Tennessee will have to win the SEC tournament if they want to assure themselves of a #1 seed.
4. Memphis (30-1), LW-4: 40-point drubbing of UAB was impressive. Only 10 days before they start facing real competition again.
5. Kansas (28-3), LW-5: Waiting for either Tennessee or Memphis to lose so they can slide in to the Top 4.
6. Texas (26-5), LW-8: #1 seed not out of reach if they win the Big XII tournament.
7. Stanford (24-6), LW-6: Loss to UCLA not really their fault. The Cardinal were the victim of the worst call of the year to date. Following loss to USC was definitely a form of the hangover effect.
8. Wisconsin (26-4), LW-13: Clinching the Big 10 title has got to be worth something. Not much, but something. Badgers have probably assured themselves of a bad enough opening opponent in the NCAA tournament to continue their tradition of losing in the second round.
9. Duke (26-4), LW-7: This team peaked a month ago, and they weren’t all that great a month ago.
10. Xavier (26-5), LW-9: Loss at St. Joseph’s not all that surprising considering the circumstances. They were facing a desperate team that was closing out their gym.
11. Georgetown (25-4), LW-12: Another last-second win. The law of averages will even out soon. It’s only a matter of time before the Hoyas lose in the final minute.
12. Vanderbilt (25-6), LW-10: Still like this team in the NCAA’s if they find a way to stop with the excessive turnovers.
13. Louisville (24-7), LW-11: This is still the best team in the Big East, no matter what the standings say.
14. Connecticut (24-7), LW-14: This is still the second best team in the Big East, no matter what the standings say.
15. Drake (28-4), LW-18: The Bulldogs fell to 18th last week in the polls, and apparently they were pretty upset about it. They took it out on Illinois State with a 30-point win in the MVC final.
16. Notre Dame (24-6), LW-17: The Irish are clearly in the second tier of Big East schools. They have first round upset written all over them.
17. Butler (28-3), LW-19: Doing what they have to, and what they’re expected to do in the Horizon League.
18. Indiana (25-6), LW-15: Like Duke, the Hoosiers peaked a month ago. Like the Irish, they will be sitting ducks in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
19. Purdue (24-7), LW-16: The Boilermakers continue to fly under the radar. They play good defense and are balanced offensively, which is a good combo for March.
20. Washington State (23-7), LW-23: Narrowly beat instate rival Washington at home, but since a bunch of teams ahead of them lost, WSU moves up.
21. BYU (25-6), LW-24: Finally established themselves as the best of the Mountain West after a strong finish of the regular season.
22. Michigan State (24-7), LW-21: Despite a blowout win over Indiana last week, the recent loss to undermanned Ohio State shows that the Spartans are still a very average team with a lot of flaws.
23. Clemson (22-8), LW-20: With better free throw shooting, Clemson could have easily been 13-3 in the ACC.
24. Mississippi State (21-9), LW-NR: A very tough team to figure out. At times, MSU looks like a team that could sneak up on people and make a run to the elite 8. Other times, they look like a 6 or 7 seed that will be bounced early.
25. Gonzaga (25-7), LW-25: Loss to San Diego is easy to explain. The Toreros had everything to play for, the Zags already had their bid sown up. San Diego just wanted it more.

Next Up: UNLV, Marquette, Baylor, USC, Kent State


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics. The conference winners are in bold.

POWER
ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, Miami, North Carolina
Big East (8): Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10 (4): Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State
SEC (5): Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Maryland, Virginia Tech and Florida are all gone. I still have Ohio State, Oregon and Mississippi on the outside looking in. That’s what happens when there are upsets everywhere. I think Arizona State gets in over Oregon, seeing as they’ve basically lost to the same teams, split their series with one another and ASU has a better record by one game. Plus, Oregon has a horrendous lost to Oakland University. Syracuse gets a spot for now, but they must win at least one game in the Big East tournament. Begrudgingly, I have to put Kentucky in as well. I don’t see how a team that went 12-4 in the SEC can miss the tournament. They are one of the few teams to actually play their way in instead of waiting for other teams to lose.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 : Massachusetts, Xavier
Conference USA : Memphis
Mountain West : BYU, New Mexico, UNLV

Notes: Since UAB lost at Memphis by 40, they’re gone. The Mountain West holds steady with three, the Atlantic-10 does the same with two.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Drake, Illinois State
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga, San Diego, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

Notes: Ah, the real shake up is here…as usual. San Diego’s thrilling run in the WCC makes them a three bid conference. And you know what, I actually like all three teams, depending on who they match up against, to get at least one win the NCAA tournament. Illinois State is clinging on to a very thin thread and would be my last team in right now. Contrary to everyone else's opinion, I think VCU is solid. Especially considering that the head of the NCAA committee is Tom O’Connor, who is the athletic director at conference brethren George Mason. South Alabama lost in the Sun Belt semifinals, so they SHOULD NOT get a bid. I fear they will. That is not a two bid conference.

SMALL
America East: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: UC Santa-Barbara
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: Oral Roberts


THE BRACKETS

I'm going to try to do at least one more bracket simulation either Saturday or Sunday. May do another one in a couple of days based on the first rounds of the big conference tournaments. As for this bracket, I wasn't too thrilled with my results. USC should be seeded higher, Miami should be seeded lower. I got stuck trying to seperate all the Big East and Pac-10 teams, and kind of got stuck with Miami as a 7 and USC as an 8. My next one should be better.

However, I made it a point to "underseed" the mid-majors because the committee always does this. That idiot Lunardi is trying to convince people that Xavier is a two seed. NO WAY. If all those Gonzaga teams in the past were underseeded by 2 or 3 spots, the same thing is going to happen to Xavier, Drake and Butler.

CHARLOTTE REGION
Raleigh
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Sacred Heart/Alabama State
(8) Baylor vs. (9) Davidson
Denver
(4) Notre Dame vs. (13) San Diego
(5) Indiana vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth
Omaha
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Cornell
(6) Washington State vs. (11) New Mexico
Tampa
(7) Oklahoma vs. (10) Arkansas
(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Siena

PHOENIX REGION
Anaheim
(1) UCLA vs. (16) Morgan State
(8) West Virginia vs. (9) Kansas State
Tampa
(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) George Mason
(5) Drake vs. (12) Massachusetts
Birmingham
(3) Louisville vs. (14) Stephen F. Austin
(6) BYU vs. (11) Arizona
Raleigh
(7) Mississippi State vs. (10) St. Mary’s
(2) Duke vs. (15) UMBC

HOUSTON REGION
Birmingham
(1) Tennessee vs. (16) American
(8) Southern California vs. (9) UNLV
Washington DC
(4) Xavier vs. (13) Oral Roberts
(5) Michigan State vs. (12) Syracuse
Washington DC
(3) Connecticut vs. (14) Belmont
(6) Butler vs. (11) Western Kentucky
Omaha
(7) Miami vs. (10) Arizona State
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Portland State

DETROIT REGION
Little Rock
(1) Memphis vs. (16) Austin Peay
(8) Pittsburgh vs. (9) Texas A&M
Denver
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Utah State
(5) Clemson vs. (12) Illinois State
Anaheim
(3) Stanford vs. (14) UC-Santa Barbara
(6) Marquette vs. (11) Kentucky
Little Rock
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) Kent State
(2) Texas vs. (15) Winthrop