2008 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 2

6-2 yesterday to get to 29-11 on the tournament thus far. And of course, it wouldn't be a first weekend of the NCAA touranment if we didn't bid farwell to the Duke Blue Devils and Ratface. It's called a power forward. Look into it. I think the best thing about Dook losing is they're going to basically return the exact same team next season. There is no dominant big man heading to the slum of Durham this summer. I don't think Ratface will be able to pull of 28 wins next year. It's also time to bid Jamie "The Joker" Dixon goodbye. Now you know why you don't need the letter "O" to spell Pittsburgh Panthers. Why should the name have an "O" if the team doesn't?

EAST REGION

RBC Center
Raleigh, NC
#9 Arkansas Razorbacks (23-11) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (33-2)
The more I look at this Arkansas team, the more I’m confused on how they were able to win 23 games. They have a bunch of scrappers, but they don’t do anything particularly well. Their 3-point shooting is below 35%. Their free throw shooting is well below the 70% water mark. They only score 74 points a game, and they surrender almost as much. They have a negative assist-turnover ratio. They’re strictly average in terms of rebounding. How did they win 23 games against real competition?

The win against Indiana was less than impressive. Indiana mailed – or texted – in their season a month ago, and they were a first round exit waiting to happen. Arkansas just put them out of their misery. The Hoosiers only contended for about 10 to 15 minutes in that game and never appeared that interested. Hope the new coach has fun handling a .500 team next season without D.J. White and Eric Gordon.

Anyway, as for this game, I like Carolina, and I like ‘em big. They’re going to create problems at nearly every position for the smaller and slower Hogs. Arkansas hasn’t faced a team in the SEC even remotely similar to UNC. While I like the senior leadership of the Razorbacks, Steven Hill and Darian Townes are no answer for Tyler Hansbrough. Gary Ervin is no answer for Ty Lawson. There is no one on the Arkansas roster that can matchup with the lightning quick Wayne Ellington. This game should not be close.
Pick: North Carolina 92, Arkansas 77

BJCC Arena
Birmingham, AL
#6 Oklahoma Sooners (23-11) vs.
#3 Louisville Cardinals (25-8)
It will be a good game inside as a lot of big bodies will bang down low in a contest featuring two teams that had easy times with overmatched opponents in the first round. Louisville will throw Scott Padgett (who’s finally healthy) and Terrance Williams at the three-headed monster of Longar Longar, Blake Griffin and the newly discovered David Godbold. Apparently, Godbold was a late addition to the lineup in the first round game against St. Joe’s, and completely confused the Hawks who were too busy trying to stop Longar and Griffin.

So both teams are solid inside, but Louisville’s backcourt is much better than Oklahoma’s. Earl Clark, Jerry Smith and Edgar Sosa are going to put up more points than whatever combination the Sooners throw on the court. And while a lot of experts love to point to Oklahoma’s defense, which surrenders only 64 points a game, Louisville’s defense only allows 61. Rick Pitino has thrown a hybrid 2-3 zone into the mix, and it might be the best defensive scheme remaining in the entire tournament. The Cardinals can go from man-to-man to this bizarre zone from possession to possession and can really confuse any offense. It will be a slugfest, but superior guard play and defense will be the difference. Advantage Louisville.
Pick: Louisville 67, Oklahoma 59


Since when did Rick Pitino become a defensive genius?

#7 Butler Bulldogs (30-3) vs.
#2 Tennessee Volunteers (30-4)
For the first time in NCAA history, two teams with 30 wins will meet in the second round of the tournament. You think Bruce Pearl is happy to see Butler as his opponent? Unlikely. And on the other side, Brad Stevens is probably upset that the Bulldogs are a 7-seed after cruising through the Horizon and their mildly-challenging out of conference schedule. So complaining and unhappiness all around.

Butler is the same team that found a way to beat Maryland last year. They win ugly. They only score 68 points a game, but you’ll win a bunch if you hold opponents to only 57 a game on the other end. This is a team that would fit right in with their Big 10 neighbors. That means Butler is never going to be out of a game because their defense will always keep them in it. It also means that Butler will never be able to put a good team away because their offense simply isn’t good enough.

The Volunteers are the complete opposite. They run and gun. They shoot first and worry about the consequences later. They are loose with the ball and they are below average from the free throw line. There is no commitment to defense. When they have bad shooting nights, as they did against American, they are very vulnerable.

I worry about the Volunteers in this one because opponents are often able to exert their pace on the game against the Vols. Tennessee was forced into a slow down game against a much weaker American team. Even though American didn’t win, they gave themselves a chance for about 35 minutes. Comparatively, Georgetown and Texas were able to run away and hide from their 15-seed opponents (Dook, on the other hand, proved they shouldn’t have been a 2 seed at all). Butler will have their way pace wise, but I’m not sure they win. Tennessee had a poor shooting game against American, and I can’t see them having two bad games in a row. Why? Because they didn’t have back-to-back bad games the entire season.
Pick: Tennessee 65, Butler 55

MIDWEST REGION

St. Pete Times Forum
Tampa, FL
#13 Siena Saints (23-10) vs.
#12 Villanova Wildcats (21-12)
So who said that a small MAAC team had no chance beating the Vanderbilt Commodores? I guess I said that. Eesh. Well, Siena dominated from opening tap to closing whistle. Vanderbilt never really made a single run. Granted, the Saints shot the lights out, and playing their second game in less than three days is unlikely to help them keep that shooting percentage up. But they certainly didn’t look like a 13-seed in that game. Still, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once and awhile, and I’m looking for the Saints to come back down to Earth quite a bit. The odds of them beating two BCS teams in three days is slim.
Pick: Villanova 78, Siena 64

RBC Center
Raleigh, NC
#10 Davidson Wildcats (27-6) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (28-5)
This just in: Stephen Curry is pretty good. I went over this in the Gonzaga-Davidson game preview, but I also said that there was no way Curry could single-handedly carry his team to a win in the NCAA tournament against good competition. Turns out I was wrong about that too. Curry’s 40 point performance was even more impressive than Gerry McNamara’s 43-points against BYU in Denver four years ago (a game I was courtside for). Davidson needed every single one of those points, and every time they needed a big shot, they went to Curry. And he hit every big shot he took.

Georgetown put away UMBC pretty easily in the second half after struggling for awhile. But it was amazing to see how well the much smaller Retrievers were rebounding against Georgetown. Plus, Roy Hibbert seemed to be lost on the defensive end guarding much smaller and faster players. Once again, the Hoyas are going against a much smaller, but quicker team. Against smaller teams, and this includes games against smaller Big East teams, the Hoyas seem to forget that they have height advantages and settle for outside shots. That was the case against UMBC until Little Racist the Third woke them up. That is bound to happen when your 7-1 center playes like a 6-5 guard who can’t shoot and can’t move. Georgetown should be able to score inside, but I like Curry to put up another great game. He got better as the game went along, so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Curry scores 32, and the Wildcats get their second stunner in three days.
Pick: Davidson 74, Georgetown 69

SOUTH REGION

Alltel Arena
Little Rock, AR
#8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (23-10) vs.
#1 Memphis Tigers (34-1)
Now we are on Memphis upset alert. If they were able to face Oregon, the Tigers would have dominated them both outside and inside. They get the Bulldogs instead, and they get the more physical of the two teams. To figure out how to beat Memphis, you have to go back to their one loss against Tennessee. They were beat up down low by J.P. Prince and Wayne Chism, and were forced into taking jump shots all game. They never got Robert Dozier or Joey Dorsey into any kind of rhythm. If it wasn’t for Derrick Rose’s shooting that night, the game wouldn’t have been close.

MSU has the bodies down low to do this. Charles Rhodes realized he had a mismatch against Oregon, and exploited it for 34 points in the Bulldogs opening round win. I like teams with big men who aren’t afraid to use them (like Georgetown is). And I really like Mississippi State to give the Tigers a ball game. The Memphis loss is coming soon, I just don’t think it’s coming here. Chris Douglass- Roberts is the x-factor, and the Bulldogs don’t have a player like him on their roster.
Pick: Memphis 81, Mississippi State 75

#7 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (23-10) vs.
#2 Texas Longhorns (29-6)
Of all the 2-seeds for the Hurricanes to face, this is probably the one that is the worst matchup for them. I would have like their chances against Duke, Georgetown or Tennessee. Against Texas, they don’t really have a position advantage anywhere on the court. The Longhorns have the superior backcourt by far. Texas also has enough big men inside, so Miami’s several waves of 6-8 or 6-9 players shouldn’t really faze the Horns at all. I would love to see the Canes spring the upset because it would help me in all of my pools and it would restore a little bit of ACC pride that Clemson and the Dookies left behind after the first weekend. Not going to happen though.
Pick: Texas 85, Miami 67

WEST REGION

St. Pete Times Forum
Tampa, FL
***THE PREDICTOR GAME of the DAY***
#13 San Diego Toreros (22-13) vs.
#12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (28-6)
Poor Tim Brando. Sure the first day was fun for Timmy, with four upsets at the Tampa site. Unfortunately, that leaves Brando with two 12-13 games to call today. Doesn’t exactly make for the best basketball. Oh, the bracket unkind!

Unlike the other 12-13 game, which features a power conference team against a small conference team, these two teams are both on the mid-major level and should provide us with a close game. I watched almost the entire San Diego upset of Connecticut and the second half and overtime of WKU and Drake. Along with the Marquette-Stanford game yesterday, those were the two best games of the tournament to date. Well, Dook losing was up there too. By the way, the last two “Predictor Game of the Day’s” have been overtime games decided by one point. So do yourself a favor and tune into this one.

I was disappointed when I watched the Hilltoppers. I was excited to finally get a chance to watch Courtney Lee, who’s been tearing up the Sun Belt this season. Lee was virtually non-existent in the second half and overtime of their win over Drake. Instead, I was treated to a terrific performance by Tyrone Brazelton, who made every big shot in regulation, and assisted on Ty Rogers’ winning basket at the buzzer in overtime. Brazelton had 33 points and five dimes and carried WKU by himself. Drake knew exactly what he was going to do, and they couldn’t stop him from doing it. Very impressive performance on a big stage.


After Brandon Johnson and Tyrone Brazelton had great games for USD and WKU, two unexpected players hit game-winning shots.

On the flip side, San Diego used more of a team effort to squeak by UConn. Brandon Johnson had a strong outing, similar to his game against Saint Mary’s in the WCC semifinals. And he did it on one good leg. Gyno Pomare, who I kinda made fun of Friday for being such a stiff during the WCC tournament, went off for 22 points and made Haseem Thabeet seem ordinary. The supporting cast of Trumaine Johnson and De’Jon Jackson chipped in crucial points, including Jackson’s last second shot for the win.

I continue to love what I see from the Toreros. Three incredibly fast guards who can all defend. Pomare proved that he’s a big man to be reckoned with. This team has done nothing but win since late February. Brandon Johnson’s health will obviously play a role in this one, but he’s going to start, so I have to assume he’s close to 100%. WKU really got lucky on Rogers’ shot. Drake outplayed them down the stretch, but just missed a couple of key shots in overtime. However, San Diego outplayed UConn in the second half and overtime, and deserved to win that game. Bill Grier, a former Gonzaga assistant, has turned San Diego into a Gonzaga-clone. They play the same style of basketball on both ends of the floor. Now they have something else in common: an win against a much higher seed in the NCAA tournament. How about another upset by the Toreros.
Pick: San Diego 80, Western Kentucky 73