2007 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 2

One half of the first round in the books. I went 12-4, which is ok. Nothing special. I did almost pick several scores right on the money. I said Maryland would win 82-73 (they won 82-70) and Georgetown would win 75-55 (they won 80-55). Plus I picked the VCU upset. So let’s see how the other half plays out.

East Rutherford Region

Spokane Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA
#13 New Mexico State Aggies (25-8) vs.
#4 Texas Longhorns (24-9)
Against any other 4 seed, I would have really considered NMSU to pull the upset. These guys had to bang with Nevada and Utah State, and the WAC isn’t as weak as people make it out to be. The RPI of 69 and the solid schedule strength show how good the Aggies really are. Reggie Theus is a coach on the rise, and has resurrected a dead program instantly with a bunch of transfers. But the Aggies are playing the traveling circus known as the Texas Durants. Contrary to popular belief, Texas won’t go as far as Kevin Durant takes them. They’ll only go as far and as long as Rich Barnes delays his annual tournament choke job. It won’t happen here, as NMSU isn’t too fond of playing defense, something that could be a problem when facing a player that averages 25 points a game.
Pick: Texas 88, New Mexico State 75

#12 Arkansas Razorbacks (21-13) vs.
#5 Southern California Trojans (23-11)
Unlike Stanford, I have a large problem with Arkansas making this shindig. NO ONE had Arkansas making the tournament. Not even Joe Lunardi. Well, he didn’t until he was tipped off to their inclusion an hour before the selection show started. He quickly changed his bracket to include both the Razorbacks and Cardinal just before the show began. No doubt he will count it towards his “outstanding” record. Lunardi, your job is to predict the bracket using stats and assumption. Not based on inside information. If you have information that one team is going to make it, it kind of takes the predicting out out of that equation. Not counting those two schools, Lunardi only got 29 out of 34 teams correct. Another poor showing. Let’s not hear any more crap about missing only 7 teams in 6 years, or something like that. He missed three last year and five this season. Even I, without any inside information whatsoever, did better than that (missing two last year and three this season). So no more of this guy please. And no more of Arkansas, who possess only two solid wins over Alabama and SIU.
Pick: Southern Cal 84, Arkansas 69

San Antonio Region

Nationwide Arena
Columbus, OH
#13 Albany Great Danes (23-9) vs.
#4 Virginia Cavaliers (20-10)
I had serious commentary about this game, like how both teams were over seeded by at least two positions. Then I saw that Albany’s mascot is basically Scooby Doo. How can anything I say compete with that?
Pick: Virginia 86, Albany 68

#12 Long Beach State 49ers (24-7) vs.
#5 Tennessee Volunteers (22-10)
Put away the abacuses. If any of you have Friday afternoon off, and enjoy a good old-fashion shootout, then make sure you tune your Direct TV to this one. The 49ers are an intriguing team. Out of all the mid-majors, LBST has the best offense running away. With four of the five starters averaging at least 12 points a game, this team can score with any of the power conference teams. However, because this team likes to hoist shots up in rapid fashion, their defense suffers drastically. Because the 49ers can score, I probably would have picked them against the majority of five seeds. But whoa! Keep your shirt on, Bruce. The 49ers play one of the few teams that can outscore them. Tennessee plays very similar to LBST and does it while playing in a tougher conference. Yes, the 220 strength of schedule for Long Beach doesn’t give me much confidence in them for this game. There’s just so much drama in the L-B-C…
Pick: Tennessee 94, Long Beach State 83

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA
#15 North Texas Mean Green (23-10) vs.
#2 Memphis Tigers (30-3)
Like last year, Memphis is one seed too high. In fact, it’s hard to argue that Memphis should even be a three. They’ll seem like a one seed in this game against a North Texas team that really doesn’t do anything particularly well.
Pick: Memphis 90, North Texas 67

*The Predictor Co-Game of the Day*
#10 Creighton Blue Jays (22-10) vs.
#7 Nevada Wolf Pack (28-4)
Nevada is not a one player team. They are not a Texas type team. Nick Fazekas is a great player. But it’s time to learn the names Ramon Sessions and Marcelus Kemp. They are both very capable scorers. Nevada may have one of the best 1-2-3 scoring punches in the country. Yes, their defense is lax at times. Yes, their coach is a little bit of a psycho. Yes, their bench is a bit thin. If they get hot, they have the potential to not only win a couple of games, but possibly have a shot at the Final Four. Creighton is also a dangerous team, with three players averaging in double digits. I don’t think they have the answer inside for Fazekas, and their methodical guards can’t keep up with Kemp. Sessions is the X-factor. If he scores in the 14-15 points range, and keeps his turnovers to a minimum, then how can Creighton stop all three big names? Unless Nate Funk really brings in the noise, this game has blowout potential.
Pick: Nevada 87, Creighton 78

St. Louis Region

New Orleans Arena
New Orleans, LA
#16 Jackson State Tigers (21-13) vs.
#1 Florida Gators (29-5)
The only real question here? Do you like Florida by 20, or by 30?
Pick: Florida 85, Jackson State 55

#9 Purdue Boilermakers (21-11) vs.
#8 Arizona Wildcats (20-10)
What, did the committee just pick two of the biggest tournament underachievers and throw them together? Is this there way of showing pity? One of these teams has to win. Arizona’s failures have been obvious for the better part of the past two decades (save for 1997). No one west of Ratface does less with more talent than Lute Olsen. On the other hand, you have to go back to the mid-90’s and the days of Glen Robinson to recall the several times Gene Keady’s comb over couldn’t will the Boilers into the Final Four. It’s been awhile since Purdue choked in the NCAA’s, and you know how little respect I have for the Big 10. So this one seems pretty easy to pick.
Pick: Arizona 79, Purdue 71

Spokane Memorial Arena
Spokane, WA
#14 Miami-Ohio Redhawks (18-14)
#3 Oregon Ducks (26-7)
The Redhawks are a nice story. They survived the cannibalistic MAC on a wing, a prayer and a bank shot. They weren’t one of the top three teams in the conference, but succeeded in the tournament, and that’s all that counts nowadays. They’re a nice story that will end in the first round at the feathers of the high-scoring Ducks.
Pick: Oregon 86, Miami-Ohio 64

#11 Winthrop Eagles (28-4) vs.
#6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-7)
It’s beyond me how a 24-7 big conference team with a 31 RPI is seeded below other teams with worse records (namely Virginia) and then is the odds on favorite to get upset in the first round. Now I’m not a big fan of the “if A>B and B>C than A has to be >C” theory, but Maryland crushed Winthrop right before they lost to Notre Dame. It’s never a great idea to go with the popular upset pick, because it usually doesn’t happen.
Pick: Notre Dame 80, Winthrop 73

United Center
Chicago, IL
#15 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (26-6) vs.
#2 Wisconsin Badgers (29-5)
No one irks The Predictor like the Badgers, who have been imitating a decent team all season. Fortunately for everyone outside of Madison, March doesn’t allow frauds with inflated records that play in sub-standard power conferences to waltz into the Final Four. Sorry, this team won’t make it further than the Sweet 16. Whether it’s Oregon, Georgia Tech or UNLV, this team is going down somewhere. The last decent win they had was in early January over OSU. Since then, they’ve lost twice to same Buckeyes, who weren’t playing all that well in January to begin with. Meanwhile, the Islanders continue their great story. 10 years ago there was no basketball program at TAMU-CC. They’ve gone from D-1 transition school to conference member (which is not as easy as you would think) to conference champion to NCAA tournament bid. This is a team that in the past few years has taken out teams like Mississippi State, Florida State and UTEP (with Billy Gillispie). Wisconsin, by the way, is only a year removed from their baffling loss to North Dakota State. The last Big 10 champion, Iowa, was taken out in the first round by 14th seed Northwestern State. Northwestern State was the team TAMU-CC beat to win the Southland Conference. Oh-oh! Wisconsin is a team that is going to lose early in the tournament because they can’t score. Even with Alondo Tucker (who is a good player but certainly not All-American worthy) the Badgers still struggle to crack 60. They are never going to blow out an inferior opponent, and average teams will always have a chance to beat them if they go on a scoring spurt in the final minutes. Now, I’m not going to call it, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Islanders surprise the Badgers right here.
Pick: Wisconsin 63, Texas A&M-CC 56

*The Predictor Co-Game of the Day*
#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (20-11) vs.
#7 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (28-6)
Not since Jerry Tarkanian was munching on a towel and blowing out the Dookies has Vegas seen a team like this. In the rough Mountain West, UNLV was the class of the league. I really liked the Rebels chances of making a run past the Sweet 16 until I saw them get bullied inside at Provo by BYU. UNLV is a very small team, with their tallest starter at 6-8 (although the Rebs have the MWC leader in blocks, Joel Anthony, coming off the bench). They do have two guards who are 6-6, but the front court may be the smallest in the tournament. That really concerns me with tall, lanky and athletic Georgia Tech on the docket for the opening round. On the other hand, Tech never had any momentum during the regular season until the last few games. Then Wake Forest killed it off in the ACC tournament. Tech has never come together like it should have. I’d rather pick an overachieving conference champion than an underachieving .500 conference team.
Pick: UNLV 83, Georgia Tech 81 (OT)

San Jose Region

United Center
Chicago, IL
#16 Niagara Purple Eagles (23-11) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks
Want more proof that I was right about my statement earlier this season that Maryland should stop playing MAAC teams? How about the committee thinking that Niagara, the MAAC champion, was so bad that they needed to be relegated to the play-in-game. Seriously, the CAA is right down the road. If we need to play mid-majors, let’s play them.
Pick: Kansas 91, Niagara 66

#9 Villanova Wildcats (22-10) vs.
#8 Kentucky Wildcats (21-11)
Why not fire Tubby Smith? Seriously, what has he done? He won a national champion with borrowed players, and turned Kentucky from one of the top three schools in the country to another average BCS school. He hasn’t been to a Final Four since that championship in 1998 with Rick Pitino’s players. Great coaches have been fired for less. He seems like a nice guy. I even met him while staying at the Kentucky team hotel during the Terps trip to the Syracuse regional in 2002. Being a nice guy doesn’t necessarily mean you are a good coach. He’d be a perfect coach for a Colorado, California or even a Clemson (hint hint). But he doesn’t fit at Kentucky. Never has.
Pick: Wildcats 79, Wildcats 73
(Hahaha. Seriously though, Villanova wins)

Nationwide Arena
Columbus, OH
#13 Holy Cross Crusaders (25-8) vs.
#4 Southern Illinois Salukis (27-6)
The College of the Holy Cross is another one of those questionable seeds. This is certainly not a 13 seed along the previous lines of Vermont or conference buddy Bucknell. This is, at best, a 15 seed. Somehow they not only get a cushy seed, but a team that is very beatable in the first round.
Pick: Southern Illinois 68, Holy Cross 58

#12 Illinois Fightin’ Illini (23-11) vs.
#5 Virginia Tech Hokies (21-11)
Now that Virginia Tech no longer has to face NC State, this team could actually do some damage. The media hits the nail right on the head when they talk about the Hokies. They could be a Final Four caliber team when they are playing well. Or they could get bounced right here. Let’s just split the difference and call it a day.
Pick: Virginia Tech 73, Illinois 68