Maryland Basketball: Good Night, Good Luck and Good Riddance

Miami Hurricanes (15-12, 7-7 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (16-11, 6-8 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

Well, it’s been four years since the current class of seniors arrived on campus. Contrary to popular belief, this was not the “Championship Class”. That refers to the first class that was signed after the Terps won the whole thing in 2002. Most of this year’s class signed before the Terps won the tournament. So the D.J. Strawberry/Mike Jones/Ekene Ibekwe class is the real championship class. Regardless, anyway you analyze it, the current crop of seniors who are graduating (or not graduating) have been a bust. Other than the ACC Championship they secured in 2004, the entire four-man class, five if you count Sterling Ledbetter, has been a nightmare. Instead of being the class that cemented Maryland as a national power, this was the class that cost the Terps a shot at becoming one of college basketball’s most dominate programs.

The best player of the group was John Gilchrist. For the second half of the 2004 season, Gilchrist played better than anyone in the country. He and Jamar Smith willed Maryland to their ACC Championship that year, going through the conference’s best three teams in order to capture it. Coming back for his junior season, Gilchrist had the potential to be the ACC, in not national, player of the year. But in the offseason, Gilchrist flirted with the chance to go pro. In fact, at one point he told Nik Caner-Medley that he was going to enter the NBA draft. By doing this, Gilchrist was in essence, passing the leadership torch to his fellow classman. No one is quite sure if Gary new about the conversation that John and Nik had, but Gary seemed to agree that Caner-Medley would be the team leader for the 2004-05 season with Gilchrist in the NBA. Suddenly, Gilchrist decided that the NBA wasn’t for him, and returned to the team as if nothing had happened. Except Gilchrist returned with the idea that the 04-05 season was nothing more than a stage to showcase his talents to the NBA for next year’s draft.

This was the beginning of the end. Gary could sense John’s newfound attitude immediately. Gary treated him poorly in workouts and practices in October. Nik was upset. According to people I knew around the team at the time, Gilchrist and Nik even got into a fight after practice one day, with Nik acting like a seven-year-old whose parents promised him a PS2 and didn’t get one for him. Nik actually said, and I can just imagine him saying it in a high-pitched whiny voice, “You said this was my team. You can’t just come back here. This was going to be my year.” Apparently, Nik was happy playing second fiddle to the Gilchrist Show in 2004, but wanted to help his own draft status by being the team’s main man in 2005. The team quickly divided into a Gilchrist Camp and a Caner-Medley Camp.

The season went fine for the first two months. Then Gilchrist started hot-dogging practices. He also started missing assignments and exams. The season started to unravel during the team’s four day road trip in early January to play North Carolina and Wake Forest. UNC and Wake, for those who don’t remember, were both in the top 5 at the time. UNC blew Maryland out of the Dean Dome in Gary’s worst ACC loss ever. Tensions were high in the Maryland locker room after the game. Again, John and Nik got into a verbal argument. Nik decided he had enough. He blamed Gilchrist’s selfishness for the loss. He ratted out Gilchrist missing assignments to Gary. Gilchrist did not start in the blowout loss to Wake. In fact, he hardly played at all. Officially, everyone was told it was because of Gilchrist’s wrist injury. But, when I arrived with my WMUC crew to broadcast the game at the Joel, we were told before the game by a friend on the Maryland staff that Gilchrist was being benched because of missed assignments. I asked if there was a chance Gilchrist would flunk out (aka: “McCray out”). I was told that there wasn’t. So I asked how Gary knew that Gilchrist was missing assignments. The man looked to the court, where the players were warming up and said “Figure it out.” He was looking right at Caner-Medley.

Gilchrist obviously had a bad relationship with Caner-Medley and Gary. But when none of his teammates backed him up in Winston-Salem, he figured out that he was all alone on the team. Gilchrist, who had a history of depression, sank into a major funk. He was no longer loved or even respected by his teammates. His coach was riding him hard because of his attitude. And after two ugly blowout road losses, and one at home to NC State, the fans who fell in love with the team the year before during March, were starting to turn. Gilchrist was stuck on his own island, and pride and depression kept him from jumping in a lifeboat and getting back to civilization. Instead, as the season continued, he sank further and further back into the jungle of his mind. Towards the end of 2005, Gilchrist, whose mind had given up on the season a long time ago, finally had his body quit on him too. Beaten and bruised both mentally and physically, Gilchrist watched from the bench as what used to be his team collapsed at the end of the year.


Hard to believe that he was the ACC's best player only two years ago.

Maryland’s season perhaps would have been fine if the team didn’t abandon Caner-Medley as well. The two opposing camps in the locker room soon became five or six different fractions. Caner-Medley was also left alone. McCray and Travis Garrison had their own click. This click, according to many students I know, started using drugs, mostly marijuana, almost daily. Even before games. Ibekwe, Ledbetter and Will Bowers were another group. This was the “bar group”, despite none of the players being old enough to drink. Mike Jones was an odd-man out. James Gist was hazed as “the rookie”, and felt like an outsider most of the time. Strawberry, perhaps wisely given his father’s history, stayed away from most of these groups as well. And nobody liked Mike Grinnon. A team that was so unified the previous season had hit rock bottom. The season would soon follow suit.

So Gilchrist watched as his team fell apart. We only got to see his talent for 2 ½ years in College Park.

Caner-Medley, who has been playing better during the last few weeks, has been a major disappointment. It appeared that he had the most room to excel after his freshman season. Of the entire class, no one showed more promise their first year. Nik injured his ankle in the NCAA tournament game against Michigan State, and never seemed to be the same player after that. He had a tendency to disappear during big games. At times he was too predictable on the court. Other times, he was too passive. He also got into an embarrassing situation after the 2004 season back home in Portland. This is a well publicized event now. Most know it as the time that Caner-Medley went to a Portland bar, got into a drunken altercation, and in the process of being thrown out, screamed “I’m from Maryland and no one can beat me!” This, sadly, will probably be his most lasting moment at the university.

We don’t need to go over Chris McCray again. Perhaps the most consistent member of the four-man class, McCray couldn’t keep his grades above water. This wasn’t the administration’s fault. It wasn’t Gary’s fault. It was McCray’s and McCray’s alone. Before this season started, McCray was also arrested outside a College Park bar, for among other things, resisting arrest and running away from police. On the court, McCray was always good, but never great. He was afraid to take open shots and take control of a team that desperately needed his leadership.

McCray was present at Cornerstone the night that Travis Garrison decided to feel up a woman against her will (again, this case is still pending and Garrison has not been found guilty of anything…innocent until proven guilty if my memory serves me right). Unlike McCray and Caner-Medley, who both showed flashes of brilliance, Garrison was the ultimate bust. He was the class’ lone McDonald’s All-American coming into Maryland. He never played like it. Garrison, despite being 6’9” and having a wide body, never learned how to play inside with his back to the basket. He never learned how to rebound aggressively. This was his ultimate undoing. Garrison’s fade-a-way from 10 feet out was the only shot he could hit consistently. Of all the players, Garrison’s failure disappointed me the most. Over his first two seasons, my friends will be the first to tell you that I was a big Garrison supporter, even when everyone else was ready to label him a letdown. Needless to say, during last season, I saw the err in my ways. Garrison never had the work ethic, the commitment, or the nerve to play inside like a dominant forward. I kept waiting for him to realize his potential, and he never did. He threw away his talents with a lifestyle of drugs, womanizing and laziness. I’m not criticizing his lifestyle, because most students live similar lives while attending college. But most of them aren’t 6’9” with the chance to play D-1 basketball. I’m criticizing his choice. I’m criticizing his decision to represent the university so poorly.


Travis Garrison and Chris McCray were best friends on and off the court. And, I'm sure not a coincidence, neither one excelled on or off the court.

Ledbetter also is a senior, but he was a JUCO transfer. I don’t really count him. For anything. Why he still sees any playing time, even with the loss of McCray, is beyond me. He came in the games against FSU and UNC and suddenly everything went down the drain.

So that’s the class that once looked so promising. In two years, off-court incidents and on-court meltdowns affected all four players and the Maryland program. The class that was supposed to signal Maryland’s arrival as a power program had the exact opposite result. Just watch the senior night festivities. Only two of the four players will be in uniform. Only one, Caner-Medley, will have earned the start (Garrison will start because of senior night tradition). The Gilchrist/McCray/Garrison/Caner-Medley class will have one final legacy. They will serve as a warning to all future national champions that a program’s demise can come at any time. Even immediately after a program’s greatest achievement.

Maryland 81
Miami 77

Elsewhere around the ACC…

After missing most of the weekend’s games, my overall record during the week was 6-1. This continues to improve my record to an impressive 48-22.

Tuesday
Wake Forest at Boston College
With another lackluster opponent in town, BC will once again play down to the level of their competition. I don’t think we’ll see the upset by Wake, but this isn’t senor night at Chestnut Hill. That comes this weekend. So who knows if the Eagles, with a NCAA bid already locked up, will have any motivation in this one.
Pick: Boston College 77, Wake Forest 65

Wednesday
Clemson at Virginia Tech
With both teams playing out the string, look for the Hokies to win their final home game of the season.
Pick: Virginia Tech 68, Clemson 59

Duke at Florida State
This will be an interesting week for Duke. They should get two more wins and finish 16-0 in conference. But they’re playing UNC this weekend, and playing in Tallahassee, a place where they have been upset several times the past few years. FSU is desperate for a quality win after a bad loss to the Hokies this weekend. Plus, the Seminoles should have won the first meeting in Durham. Only a couple of off-balanced three-pointers from Backne and some very questionable officiating saved Duke. Finally, with their senior night game against UNC on the horizon, this is the ultimate trap game for Duke. I’ll pick it, what do I have to lose.
Pick: Florida State 83, Duke 80

Virginia at North Carolina
The two ACC coach of the year candidates match-up in Chapel Hill. Will this be Tyler Hansbrough’s final game at the Dome? I think it will. With a talented class coming in next year for UNC, Tyler will no longer be the main scorer in UNC’s offense. Also, if he waits another year to make the jump to the NBA, he’ll have to deal with Greg Oden and other talented big men. His draft status isn’t going to be any higher then after this season.
Pick: North Carolina 80, Virginia 71

The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/27/06

It’s almost March. The Top 25, at least close to the top, stays basically the same. All those who said I was crazy for having Florida ranked 15th, where are you now? In fact I was crazy…for having them so high. I’ll remedy that situation this week.

1. Connecticut (25-2), LW-1: Huskies pick up another quality win and continue to remain in the top spot here.
2. Duke (27-1), LW-2: Just Jumpers has had a series of bad games lately. Here comes another March swoon for Backne, right on cue.
3. Memphis (26-2), LW-4: The Tigers actually have two tough games this week, at UAB and at home against Houston.
4. Texas (24-4), LW-6: Their 24-point win over Kansas could have been by even more.
5. Villanova (22-3), LW-3: Villanova is a “gimmick” team. Gimmick teams don’t win in crunch time.
6. Gonzaga (24-3), LW-5: The Fightin’ Mustaches roll on in the horrible WCC.
7. Ohio State (21-4), LW-7: I’ve had OSU in this spot for three weeks. It seems the media and the coaches finally caught on to my wisdom.
8. George Washington (24-1), LW-8: Conveniently, the Colonials find themselves in the “GW Spot” for another week.
9. Illinois (23-5), LW-9: Despite loss at Michigan, I’ll give the Illini another week in the Top 10 before moving them down.
10. Tennessee (21-4), LW-12: Two things get the Vols this high. One, they won on the road in Gainesville. Two, there isn’t a better team to put here.
11. North Carolina (21-6), LW-14: This team keeps looking better and better. I’m not focusing on the beating they put on Maryland, but more on the beating they put on the Wolfpack in Raleigh.
12. Washington (22-5), LW-13: Looked really good in a big game last night. If anyone missed it (and I’m guessing most of you did), the Huskies simply dominated a good California team
13. Pittsburgh (21-4), LW-10: Played their traditional brand of ugly basketball in a sloppy win over Providence.
14. Boston College (22-6), LW-11: Road loss to Virginia not all that surprising. BC still lacks a capable and consistent third scorer.
15. Oklahoma (19-6), LW-18: Three one-point victories in a row are not helping my confidence in my darkhorse Final Four pick.
16. UCLA (22-6), LW-21: Nothing impressive over the last seven days…the Bruins just took care of business against the Oregon schools.
17. Kansas (20-7), LW-17: Looked mighty ugly in the blowout. Just remember, it was on the road against Texas. The Jayhawks will probably win their last two and earn a 2 or 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament.
18. Florida (22-6), LW-15: There, finally. Florida is now properly ranked. I said weeks ago that this was about to fall on its face. As usual, the Gators came through.
19. LSU (20-7), LW-NR: Only behind UF because of earlier loss to the Gators. The Tigers are still the better team.
20. Iowa (20-8), LW-19: Despite loss to Illinois, the Hawkeyes continue to stay in the top third of the Big 10. They must beat Penn State and Wisconsin this week.
21. West Virginia (19-8), LW-20: The ‘Queers continue their fall. An ugly loss to Syracuse was followed by an uglier win against Louisville. This team doesn’t look like they can make it past the first weekend in the tournament.
22. Georgetown (19-7), LW-23: After a slump, the Hoyas recovered with two wins against mediocre opponents
23. Marquette (19-8), LW-NR: I see the ESPN poll includes the Badgers this week. They have the wrong team from Wisconsin in their rankings.
24. Nevada (22-5), LW-NR: Looked great from start to finish at Utah State, the only other decent team in the WAC. Nine straight wins, including the remarkable win over the Aggies, gets Nevada into the Top 25.
25. NC State (21-7), LW-17: I don’t care who the two losses came against; you lose twice in a week at home you are going to fall. NC State finds themselves behind the “other” Wolfpack.

Dropped out: Michigan State, George Mason, Northern Iowa
Next Five In: Arkansas, Michigan State, UAB, Texas A&M, California

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding this week. As usual, the conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conference. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. This week, in a departure from last week, I actually picked who I think would win those conferences. The rest of the conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (4): Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, NC State
Big East (8): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big 10 (6): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac 10 (4): Arizona, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee,

Notes: Florida State’s loss to Virginia was very costly. They are out. Also out is Alabama, despite their win against Florida. If you look at the Crimson Tide’s overall resume, not just the RPI and one recent game, it’s not very good. Arkansas, who beat the Tide this week, slides into their place. Kentucky stays in this week. They have two games against ranked opponents this week, and if they win just one of them and a first round SEC tourney game, they’re in easily. Seton Hall continues to remain on the outside looking in. As a result of FSU dropping out, I put Arizona in. And trust me, unless the Aggies screw it up, we should see A&M in the tournament as well. I think we'll see the Aggies net a big win over Texas this week to end all doubts.

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (1): George Washington
Conference USA (3): Memphis, UAB, UTEP
Mountain West (3): Air Force, BYU, San Diego State

Notes: UTEP’s loss to Memphis hurt their record, but helped their RPI. Charlotte could be considered if they make a run in the A-10 Tournament. The Stormin’ Mormons (BYU) get a bid this week because of Utah State’s recent failing in the WAC (check further below).

MID-MAJOR
Colonial Athletic (2): George Mason, UNC-Wilmington
Horizon (1): Milwaukee-Wisconsin
MAAC (1): Manhattan
Mid-American (1): Kent State
Missouri Valley (4): Creighton, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (1): Gonzaga
Western Athletic (1): Nevada

Notes: First of all, I must make a correction from last week. The MAAC should have been in the mid-major category. Not only does the MAAC move up, but also, Manhattan replaces Iona as the conference winner in my brackets. Kent State replaces Akron as the MAC representative this week. I continue to have my doubts about Southern Illinois’ credentials, so I leave them out. However, SIU is ahead of Northern Iowa in the Valley standings, so maybe both could be left out. Utah State’s loss to Nevada and two-point win against dreadful Boise State leaves the WAC with only one team. Southern Alabama continues to push Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt, but will have to win the conference tournament.

SMALL
America East: Albany
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Pacific
Ivy: Pennsylvania
Mid-Continent: IUPUI
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast Conference: Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Southern U.

Notes: Again, last week I just went with the conference leaders. This week I make a few corrections. I think Montana will win the Big Sky and Sam Houston State will win the Southland, despite both teams currently sitting in second place. Davidson should win the Southern conference even though they are currently third.

Oops!

Yeah, I know. I missed all the ACC games yesterday. I was trying to do something different. I was actually going to write about the Redskins and the salary cap situation. I had the post all ready to go. Then I figured that I should wait until the end of the week to see what kind of moves the Skins make to get under the cap and if the NFL's CBA actually gets done. Plus, I was busy yesterday running errands and actually picking up some overtime at the old job. So nothing got done. My fault.

It appears that most owners are trying to screw the Redskins this season by not extending the CBA and forcing the Skins to cut a lot of salary (With a new CBA, the Skins could restructure contracts until the cows come home to get under the cap. Without a new CBA, restructuring contracts would only help to a point. It's called the "30% Rule". It's very complicated and I won't deal with it here.). However, the joke will be on them. After 2006, there will be no salary cap and the NFL will degenerate into a financial system that is similar to Major League Baseball's. The richest teams will monopolize all the talent. Guess which team is worth the most money and guess which team will spend the most. If you guessed that team in Landover, you're right. So while the NFL owners continue to try and mess with Dan Snyder this season, he'll have the last laugh soon enough. It would be in most owner's best interest to get this CBA thing done now.

On a positive note, I'm hearing that most of the CBA's tough issues have been resolved this weekend, and that only small differences are stopping the deal from being done. Hopefully the final deal will be announced Tuesday or Wednesday. Personally, I hope the NFL gets it done. As a Redskins fan, Washington stands to benefit the most in 2007 and beyond if the new CBA isn't approved. Without a cap, the Redskins would become the Yankees of the NFL. As much as I would enjoy having the Redskins be the favorites almost every season, it's simply not good for the game (as any baseball fan outside the dump known as NYC will tell you). The NFL needs competitive balance, or only a handfull of teams are going to have a chance at winning. Anyway, more on the Skins, the salary cap and hopefully the new CBA by next weekend.

Quick Pick: Maryland is done. It's not like I've stopped rooting or stopped watching them, like some "fans". But from an objective standpoint, the team has simply packed it in. And they don't play all that well in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina 86
Maryland 71

Maryland Basketball: Tournament Chop

Maryland Terrapins (16-9, 6-6 ACC) at
Florida State Seminoles (16-7, 6-6 ACC)
Tallahassee-Leon County Civic Center – Tallahassee, FL

I’ve got a confession to make. I’m actually watching quite a bit of the Olympics. I know, half of these events shouldn’t be sports and the other half should be outlawed because you have to have an IQ of 60 to allow yourself to go down an icy track on a tiny sled at over 80 miles per hour. Plus, there’s way too much spandex. Especially in the men’s events. But I love the ski jumping. I could watch that all day. First, it’s a sport that hasn’t been taken over, or even attempted, by Americans, so there’s actually a chance to see some competition. Second, these guys are falling some 300 feet vertically and however many meters horizontally. That’s insane. If you go off that jump too high, or the wind catches your skies at the wrong time, you’re going to be tumbling back to Earth at a velocity and an angle that would shatter both legs and most likely your spinal cord. As much as I want to see these guys stick the landings and all, there is always a chance to see some major wipeouts. I always get suckered into watching the high-speed events because there is always the possibility someone is going to get seriously hurt. I’m sitting there watching and saying to myself “Alright, I’m going to watch this guy from Switzerland go careening off the mountain, then I’m gonna go check out whatever college game is on ESPN.” Before I know it, I’m in a trance and I’ve watched two hours of sports that I know nothing about. Finally, NBC will rescue me by showing some sort of ice skating event and I’m able to wake up and change the channel.

Oh, that’s not why you came here, is it? I guess you don’t want to hear my inane ramblings on why I felt sorry for Lindsey Jacobellis because she’s kinda hot but I didn’t feel bad for the chubby Swede who wiped out because she is a person who shouldn’t be allowed to wear body tight suits. Ok, I dig. I’ll get to the basketball. I’ll do your dance. Let me just say, it’s your loss. I had a ton of material analyzing the men’s biathlon, but I guess you’ll just miss out on that.

One of the reasons I hate, and many ACC old-timers hate this 12-team conference is the unbalanced schedule. Case in point, Maryland’s game this week with Florida State. This will be the first meeting between the two teams, and it’s almost March. I can’t stand this. I’m actually starting to think that a round-robin schedule of 22 conference games is a good idea. Maryland shouldn’t be facing FSU for the first time this late in the season. If the ACC insists on this half-baked schedule, at least force all the teams to play against each other once before facing other teams for a second time. This is what the ACC used to do. Maryland never faced Wake Forest twice in January, only to play Virginia twice in the last two weeks of the season. Have every team play once, and then start the home-and-homes. And while we’re at it, let’s get rid of this “two guaranteed rival system.” It’s the ACC’s way of keeping some resemblance of tradition. In my opinion, any tradition the ACC had left went out the window the day Miami and Virginia Tech were let into the conference. So get rid of all the rivalry games, because too many teams are being put at disadvantages. That includes the guaranteed UNC-Duke home-and-home. Why should UNC be forced to play Duke and NC State twice a year when Florida State gets to play Miami and Georgia Tech? Have all the home-and-homes on the rotating basis. If that means that Duke and UNC don’t play each other twice a season, then that’s too bad. Unless you play a 22 game conference schedule, rotating all the home-and-homes is the only fair way for all 12 teams.

For Maryland, this game is basically their season. Their win over Tech was a disgrace. They won, which was much less embarrassing than losing to the worst ACC team this season. But they won by three, at home, in overtime. Not impressive. Florida State on the other hand, has a chance to pick up a quality home win and start the process of solidifying a tournament bid. Right now, only five ACC teams are going to qualify. After the three triangle teams and Boston College, Florida State is the only program with a decent overall and conference record. Miami has played a tough schedule, but they’re already saddled by double-digit losses. And they’re going to lose at least two more before the selection committee convenes. Virginia’s RPI is way too low. Clemson has faded after a strong start. The only two teams left competing for that final bid will square off at the Civic Center. This is going to be a tournament elimination game.

FSU suffers from a problem that few ACC teams have had the past 30 years. They are actually underexposed. One of the benefits from playing in a power conference is the overwhelming media coverage. But FSU hasn’t played any nationally televised games on ABC or CBS. They’ve only been on ESPN a couple of times. ESPN thinks so little about the Seminoles that they banished their ACC/Big 10 game to ESPN U. Other than a few games on the Jefferson Pilot networks, I haven’t had the opportunity to see many State games this season. And if I, living in the middle of ACC country haven’t seen many FSU games, then the rest of the country sure hasn’t either. So FSU does have that working against them.

The thing is, FSU really is a decent team this season. Al Thornton is the man the offense revolves around. Thornton is averaging 16 points and is shooting 54% from the field. Those numbers are even better in conference play. Alexander Johnson and Jason Rich have been nice role players with Thornton. The Noles would be much better if Isaiah Swann ever reached his potential. He continues to underachieve this season with barely 8 points a game. One player who will have a big game against Maryland will be Todd Galloway. Usually Galloway scores 8 points a game, but he shoots 45.5% from beyond the arc. Because Maryland can’t cover anyone more than 10 feet away from the basket, look for Galloway to at least double his season output.

If the ACC was as good as it usually is, FSU would basically have a tournament bid already wrapped up (of course, if the ACC was as good as it usually is, FSU would probably be 3-9 in conference play). But the low RPI number from playing in a weakened conference, and the lack of national attention is going to come back and hurt the Noles if they can’t win on Wednesday. This is a chance to impress the D.C. area media. This is a chance to beat a “big name” school. And Florida State has always given Maryland fits in Tallahassee. I think FSU finally starts getting the attention they deserve after a win here and win at Virginia Tech this weekend. Maryland fans should start booking train tickets to New York City.

Florida State 79
Maryland 72

Elsewhere in the ACC…

Another 4-1 weekend continues to improve the record, which now sits at 42-21.

Tuesday
Boston College at Virginia
By losing to FSU this weekend, Virginia lost any hope of being discussed by the selection committee. Don’t be surprised, however, if the Hoos managed to eek out a home win against BC, who continues to play with their opponents instead of putting them away.
Pick: Boston College 78, Virginia 75

Wednesday
Duke at Georgia Tech
Not enough points in a Bees uniform to hang with the Dookies
Pick: Duke 84, Georgia Tech 67

Virginia Tech at Miami
Again, I don’t like picking Big East games. Miami will probably make one last stab at a NCAA birth before quietly submitting to the NIT.
Pick: Miami 80, Virginia Tech 70

North Carolina at NC State
If Herb can’t win against Georgia Tech, I would expect Roy Williams to coach circles around His Baldness…even in Raleigh.
Pick: North Carolina 71, NC State 66

Clemson at Wake Forest
Clemson takes on New Clemson as the Deacs will probably pick up only their second conference victory.
Pick: Wake Forest 69, Clemson 63

The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/20/06

Another Monday means another Top 25. I guess I have to start taking Villanova seriously. Anyway, after the rankings are the 65 teams that will make it into the NCAA tournament. More explanations below.

1. Connecticut (23-2), LW-1: A five-point loss on the road to another top 5 team isn’t reason to move down UConn. They’re still the best team in the country.
2. Duke (25-1), LW-2: Night in and night out, UConn is winning in the best conference in the country. Duke…not so much.
3. Villanova (21-2), LW-6: Two outstanding home wins. Still, ‘Nova lives by the three way too much and that will cost them shortly.
4. Memphis (24-2), LW-4: Tigers continue cruising to a number one tournament seed. They won’t move down unless they lose.
5. Gonzaga (22-3), LW-5: I would love to see a player other than Adam Morrison step up in conference play.
6. Texas (22-4), LW-3: The loss to Oklahoma State finally pushes the Horns below Memphis and Villanova, two teams that they have already beaten.
7. Ohio State (19-4), LW-7: Despite the loss at Wisconsin, the Buckeyes still have no bad losses and are still near the top of the Big 10. And their impressive victory over Illinois two weeks ago still sits well with me.
8. George Washington (22-1), LW-8: I’m going to start calling the eight spot the GW spot. The Colonials might as well start collecting rent here, ‘cause they aren’t moving up.
9. Illinois (22-4), LW-11: Needed large wins against Indiana and Northwestern and the Illini took care of business.
10. Pittsburgh (20-4), LW-14: How does this team keep climbing back in to the Top 10? They have no realistic shot at the Final Four.
11. Boston College (21-5), LW-15: BC may be the hottest team in the country. Since their early 0-3 start in the ACC, the Eagles have had plenty of close calls, but they keep putting W’s on the board.
12. Tennessee (19-4), LW-9: Loss on the road to Alabama not as bad as some may think. Still, does anyone really believe this team will win more than two games in the NCAA’s.
13. Washington (20-5), LW-19: The Huskies have now won four straight, the last two coming on the road.
14. North Carolina (17-6), LW-22: Why not? The Heels need to start climbing the rankings. They’re certainly better coached than the team three spots further down.
15. Florida (22-4), LW-10: This is how little faith I have in the Gators. They’re below a 17-6 ACC team. Billy Donovan’s streak of losing in the first round of the NCAA’s doesn’t appear to be in jeopardy this season.
16. Kansas (19-6), LW-20: Again, why not? They Jayhawks have won nine in a row. A win at Texas this weekend could vault them into the upper 12.
17. NC State (21-5), LW-23: Herb managed not to blow any games this week. We’ll see if he can manage a home win over UNC in a couple of days.
18. Oklahoma (17-6), LW-16: I don’t know which was worse. The loss at Colorado or the escape they pulled off at home against Iowa State.
19. Iowa (20-7), LW-18: How does the same team beat Michigan State and lose to Minnesota in the same week?
20. West Virginia (18-7), LW-12: Losses are losses. I don’t care who you play or where you play them. And the Mountain-queers have lost three of the last four.
21. UCLA (20-6), LW-13: Earlier loss to WVU at home forces me to put the Bruins below them.
22. Michigan State (19-7), LW-22: Another week goes by, and Michigan State losses another crucial Big 10 match-up.
23. Georgetown (17-7), LW-17: Like WVU, I won’t let G’town use the tough schedule as an excuse. Another loss this week and they’ll be out of the polls completely.
24. George Mason (21-5), LW-25: My prognosticating skills were shown last week when I was the only one who had the Patriots in the Top 25. Now it looks like ESPN is imitating me.
25. Northern Iowa (22-6), LW-NR: Solid win in the Bracket Buster game gets the Panthers in the rankings.

Next five in: Marquette, Nevada, LSU, California, San Diego State

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology (which was my minor in college by the way). I’m not going to bother with the seeding because it is SO subjective that no one really has any clue what the dopes at the NCAA Selection Committee do to determine who gets the last number three seed or where Bucknell is properly placed. But the conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conference. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences who are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. I simply picked the conference leaders of those smaller conferences. The rest of the conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (5): Boston College, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State
Big East (8): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big 10 (6): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac 10 (3): California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee,

Notes: I think the ACC at this point has to get five bids, and Florida State is the fifth best team record wise in the conference. Those who think that the committee is taking six from the ACC (that’s you Gary) are crazy right now. Cincinnati and Syracuse are still in the bubble region in the Big East. I think they’re both better than Seton Hall who didn’t make the cut this week. The Big 10 and Pac 10 are pretty much set unless Indiana or Arizona make some kind of run. I put Texas A&M in because four of their last five games are very winnable. I also met and know their coach Billy Gillespie who is a real nice guy. So the Aggies get bonus points for that. In the SEC, Alabama and Kentucky are still real reaches at this point. A bad loss here or there could send both out of the brackets for good. LSU, due to their conference record and victory over Tennessee, is the conference leader.

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (1): George Washington
Conference USA (3): Memphis, UAB, UTEP
Mountain West (2): Air Force, San Diego State

Notes: The only questionable call here is UTEP. Their RPI isn’t great. I still think Houston has a good chance to sneak in here if they play well down the stretch. It will also be interesting to see if Charlotte, Xavier or even La Salle make a run in the A-10 tournament.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial Athletic (2): George Mason, UNC-Wilmington
Horizon (1): Milwaukee-Wisconsin
Mid-American (1): Akron
Missouri Valley (4): Creighton, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (1): Gonzaga
Western Athletic(2): Nevada, Utah State

Notes: I’ve seen some analysts put five teams from the Valley into the tournament. I don’t think they will or should get that many. Southern Illinois is left out for now. They don’t have a quality win outside the conference and they lost their Bracket Buster game at home against Louisiana Tech. They also lost to Division II Alaska-Anchorage. Some other teams that could pop up here are South Alabama (Sun Belt) and Kent State (MAC). South Alabama will have to win their tournament to get in. They do have a realistic shot at winning it. Kent State could get an at-large birth if they reach the final of the MAC tourney.

SMALL
America East: Albany
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Pacific
Ivy: Pennsylvania
MAAC: Iona
Mid-Continent: IUPUI
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast Conference: Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Northwestern State
Southwestern: Southern U.

Notes: Bucknell will likely get into the Dance even if they lose their conference tournament. However, Davidson was undefeated in the Southern Conference last year and didn’t make the NCAA’s because they lost in the conference tourney. This week, mostly because I’m almost off the clock here at work and I’m about to go home, I simply went with the conference leaders. But Montana (Big Sky), UC Irvine (Big West), Manhattan (MAAC), and Samford (Ohio Valley) could easily make a case for being the best teams in their respective conferences. Montana and Manhattan will probably win their conference tournaments and pick up the automatic bid, which would knock out NAU and Iona respectively. The Southern Conference is really up for grabs. Davidson is technically tied with Elon and Georgia Southern. College of Charleston and Tennessee-Chattanooga also have good shots at the automatic bid come conference tourney time. Other than the Patriot, and only in the case of Bucknell losing, none of these conference have a chance for multiple bids.

Maryland Basketball: No Shirt, No Shoes, No Effort

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-13, 3-9 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (15-9, 5-6 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Hey, I figure if the Terps can sleepwalk through a game and look like a middle school junior varsity team, then I can get away with a lackluster post or two. Like I said before the Clemson game, Maryland needs to win four more this season. They’ve got five regular season games and one in the ACC Tournament to get to those four wins. This will probably be the last time I pick them. Honestly, if the Terps can’t beat Tech, the worst team in the ACC, than they might as well start making reservations for Madison Square Garden...if they haven't already.

Maryland 77
Georgia Tech 66

Elsewhere in the ACC…

My 4-1 midweek makes me 38-20 overall.

Saturday
NC State at Virginia Tech
I’m so used to seeing Herb blow easy games like this. I guess I’m a glutton for punishment. Thank you sir, may I have another.
Pick: NC State 71, Virginia Tech 65

Virginia at Florida State
Can Florida State really be .500 in the conference this late in the season? I don’t believe it. And I don’t believe it will continue.
Pick: Virginia 76, Florida State 71

Sunday
North Carolina at Wake Forest
Despite losing more players to gradua…er, early entry, the Heels have actually done more with less than their Tobacco Road neighbors. If Dave Leito didn’t have ACC Coach of the Year wrapped up, then it could have gone to Roy Williams.
Pick: North Carolina 83, Wake Forest 75

Miami at Duke
The two big problems for Miami are the lack of a consistent inside scorer and the complete inability to get back on defense and guard the perimeter. Unfortunately for the Canes, for a unit with their deficiencies, they’re sure facing the wrong team on Sunday.
Pick: Duke 87, Miami 70

Maryland Basketball: Desperate Times Make For Desperate Tigers

Maryland Terrapins (15-8, 5-5 ACC) at
Clemson Tigers (14-10, 3-8 ACC)
Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC

In talking to Maryland fans this week, I found that most of them were pretty happy with the way that the Terps played against Duke on Saturday. Funny, I thought they lost by eight points and were never really in the game after halftime. And this was a home game…they’re supposed to win those.

Here’s the thing. Two or three years ago, losing at home to Duke, by any amount, would have sent the campus and the fan base into an uproar. Now, it seems like everyone is accepting that fact that Maryland can’t compete with Duke. Why is this? The talent level is basically the same. Sure, no one on Maryland can compete with Backne one-on-one. But are you telling me, that to a man, the entire Duke team is better than all the players on Maryland? This isn’t the case. The talent is there. It’s just that the talent isn’t listening to the coach.

For one of the few times this year, the majority of players actually followed Gary’s gameplan. The Terps were determined to attack inside and get easy baskets. It is important to do this against the Dookies because a team that is able to get quick baskets inside doesn’t allow Duke to go on one of those nine or ten point blitzes that they so often do. Basically, the Terps strategy was to stop the patented Duke run before it even happened. And for 20 minutes, it was very effective.

But there were some on the team, namely Ekene Ibekwe and Sterling Ledbetter, who had mental lapses in the first eight minutes of the second half. While Duke never went on any runs, their lead methodically built from four to fourteen by the 10 minute mark. By running Maryland’s offense the way it normally runs, which is to have DJ dribble around for 10 seconds before someone takes an quick shot from 15 feet away, the Terps had too many bad possessions in the beginning of the second half. This cost them. After they fell behind by double-digits, their plan of working the ball inside wasn’t going to win the game for them. For some reason, the Terps looked scared to start shooting threes until there was two minutes left in the game. Now, is losing to Duke, considering how “good” they are supposed to be, a horrible loss? No, of course not. But this was a home game. This was a home game that Maryland needed to desperately win to merit consideration for an NCAA bid. And they came up flat for 20 minutes.

Let me tell you something. If the season ended today, Maryland would be on the outside looking in for the second straight season. Their resume is unimpressive. Their only win against a decent team came almost two months ago against Boston College. And that was a two-point win, at home when resident bookworm Chris McCray was still on the team. The committee isn’t going to pay much attention to anything happened when McCray was on the team. So in the post McCray era, the Terps are 2-4. They are 1-2 at home. Their two wins have been against a bad Georgia Tech team an average Virginia team. Even the RPI, which for most of the season floated somewhere in the high 20’s, is now at 41. There is no team in the top 65 of the RPI that has a worse road record than Maryland. The Terps are 1-7 against the RPI top 50 and have yet to have a statement win. This team would not receive a bid.

Playing Clemson tonight isn’t going to help Maryland on any account. If anything, a loss is much more damaging than a win is helpful. The Terps just need to grab a couple of road wins, and there is no better place to do it now than in the backwoods of South Carolina.

Clemson has one of the nicest campuses of all the ACC schools. But I’ve never seen such a collection of slack-jaw yokels concentrated in one area. And I’ve been to Morgantown, Winston-Salem, Tallahassee and Athens, Ga. One of my favorite stories from all the broadcasting road trips I took during college came while driving to Death Valley before the MD-CU football game. The game started at noon. So we had to get to the stadium by nine to prepare to go on-air. So three other guys and myself left our hotel room very early in the morning. We were all half asleep (even me, despite the fact I was driving). Then on one of the local stations, the strangest commercial comes on.

“Come down to Walgreens today and get your Clemson commemorative shotgun! You won’t find a better deal on any Clemson decorated shotgun. It will be a treasured heirloom in your family for years to come!”

Needless to say, everyone in the car woke up instantly and had a good laugh. How many Clemson graduates would go purchase this? There are very few colleges that would dare to pull this kind of promotion with a local shop. Only in rural South Carolina. Seriously, who would consider a Clemson logo-adorned shotgun as an heirloom? Other than Dick Cheney. I’d like to thank the vice president for proving my long stated point: guns don’t kill people; only stupid republicans with guns kill people.

Anyway, back to Oliver Purnell and the Tigers. We all know what happened last season. Despite the uncanny ability to act like a NBA team against Duke, the Terps somehow managed to lose three games to Clemson. It was very hard for Maryland to accomplish this feat, considering it takes most ACC teams ten years to lose three times to Clemson.

Two of the three main reasons Maryland lost those games won’t be playing tonight. The biggest factor in the three games was former Tigers center, and Maryland native, Sharrod Ford. He averaged over 20 points and nearly had a double-double in the games against the Terps. Maryland simply had no answer for him. Ford graduated last year and is languishing somewhere in the NBDL. The second player that killed Maryland was Vernon Hamilton. He hurt his hand over the weekend and Purnell says he’s doubtful to suit up tonight. His injury allows the third player that burned Maryland to be entered into the starting lineup. Shawan Robinson, who hit 15 threes in the three games against Maryland will get a rare start tonight for Purnell.

Most on Maryland blame the lack of effort for the three losses last year. I can buy that for one game, maybe even two. But in the third game in the ACC tournament, Clemson simply played better. Maryland couldn’t grab a rebound, and couldn’t defend either the perimeter or the interior. Clemson cruised to a rather easy win. It was one of the most embarrassing performances I’ve ever seen Maryland put together.

Maryland matches up better against Clemson this year. The Tigers don’t have the inside presence of Ford, so Maryland can focus more attention on the jump shooters. Without Hamilton, only Robinson and Akin Akinbala average more than 10 points a game. Purnell is starting to turn things around in Death Valley, but after a strong start, this won’t be the watershed season for the Tigers. They have lost five straight and seven of their last eight. They’ve got a bunch of interesting underclassmen in sophomores Sam Perry, James Mays and Cliff Hammonds; and freshmen K.C. Rivers, Julius Powell and Raymond Sykes. It will take a couple of additional season for Purnell, but Clemson is on the verge of being a threat in the ACC for the first time in over a decade.

Maryland has six games left. Four are on the road. I’m going to assume that Maryland will beat the Yellow Jackets at home and will lose to UNC on the road. Because the ACC is so down this season, Maryland, in my opinion, will need to win three of the following four games to even merit consideration for an at large birth: at Clemson, at Florida State, at home against Miami and at Virginia. Even three of four may not be enough. The Terps may have to win one in the ACC tournament. Anyway you slice it, Maryland needs to have a 9-7 conference record to make the NCAA’s. So they are going to have to win road games and win those road games in places they normally don’t perform well in. I don’t know if Maryland can win four more games, but I do like them in this one.

Maryland 72
Clemson 67

Elsewhere in the ACC…

I had another mediocre weekend, going 3-2. That puts me at 34-19 overall. Here are the picks for this week.

Tuesday
Wake Forest at Duke
Forget this season, Wake is going to be in even bigger trouble next year when they don’t even have Eric Williams and Justin Gray. Looks like I can safely tuck away my tie-dyed t-shirts for a while.
Pick: Duke 85, Wake Forest 69

Wednesday
Florida State at NC State
Herb Sendek is single-handedly killing my predicting record. Seriously Herb, Georgia Tech? Do you actually coach this team or do you dress up and parade around the sideline in a suit for no reason?
Pick: NC State 69, Florida State 62

Georgia Tech at North Carolina
I’m real interested to see what Roy Williams can do with an underrated team in March rather than an overrated one. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Heels won three games or so in the NCAA’s. Now that I’ve said that, I’m sure that the Heels will drop this one.
Pick: North Carolina 79, Georgia Tech 68

Thursday
Miami at Boston College
If the Eagles allow the Canes to hang around like they have with recent opponents, they are going to lose. I just don’t think Miami plays enough defense to stop both Smith and Dudley.
Pick: Boston College 85, Miami 80

The Predictor Top 25: 2/13/06

Unlike last week, I’ll actually name a number two team. Although I don’t see the point because Connecticut is going to run away with the title this season. I actually expect UConn to lose at least once this week at either Villanova or West Virginia. If they only lose once, I’ll probably keep them in the top spot anyway. We’ll see.

The top half of this poll is becoming very frustrating for me to put together. Record wise, these teams deserve to be in the Top 10. But, I like to do my rankings with an emphasis on what I think is going to happen in March rather than what happened last week. Therefore, teams like Duke, Villanova, GW, Florida, Pittsburgh and Tennessee may technically have the resume of a top team, but in March, I would be surprised if more than one of those aforementioned programs makes the Final Four. I have much more faith in teams like Illinois, UCLA, Oklahoma, Boston College and Iowa to do damage next month. But I simply can’t justify putting them in the top half of the rankings with their records at the moment. Just for the record, I think a heckava lot more of most of the teams around the rankings from 11-20 than I do of the teams from 2-10.

1. Connecticut (22-1), LW-1: If this team doesn’t win it all, it would be one of the biggest shockers in recent tournament play.
2. Duke (23-1), LW-3: Here they are and here they’ll stay. Unless UConn completely goes down the tubes.
3. Texas (21-3), LW-4: Horns should get two more blowout wins to keep them in this slot next week.
4. Memphis (22-2), LW-5: With their schedule, I hate to keep putting them this high. But have you seen the other teams that are gracing the Top 10 this week?
5. Gonzaga (20-3), LW-7: Their win, coupled with my belief that Villanova is a March flameout waiting to happen, finally allows the Zags to move into my Top 5.
6. Villanova (19-2), LW-6: Hoping that UConn takes them down tonight so I can take them down next week. Get this Philadelphia junk off the top of my rankings.
7. Ohio State (18-3), LW-13: I’ve been getting a lot of crap over my ranking of OSU. Prove me wrong you doubters. They’ve lost three games this season, one at home in double OT to Michigan State, one at Indiana by 2 points and one at Iowa by 5 points. Why shouldn’t they be ahead of Florida and GW?
8. George Washington (20-1), LW-9: Survived a game with St. Joe’s that shouldn’t have been close. Because of the weakness of the A-10, my new rule is GW can climb no higher than sixth in future polls.
9. Tennessee (18-3), LW-16: I really don’t want to put the Vols here. But they go above Florida because they’ve already beaten the Gators this season.
10. Florida (21-3), LW-8: I said I’d move Gators up if they beat LSU last week. And while they did manage to beat the Tigers, they also managed to screw up an easy game against South Carolina. They move down instead.
11. Illinois (20-4), LW-10: I won’t penalize Illini for their road loss to Ohio State.
12. West Virginia (18-5), LW-11: Tough loss at Pitt was made up for by good win at Georgetown.
13. UCLA (20-5), LW-12: Like Illinois, I won’t penalize the Bruins for a three-point loss in Seattle. Their 50-30 win over Wazzou was impressive.
14. Pittsburgh (19-3), LW-20: Their win at home over West Virginia gives them a grand total of one quality victory. If you really think that Pitt is better than WVU on a neutral court, I want you to stop coming to this site. Just kidding…please don’t leave.
15. Boston College (19-5), LW-15: The Eagles have to start beating weaker competition by more than five or six points.
16. Oklahoma (16-5), LW-19: The Sooners have an interesting game coming up this week at Boulder.
17. Georgetown (17-5), LW-14: I’m a bit worried about the way that G’town looked almost helpless against WVU at home. Maybe I’ve been overranking them? Or maybe it’s just one game.
18. Iowa (19-6), LW-21: Big game this week against the Spartans. Hopefully the Hawkeyes will prove me right for ranking them ahead of MSU.
19. Washington (18-5), LW-25: After a couple of bad losses, Lorenzo Romar righted the ship this week with two solid wins against the Los Angeles schools.
20. Kansas (17-6), LW-NR: Could it be? A Jawhawk sighting? There is life this season in Lawrence after all.
21. Michigan State (18-6), LW-19: Another head scratching loss, this time against pitiful Minnesota.
22. North Carolina (15-6), LW-23: After a tough loss to the Dookies, the Heels recovered nicely to grind out a win at Miami
23. NC State (19-5), LW-17: Just when it looks like the Pack are turning the corner, Herb Sendek has one of his patented bad losses to awful Georgia Tech.
24. California (15-6), LW-NR: Winners of five straight, Cal could make up some ground very quickly in the open Pac-10, and then do damage with Leon Poe in March.
25. George Mason (19-5), LW-NR: Yes, you’re reading it right. The Patriots are in the Top 25. They play in one of this year’s toughest mid-major conferences and should be in line for a NCAA birth even if they lose in the CAA tournament.

Next five in: Colorado, Northern Iowa, LSU, Florida State (hey, they’re 15-6), UTEP

Maryland Basketball: Is That A Sharpie In Your Pocket, Or Are You Just Happy To Get The Calls?

Duke Blue Devils (22-1, 10-0 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (15-7, 5-4 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

First off, congrats again to Gary Williams. Finally getting that record-breaking win is a terrific accomplishment. It’s a disgrace that he hasn’t been named to the Hall of Fame yet. I’m sure the invite will be coming soon, unlike the one for Art Monk which seems like it will never be issued (more on that at another time).

All right students. You’ve waited all season for this. You’ve kept your loyalty points up all year by scanning and leaving. Now you actually have to show up for a game and make some noise. I know the concept of noise is foreign to anyone who is currently a junior or below, but it’s time to make some.

That “clean” program from Durham pays their yearly visit (although how long the Duke-Maryland guaranteed home-and-home is going to last is anyone’s guess). As soon as they enter Comcast Center, their presence alone turns what is usually a well-behaved student body into a bunch of animals for three hours. In other words, turns them into a bunch of Eagles fans. But I digress. It didn’t used to be this way. When I was an undergrad and an underclassman, we used to show up and be loud for EVERY game. Not just one or two. Again, I’ve previously talked at length about how the current group of students are horrible fans, and I don’t need to go into any more detail about that. They’ll be there for this game.

I do have some space to devote to the Duke ref bias, which has reared its ugly, Coach K-like head in the last couple of weeks. Just check out this number. Against BC and FSU, Duke shot 80 free throws. Their opponents shot 24. Just a bit of a discrepancy, wouldn’t you say? As I stated before, analysts and Duke apologists everywhere try to tell everyone willing to listen that Duke gets that advantage by attacking the basket more than other teams. Which, of course, is completely false. Duke hardly attacks the basket at all. The Dookies are a jump shooting team with Backne leading the way. They will go inside to The Rapist and Big White Stiff once and awhile, but no more than any other team. In fact, Boston College is a team that works the ball inside more often and better than most teams in the nation do because they struggle shooting from outside. So the theory that Duke attacks the basket, while teams like BC do not, is just bogus.

Here is the real reason that Duke gets the calls. Because they’re Duke. Because the higher ups at the ACC realize that this is one of the weakest products they’ve ever put out on the floor. Can anyone remember the ACC being so down? So what are conference officials to do? Just like they did in 1991, 1992 and 2001, other notable weak seasons for the ACC, they take the “best” team in conference and build them up. Similar to what the Big 12 does in football. They build them up to look unstoppable. They market the entire conference around one team, and in this case, one player, to make the conference look better than it actually is. And since the Dookies are the so-called clean cut, All-American program, they are the team that benefits from the ACC generosity and the refs incompetence. Interesting enough, ’91, ’92, and ’01 were the three worst RPI seasons in the ACC until this year. It should come as no surprise that Duke “won” the national championship all three of those seasons. So the ACC plan of building one uber-team worked. The hype machine not only got Duke through the regular season and conference tournament, but March Madness as well. Like James Earl Jones said, “If you build it, they will come.” The ACC has interpreted that to mean, “If you hype them, and give them enough calls, they will win.”(And they will make us tons of money!)

Unlike Carolina in 1993 and 2004, and unlike Maryland in 2002, Duke ran through a weak conference, with the benefit of getting calls from the refs who were under orders to do so from the league offices. As a result, they picked up a number one seed from the Tournament Committee and ran through a weak bracket on their way to championships. And just in case they run into any trouble in March, the ACC and Duke make sure the refs are similarly biased in the Final Four. In 2001, not only did horrendous officiating victimize Maryland, but Arizona as well in the championship game. Lute Olsen went on several famous tirades after the game complaining about the officials. And if it was just one coach who complained, you could ignore it as a case of sour grapes. But there have been many coaches, who have complained multiple times, about the Duke ref bias. After a while, it fails to become a series of separate incidents and instead becomes a trend and a clear-cut plot. Duke, when left to their own devises in close games, will choke more often than not. In their 2002 game against Indiana, the refs didn’t give Ratface and company the close calls. Not surprisingly, they lost to the Hoosiers. And that classy Duke program left the floor with their heads up high. If you don’t count 10th year senior Matt Christiansen physically attacking one ref while Evil Knevil Williams chased after another one while sobbing uncontrollably. No word if he did so on a motorcycle or not. Class acts all the way.

So this brings me back to last week. Duke won two games, by a total of three points, while getting almost four times as many free throws as their opponents. Again, we have a weak ACC. Again, we have a conference that needs a premier program. Again, we have multiple coaches (Seth Greenburg, Al Skinner, Leonard Hamilton) complaining about Duke getting calls. This isn’t a myth. This isn’t a conspiracy. This is happening. It is happening on the road and at home. Deron Washington getting thrown out of a game for kicking Original White Stiff, while during the same game, that same White Stiff threw multiple cheap shot elbows and got away with every one of them. There was The Rapist, nearly knocking that poor BC player unconscious in the lane late in the game, and getting away with. Then there was the situation last weekend. The Rapist got into an altercation with a FSU player. Naturally, the FSU player was tossed. Again, that “classy” Duke program can’t do anything wrong. So while playing a man down, FSU hung in there for 45 minutes if you include overtime. Still, when push came to shove, some more questionable calls down the stretch literally handed the game to the Dookies. It’s a wonder that a team that has an almost 4:1 ratio of attempted free throws can only manage to beat their opponents by a single point, at home, in overtime.

But something happened in the game against FSU. The ACC, realizing that the refs were so blatantly and obviously giving Duke calls, suspended that crew for their next assignment (We still don’t know if the ACC suspended them because they were giving an unfair advantage to the floor-slappers, or because they were giving them such an obvious advantage. Remember, the league is in this scheme too. They’ve got to be careful.). So maybe, just maybe, the officiating is starting to turn around. Maybe.

The fact of the matter is, this Duke team is not that good. They’ve run the table so far in the ACC. Oh wow, impressive. Execpt for this minor detail: the ACC hasn’t been this bad in decades. Every decent team that Duke has gone up against has given them considerable amount of trouble. They needed a half court shot to win one game. They needed the refs to win twice last week and earlier this year against Memphis. This is not a championship caliber team. This isn’t even a Final Four caliber team. One bad shooting night by Redick (who by the way, between poetry sessions, has apparently been busted for possession several times in the past few years...clean program my ass) in March, and he has had plenty of those during his career, and the Dookies are out. They will not win six games in March with a weak bench, with inconsistent offense from their role players and most importantly, with a freshman point guard. The major undoing of this team will be Greg Paulus. Mark my words. I’m saying it right now. When (not if) Duke loses in the tournament, it will be because of Paulus. Ratface is a fool for expecting a freshman point guard to lead this team.

Looking ahead to March, you can expect the NCAA to give Duke a comfy bracket. Eventually, they are going to run into a team that plays some resemblance of perimeter defense. Once they do, it will be bye-bye Ratface. Half the teams in the Big East (most notably, Connecticut, West Virginia and Pittsburgh) will either out-score the Dookies or make life miserable for Just Jumpers. Teams like Illinois, Ohio State and Wisconsin would also give Duke fits. And Oklahoma’s backcourt would have a field day against the smaller Blow Devils. Even Memphis I’m sure would love another shot with un-biased referees. Just look what Georgetown did to them. And there are plenty of teams that are much better than the Hoyas (just not in the ACC). When Duke gets knocked out, I wonder if Just Jumpers will take the Williams approach and cry or take the Christiansen approach and act like he’s in a bad episode of Cops. Either way, it will be fun to watch. I have that to look forward to next month.

I say that I have that to look forward to because I have a feeling that I won’t have much to look forward to tomorrow. Duke didn’t beat Maryland last month as much as Maryland beat themselves. Most Terps turnovers were unforced errors. I don’t expect Maryland to make that many mistakes in this game. However, whatever game plan Gary has will probably not be followed by his players. Let’s just say that falling behind by 13 to Virginia isn’t a good sign when it comes to players executing a game plan.

Again, expect this game to be closer than last time. The crowd will be in Maryland’s favor. The Dookies won’t get a chance to pull out their sharpies and sign the court, which was a ridiculous idea to begin with. Plus, I understand the Ol’ Left Hander will be in attendance. That should add a bit of emotion to the place. Still, Maryland doesn’t have much of a chance anyway. I’m picking them only for romantic, impractical reasons (hey, it’s almost Valentine’s Day). My head says Duke by at least 10. My heart says…

Maryland 80
Duke 76

Elsewhere in the ACC…

It looks like that 6-0 slate of predictions was a one time deal. I was 3-3 last week. Overall, in ACC games, I’m 31-17. Here are the picks for the weekend.

Saturday
Virginia Tech at Virginia
A battle to see which Commonwealth team is more Virginia-y. I’ll take the Hoos.
Pick: Virginia 68, Virginia Tech 60

Clemson at Boston College
Just like last week against Tech, BC will make this game a lot more interesting than it should be. The Eagles have simply not found a consistent way to use Marshall as their third scorer after Smith and Dudley.
Pick: Boston College 81, Clemson 69

Sunday
NC State at Georgia Tech
This has all the makings of a Cedric Simmons 20-point, 8 rebound type of game.
Pick: NC State 74, Georgia Tech 65

North Carolina at Miami
If you have any clue who is going to win this game, please get in contact with the Predictor before tip-off. Otherwise, I’m going to bet on Tyler Hansbrough against Miami’s weak inside defense.
Pick: North Carolina 78, Miami 74

Maryland Basketball: Hoo Is Going To Step Up?

Virginia Cavaliers (11-8, 5-4 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (14-7, 4-4 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

What to make of the Virginia Cavaliers? This curious little team was supposed to reside in the cellar of the ACC this season, but they've already posted five conference wins. Looking at their schedule, they have at least three or four winnable games left in conference. However, due to their strange losses this season to Fordham (at home) and Western Kentucky, the Cavs will probably need nine ACC victories to even get a second look from the NCAA selection committee.

For years the Wahoos were one of the more predictable teams in the ACC. They would lose on the road. Always. Almost no exceptions. At the same time, UVA would play very well, nearly downright unbeatable, at home. They would usually go 1-7 on the road in conference and grab about 6 wins or so at home. So with a .500 conference record and a weak pre-conference schedule, the Hoos would always be on the outside looking in come March.

This March figures to be no different. But the way the Cavs have obtained their 11-8 record is an unusual way...at least for them. Along with the loss to Fordham, the Cavs also dropped a home game to Florida State and nearly lost to UNC, Clemson and New Clemson (Wake Forest) this season at University Hall. But away for Charlottesville, the Cavs have been competitive with some regularity under new coach Dave Leito. UVA has already picked up an ACC road win in Blacksburg. They've also won at Richmond against a decent Spiders team. Last week, the Cavs gave NC State a major scare in Raleigh before losing by two. They've also been close to wins at Gonzaga and at Georgia Tech. This appears to be a Cavs team that finally has some direction, other than a downward sprial, once the conference season starts.

A lot of this can be attributed to Leito. Pete Gillen, after years of deserving his pink slip, was finally let go in the off-season. Leito, the former coach at Depaul, took over a team that had a couple of ACC-caliber players and a whole bunch of others that most D-1 coaches wouldn't touch. Leito has made this team dangerous in conference in less than a season with players that Gillen couldn't coach past the play-in game at the ACC Tournament (Ok, quick history lesson. Back before the ACC added 17 teams, there used to only be nine universities in the conference. The play-in game featured the two worst teams playing for the right to face the conference's best team the next day with little rest. To be in the play-in game was an embarassing feat. Most of the play-in games since 1995 have featured a combination of FSU, UVA and Clemson. I know I lost most readers during this break-in...sorry. No more history lessons today.). Even if his team isn't competitive, Leito at least has the common sense not to waste all his timeouts before halftime, which was a Gillen specialty. Really, it was the only thing he did well. At the moment, Leito should have everyone's vote for ACC Coach of the Year.

The Cavs, who despite their past failings on the road, were the first ACC team to win at the Comcast Center. Since that win in 2003, the Hoos have been blown out of the building in two straight appearences. But remember, all conventional pre-Gillen Cavs wisdom must be thrown out the door. It is a new day at UVA, and this team will come into the Shell tonight and compete.

Maryland, at least on the perimeter, doesn't match up well at all with Virginia. Nine of the past ten opponents have exceeded their average of three-point shots made per game against the Terps. No where was the Terps lack of outside defense more evident than during their trip to Philadelphia 10 days ago. I still can't believe that Maryland gave up 91 to the Owls. You really have to try hard to be that bad. But anyway, UVA has three guys who can light it up from outside.

Adrian Joesph is shooting a modest 36% from the arc, but has an uncanny ability to create his own shot. Joesph is one of the best in the ACC when it comes to getting himself in position to shoot. J.R. Reynolds, who along with T.J. Bannister, fills the necessary quota of initial players that all D.C. area teams must have. He also shoots pretty well from outside. Reynolds went nuts in the double-overtime thriller last year between the two teams at U-Hall. And unlike most Maryland guards, Reynolds doesn't turn the ball over a whole heckuva lot. And there is Sean Singletary. Singletary was the best freshman point guard the ACC has seen in decades. This season, Singletary is even better. He is averaging 18 points and 5 assists per game for the Cavs. Even with Leito making this entire team better, without Singletary, this team wouldn't win more than 10 games all season.

The problem with UVA, and the reason that they do have eight losses, including several eyebrow raisers, is that there is little inside presence for the Cavs. Just about every team that beat the Hoos used a superior inside offensive game coupled with a decent perimeter defense to knock the win. I would think, and I would like to assume, that Gary will try and beat into his team's head that they need to go inside tonight with the ball. Hopefully Caner-Medley won't be sucking wind due to stomach flu, because there is no player on UVA that can guard him. Nik has had some of his best games against the Hoos. If he gets 20, and Mike Jones is able to hit some early threes, then the Cavs will rush and begin to hurry their outside shots.

Again, the question is who is going to stop the Cavs from hitting threes? Maryland's inability to stop the other team from hitting long shots isn't in itself killing the Terps. But if you can't score, and can't stop the other team from hitting 3 points at a time, then it doesn't take Chris McCray to figure out the reason for Maryland's three game slide. Some teams can get away with being a one-sided club. Look at Wisconsin. For a long time, the Badgers couldn't score more than 60 points a game. But their opponents would never score 55. But Maryland is a balanced team at the moment. The problem is they are bad on both sides of the ball. Still, Maryland should, and has to, win this game. A loss here, and the Terps' March experience will be similar to the one the Cavs are going to have.

Maryland 77
Virginia 70

Elsewhere in the ACC...

After a sluggish 20-12 start in conference, I have finally gotten a read on the ACC and am well on my way to blowing all other predictors (really, can there be that many other than me) out of the water. I was 8-2 last week, including a 6-0 Super Bowl weekend. That bumps the ol' record up to 28-14. I'm hotter than a Keira Knightly/Scarlett Johansson photo shoot. Here come another set of winners.

Tuesday
Duke at North Carolina
Finally. It is about damn time that the conference did something about the pro-Duke officiating. After Duke was handed two gift wins by the refs last week, the ACC suspended the officials that screwed up the Duke-FSU game. The foul shots tell the story. Duke outshot their opponents from the line almost at a 4:1 clip. And the favorite excuse from the ESPN and Duke talking head media outlets is that "they attack the basket more than other teams." No they don't. Have you ever watched a Duke game? All they do is shoot. Once in awhile they throw a bone to Sheldon Williams inside, but other than that, they attack the hoop less than most teams. They simply get calls. This suspension is just one of the many that should have happened in the past 15 years. More on Blow Devils and the refs later this weekend. The fallout of all this should mean that Duke gets no calls tonight. Without the refs, the Dookies must actually play a game 5 vs. 5. Ratface will be beside himself tonight looking for someone to take his roll of hundreds.
Pick: North Carolina 75, Duke 69

Wednesday
NC State at Miami
This one is a toss up. The Pack seem to be playing better on the road than they are at home this season. Miami continues to impress, and appears to be on the verge of getting and NCAA bid. State still seems to be in this mini-funk of theirs, so I'll go with The U at home.
Pick: Miami 77, NC State 66

Boston College at Wake Forest
Poor Skip Prosser. He has gone from genious to dope in less than two seasons flat. Boston College will make this one more interesting than they should
Pick: Boston College 82, Wake Forest 75

Virginia Tech at Clemson
If the Tigers want to be taken seriously, they need a win here. Hey, I'm rooting for Clemson to finally get their act together and start resembling an ACC basketball team after years of abysmal play.
Pick: Clemson 68, Virginia Tech 59

Thursday
Georgia Tech at Florida State
Yuck. I'll regret this pick.
Pick: Florida State 75, Georgia Tech 63

The Predictor Top 25: 2/06/06

So funny thing happened last night. I was watching the Super Bowl, and a Duke basketball game broke out. Since when did Coach K start fixing football games? Seriously, I haven't seen a game called that one-sided since...well, since the Duke-BC or Duke-FSU game this past week. I'll get to the Top 25 in a moment. I'd be remissed if I didn't address the horrible officiating last night. If I'm Seattle, I scream bloody murder until someone from the NFL comes out and admits that there was some sort of fix in for the Super Bowl. Here are just some of the calls that should raise a few eyebrows to any impartial, and remember, I'm an impartial fan in this case:
1. The offensive pass interference call against Darrell Jackson. Offensive pass interference should only be called if the receiver gains an overwhelming advantage by committing the foul. Jackson simply slapped the defender's hand off of him while reading the pass and cutting left to make the catch.
2. The Roethlisberger "touchdown". Clearly not a black-and-white call. But just one in a long line of questionable calls to go against the Seahawks.
3. The first two holding penalties. Al Michaels and John Madden didn't make a big deal about either of the first two holding calls against Seattle. But both were terrible calls that cost Seattle first downs.
4. The holding call on Sean Locklear. The worst and most costly wrong call of the night. Locklear made a nearly perfect block on Clark Haggins. It turns out, it was too perfect. He took out Haggins so well that the refs just assumed he was holding and threw a flag. Locklear got his hands in between the shoulder blades and knocked Haggins to the turf with ease. The Seahawks completed a 18-yard pass to set up a first and goal inside the two. Instead, Seattle had a 1st and 20 from the 30-yard line. A few plays later, Matt Hasselbeck forced a throw on third and long and it was picked off, which set up bad call number...
5. After Ike Taylor made the pick, he ran a good 15 yards before Hasselbeck tackled him at the Pittsburgh 28. Hasselbeck tackled him at the knees and was called for a 15-yard personal foul for a low block. Huh? He was MAKING A TACKLE. As long as he doesn't grab the facemask or trip the player, he is allowed to hit him anywhere he wants. And I don't think that Hasselbeck was trying to make a block. This call simply made no sense and Michaels even said so on-air. So instead of starting at the 28, Pittsburgh gets the ball at the 43. The field position sets up the gadget play touchdown from Antwaan Randle-El to Hines Ward. That touchdown basically ended the game, but not before bad call...
6. This was a bad missed call. On the Randle-El touchdown pass, the entire right side of the Pittsburgh line held. The right guard, tackle and I believe one of the tight ends all grabbed their defenders and tackled them. Want to know why Randle-El had so much time to throw? That's the reason.

Sadly, this is the short list. Anyone else find these series of bad call odd? Especially considering that Pittsburgh was almost screwed themselves by the refs against Indianapolis. The NFL saw a chance to rectify the divisional game. You can also guarantee that the NFL didn't want a team like Seattle, which isn't very marketable, to win the Super Bowl. This created a perfect storm. The NFL delievered their I-O-U to the Steelers in the league's biggest stage. Disgusting. Fortunately, I'm not a Seahawks fan and I won't have to stew over a disheartening loss like this.

Here's the Top 25.

1. Connecticut (20-1), LW-1: Two solid wins against Top 25 opponents keep the Huskies on a roll. Clearly the nation's best team.
2. NO ONE, LW-NR: No one deserves to be number two this week. Illinois choked, Memphis played weak opponents and Duke bought the refs. Besides, UConn is so far ahead of any other team, what's the point of having a second ranked squad.
3. Duke (21-1), LW-2: Number of games Duke won last week: 0. Number of games the refs won for Duke last week: 2. The Dookies move down.
4. Texas (19-3), LW-5: The Horns move back up after wins against Missouri and Texas A&M.
5. Memphis (21-2), LW-4: Move down a spot even after two victories. Tigers better get used to it, their schedule is going to kill them in the polls and RPI in a few weeks.
6. Villanova (17-2), LW-6: Another week, another set of victories, another set of near losses.
7. Gonzaga (17-3), LW-7: Big game against Stanford this week. Maybe they'll move up if they win. Maybe not
8. Florida (20-2), LW-10: Ok, win over Kentucky was pretty good. Beat LSU this week, and then we'll be in business.
9. George Washington (18-1), LW-9: I think the close win over Xavier isn't a good sign for Colonials. It shows just how much they are going to struggle when March rolls around.
10. Illinois (20-3), LW-3: A home loss to Penn State? Yikes.
11. West Virginia (17-4), LW-11: Two unimpressive wins keep them at 11. Road games at Pitt and Georgetown will show us what the Mountaineers can do on the road in conference. I think that undefeated conference record is about to bite the dust.
12. UCLA (19-4), LW-12: The Bruins quietly keep winning in the obscurity of the Pac-10. Two games in the hinterlands of Washington will prove to be a stern test.
13. Ohio State (16-3), LW-14: The Buckeyes are for real. When will the media figure this out?
14. Georgetown (16-4), LW-17: This may be a bit too high for Hoyas, but a win over WVU would confirm my suspicions that this team is destined for the Sweet 16.
15. Boston College (17-5), LW-15: Won't penalize Eagles for their loss to Duke, considering they played the majority of the game 5 vs. 8.
16. Tennessee (16-3), LW-19: Reluctently moving the Vols to 16th despite the feeling that they are about to start losing. A t least one loss coming up this week with two road games.
17. NC State (18-4), LW-13: Why is State below BC? I don't know, maybe it has something to do with that 18-point Eagles win over State a few weeks ago.
18. Oklahoma (14-5), LW-18: Let me down with one-point loss against Kansas. They drop as result, but I still think this team has Final Four potential.
19. Michigan State (17-5), LW-20: Three weeks ago, I thought MSU was going to contend for the Big 10, and maybe, just maybe, the national title. Now, they have first or second round knockout written all over them.
20. Pittsburgh (17-3), LW-8: Frauds, frauds, frauds.
21. Iowa (18-5), LW-24: If they can avoid any further injuries or academic problems, they'll cause problems in the Big 10 tournament.
22. Michigan (16-4), LW-18: Join the rest of their Big 10 counterparts here in the muck of the bottom half of the polls. One of these teams is going to have to step it up to join Illinois and OSU higher in the rankings.
23. North Carolina (14-5), LW-NR: We'll see what UNC does against Duke and the refs tomorrow.
24. Alabama-Birmingham (16-4), LW-NR: After a few weeks of ranking them in "Next Five", I finally find a spot for Blazers in the true rankings. Only loss in conference to Memphis. UAB is going to make a dangerous 8/9 seed.
25. Washington (16-5), LW-16: Oh c'mon U-Dub. Don't get swept by Wazzou. Coach Romar, you're better than that.

Next Five In: Colorado, Northern Iowa, LSU, San Diego State, Indiana

The Big Five Games:
Tuesday
#3 Duke at #23 North Carolina: Tune in to see how the refs will keep Duke undefeated in league play.
Thursday
#11 West Virginia at #20 Pittsburgh: Which team is for real? Find out.
Saturday
LSU at #8 Florida: I smell an upset coming in the O'Connell Center.
#3 Duke at Maryland: Will Maryland play at their typical NBA-like level at home against the Dookies? It will be the one arena that refs won't dare give Ratface all the calls.
Sunday
#10 Illinois at #13 Ohio State: Forget Wisconsin. These are the two top teams in the Big Ten. Last year's game in Columbus was a classic.

Super Bowl XL: The Game May Be Great, But In Every Way, Detroit Is A Super Bust

Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-5)
6:30 p.m. Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Super Bowl XL

I don’t know if I can do it anymore. I don’t know if I want the keyboard in my hands if there is less than two minutes to go before a game. I don’t think I can handle the pressure. Maybe I’ll stop this blog. Or maybe I’ll just act like a dumb southern drunk redneck hic and parade myself in front of the cameras for months while keeping a once great franchise in limbo.

Man, has it really been three weeks since I last talked about football. I didn’t think the NFL would keep playing with the Redskins out of the playoffs. What’s the point? For some reason, the NFL decided to hold this Super Bowl thing on schedule with a team that everyone is tired of hearing about and another team that no one cares about.

*This just in: Jerome Bettis is believed to be from the Detroit area. We’ll have to double check to make sure. In a related story, 98 percent of the nation doesn't care.*

For some reason, the NFL decided to place their biggest game in one of America’s most embarrassing cities. This marks the second straight season that the NFL has passed over more obvious and pleasant sites, like San Diego or Miami, or large northern cities that aren’t crumbling right before our eyes, like New York or Washington. Last year’s game was in Jacksonville. Now personally, I love Jacksonville. I went down there for the 2004 Gator Bowl when Maryland was in it (remember, once upon a time the Maryland football team was actually good) and I had a blast. Balmy weather, friends everywhere and police that were extremely lax on underage drinking made Jacksonville a Mark the Predictor favorite city. The Gator Bowl is one thing. But a Super Bowl in Jacksonville? I think not. It’s too small. There isn’t enough to do. The Gator Bowl festivities last a few days. The Super Bowl parties last two weeks. Jacksonville Landing and stripclubs with second rate women whoring it up are only interesting for a couple of days. A city that hosts a Super Bowl needs more.

So the NFL, in its infinite wisdom, tries to recover from last year’s mistake. They say forget San Diego. Forget Miami. Let’s hold a Super Bowl in Detroit! All right! Because the first thing I think about when I think Detroit is fun and excitement! What, was Boise already booked? Where is the Super Bowl going to be held next year? Tulsa? Fargo? Saskatoon?

The city is a joke. There are dilapidated buildings everywhere. It has one of the highest murder and crime rates in the country. It has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. It has one of the highest riot per capita ratings in the country (finishing second to College Park, MD…but if the Pistons keep winning, it’s only a matter of time before Detroit moves up). It just so happens that Detroit is usually cold and nasty during the first week of February. Yeah, this city is just screaming Super Bowl. The only decent thing about Motown is that the city of Windsor, Ontario is right across the border. And what happens in Windsor stays in Windsor!

*This just in: Joey Porter went five minutes without talking trash. And Satan’s complaining that it’s getting cold in Hell.*

Detroit apparently is using this weekend to showcase the upcoming renaissance that is about to take hold North of Lake Erie. Unfortunately, that belief is simply a pipe dream. Let’s treat this Super Bowl for what it is: Detroit’s last ditch effort to remain a respectable city before all Hell breaks loose and the city finally falls apart at the seems. But on the bright side, the city of Detroit will finally get to see an NFL game after years of waiting patiently for the league to give them a franchise (Wait, the Lions are still there? Hmmm…I stick by my previous statement.).

And just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for this urban dump, it gets worse. As we all know by now, at least I hope you do, Jerome Bettis happens to be from Detroit. Earlier this week, he was given the key to the city. A nice gesture to be sure. But not so great when you figure out the person who last received the key to the city. Do you wanna take a guess as to the last person that was given the key to Detroit? No, not Stevie Wonder. No, not Barry Sanders. No, not Larry Brown. Are you ready? Seriously, you aren’t going to believe it. The person who last received Detroit’s key was Saddam Hussein. I’m not making this up. I’m dead serious. Here's the link. He was given the key to the city of Detroit in 1980. The last person that Detroit placed such an honor on was SADDAM FUCKING HUSSEIN. It is so absurd, I don’t even have a joke for this. You want to talk embarrassing, it doesn’t get much worse than that.

Well done Detroit. And well done NFL. By the way, the weather forecast for this weekend calls for a 100% chance of snow in the Motor City. This couldn’t be more of a complete disaster.

*This just in: The Redskins have signed Bill Parcells, Mike Martz and the rights to Vince Lombardi’s ghost.*

I guess I have to talk about the actual game now. I really don’t have a horse in the race. I guess if you were to twist my arm, I'd tell you to stop twisting my arm before the beating begins, then I’d say that I’m rooting for Seattle. I can’t stand Joey Porter. Any player that feels the need to talk that much is clearly compensating for something. In Porter’s case, he is trying to hide his mediocre talent. The Steelers do a great job of concealing his inability in their defensive schemes. Porter knows that he only gets free shots at the quarterback because the opposing team is blocking everybody else. He also gets more opportunities to make plays because the opposition usually runs and throws right at him. So Porter decides to run his mouth because he knows the media is too lazy to actually breakdown game film. As long as he gives them material to air and print, they’ll go with the easy story instead of actually doing some research.

On top of my disdain for Porter, I’m tiring of the non-stop Jerome Bettis coverage. I think most people are as well. I don’t need to see the slo-mo replay of Bettis mouthing “We’re going home” 272 time, no wait, I just saw it again, 273 times in the course of 10 days. I don’t remember Terrell Davis getting this much coverage when he played Super Bowl XXXII in San Diego. And Davis was 10 times the running back in 1998 that Bettis is now in 2006. Go figure. So if Seattle wins, it accomplishes two things. One, it doesn’t give the media the easy headline of Bettis “returning home”. Which means they will actually have to do some work. And secondly, it will shut up Porter once and for all, and maybe he’ll be exposed as the fraud he is.

*This just in: Donovan McNabb and Hugh Douglas get into a verbal brawl (otherwise known as a “pussy fight”) over which one of them should put their foot in their mouth first*

Unfortunately, the matchup seems to favor Pittsburgh. Don’t believe me? Well, I’ll try to break it down position by position to see who has the edge.

Quarterback: Hard to tell who the better quarterback is right now. This is probably one of the more evenly matched positions between the two teams. Big Ben clearly has more potential and has played nearly flawless for the last two months. Bad news for Ben: So has Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks victory over the Redskins with Shaun Alexander on the sideline should prove how good Baldy is. Facing of the league’s best defenses, with an offense that had suddenly become one-dimensional, Hasselbeck led his team by converting numerous third downs and nicely managing the game by using audibles and quick routes at the line of scrimmage. So it’s a tough call. I’m going to wuss out here. Edge: Even


Ben Roethlisberger (l) and Matt Hasselbeck will cancel each other out on Sunday.

Running Back: One team has the league MVP who ran for 1,880 yards and set the NFL record for most touchdowns in a season. This team also happens to have a Pro-bowl fullback and a terrific change-of-pace back. The other team has two backs who can’t carry the load by themselves and regularly need breathers. Combined, Willie Parker and Bettis don’t come close to holding Alexander’s jock strap. Edge: Seahawks

Wide Receiver/Tight End: As glaring of an advantage as Seattle has at the running back spot, Pittsburgh has just as big of a lead at the wideouts. Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle-El seem unstoppable right now. I wasn’t that impressed by their performances against Indy and Cincinnati because those two teams have weak secondaries. But their performance against Denver’s zone was much better. Very few wide receivers find the soft spot in zones like the Ward/Randle-El combination (by the way, Randle-El will look even better wearing burgundy and gold next season). Their abilities scare defensive coordinators so much, that Cedrick Wilson is actually passing as an NFL-caliber receiver. And Heath Miller is just a beast. I loved him when he was at Virginia. I was shocked when he fell to the 30th pick in the draft. This kid has All-Pro written all over him. The Seahawks have had a lot of injuries to the wideouts. Even though they are getting healthy for this game, Darrell Jackson and company aren’t going to scare a Pittsburgh defense that has already eliminated Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie. And as much as I would love to see Jerramy Stevens flatten Porter, it just ain’t gonna happen. Edge: Steelers

*This just in: Brett Farve has finally announced his retirement. Wait, did I say he’s announcing his retirement? I meant Brett Farve has announced that he will have a press conference about a press conference where he will announce whether he is retiring or not. I know this isn’t really worth a “this just in”, but the nation must know about Brett Farve, including how many times a day he relieves himself.*

Offensive line: At first glance, this would seem to be a rather large check mark in the Seattle column. And if we were just evaluating the left side of offensive lines, then Seattle would win hands down. It is hard to find a better guard-tackle combination than Steve Hutchinson and Walter Jones. But an offensive line consists of five players. Seattle’s is very very good. But the Hawks have a veteran quarterback and the best pure rusher in the league. You take away Hutchinson, and Seattle is probably still going to be 13-3. Pittsburgh’s offense has been doing it with smoke and mirrors all season. The Steelers have no consistent running back. Yes, the receivers are great, but without Roethlisberger finding them they wouldn’t make much of a difference. And why is Big Ben having such a great second half? Unlike the first half of the season, his offensive line is keeping him upright. It is said that an offensive line doesn’t get stats to show how good they are. But, whenever a team is devoid of offensive “stars” but still manages to pile up solid offensive numbers, it proves to me that the offensive line must be doing a marvelous job. A terrific offensive line can make average position players look good and good position players look great (And it can’t happen the other way around. A bunch of great position players can’t make an average line better than an average line. Look at the Lions. Better yet, don’t look at the Lions, you won’t like what you see). The Steelers have a bunch of good players that are playing great behind a sterling offensive line. Still, I can’t ignore Jones and Hutchinson. Edge: Seahawks…but it’s close


Seattle's immovable left tackle Walter Jones. Could he make the big block to send the Seahawks to their first Super Bowl win?

Defensive front seven: Porter being overrated not withstanding; Pittsburgh still has a killer front seven. Despite Seattle leading the entire league in sacks this season, I still think the Steelers’ defensive line and the pressure they allow their linebackers to get, is going to be the major difference in Super Bowl XL. Seattle’s offensive line hasn’t seen a defensive scheme like this all season. It’s going to be a rude awakening. Edge: Steelers

Secondary: Troy Polamalu. Edge: Steelers


Bill Cowher and his chin yell at Troy Polamalu. All you need to know is that Polamalu hits hard and has really long hair. That's all the media is going to tell you about him.

Special teams: The Seahawks kicking and punting games are much better than Pittsburgh’s. If the game comes down to a field goal contest, I’d much rather have Josh Brown from 45 yards away than Jeff Reed from 35 yards away. The Steelers must avoid getting into a kicking contest. However, Pittsburgh’s coverage teams, and their return teams are infinitely better than Seattle’s. The University of Pittsburgh’s coverage teams and return teams are infinitely better than Seattle’s (see vs. Washington Redskins, 1/14/06). Along with the advantage with the defensive front seven, the Steelers special teams units are going to make a key play or two to win this ballgame. Edge: Steelers

Coaches: Bill Cowher has been much more consistent than Mike Holmgren. That much is obvious. But Holmgren has the one thing that Cowher does not. A Super Bowl ring. Plus, this will be Holmgren’s third Super Bowl trip compared to Cowher’s second. Bill’s teams are 2-4 in AFC Championship games and 0-1 in Super Bowls. Not a great track record. In fact, it’s starting to look like ultimate choker Dan Reeves’ postseason resume. Until Cowher wins the big one, he will be a choke artist. It’s that simple. And I don’t like saying that because I really like Cowher. Overall, Cowher’s supporting staff is better than Holmgren’s. So that will help a bit. By the way, I think we can get rid of the theory that Holmgren is an average coach without Brett Farve. I think we had that theory backwards all along. Farve can’t win without Holmgren. Farve has won one Super Bowl. Sure that’s impressive. But Jim McMahon, Mark Rypien and Trent Dilfer have also won Super Bowls. Holmgren has a chance to be the only coach in the history of the NFL to win a Super Bowl with two different teams. So enough with that. Now where was I…oh yes, the coaches. Holmgren’s playcalling will keep the Seahawks in a game that they would probably lose by double-digits otherwise. Edge: Seahawks, but again, only slightly

*This just in: The Ravens, despite preseason predictions that just about gave them the automatic AFC bid to the Big Game, are not in the Super Bowl. Brian Billick will surely be fired as a result. No…he won’t? You sure? Well, then they’re certainly getting rid of Kyle Boller. No, they’re not doing that either? ‘Cause otherwise, they’re going 5-11 next season. And we all know Baltimore fans are fair weather. Remember what happened last time a Baltimore team went through a short stretch of losing…that team is now called the Indianapolis Colts. Los Angeles get ready!*

So there’s the breakdown. Pittsburgh is better on defense and special teams. It does appear that Seattle is better offensively. There is one other thing that the Seahawks have over Pittsburgh. While the Steelers want to win this game for Bettis and are determined to represent themselves, the Seahawks have dedicated themselves to representing the entire Pacific Northwest. They are fighting for recognition for an otherwise forgotten part of the country. The Seahawks want to win this game for their fans. What a novel idea! The Steelers don't care about their fans, they just want to win for themselves. Just listen to the way the two teams talked this week. I like a team that is carrying an entire region, not just a small sliver of Pennsylvania and boondocks West Virginia, on their backs. However, the Steelers are able to neutralize that advantage in this way: the Steelers act like they belong in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks have been seen all week with digital cameras and camcorders. They look like they’re on vacation. The Steelers came to Motown with a purpose.

So now to the pick. I’ve had my struggles at times this season. Those struggles have been worsened recently with my inability to pick the wild ACC basketball scene. Still, on the year, my prediction record for the NFL is 170-83, including a 5-3 record in the playoffs. That’s better than most. But furthermore, I’m unstoppable when it comes to predicting NCAA champions and Super Bowl winners. I’ve correctly picked the NCAA basketball champion the last six years before the tournament even began (That includes being the only one in my pool to have Syracuse winning in 2003. I’ll get back to this in March). I have also correctly predicted each of the last eight Super Bowls. That includes the Broncos’ upset over Green Bay. That includes the Patriots upset over St. Louis. The last Super Bowl I got wrong was Super Bowl XXXI (how was I supposed to know that Desmond Howard would pick that exact day to have the only decent game of his career). So I have a reputation to uphold. The Las Vegas line is four, which means that Vegas thinks Pittsburgh will win, but they aren’t sure. Whenever you have a line of four or less, I tend to bet against the popular pick. However, the Steelers are so overwhelmingly the popular pick, that even I can’t go against the grain. But here was the clincher for me. As I said, my playoff record this season is 5-3. My three losses you ask? I had Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver all winning their game against the Steelers. It took me a month to learn my lesson. In the case of Porter and his thug teammates, I hope I’m wrong. It just seems to me that Cowher will finally get his well-deserved championship. So for his sake, I hope I’m right.

Pick: Steelers 27, Seahawks 23