The Predictor Tournament Bids & Brackets, Final Prediction

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics. The conference winners are in bold.

POWER
ACC (5): Clemson, Duke, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Big East (7): Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big 10 (4): Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State
SEC (5): Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Virginia Tech has probably done enough with a win over Miami and a nail-biter against UNC. Syracuse, Florida and Ohio State all suffered losses in the first rounds of their tournaments and should be done. The bottom half of the Pac-10 is a mess. Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon can all make a claim, but I think only two of them will be allowed in. Right now, I still think ASU’s overall profile is better than Oregon’s and they should be given the bid (probably the very last one). Arizona doesn’t deserve to get, but they will, so there’s no point denying them here. Kentucky may have to sweat it out with a loss to Georgia, but reputation will get them in as well. As for Georgia and Illinois, I’m assuming that neither will win today. If they do, they’d probably enter the tournament as 13 seeds. Virginia Tech and ASU would probably be the teams coming off the board if that were to happen. I’m also going to assume that Kansas will beat Texas and earn the final #1 seed.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10: St. Joseph’s, Temple, Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West: BYU, UNLV

Notes: Oh, the Atlantic 10 waited for the last weekend to throw everyone a curve ball. Temple comes out of nowhere to win the league while St. Joe’s beats Xavier in the semis. St. Joe’s and Xavier will get bids, and that hurts UMass and Dayton, because the A-10 isn’t worthy of four bids. New Mexico lost in the first round, so they are probably 50-50 to make the tournament at this point. With all the upsets this past week, I don’t think there will be enough at large bids left

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Sun Belt: South Alabama, Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga, San Diego, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Boise State

Notes: Virginia Tech, Temple and New Mexico will conspire to keep out Illinois State. I’ve said for awhile that the Sun Belt should not get two teams this season, and the Missouri Valley shouldn’t either. However, it has become obvious that South Alabama is in, so I put them in as well. VCU is still in based on what they did in the conference and considering the overseer of the committee is from the CAA.

SMALL
America East: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Cal State-Fullerton
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Coppin State
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas-Arlington
Southwestern: Mississippi Valley State
Summit: Oral Roberts


THE BRACKETS

CHARLOTTE REGION
Raleigh
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Mississippi Valley St./Coppin State
(8) West Virginia vs. (9) Oklahoma
Denver
(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Boise State
(5) Xavier vs. (12) Western Kentucky
Tampa
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Siena
(6) Southern Cal vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth
Omaha
(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Kansas State
(2) Wisconsin vs. (15) UMBC

DETROIT REGION
Omaha
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Mt. St. Mary’s
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Miami
Washington DC
(4) Connecticut vs. (13) George Mason
(5) Drake vs. (12) St. Joseph’s
Birmingham
(3) Louisville vs. (14) Cal State Fullerton
(6) Purdue vs. (11) Arizona State
Birmingham
(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Davidson
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Austin Peay

PHOENIX REGION
Anaheim
(1) UCLA vs. (16) Texas-Arlington
(8) BYU vs. (9) Baylor
Denver
(4) Notre Dame vs. (13) San Diego
(5) Michigan State vs. (12) Virginia Tech
Raleigh
(3) Duke vs. (14) Winthrop
(6) Washington State vs. (11) South Alabama
Little Rock
(7) Marquette vs. (10) Kent State
(2) Texas vs. (15) Portland State

HOUSTON REGION
Little Rock
(1) Memphis vs. (16) American
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) St. Mary’s
Tampa
(4) Clemson vs. (13) Oral Roberts
(5) Indiana vs. (12) Arizona
Washington DC
(3) Pittsburgh vs. (14) Cornell
(6) Butler vs. (11) Temple
Anaheim
(7) UNLV vs. (10) Kentucky
(2) Stanford vs. (15) Belmont