2008 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 1

Through the first round I’m 23-9. Not that good. In fact, that's pretty lousy. I knew, I just knew, I should have taken San Diego. When I first filled the bracket out, I had that upset. I probably changed that sometime on Wednesday. I even knew the game would go into overtime (as you can see by the prediction). I’m pissed, that would have been a great upset to have. On to round 2.

EAST REGION

Pepsi Center
Denver, CO
#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25-7) vs.
#4 Washington State Cougars (25-8)
Neither team was really challenged in their first round games. Both were popular upset picks and there were many brackets that had both losing. Notre Dame had a 17-0 run in the first half to put away George Mason and helped the nation avoid another undeserving run for an unworthy program. Washington State found themselves tied at the half with Winthrop, but the Eagles didn’t come out for the second. I turned my attention away from that game for five minutes, and the Cougars somehow jumped out to a 20-point lead.

This was one of the few second round matchups that I had correctly. I’m going to stick with my original pick. I like Wazzau’s commitment to defense. Other than Pitt, Notre Dame has not had a lot of experience facing suffocating defenses in the Big East. On the other hand, WSU has had to face offenses like UCLA’s, USC’s, Arizona’s and Oregon’s all season long. This should be nothing new to them. Washington State will do what they do best – make the game ugly – and scratch out a win with some timely outside shooting from Kyle Weaver.
Pick: Washington State 69, Notre Dame 64

MIDWEST REGION

Qwest Center
Omaha, NE
#8 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (26-8) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-3)
Like the two teams above, neither Kansas or UNLV had problems dispatching their first round opponents. For Kansas, it was expected. They ran through, past and above overmatched Portland State for the easy win. They should be well rested for this game. UNLV held Kent State’s offense to 10 first half points. From the 10-20 minutes of the game that I watched, it looked as if the Rebels could do no wrong.

This will be a very interesting game for the Jayhawks. On paper, they should win going away. But, UNLV is exactly the type of team that’s given Kansas trouble in past tournaments. Undersized, but scrappy and senior-heavy teams seem to have the Jayhawks number. The Rebels have all the tools to beat Kansas. They have two quality three-point shooters in Wink Adams and Curtis Terry. They don’t turn the ball over, as they have one of the best assist-turnover ratio’s in the country. They play sold…not necessarily terrific, but solid defense. And they start all juniors and seniors. Plus, they were in this position last year and beat Wisconsin. So they have tournament experience. This will be a better game than people expect. I think the Kansas height advantage is going to burn UNLV in the end. Unlike the last few years, Kansas has some physicality. They don’t back down if they get hit in the mouth, and they don’t panic when they fall behind. Chalmers, Rush and Jackson just won’t let this team lose. I’m regretting not picking them to win the National Championship. Kansas may overlook UNLV in this one. That, and UNLV’s shooting will keep the Rebels in the game for awhile. Kansas pulls away late for the W.
Pick: Kansas 86, UNLV 78

#11 Kansas State Wildcats (21-11) vs.
#3 Wisconsin Badgers (30-4)
I thought for sure that when O.J. Mayo gave USC a one-point lead midway through the second half, that Kansas State was going to wilt and go away. But Michael Beasley, and more importantly, Bill Walker and Rob Anderson, didn’t let the Wildcats lose. Very impressive win by Kansas State in one of the more entertaining games of the tournament thus far. I said that the winner of that USC-KSU game would make the Elite 8, and I’m not going to back down from that prediction. Unfortunately, in my locked bracket, I took the wrong team.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, was predictably less than impressive in their win over Cal State-Fullerton. That game was in doubt until there was about five minutes left to go. Wisconsin may be great defensively, but as I say every season, they simply don’t have enough offense. I can guarantee you that Beasley is just salivating for his matchup with Dook-esque White Stiff Brian Butch. If Walker and Anderson compliment Beasley like they did against Southern Cal, Wisconsin doesn’t stand a chance. This will be a blowout. Even if those two struggle, I still like Beasley to go off for 30-plus and will Kansas State over a team that can’t score. Heck, there’s even an outside shot that he outscores the Badgers by himself.
Pick: Kansas State 71, Wisconsin 57

SOUTH REGION

Pepsi Center
Denver, CO
#5 Michigan State Spartans (26-8) vs.
#4 Pittsburgh Panthers (27-9)
I’m going to spend as much time on this game as I’m going to spend watching it. In other words, not much time. This is a game that will set back basketball 30 years. First one to 60 wins.
Pick: Pittsburgh 64, Michigan State 58

Honda Center
Anaheim, CA
***THE PREDICTOR GAME of the DAY***
#6 Marquette Golden Eagles (25-9) vs.
#3 Stanford Cardinal (28-7)
Marquette played a pretty ho-hum game against Kentucky. They never really impressed, but they did enough to get by without really being threatened. The game basically went down as I figured it would. Stanford toyed around with Cornell for 10 minutes, but then put the beat down on the Big Red in the next 30. Neither of the Lopez twins expended much energy and they should both be ready to go this afternoon.

This game is interesting for the contrasting styles. The Eagles are a heavy perimeter team similar to the Dookies (the exception being that Marquette can play tough when it needs to and the Dookies play soft down key stretches). The Cardinal are as reliant on their inside game as any other team in this tournament. I don’t see the Stanford guards hanging with the much quicker Dominic James and company. And I don’t see Ousmane Barro and the smaller Marquette forwards stopping the Twin Lopez Towers. Brook and Robin have been far more consistent than James, Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews, so I’ll take the Cardinal in a squeaker.
Pick: Stanford 68, Marquette 66

WEST REGION

Honda Center
Anaheim, CA
#9 Texas A&M Aggies (25-10) vs.
#1 UCLA Bruins (32-3)
The best way to describe the Aggies this year is to call them a more talented Maryland. Texas A&M has the ability to beat any team on any given night, but they also have the ability to lose any game they play. Their first round game was an example of that. They jumped out to an 11-0 start against the Stormin’ Mormons, kept BYU at bay for the first 20 minutes, and cruised into halftime. Then the Aggies played terribly for the next 15 minutes, allowing BYU to catch up and even take the lead, before finally overtaking the Cougars in the final five. That’s just like Maryland except A&M actually managed to pull out a victory.

That is what happens when you don’t have consistent guard play. Donald Sloan and Dominique Kirk are both shooting guards. Both have been thrust to the point position this season. Neither one appears that comfortable. When A&M goes bad, these two are turning the ball over, taking bad shots and not involving powerful big men DeAndre Jordan and Joseph Jones. Sounds exactly like Maryland to me.

Since I picked UCLA to win it all, this game has me nervous. Very nervous. A&M is just the type of team that can give the Bruins trouble. Jones and Jordan can matchup and play better than Kevin Love and Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute. Sloan is a good on and off ball defender, exactly what an opponent needs to stop Darren Collison. Josh Carter and Josh Shipp are nearly mirror images of one another. The matchup between Kirk and Russell Westbrook is basically a tossup. A&M is one of the few teams that can matchup with UCLA at every position. Collison has played very well at point this year for UCLA, and even though Sloan should be able to limit him, Collison should create all kinds of problems for Sloan when the Aggies have the ball. This game will come down to turnovers and backcourt mistakes, and that’s not good for A&M.
Pick: UCLA 75, Texas A&M 70

Verizon Center
Washington, DC
#6 Purdue Boilermakers (25-8) vs.
#3 Xavier Musketeers (28-6)
You want to know how crazy the first day of the tournament was? The highest scoring team was Purdue. Yes, Purdue. 90 points in their win against Baylor. Purdue, from the Big 10, scored more points than any other team on the first day of the NCAA tournament. Some of that was Baylor’s defense, but if you figure out the entire reason why that happened, please let me know.

The law of averages has to work here. There’s no way the Baby Boilers are putting up 90 points again. There’s no way they come close to 90. Got to play the percentages and play the assumption that Xavier’s defense isn’t as bad as Baylor’s. Hopefully.
Pick: Xavier 73, Purdue 62

#7 West Virginia Mountaineers (25-10) vs.
#2 Duke Blue Devils (28-5)
So, who had Belmont +2? Not me. But I was glad to see it. Two bad calls in the final two minutes of the game, and two bad Belmont possessions in the final minute of the game cost the Bruins a chance at a monumental upset. In their loss, the Bruins proved my point. If Dook isn’t shooting well from the outside, they can lose to anyone. That could mean North Carolina or Wake Forest or even as we saw Thursday, Belmont.

The Bruins didn’t even have a big man of note, and they were still the far better team out there. Belmont was better than Dook for about 30 of the 40 minutes, and was one or two plays away from comfortably winning the game. Heck, if Gerald Henderson is too busy swinging cheap elbows on his way to the basket, he could have missed the layup and Dook would have lost anyway. There are too many good teams in the NCAA tournament. There are too many teams with good big men. There are too many teams that play decent perimeter defense. There is no way Dook gets by them all. None.

Let’s go back to what I said on Thursday. I said it was stupid for the Dookies to ask to get away from Raleigh because of all the Tar Heel fans. The fans in D-C are mostly Maryland fans, who dislike Dook as much as our Carolina brethren. To prove that point, The Predictor will be sitting only a few rows from Ratface and the Nerds today. I hope I don’t get anything that’s contagious.
Pick: West Virginia 82, Duke 77