The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/25/08

The latest Top 25

1. Tennessee (25-2), LW-2: They earned it with a win at Memphis, but despite dominating the boards in that game, the Vols have struggled inside at times this season. That’s a concern going into next month.
2. North Carolina (26-2), LW-3: Two easy wins and a Memphis loss leads to a one spot bump in the poll.
3. Memphis (26-1), LW-1: The two spot drop is a combination of their loss to Tennessee, and two close calls in the weak CUSA.
4. UCLA (24-3), LW-5: I’ll say it again, the healthier this team gets, the more invincible they look. And the more dangerous they become. The Bruins may be the country’s most complete team.
5. Kansas (25-3), LW-4: Loss to Oklahoma State was their first bad loss of the season. Even though they lost to Texas (on the road in the two teams only meeting), I still think they’re better than the Longhorns.
6. Texas (23-4), LW-6: However, after months of playing mediocre basketball, Texas has really proved they are a team worth watching over the last two weeks.
7. Vanderbilt (23-4), LW-8: I smell an upset on Tuesday when the Vols come to town. You heard it here first.
8. Stanford (22-4), LW-9: Now that Robin Lopez is playing as well as his twin, the Cardinal have what amounts to the best front court in the nation.
9. Duke (23-3), LW-7: Yeah, that out-of-conference win against St. John’s (RPI 142) really impressed me. Lucky I didn’t drop the Dookies further down because that game should never have been played in the first place.
10. Xavier (24-4), LW-10: They are playing in an awful lot of close games for a team that’s in the Top 10. I know URI, UMass and Dayton are all supposedly good, but somewhere along the line, the Musketeers have to blow one of these teams out.
11. Louisville (22-6), LW-14: Continue to be the best team in the Big East…even though that’s like saying they’re the smartest kid on the short bus.
12. Indiana (23-4), LW-19: I may have been too harsh on the Hoosiers last week. Now that Kelvin Sampson is gone, I can’t put them a little higher.
13. Georgetown (22-4), LW-15: We’ve already seen how bad the Hoyas are against good competition. So how much money did Big John pay to have a closing stretch that contains Providence, Cincinnati and St. John’s?
14. Connecticut (21-6), LW-13: Slip up against desperate Villanova is just a bump in the road I believe. One loss can’t erase a 10-game winning streak.
15. Wisconsin (23-4), LW-18: Still don’t like the Badgers (since we all know they won’t win more than one tournament game). But, they’ve recently beaten Indiana and Ohio State on the road.
16. Drake (24-3), LW-21: Big movers in the Top 25 this week. I know they lost to Bradley (by a point), but the man-handling of Butler on the road outweighed that loss.
17. Washington State (21-6), LW-12: The Cougars continue to have no bad losses, but they keep losing at home. The loss to Arizona was their fourth defeat in the Palouse.
18. Butler (25-3), LW-11: Final score was not indicative of how soundly Drake beat them on Bracket Buster weekend. That game should be preview of what’s to come in the NCAA tournament for both Bulldogs
19. Purdue (21-6), LW-17: Guess I can’t fault them too much for a loss at Indiana.
20. Notre Dame (21-5), LW-23: Beating the teams they should, but since beating Marquette a few weeks ago, they haven’t played anyone of significance.
21. St. Mary’s (23-4), LW-20: Played well for 35 minutes against Kent State. Must have forgotten about the last five.
22. Michigan State (22-5), LW-NR: Back in with two easy wins and a bunch of teams ahead of them losing.
23. Miami (19-7), LW-NR: Pretty good week for the Hurricanes. They have a huge game Wednesday with Clemson.
24. Texas A&M (20-7), LW-16: The loss to Texas doesn’t worry me. The loss to Nebraska does.
25. BYU (21-6), LW-25: The Cougars are still (but only by a very small amount) the best team in a very competitive Mountain West.

Next Up: Marquette, Arizona, UNLV, Clemson, Kansas State


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until before Selection Sunday. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (5): Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina
Big East (7): Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big 10 (5): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State
SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Miami replaces Wake Forest, but other than that, no changes for the power conferences this week. The Maryland-Wake game on Thursday may be a de facto play-in game (more on that later this week). Syracuse is still on the outside. California and Oregon have played their way out. Mississippi State, Florida and Baylor continue to hang on by a thin thread.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 (3): Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Houston, Memphis
Mountain West (3): BYU, New Mexico, UNLV

Notes: Saint Joseph’s had a terrible loss to La Salle last week. At this point of the season, a loss to a team with a sub-200 RPI is the kiss of death. UMass jumps into the tournament as a replacement. The rest of the majors stay the same. Still think Houston and New Mexico find ways to sneak in.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Sun Belt: South Alabama
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Boise State

Notes: I see a theme here. No changes other than South Alabama replacing Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt. Let me say this one more time…the Sun Belt will only have one team in the tournament. Any bracket expert telling you otherwise is sorely mistaken.

SMALL
America East: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Cal State-Northridge
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Niagara
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Lamar
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: Oral Roberts