2007 NCAA Tournament: Final Four

I think it’s worth visiting my locked bracket again just to see how close to perfect it is. For clarification, I know that I’m in pools with some of you people who read this monstrosity, and the brackets I submitted for some of those are a bit different (like the ones on Facebook and Yahoo, where I have A&M making the finals instead of just the semifinals...it's called "hedging your bets"). However, the bracket done on ESPN was created to reflect my picks for this page and is the one I’ve been using since day one of the tournament.

As you can see, I wasn’t off by much. I had UNLV and Tennessee in the Sweet 16. I had Oregon making the Elite Eight. Three of my final four teams are where they’re supposed to be. I got the VCU upset over Duke. I had Wisconsin getting bounced in the second round. I made a few mistakes here and there, but overall, it’s been a pretty good tournament so far.

Now, in the individual picks I went 2-0 again in the regional finals. The overall record is now 47-13 for this tournament. I haven’t made an incorrect pick since Memphis beat A&M last Thursday. I would love to get to that 50-win plateau, so I’d have to go 3-0 the rest of the way. Let’s see…

FINAL FOUR
Georgia Dome
Atlanta, GA



Georgetown Hoyas (30-6) vs.
Ohio State Buckeyes (34-3)
So if you are like me, I’m sure you are already sick of hearing about Greg Oden and Roy Hibbert inside. We all get it. They’re very tall. As usual, ESPN and the other worthless sports outfits chose to be lazy and focus on the obvious matchup. They fail to realize that this game will probably come down to guard play.

I’ll humor everyone first. Let’s start by talking about the centers. Oden is much more athletic, more natural and more dominant on each end of the floor. If he wants to play hard, and if OSU makes a real effort to get him the ball, Hibbert won’t stop him. No chance. Oden is a bigger, stronger version of Tyler Hansbrough. And Hibbert had all kinds of trouble stopping him in the regional final. The odds are pretty good that Hibbert will have two fouls by the 10 minute mark of the first half or three by halftime. So that takes care of that analysis.


Quick, someone make another joke about how old Greg Oden looks. It's not like that joke's played out or anything.

The guard play is important because Georgetown could really struggle to guard both Mike Conley and Ron Lewis. If Georgetown pays extra attention to the inside game, and I figure they will, the guards for Ohio State should have the same open looks that the guards from UNC did. I hope that the Buckeye guards do a better job of knocking them down. If their season shooting average holds up, the Hoyas could be a ton of trouble.

Georgetown is going to need a big day from DaJuan Summers. This is a player that I’ve really started to like over the last month. He’s got the size of a power forward with the agility of a shooting guard. We can sit here and wax ecstatic about Hibbert and Jeff Green, but I’m starting to think that Summers and his versatility is the key for the Hoyas. Until he got going defensively, Georgetown was on course to lose to both Vanderbilt and UNC. He doesn’t need to score to be effective, although he can and when he does, the Hoyas are hard to stop. He’s a good passer, a good attacker and a great off-the-ball defender. Green and Hibbert may be the scorers and the finishers, but Summers is the engine of this team.

Georgetown, in many ways, is similar to Kansas. What is this team’s identity? Is Green the team’s star? If so, why did he rarely touch the ball in the first half against UNC? Does this team need to keep the game under 70? Do they need to outscore all their opponents? Jonathan Wallace takes the big shot one night, Green the other. Sometimes they go inside, other games they rely on outside shots. This is all going to cost them in the end. Add to the fact that Georgetown has survived three close calls in a row, and their breaks and second chances are running thin.

I know that I had Georgetown in my final game against UCLA. But I expected them to beat Texas A&M to get there. This game against OSU creates different problems for the Hoyas. Georgetown won their game over UNC because of one reason. The Tar Heels missed open shots at the end. That’s it. As I said before, if Ohio State gets the same looks that UNC did, they’ll win. Wallace and Jessie Sapp are going to have a world of trouble stopping Conley and Lewis. Look for both of them to put up at least 15 points each, Oden will have 20 and 10, and Hibbert will be riding the bench in foul trouble. I expect Green and Summers to both step up with 15-20 point performances of their own, as the Hoyas squeak by.
Pick: Georgetown 75, Ohio State 73




UCLA Bruins (30-5) vs.
Florida Gators (33-5)
For the past two months, even when Florida was losing, Al Horford looked invincible. It looked like the only way to beat Florida was to find someone, anyone, who could come close to neutralizing the Gators’ most important player. Talented big men from the SEC and across the country appeared powerless to stop him. And if they couldn’t stop him, they couldn’t stop Florida down the stretch in close games.

Then Florida played Oregon. While the Gators came away with the victory, those paying close attention realized that the Gators vaunted and much publicized size-advantage isn’t as crucial as it may seem. Oregon started four players that were 6-5 or smaller, and had no player on the roster that could even come close to matching Horford’s physical talents. However, Oregon stayed with Florida for about 35 minutes and only lost because Lee Humphrey had the game of his life beyond the arc.

This game proved that a team – a very small team no less – could hang with the Gators without having an answer for Horford. Fast forward to this weekend, and the Gators run up against another Pac-10 team that puts a similar lineup on the floor.

In last year’s championship game, Luc Richard Hassan Fofana Ekene Ibekwe God Shammgod Mbah-a-Moute and Lorenzo Mata had all kinds of problems stopping Horford and Miss Joakim Noah. Mata spent most of the game looking up at Horford or sitting on the bench with foul trouble and fed Mbah-a-Moute to the wolves. Since last April, Mbah-a-Moute has gained a year of experience, about 15-20 pounds, and is no longer a pushover inside. Mata hasn’t done much to improve his game, but if you’re Ben Howland, you hope that he won’t repeat the silly mistakes he made last season.

Even if Mata goes out early, all Howland has to do is copy the strategy that Oregon used. All he needs is a decent big man (Mbah-a-Moute will more than suffice) and three sharp-shooting guards, at least two of which aren’t afraid to drive to the hoop. Fortunately for Howland, he possesses those things. In the Collison-Afflalo-Shipp trio, Howland has three guards that can easily matchup with Florida’s outside combination. Collison and Afflalo are fearless off the drive. They should be able to re-create the success that Oregon’s Malik Hairston and Aaron Brooks had going to the hole last weekend. Shipp could be the difference maker in this game for UCLA. He would play the roll of Tajuan Porter, who had a horrible game against Florida on Sunday. If Shipp plays to his usual numbers, I think you’ll see the UCLA guards combine for at least 55-60 points. Of course, UCLA should try guarding Lee Humphrey. Just a wild suggestion.


The X-factor for the Bruins needs to be Collison - who has to shoot well from outside, attack the basket and play solid defense - if UCLA hopes to win

The player that will decide the game is Florida’s Corey Brewer. Along with Horford, Brewer has been the Gators’ star all season. He did not have a great game against Oregon. That may be one of the reasons that Oregon was able to keep it so close. If he comes back to form against UCLA, then it will be tough for the Bruins to quiet the Gators offense. If Brewer is a threat, then UCLA has to worry about him, Humphrey, Horford and Taurean Green in that order (notice how I didn’t mention Noah, who has been playing like crap for the better part of the last two months). That’s a tall order for any team, even one with the defensive capabilities of the Bruins.

I picked UCLA at the beginning of the tournament to win the whole thing. I won’t abandon them now. Mbah-a-Moute has to come close to matching Horford. Afflalo and Collison have to be electric, and UCLA needs clutch threes from Shipp. If the guards shoot well for UCLA, they should win this game, no matter how dominant Horford is.
Pick: UCLA 81, Florida 76

2007 NCAA Tournament: St. Louis/East Rutherford Regional Finals

Another perfect day. The 2-0 record makes me 45-13 overall. Seriously, why do they even play the game anymore? Just come here, see who I pick, and award a winner. It would be pretty simple.



#3 Oregon Ducks (29-7) vs.
#1 Florida Gators (32-5)
Edward Jones Dome – St. Louis, MO
Midwest Regional Final
Looks like these two teams will finally get a challenge. The Ducks have had the easiest road to the elite eight, getting a 14 seed, 11 seed and 7 seed. They put two of the three away easily and it’s looking like that struggle against the fake Miami was a fluke. The Gators road wasn’t much tougher, getting a 16 seed, a 9 seed and the weakest of the 5 seeds. They’ve struggled in all three games. They’ve played only one half of dominant basketball the entire tournament, and that was the second half against Jackson State. I guess when you are the defending champs and have NBA talent at almost every position, you can do that.

Before I get to this game, it’s time to point out another stupid moment in broadcasting. Comcast SportsNet, in all of its infinite wisdom (hopefully you are getting the sarcasm), decided that the DC area needed a daily 90-minute talk show dedicated to local sports. I’m sure that if you live around DC, you’ve seen the advertisements for WPL (why the Washington Post, one of the greatest papers in the world, agreed to sponsor this show is completely beyond my level of comprehension and would need a separate post on this page to fully try to explain it). WPL is a complete rip-off of several, more prominent, ESPN talk shows. According to inside sources, WPL was even going to have their own “Stat Boy” until someone with good sense finally realized that this is the United States and copyright infringement does exist and if they went through with this plan then ESPN would probably sue the company off the face of the planet. And according to millions of customers who subscribe to Comcast Cable, that would actually be a good thing.

Anyway, the host of the show (who will go unnamed here) was talking with the collection of sports writer “experts” about the NCAA tournament. Oregon came up. Various experts started questioning Oregon’s validity as a threat to go to the Final Four because they played in the mysterious Pac-10. The host, realizing this was his chance to seem important and knowledgeable, pounced on the opportunity to talk Pac-10. The host mentioned that because Comcast SportsNet has a deal with Fox Sports Net, that CSN shows a lot of Pac-10 games. More specifically, the station carries a fair amount of Oregon games. He said, and I quote “Oregon is no fluke…I’ve seen a lot of Oregon this year because our station carries their games. They are a good team.” Fair enough. Who would dare question that statement? He works at the network. I’m sure he watches the network. So who is to say that he hasn’t watched a bunch of Oregon games?

Well, one of the sports writers decided to call him on it. The reason he did so is unknown. Maybe the writer didn’t know about Oregon and was probing for more details. Maybe he wanted to find out the exact number of games that the host had seen. Maybe he did it because it’s not possible to have enough stories to make it worth it to create a decent 90-minute daily show about local sports and the writer called him on it because there was absolutely nothing else to talk about . Whatever the reason, the writer didn’t believe him. He asked the host “Oh yeah, name some of their players.”

The host, shocked that he would be questioned, took a moment to think about it. Then, with great confidence replied “They have that little guy…I can’t remember his name now, but he sure can shoot.” This was the rarely seen, but always enjoyable, “complete stupid moment in broadcasting.” Not only did the host look stupid, but the challenge made it clear that the guest panelist and the host weren’t getting along. Why else would he challenge him? It’s never good for the host and the guest experts to make each other look bad. That serves no purpose. It also proved that this show really doesn’t have much of a chance since they were talking about the Oregon Ducks on a show that is supposed to be based on local sports on only the fifth day of the show’s existence.

With that moment in stupid broadcasting behind us, it’s time to get back to the game. That “little guy” is Tajuan Porter, who scored 33 points in the win over UNLV. The 5-6 Porter may be one of the best shooters in the country. I just don’t get how someone so small can succeed like he has. And unlike that host, I have seen several Oregon games. Look, the dude is 5-6. As an opposing guard, you know he’s not going to drive to the hoop unless he has a clear lane. Why wouldn’t you step up and guard him tightly? He’s not going anywhere. Any player on your team can block his shot if he tries to go strong. Every guard in the tournament has at least five to six inches on him, if not more. Use the height to alter his outside shot, and if he does try and drive, than take your chances that there will be at least one teammate there to swat his shot away.

By now, the entire country outside of Comcast SportsNet has discovered Porter and his two fellow backcourt assassins Malik Hairston and Aaron Brooks. As I talked about two days ago, Oregon really has no legitimate inside presence and it is possible to bully them around in the paint. They may even be weaker inside than Virginia. Against Winthrop and UNLV, this wasn’t a problem for the Ducks because neither team possessed a true power forward or a center with consistent scoring ability. Oregon’s luck has run out as they have to face Florida. Al Horford and future WNBA player Joakim the Shemale Noah are going to have field days in this game. The Ducks do have a chance if they shoot as well as they have recently. I’ll be rooting for the Quack Attack. I’m just not picking them.
Pick: Florida 87, Oregon 76




#2 Georgetown Hoyas (29-6) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (31-6)
Continental Airlines Arena – East Rutherford, NJ
East Regional Final
You didn’t really think that the NCAA and CBS would allow Vanderbilt to win, did you? Not when they had a potential Georgetown-UNC matchup a tantalizing one round away. Not with the 25th anniversary of the historical 1982 championship game coming up. Not with a Georgetown team that has both a Ewing and a Thompson on it. So it was perfectly normal to see Vanderbilt get whistled for four illegal screens in the second half when that call is usually made once or twice a game on both teams combined. Or the multiple palming calls. Let’s not even mention the blatant traveling that wasn’t called before Jeff Green’s final bank shot. That was the most obvious 8 vs. 5 officiating job in the NCAA tournament since the Maryland-Dook and Arizona-Dook games in 2001. I guess Vanderbilt-UNC just doesn’t have the same ring to it.

The Hoyas somehow managed to get season win #29, with a bullet (and an asterisk), and get to face the Michael Jordan-less Carolina Tar Heels in what is being billed as a grudge match. Please don’t buy into the hype. 25 years is an impossibly long time for two teams that don’t regularly play each other to carry a grudge in any sport. In college sports, where the players recycle every four years, 25 years is an eternity. Heck, it’s two eternities.

Georgetown is living a charmed life right now. No matter how much they fall behind in the first half, it seems their opponent plays as lousy as possible in the second half. Roy Hibbert is back to his usual 20-minute disappearing trick again. Green has been ok, but not amazing. He’s certainly not playing like the Big East Player of the Year. The Hoyas’ saving grace, at least in the Vanderbilt game, was forgotten starter DaJuan Summers. While Green’s last second travel/shot won the game, Summers was the real star for the Hoyas.

Carolina has also been leading the charmed life. Michigan State grabbed a lead in the second half of their second round game and then fell apart. USC led 59-49 and then watched dumbfounded as the Heels reeled of 18 straight points. No one is playing exceptionally well for UNC. Their overwhelming depth has been the key factor. USC tried to out Carolina the Heels. For the first 30 minutes that strategy worked. The run and gun from USC seemed to surprise North Carolina and forced turnover after turnover. It worked right up to the point that USC got gassed. Then the Heels did what they always seem to do. They kept the game within striking distance, let their opponents tire, then stormed back to win.

The key matchup will be Tyler Hansbrough and Hibbert in the first 10 minutes of the game. The NCAA continues to have a hands-off policy when it comes to Hansbrough. You breathe on this guy, you get called for a foul. Hibbert is foul prone. If he has to sit early, and Green is the only inside player trying to stop Hansbrough, then Georgetown could have a long day. Even if Green is able to stop him, without Hibbert, it would be nearly impossible to stop Brandan Wright as well.

I like Georgetown in this game because they are much more cerebral than the Tar Heels. The Hoyas need to slow this game down, take away as many possessions as possible and force UNC into their usual bevy of mistakes. And John Thompson III has to be liberal with his substitutions. Even though Ewing, Jr., Jeremiah Rivers and Vernon Macklin are average players at best, all three will have to play at least 15-20 minutes a peace. Otherwise, Georgetown will suffer the same fate as Southern Cal. I like the Hoyas’ defense on the perimeter to shut down the UNC guard play. I like Green’s one-on-one matchup with the freshman Wright. And call it a hunch, but I think Hibbert will play pretty well against Hansbrough.
Pick: Georgetown 76, North Carolina 70

2007 NCAA Tournament: San Antonio/San Jose Regional Finals

If it wasn’t for Texas A&M, my brackets would be cleaner than John Thompson III’s head. I was a flawless 4-0 yesterday, pushing the overall record to 43-13. Now, to show that I’m not perfect, I’ll direct you to last March. I finished an ugly 1-6, and I’m still very bitter about that. A couple of friends keep reminding me. I’m waxing them in my pool right now, but I still want to finish strong.



#2 Memphis Tigers (33-3) vs.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (33-3)
Alamo Dome – San Antonio, TX
South Region Final
What’s the deal with Memphis? They’re not supposed to be here. Don’t they know that they were supposed to lose two rounds ago? I’ve been very impressed with the Tigers. Chris Douglas-Roberts has been sensational over the last three games. So has Joey Dorsey. Jeremy Hunt may be the best bench player left in the tournament. He starts on most teams.

This is the part of the post that I’m required by U.S. Law to mention that Memphis got their gaudy record by playing in a weak conference, their win over Texas A&M was their only good win in three months and they haven’t faced anyone like Ohio State all season. Now that we got that out of the way, can these Tigers beat the Ohio State Buckeyes?

The Buckeyes have proven to be anything but invincible. Falling behind by 10 in the second half to Xavier and by 20 against Tennessee should have sent all those who picked OSU in their pool into a slight tizzy. Some will say that those tests were good for the Buckeyes. After running through an easy conference themselves, Ohio State needed those games to wake them up. Those games also prove to the Buckeyes themselves and their future opponents that OSU is never out of a game, even if they fall behind big early. That is sure to instill some kind of confidence if Ohio State runs into another tough patch today or next weekend

However, the other way to look at the Buckeyes first half troubles, is that if they keep falling behind, they’ll eventually play a team they can’t come back against. All it takes is a 10-12 point deficit against a complete team (which Xavier and Tennessee weren’t). Memphis is good enough to hold a lead. So are Georgetown (if they themselves can stop falling behind in games) and North Carolina. Keep falling behind, and it’s only a matter of time.

That said, Ohio State is the better team in this game. Their guard play alone should be enough to catapult them to a win here. Memphis loves to work the ball inside, which will play right into the strength of Ohio State’s defense. First off, the guards have quick hands and will make any entry feeds difficult. Second, if the pass is completed, some guy named Greg Oden will be there to block the shot.

How does Memphis beat Ohio State? There are two ways to beat this team. One is to force Oden and Othello Hunter out to the perimeter in half court sets. Dorsey and Robert Dozier really don’t like playing outside more than Oden and Hunter do. So that strategy probably won’t work for the Tigers. The second way to beat this team is to turn the game into a track meet. North Carolina did this in their win over the Buckeyes. It is worth noting that Oden didn’t play in that game, but UNC was still able to tire out Hunter and Ivan Harris. I would assume that a similar pace would do the same Oden.

Defensively, Memphis needs to get their athletic big men out to the perimeter. It is clear that Thad Matta has made shooting threes a priority. Oden is only a secondary member in this offense. He’s going to get his points when OSU makes an effort to go inside. However, it’s the Buckeye guards that will kill you. Ron Lewis has had two outstanding games in a row. Mike Conley is just waiting to go off. Daequan Cook has been awful quiet off the bench and it’s only a matter of time before he gets involved. Memphis will have to avoid Oden when they have the ball, but must stop the guards first when they are on defense.

I think Memphis is just a bit too reckless on offense. They are going to have a lot of passes picked off and they are going to have a lot of shots blocked. I think Memphis’ strength of going inside plays right into Ohio State’s hands. The Tigers will make it interesting, but they’ll fail to get key baskets down the stretch.
Pick: Ohio State 76, Memphis 69




#2 UCLA Bruins (29-5) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (33-4)
HP Pavilion – San Jose, CA
West Region Final
I took UCLA to win the whole shebang, and the reason was kind of foolish. I got to this point in my brackets, and I couldn’t figure out who would win this game. I went back and forth on the two teams. Originally, I had UCLA, but then I switched to Kansas for several days before changing back to UCLA hours before the tournament began. I came to the conclusion that the winner of this game would win the national championship. I just couldn’t figure out who to take. I eventually went with the Bruins because of Kansas’ rocky tournament showings in the past two decades. That was stupid, I know. Those meltdowns and choke jobs mostly came with Roy Williams at the helm. Bill Self’s teams haven’t played well in recent tournaments, but some of the players who helped lose those games were recruited by Williams. This Jayhawk team is really Self’s first completely recruited team. But I saw the name Kansas, and had the typical knee jerk reaction as the voice in the back of my head told me not to take this team in a virtual tossup game.

I regretted the pick until Thursday. I saw UCLA easily dispose an overmatched Pitt team and also watched as Kansas struggled mightily with an even more overmatched Southern Illinois team. The one problem that everyone talked about when discussing Kansas reared its head. Who is the go-to-scorer on this Jayhawk team? The old saying that “if you even have to ask who the go-to-guy is, that team probably doesn’t have one” is true in this case. In a tight game against an inferior team, Kansas didn’t know where to turn, and only escaped because SIU had problems themselves on several late possessions and shooting free throws.

Bill Self is to blame for that problem. It is the coach’s job to put the ball in the hands of his best player (or one of his best two players) down the stretch in close games. But this is a squad that had a six game stretch when six different players led the team in scoring. Self has never forced his team, or any of his players, to take responsibility in close games. That’s why they lost to A&M at home. That’s why they nearly lost to Texas at home (and would have if Durant hadn’t gotten injured). That’s why they nearly ducked out early against the Salukis.

UCLA is not a team that Kansas is going to run off the court. The Bruins play the typical Ben Howland aggressive defense, and UCLA has the weapons on the perimeter to keep up if Kansas goes on a scoring spree. I think Josh Shipp and Arron Afflalo match up very, very well with Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush. Shipp, who will probably be forced to stop the dangerous Rush, is the best defender in the Pac-10, and better than anyone Rush has matched up against in the Big XII. Afflalo has a four inch height advantage on Chalmers. In two otherwise equal guards, that height advantage should be enough to give the edge to Afflalo. And if Chalmers and Rush somehow stop Afflalo and Shipp on the other end, then who on Kansas stops Darren Collison?

The X-factor is Julian Wright. UCLA is a bit weak inside. Luc-Richard Banana-Fana Mbah-a-Moute was supposed to take the next step this year for the Bruins and never did. He still puts up a respectable 8.6 points and 7.7 rebounds a game. But he isn’t the dominant player on both ends of the court that Howland must have envisioned at the beginning of the season. As for the other UCLA big man, Lorenzo Mata, the only thing I can picture when I think of him is the abuse he took in the final game against Florida last season. He was pawned by Al Horford and Shemale on almost every possession. This should open the door for Wright and Kansas if the Jayhawks decide to get Wright the ball and make him the go-to-guy in this game.

In a close game, don’t count on Kansas. I think the defense for the Bruins gets it done early, keeps the game close late, and allows their superior guards to take over and hit big shots in the end. Kansas won’t know who to turn to in the end.
Pick: UCLA 73, Kansas 70

2007 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 2

I went three and one last night to improve the record to 39-13. The only problem is that the “one” was Texas A&M getting bounced by a point because the Aggies suddenly forgot how to rebound. It didn’t help that Karl Hess, fresh off screwing up every ACC game he officiated, couldn’t keep track of the clock and cost the Aggies a decent shot at the end of the game. So I lost one of my Final Four teams. The good news is that UCLA is still alive, so the team I have winning it all can still get it done.

East Rutherford Region
Continental Airlines Arena

#6 Vanderbilt Commodores (22-11) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (28-6)
On paper, this game seems to heavily favor Georgetown. They are rolling off two easy wins, they have the best frontcourt remaining in the tournament, they face a team that struggles against physical squads and they’ve already beaten the Commodores this season 86-70.

But this game should be closer than it appears at first glance. The Hoyas, while playing well recently, haven’t really been challenged. The best team they played in the past month was Pitt, and seeing as the Panthers just made their annual early exit, I’m not sure how good those wins were. The Roy Hibbert-Jeff Green combination are great rebounders and defenders, but they struggle to score at times (they only combine to score 26-27 points a game). Hibbert especially has problems being consistent. He was non-existent in the first half of the Hoyas win over Boston College. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, has had tough times against physical, defense first teams. But, they did just beat a solid Washington State team to get to this game, and they did it by out-defending them. Plus, that 86-70 win for G’town came in November. It was the first game Vanderbilt played and they were missing two injured players.

Georgetown has lost games against smaller teams that are lightning quick. Old Dominion, Oregon, Notre Dame and Syracuse all fit that bill. If there is a way to beat the Hoyas, the blueprint isn’t to go inside and attack their Twin Towers. The way to do it is control the perimeter and then use blow bys. Georgetown’s backcourt is strictly average. Jessie Sapp and Jonathan Wallace are nice players. They certainly aren’t anything special.

I think that the 6-6 Shan Foster and 6-6 Derrick Byars create matchup problems for the Hoyas. They are too big for the guards to cover on the top of the key, but they are too quick to have Jeff Green come out to help. So therein lies the dilemma for John Thompson III. Do you bring taller, slower forwards outside to help on the perimeter while at the same time playing away from your interior strength? Or, do you take your chances that Foster, Byars and Dan Cage don’t hit their outside shots over smaller guards?

The problem for Vanderbilt is that they have no defensive answer for the Hoyas inside if Georgetown makes a concerted effort to attack the post. Ross Neltner and Ted Skuchas are soft inside for the Commodores. They are completely overmatched. Even though Kevin Stallings is the better coach, and Derrick Byars is the best player on the court for either team, the only way the Hoyas lose is if they try to make this an outside shooting contest.
Pick: Georgetown 70, Vanderbilt 65

#5 Southern California Trojans (25-11) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (30-6)
So how about that Pac-10? I’ve told you since December that the Pac-10 was the best conference in the country this year. They have three teams in the final 16, which is one more than the Big East and the Big XII, and is two more than the Big 10 and the ACC. And they were only a double overtime game away from having four teams qualify.

The most impressive performance of the tournament was not by conference heavyweights UCLA or Oregon, or by overachieving Washington State, but by Southern Cal. The meandering Trojans, a team that seemed to turn it on and turn it off from game to game, had it turned all the way on in their 19-point dominance of Texas. It was a game that sent USC to the Sweet 16, Kevin Durant to Memphis (the Grizzlies, not the Tigers) and should have sent Rick Barnes to the unemployment line.

The talent is there for the Trojans to pull an upset. They are playing a spitting image of themselves. They face a Carolina team that can be invincible if they are interested; frighteningly mortal if they aren’t. Neither team plays much defense. Neither team is all that interested in half court sets. USC wins this game if Carolina comes out like they did against Michigan State. I felt, and still feel, that UNC still has an extraordinary performance up their sleeve before they duck out for good. We haven’t seen it yet from Carolina, and I have a feeling this may be the game Carolina decides to run their opponent out of the gym. I’m just going with my gut instinct for this one.
Pick: UNC 88, USC 79

St. Louis Region
Edward Jones Dome

#5 Butler Bulldogs (29-6) vs.
#1 Florida Gators (31-5)
I guess you should take everything I say here with a grain of salt, because I’m still a little bitter from the Maryland game this past weekend. Butler is nothing more than a gimmick team. All they do is run the clock down and jack up shots. They were lucky to hit enough shots to beat Maryland. Like all gimmick teams, they’ll have a game that their little trick doesn’t work, and they’ll be blown out.

Maryland had to face two consecutive three-point jacking teams. It is time to move the three point line back. It has become way too easy for anyone with a jump shot to hit threes. That shot was designed to be a reward for real good shooters, not a strategy for otherwise average teams.

Mid-majors are playing one of two styles. One is the suffocating defense with non-existing offense style that Southern Illinois tries to perfect. The other is the Davidson-Butler-Winthrop style of hoisting up shots and simply hoping that enough fall. This is good enough to win a game or two, but certainly not enough to make it through the second weekend. And certainly not enough to be taken seriously. The NCAA needs to put a stop to this. It should take more than randomly firing up 20 or more threes in a game to win. I’m sorry, that’s just not basketball. It’s even worse than the boring Southern Illinois style. No passing, no real defense, no set plays. Just jack up threes. That’s why Gonzaga is always seen as a threat and these other schools aren’t. Gonzaga does more than just force up threes.

Here’s a prediction. Butler won’t hit 50% of their threes and they’ll be lucky to stay within 15 points against a team that can do more than just shoot.
Pick: Florida 82, Butler 65

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#7 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (30-6) vs.
#3 Oregon Ducks (28-7)
So who had this one? I believe that would be me! And finally, an exciting basketball game that doesn’t feature a media-darling powerhouse or mid-major.

We have two teams that have flown under the radar all season (but not on this page). They can both score, but they can both play a little defense when it’s needed. Wait, these teams play defense? They sure do. True, they both average in the high 70’s to low 80’s and don’t do a good job limiting the amount of possessions their opponents get. However, they can both play defense. UNLV went through a two month long stretch when they didn’t give up 30 points in the first half. Oregon has spent the last two games doing a good job stopping those dangerous three-point jacking mid-majors.

I expect this game to be close as long as UNLV can hang with Oregon’s shooting barrage in the first half. Don’t look for the Rebels to limit the Ducks to under 30 points by the break. Kevin Kruger, Wink Adams and Wendell White are all legitimate threats from outside, as the ousted Badgers found out last Sunday. The problem for UNLV is the lack of inside productivity on the offensive end. If the shots don’t fall early in the game, UNLV doesn’t have the ability to generate easy points inside. The Rebels, if they shoot poorly early, could be blown out in the first 20 minutes.

Oregon on the other hand, is only one of two teams in the NCAA tournament that has all five starters score in double-digits (the other was Maryland). So that means that the two Oregon forwards are contributing. For the Ducks, this is really a dream matchup. They are undersized against almost any other team. They have even been dramatically overshadowed by several mid-majors this season. Yet, they still managed to win 28 games. Now they face a team that they can not only outscore, but for a major change, they can outmatch inside. While Aaron Brooks, Malik Hairston and Tajuan Porter get most of the attention for Oregon, don’t be surprised if big man Marty Leunen has a field day and is the star for the Ducks in this game.
Pick: Oregon 86, UNLV 83

2007 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 1

Through the first two rounds I’m 35-13. So far, 11 of my 16 teams made it, 7 of my final 8 are alive as well (thanks a lot Rick Barnes) and all the Final Four picks are still intact. And I feel like I should get extra credit for being right about Wisconsin only being average all season long. I should also get credit for nailing the exact Kansas-Kentucky score on Sunday. You know what…I’m giving myself an extra win for that. Make that record 36-12. My game, my site, my rules.

Now we get to the games that are nearly impossible to pick because of the near equality of the two teams playing. I’ll put the ol’ record on the line and try to pick them anyway.

San Antonio Region
Alamo Dome

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#3 Texas A&M Aggies (27-6) vs.
#2 Memphis Tigers (32-3)
Memphis still hasn’t played a power conference team since December. That is an incredibly long time. Still, their win over Nevada was impressive in two ways. One, the Tigers proved they could play defense, especially on the perimeter. Marcelus Kemp and Ramon Sessions were non-factors. Two, their offense was able to execute their secondary break numerous times against big man Nick Fazekas. This was the first time Memphis was able to dunk and layup their way through a game against a decent opponent since the early months of the season. In wins against Gonzaga (in February) and North Texas, Memphis’ offense looked herky-jerky. But if any of you were able to see the game last weekend against the Wolf Pack, you saw the very fluid and exciting offense that John Calipari’s teams have been known for. That is a great omen for Memphis.

Now Memphis gets their toughest test, by far, in quite awhile. The Aggies are the best team that Memphis has played since last year’s regional final game against UCLA. The backcourt of Acie Law IV and Dominique Kirk will easily handle the Willie Kemp Antonio Anderson combination. Josh Carter and Chris Douglas-Roberts should neutralize each other. They are two completely different players. Carter is more of a perimeter shooter, while Douglas-Roberts goes inside. It is unlikely that either one of them will be able to stop the other on the offensive end. The key matchup for Memphis is on the inside. If Joey Dorsey and Robert Dozier use their athletic advantage and are able to break down the slower big men of A&M with the secondary break, then this game becomes very interesting.

If Memphis becomes undisciplined (the reason they lose most of the games they do), forced to play a perimeter game, and gets frustrated if A&M decides to slow it down, this game won’t be close. Conversely, if Joseph Jones gets into early foul trouble, the Aggies don’t have the talent inside to stop the dunk and layup show that Memphis can put on. And Jones has fouled out something like one in every four games during his college career.

The pick here is A&M. They are a chameleon of a team. They can win shootouts. They can win slow down, rugby-scrum games. They can win by pressing. They can win by playing straight up man-to-man. The only place they’ll be at an obvious disadvantage is if Jones is forced to sit and Dozier has his way at power forward. Other than that, the Aggies should be able to handle anything the Tigers throw at them.
Pick: Texas A&M 78, Memphis 71

#5 Tennessee Volunteers (24-10) vs.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (32-3)
After watching Tennessee’s first two games, I can’t remember why I picked them to lose to Ohio State. True, they have no answer for Greg Oden. Then again, what team does? Oden isn’t going to score more than 20-25 points. This game should come down to perimeter play and perimeter shooting, and in that regard, it will be difficult for the Buckeyes to keep up.

So will I change the pick I made in my locked bracket? Um, no. Ohio State does have height advantages at four of the five starting positions and on the bench. That has to count for something, right? Plus Ohio State, like all these miserable Big Ten teams, is able to get the game played at their pace. And pacing is everything for Tennessee. Virginia was able to slow Tennessee down at times with a constant changing of defenses. This is when the Vols struggled and allowed Virginia to get an eight point lead. When Virginia started pressing, playing man-to-man, and started speeding the game up, Tennessee went on a run that the Hoos never caught up from. I’m assuming that Thad Matta won’t make the same mistakes that Dave Leitao did. Look for Ohio State to shoot their way to a lead, then grind their way to a second half victory.
Pick: Ohio State 81, Tennessee 76

San Jose Region
HP Pavilion

#4 Southern Illinois Salukis (29-6) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-4)
The Salukis haven’t scored 80 points in a game all season. That is bad news when facing a team that scores 80 points with some regularity. That should give you some sense of how much of a disadvantage SIU is looking at in this game.

Now I hear of you yelling at me that I don’t know anything about SIU. “They’re one of the best man-to-man team defensive teams in the country. Ain’t no way anyone going to score 80 points on them. What is this nut job talking about? I bet he hasn’t watched one of their games this season.”

Look, I know all about SIU. They do play defense. I will even go as far as saying that they are one of the three best defensive teams in the country. The way that they play team defense with pride should be shown by every coach, on every team, in the country. However, SIU is doomed to die the same death that Wisconsin did. If you can’t score, you can’t win. Eventually a team is going to put up 70 (or more) against SIU and I don’t think they’ll have an answer. Their three biggest wins came twice against Virginia Tech and on the road at Butler. Neither of those teams has anywhere close to the ability that Kansas does.

Now, will Kansas have an easy time scoring 80 in this game? No, they probably won’t. Nor will they have to. Kansas plays excellent defense as well, as Bill Self’s Big 10 influence is finally starting to take effect. As long as Kansas puts 70 on the board, they’ll win this game going away.
Pick: Kansas 72, Southern Illinois 58

#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (29-7) vs.
#2 UCLA Bruins (28-5)
Speaking of defense…how about this game. The inventor of this ridiculous basketball theory of “overwhelming defense will win us any game no matter who we are playing because they can’t score 60 points or more against us” takes on the one person he directly taught that ridiculous theory to. Ben Howland spent several years building Pittsburgh on defense, defense, defense, the occasional jump shot and more defense. After bolting to UCLA, Howland left Jamie Dixon in charge at Pitt. Dixon has taken great defense and terrible to non-existent offense to a new level. Meanwhile, this defense only style of play has sprung up at places like Wisconsin, Southern Illinois, Washington State, Butler and elsewhere. Sure these teams all made the tournament. Sure, most of these teams will be repeat tournament visitors. And if just making the NCAA tournament is your goal, than this defense only style can get you to the tournament in a rather boring manner. On the other hand, none of these teams are ever going win six games in a row because THEY CAN’T SCORE.

So while this boring basketball keeps springing up around the country, Howland has ironically changed his modus operandi. While still sticking with his defense first idea, Howland finally figured out that he needed a couple of scorers to win games in the postseason. The result has been a trip to the finals last season and, if you look at my picks, another trip to the finals this year as well.

I have no problem with winning based on defense. I have no problem with coaches making that the staple and main trait of their team. But you have to be able to put up 70 points a game to win and go very deep in this tournament. Wisconsin couldn’t do that. SIU won’t be able to do it. Pittsburgh won’t be able to do it either. Other than Aaron Gray, who is completely dependant on others to get him the ball, Pittsburgh has no consistent threat to score at will and take over a game. UCLA has an outstanding trio of guards. They focus on and play defense first. But if they need to score, they can and they will. Howland finally understands that you must be able to put points on the board to win in March. Sounds simple, right? That is why UCLA will win this game. It looks as if the teacher still has something to show the student.
Pick: UCLA 65, Pittsburgh 56

2007 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 2

So some final thoughts on the Maryland game I guess. Mike Jones played a whale of a game. Forget the dropped pass in the last second. The odds of him hitting the shot weren’t good. The Terps shouldn’t have been that position anyway. The question I have is, after Jones hit four threes to begin the second half, why did he spend the next 5-7 minutes on the bench? I’ll never understand this. I’ve never understood why Jones sits for minutes at a time instead of getting quick blows. For four years, Gary Williams really screwed up Jones' playing time. No, I'm not saying fire Williams. I'm not one of these nuts out there that want to get rid of him because he can't get to the Final Four each year. But I think I'm allowed to criticize him if he does something wrong. I think he really wasted Jones' shooting ability and probably cost Maryland a few games by sitting Jones at the wrong times.

Yes, the charge call on Strawberry was awful. Not only was the Butler defender under the hoop (legal in college hoops…but still), he was in the air, not set and Strawberry was a making a play for a loose ball. I’m not going to blame the refs, even though the game was poorly officiated. The blame here has to rest on the shoulders of Ekene Ibekwe, who missed all four of his free throws and committed five turnovers including two absolutely stupid fouls. It’s a shame that his last game when like that, but he cost Maryland four points at the line and five possessions. That more than makes up for the three point deficit that the Terps were on the wrong side of.

Overall, a pretty good season. I thought Maryland would be a bubble team and would be fortunate to go 8-8 in conference play. The snapping of Illinois’ home court winning streak, the sweep of Dook and the home win against UNC were all things to be proud of. Thanks again to D.J. and Mike who were terrific student-athletes for four years. The future doesn’t look tremendous, but with Vasquez, Hayes, Gist and Osby all back next year, it at least looks bright and promising. More on Maryland to come later this month.

This is a quick turnaround for me, so I’m going to make this post a bit shorter. So far, the record is 30-10 and I still have 14 of my final 16 teams alive, and all of my Elite 8 teams are still playing. Day 2, Round 2, let’s get to it.

East Rutherford Region

#5 Southern California Trojans (24-11) vs.
#4 Texas Longhorns (25-9)
Spokane Memorial Arena – Spokane, WA
How they got here:
USC beat #12 Arkansas 77-60
Texas beat #13 NMST 79-67
When is someone in the Texas athletic department going to call Rick Barnes and scream at him to make sure Kevin Durant touches the ball on just about every possession. He only had 13 shot attempts against New Mexico State. That’s awful. A.J Abrams had 13 shots. D.J. Augustin had 12. Sure, they’re nice players. But when you have a kid like Durant, he should be taking a minimum of 20 shots per game. That isn’t unreasonable and it will allow the rest of the team to get involved. There are just way to many possessions when Durant doesn’t even get to touch the ball. This may be one of Barnes’ worst coaching jobs, and that’s saying something. There is no way that NMSU should have been able to hang around for 35 minutes. There is no reason that Texas shouldn’t be as good as Ohio State. Both teams revolve around one player. The difference is coaching. Thad Matta forces his team to get it to Oden. Barnes allows his guards to control the ball way too much. This will end Texas’ season eventually. USC is good team and they also compare to Ohio State. The Ohio State from 2006. USC is just like last year’s Buckeyes. Anything else from here on out will be gravy for the Trojans until their outstanding recruiting class comes in next year. And like last year’s Buckeyes, they’ll lose in the second round.
Pick: Texas 83, Southern Cal 74

San Antonio Region

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#5 Tennessee Volunteers (23-10) vs.
#4 Virginia Cavaliers (21-10)
Nationwide Arena – Columbus, OH
How they got here:
Tenn beat #12 Long Beach St. 121-86
UVA beat #13 Albany 84-57
Both teams were very impressive in the first round. Neither one played a worthy foe, but they were impressive nonetheless. Now I know that Long Beach State was one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament, but for anyone to score 121 points in this day and age of college basketball is frightening. That was the best Tennessee has played all year. That was the Tennessee team that everyone talks about being so good. They’ve only resembled that squad a couple of times the last few years. The key in this game isn’t going to be guard play. J. Sean SingleReynolds played very well against Albany. But the Tennessee combination of JaJuan Smith, Ramar Smith and Chris Lofton were just as good against Long Beach State. In fact, they were just as good as Singletary and Reynolds were during the regular season. The key is going to be the front court matchup. Virginia has nobody inside. Tennessee has Wayne Chism and Duke Crews. Both are legitimate scores and rebounders. They will be the difference. I’ve been telling you all season that Virginia would run into a team that possesses strong guard play combined with a couple of decent big men and that UVA wouldn’t be able to match baskets. Unless SingleReynolds both score 30, the Cavs won’t be able to keep up. Even then, Tennessee may get too many easy inside baskets.
Pick: Tennessee 93, Virginia 83

#7 Nevada Wolf Pack (29-4) vs.
#2 Memphis Tigers (31-3)
New Orleans Arena – New Orleans, LA
How they got here:
Nevada beat #10 Creighton 77-71 (OT)
Memphis beat #15 N. Texas 73-58
Both teams looked less than impressive in wins over inferior opponents. Nevada seems to be taking a page out of the Rick Barnes playbook. The Wolf Pack refused to get the ball to Nick Fazekas down the stretch and allowed Creighton to stay in the game. It also frustrated Fazekas enough that he was called for several silly fouls and was disqualified when the game went to overtime. I know I said that Nevada wasn’t a one player team. Marcelus Kemp and Ramon Sessions are very good players. That doesn’t mean that Mark Fox should allow his team to go several minutes without letting their best scoring threat touch the ball in the post. Meanwhile, Memphis put on a typical Memphis effort. 20 minutes of sleepwalking, unorganized and selfish basketball followed by 10 minutes of pure athleticism that sparks a game ending run, followed by another 10 minutes of bad basketball. Give me the team that tries hard.
Pick: Nevada 83, Memphis 80

St. Louis Region

#9 Purdue Boilermakers (22-11) vs.
#1 Florida Gators (30-5)
New Orleans Arena – New Orleans, LA
How they got here:
Purdue beat #8 Arizona 72-63
Florida beat #16 Jackson St. 112-69
The Gators continue to get the breaks. I thought the first three teams they played in last year’s tournament were easy. I thought it would be nearly impossible to get three opponents worse than the South Alabama/Wisconsin-Milwaukee/Georgetown (much, much worse than the Georgetown of this season) trio. However, after the gimmie opening round, the Gators lucked into a matchup with Purdue instead of the athletic Arizona. And as a result of Maryland’s loss, the Gators will embarrass Butler off the floor next weekend as well. This team won’t play anybody decent until the Final Four.
Pick: Florida 87, Purdue 68

#11 Winthrop Eagles (29-4) vs.
#3 Oregon Ducks (27-7)
Spokane Memorial Arena – Spokane, WA
How they got here:
Winthrop beat #6 Notre Dame 74-64
Oregon beat #14 Miami-OH 58-56
I’ve seen a lot of Oregon this year. They played their worst game of the season in the opening round and almost paid for it. They managed to get a reprieve and now get a gift game with Winthrop. I didn’t think the Eagles were going to beat Notre Dame, and I certainly don’t think they’ll beat Oregon. Look for the Ducks to get back on track here.
Pick: Oregon 77, Winthrop 72

#7 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (29-6) vs.
#2 Wisconsin Badgers (30-5)
United Center – Chicago, IL
How they got here:
UNLV beat #10 G. Tech 67-63
Wisconsin beat #15 Texas A&M-CC 76-63
Despite having a pretty soft subregional, this is no way you can convince me now that the Badgers have any chance at the Elite 8. Not after getting dominated for 32 minutes by the 15 seed. Two of the issues that allowed Wisconsin to come back on Friday won’t be available to them today. Turnovers and poor perimeter defense by the Islanders allowed the Badgers to make up the 18 point deficit. UNLV is the best defensive team in the MWC and they only average 11 turnovers a game. Fall behind to the Rebels, and there will be no coming back.
Pick: UNLV 65, Wisconsin 61

San Jose Region

#8 Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (31-4)
United Center – Chicago, IL
How they got here:
Kentucky beat #9 Villanova 67-58
Kansas beat #16 Niagara 107-67
Like the Indiana-UCLA game yesterday, don’t be fooled here by the names and the CBS hype. Kentucky is mismatched at every position on the court. 67 points against defense deficient Villanova will not get it done for the Wildcats in this game. If they don’t score in the 80’s, they won’t be close. Kentucky has shown no signs of being consistently able to score that many points.
Pick: Kansas 88, Kentucky 76

#5 Virginia Tech Hokies (22-11) vs.
#4 Southern Illinois Salukis (28-6)
Nationwide Arena – Columbus, OH
How they got here:
V. Tech beat #12 Illinois 54-52
SIU beat #13 Holy Cross 61-51
Oh my goodness, is this game going to be U-G-L-Y. Back in December, the Salukis beat Virginia Tech. But this was before Virginia Tech realized that they could compete night in and night out in the ACC. In close games like this one should be, you have to like the team that has the extra athletic ability to make a couple of big defensive stops. Zabian Dowdell should be able to neutralize Jamaal Tatum and Deron Washington should be able to slow down Randal Falker. Without those two having big games, I’m not sure how Southern Illinois can score more than 60. By the way, these new Coke commercials are pretty stupid. Take this one with the Virginia Tech fan who can never put the Coke can down during the game. I don't know what's more unbelievable; the fact that he drinks enough Cokes during the game to make up a pretty large Virginia Tech logo (I'm pretty sure that if you consume that many Cokes in 2 hours you would have no teeth and probably seizure out by halftime), or the fact that Virginia Tech even has basketball fans at all.
Pick: Virginia Tech 64, Southern Illinois 57

2007 NCAA Tournament: Patience Is A Virtue

#5 Butler Bulldogs (28-6, 13-3 Horizon) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (25-8, 10-6 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 2nd Round – Midwest Region
HSBC Arena – Buffalo, NY

How they got here:
Butler beat #12 ODU 57-46
UMD beat #13 Davidson 82-70

Man, there are some terrible basketball teams in this tournament. Worse yet, there are some terrible teams that are advancing in this tournament. Let’s start with the Virginia Tech-Illinois game. Just ugly basketball. Combined, the two teams scored 106 points. Three other teams scored more than that by themselves in the first round. Michigan State attempted a shut out on Marquette, holding the Golden Eagles to 0 points in the first eight minutes. Villanova only scored 58 against Kentucky’s Swiss cheese defense. Heck, even Oregon struggled in the first round, scoring only 58 points, but held on to win anyway. But it’s not just the average big conference teams. Oh no! How about that Holy Cross-Southern Illinois atrocity? Or GW scoring only 44 points on 28% shooting against one of the tournament’s worst defensive teams? Seriously, the committee has to start using points per game as a tie-breaker to determine which teams get in and out of the Big Dance. I don’t think Drexel would have beaten Louisville. But they probably could have scored more than the 58 points Stanford put up.

The most embarrassing performance, not surprisingly, went to the Wisconsin Badgers. With an offense resembling something you’d find in a 50-year old rec-league game, the Badgers managed only 19 points in the first half against juggernaut Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. This disgrace of a two seed, possibly the worst two seed in the history of this tournament, was outplayed for 32 minutes before the refs finally assisted the Badgers to a victory. Even in previous 15 over 2 seed upsets, the 2 seed was never outplayed for the overwhelming majority of the game. I don’t think (I’ll have to go back and check) that any other two seed has trailed by 18 at any point of the game against a 15 seed.

Speaking of bad basketball, has anyone seen Duke lately? I mean, they were right here a second ago. What happened to them? Back in Durham already? Really? Great showing guys! You know, usually when you are in a tie game, with less than 10 seconds to go, you want to make some sort of effort to cover the guy with the ball. May want to work on that in the offseason

As much as I made fun of Buffalo in previous posts, I guess I have to start liking the city. The Terps advance and the Dookies are put safely away back on their butt-ugly campus for another season. Ratface, do yourself a favor and keep your boys away from the lacrosse house parties. Just a thought.

One other terrible game was the 57-46 shootout between Butler and Old Dominion. It was only 20-19 at half before both teams really caught fire. If this mid-major fad is the next wave of college basketball, count me out. Unfortunately, Maryland will be subjected to at least 40 more minutes of mid-major basketball. Unlike Thursday, the Terps will actually have to play against a team that uses patented mid-major style.

Davidson, as we found out, is not your typical mid-major. Yes, they like to jack up threes on almost every possession. And sure, they look for inside baskets about as often as Ratface goes through an entire game without cursing at the refs. However, unlike most mid-majors they do all of that quickly. The shot clock is never a factor. Seriously, there were times that Davidson looked more like Maryland than Maryland did. Not coincidently, it was a very exciting game. Davidson was much better than I thought, and this kid Curry is eventually going to trip someone up the tournament. He should get three more chances. It would help if Davidson attempted any inside shots. A half decent forward would do the trick.

For the first 25 minutes, it was if Maryland forgot there was a perimeter that needed defending. They weren’t burned badly because the possessions were so quick. Maryland had plenty of opportunities to answer back. Do that against Butler, and it will be a much different story.

Butler doesn’t do all that much well. They aren’t a good offensive team. They are beatable on defense. What they are able to do, in almost 100% of their games, is dictate tempo.

Butler will use the majority of the shot clock. Their stagnant defense also forces their opponents to work the clock. Don’t mistake this for a great defense. It isn’t. The opportunities are there for easy baskets if a team is patient enough and crisp with their passes. What Butler does do well is cut down on overall possessions and force sloppy teams into easy turnovers.

Butler is led by guard A.J. Graves. The 6-1 junior, who looks like he should be in the Hills Have Eyes 4, is a good shooter from the perimeter. He is also one of the best free throw shooters in the country. But he can’t create off the dribble (which lowers his free throw attempts). And at 6-1 (which is really closer to 5-10, 5-11), he is liability against taller guards. Maryland possesses a lot of taller guards.

Butler is even smaller than Davidson. Their tallest starter is 6-6 Brian Ligon, who only averages 3.3 ppg and 3.1 rpg. Their best rebounder is 6-0 guard Mike Green with nearly 6 a game. Butler doesn’t need a lot of rebounds, because they have fewer possessions, which lead to fewer shots and fewer misses. But if they’re off, they aren’t going to get second chance opportunities. Seriously, a 6-0 guard leads a division one team in rebounding. They had better shoot 50% or they are going to be in a world of trouble.

The Bulldogs bring two 6-7 guys off the bench, including Pete Campbell. Campbell single-handedly beat ODU with three threes in two minutes. The Terps may want to guard him. They may also want to stick on Graves. Hopefully, they’ll do this a lot better than they stuck on Curry. If they don’t, the Bulldogs will build themselves a three or four possession lead faster than Kevin Harlan can say “Right between the eyes.”


Because of typical foul trouble in the first round, this man should be well rested.

I’m not as worried about this game as much as I was about the Davidson one. I hope and believe the close call against the Wildcats woke the Terps up. The only thing that concerns me is the pace this game is going to be played at. Maryland may say they want to speed the game up. They may try to do it. It’s not going to happen. Butler forces EVERY team they play to adapt to their slow down style. Tennessee, a team that just put up 121 points, was forced into Butler’s tempo earlier this season. Notre Dame, Indiana, Gonzaga and slew of other big time schools have all been slowed down by the Bulldogs. We all know that there are plenty of times that Maryland struggles in half court games. Plus, the Terps can expect to see a couple of different zones, which is something Davidson did not throw at them. They struggled when Miami did that to them.

Here is how Maryland wins. First, guard the perimeter. If Butler scores inside, then so be it. But their inside game is much worse than Davidson’s. Take your chances. I would put Strawberry on Brandon Crone, Vasquez on Graves and Jones on Mike Green. It will be interesting to see who Maryland puts on Campbell (Gist? Certainly not Ibekwe). Second, be patient. I know the Terps love to get up and go. But there are going to be plenty of times when Maryland is going to find itself bogged down in long possessions. This doesn’t mean the Terps have to use all 35 seconds of clock. This doesn’t mean pass the ball around the perimeter and settle for threes. It means be careful where you pass the ball, because Butler has quick hands. Make sure passes inside. No forces. Because of that, it wouldn’t kill Maryland to use more Hayes at point guard in this game. He is the much better passer between the two point guards. And, if you have a decent look, take it. It doesn’t pay to be unselfish against Butler. You may only get one decent look at the basket every time down the court. Finally, do not commit any stupid fouls. I’m talking to you Mr. Ibekwe. Butler is the fifth best free throw shooting team in the country. They don’t drive a lot, they don’t go inside a lot. There won’t be much need to foul. So don’t do anything stupid on the perimeter. Guard them closely, but do not foul a bunch of jump shooters.

That said, Maryland is going to force mismatches everywhere on the court. Even if they can’t get out and run, Maryland owns size, speed and strength advantages at every position. EVERY POSITION. I’ve seen supermodels with more weight than this ugly little kid Graves. Their average height is 6-4. That’s almost a full three inches below the NCAA average. Basketball is a big man’s game. Get the ball up, play above the rim, and don’t throw stupid bounce passes. Hopefully the good Terps show up today.

Maryland 69
Butler 62


2007 NCAA TOURNAMENT

The uninteresting first round is over. I went 25-7. That is much better than the 22-10 mark I had last year. Still, I find my self only in the top quarter of most of my pools (and unlike Rick Neuheisel, I’m allowed to gamble). So, I’m not all that pleased. However, all of my Sweet 16 teams are still alive. I’m very happy about that. Let’s continue.

East Rutherford Region

#9 Michigan State Spartans (23-11) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (29-6)
Lawrence Joel Coliseum – Winston Salem, NC
How they got here:
MSU beat #8 Marquette 61-49
UNC beat #16 Eastern Kentucky 86-65
Let me start off by saying that it would not surprise me for North Carolina to lose any game from here on out. Nor would it surprise me if they won every remaining game by at least 15 points. They are the best team in the country when they want to be. However, they only want to be the best team half the time. Again, this is another Connecticut waiting to happen. There are just too many players worried about their draft status. There are still to many prolonged periods of ball-hogging and disappearing defense to consider the Tar Heels one of the four or five best teams remaining. North Carolina does benefit here in getting a team it can outscore easily. Michigan State could only manage 61 against a Marquette team missing their best player. The 49 points they surrendered against the Eagles look good, until you factor in the 15 points a game that Marquette was missing in Jerel McNeal. Plus, Michigan State had to grind out a 40 minute win while UNC was able to rest their starters and had an easy time against EKU in the first round. Not that it matters anyway. UNC is too deep, and too well rested, to lose this game. Drew Neitzel can’t score 50 points himself.
Pick: North Carolina 79, Michigan State 63

#6 Vanderbilt Commodores (21-11) vs.
#3 Washington State Cougars (26-7)
ARCO Arena – Sacramento, CA
How they got here:
Vandy beat #11 GW 77-44
WSU beat #14 ORU 70-54
In my bracket, I have Washington State advancing to the Sweet 16. However, after watching them play ORU, and the Commodores play a mystery team wearing George Washington uniforms, I’m starting to regret that pick. I really wish I could go back and change the brackets. I could change the pick right here, if I wanted to. Again, this blog synopsis isn’t meant to be locked. I’m going to stick with the Cougars, and here is why. Vanderbilt is very much like Maryland. They like to get up and down the court as much as possible. WSU is much like Butler. They slow the game down as much as possible. However, WSU is a better scoring team than Butler, so they have both great defense and an above average offense. Plus, WSU is used to playing offenses like Vandy’s in the Pac-10. In fact, every team they play in the Pac-10 is a run and gun team except for UCLA. Vanderbilt is not used to seeing the kind of defense that Wazzau plays. At least not in the SEC East against Florida, Tennessee or Kentucky. Washington State has height advantages at four of the five positions. They have two defensive stoppers (Derrick Lowe and Kyle Weaver) to shutdown the two scoring threats for Vanderbilt in Derrick Byars and Shan Foster. I’m nervous about this pick, but I’m sticking with it.
Pick: Washington State 71, Vanderbilt 66


Do you knew Derrick Byars? Best player this side of Kevin Durant.

#7 Boston College Eagles (21-11) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (27-6)
Lawrence Joel Coliseum – Winston-Salem, NC
How they got here:
BC beat #10 Texas Tech 84-75
G’town beat #15 Belmont 80-55
This matchup is strange. Usually the committee doesn’t allow conference teams to play each other. Oh that’s right. BC is now in the 23-team ACC. Georgetown remains behind in the 38-team Big East. All you need to do is look at the rosters for this one. Georgetown has Big East player of the year Jeff Green, who is playing some of the best basketball in the country. Throw him in the mix with Roy Hibbert, Jonathan Wallace and Jesse Sapp, and you have a formidable frontline, backcourt and several scoring options. Boston College has ACC player of the year Jared Dudley, who did not play well down the stretch of the season. He’s surrounded by Sean Marshall, Tyrese Rice and John Oates. The frontline is shaky, the backcourt is good but unpredictable, and unless Rice gets hot, there are only two scoring options. It’s not often I pick against the ACC when they matchup against the Big East. I even took BC last season over a favored Villanova team. But BC was fortunate to get past Texas Tech. They’re going to have to step up their game tenfold. I don’t think they can do it.
Pick: Georgetown 74, Boston College 65

San Antonio Region

#9 Xavier Musketeers (25-8) vs.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (31-3)
Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY
How they got here:
Xavier beat #8 BYU 79-77
OSU beat #16 CCSU 78-57
I was impressed by the Muskies. They were dominated by BYU in the first half of their game and fought through it. Drew Lavender, who seems like he is in his 7th year of eligibility (first with Oklahoma and now with Xavier), took over that game. He used to do that for Kelvin Sampson. Now the Lavender-Justin Doellman inside-outside combo looks like a legit scoring duo for Xavier. Now the competition is ratcheted up a few more notches. Can Doellman score 23 points against Greg Oden? Can Lavender, who is only 5-7, possibly guard 6-2 Mike Conley Jr.? I think the answer in both cases is no. If Doellman is shut down by Oden, and Lavender has a tough time against larger and quicker guards, the only other scoring threat is Stanley Burrell. And he looked pedestrian against BYU. I think Thad Matta gets a relatively easy win against his old school.
Pick: Ohio State 78, Xavier 65

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#6 Louisville Cardinals (24-9) vs.
#3 Texas A&M Aggies (26-6)
Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY
How they got here:
Louisville beat #11 Stanford 78-58
A&M beat #14 Penn 68-52
The Aggies achieved nothing on Thursday other than getting the blood pressure of the Predictor up a little bit. Tie game against Penn with 10 minutes to go? What in the name of Billy Gillispie is going on here? We all know Acie Law IV is a great player. But the reason I picked the Aggies to get to the finals is because Law is only one of a multitude of weapons. Other than Dominique Kirk, it looked as if the rest of A&M was interested in watching Law carry the team to victory. Joseph Jones has to play more than 24 minutes. Josh Carter can’t go 1-8 from the floor. The bench can’t get outscored by Penn’s bench 14-7. Those kind of performances from here on out are going to get the Aggies eliminated. A&M will be up against it today, as they face the Louisville Cardinals in what will basically be a true road game. Louisville embarrassed Stanford and the selection committee by effectively ending the competitive part of their game with the Cardinal in the first five minutes. Other than Tennessee, no team looked better in the first round. Louisville is much like a Pac-10 team. When they are on, and when they are shooting well from the outside, they are extremely tough to beat. However, when their outside shots don’t fall, their offensive production can drop anywhere from 20-30 points. David Padgett is more of a European style big man than a typical 6-11 power forward. The Cardinals do not possess a dominant inside player. This is a game where Law needs to feed the ball inside to Jones and Kavaliauskas. Those two should have an easy time inside. Law should be able to shut down Edgar Sosa, one of Louisville’s better shooters. The X-factor here is Derrick Caracter. He would be starting if not for infighting with Rick Pitino. If he comes off the bench and gets his 9-10 points a game, than it’s going to be hard for the Aggies to outscore Louisville. If he is held in check, and Law neutralizes Sosa, then the Cardinals are going to be forced into a half-court game with Padgett as their only scoring option. Pitino has never coached the most patient of teams, and a half court game would spell doom for the Cardinals.
Pick: Texas A&M 75, Louisville 70

San Jose Region

#11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (28-6) vs.
#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (28-7)
HSBC Arena – Buffalo, NY
How they got here:
VCU beat #6 Duke 79-77
Pitt beat #14 Wright St. 79-58
The best part about Dook losing is that it was the only real upset in the first round. So more attention was paid to it than usual. It was a great game. Dook never put VCU away, and in typical Dook fashion, couldn’t hold on to their double-digit lead. That game was a microcosm of Dook’s season. Except Dook lost to a team that has half of the talent, and a very small fraction of the spending money than they do. Now, I correctly picked VCU to win and I had them matching up with Pitt. And I had Pitt moving on. But that was in my locked bracket. I’m changing that pick here. The Maynor/Walker/Pellot-Rosa combination matches up very well against Pitt. No one inside should be able to stop Aaron Gray, but I don’t think it will matter. This is the second round after all. This is usually where Pitt and Jamie Dixon check out.
Pick: VCU 72, Pittsburgh 68


DAGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!

#7 Indiana Hoosiers (21-9) vs.
#UCLA Bruins (27-5)
ARCO Arena – Sacramento, CA
How they got here:
IU beat #10 Gonzaga 70-57
UCLA beat #15 Weber St. 70-42
Don’t be fooled by the CBS hype. This game will not be as good as advertised. While UCLA continues to build on their tradition, Indiana is just a shell of its former self. This may be the second round’s biggest mismatch. Other than D.J. White over Lorenzo Mata, Indiana is overwhelmed everywhere else on the court. There is no way the average Indiana backcourt will be able to stop the Darren Collison, Arron Afflalo and Josh Shipp trio that the Bruins possess.
Pick: UCLA 76, Indiana 60

2007 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 2

One half of the first round in the books. I went 12-4, which is ok. Nothing special. I did almost pick several scores right on the money. I said Maryland would win 82-73 (they won 82-70) and Georgetown would win 75-55 (they won 80-55). Plus I picked the VCU upset. So let’s see how the other half plays out.

East Rutherford Region

Spokane Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA
#13 New Mexico State Aggies (25-8) vs.
#4 Texas Longhorns (24-9)
Against any other 4 seed, I would have really considered NMSU to pull the upset. These guys had to bang with Nevada and Utah State, and the WAC isn’t as weak as people make it out to be. The RPI of 69 and the solid schedule strength show how good the Aggies really are. Reggie Theus is a coach on the rise, and has resurrected a dead program instantly with a bunch of transfers. But the Aggies are playing the traveling circus known as the Texas Durants. Contrary to popular belief, Texas won’t go as far as Kevin Durant takes them. They’ll only go as far and as long as Rich Barnes delays his annual tournament choke job. It won’t happen here, as NMSU isn’t too fond of playing defense, something that could be a problem when facing a player that averages 25 points a game.
Pick: Texas 88, New Mexico State 75

#12 Arkansas Razorbacks (21-13) vs.
#5 Southern California Trojans (23-11)
Unlike Stanford, I have a large problem with Arkansas making this shindig. NO ONE had Arkansas making the tournament. Not even Joe Lunardi. Well, he didn’t until he was tipped off to their inclusion an hour before the selection show started. He quickly changed his bracket to include both the Razorbacks and Cardinal just before the show began. No doubt he will count it towards his “outstanding” record. Lunardi, your job is to predict the bracket using stats and assumption. Not based on inside information. If you have information that one team is going to make it, it kind of takes the predicting out out of that equation. Not counting those two schools, Lunardi only got 29 out of 34 teams correct. Another poor showing. Let’s not hear any more crap about missing only 7 teams in 6 years, or something like that. He missed three last year and five this season. Even I, without any inside information whatsoever, did better than that (missing two last year and three this season). So no more of this guy please. And no more of Arkansas, who possess only two solid wins over Alabama and SIU.
Pick: Southern Cal 84, Arkansas 69

San Antonio Region

Nationwide Arena
Columbus, OH
#13 Albany Great Danes (23-9) vs.
#4 Virginia Cavaliers (20-10)
I had serious commentary about this game, like how both teams were over seeded by at least two positions. Then I saw that Albany’s mascot is basically Scooby Doo. How can anything I say compete with that?
Pick: Virginia 86, Albany 68

#12 Long Beach State 49ers (24-7) vs.
#5 Tennessee Volunteers (22-10)
Put away the abacuses. If any of you have Friday afternoon off, and enjoy a good old-fashion shootout, then make sure you tune your Direct TV to this one. The 49ers are an intriguing team. Out of all the mid-majors, LBST has the best offense running away. With four of the five starters averaging at least 12 points a game, this team can score with any of the power conference teams. However, because this team likes to hoist shots up in rapid fashion, their defense suffers drastically. Because the 49ers can score, I probably would have picked them against the majority of five seeds. But whoa! Keep your shirt on, Bruce. The 49ers play one of the few teams that can outscore them. Tennessee plays very similar to LBST and does it while playing in a tougher conference. Yes, the 220 strength of schedule for Long Beach doesn’t give me much confidence in them for this game. There’s just so much drama in the L-B-C…
Pick: Tennessee 94, Long Beach State 83

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA
#15 North Texas Mean Green (23-10) vs.
#2 Memphis Tigers (30-3)
Like last year, Memphis is one seed too high. In fact, it’s hard to argue that Memphis should even be a three. They’ll seem like a one seed in this game against a North Texas team that really doesn’t do anything particularly well.
Pick: Memphis 90, North Texas 67

*The Predictor Co-Game of the Day*
#10 Creighton Blue Jays (22-10) vs.
#7 Nevada Wolf Pack (28-4)
Nevada is not a one player team. They are not a Texas type team. Nick Fazekas is a great player. But it’s time to learn the names Ramon Sessions and Marcelus Kemp. They are both very capable scorers. Nevada may have one of the best 1-2-3 scoring punches in the country. Yes, their defense is lax at times. Yes, their coach is a little bit of a psycho. Yes, their bench is a bit thin. If they get hot, they have the potential to not only win a couple of games, but possibly have a shot at the Final Four. Creighton is also a dangerous team, with three players averaging in double digits. I don’t think they have the answer inside for Fazekas, and their methodical guards can’t keep up with Kemp. Sessions is the X-factor. If he scores in the 14-15 points range, and keeps his turnovers to a minimum, then how can Creighton stop all three big names? Unless Nate Funk really brings in the noise, this game has blowout potential.
Pick: Nevada 87, Creighton 78

St. Louis Region

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA
#16 Jackson State Tigers (21-13) vs.
#1 Florida Gators (29-5)
The only real question here? Do you like Florida by 20, or by 30?
Pick: Florida 85, Jackson State 55

#9 Purdue Boilermakers (21-11) vs.
#8 Arizona Wildcats (20-10)
What, did the committee just pick two of the biggest tournament underachievers and throw them together? Is this there way of showing pity? One of these teams has to win. Arizona’s failures have been obvious for the better part of the past two decades (save for 1997). No one west of Ratface does less with more talent than Lute Olsen. On the other hand, you have to go back to the mid-90’s and the days of Glen Robinson to recall the several times Gene Keady’s comb over couldn’t will the Boilers into the Final Four. It’s been awhile since Purdue choked in the NCAA’s, and you know how little respect I have for the Big 10. So this one seems pretty easy to pick.
Pick: Arizona 79, Purdue 71

Spokane Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA
#14 Miami-Ohio Redhawks (18-14)
#3 Oregon Ducks (26-7)
The Redhawks are a nice story. They survived the cannibalistic MAC on a wing, a prayer and a bank shot. They weren’t one of the top three teams in the conference, but succeeded in the tournament, and that’s all that counts nowadays. They’re a nice story that will end in the first round at the feathers of the high-scoring Ducks.
Pick: Oregon 86, Miami-Ohio 64

#11 Winthrop Eagles (28-4) vs.
#6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-7)
It’s beyond me how a 24-7 big conference team with a 31 RPI is seeded below other teams with worse records (namely Virginia) and then is the odds on favorite to get upset in the first round. Now I’m not a big fan of the “if A>B and B>C than A has to be >C” theory, but Maryland crushed Winthrop right before they lost to Notre Dame. It’s never a great idea to go with the popular upset pick, because it usually doesn’t happen.
Pick: Notre Dame 80, Winthrop 73

United Center
Chicago, IL
#15 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (26-6) vs.
#2 Wisconsin Badgers (29-5)
No one irks The Predictor like the Badgers, who have been imitating a decent team all season. Fortunately for everyone outside of Madison, March doesn’t allow frauds with inflated records that play in sub-standard power conferences to waltz into the Final Four. Sorry, this team won’t make it further than the Sweet 16. Whether it’s Oregon, Georgia Tech or UNLV, this team is going down somewhere. The last decent win they had was in early January over OSU. Since then, they’ve lost twice to same Buckeyes, who weren’t playing all that well in January to begin with. Meanwhile, the Islanders continue their great story. 10 years ago there was no basketball program at TAMU-CC. They’ve gone from D-1 transition school to conference member (which is not as easy as you would think) to conference champion to NCAA tournament bid. This is a team that in the past few years has taken out teams like Mississippi State, Florida State and UTEP (with Billy Gillispie). Wisconsin, by the way, is only a year removed from their baffling loss to North Dakota State. The last Big 10 champion, Iowa, was taken out in the first round by 14th seed Northwestern State. Northwestern State was the team TAMU-CC beat to win the Southland Conference. Oh-oh! Wisconsin is a team that is going to lose early in the tournament because they can’t score. Even with Alondo Tucker (who is a good player but certainly not All-American worthy) the Badgers still struggle to crack 60. They are never going to blow out an inferior opponent, and average teams will always have a chance to beat them if they go on a scoring spurt in the final minutes. Now, I’m not going to call it, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Islanders surprise the Badgers right here.
Pick: Wisconsin 63, Texas A&M-CC 56

*The Predictor Co-Game of the Day*
#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (20-11) vs.
#7 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (28-6)
Not since Jerry Tarkanian was munching on a towel and blowing out the Dookies has Vegas seen a team like this. In the rough Mountain West, UNLV was the class of the league. I really liked the Rebels chances of making a run past the Sweet 16 until I saw them get bullied inside at Provo by BYU. UNLV is a very small team, with their tallest starter at 6-8 (although the Rebs have the MWC leader in blocks, Joel Anthony, coming off the bench). They do have two guards who are 6-6, but the front court may be the smallest in the tournament. That really concerns me with tall, lanky and athletic Georgia Tech on the docket for the opening round. On the other hand, Tech never had any momentum during the regular season until the last few games. Then Wake Forest killed it off in the ACC tournament. Tech has never come together like it should have. I’d rather pick an overachieving conference champion than an underachieving .500 conference team.
Pick: UNLV 83, Georgia Tech 81 (OT)

San Jose Region

United Center
Chicago, IL
#16 Niagara Purple Eagles (23-11) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks
Want more proof that I was right about my statement earlier this season that Maryland should stop playing MAAC teams? How about the committee thinking that Niagara, the MAAC champion, was so bad that they needed to be relegated to the play-in-game. Seriously, the CAA is right down the road. If we need to play mid-majors, let’s play them.
Pick: Kansas 91, Niagara 66

#9 Villanova Wildcats (22-10) vs.
#8 Kentucky Wildcats (21-11)
Why not fire Tubby Smith? Seriously, what has he done? He won a national champion with borrowed players, and turned Kentucky from one of the top three schools in the country to another average BCS school. He hasn’t been to a Final Four since that championship in 1998 with Rick Pitino’s players. Great coaches have been fired for less. He seems like a nice guy. I even met him while staying at the Kentucky team hotel during the Terps trip to the Syracuse regional in 2002. Being a nice guy doesn’t necessarily mean you are a good coach. He’d be a perfect coach for a Colorado, California or even a Clemson (hint hint). But he doesn’t fit at Kentucky. Never has.
Pick: Wildcats 79, Wildcats 73
(Hahaha. Seriously though, Villanova wins)

Nationwide Arena
Columbus, OH
#13 Holy Cross Crusaders (25-8) vs.
#4 Southern Illinois Salukis (27-6)
The College of the Holy Cross is another one of those questionable seeds. This is certainly not a 13 seed along the previous lines of Vermont or conference buddy Bucknell. This is, at best, a 15 seed. Somehow they not only get a cushy seed, but a team that is very beatable in the first round.
Pick: Southern Illinois 68, Holy Cross 58

#12 Illinois Fightin’ Illini (23-11) vs.
#5 Virginia Tech Hokies (21-11)
Now that Virginia Tech no longer has to face NC State, this team could actually do some damage. The media hits the nail right on the head when they talk about the Hokies. They could be a Final Four caliber team when they are playing well. Or they could get bounced right here. Let’s just split the difference and call it a day.
Pick: Virginia Tech 73, Illinois 68

2007 NCAA Tournament: Triumphant Return?

#13 Davidson Wildcats (29-4, 17-1 Southern) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (24-8, 10-6 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 1st Round, St. Louis Region
HSBC Arena – Buffalo, NY

I still don’t know what to make of Maryland’s draw. Initially I was pretty excited. There isn’t a big name in sight until next weekend. It looked as if the committee gift-wrapped a Sweet 16 appearance to Maryland. Sure, that one team (whose name I won’t mention in my Maryland previews until the Terps actually have to face them) is looming large at the top of the bracket and has to be in the minds of all players, coaches and fans. But it was as if the committee told Maryland to go to St. Louis, go directly to St. Louis, do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars.

The more I think about it, the more the draw worries me. Now I want to state, right here and now, that I’m not complaining about the draw. No matter what seed your team gets, no matter where they’re placed, if you hope that you’re team is going to win six games, they are going to have to beat a plethora of good teams. There is no such thing as an easy draw. Sure Ohio State looks like they got a pretty good pass. But then you remember that they’ll have to beat Tennessee/Virginia, Texas A&M and then UNC/G’town/Texas just to get to the final game. How is that easy? Is it easier than other teams? I guess. But it isn’t easy. Those are good teams. One off night from the Buckeyes and we can start fitting Greg Oden in Celtic Green. One off night for any team will lead to their ouster. This is The Tournament, dammit. The Big Dance. No one gets a cakewalk to or through Atlanta. You got to earn it. It’s supposed to be hard. If it wasn’t hard, everyone would do it. The hard is what makes it great (Yes, I swear that’s the last time I’ll quote from a Tom Hanks movie).

Anyway, the more I look at the first weekend of games, the more worried I become. Davidson is legitimate 11 seed. Butler, as overrated as I think they are, can still hang with the big boys on any given day. And Old Dominion is no slouch either. They happen to share a conference with one George Mason. You remember them, right? Now combine those teams with the knowledge that Maryland never plays well in early afternoon games (Maryland will play in the tournament’s first game). Also, add to that the one Maryland constant. Throughout Gary Williams’ tenure, Maryland plays up to superior competition and plays down to inferior teams. This has always been the case. Whether playing up against better UMass and Arizona teams in the mid-90’s. Or playing down to the Santa Clara Fightin’ Nashes and College of Charleston (they’re from Davidson’s conference!!!). Even this season, the Terps played up to Carolina, Duke and Michigan State while playing down (twice) to Miami.

I don’t mean any disrespect to Davidson, and I have nothing but respect for Bob McKillop’s squad, but Maryland is the much better team. If Maryland plays their style, and play a modest bit of defense, they win this game by at least 10. But we all know that Maryland is already looking past the Wildcats and this game is going to much closer than is should be.

So the Terps motor up to Buffalo (some reward…yeesh, was Anchorage unavailable?) to join their three mid-major bracket buddies. If they win, they’ll also get to enjoy the nightcap featuring two of the greatest offensive juggernauts in the country: Pittsburgh and our old friends, the Duke Blue Devils, who will feature a special singing edition of “Swing Low, Sweet Elbow” by Gerald HenderScum and the Ratface Quartet. I think the Vegas over/under line for that second round Dook/Pitt game is set at 17. But the Terps only get the “privledge” to see that game if they win. On a positive note, outstanding play-by-play broadcaster Kevin "Right Between The Eyes" Harlan will be on hand to call the action. And that is not as dirty as it sounds.

I’ve seen one Davidson game this year, and a couple of years ago, I broadcasted Maryland’s NIT win over the Wildcats at Comcast. So I’ve seen McKillop’s style of play twice. This is not the typical mid-major, defense-first, Butler/Southern Illinois style of play. Davidson likes to get up and down the court. This will play to Maryland’s advantage. No one outside of UNC and maybe Kansas can run with Maryland. However, Davidson likes to run and then pull up for outside shots. And they shoot very well.

By now, everyone has heard of Stephen Curry. He’s the stud freshman who grew up in North Carolina under the shadow of numerous ACC institutions. His father Dell was an average player in the NBA. Stephen is a freshman, and perhaps the best freshman in the country behind some guys named Durant, Oden and Wright. He averages 21 points a game. He can spot up from outside. He can cut to the basket. He can create his own shots. He could be a starter on the majority of major division one programs. What makes Curry even better is fellow guard Jason Richards. Richards leads the nation in assists per game with 7.3. I’m sure a majority of those were swing passes around the perimeter that Curry finished off with a jumper. But I’m sure a solid portion of those were nice passes in traffic to create two points that otherwise wouldn’t have been there. This backcourt is as good as you can find in a mid-major.

What Davidson has outside they lack inside. This is a very, very small team. Boris Meno and Thomas Sander are both 6-8 (although I guarantee Sander is closer to 6-6) and will be the tallest players Davidson throws on the court. Meno does average over eight rebounds a game, and he is a solid inside player for Southern Conference competition. But just remember he got those numbers playing against lesser post players. He hasn’t played a team that has two players like James Gist and Ekene Ibekwe in the lineup at the same time. Nor one that has a guy like Boom Osby off the bench. The only real programs that Davidson played this season were Duke, Missouri and Michigan. None of those teams have even above average inside game (in Duke’s case, Maryland themselves proved this fact). And Davidson lost to all three of them.

The Wildcats are a smart, disciplined team. However, like Maryland, they are young at key positions. With no seniors in the starting lineup, and few players left from their game two years ago against Maryland, Davidson has just about as much postseason experience as the current Maryland players do. There’s no guarantee that the freshmen and sophomores that played so well during the season will play as well under much brighter spotlights. This is the main difference between Maryland’s younger players and Davidson’s. Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes and Osby played at Duke. They played at Virginia and Virginia Tech. They played in a nationally televised game against UNC. Davidson, other than Duke…um, not so much.

Here’s how Maryland wins. They assert themselves on the glass and in the front court offensively. The Terps have such an overwhelming advantage inside, the NCAA may want to consider allowing Davidson to start an extra forward. Fortunately for the Terps, McKillop rarely, if ever, plays zone defense. So getting the ball inside shouldn’t be a problem. Defensively, the keys are Curry and Richards. Stick D.J. Strawberry on Curry, have Vasquez match up (at least at the beginning of the game) on Richards. Double-teaming or trapping Richards wouldn’t be a bad idea. Let’s see if the young guard can handle Maryland’s pressure and the pressure that comes with being in the NCAA tournament. Make him force passes to someone other than Curry. The key to stopping Curry is the same way you stop any shooter. Prevent him from getting the ball in the first place.



We need to see this D.J. Strawberry, or else...

Usually I advocate not worrying about one player. That strategy usually backfires. By focusing on one player, you allow the rest of the team to get going. But Curry is such a dangerous shooter, and Davidson doesn’t possess many other great talents, that stopping Curry has to be the priority. Take your chances with the rest of Davidson beating you. Hold Curry under 20 points, and this game won’t be a contest.

Here’s how Maryland loses. They turn this game into a three point shooting contest. Sure, Mike Jones and Strawberry could come out firing. But their track record during afternoon games isn’t great. By trying to shoot over Davidson, Maryland would take away their biggest advantage (inside game) and play right into the hands of the Wildcats. Defensively, Maryland becomes so worried about all of Davidson’s shooters (not just Curry), that they don’t get inside to rebound properly. Again, by allowing the game to be played around the perimeter, Maryland negates their advantage.

Maryland must force their tempo and get as many fast break opportunities as humanly possible. Get the ball inside early and often. After the Terps get into a rhythm and force Davidson to start collapsing in on the big men, then kick it outside for threes. If this game is played at Maryland’s helter-skelter pace, the Terps cannot forget about Curry in transition. And for the love of God, someone grab a rebound. Let’s go boys.

Maryland 82
Davidson 73


2007 TOURNAMENT PICKS

Don’t know who to pick? I got you covered over the next few days.There are two ways to predict the tournament games. The most common, and the one used in office pools and online challenges, is the locked bracket. You make all your picks at once and you have up until the first game to change it. After that, if your championship team loses in the first round, you are pretty much screwed. You keep track of those using a point system (1 point for a first round win, 2 points for a second round win, etc…). I will put in my locked bracket in a minute.However, I also want to predict and talk about each game. So before each round of action, I analyze the games for that upcoming day. Even if I didn’t have either team in my locked bracket, I will make new predictions for each round. For example, I have Vanderbilt and Washington State advancing to the second round. If both Vandy and WSU lose in the first round, it will hurt my locked bracket for the rest of the tournament (Not only would I lose two points for getting the games wrong, but I would not be able to pick up two points for the next round). In the “refreshing bracket”, I would be charged for the two losses as usual. However, I would be able to make a new prediction on the second round game between GW and Oral Roberts that I wouldn’t be able to make if the bracket was locked. I’ll keep track of those picks using a win/loss record. By the way, my final win/loss record for ACC games this year was 62-33.

Locked Bracket Link

The locked bracket is much harder to predict than the refresh bracket. You can refer back the following link to see my locked bracket. I’ll even post the link again throughout the tournament so you can see my progress. Then you’ll see my predictions for the first round games for Thursday, which will be identical to the first round picks in the locked bracket (but with analysis). The difference between the locked and refresh brackets will become more obvious on Saturday. Friday’s games will be predicted tomorrow. Enjoy.

East Rutherford Region

Winston-Salem, NC
Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum
#16 Eastern Kentucky Colonels (21-11) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (28-6)
As I stated last year, there is no reason to talk in depth about this game. I’ve gone on the record to several friends stating that as long as the NCAA uses the current format, no 16 seed will ever beat a one. It will never happen. So you’ll have to wait until the weekend to get my impressions of the one seeds. Luckily, you already know what I think of Carolina. This is another UConn waiting to happen.
Pick: North Carolina 87, Eastern Kentucky 65

#9 Michigan State Spartans (22-11) vs.
#8 Marquette Golden Eagles (24-9)
This game got a whole lot easier to predict with the announcement of Jerel McNeal’s broken thumb. Marquette now becomes a two-trick team with 5-11 Dominic James and Wesley Matthews trying to carry the load. Sparty’s inside-outside combination of Drew Neitzel and Goran Suton should be enough. However, Marquette returns all seven of their top scorers next season. If James makes the next step (which he was supposed to do this season), they instantly become a Top 5 team next season.
Pick: Michigan State 69, Marquette 64

ARCO Arena
Sacramento, CA
#14 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (23-10) vs.
#3 Washington State Cougars (25-7)
Oh, Thursday is not going to be kind to Golden Eagles across the country. So all the experts say that ORU is going to win this game? Are these the same experts that said ORU would beat #1 seed Memphis last season. Look, I’ve probably seen more ORU basketball (another team that played Maryland in the NIT) than Doug “I swear this is Gonzaga’s year” Gottlieb or Digger Phelps . Caleb Green and Ken Tutt are nice players. They aren’t going to beat Wazzau.
Pick: Washington State 72, Oral Roberts 60

#11 George Washington Colonials (23-8) vs.
#6 Vanderbilt Commodores (20-11)
As right as I was about Wazzau making the tournament at the beginning of the season, I was just as wrong about Vanderbilt missing it. I thought Kevin Stallings was on his way out. But I severely overrated the SEC. Stallings, one of my favorite coaches, got the job done with only one SEC caliber player. Derrick Byars is incredible. If you haven’t watched him yet, and you live in the D.C. area, here is your chance. He’s a poor man’s Kevin Durant. Vandy does one thing real well. That’s shoot the three. GW does a few things poorly. One of those is guarding the perimeter. Not good for the Colonials.
Pick: Vanderbilt 80, George Washington 66

Winston-Salem, NC
Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum
#15 Belmont Bruins (23-9) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (26-6)
I’m drinking the cool-aid with everyone else. This Georgetown team looks legit. Jeff Green may be playing better basketball than Durant, Law, Oden or anyone else in the country. Georgetown still doesn’t score consistently enough for me to pick them to win it all. But, this is the only team that is physical enough and quick enough to slow down Texas and North Carolina.
Pick: Georgetown 75, Belmont 55


Sure Jeff Green and Georgetown seem like the safe bet. But there is no better bet than the Touranment Predictions annual sponser Scarlett Johansson!

#10 Texas Tech Red Raiders (21-12) vs.
#7 Boston College Eagles (20-11)
Neither team has come close to fulfilling their potential. Tech is able to beat A&M and Kansas, then get blown out by Missouri. Boston College, as I said before, hasn’t been the same since UNC showed the rest of the conference how weak their defense was without Sean Williams. I know that both of these teams have been bad recently. The problem is that I’ve seen a lot of BC, so I know how poor they’ve actually been playing. Let’s hope ignorance is bliss.
Pick: Texas Tech 70, Boston College 67

San Antonio Region

Rupp Arena
Lexington, KY
#16 Central Conn. State Blue Devils (22-11) vs.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (30-3)
Hey CCSU, thanks for showing up (assuming you actually do). You plan to stop Greg Oden how exactly?
Pick: Ohio State 81, CCSU 54

#9 Xavier Musketeers (24-8) vs.
#8 Brigham Young Cougars (25-8)
Mid-majors run amok! Last year, I stated that the Mountain West usually does exceptionally well in the first round of the tournament. I was half right. I was remembering Utah in 1998, various New Mexico/Wyoming teams and, of course, UNLV in 1990. But I somehow forgot that those teams were still in the WAC at the time of their success. In my mind, I had the MWC breaking apart many years ago. Since the split only a few years ago, Mountain West teams have consistently crapped the bed. I think this is the season that changes. Look for both MWC teams to win their first round games. The Stormin’ Mormons start four players 6-6 or taller and have height and athletic advantages all over the court. Plus, they have a bunch of those 26-year old seniors fresh off their missions. The Muskies are a cute team, but way too small to hang in with the Cougars. The A-10 was just not very good this season. The MWC was strong and BYU will benefit from it.
Pick: BYU 73, Xavier 67

#14 Pennsylvania Quakers (22-8) vs.
#3 Texas A&M Aggies (25-6)
So, does anyone still not believe me when I talk about the Aggies being serious championship contenders? This team has it all. They have the sixth best shooting percentage in the country. The second best defensive shooting percentage in the country. They have the best point guard in the nation in Acie Law IV. The Aggies have two solid inside scoring threats in Joseph Jones and Kavaliauskas. Josh Carter shoots 52% from beyond the arc, which is the best percentage in the nation. He would be a number one scorer on almost any other team in the country, but is only the fourth best on A&M. Plus, they have they Byron Mouton style junkyard dog player in Dominique Kirk, who does a little bit of everything. Their bench is deep. Their coach is phenomenal. As long as Jones stays out of foul trouble, and Law stays healthy, where is the weakness on this team? I still don’t see one.
Pick: Texas A&M 79, Pennsylvania 57



Acie Law is the best point guard in the nation. Period. End of Discussion. No debate.

#11 Stanford Cardinal (18-12) vs.
#6 Louisville Cardinals (23-9)
I have no problem with Stanford getting into the Dance. I have a problem with them getting in over Florida State. The Pac-10 has been consistently screwed year after year, so it’s hard to complain when one of their teams catches a break. Still, I’d rather see Al Thornton in the NCAA’s instead of the Lopez brothers. Even though many think the Cardinal don’t belong, take a closer look. The starting backcourt averages 30 points a game while the front court averages 28 points a game. Add in 12 points from the bench, and that’s pretty good balance. The Lopez brothers are good shot blockers, and the rest of Stanford, when properly motivated, can play pretty good defense. The one problem is Louisville is a good three point shooting team and Stanford is rather small on the outside. Also, the 'Ville is playing a bona fide home game a few miles down the road in Lexington. Plus, I like my Cardinals with an “S” on the end. Seriously, can we get some plurality for Stanford already?
Pick: Louisville 77, Stanford 74

St. Louis Region

HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY
#12 Old Dominion Monarchs (24-8) vs.
#5 Butler Bulldogs (27-6)
Before we wax ecstatic about Butler, let’s remember that their last significant win came in November. Sure they had a number of quality victories. Notre Dame, Tennessee and Indiana have all fallen to the suddenly mighty Bulldogs. But more recently, they lost a home Bracket Buster game to Southern Illinois. They also fell twice to Wright State, including once in the Horizon Championship game. They failed to win either their conference regular season title or tournament title. That means they lost to some teams that were much worse than Wright State (Loyola-Chicago for instance). It may be possible, just possible, that the Bulldogs peaked too early.
Pick: Old Dominion 72, Butler 64

San Jose Region

HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY
#14 Wright State Raiders (23-9) vs.
#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (27-7)
Pittsburgh, otherwise known as Wisconsin East, has yet to show up in a big game all season. They can’t score. Their defense has disappeared at times. Aaron Gray is clearly not 100%. In addition, the Panthers now carry the banner of “continually high seeded team that can’t get past the first weekend” since Florida handed them that title after last season. And this is a three seed, supposedly on par with Texas A&M, Washington State and Oregon? Ok, whatever. Makes it easier for me to pick high level games in the next couple of rounds.
Pick: Pittsburgh 67, Wright State 63

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (27-6) vs.
#6 Duke Blue Devils (22-10)
Like Maryland, at first glance, it looks like the Blue Devils got a swell regional. They get to face a #11 seed which is probably a spot or two too high. Then they get to face the one three seed that can’t blow them off the court offensively. While they matchup very well against Pitt, this first round game reeks of an upset. The Rams can score, and score in bunches. Duke’s defense, which has been good, has disappeared at the wrong times. Like in overtime against NC State. Allowing the Wolfpack to score ON EVERY POSSESSION in overtime probably doesn’t bode well when the Dookies have to face a team with three guards who score more than 13 points a game. Will Famini, Michael Anderson and Calvin Roland aren’t terrific inside players, but easily enough to contain the Requisite White Stiff. The backcourts are the strengths of both teams, and the more I look at the numbers, and what I’ve seen from both teams this season, the more I like the Rams starting guards. Duke’s perimeter defense isn’t quick enough, and the team isn’t deep enough, to hang with Maynor, Walker and Pellot-Rosa. If all three of those guys score around their season averages, the Dookies are going to be one and done.
Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 74, Duke 70


Could Eric Maynor be the next Duke killer? Don't see why not.

ARCO Arena
Sacramento, CA
#15 Weber State Wildcats (20-11) vs.
#2 UCLA Bruins (26-5)
I like this UCLA team a lot more than I did last year’s. And last year’s made the national championship game. Do I see another trip to the Final Four? Why don’t you check the locked bracket link? I didn’t put the link here for my benefit.
Pick: UCLA 77, Weber State 55

#10 Gonzaga Bulldogs (23-10) vs.
#7 Indiana Hoosiers (20-9)
Sure the Zags are missing Josh Heytvelt, who in his own mind, is probably currently playing in the national championship game against purple zombies from Mars. The Gonzaga players who aren’t on the shrooms are still capable of pulling they typical Gonzaga first and second round magic. Jeremy Pargo and Derek Raivio are one of the better guard combos in the tournament. Sean Mallon has filled in nicely for Heytvelt inside. This Gonzaga version isn’t going far. But they can still cause some damage in the first round which would be followed with a rematch of their classic Elite 8 game against UCLA. Plus, they’re playing a Big 10 school. I don’t want to hear about any Big 10 school not named Ohio State.
Pick: Gonzaga 75, Indiana 68