2008 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 2

Well, I was 12-4 yesterday. 12-4 isn’t all that bad, except I already lost USC from my Elite 8 and Arizona from my Sweet 16. It would have all been worth it if the Dookies had fallen last night, but they were saved by a couple of late calls that were very questionable (surprise, surprise) and a couple of bad possessions by Belmont. Even though Dook won, Belmont was clearly the better team and the Devils were very, very lucky to avoid an embarrassing loss. Here’s hoping Day 2 goes better for me.

EAST REGION

RBC Center
Raleigh, NC
#16 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (19-14, 11-7 NEC) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (32-2, 14-2 ACC)
I’m all for the play-in game, but do we really have to count that as a NCAA tournament win. It’s not as if the winner played NCAA tournament competition. If The Mount can win hear, maybe we’ll talk.
Pick: North Carolina 94, Mount St. Mary’s 66

#9 Arkansas Razorbacks (22-11, 9-7 SEC) vs.
#8 Indiana Hoosiers (25-7, 14-4 Big 10)
Dan Dakich may be a nice guy (I have no clue, I’ve never even heard the guy speak), but his team is the NCAA’s version of “Dead Man Walking.” They are done. They’ve been done for the past month. There is no Steve Fisher and the Michigan Miracle to see here. I said at the beginning of March that the Indiana Hoosiers had won their last game this season. What’s happened since then? They’ve lost to Michigan State (not all that bad), Penn State (really???) and Minnesota in the Big 10 tournament (are you serious???). That loss to Minnesota came on a miracle shot at the buzzer. If that’s not karma coming back and biting Indiana for hiring Kelvin Sampson in the first place, I don’t know what is. The Hoosiers could be playing Coppin State, and I’d seriously think about taking Coppin State. The fact that they’re an 8-seed and playing a decent Arkansas team makes this pick even easier. DEAD TEAM WALKING HERE!
Pick: Arkansas 76, Indiana 67


Hard to believe that one of these is responsible for the collapse of a team that has Eric Gordon and D.J. White.

BJCC Arena
Birmingham, AL
#14 Boise State Broncos (25-8, 12-4 WAC) vs.
#3 Louisville Cardinals (24-8, 14-4 Big East)
The Broncos played the most entertaining game of any of the conference tournaments (except for the Tornado Bowl featuring Mississippi State-Alabama). They needed three overtimes, on the road, to beat New Mexico State. The problem for the WAC is that the lesser team won. NMSU would have probably been a 13-seed, and would have been a dangerous matchup to several of the 4-seeds. The Broncos are too slow, and aren’t that tall, to hang with better teams. Reggie Larry is one of the four or five best players in this tournament you’ve never heard of. At 19 points and 9 rebounds a game, Larry does a little bit of everything for the Broncos. It’s his supporting cast that’s the problem. Other than Larry, there’s not much else on Boise State. And they're pretty small in the front court. Louisville is the one Big East team I trust, so I’m going to ride with them for a little bit.
Pick: Louisville 78, Boise State 66

#11 St. Joseph’s Hawks (21-12, 9-7 A-10) vs.
#6 Oklahoma Sooners (22-11, 9-7 Big XII)
In my opinion, St. Joe’s doesn’t deserve to be in this tournament. The Atlantic 10 got way too much pub this season. The Hawks got in because of their tournament win over Xavier in the semifinals, but that win should have been negated by their loss to Temple. They’ve had several bad losses in conference. They were only 9-7 in a conference that isn’t one of the Power 6. Their RPI was 44. Their schedule strength was in the 50’s. Their best win outside of the conference was Siena. How is this an at large team? Oklahoma should take care of all that, assuming their entire lineup doesn’t get hurt. But considering that’s already happened once this season, that scenario is not impossible. Blake Griffin (15 and 9 per game) is a beast inside for the Sooners, and if his bum knees hold up, he could be a NBA draft pick in the near future. The Hawks can’t match up with him, or the depth of Oklahoma.
Pick: Oklahoma 68, St. Joseph’s 54

#15 American Eagles (21-11, 10-4 Patriot) vs.
#2 Tennessee Volunteers (29-4, 14-2 SEC)
There was a moment there that I was tempted to take American. I’ve seen a lot of them this year because of my job. But that was a fleeting moment. Way too much talent for the Vols on the offensive end. I can’t see Travis Lay and Brian Gilmore hanging with Wayne Chism and Tyler Smith. American’s guards can keep this close for awhile, but Tennessee should pull away easily in the early 2nd half.
Pick: Tennessee 92, American 69

#10 South Alabama Jaguars (26-6, 16-2 Sun Belt) vs.
#7 Butler Bulldogs (29-3, 16-2 Horizon)
At first glance, the fact that South Alabama is playing a short drive from home certainly looks like an advantage. But this is a team that just lost to Middle Tennessee State on their home floor in the semifinals of the Sun Belt tournament. So I’m not sure how big an advantage that is. The Jags are the complete opposite of Butler. They’ll speed it up, shoot quickly and are very loose with the ball. Even though four South Alabama players can basically score at will, Butler has a knack for making faster, stronger and bigger teams play at their level (see Maryland, 2007). They’ll probably be able to pick up at least one win.
Pick: Butler 71, South Alabama 66

MIDWEST REGION

St. Pete Times Forum
Tampa, FL
#13 Siena Saints (22-10, 13-5 MAAC) vs.
#4 Vanderbilt Commodores (26-7, 10-6 SEC)
This is another one of the “trendy” upset picks. I can’t see it. I can analyze it a million ways and I probably won’t see it. Sure, the Commodores were perfect at home and struggled a bit on the road. But all their road/neutral losses came in conference. And all but one came to pretty good teams. Other than that, the Saints don’t hold one obvious advantage over Vandy. Who stops Shan Foster? That would be SEC Player of the Year Shan Foster (20.6 ppg, 5 rpg). Who stops Alex Gordon? Which one of their 6-7 power forwards stops 6-11 A.J. Ogilvy? Yes, they stopped Stanford. But that was without 7-foot pro prospect Brook Lopez, who was suspended at the time. Taking Siena makes as much sense as taking Winthrop, and you all saw how well that worked out yesterday. These MAAC teams (not named Manhatten) always flame out in a big way in the first round. Siena will be no different.
Pick: Vanderbilt 87, Siena 71


Tennessee couldn't stop this team...do really expect Siena to give them trouble?

#12 Villanova Wildcats (20-12, 9-9 Big East) vs.
#5 Clemson Tigers (24-9, 10-6 ACC)
Villanova shouldn’t be in this tournament. If the committee uses team and conference RPI like they say they do, there is no way an 8th team from the Big East (the 5th rated conference in the RPI) gets in over Virginia Tech. Now, as happy as I am not to see that bum Seth Greenberg in the Tournament, I don’t like seeing a watered-down Big East get eight bids. Clemson should take one back for the ACC. No one was more devastated than me to see Vanderbilt and Clemson in the same sub-regional. I liked both of these teams to get to the Sweet 16, and maybe even the Elite 8. Unfortunately, one of them has to lose this weekend. But we’ll get into that on Sunday. As for Clemson in this contest, I think they’ve played some of the nation’s best basketball down the stretch, and they should certainly be hot enough to take out an average Villanova team.
Pick: Clemson 82, Villanova 70

RBC Center
Raleigh, NC
#15 UMBC Retrievers (24-8, 13-3 America East) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (27-5, 15-3 Big East)
Coming into the tournament, I thought the Hoyas were the worst 2-seed by far. The Dookies went out of their way last night to prove me wrong, but Georgetown, in my mind, is still as lousy as they were when this tournament began. Nothing has changed in the last 24 hours except a near-epic loss by Ratface and his bunch. I think UMBC is better than Belmont, and I don’t think the Hoyas and Little Racist III are any better than the Dookies. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF UMBC WINS THIS GAME. However, with all the Maryland hating that was going on at the America East championship game (I saw and heard it all since I was there in person), I’m not really rooting for the Retrievers to pull off the upset. Seriously, you know all those punks in the stands are Maryland fans most years. But give a fan base a chance to be on ESPN and they turn into morons.
Pick: Georgetown 68, UMBC 61

#10 Davidson Wildcats (26-6, 20-0 Southern)
#7 Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-7, 13-1 WCC)
This is another one of the trendy upset games that I’m shying away from. All I hear about Davidson is how tough a schedule the Wildcats played. The only problem is, Davidson lost to every decent team on their schedule. It’s great that Davidson challenged themselves out of conference, but eventually, you have to actually win one of the tough ones. Yes, they have Stephen Curry, who is an absolutely tremendous player. Yes, that’s the same Stephen Curry that almost single-handedly beat Maryland last season. And yes, Jason Richards has become an excellent complimentary guard to Curry. But Davidson still has no height, which is a problem against better teams. Gonzaga can throw David Pendergraft, Robert Sacre, Austin Dane and the “Mushroom Man” Josh Heytvelt on the court. All those guys are 6-7 or taller. Sacre’s a stiff, but the other three can score and board very well. Jeremy Pargo is a terrific on the ball defender, and should be good enough to stop Richards. Which means it will be Curry trying to carry the team by himself in another tournament game. This is one of Mark Few’s deeper teams, and that depth, along with their height, should be enough to get the Zags past the Curry Show.
Pick: Gonzaga 75, Davidson 72


He's a great player, but Davidson needs more than Stephen Curry if they want to advance in the tournament.

SOUTH REGION

Alltel Arena
Little Rock, AR
#16 Texas-Arlington Mavericks (21-11, 7-9 Southland)
#1 Memphis Tigers (33-1, 16-0 C-USA)
You know, I think I like Memphis in this game. I know that’s going out on a limb, but what the heck, I’ll take a chance.
Pick: Memphis 93, Texas-Arlington 65

#9 Oregon Ducks (18-13, 9-9 Pac-10) vs.
#8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (22-10, 12-4 SEC)
RPI of 58, a .500 conference record and 13 losses overall. Does this sound like a tournament team to you? Well, how about a team seeded ninth in the NCAA tournament? No? Well, you’re not alone in that train of thought. I like Ernie Kent, I really do. But his team simply does not belong in the NCAA tournament this season. They play no defense, turn the ball over way too much and are maddeningly inconsistent (like beating Stanford and Kansas State, only to lose to Nebraska and Oakland University). MSU is a little bit more consistent, but very thin on the bench. Charles Rhodes, Barry Stewart, Jamont Gordon and Ben Hansbrough (yes, related to Tyler) all play 30 or more minutes a game. The Bulldogs should have enough in the tank to beat the Ducks, but they’re really going to struggle against Memphis with less than 48 hours to rest.
Pick: Mississippi State 78, Oregon 72

#15 Austin Peay Governors (24-10, 16-4 OVC) vs.
#2 Texas Longhorns (28-6, 13-3 Big XII)
There’s a lot of talent on Texas…as usual. But Rick Barnes is still in charge, which means the Longhorns will probably lose a round or two ahead of when they should. No one does less with more than Rick Barnes. How did Kevin Durant work out last season?
Pick: Texas 84, Austin Peay 67

#10 Saint Mary’s Gaels (25-6, 12-2 WCC) vs.
#7 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (22-10, 8-8 ACC)
I already picked Gonzaga, so I don’t think I’m required to make have the Gaels moving any further despite the fact that I’ve been hyping them all season. The Gaels simply don’t matchup well with Miami. As I’ve mentioned here, Miami can throw waves of big guys at you, and there’s only one guy who can counter them on Saint Mary’s. Omar Samhan is a solid post player, but he’s always in foul trouble. And I’m going to assume that Miami’s stable of bigs can get Samhan in trouble again. Patrick Mills is a nice player, but Jack McClinton can outscore him easily. Lance Hurdle and Jamie Dews are nice role players that will have big games for the Canes. It might be a dogfight, and it might be ugly, but Miami pulls this one out and the ACC goes 4-0 in the first round.
Pick: Miami 65, Saint Mary’s 58

WEST REGION

St. Pete Time’s Forum
Tampa, FL
***THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE DAY***
#13 San Diego Toreros (21-13, 11-3 WCC) vs.
#4 Connecticut Huskies (24-8, 13-5 Big East)
Looking at this game, there’s nothing on paper to suggest that San Diego will be able to keep it close after halftime. But I fell in love with this team during their run in the West Coast Conference tournament. There’s no way you can convince me that Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are better teams. Each night, it was a different player carrying the Toreros. Trumaine Johnson, Brandon Johnson (who was unconscious in the semifinal against the Gaels) and De’Jon Jackson all played big roles in the backcourt. All three are lightning quick guards who handle the ball very well. Apparently, their performance in the WCC tournament was the best they’ve looked all season. They only average 5 to 6 three-pointers a game, which is in the bottom 10th of the NCAA. As good as Jackson looked in the WCC final, he only averaged 7.7 points per game during the season. Trumaine Johnson, who made big plays in each game didn’t even average six points a game. Gyro Pomare, the Toreros second best scorer behind Brandon Johnson, did nothing in the WCC and looked awkward and lethargic inside. But, I have a feeling that this game is going to be very close. This is a hot team, and I like taking teams that make runs in their conference tourney. San Diego is much faster than UConn. All three guards are great defenders (Brandon Johnson was near the top of the NCAA in steals) and key the Toreros offensive break. If they can press and cause turnovers, and force the Huskies to run, they have a chance. UConn, despite having more talent, is very inexperienced. No senior sees significant playing time. This is a game that the quicker guards of USD can dictate. If UConn is able to slow this game down, and establish 7-3 Haseem Thabeet inside, San Diego will have no answer. Thabeet will struggle in regulation, but when the game goes to overtime, he will be the x-factor and carry the Huskies to victory.
Pick: Connecticut 77, San Diego 75 (OT)


Brandon Johnson and young coach Bill Grier have already had a terrific March. They may even be around a little bit longer.

#12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (27-6, 16-2 Sun Belt) vs.
#5 Drake Bulldogs (28-4, 15-3 Missouri Valley)
I’ve seen enough of Drake to know that if they’re on from outside, there are very few teams in the nation that can beat them. Every player that steps on the court for Drake can shoot. They’re balanced on both ends of the court and have balanced scoring. Four players average over 10 points a game. The starter that doesn’t is MVC tournament MVP Adam Emmenecker, who is a fun player to watch. He’s all hustle and earns every point, rebound and steal he gets. On the other side, I’m excited to get a chance to see Courtney Lee. I’ve only been able to watch one half of one game for Western Kentucky. I’ve heard a lot about Lee (20.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and I’m looking forward to seeing if the hype matches the production. Other than Lee, there isn’t much on the WKU roster, and the balanced Drake should outshoot and out-defend the Toppers for the win.
Pick: Drake 75, Western Kentucky 64