2007 NCAA Tournament: Triumphant Return?

#13 Davidson Wildcats (29-4, 17-1 Southern) vs.
#4 Maryland Terrapins (24-8, 10-6 ACC)
NCAA Tournament 1st Round, St. Louis Region
HSBC Arena – Buffalo, NY

I still don’t know what to make of Maryland’s draw. Initially I was pretty excited. There isn’t a big name in sight until next weekend. It looked as if the committee gift-wrapped a Sweet 16 appearance to Maryland. Sure, that one team (whose name I won’t mention in my Maryland previews until the Terps actually have to face them) is looming large at the top of the bracket and has to be in the minds of all players, coaches and fans. But it was as if the committee told Maryland to go to St. Louis, go directly to St. Louis, do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars.

The more I think about it, the more the draw worries me. Now I want to state, right here and now, that I’m not complaining about the draw. No matter what seed your team gets, no matter where they’re placed, if you hope that you’re team is going to win six games, they are going to have to beat a plethora of good teams. There is no such thing as an easy draw. Sure Ohio State looks like they got a pretty good pass. But then you remember that they’ll have to beat Tennessee/Virginia, Texas A&M and then UNC/G’town/Texas just to get to the final game. How is that easy? Is it easier than other teams? I guess. But it isn’t easy. Those are good teams. One off night from the Buckeyes and we can start fitting Greg Oden in Celtic Green. One off night for any team will lead to their ouster. This is The Tournament, dammit. The Big Dance. No one gets a cakewalk to or through Atlanta. You got to earn it. It’s supposed to be hard. If it wasn’t hard, everyone would do it. The hard is what makes it great (Yes, I swear that’s the last time I’ll quote from a Tom Hanks movie).

Anyway, the more I look at the first weekend of games, the more worried I become. Davidson is legitimate 11 seed. Butler, as overrated as I think they are, can still hang with the big boys on any given day. And Old Dominion is no slouch either. They happen to share a conference with one George Mason. You remember them, right? Now combine those teams with the knowledge that Maryland never plays well in early afternoon games (Maryland will play in the tournament’s first game). Also, add to that the one Maryland constant. Throughout Gary Williams’ tenure, Maryland plays up to superior competition and plays down to inferior teams. This has always been the case. Whether playing up against better UMass and Arizona teams in the mid-90’s. Or playing down to the Santa Clara Fightin’ Nashes and College of Charleston (they’re from Davidson’s conference!!!). Even this season, the Terps played up to Carolina, Duke and Michigan State while playing down (twice) to Miami.

I don’t mean any disrespect to Davidson, and I have nothing but respect for Bob McKillop’s squad, but Maryland is the much better team. If Maryland plays their style, and play a modest bit of defense, they win this game by at least 10. But we all know that Maryland is already looking past the Wildcats and this game is going to much closer than is should be.

So the Terps motor up to Buffalo (some reward…yeesh, was Anchorage unavailable?) to join their three mid-major bracket buddies. If they win, they’ll also get to enjoy the nightcap featuring two of the greatest offensive juggernauts in the country: Pittsburgh and our old friends, the Duke Blue Devils, who will feature a special singing edition of “Swing Low, Sweet Elbow” by Gerald HenderScum and the Ratface Quartet. I think the Vegas over/under line for that second round Dook/Pitt game is set at 17. But the Terps only get the “privledge” to see that game if they win. On a positive note, outstanding play-by-play broadcaster Kevin "Right Between The Eyes" Harlan will be on hand to call the action. And that is not as dirty as it sounds.

I’ve seen one Davidson game this year, and a couple of years ago, I broadcasted Maryland’s NIT win over the Wildcats at Comcast. So I’ve seen McKillop’s style of play twice. This is not the typical mid-major, defense-first, Butler/Southern Illinois style of play. Davidson likes to get up and down the court. This will play to Maryland’s advantage. No one outside of UNC and maybe Kansas can run with Maryland. However, Davidson likes to run and then pull up for outside shots. And they shoot very well.

By now, everyone has heard of Stephen Curry. He’s the stud freshman who grew up in North Carolina under the shadow of numerous ACC institutions. His father Dell was an average player in the NBA. Stephen is a freshman, and perhaps the best freshman in the country behind some guys named Durant, Oden and Wright. He averages 21 points a game. He can spot up from outside. He can cut to the basket. He can create his own shots. He could be a starter on the majority of major division one programs. What makes Curry even better is fellow guard Jason Richards. Richards leads the nation in assists per game with 7.3. I’m sure a majority of those were swing passes around the perimeter that Curry finished off with a jumper. But I’m sure a solid portion of those were nice passes in traffic to create two points that otherwise wouldn’t have been there. This backcourt is as good as you can find in a mid-major.

What Davidson has outside they lack inside. This is a very, very small team. Boris Meno and Thomas Sander are both 6-8 (although I guarantee Sander is closer to 6-6) and will be the tallest players Davidson throws on the court. Meno does average over eight rebounds a game, and he is a solid inside player for Southern Conference competition. But just remember he got those numbers playing against lesser post players. He hasn’t played a team that has two players like James Gist and Ekene Ibekwe in the lineup at the same time. Nor one that has a guy like Boom Osby off the bench. The only real programs that Davidson played this season were Duke, Missouri and Michigan. None of those teams have even above average inside game (in Duke’s case, Maryland themselves proved this fact). And Davidson lost to all three of them.

The Wildcats are a smart, disciplined team. However, like Maryland, they are young at key positions. With no seniors in the starting lineup, and few players left from their game two years ago against Maryland, Davidson has just about as much postseason experience as the current Maryland players do. There’s no guarantee that the freshmen and sophomores that played so well during the season will play as well under much brighter spotlights. This is the main difference between Maryland’s younger players and Davidson’s. Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes and Osby played at Duke. They played at Virginia and Virginia Tech. They played in a nationally televised game against UNC. Davidson, other than Duke…um, not so much.

Here’s how Maryland wins. They assert themselves on the glass and in the front court offensively. The Terps have such an overwhelming advantage inside, the NCAA may want to consider allowing Davidson to start an extra forward. Fortunately for the Terps, McKillop rarely, if ever, plays zone defense. So getting the ball inside shouldn’t be a problem. Defensively, the keys are Curry and Richards. Stick D.J. Strawberry on Curry, have Vasquez match up (at least at the beginning of the game) on Richards. Double-teaming or trapping Richards wouldn’t be a bad idea. Let’s see if the young guard can handle Maryland’s pressure and the pressure that comes with being in the NCAA tournament. Make him force passes to someone other than Curry. The key to stopping Curry is the same way you stop any shooter. Prevent him from getting the ball in the first place.



We need to see this D.J. Strawberry, or else...

Usually I advocate not worrying about one player. That strategy usually backfires. By focusing on one player, you allow the rest of the team to get going. But Curry is such a dangerous shooter, and Davidson doesn’t possess many other great talents, that stopping Curry has to be the priority. Take your chances with the rest of Davidson beating you. Hold Curry under 20 points, and this game won’t be a contest.

Here’s how Maryland loses. They turn this game into a three point shooting contest. Sure, Mike Jones and Strawberry could come out firing. But their track record during afternoon games isn’t great. By trying to shoot over Davidson, Maryland would take away their biggest advantage (inside game) and play right into the hands of the Wildcats. Defensively, Maryland becomes so worried about all of Davidson’s shooters (not just Curry), that they don’t get inside to rebound properly. Again, by allowing the game to be played around the perimeter, Maryland negates their advantage.

Maryland must force their tempo and get as many fast break opportunities as humanly possible. Get the ball inside early and often. After the Terps get into a rhythm and force Davidson to start collapsing in on the big men, then kick it outside for threes. If this game is played at Maryland’s helter-skelter pace, the Terps cannot forget about Curry in transition. And for the love of God, someone grab a rebound. Let’s go boys.

Maryland 82
Davidson 73


2007 TOURNAMENT PICKS

Don’t know who to pick? I got you covered over the next few days.There are two ways to predict the tournament games. The most common, and the one used in office pools and online challenges, is the locked bracket. You make all your picks at once and you have up until the first game to change it. After that, if your championship team loses in the first round, you are pretty much screwed. You keep track of those using a point system (1 point for a first round win, 2 points for a second round win, etc…). I will put in my locked bracket in a minute.However, I also want to predict and talk about each game. So before each round of action, I analyze the games for that upcoming day. Even if I didn’t have either team in my locked bracket, I will make new predictions for each round. For example, I have Vanderbilt and Washington State advancing to the second round. If both Vandy and WSU lose in the first round, it will hurt my locked bracket for the rest of the tournament (Not only would I lose two points for getting the games wrong, but I would not be able to pick up two points for the next round). In the “refreshing bracket”, I would be charged for the two losses as usual. However, I would be able to make a new prediction on the second round game between GW and Oral Roberts that I wouldn’t be able to make if the bracket was locked. I’ll keep track of those picks using a win/loss record. By the way, my final win/loss record for ACC games this year was 62-33.

Locked Bracket Link

The locked bracket is much harder to predict than the refresh bracket. You can refer back the following link to see my locked bracket. I’ll even post the link again throughout the tournament so you can see my progress. Then you’ll see my predictions for the first round games for Thursday, which will be identical to the first round picks in the locked bracket (but with analysis). The difference between the locked and refresh brackets will become more obvious on Saturday. Friday’s games will be predicted tomorrow. Enjoy.

East Rutherford Region

Winston-Salem, NC
Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum
#16 Eastern Kentucky Colonels (21-11) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (28-6)
As I stated last year, there is no reason to talk in depth about this game. I’ve gone on the record to several friends stating that as long as the NCAA uses the current format, no 16 seed will ever beat a one. It will never happen. So you’ll have to wait until the weekend to get my impressions of the one seeds. Luckily, you already know what I think of Carolina. This is another UConn waiting to happen.
Pick: North Carolina 87, Eastern Kentucky 65

#9 Michigan State Spartans (22-11) vs.
#8 Marquette Golden Eagles (24-9)
This game got a whole lot easier to predict with the announcement of Jerel McNeal’s broken thumb. Marquette now becomes a two-trick team with 5-11 Dominic James and Wesley Matthews trying to carry the load. Sparty’s inside-outside combination of Drew Neitzel and Goran Suton should be enough. However, Marquette returns all seven of their top scorers next season. If James makes the next step (which he was supposed to do this season), they instantly become a Top 5 team next season.
Pick: Michigan State 69, Marquette 64

ARCO Arena
Sacramento, CA
#14 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (23-10) vs.
#3 Washington State Cougars (25-7)
Oh, Thursday is not going to be kind to Golden Eagles across the country. So all the experts say that ORU is going to win this game? Are these the same experts that said ORU would beat #1 seed Memphis last season. Look, I’ve probably seen more ORU basketball (another team that played Maryland in the NIT) than Doug “I swear this is Gonzaga’s year” Gottlieb or Digger Phelps . Caleb Green and Ken Tutt are nice players. They aren’t going to beat Wazzau.
Pick: Washington State 72, Oral Roberts 60

#11 George Washington Colonials (23-8) vs.
#6 Vanderbilt Commodores (20-11)
As right as I was about Wazzau making the tournament at the beginning of the season, I was just as wrong about Vanderbilt missing it. I thought Kevin Stallings was on his way out. But I severely overrated the SEC. Stallings, one of my favorite coaches, got the job done with only one SEC caliber player. Derrick Byars is incredible. If you haven’t watched him yet, and you live in the D.C. area, here is your chance. He’s a poor man’s Kevin Durant. Vandy does one thing real well. That’s shoot the three. GW does a few things poorly. One of those is guarding the perimeter. Not good for the Colonials.
Pick: Vanderbilt 80, George Washington 66

Winston-Salem, NC
Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum
#15 Belmont Bruins (23-9) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (26-6)
I’m drinking the cool-aid with everyone else. This Georgetown team looks legit. Jeff Green may be playing better basketball than Durant, Law, Oden or anyone else in the country. Georgetown still doesn’t score consistently enough for me to pick them to win it all. But, this is the only team that is physical enough and quick enough to slow down Texas and North Carolina.
Pick: Georgetown 75, Belmont 55


Sure Jeff Green and Georgetown seem like the safe bet. But there is no better bet than the Touranment Predictions annual sponser Scarlett Johansson!

#10 Texas Tech Red Raiders (21-12) vs.
#7 Boston College Eagles (20-11)
Neither team has come close to fulfilling their potential. Tech is able to beat A&M and Kansas, then get blown out by Missouri. Boston College, as I said before, hasn’t been the same since UNC showed the rest of the conference how weak their defense was without Sean Williams. I know that both of these teams have been bad recently. The problem is that I’ve seen a lot of BC, so I know how poor they’ve actually been playing. Let’s hope ignorance is bliss.
Pick: Texas Tech 70, Boston College 67

San Antonio Region

Rupp Arena
Lexington, KY
#16 Central Conn. State Blue Devils (22-11) vs.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (30-3)
Hey CCSU, thanks for showing up (assuming you actually do). You plan to stop Greg Oden how exactly?
Pick: Ohio State 81, CCSU 54

#9 Xavier Musketeers (24-8) vs.
#8 Brigham Young Cougars (25-8)
Mid-majors run amok! Last year, I stated that the Mountain West usually does exceptionally well in the first round of the tournament. I was half right. I was remembering Utah in 1998, various New Mexico/Wyoming teams and, of course, UNLV in 1990. But I somehow forgot that those teams were still in the WAC at the time of their success. In my mind, I had the MWC breaking apart many years ago. Since the split only a few years ago, Mountain West teams have consistently crapped the bed. I think this is the season that changes. Look for both MWC teams to win their first round games. The Stormin’ Mormons start four players 6-6 or taller and have height and athletic advantages all over the court. Plus, they have a bunch of those 26-year old seniors fresh off their missions. The Muskies are a cute team, but way too small to hang in with the Cougars. The A-10 was just not very good this season. The MWC was strong and BYU will benefit from it.
Pick: BYU 73, Xavier 67

#14 Pennsylvania Quakers (22-8) vs.
#3 Texas A&M Aggies (25-6)
So, does anyone still not believe me when I talk about the Aggies being serious championship contenders? This team has it all. They have the sixth best shooting percentage in the country. The second best defensive shooting percentage in the country. They have the best point guard in the nation in Acie Law IV. The Aggies have two solid inside scoring threats in Joseph Jones and Kavaliauskas. Josh Carter shoots 52% from beyond the arc, which is the best percentage in the nation. He would be a number one scorer on almost any other team in the country, but is only the fourth best on A&M. Plus, they have they Byron Mouton style junkyard dog player in Dominique Kirk, who does a little bit of everything. Their bench is deep. Their coach is phenomenal. As long as Jones stays out of foul trouble, and Law stays healthy, where is the weakness on this team? I still don’t see one.
Pick: Texas A&M 79, Pennsylvania 57



Acie Law is the best point guard in the nation. Period. End of Discussion. No debate.

#11 Stanford Cardinal (18-12) vs.
#6 Louisville Cardinals (23-9)
I have no problem with Stanford getting into the Dance. I have a problem with them getting in over Florida State. The Pac-10 has been consistently screwed year after year, so it’s hard to complain when one of their teams catches a break. Still, I’d rather see Al Thornton in the NCAA’s instead of the Lopez brothers. Even though many think the Cardinal don’t belong, take a closer look. The starting backcourt averages 30 points a game while the front court averages 28 points a game. Add in 12 points from the bench, and that’s pretty good balance. The Lopez brothers are good shot blockers, and the rest of Stanford, when properly motivated, can play pretty good defense. The one problem is Louisville is a good three point shooting team and Stanford is rather small on the outside. Also, the 'Ville is playing a bona fide home game a few miles down the road in Lexington. Plus, I like my Cardinals with an “S” on the end. Seriously, can we get some plurality for Stanford already?
Pick: Louisville 77, Stanford 74

St. Louis Region

HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY
#12 Old Dominion Monarchs (24-8) vs.
#5 Butler Bulldogs (27-6)
Before we wax ecstatic about Butler, let’s remember that their last significant win came in November. Sure they had a number of quality victories. Notre Dame, Tennessee and Indiana have all fallen to the suddenly mighty Bulldogs. But more recently, they lost a home Bracket Buster game to Southern Illinois. They also fell twice to Wright State, including once in the Horizon Championship game. They failed to win either their conference regular season title or tournament title. That means they lost to some teams that were much worse than Wright State (Loyola-Chicago for instance). It may be possible, just possible, that the Bulldogs peaked too early.
Pick: Old Dominion 72, Butler 64

San Jose Region

HSBC Arena
Buffalo, NY
#14 Wright State Raiders (23-9) vs.
#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (27-7)
Pittsburgh, otherwise known as Wisconsin East, has yet to show up in a big game all season. They can’t score. Their defense has disappeared at times. Aaron Gray is clearly not 100%. In addition, the Panthers now carry the banner of “continually high seeded team that can’t get past the first weekend” since Florida handed them that title after last season. And this is a three seed, supposedly on par with Texas A&M, Washington State and Oregon? Ok, whatever. Makes it easier for me to pick high level games in the next couple of rounds.
Pick: Pittsburgh 67, Wright State 63

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (27-6) vs.
#6 Duke Blue Devils (22-10)
Like Maryland, at first glance, it looks like the Blue Devils got a swell regional. They get to face a #11 seed which is probably a spot or two too high. Then they get to face the one three seed that can’t blow them off the court offensively. While they matchup very well against Pitt, this first round game reeks of an upset. The Rams can score, and score in bunches. Duke’s defense, which has been good, has disappeared at the wrong times. Like in overtime against NC State. Allowing the Wolfpack to score ON EVERY POSSESSION in overtime probably doesn’t bode well when the Dookies have to face a team with three guards who score more than 13 points a game. Will Famini, Michael Anderson and Calvin Roland aren’t terrific inside players, but easily enough to contain the Requisite White Stiff. The backcourts are the strengths of both teams, and the more I look at the numbers, and what I’ve seen from both teams this season, the more I like the Rams starting guards. Duke’s perimeter defense isn’t quick enough, and the team isn’t deep enough, to hang with Maynor, Walker and Pellot-Rosa. If all three of those guys score around their season averages, the Dookies are going to be one and done.
Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 74, Duke 70


Could Eric Maynor be the next Duke killer? Don't see why not.

ARCO Arena
Sacramento, CA
#15 Weber State Wildcats (20-11) vs.
#2 UCLA Bruins (26-5)
I like this UCLA team a lot more than I did last year’s. And last year’s made the national championship game. Do I see another trip to the Final Four? Why don’t you check the locked bracket link? I didn’t put the link here for my benefit.
Pick: UCLA 77, Weber State 55

#10 Gonzaga Bulldogs (23-10) vs.
#7 Indiana Hoosiers (20-9)
Sure the Zags are missing Josh Heytvelt, who in his own mind, is probably currently playing in the national championship game against purple zombies from Mars. The Gonzaga players who aren’t on the shrooms are still capable of pulling they typical Gonzaga first and second round magic. Jeremy Pargo and Derek Raivio are one of the better guard combos in the tournament. Sean Mallon has filled in nicely for Heytvelt inside. This Gonzaga version isn’t going far. But they can still cause some damage in the first round which would be followed with a rematch of their classic Elite 8 game against UCLA. Plus, they’re playing a Big 10 school. I don’t want to hear about any Big 10 school not named Ohio State.
Pick: Gonzaga 75, Indiana 68