2007 NCAA Tournament: Patience Is A Virtue

#5 Butler Bulldogs (28-6, 13-3 Horizon) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (25-8, 10-6 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 2nd Round – Midwest Region
HSBC Arena – Buffalo, NY

How they got here:
Butler beat #12 ODU 57-46
UMD beat #13 Davidson 82-70

Man, there are some terrible basketball teams in this tournament. Worse yet, there are some terrible teams that are advancing in this tournament. Let’s start with the Virginia Tech-Illinois game. Just ugly basketball. Combined, the two teams scored 106 points. Three other teams scored more than that by themselves in the first round. Michigan State attempted a shut out on Marquette, holding the Golden Eagles to 0 points in the first eight minutes. Villanova only scored 58 against Kentucky’s Swiss cheese defense. Heck, even Oregon struggled in the first round, scoring only 58 points, but held on to win anyway. But it’s not just the average big conference teams. Oh no! How about that Holy Cross-Southern Illinois atrocity? Or GW scoring only 44 points on 28% shooting against one of the tournament’s worst defensive teams? Seriously, the committee has to start using points per game as a tie-breaker to determine which teams get in and out of the Big Dance. I don’t think Drexel would have beaten Louisville. But they probably could have scored more than the 58 points Stanford put up.

The most embarrassing performance, not surprisingly, went to the Wisconsin Badgers. With an offense resembling something you’d find in a 50-year old rec-league game, the Badgers managed only 19 points in the first half against juggernaut Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. This disgrace of a two seed, possibly the worst two seed in the history of this tournament, was outplayed for 32 minutes before the refs finally assisted the Badgers to a victory. Even in previous 15 over 2 seed upsets, the 2 seed was never outplayed for the overwhelming majority of the game. I don’t think (I’ll have to go back and check) that any other two seed has trailed by 18 at any point of the game against a 15 seed.

Speaking of bad basketball, has anyone seen Duke lately? I mean, they were right here a second ago. What happened to them? Back in Durham already? Really? Great showing guys! You know, usually when you are in a tie game, with less than 10 seconds to go, you want to make some sort of effort to cover the guy with the ball. May want to work on that in the offseason

As much as I made fun of Buffalo in previous posts, I guess I have to start liking the city. The Terps advance and the Dookies are put safely away back on their butt-ugly campus for another season. Ratface, do yourself a favor and keep your boys away from the lacrosse house parties. Just a thought.

One other terrible game was the 57-46 shootout between Butler and Old Dominion. It was only 20-19 at half before both teams really caught fire. If this mid-major fad is the next wave of college basketball, count me out. Unfortunately, Maryland will be subjected to at least 40 more minutes of mid-major basketball. Unlike Thursday, the Terps will actually have to play against a team that uses patented mid-major style.

Davidson, as we found out, is not your typical mid-major. Yes, they like to jack up threes on almost every possession. And sure, they look for inside baskets about as often as Ratface goes through an entire game without cursing at the refs. However, unlike most mid-majors they do all of that quickly. The shot clock is never a factor. Seriously, there were times that Davidson looked more like Maryland than Maryland did. Not coincidently, it was a very exciting game. Davidson was much better than I thought, and this kid Curry is eventually going to trip someone up the tournament. He should get three more chances. It would help if Davidson attempted any inside shots. A half decent forward would do the trick.

For the first 25 minutes, it was if Maryland forgot there was a perimeter that needed defending. They weren’t burned badly because the possessions were so quick. Maryland had plenty of opportunities to answer back. Do that against Butler, and it will be a much different story.

Butler doesn’t do all that much well. They aren’t a good offensive team. They are beatable on defense. What they are able to do, in almost 100% of their games, is dictate tempo.

Butler will use the majority of the shot clock. Their stagnant defense also forces their opponents to work the clock. Don’t mistake this for a great defense. It isn’t. The opportunities are there for easy baskets if a team is patient enough and crisp with their passes. What Butler does do well is cut down on overall possessions and force sloppy teams into easy turnovers.

Butler is led by guard A.J. Graves. The 6-1 junior, who looks like he should be in the Hills Have Eyes 4, is a good shooter from the perimeter. He is also one of the best free throw shooters in the country. But he can’t create off the dribble (which lowers his free throw attempts). And at 6-1 (which is really closer to 5-10, 5-11), he is liability against taller guards. Maryland possesses a lot of taller guards.

Butler is even smaller than Davidson. Their tallest starter is 6-6 Brian Ligon, who only averages 3.3 ppg and 3.1 rpg. Their best rebounder is 6-0 guard Mike Green with nearly 6 a game. Butler doesn’t need a lot of rebounds, because they have fewer possessions, which lead to fewer shots and fewer misses. But if they’re off, they aren’t going to get second chance opportunities. Seriously, a 6-0 guard leads a division one team in rebounding. They had better shoot 50% or they are going to be in a world of trouble.

The Bulldogs bring two 6-7 guys off the bench, including Pete Campbell. Campbell single-handedly beat ODU with three threes in two minutes. The Terps may want to guard him. They may also want to stick on Graves. Hopefully, they’ll do this a lot better than they stuck on Curry. If they don’t, the Bulldogs will build themselves a three or four possession lead faster than Kevin Harlan can say “Right between the eyes.”


Because of typical foul trouble in the first round, this man should be well rested.

I’m not as worried about this game as much as I was about the Davidson one. I hope and believe the close call against the Wildcats woke the Terps up. The only thing that concerns me is the pace this game is going to be played at. Maryland may say they want to speed the game up. They may try to do it. It’s not going to happen. Butler forces EVERY team they play to adapt to their slow down style. Tennessee, a team that just put up 121 points, was forced into Butler’s tempo earlier this season. Notre Dame, Indiana, Gonzaga and slew of other big time schools have all been slowed down by the Bulldogs. We all know that there are plenty of times that Maryland struggles in half court games. Plus, the Terps can expect to see a couple of different zones, which is something Davidson did not throw at them. They struggled when Miami did that to them.

Here is how Maryland wins. First, guard the perimeter. If Butler scores inside, then so be it. But their inside game is much worse than Davidson’s. Take your chances. I would put Strawberry on Brandon Crone, Vasquez on Graves and Jones on Mike Green. It will be interesting to see who Maryland puts on Campbell (Gist? Certainly not Ibekwe). Second, be patient. I know the Terps love to get up and go. But there are going to be plenty of times when Maryland is going to find itself bogged down in long possessions. This doesn’t mean the Terps have to use all 35 seconds of clock. This doesn’t mean pass the ball around the perimeter and settle for threes. It means be careful where you pass the ball, because Butler has quick hands. Make sure passes inside. No forces. Because of that, it wouldn’t kill Maryland to use more Hayes at point guard in this game. He is the much better passer between the two point guards. And, if you have a decent look, take it. It doesn’t pay to be unselfish against Butler. You may only get one decent look at the basket every time down the court. Finally, do not commit any stupid fouls. I’m talking to you Mr. Ibekwe. Butler is the fifth best free throw shooting team in the country. They don’t drive a lot, they don’t go inside a lot. There won’t be much need to foul. So don’t do anything stupid on the perimeter. Guard them closely, but do not foul a bunch of jump shooters.

That said, Maryland is going to force mismatches everywhere on the court. Even if they can’t get out and run, Maryland owns size, speed and strength advantages at every position. EVERY POSITION. I’ve seen supermodels with more weight than this ugly little kid Graves. Their average height is 6-4. That’s almost a full three inches below the NCAA average. Basketball is a big man’s game. Get the ball up, play above the rim, and don’t throw stupid bounce passes. Hopefully the good Terps show up today.

Maryland 69
Butler 62


2007 NCAA TOURNAMENT

The uninteresting first round is over. I went 25-7. That is much better than the 22-10 mark I had last year. Still, I find my self only in the top quarter of most of my pools (and unlike Rick Neuheisel, I’m allowed to gamble). So, I’m not all that pleased. However, all of my Sweet 16 teams are still alive. I’m very happy about that. Let’s continue.

East Rutherford Region

#9 Michigan State Spartans (23-11) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (29-6)
Lawrence Joel Coliseum – Winston Salem, NC
How they got here:
MSU beat #8 Marquette 61-49
UNC beat #16 Eastern Kentucky 86-65
Let me start off by saying that it would not surprise me for North Carolina to lose any game from here on out. Nor would it surprise me if they won every remaining game by at least 15 points. They are the best team in the country when they want to be. However, they only want to be the best team half the time. Again, this is another Connecticut waiting to happen. There are just too many players worried about their draft status. There are still to many prolonged periods of ball-hogging and disappearing defense to consider the Tar Heels one of the four or five best teams remaining. North Carolina does benefit here in getting a team it can outscore easily. Michigan State could only manage 61 against a Marquette team missing their best player. The 49 points they surrendered against the Eagles look good, until you factor in the 15 points a game that Marquette was missing in Jerel McNeal. Plus, Michigan State had to grind out a 40 minute win while UNC was able to rest their starters and had an easy time against EKU in the first round. Not that it matters anyway. UNC is too deep, and too well rested, to lose this game. Drew Neitzel can’t score 50 points himself.
Pick: North Carolina 79, Michigan State 63

#6 Vanderbilt Commodores (21-11) vs.
#3 Washington State Cougars (26-7)
ARCO Arena – Sacramento, CA
How they got here:
Vandy beat #11 GW 77-44
WSU beat #14 ORU 70-54
In my bracket, I have Washington State advancing to the Sweet 16. However, after watching them play ORU, and the Commodores play a mystery team wearing George Washington uniforms, I’m starting to regret that pick. I really wish I could go back and change the brackets. I could change the pick right here, if I wanted to. Again, this blog synopsis isn’t meant to be locked. I’m going to stick with the Cougars, and here is why. Vanderbilt is very much like Maryland. They like to get up and down the court as much as possible. WSU is much like Butler. They slow the game down as much as possible. However, WSU is a better scoring team than Butler, so they have both great defense and an above average offense. Plus, WSU is used to playing offenses like Vandy’s in the Pac-10. In fact, every team they play in the Pac-10 is a run and gun team except for UCLA. Vanderbilt is not used to seeing the kind of defense that Wazzau plays. At least not in the SEC East against Florida, Tennessee or Kentucky. Washington State has height advantages at four of the five positions. They have two defensive stoppers (Derrick Lowe and Kyle Weaver) to shutdown the two scoring threats for Vanderbilt in Derrick Byars and Shan Foster. I’m nervous about this pick, but I’m sticking with it.
Pick: Washington State 71, Vanderbilt 66


Do you knew Derrick Byars? Best player this side of Kevin Durant.

#7 Boston College Eagles (21-11) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (27-6)
Lawrence Joel Coliseum – Winston-Salem, NC
How they got here:
BC beat #10 Texas Tech 84-75
G’town beat #15 Belmont 80-55
This matchup is strange. Usually the committee doesn’t allow conference teams to play each other. Oh that’s right. BC is now in the 23-team ACC. Georgetown remains behind in the 38-team Big East. All you need to do is look at the rosters for this one. Georgetown has Big East player of the year Jeff Green, who is playing some of the best basketball in the country. Throw him in the mix with Roy Hibbert, Jonathan Wallace and Jesse Sapp, and you have a formidable frontline, backcourt and several scoring options. Boston College has ACC player of the year Jared Dudley, who did not play well down the stretch of the season. He’s surrounded by Sean Marshall, Tyrese Rice and John Oates. The frontline is shaky, the backcourt is good but unpredictable, and unless Rice gets hot, there are only two scoring options. It’s not often I pick against the ACC when they matchup against the Big East. I even took BC last season over a favored Villanova team. But BC was fortunate to get past Texas Tech. They’re going to have to step up their game tenfold. I don’t think they can do it.
Pick: Georgetown 74, Boston College 65

San Antonio Region

#9 Xavier Musketeers (25-8) vs.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (31-3)
Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY
How they got here:
Xavier beat #8 BYU 79-77
OSU beat #16 CCSU 78-57
I was impressed by the Muskies. They were dominated by BYU in the first half of their game and fought through it. Drew Lavender, who seems like he is in his 7th year of eligibility (first with Oklahoma and now with Xavier), took over that game. He used to do that for Kelvin Sampson. Now the Lavender-Justin Doellman inside-outside combo looks like a legit scoring duo for Xavier. Now the competition is ratcheted up a few more notches. Can Doellman score 23 points against Greg Oden? Can Lavender, who is only 5-7, possibly guard 6-2 Mike Conley Jr.? I think the answer in both cases is no. If Doellman is shut down by Oden, and Lavender has a tough time against larger and quicker guards, the only other scoring threat is Stanley Burrell. And he looked pedestrian against BYU. I think Thad Matta gets a relatively easy win against his old school.
Pick: Ohio State 78, Xavier 65

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#6 Louisville Cardinals (24-9) vs.
#3 Texas A&M Aggies (26-6)
Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY
How they got here:
Louisville beat #11 Stanford 78-58
A&M beat #14 Penn 68-52
The Aggies achieved nothing on Thursday other than getting the blood pressure of the Predictor up a little bit. Tie game against Penn with 10 minutes to go? What in the name of Billy Gillispie is going on here? We all know Acie Law IV is a great player. But the reason I picked the Aggies to get to the finals is because Law is only one of a multitude of weapons. Other than Dominique Kirk, it looked as if the rest of A&M was interested in watching Law carry the team to victory. Joseph Jones has to play more than 24 minutes. Josh Carter can’t go 1-8 from the floor. The bench can’t get outscored by Penn’s bench 14-7. Those kind of performances from here on out are going to get the Aggies eliminated. A&M will be up against it today, as they face the Louisville Cardinals in what will basically be a true road game. Louisville embarrassed Stanford and the selection committee by effectively ending the competitive part of their game with the Cardinal in the first five minutes. Other than Tennessee, no team looked better in the first round. Louisville is much like a Pac-10 team. When they are on, and when they are shooting well from the outside, they are extremely tough to beat. However, when their outside shots don’t fall, their offensive production can drop anywhere from 20-30 points. David Padgett is more of a European style big man than a typical 6-11 power forward. The Cardinals do not possess a dominant inside player. This is a game where Law needs to feed the ball inside to Jones and Kavaliauskas. Those two should have an easy time inside. Law should be able to shut down Edgar Sosa, one of Louisville’s better shooters. The X-factor here is Derrick Caracter. He would be starting if not for infighting with Rick Pitino. If he comes off the bench and gets his 9-10 points a game, than it’s going to be hard for the Aggies to outscore Louisville. If he is held in check, and Law neutralizes Sosa, then the Cardinals are going to be forced into a half-court game with Padgett as their only scoring option. Pitino has never coached the most patient of teams, and a half court game would spell doom for the Cardinals.
Pick: Texas A&M 75, Louisville 70

San Jose Region

#11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (28-6) vs.
#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (28-7)
HSBC Arena – Buffalo, NY
How they got here:
VCU beat #6 Duke 79-77
Pitt beat #14 Wright St. 79-58
The best part about Dook losing is that it was the only real upset in the first round. So more attention was paid to it than usual. It was a great game. Dook never put VCU away, and in typical Dook fashion, couldn’t hold on to their double-digit lead. That game was a microcosm of Dook’s season. Except Dook lost to a team that has half of the talent, and a very small fraction of the spending money than they do. Now, I correctly picked VCU to win and I had them matching up with Pitt. And I had Pitt moving on. But that was in my locked bracket. I’m changing that pick here. The Maynor/Walker/Pellot-Rosa combination matches up very well against Pitt. No one inside should be able to stop Aaron Gray, but I don’t think it will matter. This is the second round after all. This is usually where Pitt and Jamie Dixon check out.
Pick: VCU 72, Pittsburgh 68


DAGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!

#7 Indiana Hoosiers (21-9) vs.
#UCLA Bruins (27-5)
ARCO Arena – Sacramento, CA
How they got here:
IU beat #10 Gonzaga 70-57
UCLA beat #15 Weber St. 70-42
Don’t be fooled by the CBS hype. This game will not be as good as advertised. While UCLA continues to build on their tradition, Indiana is just a shell of its former self. This may be the second round’s biggest mismatch. Other than D.J. White over Lorenzo Mata, Indiana is overwhelmed everywhere else on the court. There is no way the average Indiana backcourt will be able to stop the Darren Collison, Arron Afflalo and Josh Shipp trio that the Bruins possess.
Pick: UCLA 76, Indiana 60