The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 3/2/09

The first Top 25 of March:

1. North Carolina (25-3), LW-1: They managed not to lose their one game against pitiful Georgia Tech.
2. Connecticut (27-2), LW-4: Good week for the Huskies with two quality wins against Marquette and Notre Dame.
3. Oklahoma (26-3), LW-2: Can’t punish the Sooners too much since 67% of their losses have occurred without Blake Griffin in the lineup. Losing at Kansas was not that shocking.
4. Pittsburgh (26-3), LW-3: Slightly more shocking was the Panthers loss at Providence. A good three-point shooting team can beat Pitt on any given night.
5. Memphis (26-3), LW-5: Memphis stalls here despite a solid win at a game UAB squad. I don’t think they’ll climb much higher unless two of the teams ahead of them start to slide.
6. Louisville (23-5), LW-6: Managed not to lose to Georgetown (unlike another Big East team) and held on against Marquette. Enough to keep them in the Big East race and enough to keep them at #6.
7. Wake Forest (22-5), LW-9: The Deacons decide not to fool around this week and easily beat NC State and Virginia. A much tough week is ahead for Wake with Maryland and Clemson on the schedule.
8. Kansas (24-5), LW-11: We welcome Kansas to the Top 10 this week. Their win over Oklahoma is good (although with a Griffin-sized asterisk), but their blowout of Mizzou was the real eye-catcher.
9. Duke (24-5), LW-12: I’ll hand it to the Dookies this week. They won at two very tough venues against two desperate teams.
10. Michigan State (23-5), LW-15: I dropped MSU way too far in the rankings last week. This feels correct for the best team in a mediocre conference. Win at Illinois was tough and hard fought.
11. Villanova (23-6), LW-7: Loss to Georgetown was really inexcusable. The Hoyas were teetering on the brink of collapse and the Wildcats couldn’t give them one last shove.
12. Missouri (14-5), LW-8: Mizzou had a chance to prove they were for real. Then they went to Lawrence and laid an egg. A 25-point loss egg. Hard to overlook that one.
13. Gonzaga (23-5), LW-16: The Zags make the jump up with two road wins at Santa Clara and San Diego. It also helps that several teams above them lost two games in a row.
14. LSU (25-4), LW-18: The Bayou Bengals had their toughest week in a long time and passed with flying colors. Two wins against SEC bubble teams Florida and Kentucky shows the Tigers may have some bite this month.
15. Clemson (22-6), LW-10: I understand the loss at FSU, but the loss at home to Virginia Tech should never have happened. Oliver Purnell’s team appears to once again be headed for a late-season swoon.
16. Washington (22-7), LW-20: Finally, a spot for a Pac-10 team. The Huskies have emerged from the Western ether to claim top spot in the BCS conference. Now they have a weird week with Lehigh, Seattle U. and Washington State on the schedule.
17. UCLA (22-7), LW-21: The Bruins are starting to save their season at the right time. A good win in Berkeley in a prime time game followed a good win at Maples Pavilion. All they have to do is sweep the Oregon schools at home for a strong finish.
18. Xavier (23-5), LW-23: A win at the Palestra (which I finally had the opportunity to visit a couple of weeks ago) against St. Joe’s keeps the Muskies in the rankings and on top of the A-10
19. Florida State (22-7), LW-15: The win against Clemson solidified them as a Top 5 team in the ACC. The loss to Boston College shows they aren’t ready to be put in the Top 4.
20. Marquette (23-6), LW-13: No team had a worse week than the Eagles. Not only did they lose to UConn and Louisville, they lost Dominic James to injury for the rest of the season.
21. BYU (22-6), LW-NR: I put the Stormin’ Mormons here because they are a team that really intrigues me. They are probably a few spots too high, but after struggling in midseason, they’ve come on strong as of late in the brutal Mountain West.
22. Purdue (22-7), LW-19: I was excited about this team in November. The more I see them, the more it looks like they’ll be a first round NCAA exit
23. Arizona State (21-7), LW-14: Another team that is headed in the wrong direction and could be one and done in a couple of weeks. But that’s what Little Herby was good at during his time at NC State. He had his players home by the end of the first weekend of the tournament.
24. Creighton (25-6), LW-NR: Winners of 10-straight, the Blue Jays finally pulled to the top of the standings in the Missouri Valley. They still need to win their tournament to feel safe.
25. Butler (25-4), LW-NR: As usual, I don’t trust the Bulldogs, who win most of their games with smoke and mirrors. They’re in the rankings because too many borderline teams lost.

Next Five: Utah, Illinois, Utah State, South Carolina, Syracuse


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (7): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (5): Arizona, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (4): Florida, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West (3): BYU, UNLV, Utah

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Buffalo
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
Big West: Cal State - Northridge
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: North Dakota State

Notes: Kentucky, Penn State, Illinois State and San Diego State are among the departed. Replacing them is Tennessee, Ohio State, Maryland and Oklahoma State. And no, that wasn’t a homer pick. Virginia Tech, Kentucky and New Mexico are very much banging on the door. Arizona and Minnesota continue to try to play themselves out.


THE BRACKETS

BOSTON REGION
Philadelphia
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Morgan State
(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) Creighton
Boise
(4) Missouri vs. (13) Western Kentucky
(5) Florida State vs. (12) Arizona
Philadelphia
(3) Duke vs. (14) American
(6) BYU vs. (11) Minnesota
Kansas City
(7) West Virginia vs. (10) Tennessee
(2) Memphis vs. (15) North Dakota State

PHOENIX REGION
Kansas City
(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) Stephen F. Austin
(8) Boston College vs. (9) Ohio State
Boise
(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Siena
(5) Marquette vs. (12) Dayton
Portland
(3) Washington vs. (14) Weber State
(6) Purdue vs. (11) Texas A&M
Greensboro
(7) South Carolina vs. (10) Utah State
(2) Wake Forest vs. (15) Robert Morris

MEMPHIS REGION
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Jacksonville
(8) Syracuse vs. (9) Davidson
Portland
(4) LSU vs. (13) VCU
(5) UCLA vs. (12) Kansas State
Minneapolis
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Vermont
(6) Butler vs. (11) Maryland
Dayton
(7) Utah vs. (10) Oklahoma State
(2) Louisville vs. (15) Tennessee-Martin

INDIANAPOLIS REGION
Dayton
(1) Pittsburgh vs. (16) Alabama State/Radford
(8) Texas vs. (9) California
Miami
(4) Clemson vs. (13) Buffalo
(5) Xavier vs. (12) Florida
Miami
(3) Villanova vs. (14) Cornell
(6) Arizona State vs. (11) UNLV
Minneapolis
(7) Illinois vs. (10) St. Mary’s
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Cal State – Northridge