Maryland Basketball: Bid Night

#10/10 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (22-5, 9-5 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (18-10, 7-7 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

Before I, or any of us, start talking and analyzing the bubble situation, let’s go over something real quick. The fact that Maryland, considering the lack of talent as compared to the rest of the ACC, is even in the bubble discussion is astonishing. This was a team that was supposed to be really bad at the beginning of the season and grow slowly as the year progressed. In reality, they regressed in the middle of the season, but have learned how to play as a team down the stretch in games. This was not supposed to be a team challenging for an NCAA spot. This was supposed to be a growing year, so that next season, with the arrival of two legitimate big men, would see not only a NCAA bid but a relatively higher seed and maybe a tournament win or two.

Maryland, with a win tonight, can surpass anyone’s reasonable expectations. If Maryland makes the tournament this year, with the lack of talent, with the loss to Morgan State, with all the controversy surrounding Gary Williams’ relationship with the athletic department, it’s an absolute steal. Just making the tournament would be huge. Who cares where they are seeded? Who cares if they win a game? They’d be playing with house money at that point. The fact that Maryland is at 7-7, with a legit chance to go at least 8-8 in the conference and possibly win an ACC tournament game or two, shows that there is no better game-day coach in the conference than Williams.

Just look at this roster. Greivis Vasquez is a good player, but he’s never going to be mistaken for a candidate for conference player of the year. Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne are good role players. But they are not guys who should be carrying a heavy load of the offense. Adrian Bowie and Cliff Tucker will one day be great ACC players, maybe even as soon as next season. But they aren’t there yet. Dino Gregory and Dave Neal, two players who would not start or would not play a whole lot on any of the other 11 ACC teams are major contributors either on offense or defense. This team shouldn’t be 7-7. This team should be like last year’s Virginia team with Sean Singletary and a bunch of role players. They should be 4-10. The Terps should not have wins over Michigan State, Michigan, Virginia Tech and UNC. They should not be within striking distance of an NCAA tournament bid. But they are. Almost all credit has to go to Williams for doing the best with what he has.

So now it is March, and now we can all start looking at the bubble. The case can be made for Maryland, as of right now, to be in the field of 65. The case against can also be made. There are a lot of average basketball teams right now. Some have better RPI’s and strengths of schedule. Others have done better on the road. Others have done better against Top 25 competition. If you can easily separate teams like Providence, San Diego State, Minnesota, Florida, Arizona, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati and Kansas State, then you are a genius and should be on the selection committee. Because chances are, the guys on the committee have no idea either.

Maryland owns two wins against Top 10 competition. Their RPI is hovering right around 50, which is usually the beginning of the cutoff for at large bids. Their SOS is very respectable in the high-20’s. The road record of 2-5 is disconcerting. However, the Terps have won four of their last six and have been playing well recently, which the committee loves. And you’d have to figure an 8-8 conference record in the best conference in the country is worth something.

As far as scenarios go, from what I’ve read, Maryland is nearly a lock if they win this game tonight. A win over Wake Forest gives the Terps three victories over Top 10 teams. That is likely something that no other bubble team will have. And two of those wins will have come late in the season. Also, their wins against fellow bubble teams Michigan, Virginia Tech and Miami will sure help. If they lose, they’ll have to beat Virginia this weekend and get at least one in the ACC Tournament. That isn’t the toughest task in the world until you consider that Maryland hasn’t a lot of luck in the ACC Tournament the past few seasons.

After consecutive home games against UNC and Duke, Maryland fans have looked at this Wake game as a “break” in the schedule. I’m not sure what possesses people to think like that. Wake is as good, if not better than Duke. They have the talent to run with UNC on any given night. Maryland could easily lose this game by 30 points. However, Wake has been really schizophrenic since entering conference play undefeated. Four of Wake’s five conference losses have been against teams in the bottom half of the conference. That includes giving Georgia Tech their one conference win so far. In fact, Wake’s record against the top half of the conference is 6-1, which is much better than the 3-4 record against the bottom half. What to make of this? I’m not sure. The Deacs are a young team that is prone to mental lapses against inferior competition…something Maryland fans should know all about. Most of those losses have come on the road, so it’s obvious that some of their young players aren’t comfortable playing away from The Joel. That doesn’t explain why they were able to beat Clemson at Littlejohn or be the first team in three seasons to win at BYU’s Marriot Center. But youth does explain some of their problems.

We are also learning that Wake may not be as deep or as balanced as we thought they were in January. Conference player of the year candidate Jeff Teague has been playing out of his mind all season. He’s averaging nearly 20 points and four assists per game. James Johnson has contributed 14 a night. Freshman sensation and one-and-done candidate Al-Farouq Aminu has played well (maybe not as well as expected) with 12 points and eight boards a game. These three form a consistent, dangerous and versatile scoring threat.

After those players, the contributions drop off. Chas McFarland is still an unpolished 7-footer. Ishmael Smith has flashes, but can get very careless with the ball. L.D. Williams and Harvey Hale continue to be good players that haven’t taken “the next step”. The talent his on the roster. Hale is the only senior that sees playing time. Even if Wake loses Aminu to the NBA, this could still be the best team in the country come next season. They need one more year of experience and they need someone other than the three-headed monster to improve.

The Deacons throw three guys on the court who are 6-10 or bigger. Maryland is going to have a world of trouble competing inside in the game. Plus, Wake’s guards are oversized and quick. One of them should have success guarding, or at least limiting, Vasquez’s inside cuts. I don’t see the Terps winning because Wake matches up way to well. The Terps don’t have enough inside and they don’t play enough defense to stop all of the Deacons’ scoring threats. Who matches up with the 6-8 Aminu on the Terps roster? The answer is no one. It wouldn’t shock me if Maryland squeaks one out, but I don’t expect it to happen.

Wake Forest 81
Maryland 75

ACC Picks:
Clemson 87, Virginia 72
Duke 78, Florida State 74
Boston College 65, NC State 60
North Carolina 85, Virginia Tech 76
Miami 70, Georgia Tech 59