2008 NCAA Tournament: East/West Regional Finals

3-1 yesterday, but the team I really needed to win did not. With Stanford's loss, I'm offically sunk in my pool. That's what happens when you join in with 50 other people who actually know sports. Everyone basically had the same picks. I had a chance if Stanford made the Final Four and UCLA won it all...but it's not to be. I'm now 43-13 overall.

EAST REGION



#3 Louisville Cardinals (27-8) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (35-2)
Charlotte Bobcats Arena - Charlotte, NC
Hard to figure out if both of these teams are as good as they’re playing. I tend to believe Louisville is a bad shooting night away from going down in flames. As I said two days ago, they’re very streaky. Aside from a five minute stretch against Tennessee, they’ve played very well. But their track record indicates that they can’t keep beating teams by 20 points without having at least one bad game wedged in there.

I think Carolina is really as good as they’re playing right now. The first half of the Washington State game proved it to me. The Cougars double and triple teamed Tyler Hansbrough for the entire half. Wazzau completely shut him down, they had the game slowed all the way down, and they were forcing turnovers. It didn’t make a difference. Washington State played as well as they possibly could have in the first half and they still were down 14 at the break. That’s incredible. If you had told Tony Bennett that Hansbrough would have two points at the half, and Carolina would have eight turnovers, he probably would have assumed that his team would at least be within one possession of the Heels. Instead, the game was already over.

Carolina continues to prove they are more than just Hansbrough and Ty Lawson. The forgotten Wayne Ellington contributed 13 points, and Danny Green continued his hot shooting with 15 off the bench. This team can beat you so many ways. They have three legitimate three-point shooters, and a huge force inside. The WSU games showed that if you overcompensate guarding Hansbrough, that Carolina can just pass the ball outside and shoot their way to a win. Plus, Carolina has long been dogged as a team with no or little defense. I know Washington State isn’t exactly 1990 UNLV, but Carolina held them to only 47 points. I don’t care who you are or who you are playing…by the time we get to this point in the season, a 47-point defensive effort is phenomenal in my book.

Earl Clark and David Padgett are solid players. They can do what Aron Baynes and Robbie Cowgill managed to do to Hansbrough on Thursday. They can probably do it for two halves. I don’t think it matters. There’s a reason people keep saying Carolina is the best team in the tournament. It’s because they are. I just wish I had known that earlier last week.
Pick: North Carolina 83, Louisville 70

WEST REGION



#3 Xavier Musketeers (30-6) vs.
#1 UCLA Bruins (34-3)
U.S. Airways Center - Phoenix, AZ
The reason I wish I’d known Carolina was really the best team in the tournament is because the squad I thought earned that moniker hasn’t lived up to it yet. There was a point in their game with Western Kentucky on Thursday, that UCLA appeared on their way out. The Hilltoppers cut a 21-point deficit to three and had just forced Darren Collison to foul out. The Bruins were without their only real point guard, without any momentum and were 6 minutes away from being the victim in the biggest upset in the tourney thus far. WKU did all they could – they wisely pressed a point guard-less UCLA, they didn’t rush possessions, took open shots – but they simply had no physical answer for Kevin Love and Josh Shipp. Few teams do. Love and Shipp rallied the troops and helped the Bruins escape late.

The real question is, why did it take so long to finish off Western Kentucky in the first place? Most of Toppers comeback came with Collison in the game. This is UCLA. This is a team that ran through the Pac-10. Dominated a conference that had three teams make the Sweet 16, and three others had very tough first round draws. And they almost lost to WKU because Tyrone Brazelton had a good game. Really? A team that has three All-American talent players and at least two NBA draft picks on it almost blows a 21-point lead to Western Kentucky. What happened in the last two weeks?

Now they get Xavier. Again, here’s a team that the Bruins either have a size or speed advantage (or both) against at every single position on the court. Xavier possesses a whole lot of talented players. Josh Duncan has had himself a great tournament. Drew Lavender, who must be in his seventh year of eligibility, can still take games over like he did with Oklahoma. The Muskies have quality role players. But this isn’t a team that should be within 15 points of UCLA. At least the UCLA that played in the Pac-10 Tournament.

I like the Bruins in this game because Josh Shipp has finally arrived to the party. The only positive thing (other than a win) that UCLA can take from their last game is the performance of Shipp. After disappearing for most of the Pac-10 tourney and the first two games of the NCAA, Shipp almost single-handedly put the Hilltoppers away late in that game. We all know that Love and Collison are the two best players on UCLA. But Shipp is the most important. Not many teams have players that can guard a 6-7 swingman that is willing and able to drive inside and also shoot the lights out. Shipp needs to be aggressive and needs to exploit the mismatch that he’ll have against C.J. Anderson and B.J. Raymond.

The Bruins also need to establish Love down low. While Love has had a good tournament, he’s had to create a lot of points off second chance rebounds and jump shots. UCLA needs to feed him like Stanford feeds the Lopez twins and UNC feeds Hansbrough. When you have a wide 6-10 power forward, especially against mid-majors like WKU and Xavier, YOU HAVE TO USE HIM INSIDE.

Call it a hunch, but I think Ben Howland had a wakeup call watching his team in the second half against WKU. I think he sees the same things I’m seeing. Too much dribbling around the perimeter offensively has led to way too many turnovers, failed possessions and close games. I bet Howland gets his act together and UCLA pulls out another close one.
Pick: UCLA 76, Xavier 71