2008 NCAA Tournament: Midwest/South Regional Finals

No big suprises last night, so the record goes to a cool 45-13. If I were a betting man today, I would put everything on Kansas. No way the NCAA allows Davidson to spoil a potential Kansas-North Carolina semifinal with Roy Williams facing his old team. Just call that a hunch.

MIDWEST REGION



#10 Davidson Wildcats (29-6) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (34-3)
Ford Field – Detroit, MI

I actually watched the entire UCLA-Xavier game despite the fact it was a blowout from start to finish. And if your wondering why I couldn’t find anything better to do early on a Saturday night (don’t worry, I’m wondering too), it was because I was spellbound listening to another edition of Bill Raftery. I have said many times, that Raft is by far the best color analyst in the business. First of all, the man knows what he’s talking about. Secondly, he delivers his knowledge in a way only he can. To call it unique would be an understatement. I always have the sound up when he’s calling a game, and I’ll basically watch whatever game it is. I always root for a close game because you never know when you’ll get a call like this (Listen to the whole clip…by the way, why Raftery and Gus Johnson don’t pair up more is beyond me). Raftery has fun calling the games, and the enjoyment he has at center court is relayed to the casual viewer. That’s what a color man should do. Dissecting the X’s and O’s is great, but adding excitement to the game is even better. I would love it if he could call my life. I even wondered what it would be like if he were here breaking down this game…

"You know Verne, the Predictor wanted to pull a Karl Malone and mail one today, so like the Four Tops, we’re off to Motown. On parchment Verne, it looks like a M&Mer. Maybe not the case. Davidson isn’t in Kansas anymore, but they’ve pulled a few surprises already and are salivating over the opportunity to do it again. When you talk about Davidson, you gotta talk about the little guy with THE BIG TICKER! Stephen Curry has been incredible Verne. He’s great off the dribble-drive. He can go with the blow-by, takes it to the tin and leaves a little lingerie on the deck as well. And he knows how to finish too…with the kiss, oh, the little SMOOCHER off glass! But Verne, when in doubt, just stroke it…and Stephen strokes it with the best of ‘em. This is a kid who has delivered Davidson from the cathouse to the penthouse, and with a little divine intervention, can do it again. "


Oh Verne, it's a visit from the BIG FELLA!

"But don’t be in a Rush to judgement. Davidson better bring their lunch. The Jayhawks are a team that can make you ask for your Mommy! Start with Brandon Rush, the all-around catalyst for the Kansas attack. He can do it all…might as well let him in the band. His partner in crime in the back is Super Mario. Mario Chalmers is a scrapper…does a lot of things that are unattractive but highly beneficial. Solid defender too. He’ll have the pleasure of guarding Mr. Curry, so when Stephen attacks…Mario better get in front of him and get those puppies set, Verne! And let’s not forget about THE BIGFELLA, Darrell Arthur. A force to be reckoned with inside…isn’t he a large edifice! Plays above the rim. He catches the ball in the post, and knows exactly what to do with it. Oh, send it in BIGFELLA!"

"The matchup to watch will be Curry and Chalmers. A lot of pressure on Mario to step up, fill the lane when Stephen takes it to the tin, and provide the defensive lift for his team. But I’m not sure you can contain the little guy with just one man. In fact Verne, I’d like to see Kansas open up in a 3-2 zone with mantoman principles. Bill Self could throw a wrench into Davidson’s plan. Take the pressure off of Chalmers…let his team carry him."

"Either way Verne, hide the women and children! Should be a good one. Kansas just has to remember to get it to the big fella inside. When the time comes let Brandon rush you off to the Final Four with some major…ONIONS! Look for the swingman to deliver the tear drops that will make Davidson cry. Brandon’s got to bring some early onions, and some second helpings later on. Oh Verne, I hope the Jayhawks like Tex-Mex. SEND IT IN, WITH THE KISS!"
Pick: Kansas 85, Davidson 76

SOUTH REGION



#2 Texas Longhorns (31-6) vs.
#1 Memphis Tigers (36-1)
Reliant Stadium – Houston, TX

Now that I’ve destroyed what little credibility I had, let’ move on. Here it is, the game that should be a red flag to the committee that’s something wrong with placing a team an hour or two away from their campus for a “neutral” game. Hopefully Louisville getting a virtual home game in Lexington last year against Texas A&M and Carolina getting four home games in Raleigh and Charlotte, combined with this odd bit of scheduling will get some changes made. Texas is the #2 seed, the lesser seed of the two, and will wear their burnt orange road uniforms. They won’t be the only ones wearing that color. In fact, most of the 50,000 on hand will be clad in it. So even though Memphis was only four points away from being perfect this season, in the process supposedly earning themselves whatever advantage the pre-arranged sites afford, they’ll have to play a road game just to make it to the Final Four. Doesn’t seem all that fair.

After watching D.J. Augustin play against Stanford, I doubt a team like Memphis can hold down the Horns. Augustin and A.J. Abrams terrorized the overmatched Stanford guards all game long. Despite Brook Lopez dominating the glass and almost single-handedly winning the game for the Cardinal, the Augustin-Abrams combination were too much.

Memphis does have Derrick Rose and Chris Douglass-Roberts. Both are just as quick as Augustin and Abrams, but neither of them play much defense. Against the quick guards of Tennessee, neither of them did much guarding. Tennessee’s guards also did a good job of crashing the boards in that game, and neither Rose or Douglass Roberts seemed intent on boxing any of them out. Second-chance points was the difference in that loss to the Volunteers. Augustin and Abrams may only be 6-feet, but they play much bigger. They love to go inside on drives and they also have qualms about going among the trees and grabbing boards. Again, I think second-chance points are going to be crucial in this game, and the guards of Texas just seem to want it more.

We’ve seen what smaller Texas can do against a team with two big men. They couldn’t stop Brook Lopez, who did whatever, whenever he wanted to. But they were able to contain and frustrate the enigmatic Robin Lopez. They held the lesser twin to six points. If Robin was able to put up similar numbers to Brook, that game probably goes Stanford’s way. The same problem presents itself in the game against Memphis. Robert Dozier is going to bring his “A-game” almost any time he steps onto the court. There is no one on Texas that is big enough and strong enough to stop him. The other forward, Joey Dorsey, isn’t invincible. He is easy to frustrate and easy to get into foul trouble…just like Robin Lopez. If Texas is able to do this, they only have to worry about Dozier and they have a good chance to compete with Memphis inside.

Other than eliminating the Joey Dorsey threat, two other things will be key. Firstly, Texas has become a team that’s nine-deep. This wasn’t the case last year when they stretched to play seven guys and they were known as the Texas Durants. The Horns are now deep and revolve around more than one player. Memphis has suddenly become a team that’s only seven-deep. John Calipari’s rotation, that looked pretty good in February, has suddenly disappeared in the tournament. That depth, especially since this will be both teams’ second game in 48 hours, will be crucial. Advantage Texas.

The second factor, and this was the dark cloud hanging over Memphis all season, is free-throw shooting. When the Tigers are blowing out Michigan State by 30 points, free throw shooting doesn’t make much of a difference. But, when you’re in a close game with guard-oriented Texas, free throw shooting is huge. Like most experts, I’ve been saying all season that free throw shooting would eventually doom the Tigers. They shoot a shade under 60% from the line, which was 339th out of 341 Division 1 teams. Poor shooting almost jumped up to bite them in a second round win over Mississippi State. In the final minute of that game, a 12-point Memphis lead became a 3-point advantage, and the Bulldogs had a last-second three go just a bit long. The Mississippi State game was just a little bit of foreshadowing for this one. Texas pulls this one out late when they hit their free throws and the Tigers don’t.
Pick: Texas 78, Memphis 73


This is actually a free throw attempt. Doesn't look good.